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Demographic Trends in Russia: Demographic Trends in Russia: Long View of the Past and Long View of the Past and Short View of the Future Short View of the Future Sergei V. Zakharov Institute of Demography (IDEM) State University – Higher School of Economics (HSE) Moscow, Russia [email protected] “Russian Demographic Situation” Informal seminar Carnegie Endowment for International Peace January 26, 2012 Washington D.C.

Demographic Trends in Russia: Long View of the Past and Short View of the Future

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Demographic Trends in Russia: Long View of the Past and Short View of the Future. Sergei V. Zakharov Institute of Demography (IDEM) State University – Higher School of Economics (HSE) Moscow, Russia [email protected]. “Russian Demographic Situation” Informal seminar - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Demographic Trends in Russia:  Long View of the Past and  Short View of the Future

Demographic Trends in Russia: Demographic Trends in Russia: Long View of the Past and Long View of the Past and

Short View of the FutureShort View of the Future

Sergei V. ZakharovInstitute of Demography (IDEM)

State University – Higher School of Economics (HSE)Moscow, Russia

[email protected]

“Russian Demographic Situation”Informal seminar

Carnegie Endowment for International PeaceJanuary 26, 2012Washington D.C.

Page 2: Demographic Trends in Russia:  Long View of the Past and  Short View of the Future

Completed Cohort and Period Total Fertility During the Completed Cohort and Period Total Fertility During the Demographic Transition in Russia (average number of Demographic Transition in Russia (average number of births to a woman by age 50): birth cohorts 1841-1980, births to a woman by age 50): birth cohorts 1841-1980, period 1897-2010period 1897-2010

2

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960

Calendar Year

Birth

s pe

r w

oman

Birth Cohort

Period

Cohort

Source: Zakharov S.V. (2008). Russian Federation: From the first to second demographic transition. Demographic Research. Vol. 19, p.910 (http://www.demographic-research.org/Volumes/Vol19/24/ ). (Updated for 2010 data)

11.21.41.61.8

22.22.42.62.8

1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980

Birth Cohort

Birth

s pe

r wom

an

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Calendar Year

Period

Cohort

1.85-1.90

1.6

Page 3: Demographic Trends in Russia:  Long View of the Past and  Short View of the Future

Period ASFR, Russia: 1979-2010, per 1000Period ASFR, Russia: 1979-2010, per 1000

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

18

19

20

21

22

23

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

24

25

26

27

28

29

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

30

31

32

33

34

35

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

Page 4: Demographic Trends in Russia:  Long View of the Past and  Short View of the Future

The Uncertainty of Forecast ScenariosThe Uncertainty of Forecast Scenarios:: Whether considerable growth of fertility is possible?Whether considerable growth of fertility is possible?

4

Optimism of Policy Makers,Optimism of Policy Makers,

Pessimism of TheoristsPessimism of Theoristsandand

Common Sense of PeopleCommon Sense of People

Page 5: Demographic Trends in Russia:  Long View of the Past and  Short View of the Future

Policy makers and general public show unfounded Policy makers and general public show unfounded optimism: the “fertility problem” seems easily optimism: the “fertility problem” seems easily manageablemanageable and therefore must be solvedand therefore must be solved

At ordinary level, it is believed that the money (benefits) solves everything

The official ideology (including such an active player as the church) rely on the ideas of traditionalism and national patriotism

According to them, the new population policy adopted in 2007, no doubt, gives positive results

Professional skepticism is not taken into account

5

OPTIMISM OF POLICY MAKERSOPTIMISM OF POLICY MAKERS

Page 6: Demographic Trends in Russia:  Long View of the Past and  Short View of the Future

Russian Specialists believe that the Change in Russian Specialists believe that the Change in Future Fertility is not that UncertainFuture Fertility is not that Uncertain

The plausible value is 1.5-1.7 for foreseeable future (up to 2030)

Completed cohort fertility tends to stabilize at this level Special adjusted period fertility measures controlling

for age and parity stand for that Public opinion surveys about desired and expected

number of children support this as well Russian and international experience tell us that family

policy focusing on fertility stimulation mostly has tempo rather than quantum effects

6

PESSIMISM OF THEORISTSPESSIMISM OF THEORISTS

Page 7: Demographic Trends in Russia:  Long View of the Past and  Short View of the Future

‘‘How would Policy Measures-2007 affect your How would Policy Measures-2007 affect your childbearing-related behavior?’, a question of the childbearing-related behavior?’, a question of the RusGGS-2007RusGGS-2007

Would have as many children as planned but sooner then planned – 10%

Would have, perhaps, more children than planned – 8% Will certainly have more children than planned – 1% Measures will have no effect: respondents will not

change their plans regarding the number and timing of births – 81%

7

COMMON SENSE OF PEOPLECOMMON SENSE OF PEOPLE

Page 8: Demographic Trends in Russia:  Long View of the Past and  Short View of the Future

8

Period Parity Progression Ratios: Russia, 1979-2010Period Parity Progression Ratios: Russia, 1979-2010(Proportion of women moving from parity n to parity n+1 during the calendar year)

VISIBLE EFFECTS OF NEW POLICY VISIBLE EFFECTS OF NEW POLICY MEASURESMEASURES??

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Ãî äû

0-->1

1-->2

2-->3

3-->4

4-->5

Page 9: Demographic Trends in Russia:  Long View of the Past and  Short View of the Future

Intentions of having the next child, respondents Intentions of having the next child, respondents aged 25-35, %aged 25-35, %

Parity GGS-2004 GGS-2007 GGS-2011

0 9191 8585 8787

1 7171 7474 7272

2 2929 3232 3232

3 2222 3030 2020

All 6464 6666 6767

COMMON SENSE OF PEOPLECOMMON SENSE OF PEOPLE

Page 10: Demographic Trends in Russia:  Long View of the Past and  Short View of the Future

Actual and Projected CTFR According to Different Actual and Projected CTFR According to Different Scenarios, Russia, 1930-1985 Birth CohortsScenarios, Russia, 1930-1985 Birth Cohorts

1.31.41.51.61.71.81.9

22.12.22.3

1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985

Birth cohort of women

Birth

s pe

r wom

an

Actual Constant period ASFR in 2010

Constant cohort ASFR pattern Trend cohort Q(x, i) in 2001-2006

Trend cohort Q(x,i) in 2006-2010

Page 11: Demographic Trends in Russia:  Long View of the Past and  Short View of the Future

MORTALITYMORTALITY

The Uncertainty of Forecast ScenariosThe Uncertainty of Forecast Scenarios::

11

Mortality Decline is a Challenge and Mortality Decline is a Challenge and a Categorical Imperativea Categorical Imperative

Page 12: Demographic Trends in Russia:  Long View of the Past and  Short View of the Future

Life Expectancy at Birth in G8 Countries, Males (left) Life Expectancy at Birth in G8 Countries, Males (left) and Females (right): 1960-2009and Females (right): 1960-2009

12

50,00

55,00

60,00

65,00

70,00

75,00

80,00

85,00

90,00

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Males

SpainItalyFranceGermany (West)UKJapanUSARussia

50,00

55,00

60,00

65,00

70,00

75,00

80,00

85,00

90,00

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Females

Spain

Italy

France

Germany (West)

UK

Japan

USA

Russia

Page 13: Demographic Trends in Russia:  Long View of the Past and  Short View of the Future

Proportion of Men and Women of Age 20 expected to Proportion of Men and Women of Age 20 expected to live through Age 60: Germany (Western and Eastern), live through Age 60: Germany (Western and Eastern), 1960-2005, and Russia, 1960-2009, %1960-2005, and Russia, 1960-2009, %

13

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Per c

ent

Men

Western Germany

Eastern Germany

Russia

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Per c

ent

Women

Western Germany

Eastern Germany

Russia

Page 14: Demographic Trends in Russia:  Long View of the Past and  Short View of the Future

14

Correlation between Correlation between Life Expectancy Life Expectancy (red curve) and and Age-Standardized Mortality Rate from Alcohol Age-Standardized Mortality Rate from Alcohol PoisoningPoisoning (blue curve): RussiaRussia, 1955-2006 (Е., 1955-2006 (Е. Andreev) Andreev)

Russian “Chronic Disease”

Page 15: Demographic Trends in Russia:  Long View of the Past and  Short View of the Future

The difference in life expectancy at birth between The difference in life expectancy at birth between men and women in selected countries, 2009, HFAmen and women in selected countries, 2009, HFA

Page 16: Demographic Trends in Russia:  Long View of the Past and  Short View of the Future

Infant mortality rate in some countries, HFAInfant mortality rate in some countries, HFA

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Czech Republic Finland Hungary Poland

Portugal Russia EU EU-15

Page 17: Demographic Trends in Russia:  Long View of the Past and  Short View of the Future

Infant mortality in Russia: ROSSTAT estimates and IDEM estimates adjusted for dead children with low birth weight

17,417,818

19,918,618,1

17,417,216,516,9

15,314,6

13,312,4

11,61110,2

9,48,5 8,17,5

19,219,319,6

22,521,220,7

19,819,719 19,4

17,616,8

15,414,3

13,312,6

11,811

10 9,79

7

11

15

19

23

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Official data Taking into account the dead weight of 500-999

Page 18: Demographic Trends in Russia:  Long View of the Past and  Short View of the Future

For Specialists the Uncertainty of Future Mortality For Specialists the Uncertainty of Future Mortality Change is High (1/2)Change is High (1/2)

Reasons for Optimism: A sustained historical downward trend in infant and child

mortality The fight with a dangerous alcohol consumption has started The “Health” national project has substantially increased public

investment in health The program of hypertension control, apparently, has a positive

effect Importation of medical technology actively continues

18

Page 19: Demographic Trends in Russia:  Long View of the Past and  Short View of the Future

Life Expectancy in Several Eastern European Life Expectancy in Several Eastern European Countries: 1970-2007Countries: 1970-2007

Lessons of Neighbors

19

Page 20: Demographic Trends in Russia:  Long View of the Past and  Short View of the Future

Contribution ofContribution of age groups and major classes of age groups and major classes of causes of death to change in life expectancy in causes of death to change in life expectancy in Russia, 2005-2010, malesRussia, 2005-2010, males

-0,05

0,00

0,05

0,10

0,15

0,20

0,25

0

1-4

5-9

10-1

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80-8

4

85+

Ischaemic heart diseases Cerebrovascular diseases Other cardio-vascular diseases

Diseases of the respiratory system Neoplasms Diseases of the digestive system

Injury and poisoning Ill-defined diseases Other

Page 21: Demographic Trends in Russia:  Long View of the Past and  Short View of the Future

Contribution ofContribution of age groups and major classes of age groups and major classes of causes of death to change in life expectancy in causes of death to change in life expectancy in Russia, 2005-2010, femalesRussia, 2005-2010, females

-0,02

0,00

0,02

0,04

0,06

0,08

0,10

0,12

0

1-4

5-9

10-1

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80-8

4

85+

Ischaemic heart diseases Cerebrovascular diseases Other cardio-vascular diseases

Diseases of the respiratory system Neoplasms Diseases of the digestive system

Injury and poisoning Ill-defined diseases Other

Page 22: Demographic Trends in Russia:  Long View of the Past and  Short View of the Future

For Specialists the Uncertainty of Future Mortality For Specialists the Uncertainty of Future Mortality Change is High (2/2)Change is High (2/2)

Reasons for Pessimism: The long-run trend since mid-1960s is negative Significant fluctuations in mortality at middle (working) ages,

which began during the anti-alcohol campaign in the mid of the1980s

No signs of the second epidemiological transition (life expectancy in the elderly population is not increasing)

System of free public health deteriorates. National programs and reforms in public health are chaotic, inconsistent, and often have the character of PR events. The system of expert evaluations of program effectiveness is absent.

22

Page 23: Demographic Trends in Russia:  Long View of the Past and  Short View of the Future

MIGRATIONMIGRATION

The Uncertainty of Forecast ScenariosThe Uncertainty of Forecast Scenarios::

23

Immigration: Salvation or Trojan Horse?Immigration: Salvation or Trojan Horse?

Page 24: Demographic Trends in Russia:  Long View of the Past and  Short View of the Future

24

Net Migration in Russia: registered in 1970-2008 and Net Migration in Russia: registered in 1970-2008 and adjusted after 2002 Census in 1989-2002adjusted after 2002 Census in 1989-2002,, thousands thousands ((annual change of permanent population due to immigrationannual change of permanent population due to immigration))

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

по данным текущего учета по данным переписи населения 2002 года

The Myth of the ‘Rough Stream’

Page 25: Demographic Trends in Russia:  Long View of the Past and  Short View of the Future

Uncertainty of Immigration Future: Inconsistent Uncertainty of Immigration Future: Inconsistent State Policy, Nationalistic Sentiments of Public State Policy, Nationalistic Sentiments of Public

Russian government policy focuses on bureaucratic measures to combat illegal immigration. The policy of integration and absorption is declarative in nature.

Program to bring Russian-speaking and skilled expatriates/ «compatriots» back to Russia is an ineffective propaganda campaign.

Socio-cultural distance between migrants and Russian citizens is growing because of the arrival of the titular ethnic groups from Central Asia

Extremely low tolerance of the Russian population to migrants, bordering on chauvinism. Significant part of the political elite shares the ideas of conservative nationalism.

25

Page 26: Demographic Trends in Russia:  Long View of the Past and  Short View of the Future

Uncertainty of Immigration Future: a fast growth in Uncertainty of Immigration Future: a fast growth in numbers ofnumbers of guest workersguest workers in response to an in response to an increasing increasing demanddemand

In Russia, the disproportion between the vast territory and a shrinking population is increasing

Sustained growth of the Russian economy is hardly possible not only without structural upgrades, or radically higher returns on human capital, but without an increase in migration

The number of migrant workers in the country is increasing rapidly. In 2005 it was 1% of the total employed, in 2010 - more than 10%

Russian business lobby reinforces its interest in immigrants

26

Page 27: Demographic Trends in Russia:  Long View of the Past and  Short View of the Future

Projections of Net Migrants Needed to Avoid Projections of Net Migrants Needed to Avoid Population Decline (Replacement Level of Migration) Population Decline (Replacement Level of Migration) in 2000-2050: Russia and Germany, thousandsin 2000-2050: Russia and Germany, thousands

Germany Russia

ConstantTotal population

ConstantAge group 15-64

ConstantTotal population

ConstantAge group 15-64

2000-2025 6978 11816 11120 159512025-2050 10209 12514 13776 19805Total 17187 24330 24896 35756Averageper year

330 460 470 680

Source: Replacement Migration. United Nations. 2001. ST/ESA/SER.A/20627

Page 28: Demographic Trends in Russia:  Long View of the Past and  Short View of the Future

28

Number of Registered Labor Migrants, millionsNumber of Registered Labor Migrants, millions

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

The total number of labor migrants in Russia is 6-7 millions (estimates of the Independent Center of Migration Studies)

Inescapable Reality