Economic Analysis of Challenges in Development of High-Value Agriculture: The Case of Livestock

Diseases in Punjab

PI: Dr. Muhammad Ashfaq (ashfaq9@hotmail.com)

Co- PI: Dr. Ghulam Muhammad

Research Associate: Shamsheer ul Haq

Sequence of presentation

Introduction/Background

Methodology

Preliminary Results

Future Plan

Introduction/Background

Agriculture provide 45 percent employment to labor force

and contribute about 21 percent to the GDP of Pakistan.

Livestock contributes 55 percent in agriculture value added

and 11.6 percent in GDP

About 33-36 million populations is engaged in livestock

raising (Bilal, 2004).

Punjab is the major contributor (> 70 percent) in milk

production followed by Sindh

Years Buffalo Cattles Goats2001-02 24.03 22.85 50.912002-03 24.75 23.30 52.762003-04 25.51 23.75 54.672004-05 26.29 24.21 56.662005-06 27.33 29.56 53.782006-07 28.14 30.67 55.242007-08 29.00 31.82 56.742008-09 29.88 33.02 58.272009-10 30.84 34.31 59.972010-11 31.70 35.60 61.502011-12 32.70 36.90 63.10

Table 1.2: Livestock Population in Pakistan(Million No)

Source: Government of Pakistan, 2012

Rank Country Production 1 India 110.042 United States 85.853 China 40.554 Pakistan 34.365 Russia 32.566 Germany 28.697 Brazil 27.718 France 24.219 New Zealand 15.2110 United Kingdom

Source: FAO, 201013.23

Table: Top Ten Milk Producers in the World (Million Tons per Year)

Problem statementIn Pakistan the milk productivity is low

due to various factors. One of the important factor is the incidence of diseases.

The economic losses that farmers have to bear consist of extra expenditures and reduction in income due to these diseases.

By controlling the damages and economic losses caused by diseases, the production of livestock products could be increased.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the incidence and mortality rate of major

diseases

To assess the share of livestock income in the total

income of the farm

To assess the economic losses associated with major

diseases (Parturient hemoglobin urea, Foot and mouth

disease, Mastitis and Tick’s infestation)

To give policy recommendations

Methodology

Well structured and pretested

questionnaire was used to collect the

required data.

All five tehsils of district Faisalabad were

included

Three villages from each tehsil and ten

respondents from each village were

selected randomly

Total sample size was 150 livestock

farmers

Name of Selected Tehsils and VillagesTehsil Names Village Names/No. No. of Respondents

FaisalabadGaffabad 10

Gharee 10

Chakaira 10

Samundri213 G. B. 10

217 G. B. 10

Bhulpar 10

Tandlianwala456 G. B. 10

454 G. B. 10

541 G. B. 10

Jaranwala26 R. B. 10

Ram wali 10

38 R. B. 10

Chak Jhumra133 R. B. 10

190 R. B. 10

191 R. B. 10

Total 150

Cont….

Categorization of the farmers

Livestock farmers were categorized into three categories on the

basis of the adult animals (Buffaloes and Cows); Moaeen and

Babar (2006)

Small Farmers (1-3 Animals)

Medium Farmers (4-6 Animals)

Large Farmers (> 6 Animals)

Cont….

Gross income from livestock

Gross income from livestock will be estimated as

Gross livestock income = TI + IS

IT =Total income from milk

IS = Income from the sale of the animals and products

Gross Income from crops

=

TPi = Total production of ith crop at farm

PCi= Price of one unit of ith crop

Cont….

Gross Farm Income

Gross farm income = Gross income from crops + Gross income from Livestock

Share of Livestock Income in the Total Farm Income

• Share of livestock income = (Gross livestock income/Gross farm income) * 100

Cont….

Gross Margins

For calculating the margins for the livestock sector;

GM = TR - VC

Where;

GM = Gross Margin

TR = Total Revenue

VC = Total variable cost

Cont….Estimation of the Milk Loss

Total milk loss due to diseases = Milk loss during sick time + Milk loss till recovery + Permanent milk loss

Value of milk loss = Total milk loss due to disease * Unit price of milk

Discarded milk loss

Value of Discarded Milk Loss = Quantity of milk discarded * Time period of milk discarded * Price of unit milk

Cont….

Veterinary or Treatment CostVeterinary or treatment cost =Days of illness * per day treatment cost of animal

Losses due to Abortion

Value of calf loss = (calf weight + 300-400 gm weight gain per day * number of days delayed) * Market value of beef

Loss in Weight of Affected Animals

Value of live weight loss = average live weight (Kg/head) * decrease in live weight (%) * Price of meat

Cont….

Total losses due to Mastitis = Value of milk loss + Veterinary or Treatment Cost + Value of Discarded Milk Loss + Loss in sale value

Total losses due to Hemoglobin urea = Value of milk loss + Veterinary or Treatment Cost + Losses due to Abortion + Loss due to Death of Animals

Total losses due to FMD = Value of milk loss + Veterinary or Treatment Cost + Losses due to Abortion + Loss in Weight of Affected Animals + Loss due to Death of Animals

Total losses due to Tick’s infestation = Value of milk loss + Veterinary or Treatment Cost + Loss in Weight of Affected Animals

Cont….

Morbidity Rate =

Mortality Rate =

Case Fatality Rate =

Economic Losses =

AccomplishmentsReview of literatureQuestionnaire developmentPre-testingData collectionData entry, cleaning, preliminary analysis

Interim Report Writing

Preliminary Results

Distribution of Farmers

Farmer’s Categories

Frequency Percentage

Small 72 48.00

Medium 36 24.00

Large 42 28.00

Total 150 100.00

Preliminary Results

General

Information

Farm Size Groups

Small

Farmers Medium Farmers Large Farmers Overall

Age (Yrs) 42.38 42.94 40.81 42.07

Livestock

Farming

Experience (Yrs)

18.97 19.00 18.50 18.85

HH head

Schooling Years6.54 7.47 6.36 6.71

Family Members

(No) 7.74 9.19 11.29 9.08

Socio-Economic characteristics of Respondents

Cont….

Family

Type

Farm Categories

Small Medium Large Overall

Nuclear 71.83 59.65 31.82 61.33

Joint 23.94 29.82 31.82 27.33

Extended 4.23 10.53 36.36 11.33

Distribution of the Farmers According to the Family Type (Percent)

Cont…

Land

Category

Farm Size GroupsSmall

Farmers

Medium

Farmers

Large

FarmersOverall

Area owned 3.39 8.40 8.77 6.10

Rented in 2.08 3.40 11.26 4.97

Rented out 0.11 1.67 0.14 0.49

Shared in 0.28 0.42 0.24 0.30

Operational

Holding5.61 10.66 20.13 10.89

Farm Size –Acres

Cont….

Type of

Animals

Farm Size Groups

Small

Farmers

Medium

Farmers Large Farmers Overall

Adult Buffalos 1.31 3.53 15.40 5.79

Adult Cows 0.64 1.47 4.62 1.95

Adult Goats 0.92 1.89 3.60 2.45

Heifer Buffalos 0.69 1.56 3.69 1.74

Heifer Cows 0.29 0.69 1.93 0.85

Young Goats 0.08 0.50 1.44 1.07

Bulls 0.57 1.11 1.19 0.87

Calves 1.28 2.92 9.48 3.97

Buck 0.35 0.67 1.26 0.68

Animals Inventory (Average)

Cont….

Type of

Animals

Farm Size Groups

Small Farmers Medium Farmers Large Farmers Overall

Buffalo 232.89 233.33 236.43 234.11

Cow 259.69 246.88 260.57 256.65

Milking Period of Animals (Average Days)

Area of Animal’s Farm (Marlas)

Farm Size Groups

Small Farmers Medium Farmers Large Farmers Overall

Area 9.54 21.96 38.13 20.60

Cont….

Source

Farm Size Groups

Small

Farmers

Medium

Farmers

Large

Farmers Overall

Buffaloes

Artificial 10.91 13.72 9.09 11.72

Natural 89.09 86.28 90.91 88.28

Cows

Artificial 43.33 64.1 68.42 57.95

Natural 56.67 35.9 31.58 42.05

Source of Breeding Service (Percent)

Cont….

Water

Source

Farm Size Groups

Small

Farmers

Medium

Farmers

Large

Farmers

Overall

Canal 0.00 5.26 0.00 2.01

Hand pump 28.57 14.04 22.73 22.15

Motor pump 48.57 50.00 57.89 52.35

Canal +

Motor pump8.57 14.04 13.64 11.41

Water course

/ Tube well14.29 8.77 13.64 12.08

Drinking Water Source for Animals (Percent)

Future PlanData analysisFor assessing the incidence, mortality and case fatality

rate of each diseaseFor assessing the share of livestock income in the total

farm incomeFor calculating the economic losses due to diseasesReport writing Presentation of the project resultsPaper(s) writing for publication

THANKS