102

RLFF

Regression Line Fractal Framework

111

Daily Squeeze

112

Market Beliefs

113

What’s the nature of the market?DescriptionDynamic?ProcessStrategyProcessValue

Simple RandomChaoticComplexComplicated

Closed, linearStatic

InstinctTrainingAnalysis

Speed, precision

Closed, linearStatic

RationalEngineering

AnalysisControl

(Closed), networkDynamicSystemsAdaptiveModelingLearning

Open, (network)DynamicMorphing

MetaphoricalBalance

Sense-making

ProbabilisticUncertainStatisticalAnalyticalCalibrationDiscipline

• Different situations need different responses, strategies, approaches

• Boundaries, indicators, volatility?• What about the market?

114

Performance Math

Market

Sector

Stock

50%

25%

25%

Statistics

115

116

Traffic lighting with statistics

Average

+1 St Dev

-1 StDev

AdaptiveTime period mattersCurrent stateChanging stateTime series

117

Extremes

1/6 1/6worst best

2/3normal

118

Getting on the bandwagon

InnovatorsEarly adoptersEarly mass adoptersLate mass adopters“Grumpy old men”

12

43

5 12

4

3

5

0%

100%

50%

GYR

119

Example of Green & Yellow Zone

120

Mechanical entry for the swing trade

Profit target for the swing trade

Standard frame

Initial stop for the swing tradeYellow zone

Red zone

When the swing trade pattern fired

Green zoneI want to be long in the swing trade position

I can try to front run a green zone trade if I can see to the one inside yesterdays range

I am out of the swing trade or I am going short, because it’s failing

121

Green Zone Trading: mechanical trading once Price moves above yesterday’s range

•Use scans & systems to find high probability/high payoff swing trade candidates•Any of the Tortoise swing trade systems, patterns, preferences•Frame the trades that meet 2:1 reward:risk ratios on a re-test of the 10day High•Enter the trades when price > yesterday’s high +.05•Initial risk: .05 below yesterday’s low (or 1x ATR if you prefer)•Once in the trade, use a trailing stop of the initial risk or adjust to .05 below yesterday’s low

Think of the Green Zone as the Core position with overnight/Swing trade levels of risk

Green zone & Yellow zone trading

Green zone & Yellow zone trading

122

Yellow Zone Trading: intraday opportunity trading on a mechanical trade, with tactical momentum

•Start with any Green Zone trade frame that gives 2:1•Look for opportunities when you can see 2:1 reward:risk, using the mechanical entry as your profit target•Tighten up your stop and prepare to take profits if it stalls near the mechanical entry•Consider adding another position at the mechanical entry, or simply accept the current trade as your mechanical Green Zone trade, but with an improved entry, and let it become your swing trade•If you have a successful Yellow Zone trade AND a Green Zone trade, take the Yellow Zone trade off before the close, so you only carry the swing trade risk overnight, then seek to get back in the following day with another Yellow Zone tradeThink of the Yellow Zone as the “Turbo” position with intraday trade levels of risk

Mastermind Insights

123

Supertrader Summit Insights

124

•Chatroom Mastermind effect•Feed the bulldog every day•Where do beliefs come from?•Connectivism & The Market Mosaic•Trader Quality Number•Your system is what you do•Double loop learning & learning styles, auditory learning•“That coal won’t shovel itself”•Tell the Universe•All your preparation is for…•Phase transitions and critical states•Zeno stop•Trade framing•Snapping turtle & hybrid frog•551w•“.25R improvement on every trade”•Zero state•Ready - Fire - Aim•You are ALWAYS trading

Live Trading Prep

Example of Green & Yellow Zone

126

Mechanical entry for the swing trade

Profit target for the swing trade

Standard frame

Initial stop for the swing tradeYellow zone

Red zone

When the swing trade pattern fired

Green zoneI want to be long in the swing trade position

I can try to front run a green zone trade if I can see to the one inside yesterdays range

I am out of the swing trade or I am going short, because it’s failing

Daily Trading Plan Notes (a way)

127

O 5DD O Long term

O WO O Short term

O Triple screen O Gaps

O 551w O RangeStat

O Channel O Pivots

O Overreaction O

O MaxPain O Regions

O MinPain O SPDRs

O French Mo O Mkt Cap

O 30‐60 QD O Style

O Sector rotation O Countries

O O

O MaxPain

O MinPain

O French Mo

O 30‐60 QD

O Open trades

O

Daily trading Plan Notes: 

Sector Notes

Market condition

Notes

Styles

Continuations

Patterns

Daily: Plan‐Prepare‐Execute

128

129

Max(ever)

Min(ever)

Min(future)

Max(future)

Max(x)

Min(x)

Avg(x)

Avg+1SD(x)

Avg-1SD(x)

SD

SD

30 days of dataCalculate daily RangesCalculate statistics:

•Max•Min•Avg•SD•Avg +1SD•Avg -1SD

•Calculate•Rstat / SD

•Select targets

•Stalk entry•Wait 30 min

HOD

RangeStat

LOD

SD

SD

•130

SPY

EFA

QQQQ

MDY

XLE

EWZILF

EPP

MVVMZZ

UWM

QLD

IWM

QID

TWM

EEMEEV

FXP FXI

EFU IEV

XLB

XLF

XLI

SKF

SMN

BAC

AXP

JPM

VOT

HPQ

CSCO

MSFTAAPL

CLF

GLD

AA

SLV AGQ SLWZSL

GDX GDXJ

CVX

CAT

HD

EWM

XME

NFLX

DBADBC

WMTTLT

DVN

Logic chain

•131

i start with SPY to assess mkt conditions from the open and during the day

i compare the vertical column above and below for intraday relative strength comparisons of indices and sectors to SPY

if a sector looks very good or very bad i then go east and west to find an even better target for easy trading

to include looking all the way to the right for stocks outperforming their peers in an outperforming sector, going in the same up direcition as mkt

if mkt failing i find worst sector ETF and trade the double inverse "long“

the stocks and ETFs on there are often the result of swing trade patterns which are favorable for the next couple days so i have extra protection when trading them intraday

Technical Analysis

132

133

Extremes

1/6 1/6worst best

2/3normal

134

Traffic lighting with statistics

Average

+1 St Dev

-1 StDev

AdaptiveTime period mattersCurrent stateChanging stateTime series

135

Getting on the bandwagon

InnovatorsEarly adoptersEarly mass adoptersLate mass adopters“Grumpy old men”

12

43

5 12

4

3

5

0%

100%

50%

136

10 NDX vs Williams %R

Williams %R10 NDX

0-20

-80-100

10080

200

uses current day data and previous 9readings are not intuitive

uses previous 10 days of datareadings are intuitiveextreme moves today are highlighted

Gap Stat

137

Range Stat

138

139

140

Indicator (Parameter) Color Nickname NoteBB(30, 1) Blue RiverBB(30, 2) Light blue FloodplainBB(30, 3) Thick red line Z3 limitSMA (30) ThicK red line BbmeanBB(10, 0.5) Orange Dragon front runs turns in the riverBB (4, 0.25) Purple Baby dragon front runs the dragon, useful for profit taking stopsRL(10) Blue Traders Price Fast RL of the Fast pairRL(30) Black Health of the trend Slow RL of the Fast pairRL(90) Green Intermediate trend Fast RL of the Slow pairRL(270) Purple Long term fair value Slow RL of the slow pairVWAP Orange "Price magnet" Price used to settle up  for brokers and clientsPSAR (0.2, 0.2) black dot accelerated trailing stop adjust parameters to reflect your stop "intuition"Volume at price left side Market profile identify key price levels for support andr resistance