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Earnings forecasts and forward-looking statements · Saudi Arabia Al Tuwairqi N/A (New mill)75 2008 Early planning phase (New mill) Pending Early planning phase Considering potential

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Page 1: Earnings forecasts and forward-looking statements · Saudi Arabia Al Tuwairqi N/A (New mill)75 2008 Early planning phase (New mill) Pending Early planning phase Considering potential
Page 2: Earnings forecasts and forward-looking statements · Saudi Arabia Al Tuwairqi N/A (New mill)75 2008 Early planning phase (New mill) Pending Early planning phase Considering potential

Earnings forecasts and forward-looking statements in this document are forecasts the Company has made using available information at the present time, and contain potential risks and uncertainties. For this reason, please note that due to changes in various factors, actual results may differ from the forecasts stated here.*All Output Figures in this presentation are metric tons.

Page 3: Earnings forecasts and forward-looking statements · Saudi Arabia Al Tuwairqi N/A (New mill)75 2008 Early planning phase (New mill) Pending Early planning phase Considering potential
Page 4: Earnings forecasts and forward-looking statements · Saudi Arabia Al Tuwairqi N/A (New mill)75 2008 Early planning phase (New mill) Pending Early planning phase Considering potential

4Overview of Joint Venture Overview of Joint Venture

1. Business Manufacture of Seamless pipes(Manufacturing company ; each parent company to conduct sales activities)

2. Capacity -600,000 tons/year of Seamless pipe(Each parent company to sell 300,000 tons)-One million tons/year of crude steel

3. Facilities Integrated steel works including-Upstream facilities such as blast furnace and steel making plants-Seamless pipe mill (product size range: 168.3mm~406.4mm)-Finishing facilities, other related facilities

4. Location State of Minas Gerais,Brazil

5. Scheduled startup By mid 2010

6. Total investment Approx. US$1,600 million

7. Investors Sumitomo Metals / Sumitomo Corporation , Vallourec(Vallourec will have the majority)

Page 5: Earnings forecasts and forward-looking statements · Saudi Arabia Al Tuwairqi N/A (New mill)75 2008 Early planning phase (New mill) Pending Early planning phase Considering potential

5Concept Behind Joint Venture CompanyConcept Behind Joint Venture Company30-year cooperation on leading

VAM brand

30-year cooperation on leading VAM brand

Steelmaking technology

Pipe manufacturing technology

Quality control

Steelmaking technology

Pipe manufacturing technology

Quality control

Mannesmann facility technology

More then 50 years business track record in Brazil

Mannesmann facility technology

More then 50 years business track record in Brazil

Construction of state-of-the-art seamless pipe production base by Sumitomo Metals and Vallourec, the strongest global players

Construction of state-of-the-art seamless pipe production base by Sumitomo Metals and Vallourec, the strongest global players

Good access to growing marketsOptimal location

Railroad, Port, Labor forceOre mines, Energy costs

Good access to growing marketsOptimal location

Railroad, Port, Labor forceOre mines, Energy costs

Page 6: Earnings forecasts and forward-looking statements · Saudi Arabia Al Tuwairqi N/A (New mill)75 2008 Early planning phase (New mill) Pending Early planning phase Considering potential

6Business SchemeBusiness Scheme

Crude steel: 1 million tons

Seamless pipe: 600,000 tons

Billets: 300,000 tons

300,000 tons 300,000 tons

Joint venture (manufacturing subsidiary)

Roughly same output as Wakayama medium-

diameter mill

Constant full-capacity

operation

Reducing externalSteel supply

Page 7: Earnings forecasts and forward-looking statements · Saudi Arabia Al Tuwairqi N/A (New mill)75 2008 Early planning phase (New mill) Pending Early planning phase Considering potential

7Increase in Seamless Pipe Sales Volume Increase in Seamless Pipe Sales Volume

300,000 tons

Meet demands of customers—who we have built close relationships with—by boosting sales of high-grade seamless pipe

Sales of seamless pipe assured even considering short-term demand fluctuations

Seamless pipe: 600,000 tonsBillets: 300,000 tons

Crude steel: 1 million tonsJoint venture

300,000 tons

Page 8: Earnings forecasts and forward-looking statements · Saudi Arabia Al Tuwairqi N/A (New mill)75 2008 Early planning phase (New mill) Pending Early planning phase Considering potential

8Basis of Respective Capital Investment in Joint VentureBasis of Respective Capital Investment in Joint Venture

Equal Partners

Seamless pipe sales volume

Crude steel usage volume

50 : 50

50 : 50

35 : 65

Total (ratio of capital investment)

50-α : 50+α

No. of officers in managing committee 50 : 50

Page 9: Earnings forecasts and forward-looking statements · Saudi Arabia Al Tuwairqi N/A (New mill)75 2008 Early planning phase (New mill) Pending Early planning phase Considering potential
Page 10: Earnings forecasts and forward-looking statements · Saudi Arabia Al Tuwairqi N/A (New mill)75 2008 Early planning phase (New mill) Pending Early planning phase Considering potential

10

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000

18,000

1980 2004 2010 2015 2030

Million TOE/year (Ton oil equivalent)

Outlook for Global Energy Demand and OCTGOutlook for Global Energy Demand and OCTG

Oil

NaturalGas

Coal

Nuclear

Others

Present estimate 2015 estimate8.4 million tons → 10 million tons

Index (100) (120)

OCTG demand

Vital to overcome challenges of severe drilling environments

Oil + Natural Gas(2004) 6,242million TOE

(2030) 9,444million TOE(2015) 7,767

million TOE

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2005

IEA=International Energy Agency

Page 11: Earnings forecasts and forward-looking statements · Saudi Arabia Al Tuwairqi N/A (New mill)75 2008 Early planning phase (New mill) Pending Early planning phase Considering potential

11

69.8km

2118m

110km

2307m

20km 40km 60km 80km 100km 120km 140km

600m

1200m

1800m

2400m

3000m

0

Source: Worldwide Progression of Water Depth Capabilities for Drilling & Production • As of March 2006:offshoreMagazine

Increasingly Severe Drilling EnvironmentsIncreasingly Severe Drilling EnvironmentsDistance from onshore base to offshore rig

Ult

ra-d

eep

Shal

low

Dee

p

Wat

erde

pth

Future plansSubsea gas drilling facilitySubsea oil drilling facility

Page 12: Earnings forecasts and forward-looking statements · Saudi Arabia Al Tuwairqi N/A (New mill)75 2008 Early planning phase (New mill) Pending Early planning phase Considering potential

12

10-4 10210-2 1

SevereH2S partial pressure (atm)

10-2

1

102

CO2

part

ial p

ress

ure

(atm

)Se

vere

Full lineup of materials capable of meeting all user needs

WorldWorld’’s Top Lineup of Materialss Top Lineup of Materials

Page 13: Earnings forecasts and forward-looking statements · Saudi Arabia Al Tuwairqi N/A (New mill)75 2008 Early planning phase (New mill) Pending Early planning phase Considering potential

13Breakdown of OCTG Breakdown of OCTG Global DemandGlobal Demand (2015)(2015)

Construction of facilities enables market entry

China, Russia and many othersApprox. 7 million

tons

Grade Suppliers

Approx. 2.3 million tons

3 companies worldwide, plus α

Approx. 700,000 tons

2 to 3 companies worldwide

Global Output

<material development/patents/allmaterial development/patents/all--round capabilitiesround capabilities>>

<in-house expertise/advanced joint technology>

API: steel based on standards set by the American Petroleum InstituteP/J: premium joints

Price Index

Page 14: Earnings forecasts and forward-looking statements · Saudi Arabia Al Tuwairqi N/A (New mill)75 2008 Early planning phase (New mill) Pending Early planning phase Considering potential

14Global OCTG Global OCTG ValueValue Structure Structure

Approx. 7 million tons

Approx. 2.3 million tons

Approx. 700,000 tons

Global Output Price Index

Vallourec SUMITOMO METALSSUMITOMO METALSSUMITOMO METALS

<material development/patents/allmaterial development/patents/all--round capabilitiesround capabilities>>

<in-house expertise/advanced joint technology>

Page 15: Earnings forecasts and forward-looking statements · Saudi Arabia Al Tuwairqi N/A (New mill)75 2008 Early planning phase (New mill) Pending Early planning phase Considering potential

15Seamless Pipe Mill Construction and Expansion Projects WorldwideSeamless Pipe Mill Construction and Expansion Projects Worldwide

Planning phase2010(Mill expansion)NonePervouralskRussia

Early planning phasePending(Mill expansion) 50Shanghai BAOSTEEL GroupLubao Steel Tube Corp.China(Shandong)

Construction phase2007(Mill expansion) 11NoneChangzhi I&S (Group) Co.China(Shanxi)

Construction phaseN/A(Mill expansion) 25NoneWuxi Seamless Pipe CorpChina(Jiangsu)

Construction phase2007(Mill expansion) 20NoneHengyang Steel Tube Co., LtdChina(Hunan)

Construction phaseN/A(New mill) 25-30Shengli OilfieldShandong Shouguang JunengChina(Liaoning)

Construction phase2008(Mill expansion) 20NoneAnshan Seamless Steel PipeChina(Shandong)

Construction phase2007(Mill expansion) 50NoneTianjin Pipe Co., LtdChina(Tianjin)

Planning phasePending(New mill) 100Jindal Saw PipeShadeedOman

Early planning phasePending(New mill)N/ABoulderUAE

Early planning phasePending(New mill)Under considerationTMK VolzhskyUAE

Early planning phasePending(New mill)Local investorsTianjin Pipe Co., LtdUAE

Indefinite delayPending(New mill) 100N/AWuxi Seamless Pipe CorpUAE

Early planning phase2008(New mill) 75N/AAl TuwairqiSaudi Arabia

Early planning phasePending(New mill)Considering potential technical alliances

ZamilSaudi Arabia

Planning phase2010(New mill) 50Local investorsArcelor MittalSaudi Arabia

Facilities ordered2009(New mill) 40Local investors, etc.TAQASaudi Arabia

Current StatusScheduled Startup

Production Capacity(millions tons/year)

PartnersEstablishing Company

Country

Total increase in output (identified): 5.7 million tons All mills for commodity-grade products (API)

Page 16: Earnings forecasts and forward-looking statements · Saudi Arabia Al Tuwairqi N/A (New mill)75 2008 Early planning phase (New mill) Pending Early planning phase Considering potential

16Our Global Strategy for HighOur Global Strategy for High--grade Seamless Pipe grade Seamless Pipe

Page 17: Earnings forecasts and forward-looking statements · Saudi Arabia Al Tuwairqi N/A (New mill)75 2008 Early planning phase (New mill) Pending Early planning phase Considering potential

17VAM Joint UsersVAM Joint Users——SupermajorsSupermajors

VAM users

Currently

Shell

ExxonMobil

BP

Total

Chevron

1997

PetroFina (Belgium)

Shell (Anglo-Dutch)

Exxon (US)

Mobil (US)

Texaco (US)

Chevron (US)

Total (France)

Amoco (US)

Elf (France)

ARCO (US)

BP (UK)

Long-term contracts with Sumitomo Metals

VAM share of global market for high-grade OCTG

40%

Other companies with long-term contracts

Statoil-Hydro

Page 18: Earnings forecasts and forward-looking statements · Saudi Arabia Al Tuwairqi N/A (New mill)75 2008 Early planning phase (New mill) Pending Early planning phase Considering potential

18The WorldThe World’’s Leading VAM Joint Service Networks Leading VAM Joint Service Network

Sumitomo Metals

Vallourec

Service centers

137 sites in 46 countries worldwide

Joint ventures for threading New factory

2002 2007 2010 ~

To be reinforced96 sites in 39 countries worldwide

(Joint manufacturing, repair and training)

Page 19: Earnings forecasts and forward-looking statements · Saudi Arabia Al Tuwairqi N/A (New mill)75 2008 Early planning phase (New mill) Pending Early planning phase Considering potential

19Sumitomo Metals and VallourecSumitomo Metals and Vallourec -- A Partnership of Over 30 YearsA Partnership of Over 30 Years

1984 VAM/USA (VAM-PTS)

1985 Citra Tubindo

1993 VAM Far East

1995 Vietubes

2007 VAM Changzhou

2010 Brazil Integrated Steel Worksincluding S’less Mill

1976 Start of VAM joint alliance

Joint venture for threading

Page 20: Earnings forecasts and forward-looking statements · Saudi Arabia Al Tuwairqi N/A (New mill)75 2008 Early planning phase (New mill) Pending Early planning phase Considering potential

20

Current Deep sea Areas or Basins

Source: Offshore Magazine

Frontier/Future Deep sea Areas or Basins

Deep sea Oil and Natural Gas Development Projects WorldwideDeep sea Oil and Natural Gas Development Projects Worldwide

Page 21: Earnings forecasts and forward-looking statements · Saudi Arabia Al Tuwairqi N/A (New mill)75 2008 Early planning phase (New mill) Pending Early planning phase Considering potential

21

JapanBrazil

Technology development center

Concentrate resources to high-end products

Supply products worldwide that only the Wakayama and Amagasaki site can manufacture

Gain access to the growth markets of North America, West Africa and Middle East

Global StrategyGlobal Strategy

Page 22: Earnings forecasts and forward-looking statements · Saudi Arabia Al Tuwairqi N/A (New mill)75 2008 Early planning phase (New mill) Pending Early planning phase Considering potential

22Change in Sumitomo Metals Change in Sumitomo Metals OCTG OCTG Sales CompositionSales Composition

High-end

Commodity

2006PriceIndex

Volume Index

Japan

100

8

33

100

0 150

After Brazil Mill

Japan + Brazil

Supe

r H

igh-

end

Page 23: Earnings forecasts and forward-looking statements · Saudi Arabia Al Tuwairqi N/A (New mill)75 2008 Early planning phase (New mill) Pending Early planning phase Considering potential

23Wakayama Mill: Accelerating Shift to Advanced ProductsWakayama Mill: Accelerating Shift to Advanced ProductsProportion of mill operating time

CommodityHigh-end

Super High-end

Product categories transferred to Brazil Commodity

High-end

Super High-end

2006

High-end

Com

modity

WAKAYAMA BRAZIL

SuperH

igh-end

After Brazil Mill

Page 24: Earnings forecasts and forward-looking statements · Saudi Arabia Al Tuwairqi N/A (New mill)75 2008 Early planning phase (New mill) Pending Early planning phase Considering potential

2424Accelerating DistinctivenessAccelerating Distinctiveness

Page 25: Earnings forecasts and forward-looking statements · Saudi Arabia Al Tuwairqi N/A (New mill)75 2008 Early planning phase (New mill) Pending Early planning phase Considering potential

Overview of Impact on Profits

Page 26: Earnings forecasts and forward-looking statements · Saudi Arabia Al Tuwairqi N/A (New mill)75 2008 Early planning phase (New mill) Pending Early planning phase Considering potential

2626Accelerating DistinctivenessAccelerating Distinctiveness——Steel Pipe Business Steel Pipe Business

+100,000 tons/yearFY10¥ 10billionBoost ultra high-strength line pipe output

+6,000 tons/yearFrom second half of FY07¥ 6.5billionBoost stainless steel boiler

tube output

From first half of FY08

Scheduled startup

+100,000 tons/year¥ 35billionBoost seamless pipe output

ScaleAmount

Investment plan

Pipe & Tube Company Consolidated Operating Profit

¥ 184 billion

2006 After Brazil mill startup

¥ 135 billion

After current Medium-Term Management Plan

¥ 147 billion

+300,000 tons/year in salesBy mid 2010(Total joint

investment )¥ Approx.200 bil

Brazil New seamless pipe joint venture

Page 27: Earnings forecasts and forward-looking statements · Saudi Arabia Al Tuwairqi N/A (New mill)75 2008 Early planning phase (New mill) Pending Early planning phase Considering potential

27

Targeted earnings rangeBuilding a Solid Operating Base to Underpin Future GrowthBuilding a Solid Operating Base to Underpin Future Growth

93 99 02 05 08 2010

New Medium-Term Plan (06-08)

Strategically position Sumitomo Metals to accelerate distinctiveness

Reinforce the operating base in anticipation of intensifying competition

Previous Medium-Term Plan (02-05)

Restructured steel business

Channeled resources into strategic fields

Reduced excessive debt

Recurring profit

Past earnings range

2010 Brazil Integrated Steel Works

including S’less Mill

Boost consolidated recurring profit by

approx. ¥35 billion/year

Page 28: Earnings forecasts and forward-looking statements · Saudi Arabia Al Tuwairqi N/A (New mill)75 2008 Early planning phase (New mill) Pending Early planning phase Considering potential

28

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80$/BarrelJuly 1988=100

88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

3.3 times 2.2 times 1.6 times

Projected crude oil price range

(US$ calculations: January 1988=100)

WTI Spot Price FOB ($/ Barrel)

Export Price Trends for Seamless PipeExport Price Trends for Seamless Pipe

11 6 510 9Number of major customers

13 412 11 10 9 6 5Number of Major

Suppliers

Index of Seamless pipe export price at Wakayama Custom.

Page 29: Earnings forecasts and forward-looking statements · Saudi Arabia Al Tuwairqi N/A (New mill)75 2008 Early planning phase (New mill) Pending Early planning phase Considering potential

29Risk AnalysisRisk Analysis

High-grade seamless pipe

Falling demandDrop in price

Drop in sales

High-grade seamless pipe

Intensifying competitionDrop in prices

Drop in sales Extremely difficult for new companies to enter market

Drop in price

Significant shift in demand structure possible

Structure of commodity-grade market different to that for high-grade seamless pipe but could be marginally affected

Exchange rates

Appreciation of the Real

Increased costs

10% appreciation in the Real/US$ rate→ negative impact on ordinary income of ¥2 billion

Brazil/JapanDifference in

manufacturing capability

Increased costs

Vallourec has strong track record of over 50 years in running local facilities

Vallourecacquired

Dissolution of business

Can purchase Vallourec’s stake in case of acquisition partner’s equity stake if needed

Continue sales to existing customer base

Possibility that one other company may boost output/purchase commodity-grade mill

Risk scenario Impact Our position

Commodity-grade seamless pipe

Deterioration in supply-demand conditions

・Long-term global economic slowdown・Increased popularity of lower cost alternatives due to innovation in biomass fuels

Page 30: Earnings forecasts and forward-looking statements · Saudi Arabia Al Tuwairqi N/A (New mill)75 2008 Early planning phase (New mill) Pending Early planning phase Considering potential

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