ECASA WP4Assessing the applicability (efficiency, cost effectiveness, robustness, practicality, feasibility, accuracy, precision, etc) of selected indicators and developing operational tools, e.g. models, establishing the functional relationship between environment and aquaculture activities.

1.Assess the efficiency, cost effectiveness, robustness, reliability, practicality, feasibility, accuracy, and precision of aquaculture-environment interaction indicators identified in WP2 and WP3.

2.Develop operational tools, especially models, which capture the functional relationship between environment and aquacultural activities, and which embody the chosen indicators. The chosen model set will include stand-alone tools currently fit for purpose, developments of existing models to increase applicability and robustness and hybridisations of existing models to enhance predictive power.

WP4 objectives

WP4 Deliverable

• "Toolpack" report on the merits of the chosen indicator set including best methodologies for collection, analysis and interpretation, and on the recommended set of models, including criteria for choice of models depending on spatial scale and farm size, and guidance on the use of models to estimate site and water body assimilative capacity and sustainable production, and on the reliability of model predictions.

WP4 Description of work1.Identification of the most appropriate indicators

(taken from WP2 and WP3) and models for testing with the available data;

2.Allocation of testing tasks to the most appropriate partners or groups of partners;

3.Testing [with existing data] of indicators and models against pre-agreed criteria of scientific robustness and practical utility; this will include comparisons of models with similar aims and scales;

4.Development of a consensus on which set of indicators and models should be proposed for field validation in WP5; this will include new and hybrid models developed from those tested in step 3;

5.A re-iteration of the testing procedure using newly collected data from WP5;

6.Publication of a full report on the sets of best indicators and best models.

WP4 Milestones

1.Identification of first-stage set of indicators and models (month 12 - 30 Nov 05 - from WPs 2 and 3);

2.Completion of first-stage testing of indicators and models and identification of set to be proposed for field validation (month 18 - 30 May 06);

3.Reporting of conclusions concerning the best indicators and models (month 32);

4. Completion of the “toolpack” for implementation of the ecosystem approach to aquaculture (month 36).

WP4 - today’s agenda - and outcomes

• theory for indicators and models

• discuss and agree criteria of scientific robustness and practical utility - and specify in model descriptions

• model description template - agreed; to comprise 2-4 pages; partners to describe own models (and others that they consider strongly relevant

• intellectual property matters - specify IP resistrictions in model descriptions

• begin to make inventory to take stock of existing models & capability, and identify gaps - deadline 31 August 2005

• task list - who does what during next 6 months - all (relevant) partners submit model descriptions, continue with model development (and report monthly)

Models and Indicators

capturing the functional relationship

empirical - e.g. linear regressiontheoretical - e.g. FjordEnv

also: laboratory-organism-small population scale?

global-socio-economic scale?

a conceptual socio-economic ‘meta’model, with DPSIR (from

OAERRE)

D

P S

I

R

natural science model

Criteria for scientific

robustness and practical utility

Criteria of ...

• useful indicators are easy to measure and interpret;

• useful models are easy to set-up, run, and interpret;

• easy (a) relates to the abilities of a typical farm manager or water quality regulator, and (b) implies cost-efficient.

practical utility:

scientific robustness:

• models as refutable hypotheses - test over a variety of sites;

• criteria for acceptance/rejection in a test.

Example - ECE

model solution: Seq =So+(si/EV))

state variable: nutient conc., S

pressure indicator: ECE =(si/EV))

test: compare observed S and modelled Seq from range of sites

VE SeqSo

input: siamount/dayexists, widely used;

scale: zone B

observed S

modelled Seq

ROBUSTNESS?

modeltestsOK

modelfails

errors in measurements?uncertainity in boundary ?

TASKS

1.Identification of first-stage set of indicators and models - including gaps that we should fill - (month 12 - 30 Nov 05 - indicators from WPs 2 and 3);

2.Completion of first-stage testing of indicators and models and identification of set to be proposed for field validation (month 18 - 30 May 06);

Targets (milestones)

1.Identification of the most appropriate indicators (taken from WP2 and WP3) and models for testing with the available data - model description template agreed, to be circulated in early July; submit descriptions by 31 Aug 2005 ;

2.Allocation of testing tasks to the most appropriate partners or groups of partners - partners to continue developing and testing their own models, and reporting this work monthly;

3.Testing [with existing data] of indicators and models against pre-agreed criteria of scientific robustness and practical utility; this will include comparisons of models with similar aims and scales - general criteria discussed today, specific criteria to be included in model descriptions

Tasks - for next 12 months

Inventory -WP4 model talks at Dec 04 meeting, Oban

• Chris Cromey - MERAMOD (Eastern Med- bass and bream) and DEPOMOD (North Atlantic- salmonid) modelling of particulate discharges and benthic effects from fin fish operations

• Julien Mader - TRIMODENA

• Helén Andersson - Anders Stigebrandt’s model ”FjordEnv”

• Celine Laurent - model for nutrient assimilative capacity of sea-lochs

• John Iceley for João Gomes Ferierra - models of Ria Formosa

• Tony Hawkins - shellfish model

• Paul Tett for Tarzan Legovič - modelling by partner 15are there more? are there gaps?

Models and scales - from Dec 04 meeting

•local scale (zone A) - DEPOMOD etc, TRIMODENA, TH shellfish/dispersion

•water body scale (zone B) - FJORDENV, Creran AC model, ASSETS/NEEA

•regional scale (zone C) - [ERSEM etc], ~JGF Ria Formosa model, TH Sungo bay ecosystem/shellfish model

farm→environment environment→farmshellfish finfish

do we have models for all categories ?

AdvertismentsECASA related positions at Napier

•1 position for a biological oceanographic modeller (either post-graduate or post-doctoral): 30 k€/year

•2 PhD studentships for work connected with marine phytoplankton: 17 k€/year + fees

http://www.lifesciences.napier.ac.uk/research/Envbiofiles/EBjobs.htm

‘Undesirable Disturbance’ - see http://www.lifesciences.napier.ac.uk/

research/Envbiofiles/EUD.htm