East Greenwich Town Council 2019-12-12آ  East Greenwich Town Council Joint Meeting with East Greenwich

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  • East Greenwich Town Council Joint Meeting with East Greenwich School Committee Monday, December 16, 2019 at 7:00 PM Swift Community Center, 121 Peirce Street, East Greenwich, RI 02818

    Agenda The East Greenwich Town Council will meet on Monday, December 16, 2019 at 7:00 PM, in the Swift Community Center, 121 Peirce Street, East Greenwich, RI 02818.

    (Any matter listed on this agenda is subject to discussion and a vote by the Town Council.) 1. Call to Order and Pledge of Allegiance to the American Flag 2. Acknowledgements 2.a Commendation for Dr. Victor Mercurio, Superintendent of East Greenwich Public

    Schools, for 10 years of dedicated service. 3. New Business:

    (Any items that have not been previously discussed or acted upon.)

    3.a Milone and MacBroom Enrollment & Demographic Presentation 2019.12.16 East_Greenwich_Enrollment_Projections_12-2019.pdf 3.b Statutory pre-budget consultation between East Greenwich School Committee and East

    Greenwich Town Council for review of revenue and expenditure projections and discussion on issues affecting preparation of the school budget per RIGL 16-2-21.2 (d)

    RIDE Projected Education Aid for FY2021 FY 2020-2022 Fiscal Impact Statement NEARI/NEA Teacher's Union Capital Improvement Plans, Capital Reserve Structure and RIDE Reimbursement

    2019.12.16 FY-21-State-Requested-Aid-11-15-19.pdf 2019.12.16 Fiscal Impact Statement 2020-2022.pdf 4. Public Comments:

    (This is an additional opportunity for members of the audience to provide public comment. Comments shall be limited to five (5) minutes per person with a maximum of thirty (30) minutes for all items. Speakers may not yield their time to others.)

    5. Adjournment

    1

    https://legistarweb-production.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/attachment/pdf/492974/2019.12.16_East_Greenwich_Enrollment_Projections_12-2019.pdf https://legistarweb-production.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/attachment/pdf/493508/2019.12.16_FY-21-State-Requested-Aid-11-15-19.pdf https://legistarweb-production.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/attachment/pdf/493507/2019.12.16_Fiscal_Impact_Statement_2020-2022.pdf

  • This agenda was posted on December 12, 2019 in accordance with RIGL 42-46-6. Individuals requesting interpreter services for the hearing impaired must notify the Town Clerk's office at (401) 886-8604 via RI Relay #711 (800-745-5555 TY) or in writing, at least seventy-two (72) hours in advance of the hearing date.

    2

  • East Greenwich Public Schools

    School Enrollment and Demographic Study

    December 2019

    3

  • Introduction

     Comprehensive Demographic and Housing Analysis  Enrollment Trends  Enrollment Projections

    2

    4

  • East Greenwich Public SchoolsEast Greenwich Total Population Change

    East Greenwich’s total population decreased by

    less than 1% between 2010 and 2017

    2017: 13,094 2010: 13,187

    5

  • Age Composition

     East Greenwich is aging due to large Baby Boomer age groups (age 55 to 69)  However, estimated increase in children between 5-14 years old  Low population of young working age

    4

    Source: ACS 2006-2010, ACS 2013-2017: B01001

    6

  • Births  Sustained high birth

    rates from 2013 to 2016 (correspond to incoming 2018-19 to 2021-22 K cohorts

     However, significant drop off in 2017 and 2018

     Several peaks and valleys in long-term trend, as births vary from year to year, rarely exceeding a difference greater than 25 births between years until 2017

    5

    Source: RIDPH 2017, 2018 births are preliminary

    124

    95

    121 119 110 113

    98 106

    115 100

    112

    92 97

    116 99

    121 119 118 117

    81 83

    0

    25

    50

    75

    100

    125

    150

    175

    200

    East Greenwich Births: 1998 to 2018

    7

  • Unemployment Rates

     East Greenwich had an historic low 3.5% unemployment rate in 2018, the lowest rate going back to 1996

     Historically, the local unemployment rate is slightly below Rhode Island statewide rates

    6

    Source: RI Department of Labor and Training, Labor Market Information

    8

  • Birth Projections

    7

     Could not identify a reliable regression model tied to unemployment or housing sales to project births over the next five years due to the unusually low estimated births of 2017 and 2018

     Instead, projecting based on linear, exponential and moving average trends

    Source: RIDPH, MMI Birth Projections

    95

    99

    112

    92 97

    116

    99

    121

    119

    118 117

    81 83

    100

    50

    75

    100

    125

    150

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

    Axis Title

    East Greenwich Actual and Projected Births: 2008 to 2024

    Low Medium High Actual

    9

  • Household Composition

     About 34% of East Greenwich households include children

     Of family households with children, more than 70% have children between the ages of 6 and 17 only

     42% of all households have one or more people age 60 and over

    8

    Household Type Estimate % of Total

    Households

    Total Households 5,112 100.0% Average Household Size With own children under 18 years 1,728 33.8% Married Couple Families 2,894 56.6% Average Household Size With own children under 18 years 1,409 27.6% Under 6 years 179 3.5% Under 6 year and 6-17 223 4.4% 6-17 only 1,007 19.7% Female Householder, No Husband 292 5.7% Average Household Size With own children under 18 years 169 3.3% Under 6 years 45 0.9% Under 6 years and 6-17 21 0.4% 6-17 only 103 2.0% Nonfamily Households 1,645 32.2% Average Household Size Householder Living Along 1,552 30.4% Source: ACS 2013-2017 5 Year Dataset: S1101, B11016

    2017 Households by Type

    2.55

    3.26

    3.32

    1.06 10

  • Demographics Summary

     Relatively stable total population - however, aging demographic profile  Increase in elementary age population – however significant decline in birth

    rate over last two years  Attractive community for families with children to move into

     Elevated birth period of 2013-16 should contribute to larger student cohorts entering the District for the next two years

    9

    11

  • 10

    East Greenwich Total Housing Units

    East Greenwich’s total housing units decreased by less than 1% between 2010

    and 2017.

    Total Housing Units 2017: 5,407 Total Housing Units 2010: 5,414

    12

  • East Greenwich Public SchoolsEast Greenwich Renter Population

    East Greenwich’s renter occupied housing

    population grew by 7% between 2010 and 2017, to

    an estimated 22.7%

    Total Renter Occupied Units 2017: 1,161

    Total Renter Occupied Units 2010: 1,091

    13

  • Occupied Housing Units  Homeowners age 65 or above occupy

    about 27% of the total owner-occupied housing in 2017, an estimated 4% increase from 2010

     48% of all owner-occupied units are in Census Tract 209.03, the western half of East Greenwich

     Renters age 65 or above occupy about 33% of the total renter occupied housing in 2017, an estimated 1% increase from 2010

     80% of all rental units are in Census Tract 209.01, closest to downtown

    12

    14

  • Home Sales

     Total home sales increasing over last 3 years though estimated to level off in 2019 (based on 2019 estimate)

     Housing market sales rate has recovered from recession lows of 2008 - 2011

    13

    238 223217215

    192 163

    191 166

    116 142134138

    177 162

    181

    245 222

    202 223

    3947 24341224

    251918211718 3843

    21 48

    34 5261

    277270 241249

    204 187

    216 185

    134 163151156

    215205202

    293

    256254 284

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    400

    2019 est.

    201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007200620052004200320022001

    East Greenwich Home Sales: 2000 to 2019

    Single Family Condo TotalSource: The Warren Group - Town Statistics 2019 figures are estimated based on Jan-Aug sales data

    15

  • Home Sales

    14

     Housing prices have recovered about 90% of peak values from mid-2000s, encouraging more sales, coupled with elevated sales rate, indicating very strong local market

     East Greenwich remains the highest valued housing market among surrounding towns with a median sale price of $436,800 in 2018 including both single-family homes and condominiums

    *

    Source: The Warren Group – Town Statistics

    16

  • Home Sales

    15

     Sales well balanced across attendance areas  Split attendance areas help balance housing stock

    *

    Source: The Warren Group

    School District 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 3-Year Total Frenchtown/Eldredge 151 129 132 412

    Meadowbrook/Hannaford 128 142 147 417 Grand Total