Debating Doomsday Scenarios Debating Doomsday Scenarios in Public: in Public:

Historical and Philosophical IssuesHistorical and Philosophical Issues

Robert P. CreaseRobert P. CreaseDepartment of PhilosophyDepartment of Philosophy

Stony Brook University Stony Brook University

I.I. Historical Issues:Historical Issues:Doomsday scenario discussions Doomsday scenario discussions

relating to heavy ion collidersrelating to heavy ion colliders

1974 (Bear Mountain, NY)1974 (Bear Mountain, NY)

1977 (S. Coleman on the “False Vacuum”)1977 (S. Coleman on the “False Vacuum”)

1978 (Bevalac, Berkeley, CA)1978 (Bevalac, Berkeley, CA)

1979 (Michigan State University Cyclotron, MI) 1979 (Michigan State University Cyclotron, MI)

1983 (RHIC, Brookhaven, NY)1983 (RHIC, Brookhaven, NY)

1999-2000 (RHIC, Brookhaven, NY) 1999-2000 (RHIC, Brookhaven, NY)

1999+ (LHC, Geneva, Switzerland)1999+ (LHC, Geneva, Switzerland)

Bear Mountain Conference (1974)

Bear Mountain Conference (1974) Bear Mountain Conference (1974)

These ideas may indicate “physical systems that have not been These ideas may indicate “physical systems that have not been

observed,” including another energy density valley.observed,” including another energy density valley.

--T. D. Lee and G. C. Wick, “Vacuum stability and vacuum excitation in T. D. Lee and G. C. Wick, “Vacuum stability and vacuum excitation in

a spin-0 field theory,” Physical Review D 9 (1974): 2291.a spin-0 field theory,” Physical Review D 9 (1974): 2291.

““Some of the more timorous participants were concerned that, Some of the more timorous participants were concerned that, once started, one of these abnormals might not stop until it once started, one of these abnormals might not stop until it contained all matter. It was pointed out, however, that the contained all matter. It was pointed out, however, that the Lee-Wick theory indicates that 10Lee-Wick theory indicates that 1088 or 10 or 1099 of them have already of them have already been produced on the moon, and that the moon is still there, been produced on the moon, and that the moon is still there, albeit with large holes.” albeit with large holes.”

--.Proceedings, Bear Mountain Conference, (1974). .Proceedings, Bear Mountain Conference, (1974).

S. Coleman on the “False Vacuum” (1977)

-S. Coleman, “Fate of the false vacuum: Semiclassical

theory,” Physical Review D 15 (1977), pp. 2929-2936

Vidal Principle

“Never commit irony in public.”

-Gore Vidal

Bevalac (Berkeley, 1978)

Participants of this discussion were not permitted to take notes.

Bevalac (Berkeley, 1979)Bevalac (Berkeley, 1979)Backdated notes of 1978 discussion:Backdated notes of 1978 discussion:

““[The committee] unanimously agreed that super-dense, super-stable [The committee] unanimously agreed that super-dense, super-stable neutral matter would not be formed in the Bevalac …If such an event neutral matter would not be formed in the Bevalac …If such an event could occur in a laboratory, it should also happen in the collision of could occur in a laboratory, it should also happen in the collision of cosmic rays on bodies in space, such as the moon. The moon and cosmic rays on bodies in space, such as the moon. The moon and other bodies in space are continually bombarded by particles at energies other bodies in space are continually bombarded by particles at energies like those used in the Bevalac, yet, through billions of years, noting of like those used in the Bevalac, yet, through billions of years, noting of this kind has happened … no need for special precautions to deal with this kind has happened … no need for special precautions to deal with the remote possibility of formation of super-stable, neutral matter.” the remote possibility of formation of super-stable, neutral matter.”

-“Position Paper (Revised 5-14-79) Creation of Super-Dense Neutral Matter in the -“Position Paper (Revised 5-14-79) Creation of Super-Dense Neutral Matter in the Bevalac.” No byline; committee members: A. Kerman, Kinsey Anderson, A. S. Goldhaber, Bevalac.” No byline; committee members: A. Kerman, Kinsey Anderson, A. S. Goldhaber, Miklos Gyulassy, T. D. Lee, Luis Alvarez, and B. G. Harvey.Miklos Gyulassy, T. D. Lee, Luis Alvarez, and B. G. Harvey.

Michigan State Cyclotron (1979)

Michigan State Cyclotron (1979)Michigan State Cyclotron (1979)

““Ergo, New Cyclotron” Ergo, New Cyclotron”

““What if … Dangers debated.” A group of What if … Dangers debated.” A group of “pre-eminent nuclear scientists” had met in “pre-eminent nuclear scientists” had met in 1978 to discuss whether an accelerator of 1978 to discuss whether an accelerator of the sort Michigan was building could create the sort Michigan was building could create “mini-black holes” that could “snowball.”“mini-black holes” that could “snowball.”

-Lansing State JournalLansing State Journal, June 3, 1979., June 3, 1979.

A. S. Goldhaber to H. Blosser, N. Glendenning, B. Harvey, and A. Sessler, June 27, 1979.

“[Harvey] seems to favor quiet, confidential

discussions among experts. I favor public discussion in the open technical literature. This can be messier and less efficient, but in the long run I think it is both more reliable and more likely to inspire and justify public confidence in science and technology.”

RHIC (1983)Talk by Piet Hut on possibility of black hole

production at first conference to discuss RHIC proposal, long before approval.

-R. Crease, “Recombinant Science: The Birth of the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC),” Hist. Stud. in Nat. Sci. 4:38 (2008): 535-568.

RHIC 1999

Media articles by Scientific American, Sunday Times of London, others. “White Paper” response by BNL

-R.Crease, “Case of the Deadly Strangelets,” Physics World, July 2000, 19-20

LHC

II. Philosophical Issues:Stating the Problem

Deferring to authority of experts seems to collide with democratic urge to accord equality to all opinions.

Deciding the role of expertise is "the pressing intellectual problem of the age."

Two easy solutions: Let public decide, or assign the matter to specialists. "The first choice risks technological paralysis, the second invites popular opposition.“-H. Collins & R. Evans, “The Third Wave of Science Studies: Studies of Expertise and Experience,” in E. Selinger and R. Crease, Eds, The Philosophy of Expertise (Columbia 2006)

Compounding Factors

Media Behaviors

The “melodramatic structure” of risk coverage-R. Crease, “Horror Stories That Grow Legs,” Physics World, February 2002, 15

Social Iagos: Spreading distrust and fear to promote agendas- R. Crease, “Dealing With Cassandras,” Physics World, June 2004, 16

Legal Defaults

Responsible Decision-Making

Obstacles to Responsible Decision-Making in Volatile Controversies involving Scientific-Technological Dimensions:

Power AsymmetriesVulnerabilityHistorical Exploitation or Oppression

We sense those affected have certain rights:

That the decision be made soundly.That technical detail is accurateThat it is explained accurately, without jargon or political cant.

-K. Whyte, “Integrating Ethics and Epistemology: A Normative Framework for the Inclusion of Indigenous Communities in Technical Decision-Making.” PhD Dissertation, Stony Brook University, 2009

Model for How Doomsday Discussions go Wrong:

Ibsen’s An Enemy of the People

Developing the‘Off-Stage Position’

Responsible discussion

Case histories of similar episodes

No secrecy

Role of Comedy (John Stewart’s Daily Show on RHIC, LHC)