Dudley Charts

8/9/2019 Dudley Charts

1/30

. .

.PresidentandChiefExecutiveOfficer

FederalReserveBankofNewYorkWashingtonandLeeUniversity

H.ParkerWillisLectureinPoliticalEconomicsLexington,VAApril1,2010


2/30

2 2

Percent Percent

Current Account Balance as a Percent of GDP

0 0

- -

- -

- -

-8

1970 1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006

-8

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Note: Shading represents NBER recessions, vertical linerepresents 2007Q4 business cycle peak.

1


3/30

Real Broad Trade Weighted Value of the US DollarIndex Index

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Source: Federal Reserve Board2Note: Shading represents NBER recessions, vertical line

represents 2007Q4 business cycle peak.


4/30

20 20

10-Year Treasury Note Yield at Constant MaturityPercent Percent

16 16

12 12

8 8

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010




5/30

% Change Year to Year % Change Year - Year

Net Stock: Private Residential, Nonresidential Structures, andEquipment and Software

10 10

Equipment andSoftware

8 8

6 6

4 4

Residential

2 2

NonresidentialStructures

0

1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008

0

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis4Note: Shading represents NBER recessions, vertical line



6/30

Total Balance by Credit Score QuintileBillions of Dollars

Median

Credit Score

of Quintile Percent of Percent of

PercentChange

from

Previous Percent of

PercentChange

from

Previous

2005-Q1 2008-Q3 2009-Q3

(2005-Q1) Total Debt Total Total Debt Total Period Total Debt Total Period

807 2020.0 22.2% 2290.0 18.7% 13.4% 2190.0 18.8% -4.4%

-. . . . . . . - .

708 2360.0 26.0% 3450.0 28.2% 46.2% 3300.0 28.3% -4.3%

631 1450.0 16.0% 2280.0 18.7% 57.2% 2130.0 18.3% -6.6%

538 928.0 10.2% 1090.0 8.9% 17.5% 1040.0 8.9% -4.6%

Total 9088.0 100.0% 12220.0 100.0% 34.5% 11670.0 100.0% -4.5%

Source: FRBNY Equifax Panel Dataset

5


7/30

70 70

Percent PercentHomeownership Rate

68 68

66 66

64 64

62

1970 1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006

62

Source: Census Bureau

6Note: Shading represents NBER recessions, vertical linerepresents 2007Q4 business cycle peak.


8/30


9/30

Index Index

Loan Performance House Price Index & CommercialReal Estate Price Index

200 200Loan Performance:

HPI

160 160Commercial

Real Estate

120 120

80

2000 2003 2006 2009

80

Source: Loan Performance and MIT Real Estate Center



10/30

First Mortgages: 90+ Day Delinquency Rates

Ratio Ratio(Series set to 1.0 at 4Q prior to NBER peak)

. .% of number of loans% of number of loans Q4 09Q4 09

3.0

.

3.0

.

Current Cycle

2.0 2.0

1.0 1.0

0.0 0.0

1990-1991 Cycle 1981-1982 Cycle1974-1975 Cycle

- - - -

Quarters Since 4Q Prior to NBER Peak

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association

9


11/30

Percent of 90+ days Late Mortgage Balance Owned byMultiple Home Owners

45453+ home owners 2 home owners

Percent Percent

3535

2525

1515

5

10

5

10

00

04Q1 05Q1 06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Source: Equifax, FRBNY


12/30

30 30

Percent Percent

Household Liabilities as a Percent of Net Worth

25 25

20 20

15 15

10

1970 1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006

10

Source: Federal Reserve Board



13/30

RatioRatio

(Series Set to 1.0 at NBER Peak)Real GDP

1.10 1.10

1.05 1.05

1973 Cycle1981 Cycle

1.00 1.00

0.95 0.95

Current Cycle

- -

Quarters Since NBER Peak

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

12


14/30

DifferenceDifference

(Series Set to 0.0 at NBER Peak)Unemployment Rate

5.0

6.0

5.0

6.0

Current Cycle

4.0 4.0

2.0

3.0

2.0

3.0

1.0 1.01981 Cycle

-1.0

0.0

-1.0

0.0

- -


Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics13


15/30

68 36.0

Labor Force Participation Rate and Average Weekly HoursPercent 3 Month Moving Average Hours 3 Month Moving Average

35.5

Participation Rate(left axis)

34.5

35.0

34.0

33.0

33.5verage ee y ours

(right axis)

64

32.5

63

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

32.0

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics14Note: Shading represents NBER recessions, vertical line



16/30

RatioRatio

(Series Set to 1.0 at NBER Peak)

Nonfarm Business Sector: Hours Worked

1.05

1.10

1.05

1.10

1.00 1.00

yc e

0.95 0.95

1973 Cycle

0.90 0.90

Current Cycle

0.80

.

0.80

.

- -




17/30

6 6

Total and Core CPI% Change - Year to Year % Change - Year to Year

5 5Total CPI

3

4

3

4

2 2

0

1

0

1ore

-1 -1

-

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

-




18/30

6-Month % Change - Annualized

Exports and Industrial Production6-Month % Change - Annualized

20

30

10

15

Exports (left axis)

10

0

5

-10

0

-5Industrial Production:

Manufacturing

-20-15

-10

-

-30

-

-20

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Source: Federal ReserveBoard and Census Bureau



19/30

Net Worth over Disposable Personal Income

Percent Percent700 700

600 600

Net Worth/DPI

550 550

500 500

450 450

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010




20/30

30 30

Percent Percent

Household Liabilities as a Percent of Net Worth

25 25

20 20

verage overlast 10 years

15 15

10

1970 1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006

10




21/30

MBA Purchase Mortgage Applications and ExistingHome SalesIndex Thousands

500 8000

Purchase LoanApplications

400

7000

350 6000

300

5000

Existing HomeSales (right axis)

250

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association,National Association of Realtors

20

Note: Shading represents NBER recessions, vertical linerepresents 2007Q4 business cycle peak.


22/30

3.5 12

Percent PercentVacancy Rates

3.0

2.5

10

Rental Vacancy Rate(right axis)

2.0 8

1.5

6Homeowner Vacancy

1.0 Rate (left axis)

0.5

1970 1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006

4

Source: Census Bureau21Note: Shading represents NBER recessions, vertical line



23/30

Total Receipts of State and Local Governments% Change Year to Year % Change Year to Year

20

30

20

30

10 10

Grants

urren

Receipts

0 0

-10 -10ReceiptsLessGrants

-20 -20

-30

1985 1991 1997 2003 2009

-30




24/30

30 30

2-qtr % Change - Annualized 2-qtr % Change - Annualized

Real Imports and Exports

20 20

10 10

Imports xpor s

0 0

-10 -10

-20 -20

-30

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

-30




25/30

0.14 0.14

Ratio Ratio

Corporate Profits as a Fraction of National Income

0.12 0.12

0.10 0.10

0.08 0.08

0.06

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

0.06

Source: Bureau of Economic AnalysisNote: Shading represents NBER recessions, vertical line

represents 2007Q4 business cycle peak.24


26/30

0.12 0.12

Ratio Ratio

Corporate Net Cash Flow as a Fraction of Nominal GDP

0.10 0.10

0.08 0.08

0.06

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

0.06

Source: Bureau of Economic AnalysisNote: Shading represents NBER recessions, vertical line

represents 2007Q4 business cycle peak.25


27/30

Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Rate

Percent Percent85 85

80 80

75 75

70 70

65 65

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Source: Federal Reserve BoardNote: Shading represents NBER recessions, vertical line


26


28/30

Rent Inflation% Change - Year to Year % Change - Year to Year

4.5

.

4.5

.

3.5

.

3.5

.

Tenant Rent (8%)

2.5

.

2.5

.

Owners'

1.5

.

1.5

.Equivalent Rent

(31%)

0.5

.

0.5

.

.

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

.


Note: Shading represents NBER recessions, vertical line

represents 2007Q4 business cycle peak.Numbers in parentheses represent share of core CPI.


29/30

1003Productivity, Compensation, and Unit Labor CostsNonfarm Business Sector

% Change - Year to Year% Change - Year to Year

8

10

8

10

6 6Compensation per Hour

2 2

-2

0

-2

0Output per Hour

-4 -4Unit Labor Costs

-6

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

-6




30/30

TIPS Implied Inflation Compensation: 2-3, 4-5, 5-10Year HorizonsPercent Percent

3.5

.

3.5

.

5-10 Year

Mar 30:2.92

2.5

.

2.5

.

4-5 YearMar 30:

1.5

.

1.5

.

2-3 Year2.57

Mar 30:1.92

0.5

.

0.5

.

-0.5

.

-0.5

.

- .

Jun-07 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10

- .

Source: Federal Reserve Board Note: Carry Adjusted.29

Documents

Dudley Charts