Electrical Energy Crises Electrical Energy Crises Remedial Measures, Remedial Measures, Emphasizing the hydel Emphasizing the hydel

power rolepower role

ByProf.Dr Engr.S.M.Bhutta

Energy the lifeline of economic development.Pakistan is the poorest of the poor as far as

energy consumption for capital is concerned.Per capita energy consumption, is one of the

indicator of Industrial development and quality of life of a country.

Pakistan has 14 Million BTU’s as compared to 92 Million BTU’s of Malaysia and 34 Million BTU’s for China.

Per Capita electrical consumption per year of Pakistan is 470kWh, & of Malaysia is 2,708 & of Singapore is 6,775 kWh

Electrical Power Generation Plan

2005

44903

35413

22353

17328

72169

101478

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028

MW

Electric Power Demand (2007-2025)

  2007 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030

Hydel 6474 7379 9071 17423 23948 23948

IPPs 6466 14205 22045 36345 58955 95355

Genco+KESC 6431 10082 10082 10082 10082 10082

Rental 150 846 846 846 846 846

Total 19521 32512 42044 64696 93831 130231

Generation Expansion Plan 2007-2030

130231

64696

93831

19521

3251242044

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028

MW

As per generation expansion plan system needs additions of 32512 MW and 93831 MW by years 2012 and by 2025, respectively.

Generation Expansion Plan (2007-2030)

2597 MW by 2015 and 17474 MW by 2025.  

2394823948

17423

9071

7379

6464

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028

MW

Hydropower Generation Expansion Plan

9051692

8352

6525

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

MW

2012 2015 2020 2025 2030

Hydropower Addition as Per Generation Expansion Plan

Sr. No.

Project RiverLocati

on

Installed Capacity

(MW)

Tentative completion month of the study

Present Status

Estimated Construction

Cost(US$)

1 Keyal Khwar

Keyal Khwar

Patan 122 Jun 2009 Feasibility Study completed. Detailed Design and Tender Documents initiated.

160 million

2 Kohala Kohala 1100 Aug 2009 Feasibility Study, Detailed Design and Tender Documents in progress.

1.7 billion

3 Dasu Dasu 4000 Mar 2011 Feasibility Study in progress.

6.5 billion

4 Lower Spat Gah

Spat Gah Patan 610 Dec 2010 Feasibility Study in progress.

700 million

5 Chor Nullah

Patan 621 Dec 2010 Feasibility Study in progress.

700 million

6 Bunji Gilgit 5400 Apr 2010 Feasibility Study, Detailed Design and Tender Documents in progress.

6 billion

7 Phandar Ghizar Gilgit 80 Sep 2009 Appointment of Consultants for Detailed Design and Tender Documents in process.

65 million

Hydropower projects under study.

8 Basho Basho Skardu 28 Sep 2009 Appointment of Consultants for Detailed Design and Tender Documents in process.

30 million

9 Lawi Shishi Darosh-Chitral

70 Jun 2011 Feasibility Study completed. PC-II for Detailed Design and Tender Documents initiated.

120 million

10 Thakot Thakot 2800 Jun 2013 PC-II for Feasibility Study, Detailed Design and Tender Documents under preparation.

5 billion

11 Patan Patan 2800 Jun 2015 PC-II for Feasibility Study, Detailed Design and Tender Documents under preparation.

5 billion

12 Golen Gol Golen Gol-Mastuj

Chitral-Mastuj

106 Nov 2008 Study for Detailed Design and Tender Documents in progress. Tendering progress initiated.

130 million

13 Harpo Harpo-Lungma

Skardu 33 PC-II for Detailed Design and Tender Documents prepared & ready for submission to Ministry of Water & Power.

40 million

14 Yulbo Skardu 3000 Desk study & field reconnaissance initiated

6 billion

TOTAL 20770

32.15 billion

Power Sector Installed Capacity of PakistanAn overview of Installed Capacity of Power Sector of the

country is as follows:WAPDA Thermal - 6441 MWHydel - 6464 MWNuclear - 462 MWIPPS (Thermal) - 6154 MWTotal - 19521 MWStudy of the utilization of various sources of power

development in the country concludes as follows:Gas - 35.7%Oil - 28.7%Coal - 0.3%Nuclear - 2.3%Hydel - 33%

Sr. No. Name of Station Installed capacity (MWs)

1 Tarbela 3478.002 Ghazi Barotha 1450.003 Mangla 1000.004 Warsak 240.005 Chashma 184.006 Rasul 22.007 Malakand 19.608 Dargai 20.009 Nandipur 13.8010 Shadiwal 13.5011 Chichoki Malian 13.2012 K.Garhi & Renala 5.1013 Chitral 1.0014 Satpara 4.86

Total 6464.00

Installed Hydropower StationsComponents of Hydropower System in Pakistan

Name of Project

Installed Capacity

(MW)Present Status

Kalabagh 3600 Feasibility & Tender Documents Completed

Basha 4500 FeasibilityCompleted & Detailed

Design in Progress

Munda 660 “

Total 8760

Public Sector Future Projects

Name of Project Capacity (MW)

Tentative Commissioning

New Bong Escape at 84 2010

Rajdhani at Punch (AJK)

132 2011

Matiltan at Swat 84 2012

Malakand III( ) 81 2008

Kotli 100 2011

Gulpur (AJK) 120 2012

Gabral – Kalam 101 2012

Hydropower Projects in Private Sector

N T D C( 1 )

DISCOs( 9 )

TRANSMISSION

POWER WING

GENCOs( 4 )

Thermal Power Stations

Thermal Power Stations

Grid Station/Trans. LinesOperation & Maintenance

Grid Station/Trans. LinesOperation & Maintenance

Area Electricity BoardsArea Electricity Boards

GENERATION DISTRIBUTION

WAPDA’s RESTRUCTURING

Total 19403 MW

Oil6497 MW

(34%)

Hydel6489 MW

(33%)

Nuclear452 MW

(2%)Coal

150 MW(1%)

Gas5815 MW

(30%)

OVERVIEW OF PAKISTAN POWER SECTOR

GENERATION PATTERN

N T D C( 1 )

DISCOs( 9 )

TRANSMISSION

POWER WING

GENCOs( 4 )

Thermal Power Stations

Thermal Power Stations

Grid Station/Trans. LinesOperation & MaintenanceGrid Station/Trans. LinesOperation & Maintenance

Distribution Companies Distribution Companies

GENERATION DISTRIBUTION

WAPDA’s RESTRUCTURING

WAPDA HYDEL(1)

There are several Barriers in the development of Hydel Power 1. Technology and Information Barriers. 2. Policy Barriers.3. Regulatory Barriers.

4. Institutional Barriers.5. Financial Barriers.6. Interconnection Barriers.7. Tariff. 8. Procedural impediments. 9. Risks

a. Hydrological Risksb. Geological Risks. c. Environment Risks.d. Miscellaneous.

Technology and information Barriers.

We lack knowledge & information about the technology of hydel power.

Need for education of hydel power technology not only for the students & engineers but also for general public

Strategy to achieve five E’sE----- EducationE----- EnergyE----- EmploymentE----- EquityE----- Enterprise

UET Taxila has taken a lead in starting the classes for post graduate students about Hydel Power to implement the most important “Es” of education in energy & for employment on equity basics for enterprises.

and Micro Hydel Plants

Suitable human resource development to fulfill the energy growth requirements

Oil, Gas and Coal

Renewable Energy resources

27

PAKISTAN’S HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL(SUMMARY)

Sr.No.

River/ Tributary Power(MW)

1. Indus River 35760

2. Tributaries of Indus (Northern Areas) of NWFP 5558

Sub Total (1+2) 41318

3. Jhelum River 3143

4, Kunhar River 1250

5. Neelum River & its Tributaries 2459

6. Poonch River 397

Sub Total (3+4+5+6) 7249

7. Swat River & its Tributaries 2388

8. Chitral River & its Tributaries 2282

Sub Total (7+8) 4670

9. Schemes below 50 MW on Tributaries 1290

TOTAL 54527

28

76.2

8.3

13.2

2.4

Indus River Basin

Jhelum River Basin

Swat & Chitral River

Small Hydel

PAKISTAN’S HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL

41816 MW

7249 MW

4528 MW

1290 MW

Swat & Chitral River

Jhelum River Basin

Small Hydel

Indus River Basin

29

DIAMER BASHA DAM MULTI-PURPOSE PROJECT

(PROFILE OF PROJECT UNDER EXECUTION)

Project Location Chilas on Indus River 315 km upstream of Tarbela Dam,

Height of Dam 272 m

Length of Dam 990 m

Gross Storage 8.1 Million-acre feet (MAF)

Live Storage 6.4MAF

Total Installed Capacity 4,500MW

Total Number of Units 12, each of 375 MW

Power Houses 2 (2,250 MW each)

Average Generation 18,000 Gwh/ annum

Construction Period 2009-2017

Present Status

•Feasibility Completed in 2007.

•Construction to start by mid 2009.

KALABAGH DAM PROJECT(Multi Purpose but Made Controversial)

1.NEED FOR KALABAGH DAM FOR IRRIGATION & ELECTRICTY

35 million acres land of Pakistan is irrigated by canals and tube wells. Canal with drawl increased from 67 to 105 MAF between the years 1947 and 1976 .Storage depleted by 5MAF by 2006.Situation of water shortage, threat of faminePakistan will have reached the stage of “acute water shortage”, where people fight for every drop of water.

NATIONAL LOSS IF KALABAGH DAM IS NOT BUILT

National food needs would be jeopardized as of population growth.

28% loss of storage capacity of the on-line reservoirs due to sedimentation

would result in shortage of committed irrigation supplies.

For implementation of Water Apportionment Accord 1991, new storages

are essential. In its absence it would give rise in bitter inter-provincial

disputes,

The Annual energy generated at Kalabagh would be equivalent to 20

million barrels of oil otherwise needed to produce thermal power.

Reservoir Live storage 6.1 MAF Retention level 915 ft SPD*Minimum reservoir level 825 ft SPD*Area at retention level 164 sq mile Main Dam Crest elevation 940 ft SPD*Crest width 50 ft Maximum height 260 ft Length 4,375 ft Installed Capacity 3600 MW Estimated Cost about US$6.2 Billion

APPREHENSION OF NWFP 1. flooding of Peshawar Valley including Nowshera

®Backwater effect of Kalabagh Lake would end about 10 miles

downstream of Nowshera.

2. Area of Mardan, Pabbi and Swabi plains would be

adversely affected creating water logging and salinity.

® Lowest ground levels at Mardan, Pabbi and Swabi areas are

970, 960 and 1000 feet above MSL respectively, as compared to

the maximum conservation level of 915 ft for Kalabagh operation

pattern of reservoir cannot block the land drainage and cause

water logging or salinity

4.Operation of Mardan SCARP would be adversely affected. ®The invert levels of main drains of Mardan SCARP are higher than reservoir elevation of 915 feet and the back water level in Kabul River and Kalapani Khwar. These drains would keep on functioning without any obstruction.5.Fertile cultivable land would be submerged. ®Total cultivable affected land under the reservoir is only 35,000 acres,(24,500 acres in Punjab 3,000 acres in NWFP).irrigated land would be only 3,000 acres (2,900 acres in Punjab and 100 acres in NWFP).6.Population Dislocation ® total population to be relocated is 120320 of which 78170 shall be from Punjab and 42150 from NWFP.

Resettlement of Affected Population will be properly compensated

APPREHENSIONS OF SINDH

No surplus water to fill Kalabagh reservoir

® Annual average of 35 MAF has escaped below Kotri to Sea.

® Kalabagh reservoir will be filled up by only 6MAF, which will

gradually be released to the provinces.

® Indus River System Authority (IRSA) has studied and

confirmed that sufficient water is available for further storage.

2. Anxiety the project would render Sindh into desert. ® Dams don’t consume water! These only store water during flood season and make it available on crop demand basis® It estimated that after Kalabagh, the canal withdrawals for Sindh would further increase by about 2.25 MAF.3.Outlets would be used to divert water from the reservoir ®The project design does not include any provision for diverting water from reservoir.® A telemetric system employing modern electronic technology has recently been installed at each barrage and other flow control points to monitor discharge in various canals commands, on real time basis under the auspices of Indus Water River System Authority (IRSA).

4.Cultivation in “Sailaba” areas would be effected ® Flood peaks above 300,000 cusecs would still be coming after construction of Kalabagh Dam, without detriment to the present agricultural practices, while large floods would be effectively controlled. This would, in fact, be conducive to installation of permanent tube wells to provide perennial irrigation facility in rive rain areas. The local farmer can look forward to having two crops annually instead of the present one crop. 5.Sea Water intrusion estuary would accentuate. ® Data shows that sea water intrusion, seems to be at its maximum even now, and it is unlikely to be aggravated further by Kalabagh Dam.

BENEFITS & CHALLENGES OF HYDEL POWER

DEVELOPMENT

•Hydel Potential of 54,000MW to be harnessed to avoid load shedding

•To reduce dependency on oil import

•Hydel power a stimulator for the socio-economic growth

•Highly reliable, cheap operation and maintenance charges are very low

•Able to respond to rapidly changing loads without loss of efficiency

•The plants have a long life so highly economical

•No nuisance of smoke, exhaust gases, soot, as environment, friendly

•Multipurpose to give additional advantages of irrigation

•Optimal Utilization of Indus River for development of Hydropower Projects in

cascade system

•Technology and Information Barriers & Risks of

Hydrology Geology etc

•Strategy for five E’s, Education, Energy,

Employment, Equity, Enterprise

•Attractive Policy & incentives required

•Upfront & Feed-in Tariff necessary

•Hydrological studies on all streams, to have

central data bank of hydrology

•Action Plan with targets for faithful

implementation

•Need to simplify and standardized Environment Assessment

•Institute for dissemination of technology, training and R&D

recommended

•Communication Infrastructure development up to the site is

required

•New approaches to financing, environmental and social issues,

barriers and their mitigations, to enhance public acceptance, and

to build consensus

•Need for technology transfer and & local technology

development

•Targeted and compatible human resource development in line

with energy generation profile

42

More Capital intensive compared to thermal

Longer gestation and construction Period

More Construction Risks (inflation, cost overruns, delays, geological surprises, floods, extreme weather, socio-political)

Higher Tariff in the initial years

No “off-the-shelf” or standard machines similar to thermal plants

Very site specific. Usually a number of options for developing each site

High percentage of civil works (70-75%) - difficult to estimate end costs

Operational Risks (hydrological risk, multiple uses, future developments/diversions)

Environmental & resettlement issues

Institutional set up at provincial level

Challenges in Hydropower ProjectsChallenges in Hydropower Projects

43

Generally located in remote area, lack of basic infrastructure (access roads, tunnels, electricity, telephone, colony, potable water, manpower)

Dedicated and expensive delivery infrastructure required

Extra thermal capacity for backup in low water season

Hydel Generation varies with availability of water & head

Limited International experience in Private Hydropower Projects

Specific Tariff & Security Documents issues

Project Agreements (IA, PPA) are different and complex

Clearances from the Provinces, Water Use Agreement etc.

Challenges in Hydropower ProjectsChallenges in Hydropower Projects