EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 1 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook Stéphane Isoard Scenarios and

1 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook

EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment

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Stéphane IsoardScenarios and Future Analysis

Workshop on ‘inventories and projections of GHG and NH3 emissions from agriculture in Central and Eastern Europe’

Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), DG JRC, Ispra23-24 June 2005

EEA agricultural outlooksEEA agricultural outlooks



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Rationales for EEA’s agricultural outlooksRationales for EEA’s agricultural outlooks

• EEA addresses policy options and long-term environmental impacts

• Synergies with the CAFE programme (nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4), ammonia (NH3), RAINS)

• Projections up to 2010 should incorporate recent CAP mid-term review / reform

• Supplement and take stock of the existing projections (EC-DG AGRI, FAO, FAPRI, IFPRI)

• Projections beyond 2010 based on various global or regional studies, overlooking the specificities of the EU; inconsistencies identified (e.g. macroeconomic assumptions, modelling frameworks and the granularity of results)

-> There was a need for long-term projections at EU level



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Approach to agriculture outlooksApproach to agriculture outlooks

• Driving forces: socio-economic scenarios from LREM baseline; no climate change assumptions; assumptions based on CAPRI model and CAP

• Models: CAPSIM (partial equilibrium model, economic accounts)

• Scope and timeframe: most of the EEA 31 member countries (1st time systematic and consistent; results at national level), to 2025.

• Output: cropping patterns (22 per country), livestock patterns (11 animal products per country), agricultural nutrient balances for N, P, K, GHGs linked to fertilizers and livestock

• Alternative scenarios: Liberalisation of animal product markets (Extended CAP reform), Best practices for fertiliser handling, A stronger EURO



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Key messagesKey messages

• Harvested land is expected to continue to be used mainly for fodder and the production of cereals (80% of the total area). Yields increase is expected to be the main source of production growth in Europe over the next 20 years.

Other arable crops

5%

Permanent crops & paddy

8%

Oilseeds & Pulses6%

Fodder42%

Cereals31%

Set aside & fallow land8%

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Fodder

Permanent crops &paddy

Other arable crops

Oilseeds & Pulses

Cereals

Area Yield Production %

Arable land (2020/2001)- Use of arable land (2020) - Sources of crop growth (2020/2001)



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The shift in demand from beef to poultry is expected to continue.

• + 20% in poultry demand (to 12.2 millions tonnes by 2020) is expected, at the expense mainly of beef (-6% to 6.5 millions tonnes)

• Pork meat demand expected to increase slightly to 20.2 millions t in 2020, still representing about 50% of the EU market.

• The relative share of the EU-15 and New-8 in the EU meat market in 2020 are expected to stay fairly stable, around 87% and 13% respectively.

• These expected developments reflect ongoing changes in diets.



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Key messagesKey messages• Mineral fertiliser use is

expected to increase considerably in the new Member States, although it remains lower than in the EU-15 in absolute terms; this may lead to increases in associated environmental pressures.

• EU-23 nutrient surpluses are expected to be moderately reduced in 2020.

Environmental pressures (2020/2001)- Use of fertilisers - Nutrient balances, ammonia losses and GHG

emissions

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55

Organic supply (N, P, K)

Potassium(K)

Phosphate(P)

Nitrogen(N)

New-8 EU-15 %%

-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Methane(CH4; animals)

Nitrous oxide(N2O; fertilizer)

Potassium(K)

Phosphate(P)

Ammonia losses(NH3)

Nitrogen(N)

New-8 EU-15 %



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Best practices for fertiliser handling could reduce significantly the environmental pressures.

• In 2020, N, P, K surpluses reduced compared with the baseline scenario by 25%, 70%, and 57% respectively.

• Gaseous emissions also reduced (ammonia losses by 51%, nitrous oxide naturally to a lesser extent (12%), while methane emissions are left unchanged due to the definition of the scenario).

• The use of organic fertilisers increases sharply (between 60% and 80%) in substitution of mineral fertilisers (reduction of 30% to 60%).



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The European Environment OutlookThe European Environment Outlook

• Outlooks developed for various environmental themes• GHG emissions and climate change• Air quality (CAFE)• Water stress• Water quality

• Key driving forces (socio/technico/economic, DG TREN)• Demography• Economy activity• Technological and sectoral developments• Consumption patterns• Energy and transport• Agriculture• Waste and material flows

Common set of assumptions for driving forces to ensure consistency and facilitate cross-cutting analysis



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Integrated analysisIntegrated analysis

• European greenhouse gas emissions are expected to meet short-term targets if all additional policies and measures planned so far are implemented

• European greenhouse gas emissions are expected to exceed long-term targets set to prevent harmful climate change

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EU-15 New-10 Per capita (EU-15) Per capita (New-10)

Mt CO2 eq/year t CO2 eq/cap/year

EU15 Kyoto Target (-8%)

NMS8 Kyoto Target (-7.8%)

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Global temperature change-'Baseline' Global temperature change-'Low emission scenario'

Degree Celsius

EU long-term sustainable target (6th EAP)



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Integrated analysisIntegrated analysis• Air pollution and its

impacts on health and ecosystems are expected to decline significantly

Excess of nitrogen deposition (2000 and 2030 for the MFR scenario)

Emissions of air pollutants (Baseline and Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR) scenarios, index 100 in 2000)

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PM2.5

PM10

NH3

SO2

NMVOC

NOX

MFR (2030) Baseline (2030) Baseline (2010) NEC ceiling (2010) Year 2000

Index



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• The recent enlargement of the European Union is expected to provide both opportunities for and threats to the environment

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55

Organic supply (N, P, K)

Potassium(K)

Phosphate(P)

Nitrogen(N)

New-8 EU-15 %%

-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Methane(CH4; animals)

Nitrous oxide(N2O; fertilizer)

Potassium(K)

Phosphate(P)

Ammonia losses(NH3)

Nitrogen(N)

New-8 EU-15 %

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Use of fertilisers, Nutrient balances, ammonia losses and GHG emissions (2020/2001)



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• The Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive is expected to reduce significantly the overall discharge of nutrients from point sources

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UWWTDirective

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UWWTDirective

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Primary Secondary Tertiary Without treatment

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Group 2 (EU-15)Group 3 (EU-15)

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Current situation UWWT Directive

kg N / inh. / yr

Discharges of nitrogen and phosphorous from wastewater treatment plants



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Gaps in the analysisGaps in the analysis

• Spatial analysis (forthcoming CAPRI-DYNASPAT project, Bonn University & JRC-IES)

• Comprehensive uncertainty analysis

• Macro-economic implications/feedbacks of env. policies

• Diffuse sources and biodiversity impacts



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Considerations for developing projectionsConsiderations for developing projections• Common misunderstanding with regard to models: (1) ‘a

complete model is necessary’; (2) ‘I believe the results of the model’ (‘outputs’ = ‘inputs’)

• Since most modelling tools are extremely time-consuming and financially demanding (1-5 million EUROS for a full model?)…

Some guidelines for projections, whether these are based on simple or complex models, or a combination of experts and some modelling tools…

1. Methodology• make it clear and transparent.• Iterations – Interactions between stakeholders, responsible

authorities and modellers are key.• Simple methodologies are respectable! Real value of models =

take care of complex systems + get a sense of the system dynamics, i.e. marginal assessment.



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Considerations for developing scenariosConsiderations for developing scenarios2. Inputs and outputs

• formally validated in a series of iterations – Checking on key relationships (spatial, technical, economical - FAO)

• Consistency with socio-economic context (e.g. pop., GDP, policies) – Inventories are about ‘known’ tech. parameters, projections are about ‘unknown’ socio-economic and structural factors affecting the agriculture sector.

3. Take stock of former projections (e.g. CAPSIM)

4. Assess uncertainty: scenario developments (focus on main uncertainties)

5. Stakeholders consultation (not only experts) - at the outset of the exercise (driving forces), during the project (obvious) and at the end (comparability, dissemination)

6. Dissemination (e.g. CDs – XML show)



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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION.

PLEASE FEEL FREE TO TAKE A CD WITH YOU.



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The conceptThe concept

• Highlight the interactions between and implications of sectoral developments and environmental issues. Link to past and ongoing Commission exercises when appropriate.

• Exploring sustainability of baseline projections (2020-2030), alternative scenarios and variants (up to 2100).

• Provide a coherent quantitative assessment as feasible, supplemented by qualitative analyses where needed.

• Key messages / early warnings for policy-makers.



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Integrated quantitative assessmentIntegrated quantitative assessment

Water stress and water quality outlooks

Models WaterGAP (water use and availability), A model on nutrients from UWWT plants

Agriculture outlooks

Models CAPSIM (sectoral model)

Climate change and air pollution outlooks

Models PRIMES (energy & transport) POLES (energy & transport) TIMER/FAIR (GHGs emissions) RAINS (air pollution) IMAGE (climate change) Euromove (ecosystem composition)

Waste and material flows outlooks

Models A macro-econometric waste & material flows model

Results also used as input to other Technical Reports

'Household Consumption'EEA Technical Report

'Sustainable use of natural resources'

EEA Technical Report

'Halting the loss of biodiversity'EEA Technical Report

'Environmental aspects of enlargement'

Advisory Group

'Europe’s Environment & the Global Dimension'

Multimedia

'Environment & health'EEA Technical Report

'Climate change & sustainable energy'

EEA Technical Report State of the Environment and Outlook report

2005

'European Environment Outlook'EEA Technical Report



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QA, consultation and disseminationQA, consultation and dissemination• QA and consultation processes

• Synergies with the EC using many of the same modelling tools• Advisory Group• Contributors and EEA Internal Reviews• European Commission and a NFPs/NRCs Consultation• SMT review• MB review (ongoing)

• Dissemination of results• EEA report + web posting• Oral and poster presentations in conferences (articles)• Paper for academic journals• Outlooks used in related projects (e.g. EC-JRC)



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• The more fragmented European society is expected to increase some environmental pressures

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EEA-31 EU-15 New-10

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Number of households (EU-15) Number of households (New-10)Number of persons per household (EU-15) Number of persons per household (New-10)

Index (1990 = 100) units

Population development 1990-2030



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• European greenhouse gas emissions are expected to meet short-term targets if all additional policies and measures planned so far are implemented

• European greenhouse gas emissions are expected to exceed long-term targets set to prevent harmful climate change

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Global temperature change-'Baseline' Global temperature change-'Low emission scenario'

Degree Celsius

EU long-term sustainable target (6th EAP)



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Approach to air and climate change Approach to air and climate change outlooksoutlooks

Driving forces: socio-economic scenarios from LREM/CAFE baselinealternative ‘SEP scenario’ and scenario ‘variants’

Models:transport & energy: PRIMES, POLES, (TREMOVE, SCENES)emissions: TIMER, FAIRair & climate change: RAINS, IMAGE

Output:emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O, HFC, PFC, SF6, SO2,PM10, …) climate change (temperature, precipitation)impacts (ecosystem composition, growing season)



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Approach to agriculture outlooksApproach to agriculture outlooks

Driving forces: socio-economic scenarios from LREM/CAFE baselineno climate change assumptionsfertilizer consumption calibrated to match EFMA projectionsadditional assumptions based on CAPRI model and CAP

Models:CAPSIM (partial equilibrium model, economic accounts)

Output:cropping patterns (22 per country)livestock patterns (11 animal products per country)agricultural nutrient balances for N, P, Kgreenhouse gas emissions linked to fertilizers and livestock



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Approach to waste outlooksApproach to waste outlooks

Driving forces: socio-economic scenarios from LREM/CAFE baselineassumptions

Models:macroeconomic model developed by EEA ETC Waste & Material Flows

Output:waste: municipal, industrial, C&D, packaging, paper, glass

material flows: minerals, biomass extraction and fossil fuels



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Approach to water outlooksApproach to water outlooks

Driving forces: socio-economic scenarios from LREM/CAFE baselineclimate change scenarios from IMAGE and PRIMES modelsadditional structural & technological change assumptions

Models:WaterGAP (integrated water quantity model)simple model on urban water treatment plants

Output:water stress, water availability, water use (by domestic, electricity, industry, agriculture sectors) - per 0.5° gridwaste water from households, waste water treatment, nutrient discharges from treatment plants



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Alternative scenarios and variantsAlternative scenarios and variants• Air and climate change:

• Air: Maximum Feasible Reductions• CC: Sustainable Emission Pathway, low economic growth,

accelerated diffusion of renewables, accelerated diffusion and decommissioning of nuclear

• Agriculture:• Liberalisation of animal product markets (Extended CAP

reform), Best practices for fertiliser handling, A stronger EURO

• Waste and material flows:• Low economic growth, sustainable emission pathway (for fossil

fuels only), Landfill Directive (biodegradable waste)

• Water stress:• Sustainable emission pathway, non-convergence of per capita

water use in the New-10



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EEA’s environmental scenarios portalEEA’s environmental scenarios portal

Web Portal

• EEA Reports

• Links to• institutions• networks• studies

• Resources

• News

• Glossary

• Bibliographyhttp://scenarios.ewindows.eu.org

Documents

EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 1 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook Stéphane Isoard Scenarios and