30
Development and Evaluation of Global and Regional emissions for Atmospheric Modeling and Forecasting Claire GRANIER University Pierre and Marie Curie/CNRS, Paris, France NOAA Earth System Res. Lab, Boulder, CO, USA Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany Hugo Denier van der Gon TNO, Utrecht, The Netherlands

Development and Evaluation of Global and Regional emissions for ...icap.atmos.und.edu/AERP/MeetingPDFs/SourceSink/Granier_MACC-E… · Perform systematic evaluations of publicly available

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    1

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Development and Evaluation of Global and Regional emissions for ...icap.atmos.und.edu/AERP/MeetingPDFs/SourceSink/Granier_MACC-E… · Perform systematic evaluations of publicly available

Development and Evaluation of Global and Regional emissions for Atmospheric

Modeling and Forecasting

Claire GRANIERUniversity Pierre and Marie Curie/CNRS, Paris, France

NOAA Earth System Res. Lab, Boulder, CO, USAMax-Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany

Hugo Denier van der GonTNO, Utrecht, The Netherlands

Page 2: Development and Evaluation of Global and Regional emissions for ...icap.atmos.und.edu/AERP/MeetingPDFs/SourceSink/Granier_MACC-E… · Perform systematic evaluations of publicly available

Questions (and Answers?): Global Emissions

1. Do we have consistent historical emissions?

2. Can we trust current datasets/can we recommend a “best” dataset?

3. Can we compare emissions by sectors?

4. What about anthropogenic VOCs?

+ Where can you find many of the datasets used here

Followed by: Regional Emissions (Hugo)

Page 3: Development and Evaluation of Global and Regional emissions for ...icap.atmos.und.edu/AERP/MeetingPDFs/SourceSink/Granier_MACC-E… · Perform systematic evaluations of publicly available

The ACCMIP datasetACCMIP = Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project

Simulations in support to the the IPCC 5th Assessment report (2013)

Consistency between past/current/future Dataset with documentation and references

More details: Lamarque et al., ACP 2010 ; van Vuuren et al., Clim. Change, 2011Granier et al., Climatic Change, 2011; Lamarque et al, Climatic Change, 2011

1. Do we have consistent historical emissions?

Page 4: Development and Evaluation of Global and Regional emissions for ...icap.atmos.und.edu/AERP/MeetingPDFs/SourceSink/Granier_MACC-E… · Perform systematic evaluations of publicly available

ACCMIP = Consistent long-term emissions dataset

Developed in 2008-2009 by an international group

ACCMIP emissions dataset:

Anthropogenic and biomass burning emissionsPeriod covered: 1850 – 2000Available for each decade no seasonal variation 0.5x0.5 degree

Large set of species:CH4, CO, NOx, SO2, NH3 Many VOCsBC and OC

Page 5: Development and Evaluation of Global and Regional emissions for ...icap.atmos.und.edu/AERP/MeetingPDFs/SourceSink/Granier_MACC-E… · Perform systematic evaluations of publicly available

• 1960‐2000: ACCMIP (described in Lamarque et al., 2010), decadal• After 2000, no global emissions dataset available • (Emissions Update: common issuem specially for global emissions) Use of one of the IPCC future scenarios (RCP 8.5) for 2005 and 2010 that uses some regional information for Europe, N. America &Asia

Global MACCity emissions inventory (Developed as part of EU projects: MACC and CityZen + PEGASOS)

• Linear interpolation for  1960‐2010 of ACCMIP  and RCP8.5 emissions

• Implementation of seasonal emissions                          from the RETRO emissions (Schultz et al., 2007)

More information on MACCity in Granier et al., Climatic Change, 2011

MACCity anthropogenic emissions:

Page 6: Development and Evaluation of Global and Regional emissions for ...icap.atmos.und.edu/AERP/MeetingPDFs/SourceSink/Granier_MACC-E… · Perform systematic evaluations of publicly available

Perform systematic evaluations of publicly available surface emissions

Open to all people willing to propose new data / analyze results

Start with the 1980-2010 period

Only publicly available gridded inventories considered so far

Focus on: CO, NOx, SO2 and BC (under way: CH4, OC, total NMVOCs and NH3)

Focus on total emissions, start to look at spatial distribution

2. Can we trust current datasets/can we recommend a “best” dataset

Page 7: Development and Evaluation of Global and Regional emissions for ...icap.atmos.und.edu/AERP/MeetingPDFs/SourceSink/Granier_MACC-E… · Perform systematic evaluations of publicly available

More details: Granier et al., 2011(26 authors)

Page 8: Development and Evaluation of Global and Regional emissions for ...icap.atmos.und.edu/AERP/MeetingPDFs/SourceSink/Granier_MACC-E… · Perform systematic evaluations of publicly available

With more recent inventories

Page 9: Development and Evaluation of Global and Regional emissions for ...icap.atmos.und.edu/AERP/MeetingPDFs/SourceSink/Granier_MACC-E… · Perform systematic evaluations of publicly available

OC emissions (work under way)

Page 10: Development and Evaluation of Global and Regional emissions for ...icap.atmos.und.edu/AERP/MeetingPDFs/SourceSink/Granier_MACC-E… · Perform systematic evaluations of publicly available

More OC comparisons Based on a few new observationsFrom C. Liousse’sgroup

OC Emissions from Africa + South America= 29% of total

Page 11: Development and Evaluation of Global and Regional emissions for ...icap.atmos.und.edu/AERP/MeetingPDFs/SourceSink/Granier_MACC-E… · Perform systematic evaluations of publicly available

NH3 emissions (work under way)

2005

20002005

2000

20002005

Page 12: Development and Evaluation of Global and Regional emissions for ...icap.atmos.und.edu/AERP/MeetingPDFs/SourceSink/Granier_MACC-E… · Perform systematic evaluations of publicly available

Summmary: ratio between highest and lowest emissions

Green:1 to 1.25

Yellow:1.25 to 1.5

Orange:1.5 to 1.75

Grey:Above 1.75

BUT: consensus ≠ accuracy

Page 13: Development and Evaluation of Global and Regional emissions for ...icap.atmos.und.edu/AERP/MeetingPDFs/SourceSink/Granier_MACC-E… · Perform systematic evaluations of publicly available

CO emissions from other global datasets for 2005 Inclusion of EDGAR-v42 (no BC and OC yet provided)

Page 14: Development and Evaluation of Global and Regional emissions for ...icap.atmos.und.edu/AERP/MeetingPDFs/SourceSink/Granier_MACC-E… · Perform systematic evaluations of publicly available

Answer: not easily, since no common sectors description

Climate community: European air qualitycommunity:

Other countries use different sectors split

Other issue: Global inventories: provide BC and OC Regional/regulatory inventories: provide only PMs

3. Can we compare emissions by sectors?

Page 15: Development and Evaluation of Global and Regional emissions for ...icap.atmos.und.edu/AERP/MeetingPDFs/SourceSink/Granier_MACC-E… · Perform systematic evaluations of publicly available

Road transport CO emissions for differentregions

Page 16: Development and Evaluation of Global and Regional emissions for ...icap.atmos.und.edu/AERP/MeetingPDFs/SourceSink/Granier_MACC-E… · Perform systematic evaluations of publicly available

Top 5 emitters of main air pollutants in 2005

2005 Tg CO 2005 Tg NMVOC 2005 Tg NO2 2005 Tg SO2

China 103.20 China 17.22 China 22.45 China 36.36

Brazil 96.42 USA 11.56 USA 14.92 USA 10.81

USA 61.52 Brazil 10.47 Int. shipping 12.98 Int. 

shipping 7.87

India 52.77 Russia 8.39 India 8.19 India 7.41

Indonesia 49.65 Indonesia 8.22 Russia 4.30 Russia 6.71

Another sector of growing importance: Maritime transport

Page 17: Development and Evaluation of Global and Regional emissions for ...icap.atmos.und.edu/AERP/MeetingPDFs/SourceSink/Granier_MACC-E… · Perform systematic evaluations of publicly available

Ship emissions: large discrepancies between global and regional emissionsWill be addressed in MACC-II in collaboration with the ACCESS European project (management of the Arctic)

Changes in NOx emissions in Europe1990-2010: ships will be the largestcontributor to NOx emissions by ~2015-2020

Page 18: Development and Evaluation of Global and Regional emissions for ...icap.atmos.und.edu/AERP/MeetingPDFs/SourceSink/Granier_MACC-E… · Perform systematic evaluations of publicly available

VOCs emissions reported only as total NMVOCs

Not much informaiton on VOCs speciation

Many studies: VOCs speciation based on the RETRO emissions inventory (http://retro.enes.org ), based on a speciation developed by TNO in the 1990s

Methodology:

No recent data availableR remains CONSTANT for ALL years

[Emission VOC_x]  =  [Total VOCs emissions] * R (lat,lon)

4. What about anthropogenic VOCs

Page 19: Development and Evaluation of Global and Regional emissions for ...icap.atmos.und.edu/AERP/MeetingPDFs/SourceSink/Granier_MACC-E… · Perform systematic evaluations of publicly available

LONDON (Marylebone Road)

Ongoing study: collaboration with U. Leicester, UK

Collect individual VOCs data when available (not many!)Von Schneidemesser et al. (Atm. Env., 2010) Compare VOCs/CO ratio: observed concentrations and emissions

Observations:Red

Emissions:Black

1

100

10

Page 20: Development and Evaluation of Global and Regional emissions for ...icap.atmos.und.edu/AERP/MeetingPDFs/SourceSink/Granier_MACC-E… · Perform systematic evaluations of publicly available

VOCs/CO ratiosIn the Developed world…

In the Developing world…

Los Angeles, CA, USAMexico City, Mexico

Mumbai, IndiaParis, France

Page 21: Development and Evaluation of Global and Regional emissions for ...icap.atmos.und.edu/AERP/MeetingPDFs/SourceSink/Granier_MACC-E… · Perform systematic evaluations of publicly available

CO emission inventory

New VOCs emission inventory

CO & VOCs observational data

VOCs/CO ratios

Developed countries

Developing countries

VOCs/CO ratios

AVRG MAXMIN

Latin America

Asia

AfricaNorth America

Europe

How to test VOCs 

speciation

Page 22: Development and Evaluation of Global and Regional emissions for ...icap.atmos.und.edu/AERP/MeetingPDFs/SourceSink/Granier_MACC-E… · Perform systematic evaluations of publicly available

b) Observational stations (year 2005)i) Trinidad Head (USA)

Ethane (ppb) CO (ppm) Propane (ppb) 

ii) Mace Head (Ireland)Ethane (ppb) CO (ppm) O3 (ppb) 

ObservationsAVRG MAXSTD

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1220

30

40

50

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 120

1

2

3

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 120

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 120

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Page 23: Development and Evaluation of Global and Regional emissions for ...icap.atmos.und.edu/AERP/MeetingPDFs/SourceSink/Granier_MACC-E… · Perform systematic evaluations of publicly available

1. Do we have consistent historical emissions?

2. Can we trust current datasets/can we recommend a “best” dataset?

3. Can we compare emissions by sectors?

4. What about anthropogenic VOCs?

+ Where can you find many of the datasets used here

Page 24: Development and Evaluation of Global and Regional emissions for ...icap.atmos.und.edu/AERP/MeetingPDFs/SourceSink/Granier_MACC-E… · Perform systematic evaluations of publicly available

http://eccad.sedoo.fr Login : enter email Registration : fill in form

The ECCAD database

Page 25: Development and Evaluation of Global and Regional emissions for ...icap.atmos.und.edu/AERP/MeetingPDFs/SourceSink/Granier_MACC-E… · Perform systematic evaluations of publicly available
Page 26: Development and Evaluation of Global and Regional emissions for ...icap.atmos.und.edu/AERP/MeetingPDFs/SourceSink/Granier_MACC-E… · Perform systematic evaluations of publicly available

Example of ECCAD data/output

Page 27: Development and Evaluation of Global and Regional emissions for ...icap.atmos.und.edu/AERP/MeetingPDFs/SourceSink/Granier_MACC-E… · Perform systematic evaluations of publicly available

Visualization of emissions distributions

Temporal variation at a location

Total emitted for different regions

ECCAD tools

Tools development determined by users requests

Page 28: Development and Evaluation of Global and Regional emissions for ...icap.atmos.und.edu/AERP/MeetingPDFs/SourceSink/Granier_MACC-E… · Perform systematic evaluations of publicly available

Biogenic emissions in ECCAD

Coming soon: a MEGAN2 dataset from 1970 to 2010 for 15-20 species

Page 29: Development and Evaluation of Global and Regional emissions for ...icap.atmos.und.edu/AERP/MeetingPDFs/SourceSink/Granier_MACC-E… · Perform systematic evaluations of publicly available

Next steps

GEIA Conference on emissions: June 11-13 in Toulouse, France

Workshop on ship emissions: September 5-6 in Hamburg, Germany

IGAC Conference: Beijing, September 17-21

Page 30: Development and Evaluation of Global and Regional emissions for ...icap.atmos.und.edu/AERP/MeetingPDFs/SourceSink/Granier_MACC-E… · Perform systematic evaluations of publicly available

Where We Are

Where We Want to Go

Documented Data, Data 

Access, & User‐Friendliness

Species‐ and Region‐

Dependent Inventory Methods

Grid Inventories vs. Sector and Area Totals

Infrequent Temporal Availability

Emission Trends vs. Method Changes

State, National, 

Regional and Global Data 

Not Compatible

Issues that Limit Emissions Research