Decision Support Modelling Under Uncertainty

Empowering organisations with clarity

Strategy Foresight works with senior officers and direction-setting teams to:

1. Perform a very advanced form of (knowledge) gap analysis

2. Tackle genuine uncertainty before modelling risk

3. Construct scenarios and develop strategy alternatives

4. Develop ‘what if’ models for stakeholder engagement

5. Relate means and ends in complex situations with limited resources

6. Analyse and develop organisational and system structure

Strategy Foresight is not a consulting firm

Facilitators who work with very complex issues aka ‘wicked problems’

Model unintended consequences of policy design, product design features etc.

Proprietary software – models developed in real time with the client

No army of researchers – the client’s workshop team are the specialists

Strategy Foresight facilitates entire process by:

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Prioritise

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Prioritise

Deploying highly experiencedfacilitators

Designing specialist workshop teams

Using processes developed in the military

Policy formulation

Product design

Business intelligence

Crisis planning

Futures research

We develop multi-attribute ‘what if’ models for decision support under uncertainty

The above example depicts 186,624 formal combinations – with facilitation and proprietary software, this can reduced by over 99%

Inputs Outputs

…..and provide clients with novel software to construct their own scenarios and strategy alternatives

1. Input and outputs interchangeable - manipulate both cause and effect

2. Ability to freeze and compare scenarios and strategy alternatives

3. Reducing decision alternatives does not require re-developing entire model

4. Easily updatable: visual, real time systematic group exploration for collective creativity and decision-making

5. Speed, efficiency and cost of facilitation and model development is a fraction of traditional consultancies

Case Study 1: New financial products for uncertain futures

The Issue

• How to develop new carinsurance products in theface of uncertain futures

e.g. climate shock, peak oil,financial crash, war

• What type of autoinsurance products for

different customer segments to remain

ahead of the pack

The Intervention

• Developed an inference model framework to allowclient to identify types of

products dependent upon different future scenarios

The Result

• Range of niche productsidentified for differentcustomer segments

including those iffinancial crash occurred

• Implemented strategies for financial crash

• Unearthed novelsolutions such as

car subscription and instant SMS insurance

The Client

• Major Insurance firm

• Director of Researchwith direct

reporting to CEO

The Issue

• How to develop new carinsurance products in theface of uncertain futures

e.g. climate shock, peak oil,financial crash, war

• What type of autoinsurance products for

different customer segments to remain

ahead of the pack

The Client

• Major Insurance firm

• Director of Researchwith direct

reporting to CEO

Case Study 2: Sustainability Issues for large scale producers

The Issue

• Develop scenarios andappropriate strategies for

Extended ProducerResponsibility (EPR) system

• To comply with EuropeanDirectives of each member

state implementing EPRpolicy

The Intervention

• Multi-dimensional matrixinference model developed

by convening disparate EPR stakeholders

The Result

• Generation of different future projections with

associated national strategic directions

e.g. developmentof regional high-tech

recycling industry sector

The Client

• Ministry of Environment and Environmental Protection Agency

• Minister of State forEnvironment

What’s the outcome?

• Accommodate multiple, alternative perspectives to anticipate unintended consequences vs. prescribing single solution

• Anticipates consequences of decisions made under conditions of high uncertainty, incomplete data and high decision stakes

• Manage genuine uncertainty by facilitating comparative judgements on a sound methodological basis

Strategy Foresight unlocks latent organisational capacity for you to move forward with purpose

“Organisations have no sparemental capacity. They’re sopreoccupied dealing with theirpresent problems that its nigh-onpossible to engage them in aconversation about the future”

SFPSFP

Ravetz and Funtowicz, 1993

Management Consulting Association (UK) Annual Report, 2009

Foresight MonitoringForesight Monitoring

Knowledge CentreKnowledge Centre

Sector IntelligenceSector Intelligence

Custom ResearchCustom Research

Foresight ManagementForesight Management Foresight CommunityForesight Community

Online communityOnline community

Symposia and workshopsSymposia and workshops

Thought LeadershipThought Leadership

Client assignmentsClient assignments

Client updatesClient updates

Client crisis managementClient crisis management

InsightInsight AnalysisAnalysis ForesightForesight

Research Advisory Facilitation NetworkingResearch Advisory Facilitation Networking

Primary and SecondaryResearch

Modelling sectorsTraining facilitators

Peer dialogueSharing next practice

Strategy Foresight is flexible to client needs

SFP has completed 125+ projects across the globe

Improving quality and quantity of investment grade deal flow (UK)*

Developing auto insurance products for global threats (Sweden)

Bioethics of drug redevelopment (UK)

New strategic directions for FMCG multinational (Sweden)*

Predicting and mitigating risks to corporate reputation (UK)*

Sustainable mining techniques (Brazil)

* current projects

Contacting Strategy Foresight LLP

Strategy Foresight Partnership LLPInnovation Warehouse1 East Poultry AvenueFarringdon London EC1M 6HJ

Tel: 07786 266878Fax: 0208 8612925Email: info@strategyforesight.org Web: www.strategyforesight.org