Eads Moores Law

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    Moores Law and Its Future

    Mark Clements

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    This WeekMoores Law

    History of Transistors and circuits

    The Integrated circuit manufacturing process Moore Law is announced

    Benefits of ICs

    Extrapolating Moores Law to its conclusion Technological advances

    Moores Law version 2?

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    Discrete Transistors and Circuits

    The transistor succeeded the valve in the late 1940s

    Electronic engineers began to design complex circuitsusing discrete componentstransistors, resistors, capacitors

    Performance and other problems were noticed due tothe number of separate components

    Circuits were unreliable and heavyHigh power consumption long time to assemble

    Expensive to produce

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    The Solution Integrated Circuits

    Build entire circuit on a wafer of silicon

    Use masking and spraying techniques in manufacturePure silicon wafers made from large crystals of silicon

    Areas of silicon doped with suitable elements e.g. Be

    Conductive tracks made from aluminiumUse this technique to produce other components e.g.capacitors and resistors on the same wafer

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    Problems solved

    Inter-device distances reduced faster circuits

    Lightweight circuits suitable for space travelCheaper assembly cost after recovery of R&D costs

    Identical circuit properties better matching

    Less power required less heat dissipated

    Smaller circuits smaller devices could be built

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    Gordon Moore - Observations

    Gordon Moore worked for Fairchild Semiconductors

    He noticed a trend in IC manufactureEvery 2 years the number of components on an area ofsilicon doubled*

    He published this work in 1965known as Moores Law

    His predictions were for 10 years into the future

    His work predicted personal computers and fasttelecommunication networks

    * Sources vary regarding time period

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    Graph of Moores Law

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    IC Technologies

    Small Scale Integration (SSI) combined around 10discrete components onto 5mm square of silicon

    substrate.SSI led to Medium Scale Integration (MSI), then LargeScale Integration (LSI) with many thousands ofcomponents in the same area of silicon.

    Very Large Scale Integration (VLSI) provided the meansto implement around 1 million components per chip.

    Current technology produces silicon wafers with around50 million components per chip. The Pentium 4 has

    around 55 million components on the wafer (2003).

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    IC Technology

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    Why does the law exist?

    Some of the factors that contribute to Moores Law:

    Manufacturers wishing to keep up with the law

    Competition between manufacturers

    Successive technologies providing better design tools

    Customer demand for better productsMans constant struggle to advance knowledge

    There may be other factors too

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    The Next Step

    Intel have announced that they have the

    technology to produce microprocessorscontaining more than 400 million transistors,

    running at 10 gigahertz and operating at less

    than one volt, in the next five to ten years.

    This is in line with Moores law

    http://www.intel.com/netcomms/technologies/manuf.htm?iid=techtrends+tech_manuf_expertise&http://www.intel.com/netcomms/technologies/manuf.htm?iid=techtrends+tech_manuf_expertise&
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    Shrinking the Size of a Component

    How small can a component become?

    What limits the size of a device? What do we make the devices from?

    Do quantum effects have an influence here?

    If there is a limit, what happens to MooresLaw?

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    The Current Limitations

    Circuits cannot be reduced beyond atomic size

    Quantum effects reduce the reliability as size decreases

    Lithographic techniques become more complex as the

    size of components becomes smaller than the

    wavelength of lightSpeed of electrical signals is finite

    This suggests that Moores Law will finally end

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    Lateral Thinking

    To improve the performance of devices, new

    technologies are in development:

    Quantum storage (quantum data registers - a faster,

    more efficient way to store and retrieve data than the

    binary system we use today)

    Light operated transistors

    Electro-optical polymers and more are showing new

    techniques for achieving the ever higher performance

    demanded by industry and consumers

    http://www.umich.edu/~focuspfc/http://www.evidenttech.com/applications/optical_transistor.phphttp://www.evidenttech.com/applications/optical_transistor.phphttp://www.umich.edu/~focuspfc/
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    The Future of ICs

    Moore acknowledged that his "law" won't hold forever.

    He asserted that the right technological approaches can

    delay "forever", extending the longevity of his original

    prediction.

    Intel are working on new ideas such as SiGe and

    strained silicon to delay the end of Moores Law

    Designing transistors that switch at speeds around THz(can switch on and off a trillion times per second)

    The advances continue!

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    The End of the Line?

    It is obvious that technology will improve

    We may meet the lower size limit of atransistor

    Therefore the abilities of the transistor itself

    will have to improve instead Faster switching, lower power designs etc.

    ICs still improve

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    Moores Law version 2?

    After his law is no longer valid what can we use tomeasure trends?

    Component density?No it would be fairly constant

    Performance?Yes but which metric?

    Switching rate?

    Individual or bulk?Rise time?Access time or read/ write timeOther measurable attributes

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    Moore version 2s metric(s)

    Technological advances will continue as long as there isdemand for digital devices

    It is immaterial whether the component density limit isreached

    Another metric will have to be chosen to allow the ICevolution to be mapped and to allow valid predictions to

    be made

    Which metric this is extremely complex to choose

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    Conclusion

    Moores law will eventually reach its inevitable conclusion

    Technology will continue to advance

    ICs with improved properties will be manufactured

    Another metric will need to be chosen to allow the future

    trends to be mapped and predictedThe complexity of current IC design means this choice

    will be difficult

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    References

    http://www.intel.com/labs/features/mi03031.htm#extend

    http://www.intel.com/netcomms/technologies/manuf.htm?iid=techtr

    ends+tech_manuf_expertise&http://www.intel.com/research/silicon/mooreslaw.htm

    http://www.intel.com/labs/features/mi03031.htm

    http://www.intel.com/labs/features/mi03031.htmhttp://www.intel.com/netcomms/technologies/manuf.htm?iid=techtrends+tech_manuf_expertise&http://www.intel.com/netcomms/technologies/manuf.htm?iid=techtrends+tech_manuf_expertise&http://www.intel.com/research/silicon/mooreslaw.htmhttp://www.intel.com/labs/features/mi03031.htmhttp://www.intel.com/labs/features/mi03031.htmhttp://www.intel.com/research/silicon/mooreslaw.htmhttp://www.intel.com/netcomms/technologies/manuf.htm?iid=techtrends+tech_manuf_expertise&http://www.intel.com/netcomms/technologies/manuf.htm?iid=techtrends+tech_manuf_expertise&http://www.intel.com/labs/features/mi03031.htm