DCR Trendline June 2013 – Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report

7/28/2019 DCR Trendline June 2013 Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report

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Winding down the last month of the second quarter of 2013, Trendline is here once agai

to bring you key insights into the temporary stang industry. Our up-to-date research an

in-depth analysis of informaon ensure that you have a pulse of the market. As always, ou

analysis of conngent workforce supply and demand gives you predicve forecasts of wag

trends and market status.

The DCR Naonal Temp Wage Index focuses on wage trends through the course of the year an

analyzes the usage of temp workers and related developments in the economy. This mont

we focus on the energy and manufacturing sector and also discuss the growth of jobs and o

temporary stang.

Our next arcle hones in on the opmism of the Midwest when it comes to hiring in 201

While employment gains in the area have been dismal, employers are posive about stan

growth throughout the remainder of the year.

We then shi our focus to the most recent data from the Bureau of Labor Stascs (BLS) an

look closely at job gains and losses in private sector employment. This is followed by a cung

edge piece examining the discrepancy between the signs that point to increased hiring ye

the low actual hire numbers. Look for our graph comparing job openings over the past year t

actual hires.

The Occupaonal Safety and Health Administraon (OSHA) recently made an announcemen

that has the stang industry talking. We examine this new iniave that extends protecon

for temp workers, its implicaons and the consideraons that prompted it. We cross-examin

the informaon presented by OSHA by looking at actual numbers from the BLS. Keep an eye ou

for our predicon of what this new program means for the temporary stang industry.

Our nal arcle this month spotlights North Carolinas expanding energy sector and its poten

job growth opportunies for temporary workers, the type of workers that will be needed an

what their wages will be.

Ammu WarrierAmmu Warrier, President

ide this Issue

te from the Editor

R National Temp Wage Index

dwest Businesses Optimisticout Hiring in 2013

Closer Look at Changes invate-Sector Employment

3-2011 to Q3-2012)

wer Layos, Low Unemploy-nt Rates and Open Positions, Still Low Hiring

HA Increases Protection formp Workers

blic or Private: Which Type ofb to Opt for?

rth Carolina: Energy Sector

eating Employment Boom formps

thodology

out DCR

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REPORT # 16 | June 2013

TRENDLINEContingent Worker Forecast and Supply Repor

Note from the Editor

Trend Line: Conngent Worker Forecast and Supply Report. DCR. All Rights Reserved


2/15

In the current quarter, the Temp Wage Index is likely to remain mostly at, increasing slightly towards the end of J

Businesses and government agencies alike are increasingly turning to stang rms for their talent needs due to incre

consumer demand, a greater need for exibility and the requirements of the new health care act. Automakers, pharmaceu

companies and are all ulizing temporary workers. These workers - full-me and part-me - handle a wide variety of tasks

manning factories and warehouses to working in sales posions.

According to an April 9th esmate by Stang Industry Analysts, a global advisor on conngent work, stang industry rev

will increase 6% annually over the next two years to $139.4 billion in 2014. Research Analyst Timothy Landhuis says tha

fastest-growing segment of stang this year will be healthcare, which will grow by 9%. The second-fastest growing segm

are informaon technology and markeng/creave temporary stang, both of which benet from the rapid increase in w

mobile and social media technologies.

Je Silber, an analyst at BMO Capital Markets, says that the dierence in the current economic expansion as compared with

recoveries is that companies are hesitant to hire even though their businesses are growing and more sta is required.

Recent discoveries of oil and gas reserves have put the U.S. on the path to becoming the worlds largest producer of oil

natural gas. According to economist Douglas Holtz-Eaken, former director of the Congressional Budget Oce, domesc en

producon is going to be a real driver of economic growth. The gains will be reected through more jobs in drilling an

other energy work sites.

The manufacturing industry will, however, not realize benets from the rise in energy-related sectors, as U.S. manufactu

has become so much less energy intensive overall in recent years says Alan Tonelson of the U.S. Business and Industry Cou

Energy Sector Plays a Major Role in Global Economic Growth


DCR National Temp Wage Inde

We esmate the U.S. temp stang market is about $100 billion, so 6 percent growth in 2013 translates to $6 billion in new orders, w

is a signicant increase for the industry.

~Timothy Landhuis, Stang Industry Analysts.

The only other opon is to either work full-me people harder or hire temps

~Je Sibler, BMO Capital Markets


3/15

As per Labor Department data, employers added 165,000 jobs in April, exceeding economists median forecasts of 148,00

in job gains. Professional and business services led the job addions with 73,000 jobs, trailed by leisure and hospitality a

43,000 jobs, retailers at 29,000, and healthcare at 26,000. The number of Americans out of work for at least six months fe

by 258,000 to 4.3 million. Average hourly earnings rose 4 cents to $23.87.

The number of temporary workers

increased by 31,000 in April, con-

nuing the upward trend. The

temp penetraon rate was 1.97

percent compared to 1.95 percent

in March. On a year-over-year

basis, temp jobs were up 184,200

in April.

A report from the American Stang Associaon showed that stang companies in the United States employed an averag

of 2.9 million temporary workers per day in 2012, up 4.1% from 2011.

Elance, a global online stang pla

reported that 60% more freelancers were h

in the rst quarter of 2013 as compared to

of 2012. The online demand for workers

been very strong so far in 2013 as seen

the 300,000 jobs that were posted on El

in Q1 of 2013, a signicant increase from

230,000 posted in Q4 of 2012. And given

most jobs on Elance are lled within 3 da

spike in jobs posted suggests a corresponding

in freelancer earnings over the coming mo

Much of this growth is comprised of dem

for highly technical, skilled workers.

The manufacturing sector is showing signs of slowing down. The U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index by nanci

data rm Markit is at 52.1 from 54.6 in March, its lowest reading since October. A separate report from the Instute fo

Supply Management shows the industry having only modest expansion. The instuon also showed its index of naon

factory acvity falling to 50.7 from 51.3 in March. Economists believe this data indicates slower manufacturing growth fo

the current quarter.

Slowdown of Manufacturing Growth

Job Growth in April 2013

Temporary Stang Rises

DCR National Temp Wage Inde


Year-over-Year Growth in Temporary Jobs

Growth in Jobs, 2010 to 2012


4/15

Midwest Businesses Optimistic about Hiring in 201


According to a survey conducted by a recruing agency based in Wisconsin, hiring in the Midwest is expected to improve in

next three months. The survey was administered to 320 manufacturers, banks, printers, distributers and informaon techno

rms based in the Midwestern United States.

According to the Quarterly Census on Wages and Employment report of the Bureau of Labor Stascs,, Wisconsin wa

the 43rd posion among all states in employment gain in the 3rd quarter of 2012. It also ranked 44th out of 50 state

private-sector job creaon. An explanaon for this ranking can be found by examining the main industries of the area, which

been hard-hit over the past few years. No American state produces more paper than Wisconsin, and the declining deman

ink-on-paper publishing has negavely aected paper mills and contract prinng plants with many of them closing down. In addi

the downturn in real estate has caused many factories producing windows, doors and home construcon supplies to sue

According to the survey, 455 employers have open posions due to a lack of skilled workers. 52% of employers feel tha

biggest issue facing companies in the rst quarter of 2013 was the economy, followed by a lack of qualied employees at 4

Asked about overall business climate, 48% expect condions to improve and only 3% expect condions to worsen. M

employers (69%) expected wages to stay the same, while 30% percent expected an increase. Of the percentage that expe

an increase in wages, 53% predict a 2.1 to 4% increase, while 44% expect an increase of less than 2%.

This doesnt just change overnight. Its a product of our history. We are not doomed to slow growth, its just that

going to take me.

~Brian Jacobsen, economist at Wells Fargo Bank

Change in Employment thought Q3-2012 Employer Senments on the Mid-West


5/15

A Closer Look at Changes in Private-Sector Employment (Q3-2011 to Q3-201


The change in the number of jobs over me is the net result of increases and decreases in employment at businesses.

Business Employment Dynamics (BED) stasc tracks these changes at private businesses. Gross job gains are the su

increases in employment from expansions at exisng private businesses and the addion of new jobs at new pri

businesses. In the third quarter of 2012 (the most recent data available from the Bureau of Labor Stascs) gross job gai

the private sector were 6.8 million. Gross job losses from closing and contracng businesses were 6.6 million. This yields aemployment gain of 199,000 jobs in the private sector in Q3 of 2012. Forecasng for 2013 shows job gains to remain rela

steady, with slight increases in total job losses.

Private Sector Employment

Private Sector Firms (1-49 employees)

*(F) indicates Forecas

*(F) indicates Forecas


6/15Trend Line: Conngent Worker Forecast and Supply Report. DCR. All Rights Reserved

Private rms with an employee base of 1-49 employees are forecasted to nd a net increase unl Q1 of 2013, whereas Q1 a

Q3 are expected to have a decit in job gains.

Private rms with 50 to 249 employees will remain strong in terms of employment throughout 2013. The projecon for the y

indicates a net increase in employment, where job gains exceed job losses.

Large private sector businesses will see a net increase in employment during the rst half of the year though it will slow do

to a decit in net gain of employment by the end of 2013.



Private Sector Firms (250 or more employees)

*(F) indicates Forecasn

*(F) indicates Forecasn


7/15



North Dakota had the highest gains in employment through the third quarter of 2012, but was the lowest in number of priv

business establishments. Among the top ten states in employment gains, California, Florida and Texas contributed almost 7of private businesses and 76.38% of employment.


Gains by State


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Fewer Layos, Low Unemployment Rates and Open Positions, Yet Still Low Hiring


The drop in the number of Americans seeking unemployment benets is an indicaon of fewer layos and hen

increased hiring. However, layos are only a part of the equaon; employer condence in the economy also plays

important role in making hiring decisions.

According to the Labor Department, applicaons for benets dropped by 16,000 with the four-week moving average declining 4,5

to 357,500.

Layo consultant, Challenger, Gray and Christmas Inc. announced that layos by U.S. employers dropped 23

month-over-month in April 2013, the lowest level since December 2012. Employers cut 183,162 jobs in the rst quarter of 2013

which April job cuts totaled 38,121 and March job cuts equaled 49,255.

However, while companies have been advers

for jobs, they have been slow to ll them due

diculty in nding appropriate talent. Job openin

for non-farm employment jumped 11% from Fe

ruary 2012 to February 2013, but the number

people hired declined.

The LayosOf the layos, the retail sector had the highest number of job cuts in April with 5,897 layos. The largest retail job cut came from t

closing of the Sears Holdings Corp. (SHLD) and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) Portrait Studios, operated by CPI Inc.

Government spending cuts also contributed to layos, as reected in the healthcare, industrial goods, transportaon, and aerospa

and defense industries (13,766 jobs cut in April).

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 165,000 in April, w

job increases in professional and business services, food servi

and drinking places, retail trade, and health care. Employme

growth averaged 169,000 per month over the past year.

The professional and business service sector added 73,000 jobs

April for an addion of 587,000 jobs over the past year. Emplo

ment also increased in temporary help services with 31,000 job

Retail trade saw a growth of 29,000 jobs in April. The industry ad

ed an average of 21,000 jobs per month in the past year. Genemerchandise stores and health and personal care stores made

much of this growth at 15,000 and 5,000 jobs added respecve

The healthcare sector added 19,000 jobs in April. Within the industry, employment in ambulatory health care services created t

most jobs (14,000).

There was lile change over the month in construcon, while manufacturing employment was unchanged.

Change in Employment

The economic slowdown that began late in the third quarter and is expected to turn into another summer slump h

yet to result in increased or widespread downsizing

~John A. Challenger, CEO of Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc.

Change in Employment, March April 2013


9/15

OSHA Increases Protection for Temp Workers

OSHA (Occupaonal Safety and Health Administraon) recently announced an iniave to protect temporary

workers from workplace hazard. Inspectors from OSHA will check for safety measures, appropraite training and working

condions at every rm that employs temporary workers. OSHA eld inspectors are now directed to assess whether

any employees at job sites are temporary and if any of the idened temporary employees are exposed to a violavecondion. Addionally, inspectors are directed to idenfy the workers stang company, the companys locaon and the

supervising structure under which the temporary workers are reporng.

Stang rms and companies are required to provide safe workplaces for temporary employees, along with necessary safety and

health training on workplace hazards. Although distribuon of safety-related dues and responsibilies should be clearly detailed in

contracts between stang rms and client companies, both enes may be held liable by OSHA and the courts.

The iniave to protect temporary workers under OSHA was prompted by cases of temporary worker deaths in the past

year at a South Carolina paper mill, a New York construcon site and at a Florida boling plant.

As of now only the Florida case has resulted in citaons, where Bacardi Boling Corp. was cited for two willful, nine

serious and one other-than-serious violaons.

The Center of Public Integrity says that this is not a new problem as it comes aer years of complaints from contract

workers that they do not feel protected at their work sites. Research conducted found that temporary workers are at ahigher risk of occupaonal injury due to a lack of safety training. Some ndings even imply that employers view contract

workers as expendable.

A recent study by the University of Illinois at Chicago School of Public Health of 4,000 workers in Illinois who had suered

some form of work-related amputaon found that 5 out of 10 employers with the highest number of workplace accidents

were temporary stang companies.

Another study in 2010 by the Washington State Department of Labor & Industries found that temporary workers in

Washington State had a higher injury rate than permanent workers.

Looking at the 2011 Census of Fatal Occupaonal Injuries Count by the Bureau of Labor Stascs, the nal count of fata

work injuries in the U.S. in 2011 was 4,693. The overall fatal work injury rate was 3.5 fatal injuries per 100,000 full-me

equivalent workers.


Recent Deaths Incited Initiative

Looking at the BLS Numbers

Inspectors will use a newly created code in their informaon system to denote when temporary workers are e

posed to safety and health violaons. Addionally, they will assess whether temporary workers received require

training in a language and vocabulary they could understand.

~OSHA press release, April 29th, 2013

OSHA feels strongly that temporary and contract workers many of whom work in low-wage jobs and face serio

hazards must have equal protecons, and employers must provide these workers with a safe workplace.

~OSHA



Public or Private: Which Type of Job to Opt for?

Fatal Injury by Occupaon

Fatal Injury by Industry

Fatal work injuries involving contractors accounted for 12% of all fatal work injuries in 2011. And the largest net increa

in fatal work injuries among occupaons involved drivers of tractor-trailer or other heavy tracks (670 cases).


11/15



North Carolina: Energy Sector Creating Employment Boom for Temps

Are you looking for a temporary assignment? Well, there are plenty available and more upcoming in North Carolina!

North Carolinas emerging energy landscape, solar farms and wind projects are expected to generate several hundr

temporary jobs on average over the next several years, according to interviews and studies of North Carolinas econompotenal from energy development.

The states energy policy has enabled North Carolina to be the h-ranking developer of solar power in the country.

study conducted by RTI Internaonal and La Capra Associates found that the policy has been a driver of clean ener

development, which in turn has been an important job creator in North Carolina. The study found that the state h

reaped $1.7 billion in total economic benets from the states renewable energy standard over the past six years.

Based on current condions, North Carolina would accommodate 368 wells and an average of 387 jobs per year for t

next seven years, as per the North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources. The agency says that t

jobs would peak at 858.

North Carolina Governor, Pat McCrory, is pushing to open up coastal waters o the North Carolina Coast for energy e

ploraon. According to McCrory, opening up the Atlanc shores could create up to 140,000 new jobs during the next

years.

A report by Mike Walden, an economist at North Carolina State University, says that gas drilling would generate $

million annually in income. Oshore energy exploraon would result in $181 million in annual income, according Waldens esmates.

All forms of energy development could result in longer-term indirect economic benets. These projects tend to genera

rental, lease and royalty income for property owners, and tax revenue for local governments. They would also genera

spending on equipment, supplies, food and lodging.

A proposed 300-megawa Desert Wind project in Eastern North Carolina would also follow a similar paern in term

of economic benets. According to Paul Copleman, a spokesman for the Iberdrola wind developer, this project wou

produce similar economic acvity as a 304-megawa wind farm recently completed in Ohio. The $600 million Oh

project had 1,200 workers at peak of the construcon with an average of 500-plus workers over an 18-monconstrucon period. A wind farm of that size would require a permanent team of 15 to 20 people for monitoring a

maintenance.

For the solar farm project, at least two-third of the workers - consisng of engineers, mud loggers, drillers, derri

handlers and tool pushers - would come in from outside of the state. There will also be ample work for handyme

electricians, truckers, asphalt pavers, deck hands, surveyors, yard workers and cement-pouring operaons. According

Steve Heron, South region exploraon manager of Cabot Oil & Gas, a drilling project of that size (368 wells) would requ

a permanent crew number about 36 people.

The me for further delay is over. Its me to get o the sidelines and allow the states to exert the leadership th

will create thousands of jobs, reduce Americas dependence on Middle Eastern oil and protect the environment

~Pat McCrory, Governor of North Carolina

Wind Farm Work

What Types of Workers are Needed?



North Carolina: Energy Sector Creating Employment Boom for Temps

At Strata Solar, one of the largest solar developers, local residents perform most eldwork. Workers are trained within

few days and paid $12 per hour on average.

The company currently has 450 assemblers and installers at various sites, with plans to double the amount of contracto

this summer. According to the company spokesman, Blair Schoof, Strata Solar has enough projects upcoming to empl

hundreds of workers through 2018.

At one of the projects under construcon, a 5-megawa solar form, there are about 50 temporary contractors curren

working in racking, modeling, panel installaon, operang equipment and electrical capacies. Their pay ranges from

to $18 per hour based upon responsibility and experience.

How Much is the Pay?


14/15

Methodolog


hp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-10/temporary-workers-near-u-s-record-makes-kelly-a-winner.html

hp://www.wtsp.com/news/naonal/arcle/314658/81/Economy-gains-165000-jobs-jobless-rate-75hp://www.stangindustry.com/Research-Publicaons/Daily-News/US-Forecast-Stang-industry-to-grow-6-in-2014-25294

hp://www.jsonline.com/business/qps-survey-says-hiring-will-pick-up-in-next-3-months-549oiaf-205269221.html

hp://www.stangindustry.com/site/Research-Publicaons/Daily-News/Survey-46-percent-of-Midwest-employers-to-hire-25543

hps://www.elance.com/q/online-employment-report

hp://www.stangindustry.com/site/Research-Publicaons/Daily-News/US-temp-jobs-total-climbs-in-April-25618

hp://beta.bls.gov/maps/cew/us

hp://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

hp://www.nymes.com/2013/04/26/business/economy/fewer-layos-but-employers-are-sll-hesitant-to-hire.html?partner=socialow&smid=tw-nymesbusine

r=1&

hp://www.foxbusiness.com/news/2013/05/02/us-layos-drop-23-in-april-from-march/

hp://www.mondaq.com/unitedstates/x/237020/Health+Safety/OSHA+Announces+Iniave+For+The+Protecon+Of+Temporary+Workers

hp://www.osha.gov/pls/oshaweb/owadisp.show_document?p_table=NEWS_RELEASES&p_id=23994

hp://openchannel.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/01/06/16353344-temp-employees-more-likely-to-succumb-to-workplace-hazards?lite

hp://www.charloeobserver.com/2013/05/03/4020598/ncs-new-energy-economy-temporary.html#storylink=cpy

hp://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/blog/2013/05/mccrory-pushes-nc-energy-exploraon.html

hp://www.news-record.com/home/1137355-63/temp-jobs-increase-in-triad#connue

hp://www.reuters.com/arcle/2013/05/01/us-usa-economy-idUSBRE93P04P20130501

hp://beta.bls.gov/maps/cew/US?period=2012-Q3&industry=10&pos_color=blue&neg_color=orange&Update=Update&chartData=3&ownerType=5&distribuon

nles

hp://www.bls.gov/news.release/cewbd.t01.htm

hp://www.ows.doleta.gov/press/2013/042513.asp

hp://www.bls.gov/news.release/cewbd.toc.htm

Sources:


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About DCR Workforc

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performance and decision-enabling business intelligence.

DCR Workforce serves global clientele including several Fortune 1000 companies. Customers realize great

eciencies; spend control, improved workforce quality and 100% compliance with our services.

For more informaon about DCR Workforce and its Forecasng Toolkit (Rate, Demand, Supply and Intelligenc

including Best Pracce Portal, visit dcrworkforce.com

For more informaon call +1-888-DCR-4VMS or visit www.dcrworkforce.com

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DCR Trendline June 2013 – Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report