Drina Nexus Assessment CH5: Co-optimizing Flow ... 1.Limitedcooperationintheoperationof hydropower dams

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  • Prof. Mark Howells Youssef Almulla, Francesco Gardumi and Eunice Ramos

    Division of Energy Systems Analysis - KTH

    Drina Nexus Assessment CH5: Co-optimizing Flow regulation

  • 1.Limited cooperation in the operation of hydropower dams.

    2.Uncertainty on the impacts of hydropower expansion on the flow regime and downstream uses.

    3.Environmental flow regulation and impacts on electricity production.

    4.Energy poverty in the DRB.

    5.Lack of investments in non-hydro renewable energy sources.

    6.Slow implementation of energy efficiency policies.

    7. Un-utilized Electricity Export potential.

    KEY CHALLENGES

  • Suggested Policy Direction

    Improving cooperation between the DRB countries on flow regulation

    SUGGESTED SOLUTIONS

  • SUGGESTED SOLUTIONS

    Suggested Policy Packages:

    1.Coordination in the operation of the hydro power plants in the DRB.

    2.Cooperation to Mitigate the risk against Floods.

    3.Environmental flow considerations.

    4.Assessment of new hydro power plants projects.

    5.Motivating the implementation of Energy Efficiency measures.

  • Suggested solutions/actions:

    1. Better scheduling of hydro power plants operation.

    2. Formal agreement on flow regulation.

    3. Improve data sharing and intersectoral communication.

    4. Unified and modern hydro- meteorological forecasting system.

    5. Development and continuously updating forecasting models.

    1. COORDINATION IN THE OPERATION OF HYDRO POWER PLANTS

  • Developing multi-country model of the three riparian countries (BA, ME and RS) with the focus on Drina river basin, using the Open Source energy MOdeling SYStem (OSeMOSYS).

    Quantification of the benefits of

    (Co-)optimizing flow regulation

    Energy System

    Hydrological

    System

    HPP

    Approach

    Focus:

     Cost optimal electricity generation to meet the demand.

     Soft linking of water flow in electricity generation system.

    Drina Water – Energy Model (DWEM):

  • SCENARIO DESCRIPTION

    Base scenario (BASE): representing the non cooperative operation of HPPs in DRB. Upstream HPPs are operated on a single unit base and those downstream are responding to their best.

    Cooperative scenario (COP): representing a cooperative planning and operation of all the hydro power plants in the basin.  Increased Trade (COP_TRD): explores the opportunities of improving interconnections and trade of electricity.

     Energy efficiency (COP_EE): investigates the impact of implementing energy efficiency measures on the electricity generation mix.

  • GAINS IN ELECTRICITY GENERATION (COP – BASE)

    • Compare the Cooperative operation with non-cooperative scenario.

    • Better cooperation allow for better water availability in the river.

    • Reduce thermal generation and reduce the overall system cost.

  • Suggested solutions/actions:

    1. Improve cooperation through better emergency preparedness and response planning.

    2. Properly operating hydro- meteorological monitoring and the early warning systems.

    3. Comprehensive approach that covers: infrastructure, software, modeling tools and building human capacity.

    2. COOPERATION TO MITIGATE THE RISK AGAINST FLOODS

  • Suggested solutions/actions:

    1. Harmonise and enforce environmental flow legislation.

    2. Effective monitoring of environmental flow consideration at different phases of projects.

    3. Apply ICPDR guiding principles in the development of future hydropower projects and upgrading of existing ones.

    3. ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW CONSIDERATIONS

  • Suggested solutions/actions:

    1. Update estimates of hydropower potential in the DRB.

    2. Revisit feasibility studies of new power plants with the current economic outlook.

    3. Take advantage of the existing platforms to plan and coordinate future developments.

    4. ASSESSMENT OF NEW HYDRO POWER PLANTS PROJECTS

  • Suggested solutions/actions:

    1. Speed up transposition of relevant Energy Community-energy efficiency legislation.

    2. Take advantage of the Energy Community - Energy Efficiency Task Force as a platform to discuss • Implementation of the Energy Efficiency Action

    Plans.

    • Prospects for increased financing for the energy efficiency measures implementation

    5. MOTIVATING THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY MEASURES

  • SCENARIO DESCRIPTION

    Base scenario (BASE): representing the non cooperative operation of HPPs in DRB. Upstream HPPs are operated on a single unit base and those downstream are responding to their best.

    Cooperative scenario (COP): representing a cooperative planning and operation of all the hydro power plants in the basin.  Increased Trade (COP_TRD): explores the opportunities of improving interconnections and trade of electricity.

     Energy efficiency (COP_EE): investigates the impact of implementing energy efficiency measures on the electricity generation mix.

  • ENERGY EFFICIENCY

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    ENERGY EFFICIENCY

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    TOTAL Non-hydro RES CO2 Emissions

  • Key Model limitations and future work

    • This indicative analysis can be further improved with:

    • Site specific data related to (electricity generation, electricity trade and transmission losses and targets, water flow ..etc)

    • Clear vision about future projects (hydro, non hydro RE and thermal)

    • The model is electricity driven which means it operates the system to meet the specified demand tacking into account water availability. For more hydrological focused insights, detailed hydrological modelling required.

  • Prof. Mark Howells Youssef Almulla, Francesco Gardumi and Eunice Ramos

    Division of Energy Systems Analysis - KTH

    Drina Nexus Assessment CH5: Co-optimizing Flow regulation

  • Suggested Solutions

    (5Is)

    Institutions

    Information and

    research

    InstrumentsInfrastructure

    International coordination

    and cooperation

  • Suggested Policy Direction

    Improving cooperation between the DRB countries on flow regulation in the operation of hydro power plants, mitigation risks against floods, reducing the stress on hydro and thermal generation through the implementation of energy efficiency measures and non-hydro renewables.

    SUGGESTED SOLUTIONS

  • GAINS IN ELECTRICITY GENERATION (COP – BASE)

    PIVA (880 MCM)

    Uvac (213 MCM)

    Bajina Basta (218 MCM)

    Visegrad (161 MCM)

    Kokin Brod (250 MCM)

    Potpec (27.5 MCM)

    PIVA

    RIVER LIM RIVER

    UVAC

    RIVER

    DRINA RIVER

    Bistrica (7.6 MCM)

    Zvornik (89 MCM)

  • EXTENDED TRADE SCENARIO (COP_TRD)

  • EXTENDED TRADE SCENARIO (COP_TRD)

  • HOW WILL THE SYSTEM BENEFIT FROM ENERGY

    EFFICIENCY MEASURES?

  • Model limitations and future work

    • This indicative analysis can be further improved with:

    • Validation of generation technologies list (operating and planned infrastructure, investment costs, variable & fixed costs, efficiency of power plants);

    • Cross-border transfer capacities (including trade agreements, operating and planned infrastructure);

    • Consolidated data on electricity demand (yearly and daily);

    • Fuel prices for electricity generation;

    • Transmission and distribution losses and updated/validation of targets;

    • Non-hydro renewable energy targets after 2020;

    • Updating the energy efficiency target after 2020.