Design Thinking and Foresight Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab Design Thinking and Foresight for Mobile Content & Media Greg Van Alstyne, Associate

Design Thinking and Foresight

Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab

Design Thinking and Foresight for Mobile Content & MediaDesign Thinking and Foresight for Mobile Content & MediaGreg Van Alstyne, Associate Professor, OCADUDirector of Research, Strategic Innovation LabCanada-EU Future Internet Workshop, 21 March 2011



Uncertainty today is not just an occasional, temporary deviation from a reasonable predictability;

it is a basic structural feature of the business environment.

–Pierre Wack, 1985


Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab photo: flickr.com/photos/emio_me/431872537/

How can we foster a rich ecosystem for future mobile content and media?

With rising competition, choice, and business uncertainties, what is the best approach?

Many call for innovation; but what is the target? What is design thinking and why does it matter?What if we could learn to envision possible futures?



The Goal

Innovation with anticipation:a forward view

photo: flickr.com/photos/emio_me/431872537/



systems thinkingvisual thinking

design business

futures

user researchbusiness & policy models

strategic foresight

sLab strategic foresight & innovation model



Innovation is about what people want

Rooted in a heritage of design thinking, our approach places human needs, desires, behaviour and culture at the heart of

‣problem finding‣problem framing ‣problem solving


Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab photo: flickr.com/photos/emio_me/431872537/

What is strategic foresight?

Foresight involves thinking about, debating, planning, and actively shaping the future

Foresight makes sense of emerging signals from science and technology, socio-cultural domains, markets, legal and political environments



Foresight

Horizon scanningSignals analysisTrends extrapolationChange drivers+blockersScenario planningWildcards+backcasting

Business+Design

Market researchDesign ethnographySketching+prototypingService blueprintBusiness modelingStrategic communications

Foresight & innovation methods compared



Foresight methods

Adapted from Rafael Popper, “Foresight Methodology.” In Handbook of Technology Foresight, 2008,



Foresight Innovation ProductsServices

FinancialPerformance

KnowledgeCapital

Foresight feeds the innovation funnel

War Games at RAND Corporation, 1958. Photo Leonard Mccombe, Time Life/Getty images

Foresight is born in post-War research



Foresight spun off: from military to commercial



Design thinking(Herbert Simon 1969)

Scenarios thinking(Global Business Network 1990s)

DefineResearchIdeatePrototypeChooseImplement Learn

Orient

Explore

Synthesize

Act

Monitor

Foresight and design thinking: closely related



Trends are visible, directional patterns of change, surface ripples that rise and fall

Driving forces (drivers), like deep ocean currents, are structural patterns of power or influence such as global competition or urban migration

Predetermined elements, like rocks in the sea bed, are features largely predictable in any scenario

Critical uncertainties are drivers of significant import, which are unpredictable and difficult to callflickr.com/photos/andie712b/4104141524/

Foresight terminology

Principal PartnersLab at OCAD University

Made possible by OMDCon behalf of the Ministry of Culture

Strategic Foresight for Ontario’s Cultural Media Industries

What will our media and entertainment look like by 2020?



2020 Media FuturesProject Deliverables

Horizon Scanning Signals and Trends

Industry Roundtables Drivers of Change

Delphi Survey Critical Uncertainties

Scenarios Workshop Alternative Futures

MediaCamp Implications for Action

Expert Interviews Distinctive Voices

Visualization/PublicationKey Findings/Messages



2020 Media FuturesIndustry Roundtables

Book, Magazine, Music industriesDecember 7

Film, TV, Interactive Media industriesDecember 14

Professor Suzanne Stein and Karl Schroeder moderated.



2020 Media FuturesDriving Forces



2020 Media FuturesDelphi Survey



2020 Media FuturesScenarios

diffusion of innovation

valu

e

ge

nera

tion

measured & risk averse rapid & disruptive

commercially driven

socially driven

Ministry of Investment

Lords of the Cloud

WediaAnt Hill



What can we learn?

How not to fail



How actors and roles may change, creatingnew niches and newopportunities

What can we learn?

Strategic Innovation Lab Ontario College of Art & Design 2009

viability Biz

Design desirability

Tech feasibility

Nintendo Wii Fit

What can we learn?

Category creation



In Summary

We are eager to leverage these interests, experiences, recent work, and strategic foresight methods, namely:

‣Future Media (2020 Media Futures)‣Future Mobile Experience Innovation (MEIC) ‣Rich understanding of North American context

to identify potential research directions and partnerships with Canadian & European colleagues



Many thanks.

Greg Van Alstyne Associate Professor, OCAD [email protected]

Director of ResearchStrategic Innovation Lab (sLab)http://slab.ocad.ca

Project Lead, 2020 Media Futureshttp://2020mediafutures.ca

Documents

Design Thinking and Foresight Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab Design Thinking and Foresight for Mobile Content & Media Greg Van Alstyne, Associate