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11/11/2013
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Development of the European TIMES Model
(ETM-UCL)
Baltazar Solano Rodriguez
UCL Energy Institute, University College London
www.ucl.ac.uk/energy
ETM-UCL: Overview
• ETM-UCL : energy systems model built on the TIMES model generator
• Technologically detailed bottom-up model; dynamic partial equilibrium model approach with inter-temporal objective function minimising total discounted system costs
• Based on the 16 region TIAM-UCL
• ETM-UCL is calibrated to 2010 data
• Base-year energy-service demand is exogenous and it is projected for the future using drivers such as GDP, population, output by sector, etc.
• Each region is modelled in its supply, power generation and demand sectors.
• The European regions are linked through the trade in crude oil, hard coal, pipeline gas, LNG, petroleum products, biomass, electricity and emission permits.
• ETM-UCL designed for and currently used in two FP7 EU research projects (http://cecilia2050.eu/, http://www.emininn.eu/)
• More ETM-UCL info: http://www.ucl.ac.uk/energy-models
Development of the European TIMES model UCL
Baltazar Solano Rodriguez
11/11/2013
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11 regions, EU28+3
SDF UKI
NOI
FRA
DEU BNL
EEN
IBE IAM EES
SWZ
Development of the European TIMES model UCL
Baltazar Solano Rodriguez
List of Regions and Countries
Region Country
BNL Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg
SWZ Switzerland
DEU Germany
FRA France
IAM Italy, Austria and Malta
IBE Spain and Portugal
NOI Norway and Iceland
SDF Sweden, Denmark and Finland
UKI UK and Ireland
EEN Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland
EES Slovenia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, Cyprus and Croatia
Development of the European TIMES model UCL
Baltazar Solano Rodriguez
11/11/2013
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Energy consumption and production in the EU
Development of the European TIMES model UCL
Baltazar Solano Rodriguez
Energy consumption and production in the EU
Development of the European TIMES model UCL
Baltazar Solano Rodriguez
11/11/2013
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Data sources
• Base year – IEA Energy Balance statistics, 2010
• Demand drivers – Cambridge Econometrics, IEA 2DS
• Technologies – TIAM-UCL database, IEA ETSAP Technology database
• Other resources – Eurostat, European Commission studies
• Oil & Gas supply cost curves and availability – BUEGO (Bottom-up economic and geological oil field production
model)
Development of the European TIMES model UCL
Baltazar Solano Rodriguez
Trade Coal, Germany (IEA, 2010)
98.79%
1.21%
Imports
Exports
SDF
UKI
FRA
DEU BNL
EEN
IBE IAM
EES
RoW
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Electricity
SDF UKI
FRA
DEU BNL
EEN
IBE IAM
EES
Development of the European TIMES model UCL
Baltazar Solano Rodriguez
Scenarios • Common Assumptions
– 2020 GHG emissions & renewables targets reached (‘202020’ targets – except energy efficiency)
– Closure of existing nuclear follows end of current licences and phase-out plans. No new nuclear in Germany, Italy, Austria and Malta. No restrictions elsewhere.
– GDP, population & households projections match IEA 2012 Energy Technology Perspectives data for EU
Driver 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
Population 506m 511m 516m 515m 512m
Households 217m - 238m - 252m
GDP Growth 2% (2009-20) 1.8% (2020-30) 1.7% (2030-50)
Development of the European TIMES model UCL
Baltazar Solano Rodriguez
11/11/2013
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Scenarios
• Reference – No targets after 2020
– IEA ETP 6DS prices for oil, gas and coal imports
• ‘Fragmented Policy’ – Binding Target of 60% GHG reduction below 1990, by 2050
– ‘Firm’ national policies achieved (e.g. UK Climate Change Act)
– IEA ETP 4DS prices for oil, gas and coal imports
• ‘Policy Success’ – Binding Target of 80% GHG reduction below 1990, by 2050
– ‘Firm’ national policies achieved (e.g. UK Climate Change Act)
– IEA ETP 2DS prices for oil, gas and coal imports
Development of the European TIMES model UCL
Baltazar Solano Rodriguez
Electricity Generation Trends
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Elec
tric
ity
Gen
erat
ion
(EJ
)
Wind - onshore
Wind - offshore
Tidal
Solar PV
Oil
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Natural Gas
Coal
Biomass
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Elec
tric
ity
Gen
erat
ion
(EJ
)
Wind - onshore
Wind - offshore
Solar PV
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Natural Gas
Coal
Biomass CCS
Biomass
Development of the European TIMES model UCL
Baltazar Solano Rodriguez
Reference
80%
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Road Transport Trends
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Fuel
co
nsu
mp
tio
n b
y al
l ro
ad t
ran
spo
rtt
(EJ)
Hydrogen
Electricty
Ethenol/methanol
LPG
Natural gas
Bio-diesel
Diesel
Gasoline
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Fuel
co
nsu
mp
tio
n b
y al
l ro
ad t
ran
spo
rtt
(EJ)
Hydrogen
Electricty
Ethenol/methanol
LPG
Natural gas
Bio-diesel
Diesel
Gasoline
Development of the European TIMES model UCL
Baltazar Solano Rodriguez
Reference
80%
Regional GHG Trends (80% Scenario)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
by
regi
on
(G
tCO
2)
UKI
SDF
IBE
IAM
FRA
EES
EEN
DEU
BNL
Development of the European TIMES model UCL
Baltazar Solano Rodriguez
11/11/2013
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Sectoral CO2 trends
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Emis
sio
ns
by
Sect
or
(GtC
O2)
Upstream
Transport
Residential Sector
Industry
CO2 Capture Electricity
Electricity
Commercial Sector
Agriculture
Total emissions
Total (net CCS)
0
1
2
3
4
5
Emis
sio
ns
by
Sect
or
(GtC
O2)
Upstream
Transport
Residential Sector
Industry
Electricity
Commercial Sector
Agriculture
Total emissions
Total (net CCS)
Total (net CCS and ATM sinks)
Development of the European TIMES model UCL
Baltazar Solano Rodriguez
Electricity Inv. Costs & Marginal CO2 Price
Development of the European TIMES model UCL
Baltazar Solano Rodriguez
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
€/tCO2 Reference
Fragmented Policy
Policy Success
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
€Billion Reference
Fragemented Policy
Policy Success
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Future work
• CECILIA2050 and EmInInn
• Improve electricity and gas trade modelling
• Update costs of power sector technologies
• Elastic demand functionality
• Soft-link to other UCL models (e.g. TIAM-UCL)
Development of the European TIMES model UCL
Baltazar Solano Rodriguez
Thank you [email protected]
