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Directorate-General Energy and Transport / Air Transport Directorate 1
Towards a Common Towards a Common Aviation AreaAviation Area
Traffic Patterns Traffic Patterns
EUROMED AVIATION PROJECTAIR TRANSPORT SEMINAR
Amman (Jordan), 17–18 October 2007
2Directorate-General Energy and Transport / Air Transport Directorate
Aviation Liberalisation WorldwideAviation Liberalisation Worldwide
Many countries adopting liberal aviation Many countries adopting liberal aviation policies:policies:
• Essential for economic developmentEssential for economic development• Stimulates growth in aviation marketsStimulates growth in aviation markets• Encourages competition and efficiencyEncourages competition and efficiency• Provides economic benefits through:Provides economic benefits through:
- - lower fareslower fares- greater choice- greater choice- stimulation of wider economy (e.g. - stimulation of wider economy (e.g. employment, trade in goods and services) employment, trade in goods and services)
3Directorate-General Energy and Transport / Air Transport Directorate
Example: IndiaExample: India
• 19531953:: Indian airline industry nationalised - Indian airline industry nationalised - only 2 Indian carriersonly 2 Indian carriers
• 19941994:: Private carriers permitted to operate Private carriers permitted to operate scheduled servicesscheduled services
• 20042004:: New liberal international policy New liberal international policy- opening international routes to more Indian and - opening international routes to more Indian and
foreign carriers foreign carriers- multiple designation policy- multiple designation policy- tariff liberalisation- tariff liberalisation- - „„open skyopen sky”” cargo policy cargo policy- relaxation of foreign investment limits- relaxation of foreign investment limits
India-US open skies agreement signed January 2005India-US open skies agreement signed January 2005
4Directorate-General Energy and Transport / Air Transport Directorate
Example: IndiaExample: India
• Enormous growth in demandEnormous growth in demand2003-2006: domestic market grew 30% per 2003-2006: domestic market grew 30% per annum; international 15% per annumannum; international 15% per annum
• Underpinned by increased capacity and Underpinned by increased capacity and price stimulation resulting from increased price stimulation resulting from increased competitioncompetition
• At present 9 domestic scheduled carriers At present 9 domestic scheduled carriers vs. only 3 in 2002vs. only 3 in 2002
• Current fleet 292 aircraft Current fleet 292 aircraft andand 480 aircraft on 480 aircraft on orderorder
• Double-digit growth in in-bound tourismDouble-digit growth in in-bound tourism
5Directorate-General Energy and Transport / Air Transport Directorate
Example: ASEANExample: ASEAN
ASEAN Transport Ministers have produced various roadmaps ASEAN Transport Ministers have produced various roadmaps for a staged process of liberalisation, as follows:for a staged process of liberalisation, as follows:
i.i. For air freight (cargo) services, significant For air freight (cargo) services, significant liberalization by 2006, and full liberalization by liberalization by 2006, and full liberalization by 2008; 2008;
ii. For scheduled passenger services:
o unlimited third and fourth freedom flights for all designated points within ASEAN sub-regions by 2005, and for at least two designated points in each country between the ASEAN sub-regions by 2006;
o unlimited fifth freedom traffic between designated points within the ASEAN sub-regions by 2006 and at least two designated points in each country between the ASEAN sub-regions by 2008;
o unlimited third and fourth freedom flights between the capital cities by 2008;
o unlimited fifth freedom flights for the capital cities by 2010
6Directorate-General Energy and Transport / Air Transport Directorate
Example: ChileExample: Chile
• Internal market progressively liberalised from 1979Internal market progressively liberalised from 1979
• Open skies policy in 1996Open skies policy in 1996
• No limits to foreign ownership of air carriers in ChileNo limits to foreign ownership of air carriers in Chile
• No barriers to market entryNo barriers to market entry
• Chile allows foreign air carriers to operate domestic flights, Chile allows foreign air carriers to operate domestic flights, based on reciprocitybased on reciprocity
• Chile has granted unlimited third and fourth freedom traffic Chile has granted unlimited third and fourth freedom traffic rights in bilateral relations with more than 30 countriesrights in bilateral relations with more than 30 countries
• International passenger traffic to and from Chile increased International passenger traffic to and from Chile increased from 2.4 million in 1996 to 4 million in 2005from 2.4 million in 1996 to 4 million in 2005
• Chile's exports to the EU have increased from $4.3 bn in 2002 Chile's exports to the EU have increased from $4.3 bn in 2002 to $12.5 bn in 2006.to $12.5 bn in 2006.
7Directorate-General Energy and Transport / Air Transport Directorate
OthersOthers
Further countries liberalising aviation:Further countries liberalising aviation:
CanadaCanadaAustraliaAustraliaNew ZeelandNew ZeelandSingaropeSingaropeHong KongHong KongMoroccoMoroccoUAEUAEJordanJordanSouth KoreaSouth Koreaetc.etc.
8Directorate-General Energy and Transport / Air Transport Directorate
European Liberalisation
THE FUTURE OF AIR TRANSPORT
9Directorate-General Energy and Transport / Air Transport Directorate
The Enlarging EU• 25 Member States• 450 Million Inhabitants • One Single Market
10Directorate-General Energy and Transport / Air Transport Directorate
Internal Successes of theEU Single Aviation Market
Tripling of air travel 1980-2000. Doubling expected by 2020
25% more airlines than in 1990 Emergence of low-cost carriers
1% of capacity in 1996. 26% in 2005
More competition between air carriers Lower fares – price response of traditional carriers to LCC Massive productivity gains More routes with more than two competitors (+300% 1992-2005)
More intra-EU routes (+145% 1992-2005) Since 1998 more intra-Community traffic than domestic
11Directorate-General Energy and Transport / Air Transport Directorate
Congestion and delaysCongestion and delays Airports package – capacity and charges Single European Sky / SESAR
SafetySafety Strengthening EASA
SecuritySecurity CompetitivenessCompetitiveness
Revision of Third Package Fragmentation in globalising economyFragmentation in globalising economy EnvironmentEnvironment
New Challenges Facingthe EU Single Aviation Market
12Directorate-General Energy and Transport / Air Transport Directorate
EU-US Liberalisation
Euro-Mediterranean Transport Forum Aviation Working Group 3rd meeting- Brussels 3 May 2007
13Directorate-General Energy and Transport / Air Transport Directorate
Combined share of the US and EU markets close to 60% of world air traffic
Major new opportunities and economic benefits of and open aviation area
Would provide more freedom to the airline industry
More than “open skies”: regulatory convergence component important
The EU wishes to deepen aviation relations with other key partners
Possible Wider Implications
14Directorate-General Energy and Transport / Air Transport Directorate
An additional 26 million extra transatlantic passengers over 5 years (on top of 50 million passengers today)
After 5 years, the market will be 34% higher than without the agreement
Growth in cargo market Consolidated economic benefits
between 6.4 and 12 billion € over 5 years
Could create 80,000 new jobs (equally spread between the US and the EU)
EU-US Benefits
15Directorate-General Energy and Transport / Air Transport Directorate
The EUROMED Market
Euro-Mediterranean Transport Forum Aviation Working Group 3rd meeting- Brussels 3 May 2007
16Directorate-General Energy and Transport / Air Transport Directorate
Common AviationArea by 2010
• 25 Member States• 450 Million Inhabitants • One Single Market
Potential of a Common Aviation
Area by 2010:
48 States900m Inhabitants
17Directorate-General Energy and Transport / Air Transport Directorate
PAX Traffic - AlgeriaPAX Traffic - Algeria
Source: Eurostat
PAXYEARNon-sheduledScheduled Total Change Freight
1993 53.739 1.861.969 1.915.7081994 22.487 1.412.005 1.434.492 -25,1%1995 11.789 1.023.663 1.035.452 -27,8%1996 26.932 1.050.926 1.077.858 4,1%1997 28.453 1.093.763 1.122.216 4,1%1998 42.212 1.175.526 1.217.738 8,5%1999 58.562 1.382.662 1.441.224 18,4%2000 219.474 1.489.118 1.708.592 18,6%2001 318.178 1.728.245 2.046.423 19,8%2002 492.118 1.736.641 2.228.758 8,9%2003 151.582 2.116.431 2.268.013 1,8%2004 104.703 2.257.397 2.362.100 4,1%2005 77.570 2.492.590 2.570.160 8,8%2006 100.379 2.551.116 2.651.495 3,2%
Passenger and freight traffic between EU and Algeria
Passenger traffic between EU and Algeria (Source: Eurostat)
0
500.000
1.000.000
1.500.000
2.000.000
2.500.000
3.000.000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
18Directorate-General Energy and Transport / Air Transport Directorate
PAX Traffic - EgyptPAX Traffic - Egypt
Source: Eurostat
PAXYEAR Non-sheduledScheduled Total Change Freight
1993 712.192 1.163.863 1.876.0551994 603.182 1.182.479 1.785.661 -4,8%1995 924.221 1.533.564 2.457.785 37,6%1996 1.530.771 1.535.140 3.065.911 24,7%1997 1.807.083 1.601.934 3.409.017 11,2%1998 1.128.362 1.609.265 2.737.627 -19,7%1999 2.895.520 2.145.376 5.040.896 84,1%2000 3.834.082 2.313.303 6.147.385 22,0%2001 3.403.392 2.008.777 5.412.169 -12,0%2002 3.599.276 2.055.647 5.654.923 4,5%2003 3.988.318 2.411.917 6.400.235 13,2%2004 6.181.001 3.042.740 9.223.741 44,1%2005 6.344.341 3.272.089 9.616.430 4,3%2006 6.086.117 3.450.146 9.536.263 -0,8%
Passenger and freight traffic between EU and Egypt
Passenger traffic between EU and Egypt (Source: Eurostat)
0
2.000.000
4.000.000
6.000.000
8.000.000
10.000.000
12.000.000
19Directorate-General Energy and Transport / Air Transport Directorate
PAX Traffic - IsraelPAX Traffic - Israel
Source: Eurostat
PAX FreightYEAR Non-sheduledScheduled Total Change
1993 744.315 1.994.265 2.738.5801994 716.439 2.296.443 3.012.882 10,0%1995 866.605 2.594.111 3.460.716 14,9%1996 905.424 2.427.739 3.333.163 -3,7%1997 1.052.782 2.496.885 3.549.667 6,5%1998 1.270.329 2.729.980 4.000.309 12,7%1999 1.478.596 3.183.727 4.662.323 16,5%2000 1.531.712 3.317.306 4.849.018 4,0%2001 762.294 2.846.000 3.608.294 -25,6%2002 859.970 2.400.839 3.260.809 -9,6%2003 913.167 2.668.265 3.581.432 9,8%2004 910.464 3.159.258 4.069.722 13,6%2005 884.898 3.490.579 4.375.477 7,5%2006 1.008.931 3.748.296 4.757.227 8,7%
Passenger and freight traffic between EU and Israel
Passenger traffic between EU and Israel (Source: Eurostat)
0
1.000.000
2.000.000
3.000.000
4.000.000
5.000.000
6.000.000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
20Directorate-General Energy and Transport / Air Transport Directorate
PAX Traffic - JordanPAX Traffic - Jordan
Source: Eurostat
PAX FreightYEARNon-sheduledScheduled Total Change
1993 23.298 329.312 352.6101994 18.662 394.731 413.393 17,2%1995 28.061 428.816 456.877 10,5%1996 37.489 416.686 454.175 -0,6%1997 36.234 464.508 500.742 10,3%1998 30.417 489.084 519.501 3,7%1999 45.983 590.075 636.058 22,4%2000 74.345 693.319 767.664 20,7%2001 38.253 590.700 628.953 -18,1%2002 18.136 523.612 541.749 -13,9%2003 55.632 565.785 621.417 14,7%2004 98.992 704.859 803.851 29,4%2005 76.887 752.334 829.221 3,2%2006 26.811 726.334 753.145 -9,2%
Passenger and freight traffic between EU and Jordan
Passenger traffic between EU and Jordan (Source: Eurostat)
0
100.000
200.000
300.000
400.000
500.000
600.000
700.000
800.000
900.000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
21Directorate-General Energy and Transport / Air Transport Directorate
PAX Traffic - LebanonPAX Traffic - Lebanon
Source: Eurostat
PAXYEARNon-sheduledScheduled Total Change Freight
1993 10.055 403.817 413.8721994 3.712 455.749 459.461 11,0%1995 3.950 488.568 492.518 7,2%1996 4.446 463.029 467.475 -5,1%1997 11.034 543.357 554.391 18,6%1998 13.821 635.331 649.152 17,1%1999 12.851 718.662 731.513 12,7%2000 12.945 764.783 777.728 6,3%2001 11.838 838.880 850.718 9,4%2002 17.344 789.391 806.735 -5,2%2003 28.140 998.354 1.026.494 27,2%2004 25.693 1.133.912 1.159.605 13,0%2005 33.930 1.092.286 1.126.216 -2,9%2006 21.153 841.081 862.234 -23,4%
Passenger and freight traffic between EU and Lebanon
Passenger traffic between EU and Lebanon(Source: Eurostat)
0
200.000
400.000
600.000
800.000
1.000.000
1.200.000
1.400.000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
22Directorate-General Energy and Transport / Air Transport Directorate
PAX Traffic - LybiaPAX Traffic - Lybia
Source: Eurostat
PAXYEARNon-sheduledScheduled Total Change Freight
1993 662 1.525 2.1871994 565 565 -74,2%1995 21 21 -96,3%1996 37 37 76,2%1997 46 46 24,3%1998 52 52 13,0%1999 944 109.697 110.641 212671,2%2000 3.659 185.541 189.200 71,0%2001 467 286.939 287.406 51,9%2002 3.195 281.913 285.108 -0,8%2003 2.090 298.454 300.544 5,4%2004 7.442 350.672 358.114 19,2%2005 11.561 418.988 430.549 20,2%2006 14.981 458.995 473.976 10,1%
Passenger and freight traffic between EU and Libya
Passenger traffic between EU and Libya(Source: Eurostat)
0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
350.000
400.000
450.000
500.000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
23Directorate-General Energy and Transport / Air Transport Directorate
PAX Traffic - MoroccoPAX Traffic - Morocco
Source: Eurostat
PAXYEARNon-sheduledScheduled Total Change Sched
1993 1.100.632 1.452.331 2.552.9631994 1.063.298 1.590.954 2.654.252 4,0% 9,5%1995 888.090 1.566.615 2.454.705 -7,5% -1,5%1996 854.965 1.726.933 2.581.898 5,2% 10,2%1997 995.822 1.812.599 2.808.421 8,8% 5,0%1998 1.186.364 2.060.798 3.247.162 15,6% 13,7%1999 1.439.869 2.322.180 3.762.049 15,9% 12,7%2000 1.559.679 2.562.295 4.121.974 9,6% 10,3%2001 1.508.767 2.614.134 4.122.901 0,0% 2,0%2002 1.217.424 2.722.782 3.940.207 -4,4% 4,2%2003 1.416.164 2.596.666 4.012.830 1,8% -4,6%2004 1.722.211 2.950.352 4.672.563 16,4% 13,6%2005 1.820.883 3.808.454 5.629.337 20,5% 29,1%2006 1.638.049 4.966.901 6.604.950 17,3% 30,4%
Passenger and freight traffic between EU and Morocco
Passenger traffic between EU and Morocco (Source: Eurostat)
0
1.000.000
2.000.000
3.000.000
4.000.000
5.000.000
6.000.000
7.000.000
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
24Directorate-General Energy and Transport / Air Transport Directorate
PAX Traffic - SyriaPAX Traffic - Syria
Source: Eurostat
PAXYEARNon-sheduledScheduled Total Change Freight
1993 1.444 197.523 198.9671994 1.908 232.824 234.732 18,0%1995 2.655 263.821 266.476 13,5%1996 7.780 270.897 278.677 4,6%1997 2.320 276.127 278.447 -0,1%1998 3.470 307.038 310.508 11,5%1999 6.066 381.670 387.736 24,9%2000 7.794 403.807 411.601 6,2%2001 9.614 452.695 462.309 12,3%2002 14.071 441.068 455.139 -1,6%2003 3.701 502.647 506.348 11,3%2004 23.810 626.574 650.384 28,4%2005 4.370 629.738 634.108 -2,5%2006 17.520 612.854 630.374 -0,6%
Passenger and freight traffic between EU and Syria
Passenger traffic between EU and Syria(Source: Eurostat)
0
100.000
200.000
300.000
400.000
500.000
600.000
700.000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
25Directorate-General Energy and Transport / Air Transport Directorate
PAX Traffic - TunisiaPAX Traffic - Tunisia
Source: Eurostat
PAXYEAR Non-sheduledScheduled Total Change Sched Freight
1993 2.996.792 1.513.607 4.510.3991994 3.065.571 1.917.481 4.983.052 10,5% 26,7%1995 2.861.150 2.022.225 4.883.375 -2,0% 5,5%1996 2.897.093 2.091.565 4.988.658 2,2% 3,4%1997 3.491.592 2.091.447 5.583.039 11,9% 0,0%1998 3.794.690 2.197.879 5.992.569 7,3% 5,1%1999 4.553.307 2.399.787 6.953.094 16,0% 9,2%2000 4.919.967 2.383.250 7.303.217 5,0% -0,7%2001 4.936.972 2.519.802 7.456.774 2,1% 5,7%2002 3.977.026 2.305.201 6.282.228 -15,8% -8,5%2003 3.787.929 2.339.675 6.127.604 -2,5% 1,5%2004 5.050.045 2.379.717 7.429.762 21,3% 1,7%2005 5.492.894 2.700.317 8.193.211 10,3% 13,5%2006 5.604.354 2.889.112 8.493.466 3,7% 7,0%
Passenger and freight traffic between EU and Tunisia
Passenger traffic between EU and Tunisia (Source: Eurostat)
0
1.000.000
2.000.000
3.000.000
4.000.000
5.000.000
6.000.000
7.000.000
8.000.000
9.000.000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
26Directorate-General Energy and Transport / Air Transport Directorate
PAX Traffic - TurkeyPAX Traffic - Turkey
Source: Eurostat
PAXYEARNon-sheduled Scheduled Total Change Freight
1993 6.717.988 2.766.485 9.484.4731994 5.851.250 3.236.396 9.087.646 -4,2%1995 7.818.018 3.758.286 11.576.304 27,4%1996 8.865.497 4.293.751 13.159.248 13,7%1997 10.528.205 4.217.735 14.745.940 12,1%1998 9.492.047 4.852.850 14.344.897 -2,7%1999 6.788.237 4.777.350 11.565.587 -19,4%2000 8.799.583 5.541.385 14.340.968 24,0%2001 10.999.163 5.618.914 16.618.077 15,9%2002 12.143.342 5.917.274 18.060.617 8,7%2003 10.486.738 6.808.068 17.294.806 -4,2%2004 13.152.098 7.964.394 21.116.492 22,1%2005 14.192.447 9.536.203 23.728.650 12,4%2006 11.083.923 10.131.905 21.215.828 -10,6%
Passenger and freight traffic between EU and Turkey
Passenger traffic between EU and Turkey (Source: Eurostat)
0
5.000.000
10.000.000
15.000.000
20.000.000
25.000.000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
27Directorate-General Energy and Transport / Air Transport Directorate
0
1.000.000
2.000.000
3.000.000
4.000.000
5.000.000
6.000.000
7.000.000
8.000.000
9.000.000
10.000.000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Algeria
Egypt
Israel
Jordan
Lebanon
Morocco
Syria
Tunisia
Passenger Traffic with the EU
(Source: Eurostat)
28Directorate-General Energy and Transport / Air Transport Directorate
Conclusions
Successful EU-wide market integration Market access restrictions being lifted Based on more stringent rules
EU’s external aviation policy is a logical consequence of the internal market
World is not standing still Similar regional integration approaches in
other world regions emerging (Asia Pacific, Africa, Latin America)
EUROMED Aviation Integration
Directorate-General Energy and Transport / Air Transport Directorate 29
Thank You !
