Early Warning Systems in the context of Disaster RiskManagement

Countries have long been concernedabout the huge impacts that natur-al disasters have on society in de-

veloped and especially in developingcountries. Unfortunately, societies havenot adapted their frameworks of devel-opment to the natural environment sur-rounding them and the losses and costsassociated with disasters of natural ori-gin. On the contrary societal catastro-phes are growing by the decade; globalannual disaster costs of fifty billion USdollars are common. Between 1960 and1990 the economic losses of disastersincreased five times due to rising vulner-ability (MunichRe, NatCatSERVICE; GeoRisks Research, 2005). Our vulnerability tonatural hazards is growing, because pop-ulation increases and more people areliving in risky places.Nearly a million people have been killedover the last decade by disasters causedby storms, droughts, floods. While somematerial losses seem to be unavoidable,especially in the case of very large andinfrequent events, in some cases the lossof human lives could have been avoided ifthe proper precautions and measures hadbeen in place. This would have been thecase for the December 26, 2004 IndianOcean tsunami, which provoked fatalitiessurpassing a quarter of a million people.

People-centred earlywarning systemsempower communitiesto prepare for andconfront the power ofnatural hazards.However, the efficiencyof such systems is to bemeasured in terms oflives saved andreduction in losses,which is directly relatedto the execution of ananticipated response bythe people andinstitutions once awarning is issued. Thispaper addressestraditional views onearly warning systems,and what it takes totransform them intoefficient, people-centredsystems.

In Sri Lanka, over 34,000 people lost theirlives due to the lack of a tsunami earlywarning system. While there would havebeen sufficient time to warn some of thecoastal population, the lack of awarenessregarding tsunamis, the lack of an earlywarning system, and the lack of trainingto respond to a warning inhibited theauthorities and the local population fromexecuting the proper measures whichwould have significantly reduced the lossof lives.The traditional framework of early warn-ing systems is composed of three phases:monitoring of precursors, forecasting of aprobable event, and the notification of awarning or an alert should an event ofcatastrophic proportions take place. Animproved four-step framework being pro-moted by national emergency agenciesand risk management institutions in-cludes the additional fourth phase: theonset of emergency response activitiesonce the warning has been issued. Thepurpose of this fourth element is to rec-ognize the fact that there needs to be aresponse to the warning, where the initialresponsibility relies on emergency res-ponse agencies (see figure).Effective early warning systems requirestrong technical foundations and goodknowledge of the risks. But they must be

Juan Carlos Villagran de León andJanos BogardiUnited Nations University – Institute forEnvironment and Human Security (UNU-EHS)Görresstraße 1553113 Bonn

Stefanie Dannenmann and Reid Basher Platform for the Promotion of EarlyWarning (UN/ISDR)Görresstraße 3053113 Bonn

23entwicklung & ländlicher raum 2/2006

Three phases of early warning systemsMeasurement of

precursors

Warning Warning

Onset of Antipated Response

Measurement ofprecursors

No No

Yes

Forecastindicates

catastrophicevent?

Forecastindicates

catastrophicevent?

Yes

Sch

wer

pun

kt

Centralisation and decentralisation of EWSWhen analyzing who executes the two initial phases of the early warning systems,namely, monitoring and forecasting, one can see two trends, centralised systemswhere a national-type agency carries out these functions, and decentralised systemswhere these tasks are carried out by other agencies, municipal workers and volun-teers at the more local level. For example, in Central America, the national meteoro-logical agencies operate early warning systems for hurricanes and for floods, includ-ing the emission of the warning to the media. Such systems are set up and operatedby these institutions. In contrast, national disaster reductionagencies, international organisations, and non-governmentalorganisations have been implementing decentralised systems insmall basins, where communities carry out all phases, includingthe response. In such systems, city halls are coordinating most ofthe activities, and are connected to the national emergencyagency via a radio network that is used to communicate all infor-mation within the system.While decentralised systems operate using much simpler equip-ment and are thus less precise, such systems rely on a network ofpeople-operated radios to transmit information regarding pre-cursors to events or warnings. The trade off gained from losingprecision to monitor and forecast events is gained by being ableto transmit other very useful information, generally related tosocial issues, such as medical needs, information regarding rela-tives or processes, or the solution of such problems as the fixingof power lines when they fail, or acquiring heavy machinery to re-open a road which might be blocked by a landslide. So far, com-munity-operated systems have been mostly applied in the caseof floods, especially in small flood basins.

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strongly «people centred» – with clearmessages, dissemination systems thatreach those at risk, and practiced andknowledgeable responses by risk man-agers and the public. Public awarenessand education are critical; in addition,many sectors must be involved. Effectiveearly warning systems must be embed-ded in an understandable manner and rel-evant to the communities which theyserve.

The four elements of people-centred Early Warning Systems

A complete and effective, people-centredearly warning system – EWS – comprisesfour inter-related elements, spanningknowledge of hazards and vulnerabilitiesthrough to preparedness and capacity torespond. A weakness or failure in any oneof these elements could result in failure ofthe whole system. Best practice EWS alsohave strong inter-linkages between all ele-ments in the chain.While good governanceand appropriate institutional arrange-ments are not specifically represented onthe «four element diagram», they are criti-cal to the development of effective earlywarning systems. Good governance isencouraged by robust legal and regulatoryframeworks and supported by long termpolitical commitment and integrated insti-tutional arrangements. Major players con-cerned with the different elements shouldmeet regularly to ensure that they under-stand all of the other components andwhat other parties need from them.

Risk Knowledge. Risks arise from both thehazards and the vulnerabilities that arepresent. What are the patterns and trendsin these factors? Risk assessment andmapping will help to set priorities amongearly warning system needs and to guidepreparations for response and disasterprevention activities. Risk assessmentcould be based on historic experience andhuman, social, economic and environmen-tal vulnerabilities.

Warning Service. A sound scientific basisfor predicting potentially catastrophicevents is required. Constant monitoring ofpossible disaster precursors is necessaryto generate accurate warnings on time.Approaches that address many hazardsand involve various monitoring agenciesare most effective.

Communication and Dissemination. Clearunderstandable warnings must reachthose at risk. For people to understand thewarnings they must contain clear, usefulinformation that enables proper respons-es. Regional, national and community lev-el communication channels must be iden-tified in advance and one authoritativevoice established.

Response Capability. It is essential thatcommunities understand their risks; theymust respect the warning service andshould know how to react. Building up aprepared community requires the partici-pation of formal and informal educationsectors, addressing the broader concept ofrisk and vulnerability.

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Challenges facing Early Warning Systems

In January 2004 the UN Secretary-Generalcalled for Global Early Warning Systems(EWS) addressing all natural hazards. Inhis 21 March 2005 Report on the imple-mentation of the Millennium Declaration,«In Larger Freedom: towards develop-ment, security and human rights for all»,he requested the secretariat for the Inter-national Strategy for Disaster Reduction(ISDR secretariat) to coordinate a surveyof the world’s early warning capacitiesand gaps. The complete results of the sur-vey will be published some time in 2006but preliminary findings highlight someof the shortcomings of EWS (UN/ISDR2005).

� Different hazards require different ear-ly warning systems: the needs for thewarning of a drought or a tsunami, forexample, are very different. Experiencesgathered around the world show thatsome hazards are difficult to predict.For example, the forecast of catastroph-ic eruptions or tsunamis in any part ofthe world is still facing major difficul-ties due to the lack of adequate mea-suring techniques to capture the truemagnitude and timing regarding thesepotentially catastrophic events. Never-theless, efforts are underway toadvance such knowledge and improvethe precision of such forecasts.

� At present, many systems that are ableto issue warnings for a number of nat-ural hazards are in place. A frequentproblem, however, is the weak linkagebetween the technical capacity to issuethe warning and the public’s capacityto respond effectively to the warning,i.e., the capacity of the warning to trig-ger the appropriate response by emer-gency management agencies, commu-nity-based organizations and the publicat large. Moreover, the understandingby the public and community organiza-

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tions of their risk and vulnerabilities isoften lacking. Therefore, preparednessprogrammes as well as land use andurban planning, public education andawareness programmes are needed.

� Different hazards are handled widelydifferently. Weather-related hazards aregenerally well covered worldwidethrough the national meteorologicaland hydrological services of the WMOsystem, and forecast accuracy hasimproved greatly over recent decades.These capacities still need to be extend-ed to other hazards and complementedby other risk reduction measures thatare sorely missing, as was well illustrat-ed by the Indian Ocean tsunamitragedy.

� Many developing countries, in particu-lar the least developed among them,have limited capacities for effectiveearly warning systems, and in somecases they are virtually non-existent.Key requirements appear to be thedevelopment of national integratedrisk reduction and risk managementcapabilities, and improved technicalequipment and training.

� By considering hazards and vulnerabili-ties together with a view to reducingrisk, it should be possible to increasethe effectiveness within institutions,the efficiency of outgoing actions, andpublic preparedness for early warningsystems to be effective.

Conclusions

The challenges that have been presentedwill require sustained attention by Govern-ments. The 2004 tsunami disaster alsogave additional relevance to the work ofthe World Conference on Disaster Reduc-tion (WCDR, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan, 18-22 Jan-uary 2005), and the blueprint agreed byGovernments during the Conference, theHyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015.The Framework carries a strong commit-ment and ownership of Governments andregional, international and non-govern-mental organizations. The emphasis of theFramework on national implementationand follow-up, with the primary responsi-bility of states, requires the development ofstrong participatory and collaborative tiesbetween civil society and authorities atnational and local levels, involving all devel-opment sectors (health, education, agricul-ture, tourism, etc.), national disaster man-agement systems, business sector and aca-demic, scientific and technical supportorganisations. Some gaps, such as tsunamiearly warning systems, that are now clearlyidentified still require significant capacitybuilding efforts. An even greater effort isrequired for other less visible threats. TheInternational Early Warning Conference IIIto be held in Bonn at the end of March,2006, will surely provide ample opportuni-ty to identify advances in these criticalareas as well as advances in existing sys-tems and approaches to early warning.

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The four elements of people-centred Early Warning Systems

Risk knowledge Prior knowledge of the risks

faced by communities. Are the hazards and the

vulnerabilities well known? What are the patterns and

trends in these factors? Are maps and datawidely available?

Dissemination Dissemination of understandable

warning to those at risk. Do the warnings reach

those at risk? Do people understand

the warnings? Do they contain relevantand useful information?

Response capability Knowledge and preparedness to

act by those threatened. Do communities

understand their risks? Do they respect the

warning service? Do they know how to react?

Are plans up to dateand practiced?

Warning service Technical monitoring and

warning service. Are the right parameters

being monitored? Is there a sound scientific basis

for making forecasts? Can accurate and timely warnings be generated?

Indigenous knowledge and education

Reports from around the Indian Ocean rimafter the December 26 tsunami, such asfrom fishing communities in Thailand,tribal communities on India’s remote An-daman and Nicobar islands (Perez, F.Y.L.,2005 Survival Tactics of Indigenous People:http://academic.evergreen.edu/g/gross-maz/LEEPERFY/), and even tourist resortspowerfully demonstrate that knowledgegained from experience or from educationare critical to reducing disasters.Leaders of Indonesia’s Simeulue communi-ty received a prestigious U.N. award forsaving tens of thousands of lives duringthe tsunami. Thanks to faith in their ownknowledge of how the sea behaves andthe reaction of buffaloes ahead of thetsunami, this community of some 80,500people fled the shore for nearby hills onthat fateful Sunday morning. Consequent-ly, only seven people died from the tsuna-mi in this island community, while 163,795died across the rest of Indonesia’s north-ern Aceh province (UN/ISDR, 2005, UNSasakawa Award for Disaster Reduction:http://www.unisdr.org/eng/sasakawa/2005/sk-2005-description-eng.htm).«The story of what happens to the seabefore a tsunami and how the buffaloesrush towards the hills has been shared byfamilies for years along with other storiesabout our ancestors», said Mohamed Rid-wan, a leader of the Simeulue community,after receiving the award. This oral narra-tive had been shaped by the destructionthat shook this community of farmers,fishermen and traders when an earth-quake followed by a tsunami hit theislanders in 1907, killing thousands. «Sincethen we have learned how to escape, andlast December it took about 30 minutes toget to the higher ground», Ridwan, 53, sec-retary of the Simeuleu district region, ex-plained during an interview.The power of knowledge was also demon-strated at a tourist resort near Phuket,Thailand, where a young British schoolgirlrecognised that the turbulent sea and loudnoise of the waves meant a tsunami wascoming (Clinton, B., Transcript of Remarksto UN Economic and Social Council(ECOSOC), July 14th 2005: http://www.unisdr.org/eng/media-room/point-view/WJC-ECOSOC-transcript.pdf). Shealerted her parents and other people pre-sent of the danger, which possibly resultedin saving of 100 lives. The girl was able torecognise the signs because she hadrecently learned about tsunamis in classesat her school. Education, whether of for-mal or informal type, empowers people byproviding a sound basis for understandingand action.