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Slides from our seminar on 31 March
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FUNDING AND DELIVERING DEVELOPMENT AND RENEWAL
Retail led regeneration
31st March 2011
Date MonthDate Month
Retail led Regeneration in LondonRetail Trends
Stuart Morley, Head of Research
31 March 2011
gva.co.uk
gva.co.ukShort presentation title here / November 2010Retail Trends 31 March 2011
Factors affecting Vitality and Viability of Town Centres
• Economic Trends• Planning & Development Trends• Retailer Trends• Property Market Trends• Effect on Town Centres of new
Development
gva.co.ukShort presentation title here / November 2010Retail Trends 31 March 2011
Economic Trends
• Demographic trends– Population growth, geographical differences
and ageing of population• Income and expenditure trends
– Strong growth over recent decades, but weaker outlook
• Internet– When will growth level off and what effects
will it have?• Mobility
– Huge past rise in car ownership, but are we nearing saturation?
gva.co.ukShort presentation title here / November 2010Retail Trends 31 March 2011
Population growth
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
North Eas
t
North W
est
Yorkshire
and The H
umber
East M
idlands
West M
idlands
East o
f Englan
d
London
South East
South Wes
tUK
England
Wales
Scotla
nd
Northern
Irelan
d
1998-2008 2008-2018
gva.co.ukShort presentation title here / November 2010Retail Trends 31 March 2011
Expenditure per head growth
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
1961-1971 1971-1981 1981-1991 1991-2001 2001-2007 2010-2020
Ann
ual a
vera
ge g
row
th
Convenience Goods Comparison Goods
forecast (Experian)
gva.co.ukShort presentation title here / November 2010Retail Trends 31 March 2011
Online annual spend per head
560606
653 691745
794850
905977
1058
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Ann
ual S
pend
per
Hea
d (£
)
gva.co.ukShort presentation title here / November 2010Retail Trends 31 March 2011
Car ownership
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
%
0 cars 1 car 2 cars 3+ cars
gva.co.ukShort presentation title here / November 2010Retail Trends 31 March 2011
Planning and development trends
• Planning policy– PPG6, PPS6 and PPS4– New national planning guidance– Localism and planning– Agenda for growth– competition– Return of EZs
gva.co.ukShort presentation title here / November 2010Retail Trends 31 March 2011
Planning and development trends
• Floor space stock changes– Town centre and edge/out-of-centre
development– Town centre development by size of town– Mixed use schemes in town centres
gva.co.ukShort presentation title here / November 2010Retail Trends 31 March 2011
Town Centre and edge/out-of-centre development
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80Percentage of newly built retail floorspace inATCAs (without 300m buffer)Percentage of newly built retail floorspace inATCAs (with 300m buffer)Trendline: Percentage of newly built retailfloorspace in ATCAs (without 300m buffer)Trendline: Percentage of newly built retailfloorspace in ATCAs (with 300m buffer)
gva.co.ukShort presentation title here / November 2010Retail Trends 31 March 2011
Town Centre Retail Development (ex London)
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2009
(sq
m)
0 - 50,000 50,000-75,000 75,000-100,000 100,000 -250,000 250,000+
gva.co.ukShort presentation title here / November 2010Retail Trends 31 March 2011
Town centre development activity
gva.co.ukShort presentation title here / November 2010Retail Trends 31 March 2011
Retailer Trends
• Consolidation of retail activity– Decrease in number of units– Increase in size of units
• Consolidation into larger town centres
• Increase in range of goods sold– Larger unit size required– Food stores
gva.co.ukShort presentation title here / November 2010Retail Trends 31 March 2011
Change in size of stores
gva.co.ukShort presentation title here / November 2010Retail Trends 31 March 2011
Property market trends
• Out performance by retail warehousing– Retail warehousing compared to
town centres– Stand alone retail warehouse units– Retail parks– Fashion parks
• Rental growth by different size of town centre
gva.co.ukShort presentation title here / November 2010Retail Trends 31 March 2011
Effect of new development on town centres
• Could all retail expenditure growth be accommodated in town centres?
• How can vehicle growth be accommodated in town centres?
• How can all leisure and office development be accommodated in town centres?
• Problems for historic centres• Effect of out-of-centre development on town
centres• Effect of new town centre development
on other town centres, particularly in London
gva.co.ukShort presentation title here / November 2010Retail Trends 31 March 2011
London’s Major Retail Centres & newdevelopment
gva.co.ukShort presentation title here / November 2010Retail Trends 31 March 2011
Recommendations
• Improve town centre environment• Unlock stalled developments• Limit out-of-centre development• Plan proactively for new
development + Action• Improve town centre management
on a day-to-day basis• Support for local businesses• Maximise accessibility
FUNDING AND DELIVERING DEVELOPMENT AND RENEWAL
Retail led regeneration
31st March 2011
Brent Cross CricklewoodA New Town Centre
Future of LondonRetail Led Regeneration in Barnet - Brent Cross Cricklewood
Stewart Murray – Director of Planning, Housing and RegenerationTony Westbrook – Principal Project Manager
Barnet: Locational context
London’s Growth Corridors
Growth areas in Barnet
The opportunity - about the area
• 250 Acres• Key gateway location• Bordered by heavy infrastructure• Very few connections• Retail units and parking• Low density industry and housing• Poorly landscaped open spaces• Few community facilities• Needs major investment
The vision
• 7,500 homes, 27,000 jobs• 14 million sq. ft. total (1.3m sq m)• 4 million sq. ft. office district• Transformed BX Shopping Centre• Strong connection across the A406• Exceptional parks and open spaces• New mainline train station• New Brent Cross bus station • 3 new schools, new health facilities• Sports and leisure centre • New bridges and road junctions• Naturalised River Brent
Contributing to London’s future
• Long neglected part of London• London Plan addressing the suburbs• Supportive strategic and local planning policy• Massive public transport investment including highway improvements• New train station & infrastructure• Parks and community facilities• Staged development over 20 years
Conclusions
• Scheme addresses long term problems affecting a very wide area
• New Town Centre – homes, shops, jobs, transport, community, environment
• An ambitious and comprehensive approach that will transform this important area
Town Centre Business Forums
• To enable businesses to take responsibility for marketing and promotion of their town centres
• To provide a conduit for local businesses to inform policy development
• To help local businesses work together
• Currently established in Edgware, Chipping Barnet and Finchley Church End
Our next event in this series is on 10 May on delivering localism through the planning system.
Visit www.futureoflondon.org.uk for more information.