ECMWF Forecasting System - Overview. Background/Establishment 1969Expert group in meteorology propose ‘European Meteorological Computing Centre’ 1975ECMWF

ECMWF Forecasting System - Overview

Background/Establishment

1969 Expert group in meteorology propose‘European Meteorological Computing Centre’

1975 ECMWF convention in force

1978 Headquarters building completed

Start of operational activities

1978 Installation of first computer system (CRAY 1-A)

1983 T63 (320 km) / L16 spectral model

1991 T213 (95 km) / L31 spectral model

1993 Ensemble prediction system

1996 Fujitsu VPP300-C and VPP700-46

1997 4D-Var data assimilation

2000 Fujitsu VPP 5000/100, T511/L60 model

2001 Web site enhanced: RMDCN extended to 33 States:

2002 IBM p690 HPCF and new Data Handling System installed

2006 T799 (25 km)

2010 T1279 (16 km)

2010 New convention has been entered into force


Belgium Ireland PortugalDenmark Italy SwitzerlandGermany Luxembourg FinlandSpain The Netherlands SwedenFrance Norway TurkeyGreece Austria United Kingdom

Co-operation agreements or working arrangements with:Czech Republic Lithuania ACMADCroatia Montenegro ESAEstonia Morocco EUMETSAT Hungary Romania WMOIceland Serbia JRC Israel Slovakia CTBTOLatvia Slovenia CLRTAP


• Operational forecasting up to 15 days ahead (including ocean waves)

• R & D activities in forecast modelling

• Data archiving and related services

• Operational forecasts for the coming month and season

• Advanced NWP training

• Provision of supercomputer resources

• Assistance to WMO programmes

• Management of Regional Meteorological Data Communications Network (RMDCN)

Main Objectives

COUNCIL18 Member States

Organisation of ECMWF

DIRECTOR-GeneralProf. Alan Thorpe

UK

Meteorological Division

Meteorological Division

Computer Division

Computer Division

OperationsOperations ResearchResearchAdministrationAdministration

DataDivision

DataDivision

Model DivisionModel Division Probabilistic Forecastingand Diagnostics DivisionProbabilistic Forecastingand Diagnostics Division

FinanceCommittee7 Members

FinanceCommittee7 Members

Technical AdvisoryCommittee18 Members

Technical AdvisoryCommittee18 Members

Scientific AdvisoryCommittee12 Members

Scientific AdvisoryCommittee12 Members

Policy AdvisoryCommittee

7-18 Members

Policy AdvisoryCommittee

7-18 Members

Advisory Committee of Co-operating States

12 Members

Advisory Committee of Co-operating States

12 Members

Advisory Committee on Data Policy

8-31 Members

Advisory Committee on Data Policy

8-31 Members

Germany 20.20%

Denmark1.87%Belgium2.71%

United Kingdom16.43%

Turkey 2.38%

Sweden 2.66%

Finland 1.42%

Switzerland 2.89%Portugal

1.29%

Austria 2.16%

Norway 2.13%

Netherlands 4.61%

Italy12.66%

Ireland1.23%

Greece1.74%

France 15.46%

Spain 7.95%Main Revenue 2010

Member States’contributions £36,703,200

Co-operating States’contributions £861,600

Other Revenue £1,275,000

Total £38,839,800

GNI Scale 2009–2011

Luxembourg0.23%

Main Expenditure 2010Staff £15,199,900Leaving Allowances& Pensions £3,298,600ComputerExpenditure £15,809,000Buildings £3,647,700Supplies £884,600

Total £38,839,800

Budget


ECMWF is world leading centre in medium range forecasting

Atmosphere global forecasts Forecast to ten days from 00 and 12 UTC at 16 km resolution and 91 levels 50 ensemble forecasts to fifteen days from 00 and 12 UTC at 50 km resolution

Ocean wave forecasts Global forecast to ten days from 00 and 12 UTC at 28 km resolution European waters forecast to five days from 00 and 12 UTC at 11 km resolution

51-member ensemble prediction system To day 15 from 00 and 12 UTC (to day 32 on Thursdays at 00 UTC) 32 km resolution up to day 10, then 65 km 62 vertical levels 12 UTC with persisted SST up to day 15, 00 UTC with persisted SST up to

day 10 and then coupled ocean model Coupled ocean has horizontally varying resolution (⅓ to 1°), 9 vertical levels. Coupled wave model

Seasonal forecasts: Atmosphere-ocean coupled model Global forecasts to seven months:

atmosphere: 1.125° resolution, 62 levelsocean: horizontally-varying resolution (⅓° to 1°), 29 levels

ECMWF Forecast Products

• Reanalyses (ERA-15, ERA-40, ERA-Interim)

• Boundary conditions for Limited Area Models (LAM)

• Data Services

– Provision of real-time data

– Provision of archived data and products

– Provision of software


• Training Courses

– Numerical methods

– Data assimilation & use of satellite data

– Parametrization of diabatic processes

– Predictability, diagnostics and long-range forecasting

– Use and interpretation of ECMWF products

– Computer user training courses

• Seminars

– Research Seminars (annually)

– Meteorological Operational Systems (biennial)

– Large-scale Computing (biennial)

• Workshops


Current computer configuration

June 2010



RMDCN

RMDCN Connections

RMDCN Global Coverage (March 2010)



day

N Hemisphere Lat 20.0 to 90.0 Lon -180.0 to 180.0(12mMA = 12 months moving average)

Correlation coefficent of forecast anomalygeopotential 500hPa

ECMWF forecast verification 12UTC

1980198119821983198419851986 1987198819891990 19911992199319941995 1996199719981999 2000200120022003 2004200520062007 200820094

5

6

7

8

9

10

score reaches 60%

score 12mMA reaches 60%

Z500,N.Hem, T+72


Tropical cyclone position error(mean of 365 days ending 14 July)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120

forecast range (hours)

Err

or

(km

)

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Verification of TC predictions from the operational deterministic forecast for 12-month periods ending on 14 July. The latest period, 15 July 2008 to 14 July 2009, is shown in red. Within each year, the sample size is the same at each forecast step (but the number of cyclones varies from year to year).

ECMWF Products – for NMHSs of WMO members

• Services

Conventional GTS, ftp data downloads, WEB plots, EUMETCast

• Data resolution 0.5° × 0.5° global, (tropic belt for vorticity and divergence parameter)

• “Essential” ProductsMSL pressure

850 hPa temperature and winds

500 hPa geopotential height

EPS mean and standard deviation of all above parameters

Validity: Analysis, 24, 48, 72, 96, 120, 144, 168, 192, 216, 240 hour forecasts

• FrequencyTwice per day, based on 00 and 12 UTC data

• FormatWMO FM92-Ext GRIB edition 2 http://www.ecmwf.int/about/wmo_nmhs_access/conditions.html

ECMWF Products – for NMHSs of WMO members• “Additional” Products

700, 500, 200 hPa winds

850, 700 hPa Relative Humidity

700 hPa vorticity and divergence

Significant wave height, wave mean period, wave mean direction

EPS event probabilities total precipitation >10/20 mm, 10m wind gusts >15/25m/s, significant wave height > 2/4/6/8m

Seasonal System sea surface temperature anomalies

Tropical Cyclone Tracks (WMO FM-92 BUFR)

• Products only available as WEB Products

Extreme Forecast Indices

EPSgrams (site specific forecasts of near surface weather parameters up to 10 days)

Data sources for the ECMWF Meteorological Operational System (EMOS)

Satellite data used by ECMWF

Operationalmodel levels

(91-level model)


Operational model grid


Model grids for T799 (25 km) and T1279 (16 km)



The observations are used to correct errors in the short forecast from the previous analysis time.

Every twelve hours we process 6 – 10,000,000 observations to correct the 80,000,000 numbers that define the model’s virtual atmosphere.

This is done by a careful 4-dimensional interpolation in space and time of the available observations; this operation takes as much computer power as the 10-day forecast.

Starting Forecasts


Importance of observations(Analysis) for medium range forecast

Data assimilation

THE FORECAST is continuously compared against a variety of meteorological measurements. If we imagine the whole world encapsulated by a grid, the grid points are the locations where the forecast is computed. The meteorological measurements can be taken in any location in the grid.

A short-range forecast (blue ‘F’) provides an estimate of the atmosphere that can be compared with the measurements (yellow crosses). The two kinds of information are combined to form a corrected representation of the atmosphere (green ticks). Corrections are computed and applied twice per day. This automatic process is called ‘Data Assimilation’.


Thanks for your attention…

Documents

ECMWF Forecasting System - Overview. Background/Establishment 1969Expert group in meteorology propose ‘European Meteorological Computing Centre’ 1975ECMWF