Delivering real-time, advanced satellite products and modelling support to volcano monitoring

and prediction

Steve Tait, IPGP

Susan Loughlin, BGS-NERC

Evoss team, (particular thanks to BGS team)

EVOSS Targets

• to assist in VOLCANO CRISIS MANAGEMENT─ Particularly to provide real-time observation support to

volcano observatories or mandated institutes─ When there is little or no ground-based monitoring

• Focus from SUSTAINED UNREST TO ERUPTION

• Capacity to deal with SEVERAL CRISES AT ONCE

• For LONG LASTING (months to years) and SPATIALLY SCATTERED CRISES

• VERY-HIGH TEMPORAL RESOLUTION is given priority over high spatial resolution, a methodological breakthrough towards REAL-TIME OPERATIONS

• SUSTAINABILITY AND TIMELINESS OF OPERATIONS is a priority

• To develop services within the framework of the EU FP7 GMES programme to respond to major volcanic activity

• To deliver appropriate EO products in formats that are useful and usable for observatories and other authorities via the Virtual Volcano Observatory web portal

• To facilitate integration of EVOSS products in routine monitoring

• To appraise the service, interrogate user feedback and suggest service improvements

EVOSS User-Driven Objectives

User Driven

Observatories o Icelandic Meteorological Office, Icelando Geological Survey of Ugandao Centre d’Etude et Recherche de Djibouti, Djiboutio Geological Survey of Tanzania, Dodoma, Tanzania o Observatoire Volcanologique de Goma, Congo o Observatoire Volcanologique du Karthala, Comoroso Addis Ababa Science Faculty, Ethiopiao Seismic Research Centre, University of the West Indies, Trinidad o Montserrat Volcano Observatory, Montserrato Observatoire Volcanologique de la Soufrière de Guadeloupe, FWIo Observatoire Volcanologique de la Montagne Pelée, Martinique FWIo Observatoire Volcanologique du Piton de la Fournaise, Reuniono Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia e Geofìsica, Cabo Verdeo Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Italy

VAACo Toulouse Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre, France o London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre, UK

Other agreementso ESAo EUMETSATo UNOPS

• 1 Stromboli (Italy) • 2 Etna (Italy)• 3 Jebel Al Tair (Yemen) • 4 Manda Hararo (Ethiopia)• 5 Dalafilla (Ethiopia)• 6 Dabbahu (Ethiopia)• 7 Erta Ale (Ethiopia)• 8 Nyiragongo (Congo) *• 9 Nyamulagira (Congo) *• 10 Ol Doinyo Lengai (Tanzania) • 11 Karthala (Comoros) *• 12 Piton de la Fournaise

(Reunion) *• 13 Soufriere Hills (Montserrat) *• * Hi-Res DEM and Ground Deformation

service active

• Added after start of the project:

14 Eyjafjallajökull (Iceland)15 Grimsvötn (Iceland)16 Nabro (Eritrea)17 Mt. Cameroon (Cameroon)18 Hierro (Canary)19 Jebel Zubair (Yemen)

• Monitored on a regular basis

• Theatre of EVOSS Operations

• EVOSS Services

• ATMOSPHERIC SERVICES─ Sulphur Dioxide by 4 polar orbiting satellites─ Volcanic Ash plumes by geostationary SEVIRI, with an

additional Operation-and-Research agreement with EUMETSAT• HIGH-TEMPERATURE ANOMALY SERVICES

─ Fully automated quantitative exploitation of SEVIRI (15-min repetition rate) and automated off-line use of 2 night-time scenes of MODIS for systematic Cal/Val of results in geometrically diverging zones of the SEVIRI ‘disk’

─ Porting of the technique to other platforms/sensors (JAMI onboard MTSAT-2)

• GROUND DEFORMATION SERVICES─ Integrated exploitation of new, X- band SAR platforms

COSMO-SkyMED over volcanic areas─ DEM Development of a processing strategy for high-

repetition rate rapid mapping, generation of fast, very-high quality, PS constrained Digital Elevation Models

Interaction with end-users

Pre-EVOSS user requirements analysis from ESA Globvolcano project

2010 First users workshop in La Reunion with potential users worldwide including Mexico, DRC, Italy, Ethiopia (users presented their requirements)...

October 2012 First demonstration of the system to users from Europe and the Caribbean (UK)

January 2013 Second demonstration to users from African region (Ethiopia)

June 2013 Third demonstration to users from Geological Survey of Tanzania

Successful demonstration workshops

• Charlotte Vye-Brown (BGS) and Kay Smith (BGS) delivered all the demonstration workshops. June 2013 at the Geological Survey of Tanzania

Demonstration

A detailed user handbook was produced containing instructions on using the service and details on the product metadata

At the demonstration, users were able to work through the handbook whilst interacting with the system.

BGS staff provided basic instruction in EO methodologies as well as how to use the system.

Metadata in the handbook

‘Layer Manipulation’

• Layer Selection

• Metadata

• Legend

• Layer Removal

• Layer Activation

‘Time Series Analysis’

• Detail

Lava flow regime

Modelling support

Explosive column model

Updates to users

• A Newsletter was conceived and keeps users up-to-date with progress.

User feedback

Detailed questionnaires were circulated at the demonstration workshops

Response was overwhelmingly positive with assertions that the service MUST continue!

Concerns about practical issues such as bandwidth availability

Hopes for increased resolution and excitement about Sentinels.

Comprehensive User Feedback is available in an EVOSS report

Perspectives

• Continue to run the system• Reinforce operational robustness• Extend theatre of operations (and hence user base)• Start to integrate physical modelling of the volcanic source

with the automated observing system

Thank you

Radiant Flux determination from SEVIRI and MODIS data at Mt ETNA, July-October 2011

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01/07/11 16/07/11 31/07/11 15/08/11 30/08/11 14/09/11 29/09/11 14/10/11 29/10/11 13/11/11 28/11/11 13/12/11

Acquisition date

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♦ MODIS-MYMOD (±20%) ● SEVIRI-MyMET (±25%)

Etna , Italy - 12 eruptions July to October, 2011