4
Source: Daily FX Value Previous Change YTD Value Previous Change YTD 117.5933 117.5974 0.00% -0.51% 1.0988 1.0937 0.47% -4.05% 107.4991 108.2650 -0.71% 3.98% 1.0554 1.0569 -0.14% -6.24% 111.4523 111.0457 0.37% 6.17% 0.8781 0.8693 1.01% -1.83% 133.7503 135.0297 -0.95% 1.96% 1.2513 1.2582 -0.55% -2.63% Source: NBS 106.7800 106.9300 -0.14% -2.26% Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Value Next decision Value 1.50% 7.5.2020 0.00% Deposit facility 0.50% 0.25% Lending facility 2.50% 0.10% Repo operations (one week) 0.50% -0.75% Source: NBS Source: Bloomberg 1.5.2020 30.4.2020 Change (bps) 1.5.2020 30.4.2020 Change(bps) 0.53% 0.53% 0.00 0.000% -0.446% 0.446 0.92% 0.92% 0.00 0.000% -0.531% 0.531 1.18% 1.18% 0.00 0.000% -0.460% 0.460 1.38% 1.38% 0.00 0.000% -0.273% 0.273 Source: Reuters 0.000% -0.170% 0.170 Note: Values are with 1 day delay Source: Bloomberg, EBF Note: Values are with 1 day delay Value Previous Change (bps) Value Previous Change(bps) 0.303% 0.330% -0.026 -0.310% -0.307% -0.003 0.541% 0.556% -0.015 -0.267% -0.273% 0.006 0.713% 0.760% -0.046 -0.087% -0.100% 0.013 -0.720% -0.722% 0.002 1.079% 1.297% -0.218 -0.595% -0.583% -0.012 1.093% 1.284% -0.191 -0.552% -0.560% 0.008 1.220% 1.379% -0.159 Sources: ICE, Bloomberg Sources: IBA, Bloomberg Overall trading at the Belgrade Stock Exchange RSD 654.3 mln (EUR 5.5 mln). Bond trading amounted in RSD 641.7 mln (EUR 5.4 mln). ECB left its key policy rate unchanged at 0.00%. Euro streghtened against the dollar ($1.0988). U.S. stocks fell as investors considered warnings in corporate earnings reports about future profit hits from the coronavirus. S&P 500 down 2.8%, Dow Jones lost 2.6%, Nasdaq fell 3.2%. Most European markets were closed for the Labour Day holiday. Gold higher ($1707.02). Oil lower (WTI $18.36 and Brent $28.87). Financial Market Analysis Treausury and ALM department DAILY REPORT Flash Dinar marginally changed against euro (117.5933). Bank of the Group May 4, 2020 Key events Time Country/ Region Event Period Previous Forecast 16:00 US FX rates and money market FX rates on domestic market International markets Currency Currency Durable Goods Orders Mar F -14.40% -14.40% GBP/RSD GBP/USD USD/JPY National Bank of Serbia Interest rates Major interest rates EUR/RSD EUR/USD USD/RSD EUR/CHF CHF/RSD EUR/GBP United Kingdom (BOE) 7.5.2020 Switzerland (SNB) 18.6.2020 Serbia - Interbank interest rates Serbia Europe - Interbank interest rates - Europe Next decision Key policy rate Eurozone (ECB) 4.6.2020 US (FED) 10.6.2020 BELIBOR 6M EURIBOR3M Libor interest rates Interest rate Swap Libor 1M (USD) EURIBOR ISDA 3Y FIXING BEONIA EONIA BELIBOR1M EURIBOR1M BELIBOR3M EURIBOR6M STR Libor 3M (CHF) USD ISDA 5Y FIXING Libor 6M (CHF) USD ISDA 10Y FIXING Libor 3M (USD) EURIBOR ISDA 5Y FIXING Libor 6M (USD) EURIBOR ISDA 10Y FIXING Libor 1M (CHF) USD ISDA 3Y FIXING 1 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.1 1.12 1.14 EUR/USD 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 117 118 119 120 121 122 EUR mio EUR/RSD Turnover on FX market (right axis)

DAILY REPORT€¦ · 23.06.2016 NBS key rate + 0.25% Source: Public Debt Management Agency Source: Public Debt Management Agency 12.5 Source: Public Debt Management Agency Source:

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Page 1: DAILY REPORT€¦ · 23.06.2016 NBS key rate + 0.25% Source: Public Debt Management Agency Source: Public Debt Management Agency 12.5 Source: Public Debt Management Agency Source:

Source: Daily FX

Value Previous Change YTD Value Previous Change YTD

117.5933 117.5974 0.00% -0.51% 1.0988 1.0937 0.47% -4.05%

107.4991 108.2650 -0.71% 3.98% 1.0554 1.0569 -0.14% -6.24%

111.4523 111.0457 0.37% 6.17% 0.8781 0.8693 1.01% -1.83%

133.7503 135.0297 -0.95% 1.96% 1.2513 1.2582 -0.55% -2.63%Source: NBS 106.7800 106.9300 -0.14% -2.26%

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Value Next decision Value

1.50% 7.5.2020 0.00%

Deposit facility 0.50% 0.25%

Lending facility 2.50% 0.10%

Repo operations (one week) 0.50% -0.75%

Source: NBS Source: Bloomberg

1.5.2020 30.4.2020 Change (bps) 1.5.2020 30.4.2020 Change(bps)

0.53% 0.53% 0.00 0.000% -0.446% 0.446

0.92% 0.92% 0.00 0.000% -0.531% 0.531

1.18% 1.18% 0.00 0.000% -0.460% 0.460

1.38% 1.38% 0.00 0.000% -0.273% 0.273

Source: Reuters 0.000% -0.170% 0.170

Note: Values are with 1 day delay Source: Bloomberg, EBF

Note: Values are with 1 day delay

Value Previous Change (bps) Value Previous Change(bps)

0.303% 0.330% -0.026 -0.310% -0.307% -0.003

0.541% 0.556% -0.015 -0.267% -0.273% 0.006

0.713% 0.760% -0.046 -0.087% -0.100% 0.013

-0.720% -0.722% 0.002 1.079% 1.297% -0.218

-0.595% -0.583% -0.012 1.093% 1.284% -0.191

-0.552% -0.560% 0.008 1.220% 1.379% -0.159

Sources: ICE, Bloomberg Sources: IBA, Bloomberg

Overall trading at the Belgrade Stock Exchange RSD 654.3 mln (EUR 5.5 mln). Bond trading amounted in RSD 641.7 mln (EUR 5.4 mln).

ECB left its key policy rate unchanged at 0.00%.

Euro streghtened against the dollar ($1.0988).

U.S. stocks fell as investors considered warnings in corporate earnings reports about future profit hits from the coronavirus. S&P 500 down 2.8%, Dow Jones

lost 2.6%, Nasdaq fell 3.2%.

Most European markets were closed for the Labour Day holiday.

Gold higher ($1707.02). Oil lower (WTI $18.36 and Brent $28.87).

Financial Market Analysis

Treausury and ALM department

DAILY REPORT

Flash

Dinar marginally changed against euro (117.5933).

Bank of the Group

May 4, 2020

Key events

TimeCountry/

RegionEvent Period Previous Forecast

16:00 US

FX rates and money market

FX rates on domestic market International markets

Currency Currency

Durable Goods Orders Mar F -14.40% -14.40%

GBP/RSD GBP/USD

USD/JPY

National Bank of Serbia Interest rates Major interest rates

EUR/RSD EUR/USD

USD/RSD EUR/CHF

CHF/RSD EUR/GBP

United Kingdom (BOE) 7.5.2020

Switzerland (SNB) 18.6.2020

Serbia - Interbank interest rates Serbia Europe - Interbank interest rates - Europe

Next decision

Key policy rate Eurozone (ECB) 4.6.2020

US (FED) 10.6.2020

BELIBOR 6M EURIBOR3M

Libor interest rates Interest rate Swap

Libor 1M (USD) EURIBOR ISDA 3Y FIXING

BEONIA EONIA

BELIBOR1M

EURIBOR1MBELIBOR3M

EURIBOR6M

€STR

Libor 3M (CHF) USD ISDA 5Y FIXING

Libor 6M (CHF) USD ISDA 10Y FIXING

Libor 3M (USD) EURIBOR ISDA 5Y FIXING

Libor 6M (USD) EURIBOR ISDA 10Y FIXING

Libor 1M (CHF) USD ISDA 3Y FIXING

1

1.02

1.04

1.06

1.08

1.1

1.12

1.14

EUR/USD

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

117

118

119

120

121

122EUR mio EUR/RSD

Turnover on FX market (right axis)

Page 2: DAILY REPORT€¦ · 23.06.2016 NBS key rate + 0.25% Source: Public Debt Management Agency Source: Public Debt Management Agency 12.5 Source: Public Debt Management Agency Source:

Date Currency

5.5.2020 RSD

19.5.2020 RSD

27.5.2020 EUR

Source: Public Debt Management Agency

Moody's S&P Fitch

Ba3 BB+ BB+

Outlook Positive Positive Stable

Date 6.9.2019 13.12.2019 27.3.2020 Sources: Bloomberg, JPMorgan

Source: Bloomberg

Date Value Previous Date Value Previous

04.02.2016 2.75% 2.79% 21.05.2018 0.45% 0.47%

02.03.2017 2.64% 2.65% 28.04.2020 0.50% 0.49%

29.04.2020 1.79% 1.80% 23.10.2019 0.60% 1.15%

24.10.2017 4.05% 4.65% 18.03.2020 1.10% 1.48%

02.04.2020 2.15% 3.39% 11.06.2018 2.50%

21.04.2020 2.60% 2.60% 09.10.2019 1.89% 3.25%

05.11.2019 2.69% 3.40% 25.03.2020 1.89% 1.89%

07.08.2018 4.80% 4.85% 06.02.2019 3.60% 4.20%

10.03.2020 3.35% 3.40% 29.01.2020 3.00%

23.06.2016NBS key rate +

0.25%

NBS key rate +

0.25% Source: Public Debt Management Agency

Source: Public Debt Management Agency

Source: Public Debt Management Agency Source: Public debt Management Agency

Sources: Ministry of finance, Banca Intesa Sources: Ministry of finance, Banca Intesa

Vrednost Prethodna UST spred

Serbia 10y 2021 3.519% 3.626% 3.519%

Srbija 10g 2029 0.000% 3.214%Source: Bloomberg

Izvor: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Fixed income

Scheduled auctions

RSD Government securities EUR Government securities

Instrument Value

Serbia Credit rating

50,000,000,0002y government bond

5y government bond 10,000,000,000

5y government bond 50,000,000

2 years 5 years

3 years 7 years

5 years 10 years

Maturity

3 months 53 weeks

6 months 2 years

53 weeks 3 years

Maturity

7 years

10 years

24 month amortizing

Serbian Eurobonds yields (USD)

15 years

20 years12 years

12 years

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350bps JP Morgan EMBI Srbija

0.8

1.3

1.8

2.3

2.8

3.3

89

91

93

95

97

99

101

103

105

Serbian 10y Eurobond 2029 Price Yield (right axis)

1.52.53.54.55.56.57.58.59.5

10.511.512.513.514.5

Yields on RSD government securities primary auctions

3m 6m 53w 2y 3y NBS key rate 5y 7y 10y 12y

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.0

Yields on EUR government securities primary auctions

53w 2y 3y 5y 7y 10y 12y 15y 20y

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

0 180 360 540 720 900 1080 1260 1440 1620 1800

EUR yield curve

Interpolation T-bills

1

1

2

2

3

3

4

4

0 180 360 540 720 900 1080 1260 1440 1620 1800 1980 2160 2340 2520

RSD yield curve

Interpolation T-bills

2

Page 3: DAILY REPORT€¦ · 23.06.2016 NBS key rate + 0.25% Source: Public Debt Management Agency Source: Public Debt Management Agency 12.5 Source: Public Debt Management Agency Source:

Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange

Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange

Sourc: Bloomberg

NIIS 529 3,927,825 1.54% -0.38% 0.34 5.61 6.19

TGAS 13,543 501,091 0.26% 0.32% 0.71 6.75 11.05

ALFA 26,500 159,000 0.00% 0.00% 0.56 30.90 1.74

AMSO 900 94,500 20.64% 50.00% 0.37 3.50 11.37

IRTL 1,179 70,740 17.90% 0.00% 0.71 12.99 5.42

MTLC 1,775 26,625 0.00% -1.55% 0.67 8.57 8.17

AERO 848 1,696 -0.24% -8.72% 0.37 0.56 95.94

Sources: Belgrade Stock Exchange; Bloombeg

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

-0.23%

Source: Bloomberg

crobex sbi20

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

sofix bet-c

Izvor: Bloomberg Izvor: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

dj balkan

Source: Bloomberg

Belgrade Stock Exchange

Value Previous value Change YTD

Belex 15 655.41 655.30 0.02% -13.97%

Belex line 1,451.26 1,454.51 -0.22% -8.48%

Ratios P / B P / EBelex15 0,50 2,04

Turnover 654,381,659 RSD 3,479,244,755 RSD -81.19%Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange

5,564,593 € 29,585,842 € -81.19%

The most traded stocks on Belgrade Stock Exchange from the previous day

Company Ticker Price RSDTurnovor

RSD

Daily

change

Weekly

change

NIS AD NOVI SAD 86,258,951,600 Din.

MESSER TEHNOGAS AD 14,039,459,294 Din.

ALFA PLAM AD VRANJE 4,169,298,000 Din.

P/BV P/E ROE Market capitalization

AERODROM NIKOLA TESLA AD BEO 29,702,157,392 Din.

AMS OSIGURANJE AD BEOGRAD 348,095,000 Din.

IRITEL AD BEOGRAD 342,032,616 Din.

METALAC AD GORNJI MILANOVAC 3,621,000,000 Din.

Regional stock exchanges

Index Country/Region ValueValue from the previous

dayChange YTD

Crobex Hrvatska 1,544.30 1,544.30 -16.20%

SBITOP Slovenija 801.85 801.85 -0.58%

SOFIX Bugarska 447.45 447.45 -33.95%

BET Rumunija 7,978.64 7,978.64 2.90%

DJ Stoxx Balkan 50 Balkan 381.80 382.69 -18.91%

1,350

1,450

1,550

1,650

1,750

1,850

1,950

2,050

2,150

CROBEX

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

SOFIX

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

8,500

9,000

9,500

10,000

10,500

BET

300

400

500

600DJ Stoxx Balkan 50

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850 Belex 15

-0.24%

0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

0.26%

1.54%

AERO KMBN ENHL MTLC FITO JESV ALFA TGAS NIIS

Daily change of Belex 15 members

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800Belex line

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1,000

1,050

SBITOP

3

Page 4: DAILY REPORT€¦ · 23.06.2016 NBS key rate + 0.25% Source: Public Debt Management Agency Source: Public Debt Management Agency 12.5 Source: Public Debt Management Agency Source:

Source: Bloomberg

dow jones s&p

Izvor: Bloomberg Izvor: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

nasdaq dax

Izvor: Bloomberg Izvor: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

nikkei dj stoxx

Izvor: Bloomberg Izvor: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Izvor: Bloomberg Izvor: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Snežana Topalović 201-1400 Snežana Spasojević 201-3621Vladimir Gavović 201-1263 Dragomir Milin 201-3622Nikolina Guteša 201-1400 Biljana Radosavljević [email protected] [email protected]

Darko Karanović 201-3624

Boban Todorović 201-3627Dragan Ignja 201-3626

[email protected]

Index Country/Region Value Previous value Change YTD

World stock exchanges

S&P 500 US 2,830.71 2,912.43 -2.81% 5.88%

Dow Jones Industrial US 23,723.69 24,345.72 -2.55% -4.03%

DAX Germany 10,861.64 10,861.64 0.00% -15.92%

NASDAQ US 8,604.95 8,889.55 -3.20% 24.65%

Dow Jones Stoxx 600 EU 337.39 340.03 -0.78% -13.31%

FTSE UK 5,763.06 5,901.21 -2.34% -25.04%

ContactFinancial Market analysis Customer execution office (fixed income)

Dealing

Disclaimer

This overview is written to inform and does not represent a call for making business decisions and buying or selling mentioned financial instruments. Banca Intesa ad Beograd does not guarantee exactness of summoned data.

Information, opinions and commentaries in this overview are given with the best intention according to available data provided from relevant sources and as a result of professional attitudes and orientations of analytical team working in

Banca Intesa ad Beograd. Banca Intesa ad Beograd does not assume responsibility for possible loss and damage caused by business activities according to any element and contents of the overview. This document may only be

reproduced in whole or in part together with the name of Banca Intesa Beograd.

Nikkei 225 Japan 19,619.35 20,193.69 -2.84% -13.82%

18,000

19,000

20,000

21,000

22,000

23,000

24,000

25,000

26,000

27,000

28,000

29,000

30,000

31,000Dow Jones Industrial

2,200

2,300

2,400

2,500

2,600

2,700

2,800

2,900

3,000

3,100

3,200

3,300

3,400

3,500

S&P 500

5,800

6,300

6,800

7,300

7,800

8,300

8,800

9,300

9,800

10,300NASDAQ Composite

250

270

290

310

330

350

370

390

410

430

450DJ Stoxx 600

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000

20,000

21,000

22,000

23,000

24,000

25,000

Nikkei 225

\

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000DAX

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80Oil Brent (USD/bbl)

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800Gold

\

5

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95 Vix Index

4