24
F_lh^bq_kdh_ihkh[b_ml\_j‘^_ghgZaZk_^ZgbbdZn_^junbgZgkh\h- bg\_klbpbhggh]hZgZebaZbZm^blZ]bj_dhf_g^h\Zgh dba^Zgbxj_r_gb_fGZmqgh-f_lh^bq_kdh]hkh\_lZ wdhghfbq_kdh]hnZdmevl_lZ<hjhg_‘kdh]h]hkmgb\_jkbl_lZ J_p_ga_glu dZg^wdhggZmd^hp_glBLAZlhgkdbo, dZg^wdhggZmd^hp_glGNS_j[Zdh\Z ?g^h\bpdbc>: K[hjgbd aZ^Zgbc b f_lh^bq_kdbo j_dhf_g^Zpbc ih ZgZebam bg\_ klbpbhggh]h jbkdZ - <hjhg_‘ <hjhg_‘kdbc ]hkm^Zjkl\_gguc mgb \_jkbl_l-k DHGLJHEVGU?<HIJHKU ;;D < mq_[ghf ihkh[bb ij_^klZ\e_g dhgljhevguc i_j_q_gv \hijhkh\ \dexqZx sbo \ k_[y hkgh\gu_ l_hj_lbq_kdb_ b ijbdeZ^gu_ Zki_dlu ZgZebaZ bg\_klbpbhg gh]h jbkdZ Ij_^eh‘_ggu_ \ g_fmijZ‘g_gby hljZ‘Zxldhfie_dkj_Zevguoohayc kl\_gguo kblmZpbc dZq_kl\_ggh_ j_r_gb_ dhlhjuo lj_[m_l bkihevah\Zgby ki_pb Zevguo dhgdj_lgh-ZgZeblbq_kdbo f_lh^h\ bkke_^h\Zgby ijb_fh\ [bag_k- klZlb klbdbijbf_g_gbywdhghfbdh-fZl_fZlbq_kdbo f_lh^h\ZgZebaZ JZajZ[hlZggu_ f_lh^bq_kdb_ j_dhf_g^Zpbb b lZ[ebqguc fZl_jbZe iha\heyxl bgl_gkbnbpbjh\Zlv ijhp_kk h[mq_gby ijbh[j_klb g_h[oh^bfu_ gZ\udb ZgZeblb q_kdh]h h[hkgh\Zgby mijZ\e_gq_kdbo j_r_gbc \ mkeh\byo jbkdZ b g_hij_^_e_ggh klb ihemq_gby h‘b^Z_fuo j_amevlZlh\ g_]Zlb\gh]h \ha^_ckl\by fZdjhwdhghfbq_ kdbo ki_pbnbq_kdbo b nbgZgkh\uo nZdlhjh\ \g_rg_c b \gmlj_gg_c kj_^u [bag_ kZ gZ oh^ j_ZebaZpbb ^he]h\j_f_gghc ijh]jZffu bg\_klbpbhggh]h jZa\blby dhf f_jq_kdhchj]ZgbaZpbb >ey klm^_glh\ h[mqZxsboky ih ki_pbZevghklb' ;mo]Zel_jkdbc mq_l b Zm^blb fZ]bkljh\ h[mqZxsboky ih gZijZ\e_gbx ' WdhghfbdZki_pbZ ebaZpbb';mo]Zel_jkdbc mq_l b Zm^bl^ey ijh\_^_gby ijZdlbq_kdbo aZgylbc ih dmjkZf e_dpbc'NbgZgkh\h-bg\_klbpbhgguc ZgZeba“' NbgZgkh\uc f_g_^‘f_gl':gZeba b hp_gdZ wnn_dlb\ghklb bg\_klbpbhgguo ijh_dlh\Z lZd‘_ kemrZl_e_c mq_[gh-f_lh^bq_kdbo p_gljh\ Zll_klZpbb ijhn_kkbhgZevguo [mo]Zel_jh\ b Zm^b lhjh\ ;;D ?g^h\bpdbc>: Hnhjfe_gb_ ;bag_k-rdheZ<=M

;;Dˇ˘ ˝ ˇwindow.edu.ru/resource/422/40422/files/unk079.pdf16. Hp_gdZ aZ\bkbfhklb jbkdZ b j_glZ[_evghklb k bkihevah\Zgb_f fh^_e_c nb gZgkh\h]h Zj[bljZ‘Z :JL - fh^_ev 17. Hp_gdZ

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    0

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

F_lh^bq_kdh_�ihkh[b_�ml\_j`^_gh�gZ�aZk_^Zgbb�dZn_^ju�nbgZgkh\h-bg\_klbpbhggh]h�ZgZebaZ�b�Zm^blZ������������]��b�j_dhf_g^h\Zgh�

d�ba^Zgbx�j_r_gb_f�GZmqgh-f_lh^bq_kdh]h�kh\_lZ wdhghfbq_kdh]h�nZdmevl_lZ�<hjhg_`kdh]h�]hkmgb\_jkbl_lZ

J�_�p�_�g�a�_�g�l�u�

dZg^��wdhg��gZmd��^hp_gl��B�L��AZlhgkdbo, dZg^��wdhg��gZmd��^hp_gl�G�N��S_j[Zdh\Z

?g^h\bpdbc�>�:�

�������K[hjgbd�aZ^Zgbc�b�f_lh^bq_kdbo�j_dhf_g^Zpbc�ih�ZgZebam�bg\_�

klbpbhggh]h� jbkdZ�� -� <hjhg_`�� <hjhg_`kdbc� ]hkm^Zjkl\_gguc� mgb�\_jkbl_l��������-����k�

DHGLJHEVGU?��<HIJHKU

;;D������������

<� mq_[ghf� ihkh[bb� ij_^klZ\e_g� dhgljhevguc� i_j_q_gv� \hijhkh\�� \dexqZx�

sbo�\�k_[y�hkgh\gu_�l_hj_lbq_kdb_�b�ijbdeZ^gu_�Zki_dlu�ZgZebaZ�bg\_klbpbhg�

gh]h�jbkdZ��Ij_^eh`_ggu_�\�g_f�mijZ`g_gby�hljZ`Zxl�dhfie_dk�j_Zevguo�ohayc�

kl\_gguo�kblmZpbc��dZq_kl\_ggh_�j_r_gb_�dhlhjuo�lj_[m_l�bkihevah\Zgby�ki_pb�

Zevguo� dhgdj_lgh-ZgZeblbq_kdbo�f_lh^h\� bkke_^h\Zgby�� ijb_fh\� [bag_k-� klZlb�klbdb��ijbf_g_gby�wdhghfbdh-fZl_fZlbq_kdbo�f_lh^h\�ZgZebaZ�

JZajZ[hlZggu_�f_lh^bq_kdb_�j_dhf_g^Zpbb�b�lZ[ebqguc�fZl_jbZe�iha\heyxl�

bgl_gkbnbpbjh\Zlv�ijhp_kk�h[mq_gby��ijbh[j_klb�g_h[oh^bfu_�gZ\udb�ZgZeblb�

q_kdh]h�h[hkgh\Zgby�mijZ\e_gq_kdbo�j_r_gbc�\�mkeh\byo�jbkdZ�b�g_hij_^_e_ggh�

klb�ihemq_gby�h`b^Z_fuo�j_amevlZlh\��g_]Zlb\gh]h�\ha^_ckl\by�fZdjhwdhghfbq_�

kdbo��ki_pbnbq_kdbo�b�nbgZgkh\uo�nZdlhjh\�\g_rg_c�b�\gmlj_gg_c�kj_^u�[bag_�

kZ�gZ�oh^�j_ZebaZpbb�^he]h\j_f_gghc�ijh]jZffu�bg\_klbpbhggh]h�jZa\blby�dhf�

f_jq_kdhc�hj]ZgbaZpbb� >ey�klm^_glh\��h[mqZxsboky�ih�ki_pbZevghklb��������©;mo]Zel_jkdbc�mq_l�b�

Zm^blª��b�fZ]bkljh\��h[mqZxsboky�ih�gZijZ\e_gbx� �������©WdhghfbdZª�ki_pbZ�

ebaZpbb� ©;mo]Zel_jkdbc�mq_l�b�Zm^blª��^ey�ijh\_^_gby�ijZdlbq_kdbo� aZgylbc�ih�

dmjkZf�e_dpbc�©NbgZgkh\h-bg\_klbpbhgguc�ZgZebaª��©NbgZgkh\uc�f_g_^`f_glª��

©:gZeba�b�hp_gdZ�wnn_dlb\ghklb�bg\_klbpbhgguo�ijh_dlh\ª��Z�lZd`_�kemrZl_e_c�

mq_[gh-f_lh^bq_kdbo�p_gljh\�Zll_klZpbb�ijhn_kkbhgZevguo�[mo]Zel_jh\�b�Zm^b�lhjh\�

;;D������������

��?g^h\bpdbc�>�:������� ��Hnhjfe_gb_��;bag_k-rdheZ�<=M������

2

1.�Kmsghklv� b� wdhghfbq_kdZy� ijbjh^Z� bg\_klbpbhggh]h� jbkdZ�� DeZkkbnbdZpby�

jZaebqguo�lbih\�jbkdZ�\�^he]hkjhqghf�bg\_klbjh\Zgbb� 2.�OZjZdl_jbklbdZ�b�hkgh\gu_�ihgylby�[bag_k�jbkdZ��nbgZgkh\h]h�jbkdZ��h[s_]h�

jbkdZ�dhfiZgbb��ijh_dlgh]h�jbkdZ��^b\_jkbnbpbjh\Zggh]h��mgbdZevgh]h��jbkdZ��kbkl_fZ�

lbq_kdh]h��jughqgh]h��jbkdZ� 3.�Hp_gdZ� \ebygby� gZ� wnn_dlb\ghklv� ijhba\h^kl\_ggh-nbgZgkh\hc� ^_yl_evghklb�

ohayckl\mxs_]h� km[t_dlZ�fZdjhwdhghfbq_kdbo�� ki_pbnbq_kdbo�b�nbgZgkh\uo�nZdlhjh\�

jbkdZ� 4.�Hkgh\gu_� ih^oh^u� b� kihkh[u� mijZ\e_gq_kdh]h� \ha^_ckl\by� gZ� mjh\_gv� bg\_�

klbpbhggh]h�jbkdZ� 5.�Kh^_j`Zgb_�b�agZq_gb_�ZgZebaZ�jbkdZ�\�h[hkgh\Zgbb�mijZ\e_gq_kdbo�j_r_gbc�b�

_]h�f_klh�\�kbkl_f_�dhfie_dkgh]h�ZgZebaZ�^he]hkjhqguo�bg\_klbpbc� 6.�P_eb��aZ^Zqb��h[t_dlu�b�km[t_dlu�ZgZebaZ�jbkdZ�b�g_hij_^_e_gghklb�ihemq_gby�

aZieZgbjh\Zgguo� j_amevlZlh\� ^he]hkjhqgh]h� bg\_klbjh\Zgby�� BgnhjfZpbhggZy� [ZaZ� b�

hj]ZgbaZpbhggh_�h[_ki_q_gb_�ZgZebaZ� 7.�<hafh`ghklb�bkihevah\Zgby�\�ZgZeba_�bg\_klbpbhggh]h�jbkdZ�gh\uo�bgnhjfZ�

pbhgguo��dhfivxl_jguo��l_ogheh]bc��BfblZpbhggh_�fh^_ebjh\Zgb_� 8.�F_lh^u��ijb_fu�b�kbkl_fZ�ihdZaZl_e_c�ZgZebaZ�jZaebqguo�lbih\�jbkdZ�\�aZ\b�

kbfhklb�hl�mkeh\bc�nbgZgkbjh\Zgby�b�dhf[bgZpbb�ijh_dlh\�\�ihjln_e_�bg\_klbpbc� 9.�Bkihevah\Zgb_�dhgp_ipbb�\j_f_gghc�p_gghklb�^_g_`guo�\eh`_gbc�b�\_jhylgh�

klguo�ih^oh^h\�\�ZgZeba_�bg\_klbpbhggh]h�jbkdZ� 10.�Hp_gdZ�qm\kl\bl_evghklb�-�wnn_dlb\gZy�ijhp_^mjZ�ZgZebaZ�ijh_dlgh]h�jbkdZ�b�

ij_^\Zjbl_evgh]h�bg\_klbpbhggh]h�dhgljhey� 11.�Bkihevah\Zgb_�\�ZgZeba_�ijh_dlgh]h�jbkdZ�ihdZaZl_e_c�\ZjbZpbb��klZg^Zjlgh�

]h�hldehg_gby��^bki_jkbb��b�dhwnnbpb_glZ�\ZjbZpbb��Wdhghfbq_kdbc�kfuke�wlbo�ihdZaZ�

l_e_c� 12.�:gZeba� aZ\bkbfhklb�nbgZgkh\h]h� jbkdZ�� j_glZ[_evghklb� bg\_klbpbc� b� kjhdZ�

hdmiZ_fhklb�\�hp_gd_�[Zah\uo�hjb_glbjh\�bg\_klbpbhgghc�iheblbdb�dhff_jq_kdhc�hj�

]ZgbaZpbb� 13.�:gZeba�h`b^Z_fh]h�mjh\gy�j_glZ[_evghklb�bg\_klbpbc�\�mkeh\byo�khhl\_lkl�

\mxs_c�kl_i_gb�kbkl_fZlbq_kdh]h�jbkdZ�k�bkihevah\Zgb_f�fh^_eb�hp_gdb�dZiblZevguo�

Zdlb\h\��K:JF�� 14.�GZijZ\e_gby�bkihevah\Zgby�K:JF-�fh^_eb�\�^he]hkjhqghf�bg\_klbjh\Zgbb� 15.�Kihkh[u� jZkq_lZ� qm\kl\bl_evghklb� ihdZaZl_e_c� wnn_dlb\ghklb� ijhba\h^kl�

\_ggh-nbgZgkh\hc�^_yl_evghklb�dhfiZgbb�d�\ha^_ckl\bx�fZdjhwdhghfbq_kdbo�nZdlhjh\�jbkdZ��[_lZ�dhwnnbpb_gl��

16. Hp_gdZ� aZ\bkbfhklb� jbkdZ� b� j_glZ[_evghklb� k� bkihevah\Zgb_f� fh^_e_c� nb�gZgkh\h]h�Zj[bljZ`Z��:JL�- fh^_ev��

17.�Hp_gdZ�h`b^Z_fhc�j_glZ[_evghklb�bkoh^y�ba�kmffu�jbkdh\uo�ij_fbc�aZ�kbk�l_fZlbq_kdbc�b�nbgZgkh\uc�jbkd�

18.�Mkeh\by�ijbf_g_gby�[Zah\uo�iheh`_gbc�l_hjbb�bg\_klbpbhggh]h�ihjln_ey�\�^he]hkjhqghf�bg\_klbjh\Zgbb��

19.�Djb\u_�[_ajZaebqby�bg\_klhjZ�^ey�jbkdZ�b�j_glZ[_evghklb��Nmgdpbb�ihe_agh�

klb�bg\_klhjh\� 20.�Wdhghfbq_kdbc� kfuke� ihdZaZl_e_c� dh\ZjbZpbb� b� dhwnnbpb_glZ� dhjj_eypbb�

ijbf_gbl_evgh�d�ijhp_kkm�^he]hkjhqgh]h�bg\_klbjh\Zgby� 21.�<hafh`ghklb� hilbfbaZpbb� ihjln_ey� bg\_klbpbc�� >hklb`bfuc� b� wnn_dlb\�

guc�kibkhd�ihjln_e_c�bg\_klbpbc� AZ^Zgb_��

GZ�hkgh\Zgbb�^Zgguo�lZ[e���

3

1. Hij_^_eblv� ihdZaZl_ev� qbklhc� l_dms_c� klhbfhklb� ijh_dlguo� ^_g_`guo����������

ihlhdh\�

2. JZkkqblZcl_�NPV��_keb� aZ�kq_l�ijbh[j_l_gby�[he__�ijh]j_kkb\gh]h�h[hjm^h\Z�

gby� �ih�kjZ\g_gbx�k�i_j\hgZqZevguf�\ZjbZglhf�bg\_klbjh\Zgby�bg\_klbpbhggu_�aZljZ�

lu�\�qZklb�jZkoh^h\�ih�ijbh[j_l_gbx�hkgh\guo�nhg^h\�m\_ebqZlky�gZ�����luk��j���m^Z_lky�

kgbablv�i_j_f_ggu_�ba^_j`db�^h������luk��j��aZ�_^bgbpm�ijh^mdpbb�

3. =jZnbq_kdb�b�jZkq_lguf�iml_f�gZc^bl_�lhqdm�[_am[ulhqghklb�ih�^\mf�Zevl_j�

gZlb\guf�\ZjbZglZf�bg\_klbjh\Zgby��gZ�hkgh\_�NPV -�djbl_jby��

4. <�ZgZeblbq_kdhf�aZdexq_gbb�hoZjZdl_jbamcl_�mjh\_gv�ijh_dlgh]h�jbkdZ�dZ`^h�

]h�\ZjbZglZ�dZiblZeh\eh`_gbc�

LZ[ebpZ��

Bkoh^gu_�^Zggu_�^ey�hp_gdb�wnn_dlb\ghklb�^he]hkjhqghc�bg\_klbpbb

IhdZaZl_eb AgZq_gb_ ihdZaZl_ey

H[t_f ijh^Z` aZ ]h^� rl� 4 000 P_gZ _^bgbpu ijh^mdpbb� luk� j� 0,55 I_j_f_ggu_ ba^_j`db gZ ijhba\h^kl\h _^bgbpu ijh^mdpbb� luk� j� 0,4 =h^h\u_ ihklhyggu_ aZljZlu [_a k mq_lZ ZfhjlbaZpbb hkgh\guo nhg^h\� luk� j� 120,8 =h^h\Zy klZ\dZ ZfhjlbaZpbb hkgh\guo nhg^h\ k bkihevah\Zgb_f ijyfhebg_cgh�

]h f_lh^Z __ gZqbke_gby� � 7

GZqZevgu_ bg\_klbpbhggu_ aZljZlu� luk� j� \ lhf qbke_ \ hkgh\gu_ nhg^u

1560,0 1120,0

Kjhd j_ZebaZpbb ijh_dlZ� e_l� 10 Ijh_dlgZy ^bkdhglgZy klZ\dZ� � 10 KlZ\dZ gZeh]Z gZ ijb[uev� � 35 Ihke_gZeh]h\uc ^_g_`guc ihlhd hl j_ZebaZpbb bfms_kl\Z b ih]Zr_gby h[yaZ�

l_evkl\ \ dhgp_ kjhdZ j_ZebaZpbb ijh_dlZ� luk� j�

+ 205,0

F_lh^bq_kdb_�mdZaZgby�d�j_r_gbx�aZ^Zgby��

>ey�hij_^_e_gby�\_ebqbgu�^_g_`gh]h�ihlhdZ�bkihevamcl_�ke_^mxsmx�ihke_^h\Z�

l_evghklv�jZkq_lZ�bkdhfh]h�ihdZaZl_ey��\_ebqbgZ�qbklhc�ijb[ueb���h[t_f�ZfhjlbaZpbb���

ihke_gZeh]h\uc�^_g_`guc�ihlhd�hl�j_ZebaZpbb�bfms_kl\Z�b�ih]Zr_gby�h[yaZl_evkl\�\�

dhgp_�kjhdZ�j_ZebaZpbb�ijh_dlZ�−�_^bgh\j_f_ggu_�bg\_klbpbhggu_�aZljZlu�

AZ^Zgb_��

GZ�hkgh\Zgbb�^Zgguo�lZ[e���

1. K�bkihevah\Zgb_f�h`b^Z_fuo��i_kkbfbklbq_kdbo�b�hilbfbklbq_kdbo�agZq_gbc�

ihdZaZl_e_c�jZkkqblZlv�qbklmx�l_dmsmx�klhbfhklv�ijh_dlZ�

2. Hij_^_eblv�qm\kl\bl_evghklv�ijh_dlghc�NPV�d�baf_g_gbyf�\�hp_gd_�[Zah\uo�

ihdZaZl_e_c�ih�bo�gZbemqr_fm�b�gZbom^r_fm�agZq_gbyf�

4

3. Ijh\_klb�ZgZeba�qm\kl\bl_evghklb�ijh_dlZ�ijb�mkeh\bb��qlh�kijhk�gZ�ijhba\h�

^bfmx�ijh^mdpbx�oZjZdl_jbam_lky�_^bgbqghc� weZklbqghklvx� �g_dhlhjh_�hlghkbl_evgh_�

m\_ebq_gb_� �kgb`_gb_�� p_gu� \uau\Z_l� lZdh_� `_� hlghkbl_evgh_� kgb`_gb_� �m\_ebq_gb_��

kijhkZ��dhwnnbpb_gl�weZklbqghklb�jZ\_g����

4. KhklZ\blv�ZgZeblbq_kdh_�aZdexq_gb_�

LZ[ebpZ��

:gZeba�qm\kl\bl_evghklb�ijh_dlghc�NPV

IhdZaZl_eb AgZq_gby ihdZaZl_e_c Ijh_dlgZy NPV ih dZ`^hfm kp_gZjbx

I_kkbfb�

klbq_kdh_ H`b^Z_-fh_

Hilbfbk-lbq_kdh_

I_kkbfb�

klbq_kdh_ Hilbfbk-lbq_kdh_

H[t_f ijh^Z` aZ ]h^� rl� 244 305 366 P_gZ aZ _^bgbpm ijh^mdpbb� luk� j�

18 000

22 500

27 000

I_j_f_ggu_ ba^_j`db gZ ijhba�

\h^kl\h _^bgbpu ijh^mdpbb� luk� j�

16 000

15 000

14 000

Ihklhyggu_ aZljZlu aZ ]h^� luk� j� \ lhf qbke_ ZfhjlbaZpby HN

600 000 200 000

480 000 200 000

400 000 200 000

?^bgh\j_f_ggu_ bg\_klbpbhggu_

aZljZlu� luk� j�

3 000 000

2 500 000

2 500 000

KlZ\dZ gZeh]Z gZ ijb[uev� dhwn� 0,35 0,35 0,35 >bkdhglgZy klZ\dZ� dhwn� 0,14 0,1 0,1 Kjhd j_ZebaZpbb� e_l� 3 4 5 QbklZy l_dmsZy klhbfhklv� luk� j� O O

F_lh^bq_kdb_�mdZaZgby�d�j_r_gbx�aZ^Zgby��

<�oh^_�ZgZebaZ�bg\_klbpbhgghc�qm\kl\bl_evghklb�g_h[oh^bfh�jZkkqblu\Zlv�NPV

ijh_dlZ�k�ihi_j_f_gguf�bkihevah\Zgb_f�dZ`^h]h�ihdZaZl_ey�\�_]h�i_kkbfbklbq_kdhc�b�

hilbfbklbq_kdhc�hp_gd_��\�lh�\j_fy�dZd�hklZevgu_�ihdZaZl_eb�ijbgbfZxlky�\�jZkq_l�ih�

bo�h`b^Z_fuf�agZq_gbyf�

AZ^Zgb_��

Hj]ZgbaZpby� ieZgbjm_l� ijbh[j_klb� l_ogheh]bq_kdh_� h[hjm^h\Zgb_�� g_h[oh^bfh_�

^ey�ijhba\h^kl\Z�gh\hc�ijh^mdpbb��GZ�hkgh\Zgbb�fZl_jbZeh\��ij_^klZ\e_gguo�ijhba\h^�

kl\_ggufb��l_ogbq_kdbfb�b�wdhghfbq_kdbfb�kem`[Zfb�dhfiZgbb��\�lZ[e����kh[jZgu�^Zg�

gu_��oZjZdl_jbamxsb_�mjh\_gv�ijhba\h^kl\Z�b�j_ZebaZpbb�ijh^mdpbb�ih�^\mf�Zevl_jgZ�

lb\guf�\ZjbZglZf�bg\_klbjh\Zgby��K�bkihevah\Zgb_f�^Zgguo�lZ[e���

���GZc^bl_�lhqdm�[_am[ulhqghklb�^ey�dZ`^h]h�Zevl_jgZlb\gh]h�\ZjbZglZ�bg\_klb�

jh\Zgby�b�h[t_f�ijh^Z`��ijb�dhlhjhf�jZkkfZljb\Z_fu_�\ZjbZglu�bg\_klbjh\Zgby�[m^ml

5

h^bgZdh\h�ijb[uevgufb��m[ulhqgufb��

���������Ihkljhcl_�]jZnbd�[_am[ulhqghklb�h^gh\j_f_ggh�^ey�^\mo�\ZjbZglh\�ijbh[j_l_�

gby�h[hjm^h\Zgby�

����������Hij_^_ebl_�j_glZ[_evghklv�bg\_klbpbb�dZd�hlghr_gb_�ijb[ueb�d�bg\_klbpbhg�

guf�aZljZlZf��bkoh^y�ba�ke_^mxsbo�\hafh`guo�iZjZf_ljh\�baf_g_gby�kijhkZ�gZ�\uimk�

dZ_fmx�ijh^mdpbx��ih�hilbfbklbq_kdbf�hp_gdZf�h[t_f�ijh^Z`�khklZ\bl�������hl�lhqdb�

[_am[ulhqghklb� �\_jhylghklv� -� ������� h`b^Z_fuc� h[t_f� ijh^Z`� ieZgbjm_lky� gZ� ��� ��

[hevr_� lhqdb�[_am[ulhqghklb� �\_jhylghklv� -� ������ih�i_kkbfbklbq_kdbf�hp_gdZf�h[t_f�

ijh^Z`�[m^_l�gZ������gb`_�lhqdb�[_am[ulhqghklb��\_jhylghklv�- 0,25).

���JZkkqblZcl_�klZg^Zjlgh_�hldehg_gb_�b�dhwnnbpb_gl�\ZjbZpbb�ihdZaZl_ey�j_glZ�

[_evghklb�bg\_klbpbc�ih�dZ`^hfm�\ZjbZglm�bg\_klbjh\Zgby�

��������������<� ZgZeblbq_kdhf� aZdexq_gbb� h[hkgmcl_� \u[hj�gZb[he__� [_ahiZkgh]h� \ZjbZglZ�

^he]hkjhqguo�bg\_klbpbc�

LZ[ebpZ��

Bkoh^gu_�^Zggu_�^ey�ZgZebaZ�lhqdb�[_am[ulhqghklb

IhdZaZl_eb AgZq_gby ihdZaZl_ey <ZjbZgl � <ZjbZgl �

=h^h\u_ ihklhyggu_ aZljZlu� jm[� 200 000 510 000 I_j_f_ggu_ aZljZlu gZ _^bgbpm ijh^mdpbb� jm[� 10 6 P_gZ _^bgbpu ijh^mdpbb� jm[� 16 16 DZiblZevgu_ aZljZlu �bg\_klbpbb�� jm[� 1 200 000 1 400 000

AZ^Zgb_��

GZ�hkgh\Zgbb�^Zgguo�lZ[e���

1. JZkkqblZlv�ihdZaZl_ev�qbklhc�l_dms_c�klhbfhklb�ijh_dlguo�^_g_`guo�ihlhdh\�

2. Hij_^_ebl_�^ey�ihemq_ggh]h�agZq_gby�NPV�b�ijb�g_baf_gghc�\_ebqbg_�^_g_`gh�

]h�ihlhdZ�hlj_]mebjh\Zggmx�ih�mjh\gx�ijh_dlgh]h�jbkdZ�^bkdhglgmx�klZ\dm�

LZ[ebpZ��

Bkoh^gu_�^Zggu_�^ey�hp_gdb�jbkdZ�k�bkihevah\Zgb_f�f_lh^Z �dhwnnbpb_glh\�hij_^_e_gghklb

IhdZaZl_eb AgZq_gb_ ihdZaZl_ey \ t - ]h^m 0 1 2

GZqZevgu_ bg\_klbpbhggu_ aZljZlu� luk� j� - 145 000 - - >_g_`guc ihlhd� luk� j� O + 108 500 + 126 000 Dhwnnbpb_glu hij_^_e_gghklb� dhwn� 1,0 0,9 0,8 Ijh_dlgZy ^bkdhglgZy klZ\dZ� � O 10 10

AZ^Zgb_��

6

GZ�hkgh\Zgbb�^Zgguo�lZ[e���

1. Hij_^_ebl_�NPV�k�bkihevah\Zgb_f�f_lh^Z�dhwnnbpb_glh\�hij_^_e_gghklb��\Z�

jbZgl����b�hlj_]mebjh\Zgguo�ih�mjh\gx�ijh_dlgh]h�jbkdZ�^bkdhglguo�klZ\hd��\ZjbZgl����

2. KhklZ\vl_�ZgZeblbq_kdh_�aZdexq_gb_�

LZ[ebpZ��

Bkoh^gu_�^Zggu_�^ey�jZkq_lZ�hlj_]mebjh\Zgghc�ih�mjh\gx�jbkdZ �qbklhc�l_dms_c�klhbfhklb�bg\_klbpbhggh]h�ijh_dlZ

IhdZaZl_eb =h^Z �t) t = 0 t = 1 t = 2 t = 3

GZqZevgu_ bg\_klbpbhggu_ aZljZlu� luk� j� - 975 000 - - - >_g_`gu_ ihlhdb� luk� j� O + 325 000 + 487 500 + 780 000 Dhwnnbpb_glu hij_^_e_gghklb� dhwn� 1,0 0,956 0,947 0,933 Hlj_]mebjh\ZggZy ih mjh\gx ijh_dlgh]h jbk�

dZ ^bkdhglgZy klZ\dZ� dhwn� O

0,1

0,12

0,14

;_ajbkdh\Zy ^bkdhglgZy klZ\dZ� dhwn� O 0,1 0,1 0,1

AZ^Zgb_��

GZ�hkgh\Zgbb�^Zgguo�lZ[e���

1. JZkkqblZcl_� dhwnnbpb_glu� \ZjbZpbb�ih� dZ`^hfm� ]h^m�j_ZebaZpbb�bg\_klbpb�

hggh]h�ijh_dlZ�

2. Hij_^_ebl_�^ey�dZ`^h]h�]h^Z�dhwnnbpb_gl�hij_^_e_gghklb��a t) ��_keb�ba\_klgh��

qlh�gZ�dZ`^u_������dhwnnbpb_glZ�\ZjbZpbb�a t [m^_l�kgb`Zlvky�gZ�����

3. JZkkqblZcl_� k� bkihevah\Zgb_f�f_lh^Z� dhwnnbpb_glh\� hij_^_e_gghklb�ihdZaZ�

l_ev�NPV��ijb�mkeh\bb��_keb�[_ajbkdh\Zy�^bkdhglgZy�klZ\dZ�jZ\gZ������

4. Ih�j_amevlZlZf�ZgZebaZ�khklZ\vl_�ibkvf_ggh_�aZdexq_gb_�

LZ[ebpZ��

�������������������>_g_`guc�ihlhd�bg\_klbpbhggh]h�ijh_dlZ�b�_]h�\_jhylghklb����������luk��j��

<_ebqbgZ =h^Z b \_jhylghklb ihemq_gby ^_g_`gh]h ihlhdZ ^_g_`gh]h ihlhdZ t = 0 t = 1 t = 2 t = 3

I_kkbfbklbq_kdh_ agZq_gb_ - 90 500 + 42 000 (0,005)

+ 42 000 (0,3)

+ 48 200 (0,4)

AZieZgbjh\Zggh_ agZq_gb_ - 90 500 + 60 000 (0,9)

+ 75 000 (0,6)

+ 124 000 (0,5)

Hilbfbklbq_kdh_ agZq_gb_ - 90 500 + 75 000 (0,005)

+ 90 000 (0,1)

+ 137 500 (0,1)

AZ^Zgb_��

GZ�hkgh\Zgbb�^Zgguo�lZ[e���

1. ;_a�mq_lZ�gZeh]h\�b�\ha^_ckl\by�bgneypbb�ijh\_^bl_�ZgZeba�qm\kl\bl_evghklb�

ijh_dlghc�NPV�d�baf_g_gbx�h[t_fZ�ijhba\h^kl\Z��kjhdZ�wdkiemZlZpbb�gh\h]h�h[hjm^h�

7

\Zgby�b�ebd\b^Zpbhgguo�^_g_`guo�ihlhdh\��klhbfhklv�ehfZ�b�^_lZe_c�klZjh]h�h[hjm^h�

\Zgby�aZ�fbgmkhf�jZkoh^h\�gZ�_]h�^_fhglZ`���_keb�\�j_amevlZl_�aZf_gu�baghr_ggh]h�h[h�

jm^h\Zgby�[he__�ijh]j_kkb\gufb�_]h�ZgZeh]Zfb�k_[_klhbfhklv�h[jZ[hldb�kujvy�kgbablky�

gZ���jm[��aZ�_^bgbpm�ijhba\h^bfhc�ijh^mdpbb�

2. KhklZ\vl_�ZgZeblbq_kdh_�aZdexq_gb_�

LZ[ebpZ��

Bkoh^gu_�^Zggu_�^ey�ZgZebaZ�bg\_klbpbhgghc�qm\kl\bl_evghklb

IhdZaZl_eb I_kkbfbklbq_k-db_ hp_gdb

AZieZgbjh\Zg-gu_ j_amevlZlu

Hilbfbklbq_k-db_ hp_gdb

=h^h\hc h[t_f ijhba\h^kl\Z� rl� 200 000 235 000 344 500 Kjhd wdkiemZlZpbb gh\h]h h[hjm^h\Zgby�

e_l� 6

9

13

Ebd\b^Zpbhggu_ ^_g_`gu_ ihlhdb� luk� j� 900 1 150 1 200 >bkdhglgZy klZ\dZ� � 10 10 10

AZ^Zgb_��

GZ�hkgh\Zgbb�^Zgguo�lZ[e���

1. Hij_^_eblv�h`b^Z_fmx�qbklmx�l_dmsmx�klhbfhklv�ijh_dlguo�^_g_`guo�ihlh�

dh\��bo�klZg^Zjlgh_�hldehg_gb_�b�dhwnnbpb_gl�\ZjbZpbb�

2. Hp_gbl_�\_jhylghklv�lh]h��qlh�NPV�[m^_l�iheh`bl_evghc�

3. KhklZ\vl_�ZgZeblbq_kdh_�aZdexq_gb_�

LZ[ebpZ��

>_g_`gu_�ihlhdb�bg\_klbpbhggh]h�ijh_dlZ�b�bo�\_jhylghklb*

t = 0 t = 1 t = 2 t = 3 Bg\_klbpbhggu_

aZljZlu � I0 )� luk� j� CF,

luk� j� <_jhylgh-klv� dhwn�

CF, luk� j�

<_jhylgh-klv� dhwn�

CF, luk� j�

<_jhylgh-klv� dhwn�

15 000 5 600 0,5 7 000 0,4 8 200 0,4 15 000 3 200 0,5 4 200 0,6 5 600 0,6 * >bkdhglgZy�klZ\dZ�jZ\gZ�����

AZ^Zgb_��

GZ�hkgh\Zgbb�^Zgguo�lZ[e���

1. Hij_^_eblv�mjh\_gv�jbkdh\Zgghklb�bg\_klbpbhgguo�ijh_dlh\�:��<�b�K�

2. KhklZ\blv�ZgZeblbq_kdh_�aZdexq_gb_��\�dhlhjhf�h[hkgh\u\Z_lky�\u[hj�gZb[h�

e__�[_ahiZkgh]h�\ZjbZglZ�dZiblZeh\eh`_gbc�

8

�LZ[ebpZ��

JZkq_l�h`b^Z_fhc�\_ebqbgu�ijh_dlgh]h�^_g_`gh]h�ihlhdZ *

� � ]h^ � ]h^ � ]h^ KF,

luk� j� <_jhyl-ghklv�

dhwn�

<a\_r_g-gZy \_eb�

qbgZ

KF, luk� j�

<_jhyl-ghklv�

dhwn�

<a\_�

r_ggZy

\_ebqbgZ

KF, luk� j�

<_jhyl

ghklv�

dhwn�

<a\_�

r_ggZy

\_ebqb�

gZ Ijh_dl :

1.1 150 0,5 200 0,5 150 0,5 1.2 180 0,5 250 0,5 180 0,5 H`b^Z_fZy \_ebqbgZ O O O O

Ijh_dl < 2.1 205 0,6 250 0,5 250 0,7 2.2 314 0,4 250 0,5 280 0,3 H`b^Z_fZy \_ebqbgZ O O O O

Ijh_dl K 3.1 166 0,6 180 0,6 200 0,5 3.2 135 0,4 150 0,4 190 0,5 H`b^Z_fZy \_ebqbgZ O O O O

*�?^bgh\j_f_ggu_�bg\_klbpbhggu_�aZljZlu�jZ\gu�^ey�\k_o�ijh_dlh\�b�khklZ\eyxl�

����luk��j���ijh_dlgZy�^bkdhglgZy�klZ\dZ�^ey�\k_o�ijh_dlh\�jZ\gZ������

F_lh^bq_kdb_�mdZaZgby�d�j_r_gbx�aZ^Zgby��

>ey� hp_gdb� mjh\gy� jbkdh\Zgghklb� ij_^klZ\e_gguo� \ZjbZglh\� dZiblZeh\eh`_gbc�

g_h[oh^bfh�hij_^_eblv�ihdZaZl_eb� klZg^Zjlgh]h�hldehg_gby�b� dhwnnbpb_glZ� \ZjbZpbb�

qbklhc�l_dms_c�klhbfhklb�ijh_dlguo�^_g_`guo�ihlhdh\��JZkq_l�\ZjbZpbb�KF�j_dhf_g^m�

_lky�hkms_kl\eylv�ih�dZ`^hfm�ijh_dlm�\�ki_pbZevghc�ZgZeblbq_kdhc�lZ[e�����

LZ[ebpZ��� JZkq_l�\ZjbZpbb�^_g_`gh]h�ihlhdZ�bg\_klbpbhggh]h�ijh_dlZ

\�t-�i_jbh^_

� i/i

H`b^Z_fZy \_ebqbgZ CFbijh]ghabjm_fh_

_]h agZq_gb_� luk� j�

Hldehg_gb_ hl

h`b^Z_fhc \_�

ebqbgu �]j�� - ]j�� ihklj���� luk� j�

D\Z^jZl hldehg_gby �]j��× ]j���

<_jhylghklv

kh[ulby� dhwn� <a\_r_ggZy

\_ebqbgZ �]j��× ]j���

1 2 3 4 5 6 1 O O O O 2 ... m

m+1 <ZjbZpby ijh_dlgh]h ^_g_`gh]h ihlhdZ �]j� �� klj�� � ��� � klj. m) H`b^Z_fZy�\_ebqbgZ�ihdZaZl_ey�NPV�jZkkqblu\Z_lky�ih�ke_^mxs_c�nhjfme_�

(139(&)

U

W

W

W

Q

=+=

∑� ���

,

]^_� �ENPV -�h`b^Z_fZy�\_ebqbgZ�qbklhc�l_dms_c�klhbfhklb��ECF -�h`b^Z_fZy�\_ebqbgZ�ijh_dlgh]h�^_g_`gh]h�ihlhdZ�\�t- i_jbh^�

9

?keb� ^_g_`gu_� ihlhdb� jZ\ghf_jgh� jZkij_^_eyxlky� \� l_q_gb_� klZg^Zjlgh]h� \j_�

f_ggh]h�bgl_j\ZeZ��Z�\�jZaebqgu_�i_jbh^u�\j_f_gb�g_�aZ\bkyl�^jm]�hl�^jm]Z��lh�klZg^Zjl�

gh_�hldehg_gb_�NPV (σ NPV ) fh`_l�[ulv�gZc^_gh�ih�nhjfme_

σσ

1 3 9

W

W

W

Q

U=

+=∑

� �� �,

]^_��σ 2t -�\ZjbZpby�ijh_dlgh]h�^_g_`gh]h�ihlhdZ�\�t -�i_jbh^_�

?keb� ^_g_`gu_� ihlhdb� y\eyxlky� Z[khexlgh� aZ\bkbfufb� ^jm]� hl� ^jm]Z�� lh� klZg�

^Zjlgh_�hldehg_gb_�NPV�j_dhf_g^m_lky�jZkkqblu\Zlv�ih�nhjfme_

σσ

1 3 9

W

W

W

Q

U=

+=∑

� ���

,

]^_���σ t -�klZg^Zjlgh_�hldehg_gb_�^_g_`gh]h�ihlhdZ�

Bkdhfh_�agZq_gb_�dhwnnbpb_glZ�\ZjbZpbb�qbklhc�l_dms_c�klhbfhklb��CVNPV) hi�

j_^_ey_lky�hlghr_gb_f�klZg^Zjlgh]h�hldehg_gby�NPV�d�_]h�h`b^Z_fhc�\_ebqbg_��Bg\_�

klbpbhgguc�ijh_dl��h[eZ^Zxsbc�gZbf_gvrbf�CVNPV� ��[m^_l�oZjZdl_jbah\Zlvky�dZd�gZb�

[he__�[_ahiZkguc�\ZjbZgl�dZiblZeh\eh`_gbc�

AZ^Zgb_���

GZ�hkgh\Zgbb�^Zgguo�lZ[e����

1. Hp_gblv�jbkdh\Zgghklv�ij_^klZ\e_ggh]h�\ZjbZglZ�dZiblZeh\eh`_gbc��_keb�kjhd�

j_ZebaZpbb�ijh_dlZ���e_l��_^bgh\j_f_ggu_�bg\_klbpbhggu_�aZljZlu�-������luk��j���ijh�

_dlgZy�^bkdhglgZy�klZ\dZ�-������\_ebqbgZ�^_g_`gh]h�ihlhdZ��CF��ihklhyggZ�^ey�dZ`^h]h�

]h^Z�j_ZebaZpbb�ijh_dlZ�

2. KhklZ\blv�ibkvf_ggh_�ZgZeblbq_kdh_�aZdexq_gb_�

LZ[ebpZ���

IeZgbjm_fu_�j_amevlZlu�j_ZebaZpbb�bg\_klbpbhggh]h�ijh_dlZ

IhdZaZl_eb <_jhylghklv kh[ulby� dhwn� 0,02 0,1 0,15 0,25 0,45 0,03

=h^h\hc h[t_f ijh^Z` �N�� luk� j� 438,79 455,0 463,0 477,94 496,32 516,69 =h^h\u_ ihegu_ ba^_j`db gZ ijhba\h^�

kl\h b j_ZebaZpbx ijh^mdpbb (S�� luk�j�

220,0

209,82

191,44

180,0

172,0

166,0 =h^h\hc h[t_f ZfhjlbaZpbb HN �:��

luk� j�

45,0

45,0

45,0

45,0

45,0

45,0

F_lh^bq_kdb_�mdZaZgby�d�j_r_gbx�aZ^Zgb_���

1. >ey� hij_^_e_gby� \_ebqbgu� ^_g_`gh]h� ihlhdZ� bkihevamcl_� ke_^mxsmx� mijh�

s_ggmx�nhjfmem���KF = N - S + A��G_�mqblu\Zcl_�mjh\_gv�gZeh]hh[eh`_gby��Ij_^iheZ-

10

]Z_lky�ijbf_g_gb_�ijyfhebg_cgh]h�f_lh^Z�gZqbke_gby�ZfhjlbaZpbb�

2. J_dhf_g^m_lky� jZkkqblZlv� ^ey� dZ`^h]h� kemqZy� ihdZaZl_ev�NPV�� aZl_f� hij_^_�

eblv�_]h�h`b^Z_fmx�\_ebqbgm��klZg^Zjlgh_�hldehg_gb_�b�dhwnnbpb_gl�\ZjbZpbb�

3. <�oh^_�ZgZebaZ�fh`gh�ihemqblv�g_^hklZlhqgh�h[t_dlb\gu_�hp_gdb�mjh\gy�[_ah�

iZkghklb� dhgdj_lgh]h� \ZjbZglZ� dZiblZeh\eh`_gbc��Wlh�fh`_l�ijhbahclb� \� lhf� kemqZ_��

_keb�\�ZgZeba_�bkihevam_lky�kdehg_ggh_��g_�kbff_ljbqgh_��\_jhylghklgh_�jZkij_^_e_gb_�

[Zah\uo� ihdZaZl_e_c� bg\_klbjh\Zgby� �j_glZ[_evghklb�� ^_g_`guo� ihlhdh\�� qbklhc� l_dm�

s_c�klhbfhklb�b�ij����>ey�ihemq_gby�[he__�^hklh\_jguo�j_amevlZlh\�j_dhf_g^m_lky�jZk�

kqblu\Zlv�ihdZaZl_eb�ihem\ZjbZpbb�b�ihemklZg^Zjlgh]h�hldehg_gby��IhdZaZl_ev�ihem\Z�

jbZpbb�qbklhc�l_dms_c�klhbfhklb��SVNPV)�hij_^_ey_lky�ih�ke_^mxs_c�nhjfme_�

69 3 139 (139139 L

L

P

L= × −

=∑

�� � ,

]^_��m -�kibkhd�\hafh`guo�agZq_gbc�NPV��dhlhju_�[m^ml�f_gvr_�__�h`b^Z_fhc�\_ebqbgu�

(NPV i < ENPV); Pi - \_jhylghklv��i-�]h�kh[ulby�

IhemklZg^Zjlgh_�hldehg_gb_�qbklhc�l_dms_c�klhbfhklb��σSV)��ijb\_^_ggh_�d�h^b�

gZdh\hc� jZaf_jghklb� k� hjb]bgZevgufb� agZq_gbyfb� ^Zggh]h� ihdZaZl_ey�� j_dhf_g^m_lky�

jZkkqblu\Zlv ih�ke_^mxs_c�nhjfme_�

σ69 139

69= � .

AgZq_gb_� ihdZaZl_ey� σSV� [m^_l� b^_glbqguf� \_ebqbg_� hjb]bgZevgh]h� ihdZaZl_ey�

klZg^Zjlgh]h�hldehg_gby��_keb�\�ZgZeba_�bkihevam_lky�ghjfZevgh_��kbff_ljbqgh_��\_jh�

ylghklgh_�jZkij_^_e_gb_��[m^_l�[hevr_��_keb�kms_kl\m_l�agZqbl_evgZy�\_jhylghklv�om^�

r_]h�khklhygby�h[t_dlZ�bkke_^h\Zgby�ih�kjZ\g_gbx�k�h`b^Z_fufb�_]h�oZjZdl_jbklbdZfb�

�\_jhylghklgh_�jZkij_^_e_gb_�kdehgy_lky�\�e_\h���[m^_l�f_gvr_��_keb�\_jhylghklgh_�jZk�

ij_^_e_gb_�kdehgy_lky�\ijZ\h��g_�bf__lky�kms_kl\_gghc�\_jhylghklb�ihemq_gby�om^rbo�

j_amevlZlh\�bg\_klbjh\Zgby���<� aZdexq_gbb�ZgZebaZ�ij_^eZ]Z_lky�k�bkihevah\Zgb_f�σSV

hij_^_eblv� dhwnnbpb_gl� \ZjbZpbb�b� kjZ\gblv�ihemq_gguc� j_amevlZl� k�i_j\hgZqZevghc�

_]h�\_ebqbghc��

AZ^Zgb_���

GZ�hkgh\Zgbb�^Zgguo�lZ[e����

1. Hij_^_ebl_�� gZkdhevdh� qm\kl\bl_evgZ� ijh_dlgZy� NPV� d� baf_g_gbx� \� p_gZo��

h[t_f_�ijh^Z`��ihklhygguo�b�i_j_f_gguo�aZljZlZo��p_g_�dZiblZeZ� �^bkdhglghc�klZ\db���

ijh^he`bl_evghklb�wdkiemZlZpbb�ijh_dlZ�b�_^bgh\j_f_gguo�bg\_klbpbhgguo�aZljZlZo�

2. KhklZ\vl_�ZgZeblbq_kdh_�aZdexq_gb_�

11

LZ[ebpZ���

IeZgbjm_fu_��h`b^Z_fu_���i_kkbfbklbq_kdb_�b�hilbfbklbq_kdb_�hp_gdb \hafh`guo�j_amevlZlh\�j_ZebaZpbb�bg\_klbpbhggh]h�ijh_dlZ

* IhdZaZl_eb I_kkbfbklbq_k-

db_ agZq_gby H`b^Z_fu_ agZq_gby

Hilbfbklbq_k-db_ hp_gdb

H[t_f ijh^Z`� luk� rl� 65 78 120 P_gZ _^bgbpu ijh^mdpbb� jm[� 20,0 22,4 26,2 =h^h\u_ ihklhyggu_ aZljZlu

� jm[�

\ l�q� ZfhjlbaZpby 480 000 90 000

480 000 90 000

390 000 90 000

I_j_f_ggu_ aZljZlu� jm[� 16 14 12 Kjhd j_ZebaZpbb ijh_dlZ� e_l 6 8 10 ?^bgh\j_f_ggu_ bg\_klbpbhggu_

aZljZlu� jm[�

1 400 000

1 200 000

1 000 000 Ijh_dlgZy ^bkdhglgZy klZ\dZ� dhwn� 12 10 8

*�KlZ\dZ�gZeh]Z�gZ�ijb[uev�- 35%

F_lh^bq_kdb_�mdZaZgby�d�j_r_gbx�aZ^Zgby���

I_j\hgZqZevgh� j_dhf_g^m_lky� jZkkqblZlv� ihdZaZl_ev� qbklhc� l_dms_c� klhbfhklb��

bkihevamy�^ey�wlbo�p_e_c�h`b^Z_fu_�agZq_gby�ijb\_^_gguo�\�lZ[e�����i_j_f_gguo��Ih�

emq_gguc�j_amevlZl�NPV�[m^_l�jZkkfZljb\Zlvky�\�dZq_kl\_�[Zah\hc�\_ebqbgu�� agZq_gb_�

dhlhjh]h� [m^_l� ij_^klZ\e_gh� \� [bag_k-ieZg_� ^Zggh]h� \ZjbZglZ� dZiblZeh\eh`_gbc�� GZ�

ke_^mxs_f� wlZi_� ZgZebaZ� g_h[oh^bfh� gZclb� NPV�� hklZ\b\� \� jZkq_l_� wlh]h� ihdZaZl_ey�

h`b^Z_fu_� agZq_gby�\k_o�i_j_f_gguo� aZ�bkdexq_gb_f�i_j_f_gghc��qm\kl\bl_evghklv�d�

baf_g_gbx� dhlhjhc�fu�iulZ_fky� hij_^_eblv��<� wlhf� kemqZ_� dZ`^hc�i_j_f_gghc�[m^ml�

khhl\_lkl\h\Zlv�^\Z�j_amevlZlZ�NPV� �ih�__�i_kkbfbklbq_kdhfm�b�hilbfbklbq_kdhfm�agZ�

q_gbx���<� aZdexq_gb_� ZgZebaZ� lj_[m_lky� \uqbkeblv� hlghkbl_evgh_� hldehg_gb_� gZbom^�

rbo�b�gZbemqrbo�agZq_gbc�NPV�hl�[Zah\hc�\_ebqbgu�^Zggh]h�h[h[sZxs_]h�ihdZaZl_ey�

AZ^Zgb_���

Bggh\Zpbhgguc� ijh_dl� aZ\_jrbeky� jZajZ[hldhc� gh\h]h� ijh]jZffgh]h� ijh^mdlZ��

:^fbgbkljZpby�dhfiZgbb�jZkkfZljb\Z_l�g_kdhevdh�kp_gZjb_\�ih\_^_gby�gZ�jugd_��hkm�

s_kl\eylv�beb�g_l�ij_^\Zjbl_evgu_�bkke_^h\Zgby�jugdZ��dhgdmj_glgh]h�hdjm`_gby��l_g�

^_gpbc�jZa\blby�hljZkeb�b�ij����g_f_^e_ggh�ijh^Zlv�k\hx�jZajZ[hldm�djmighc�dhgdmjb�

jmxs_c�nbjf_�k�[he__�jZa\_l\e_gghc�^be_jkdhc�k_lvx�beb�kZfhklhyl_evgh�gZqZlv�__�j_Z�

ebaZpbx� gZ� jugd_�� Ki_pbZebklu� fZjd_lbg]h\h]h� hl^_eZ� b� nbgZgkh\h-wdhghfbq_kdbo�

kem`[�dhfiZgbb�hp_gbeb�km[t_dlb\gu_�\_jhylghklb�ihemq_gby�ihke_gZeh]h\h]h�^_g_`�

gh]h�ihlhdZ�^ey�dZ`^hc�\hafh`ghc�kblmZpbb�

GZ�hkgh\Zgbb�^Zgguo�lZ[e����

12

1. H[hkgh\Zlv�k�bkihevah\Zgb_f�f_lh^Z� ©^_j_\h�j_r_gbcª�gZb[he__�ijb_fe_fu_�

^ey�dhfiZgbb�\ZjbZglu�ih\_^_gby�gZ�jugd_�

2. KhklZ\blv�ZgZeblbq_kdh_�aZdexq_gb_�

LZ[ebpZ���

IhdZaZl_eb�NPV�^_g_`guo�ihlhdh\��bggh\Zpbhggh]h�ijh_dlZ�b �������������bo�\_jhylghklb�\�dZ`^hc�wdhghfbq_kdhc�kblmZpbb���������������luk��j��

Ijh]ghab-jm_fuc

J_r_gby ijbgbfZxlky [_a ijh\_^_gby

J_r_gby ijbgbfZxlky k mq_lhf j_amevlZlh\ fZjd_lbg]h\uo bkke_^h\Zgbc

mjh\_gv

kijhkZ fZjd_lbg]h\uo bkke_^h\Zgbc

;eZ]hijbylgZy kblmZpby

gZ jugd_ ������ G_[eZ]hijbylgZy kblmZpby

gZ jugd_ ����� � :evl_jgZlb\gu_ j_r_gby :evl_jgZlb\gu_ j_r_gby :evl_jgZlb\gu_ j_r_gby Ijh^Zlv

^jm]hc

nbjf_

KZfhklhy-l_evgh j_Z�

ebah\Zlv

Ijh^Zlv

^jm]hc

nbjf_

KZfhklhy-l_evgh j_Z�

ebah\Zlv

Ijh^Zlv

^jm]hc

nbjf_

KZfhklhy-l_evgh j_Z�

ebah\Zlv <ukhdbc + 6 120 + 20 400

(0,5) + 7 625 + 17 000

(0,75) + 1 725 + 17 000

(0,2) Kj_^gbc + 6 120 + 9 600

(0,2) + 7 625 + 3 475

(0,2) + 1 725 + 3 475

(0,3) Gbadbc + 6 120 - 8 500

(0,3) + 7 625 - 10 400

(0,05) + 1 725 - 10 400

(0,5)

F_lh^bq_kdb_�mdZaZgby�d�j_r_gbx�aZ^Zgby���

<�oh^_�ihkljh_gby�^_j_\Z�j_r_gbc�j_dhf_g^m_lky�bkihevah\Zlv�ke_^mxsb_�kbf�

\heu��� -�lhqdb�ijbgylby�j_r_gbc��{ -�\_jhylghklb�kh[ulbc�

AZ^Zgb_���

GZ�hkgh\Zgbb�^Zgguo�lZ[e����

1. Hp_gblv�k�bkihevah\Zgb_f�ihdZaZl_ey�NPV�b�f_lh^Z�©^_j_\h�j_r_gbcª�gZb[h�

e__�\_jhylgu_�j_amevlZlu�j_ZebaZpbb�bg\_klbpbhggh]h�ijh_dlZ��_keb�gZqZevgu_�bg\_klb�

pbhggu_�aZljZlu�jZ\gu�����luk��j���Z�ijh_dlgZy�^bkdhglgZy�klZ\dZ�- 14 % .

2. KhklZ\blv�ZgZeblbq_kdh_�aZdexq_gb_��\�dhlhjhf�^Z_lky�oZjZdl_jbklbdZ�mjh\gy�

jbkdh\Zgghklb�ij_^klZ\e_ggh]h�\ZjbZglZ�dZiblZeh\eh`_gbc�

LZ[ebpZ���

����������������������>_g_`gu_�ihlhdb�bg\_klbpbhggh]h�ijh_dlZ�b�bo�\_jhylghklb .

� ]h^ � ]h^ � ]h^ 1 2 3

���� luk� j� ����� ?keb KF aZ � ]h^ [m^_l jZ\_g ����

luk� j�� lh \h \lhjhf ]h^m CF kh�klZ\bl ����� luk� j� ����� beb ����

luk� j� �����

?keb CF aZ � ]h^ [m^_l jZ\_g ����� luk�

j�� lh \ lj_lv_f ]h^m CF khklZ\bl �����luk� j� ����� beb ����� luk� j� �����

13

HdhgqZgb_�lZ[e���� 1 2 3

����� luk� j� ����� ?keb CF aZ � ]h^ [m^_l jZ\_g

����� luk� j�� lh \h \lhjhf ]h^m

CF khklZ\bl ����� luk� j� �����beb ����� luk� j� �����

?keb CF aZ � ]h^ [m^_l jZ\_g ���� luk�

j�� lh \ lj_lv_f ]h^m CF khklZ\bl �����luk� j� ����� beb ���� luk� j� ����� ?keb CF aZ � ]h^ [m^_l jZ\_g ����� luk�

j�� lh \ lj_lv_f ]h^m CF khklZ\bl �����luk� j� ����� beb ����� luk� j� ����� ?keb CF aZ � ]h^ [m^_l jZ\_g ����� luk�

j�� lh \ lj_lv_f ]h^m CF khklZ\bl �����luk� j� ����� beb ���� luk� j� �����

AZ^Zgb_���

GZ�hkgh\Zgbb�^Zgguo�lZ[e����

1��Hij_^_ebl_�kj_^g__�agZq_gb_�ihdZaZl_e_c��bkihevam_fuo�^ey�jZkq_lZ�qbklhc�l_�

dms_c�klhbfhklb�ijh_dlguo�^_g_`guo�ihlhdh\�

���Hp_gbl_�djblbq_kdmx�\_ebqbgm�h[t_fZ�ijh^Z`��i_j_f_gguo�b�ihklhygguo�ba�

^_j`_d��p_gu�_^bgbpu�ijh^mdpbb��kjhdZ�j_ZebaZpbb��gZeh]h\hc�gZ]jmadb��gZqZevguo�bg�

\_klbpbhgguo�aZljZl�b�p_gu�bg\_klbjh\Zggh]h�\�ijh_dl�dZiblZeZ��ijb�dhlhjuo�NPV�ijh�

_dlZ�[m^_l�jZ\gZ���

���KhklZ\vl_�ZgZeblbq_kdh_�aZdexq_gb_��\�dhlhjhf�^Z_lky�hp_gdZ�qm\kl\bl_evghklb�

[Zah\uo�ihdZaZl_e_c�^Zggh]h�\ZjbZglZ�dZiblZeh\eh`_gbc�

LZ[ebpZ���

Bkoh^gu_�^Zggu_�^ey�ZgZebaZ�bg\_klbpbhgghc�qm\kl\bl_evghklb

IHD:A:L?EB Mkeh\-gu_

AgZq_gby�ihdZaZl_e_c�\� t-�i_jbh^�\j_f_gb

Kj_^g__�

agZq_gb_ h[ha-gby t=0 t=1 t=2 t=3 : 1 2 3 4 5 6

���=h^h\hc�h[t_f�

j_ZebaZpbb��rl� Q O 200 250 290

���I_j_f_ggu_�ba^_j`db�

gZ�_^bg��ijh^mdpbb��jm[� KV O 14 200 13 500 14 000

���P_gZ�_^bgbpu�ijh�

^mdpbb��jm[� Pr O 18 500 20 000 20 000

���=h^h\u_�mkeh\gh- ihklhyggu_�aZljZlu��jm[�

KF O 250 800 290 500 334 000

���Kjhd�j_ZebaZpbb��e_l� n 0 1 2 3 3

���<_ebqbgZ�ZfhjlbaZpbb��

HN�aZ�]h^��jm[� D O 140 500 140 500 120 620

���GZqZevgu_�bg\_klb�

pbhggu_�aZljZlu��jm[� I0 2 067000 O O O 2 067000

���>bkdhglgZy�klZ\dZ��

dhwn� r O 0,12 0,12 0,12 0,12

14

��������HdhgqZgb_�lZ[e���� : 1 2 3 4 5 6

���NZdlhj�l_dms_c�

klhbfhklb��dhwn� PVIFr, n ,

PVIFA r, n

����KlZ\dZ�gZeh]Z�gZ�

ijb[uev��dhwn� tax O 0,175 0,35 0,35

����Qbkluc�hi_jZpbhg�

guc�^_g_`guc�ihlhd�

�>klj���× ��klj��-klj����- klj��@�× (1 -�klj�������klj�����jm[�

K)

0

����QbklZy�l_dmsZy�

klhbfhklv�gZjZklZxsbf�

blh]hf��jm[�

NPV

AZ^Zgb_���

GZ�hkgh\Zgbb�^Zgguo�lZ[e����

1. JZkkqblZcl_� beta -� dhwnnbpb_gl� dhfiZgbb�� ieZgbjmxs_c� gZ� jugd_� dZiblZeh\�

ijb\e_qv�^hihegbl_evgu_�kj_^kl\Z�^ey�nbgZgkbjh\Zgby�bg\_klbpbhggh]h�ijh_dlZ�

2. Ibkvf_ggh� khklZ\vl_� ZgZeblbq_kdh_� aZdexq_gb_�� \� dhlhjhf� h[hkgh\u\Z_lky�

mjh\_gv�qm\kl\bl_evghklb�^Zgghc�hj]ZgbaZpbb�d�\ha^_ckl\bx�fZdjhwdhghfbq_kdbo�nZd�

lhjh\�jbkdZ�

AZ^Zgb_���

GZ�hkgh\Zgbb�^Zgguo�lZ[e����

���K�bkihevah\Zgb_f�^Zgguo�ih�kjZ\gbfuf�dhfiZgbyf�jZkkqblZlv�beta -�dhwnnb�

pb_gl�ij_^ijbylby�:<K�

���<�ZgZeblbq_kdhf� aZdexq_gbb�hoZjZdl_jbah\Zlv�mjh\_gv�[_ahiZkghklb�bg\_klb�

jh\Zgby�kj_^kl\�\�dhfiZgbx�:<K�ih�kjZ\g_gbx�kh�kj_^g_hljZke_\uf�mjh\g_f�jbkdZ�

AZ^Zgb_���

GZ�hkgh\Zgbb�^Zgguo�lZ[e����

���JZkkqblZcl_�j_glZ[_evghklv�bg\_klbpbb�k�bkihevah\Zgb_f�:JL�-�fh^_eb�

���GZ�hkgh\_�K:JF�-�fh^_eb�hij_^_ebl_�j_glZ[_evghklv�bg\_klbpbb�k�bkihevah\Z�

gb_f�agZq_gby�beta -�dhwnnbpb_glZ��jZkkqblZggh]h�\�mijZ`g_gbb����

���KhklZ\vl_�ZgZeblbq_kdh_�aZdexq_gb_�

15

LZ[ebpZ���

JZkq_l�beta -�dhwnnbpb_glh\�gZ�hkgh\_�km[t_dlb\guo�\_jhylghkl_c

� Khklhygb_�

jugdZ� dZiblZeh\�

<_jhyl-ghklv� dhwn�

Kj_^gyy�^hoh^�

ghklv�hi_jZpbc�

gZ�jugd_���

>hoh^ghklv�

h[udgh\_gguo�

Zdpbc� dhfiZgbb���

<_jhylgh_�agZ�

q_gb_�kj_^g_c�

^hoh^ghklb��]j���

× ]j������

<_jhylgh_�agZ�

q_gb_�^hoh^gh�

klb�Zdpbc�dhf�

iZgbb��]j���

× ]j�����%

<_jhylgh_�d\Z^�

jZlgh_�hldehg_�

gb_�kj_^g_c�^h�

oh^ghklb�hl�__�

h`b^Z_fhc�\_�

ebqbgu��[]j���- klj��]2 × ]j����

%

<aZbfgh_�baf_�

g_gb_�^hoh^gh�

klb�Zdpbc�b�

kj_^g_jughqghc�

^hoh^ghklb�

([]j���-�klj��] × []j���-�klj��]

× ]j������� : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 KblmZpby�� 0,05 40,0 65,0

2 KblmZpby�� 0,5 30,0 40,0

3 KblmZpby�� 0,4 20,0 35,0

4 KblmZpby�� 0,05 10,0 15,0

5 H`b^Z_fZy�^hoh^ghklv�jughqgh]h�ihjln_ey��]j����klj�����

klj������klj������klj�������

O O O

6 H`b^Z_fZy�^hoh^ghklv�Zdpbc�dhfiZgbb��]j���klj�����klj������klj������klj������ O O

7 <ZjbZpby�^hoh^ghklb�jughqgh]h�ihjln_ey��]j����klj�����klj������klj������klj������� O

8 Dh\ZjbZpby�^hoh^ghkl_c�Zdpbc�dhfiZgbb�b�jughqgh]h�ihjln_ey��]j����klj�����klj������klj������klj����

9 Beta -�dhwnnbpb_gl�dhfiZgbb��klj����/�klj������dhwn�

16

LZ[ebpZ���

JZkq_l�beta -�dhwnnbpb_glZ�k�bkihevah\Zgb_f�^Zgguo�ih�kjZ\gbfuf�dhfiZgbyf

� i/i

Kibkhd kjZ\gb-fuo dhf- iZgbc

<_ebqbgZ

aZ_fgh]h

dZiblZeZ�

luk� j�

<_ebqbgZ

kh[kl\_g- gh]h dZib�

lZeZ� luk� j�

NbgZgkh-\uc juqZ]

�]j�� / ]j����dhwn�

Beta -dhwnnb�pb_glu kjZ\�

gbfuo dhfiZ�

gbc� dhwn�

G_hlj_]mebjh\Zg-gu_ betakjZ\gbfuodhfiZgbc �]j� � / [1

+ ]j��]�� dhwn� : 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 O 12 890 106 070 1,05 2 Y 16 789 87 200 1,4 3 Z 8 930 148 881 1,2 4 Q 23 568 120 740 1,65 5 :<K 10 650 100 750 o o 6 Kj_^gyy Zjbnf_lbq_kdZy beta ba kibkdZ kjZ\gbfuo dhfiZgbc� dhwn� 7 Kdhjj_dlbjh\ZggZy betadhfiZgbb :<K �klj�� × [1 + klj�� ih ]j� �]),

dhwn�

�LZ[ebpZ���

Bkoh^gu_�^Zggu_�^ey�jZkq_lZ�h`b^Z_fhc�j_glZ[_evghklb�bg\_klbpbb �k�bkihevah\Zgb_f�:JL�-�fh^_eb*

NZdlhju jughqgh]h �kbkl_fZlbq_kdh]h� jbkdZ

Qm\kl\bl_evghklv bg\_�

klbpbb d \ebygbx bg^b\b�

^mZevguo nZdlhjh\ kbkl_�

fZlbq_kdh]h jbkdZ

Jbkdh\Zy ij_fby� dhf�

i_gkbjmxsZy \ha^_ckl�

\b_ bg^b\b^mZevguo nZd�

lhjh\ kbkl_fZlbq_kdh]h

jbkdZ� � �� Dhe_[Zgby l_fih\ jhklZ ijhfur�

e_ggh]h ijhba\h^kl\Z

0,4

3,0 �� G_ij_^\b^_ggh_ baf_g_gb_ \ kljmd�

lmj_ ijhp_glguo klZ\hd

1,5

8,0 �� Dhe_[Zgby jbkdh\hc ij_fbb m dhj�

ihjZlb\guo h[eb]Zpbc

0,4

5,0 �� G_h`b^Zgguc jhkl bgneypbb 1,5 10,0 �� J_adbc jhkl dmjkZ ^heeZjZ KR: 1,8 15,0

*�;_ajbkdh\Zy�ijhp_glgZy�klZ\dZ�jZ\gZ�����

AZ^Zgb_���

GZ�hkgh\Zgbb�^Zgguo�lZ[e����

1. Hij_^_ebl_� ^ey� ij_^ijbylby�� qvb� ^Zggu_� ij_^klZ\e_gu� \� lZ[e�� ���� jbkdh\mx�

ij_fbx�b�k�bkihevah\Zgb_f�ihemq_gguo�j_amevlZlh\�jZkkqblZcl_�fbgbfZevguc�mjh\_gv�

j_glZ[_evghklb�^he]hkjhqghc�bg\_klbpbb�

2. >Zcl_�oZjZdl_jbklbdm�jZaebqguf�lbiZf�jbkdZ��\hagbdZxsbf�\�ijhp_kk_�j_Zeb�

aZpbb�^he]h\j_f_gghc�ijh]jZffu�bg\_klbpbhggh]h�jZa\blby�dhff_jq_kdhc�hj]ZgbaZpbb�

17

3. KhklZ\vl_�ZgZeblbq_kdh_�aZdexq_gb_��\�dhlhjhf�^Z_lky�oZjZdl_jbklbdZ�aZ\bkb�

fhklb� jbkdZ� b� j_glZ[_evghklb� ih� lj_f� \hafh`guf� \ZjbZglZf� khklhygby� wdhghfbdb� b�

dhgdj_lgh]h�ohayckl\mxs_]h�km[t_dlZ��

LZ[ebpZ���

Bkoh^gu_�^Zggu_�^ey�jZkq_lZ�fbgbfZevgh�ijb_fe_fhc�^ey�khhl\_lkl\mxs_]h�

mjh\gy�jbkdZ�j_glZ[_evghklb��^he]hkjhqghc�bg\_klbpbb

IhdZaZl_eb � \ZjbZgl � \ZjbZgl � \ZjbZgl �� ;_ajbkdh\Zy klZ\dZ j_glZ[_evghklb� � 18 25 30 �� Kj_^g_hljZke_\Zy j_glZ[_evghklv� � 30 40 45 �� Qm\kl\bl_evghklv h[h[sZxsbo ihdZaZl_e_c

wnn_dlb\ghklb ijhba\h^kl\_ggh-nbgZgkh\hc^_yl_evghklb ij_^ijbylby d \ha^_ckl\bx fZdjh�

wdhghfbq_kdbo nZdlhjh\ jbkdZ �beta�� dhwn�

0,8

1,0

1,5 �� KlZ\dZ j_nbgZgkbjh\Zgby� mklZgZ\eb\Z_fZy

P; JN� �

30

50

60 �� >hey aZ_fgh]h dZiblZeZ \ h[s_f h[t_f_ nb�

gZgkbjh\Zgby bg\_klbpbhggh]h ijh_dlZ� dhwn�

1,0

0,7

0,4

AZ^Zgb_���

GZ�hkgh\Zgbb�^Zgguo�lZ[e����

1. JZkkqblZcl_�klZg^Zjlgh_�hldehg_gb_�b�dhwnnbpb_gl�\ZjbZpbb�^\mo�dhf[bgZpbc�

ijh_dlh\�:�b�<��_keb�ih�i_j\hfm�\ZjbZglm�^hey�ijh_dlZ�:�khklZ\ey_l�������^hey�ijh_dlZ�

<�-�������ih�\lhjhfm�\ZjbZglm�mdZaZggu_�ijh_dlu�bf_xl�h^bgZdh\u_�^heb�\�h[s_f�ihjl�

n_e_�bg\_klbpbc�

2. Hij_^_ebl_�kl_i_gv�jbkdZ�bg^b\b^mZevgh�^ey�dZ`^h]h�ijh_dlZ�

3. KhklZ\vl_�ZgZeblbq_kdh_� aZdexq_gb_��\�dhlhjhf�h[hkgh\u\Z_lky�\u[hj�gZb[h�

e__�[_ahiZkgh]h�ihjln_ey�bg\_klbpbc�

LZ[ebpZ���

Hp_gdZ�h`b^Z_fuo�^_g_`guo�ihlhdh\�ih�ijh_dlZf�:�b�<

Khklhygb_

wdhghfbdb <_jhylghklv�

dhwn� Ijh_dlgZy j_glZ[_evghklv

(r), % <a\_r_ggZy \_ebqbgZ ijh_dl�

ghc j_glZ[_evghklb� � Ijh_dl : Ijh_dl < Ijh_dl :

�]j� � × ]j� �� Ijh_dl <

�]j� � × ]j� �� : 1 2 3 4 5

KblmZpby � 0,1 35 28 KblmZpby � 0,45 24 25 KblmZpby � 0,4 18 18 KblmZpby � 0,05 6 12

H`b^Z_fZy \_ebqbgZ ijh_dlghc j_glZ[_evghklb � �U ), %

18

F_lh^bq_kdb_�mdZaZgby�d�j_r_gbx�aZ^Zgby���

Bkihevamy�^Zggu_�lZ[e������j_dhf_g^m_lky�hij_^_eylv�h`b^Z_fmx�\_ebqbgm�j_glZ�

[_evghklb�ihjln_ey�bg\_klbpbc�� �U3���JZkq_l�ijhba\_klb�ih�ke_^mxs_c�nhjfme_�

� �U G U3 L

L

Q

L= ×

=∑

,

]^_��di -�^hey�i-]h�ijh_dlZ�\�ihjln_e_�bg\_klbpbc��n -�dhebq_kl\h�ijh_dlh\�

>ey�jZkq_lZ�klZg^Zjlgh]h�hldehg_gby�dhf[bgZpbb�ijh_dlh\�:�b�<�g_h[oh^bfh�mk�

lZgh\blv� \aZbfhk\yav�f_`^m� j_glZ[_evghklyfb�ij_^klZ\e_gguo�\ZjbZglh\�dZiblZeh\eh�

`_gbc��IhklZ\e_ggZy� aZ^ZqZ�fh`_l�[ulv� j_r_gZ� \� oh^_� ZgZebaZ�ihdZaZl_ey� dh\ZjbZpbb�

�KOVAB)��>Zgguc�ihdZaZl_ev�bkqbkey_lky�ih�nhjfme_

&29 U U U U 3$% $L

L

Q

$ %L % L= − × − ×

=∑ � � � � � �

.

BkdhfZy�\_ebqbgZ�klZg^Zjlgh]h�hldehg_gby�ihjln_ey�bg\_klbpbc��σj����khklhys_�

]h�ba�^\mo�ijh_dlh\��fh`_l�[ulv�gZc^_gZ�ih�ke_^mxs_c�nhjfme_�

σ σ σS $ % $%G G G G &29= × + − × + × × − ×� � � �� � �� � � � ,

]^_� �d -�^hey�ijh_dlZ�:�\�ihjln_e_�bg\_klbpbc�����- d) -�^hey�ijh_dlZ�<�� σ$

� -�\ZjbZpby�

j_glZ[_evghklb�ijh_dlZ�:��σ<

� -�\ZjbZpby�j_glZ[_evghklb�ijh_dlZ�<�

Hp_gdZ�\ZjbZpbb��klZg^Zjlgh]h�hldehg_gby�b�jZkq_l�ihdZaZl_ey�dh\ZjbZpbb�bg\_�

klbpbhgguo�ijh_dlh\�:�b�<�j_dhf_g^m_lky�hkms_kl\eylv�\�ki_pbZevguo�ZgZeblbq_kdbo�

lZ[e�����b�lZ[e�����

LZ[ebpZ���

Hp_gdZ�\ZjbZpbb�b�klZg^Zjlgh]h�hldehg_gby�j_glZ[_evghklb �bg\_klbpbhgguo�ijh_dlh\�:�b�<

� i/i

Ijh_dlgZy

j_glZ[_ev-ghklv� �

<_jhyl-ghklv�

dhwn�

H`b^Z_fZy

j_glZ[_ev-ghklv� �

Hldehg_gb_

�]j�� - ]j����%

D\Z^jZlgh_

hldehg_gb_

�]j�� × ]j���

<a\_r_ggh_

d\Z^jZlgh_ hl�

dehg_gb_

�]j�� × ]j��� : 1 2 3 4 5 6

�� Ijh_dl : 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 <ZjbZpby �ih ]j��� klj���� � klj���� � klj���� � klj� ��� 1.6 KlZg^Zjlgh_ hldehg_gb_ �[klj� ���]1/ 2 )

�� Ijh_dl < 2.1 2.2

19

HdhgqZgb_�lZ[e���� : 1 2 3 4 5 6 2.3 2.4 2.5 <ZjbZpby �ih ]j��� klj���� � klj���� � klj���� � klj����� 2.6 KlZg^Zjlgh_ hldehg_gb_ �[klj� ���]1/ 2 )

LZ[ebpZ��� JZkq_l�dh\ZjbZpbb�ijh_dlh\�:�b�<

� J_glZ[_evghklv� � <_jhyl- Hldehg_gb_� � Ijhba\_- <a\_r_g- i/i Ijh_dl : Ijh_dl < ghklv�

dhwn� Ijh_dl :

�]j�� - - �U

$)

Ijh_dl < �]j�� -

- �U<

)

^_gb_ hl�

dehg_gbc

�]j��

× ]j���

gZy \_eb�

qbgZ �]j��

× ]j���

: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 Dh\ZjbZpby ijh_dlh\ : b < �ih ]j��� klj�� � klj�� � klj�� � klj� ��

AZ^Zgb_���

GZ�hkgh\Zgbb�^Zgguo�lZ[e����

1. Hij_^_ebl_�gZbf_g__�jbkdh\Zgguc�ihjln_ev�bg\_klbpbc�� knhjfbjh\Zgguc�ba�

lj_o�ijh_dlh\�O��Y�b�Z��_keb�ih�i_j\hfm�\ZjbZglm�^hey�ijh_dlZ�O�khklZ\ey_l�������^hey�

ijh_dlZ�Y - 3�����^hey�ijh_dlZ�Z -�������ih�\lhjhfm�\ZjbZglm�ihjln_ev�bg\_klbpbc�bf__l�

ke_^mxsmx�kljmdlmjm��ijh_dl�O�-�������ijh_dl�Y -�������ijh_dl�Z - 50 %.

2. Hp_gbl_� agZq_gb_�dh\ZjbZpbb�ih�dZ`^hc�iZj_�bg\_klbpbhgguo�ijh_dlh\��XY,

XZ b�YZ.

3. KhklZ\vl_�ZgZeblbq_kdh_�aZdexq_gb_�

F_lh^bq_kdb_�mdZaZgby�d�j_r_gbx�aZ^Zgby���

LZ[ebpZ���

JZkq_l�h`b^Z_fhc�\_ebqbgu�ijh_dlghc�j_glZ[_evghklb

Khklhygb_

wdhghfbdb <_jhyl-ghklv�

<_ebqbgZ ijh_dlghc j_glZ[_evghklb� �

<a\_r_ggZy \_ebqbgZ ijh_dlghc j_glZ[_evghklb� �

dhwn� O Y Z X �]j��× ]j���

Y �]j��× ]j���

Z �]j��× ]j���

: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 0,1 28 10 25 2 0,6 20 30 18 3 0,3 15 20 32

H`b^Z_fZy \_ebqbgZ j_glZ[_evghklb

20

>ey�hij_^_e_gby�mjh\gy�jbkdZ�ihjln_ey�bg\_klbpbc��khklhys_]h�ba�[he__�^\mo�Zd�

lb\h\�� j_dhf_g^m_lky� jZkkqblu\Zlv� ihdZaZl_ev� klZg^Zjlgh]h� hldehg_gby� dhf[bgZpbb�

ijh_dlh\��σj��ih�ke_^mxs_c�nhjfme_�

σ3 L M L M

M

Q

L

Q

G G & 2 9= × ×==

∑∑��

.

GZ�hkgh\_�bkoh^guo�^Zgguo�lZ[e�����\�ki_pbZevghc�ZgZeblbq_kdhc�lZ[e�����j_dh�

f_g^m_lky�hkms_kl\eylv�jZkq_l�\_ebqbgu�\ZjbZpbb�ijh_dlghc�j_glZ[_evghklb�

LZ[ebpZ���

Hp_gdZ�\ZjbZpbb�j_glZ[_evghklb�ijh_dlh\�O��Y�b�Z

� i/i

r , % <_jhyl-ghklv� dhwn�

�U , % Hldehg_gb_ �]j�� - ]j���� �

D\Z^jZlgh_ hldehg_gb_ �]j�� × ]j���

<a\_r_ggh_ d\Z^�

jZlgh_ hldehg_gb_ �]j��× ]j���

: 1 2 3 4 5 6 �� Ijh_dl O

1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 <ZjbZpby �ih ]j��� klj� ��� � klj� ��� � klj� ����

�� Ijh_dl Y 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 <ZjbZpby �ih ]j��� klj� ��� � klj� ��� � klj� ����

�� Ijh_dl Z 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 <ZjbZpby �ih ]j��� klj� ��� � klj� ��� � klj� ����

Lj_[m_fu_�^ey�jZkq_lZ�klZg^Zjlgh]h�hldehg_gby�ihjln_ey�bg\_klbpbc�ihdZaZl_eb�

dh\ZjbZpbb�j_dhf_g^m_lky�hij_^_eylv�\�ki_pbZevghc�ZgZeblbq_kdhc�lZ[e�����

LZ[ebpZ���

JZkq_l�ihdZaZl_ey�dh\ZjbZpbb�ijh_dlh\�XY, XZ b�YZ

� i/i

J_glZ[_evghklv ijh_dlZ� �

<_jhyl- ghklv�

Hldehg_gb_� � Ijhba\_^_gb_ hldehg_gbc

<a\_r_ggZy \_ebqbgZ

r r dhwn� ]j�� -

�U

]j�� -

�U

�]j��× ]j���� � �]j��× ]j���� �

: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 �� Ijh_dlu O b Y

1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 Dh\ZjbZpby ijh_dlh\ X b Y �ih ]j��� klj���� � klj���� � klj����� HdhgqZgb_�lZ[e����

21

: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 �� Ijh_dlu O b Z

2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 Dh\ZjbZpby ijh_dlh\ X b Z �ih ]j��� klj�2�� � klj�2�� � klj�2.3)

3. Ijh_dlu Y b Z 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 Dh\ZjbZpby ijh_dlh\ Y b Z �ih ]j��� klj���� � klj���� � klj�����

I_j_^�l_f�dZd�jZkkqblZlv�klZg^Zjlgh_�hldehg_gb_�ihjln_ey�bg\_klbpbc��j_dhf_g�

^m_lky�aZihegblv�fZljbpm�agZq_gbc�\ZjbZpbb�b�dh\ZjbZpbb��lZ[e������

LZ[ebpZ���

<ZjbZpbb�b�dh\ZjbZpbb�j_glZ[_evghklb�ijh_dlh\�O��Y, Z

j i

Ijh_dl O

Ijh_dl Y

Ijh_dl Z

Ijh_dl X σO

� = COVXY = COVXZ =

Ijh_dl Y COVXY = σ<

� = COVYZ =

Ijh_dl Z COVXZ = COVYZ = σ=

� =

GZ� aZdexqbl_evghf� wlZi_� ZgZebaZ� j_dhf_g^m_lky� ^ey� dZ`^hc� dhf[bgZpbb� bg\_�

klbpbhgguo� ijh_dlh\� jZkkqblZlv� dhwnnbpb_gl� \ZjbZpbb�� hij_^_ey_fuc� dZd� hlghr_gb_�

klZg^Zjlgh]h�hldehg_gby�d�h`b^Z_fhc�j_glZ[_evghklb�ihjln_ey�bg\_klbpbc��GZ�hkgh\Z�

gbb�kjZ\gbl_evgh]h�ZgZebaZ�^Zggh]h�ihdZaZl_ey��bkqbke_ggh]h�ih�^\mf�\ZjbZglZf�dhf[b�

gZpbb�dZiblZeh\eh`_gbc��g_h[oh^bfh�\u[jZlv�gZb[he__�[_ahiZkguc�ihjln_ev�bg\_klb�

pbc�

AZ^Zgb_���

GZ�hkgh\Zgbb�^Zgguo�lZ[e����

1. JZkkqblZcl_�ihdZaZl_eb�dh\ZjbZpbb�b�dhwnnbpb_glZ�dhjj_eypbb�ihjln_ey�bg�

\_klbpbc��knhjfbjh\Zggh]h�ba�^\mo�ijh_dlh\�:�b�<�

2. Hij_^_ebl_� dhwnnbpb_gl� \ZjbZpbb� ih� dZ`^hfm� ijh_dlm�� \oh^ys_fm� \� khklZ\�

ihjln_ey�bg\_klbpbc��b�^Zcl_�hp_gdm� kl_i_gb�g_hij_^_e_gghklb�ihemq_gby�h`b^Z_fuo�

j_amevlZlh\��

3. Hij_^_ebl_�hilbfZevgmx�kljmdlmjm�ihjln_ey�bg\_klbpbc�b�wnn_dlb\guc�kib�

khd�dhf[bgZpbb�^\mo�Zdlb\h\��_keb�ba\_klgh��qlh�ijh_dlu�fh]ml�[ulv�^_ebfufb��Z�bo�

22

nbgZgkh\u_� j_amevlZlu�baf_gyxlky�ijhihjpbhgZevgh�^heb�ijh_dlZ� \� khklZ\_�ihjln_ey�

bg\_klbpbc�

4. KhklZ\vl_�ibkvf_ggh_�ZgZeblbq_kdh_�aZdexq_gb_�

LZ[ebpZ���

Hp_gdZ�h`b^Z_fuo�^_g_`guo�ihlhdh\�ih�ijh_dlZf�:�b�<

Khklhygb_

wdhghfbdb <_jhylghklv�

dhwn� Ijh]ghabjm_fu_ ^_g_`gu_

ihlhdb �KF�� feg j� <a\_r_ggZy \_ebqbgZ KF,

feg j� Ijh_dl : Ijh_dl < Ijh_dl :

�]j�� × ]j��� Ijh_dl <

�]j�� × ]j��� : 1 2 3 4 5

KblmZpby � 0,05 8,5 3,9 KblmZpby � 0,5 5,6 6,7 KblmZpby � 0,3 4,8 8,2 KblmZpby � 0,15 2,0 12,6

H`b^Z_fZy \_ebqbgZ ^_g_`gh]h ihlhdZ �?CF)

F_lh^bq_kdb_�mdZaZgby�d�j_r_gbx�aZ^Zgby���

Dhwnnbpb_gl�dhjj_eypbb�^_g_`guo�ihlhdh\�^\mo�ijh_dlh\�j_dhf_g^m_lky�jZkkqb�

lu\Zlv�ih�ke_^mxs_c�nhjfme_�

U& 2 9

$%

$%

$ %

=×σ σ .

>hey�ijh_dlZ�:�\�ihjln_e_�:<�k�hilbfZevgufb�oZjZdl_jbklbdZfb��fbgbfZevguf�

mjh\g_f�jbkdZ�b�fZdkbfZevghc�j_glZ[_evghklvx���dA��jZkkqblu\Z_lky�ih�nhjfme_

G&29

&29$

% $%

$ % $%

=−

+ − ×σ

σ σ

� � �.

JZkq_l�bkdhfuo�ihdZaZl_e_c�\ZjbZpbb��klZg^Zjlgh]h�hldehg_gby�b�dh\ZjbZpbb�j_�

dhf_g^m_lky�ijh\h^blv�\�ki_pbZevguo�ZgZeblbq_kdbo�lZ[ebpZo��ZgZeh]bqguo�lZ[e�����b�

lZ[e�����

MKEH<GU?��H;HAG:Q?GBY�

NPV - ihdZaZl_ev�qbklhc�l_dms_c�klhbfhklb�ijh_dlguo�^_g_`guo�ihlhdh\��luk��j��

Q -�h[t_f�ijh^Z`�\�gZlmjZevguo�_^bgbpZo�baf_j_gby��N - h[t_f�ijh^Z`��luk��j��Pr -�p_gZ�

_^bgbpu�ijh^mdpbb��jZ[hl��mkem]���luk��j��S -�ihegu_�]h^h\u_�ba^_j`db�gZ�ijhba\h^kl\h�

b�j_ZebaZpbx�ijh^mdpbb��luk��j��Cv - i_j_f_ggu_�ba^_j`db�gZ�_^bgbpm�ijh^mdpbb��luk��j��

KF -�]h^h\u_�ihklhyggu_�aZljZlu��luk��j��:�-�]h^h\hc�h[t_f�ZfhjlbaZpbb�hkgh\guo�nhg�

^h\��luk��j��I 0 -�gZqZevgu_�bg\_klbpbhggu_�aZljZlu��luk��j��n -�kjhd�j_ZebaZpbb�ijh_dlZ��

e_l�� �beb� dhebq_kl\h� ijh_dlh\� \� ihjln_e_� bg\_klbpbc��rl���� r -� ijh_dlgZy� ^bkdhglgZy�

23

klZ\dZ��dhwn��Z t - dhwnnbpb_gl�^hklh\_jghklb��hij_^_e_gghklb��ijh_dlguo�^_g_`guo�ih�

lhdh\�\�t -i_jbh^��dhwn��Z�0 - dhwnnbpb_gl�^hklh\_jghklb��hij_^_e_gghklb��gZqZevguo�bg�

\_klbpbhgguo�aZljZl�\�i_jbh^�\j_f_gb�t���jZ\guc����dhwn� tax - mjh\_gv�gZeh]hh[eh`_gby�

b�ijhqbo�batylbc��rljZnh\��i_g_c�b�ij���ba�ijb[ueb�ijh_dlZ��dhwn� CFt - ihke_gZeh]h\uc�

hi_jZpbhgguc�^_g_`guc�ihlhd�bg\_klbpbhggh]h�ijh_dlZ�\�t - i_jbh^_��luk��j��Sd - ihke_�

gZeh]h\uc�ebd\b^Zpbhgguc�^_g_`guc�ihlhd�bg\_klbpbhggh]h�ijh_dlZ��luk��j��PVIF r, n -

nZdlhj�l_dms_c�klhbfhklb�ijh_dlguo�^_g_`guo�ihlhdh\��dhwn����������PVIFA r,n - nZdlhj�

l_dms_c�klhbfhklb�Zggmbl_lZ��dhwn��Fl - nbgZgkh\uc�juqZ]��dhwn��AD -�aZ_fguc�dZiblZe��

luk��j��KD� -�kh[kl\_gguc�dZiblZe��luk��j��σ 2t - \ZjbZpby�ijh_dlgh]h�^_g_`gh]h�ihlhdZ�

�beb�j_glZ[_evghklb��\�t -�i_jbh^_��σ t - klZg^Zjlgh_�hldehg_gb_�ijh_dlguo�^_g_`guo�ih�

lhdh\� �beb� j_glZ[_evghklb�� \� t -� i_jbh^_��CVNPV -� dhwnnbpb_gl� \ZjbZpbb�NPV�� dhwn��

SVNPV -�ihem\ZjbZpby�NPV. σ SV - ihemklZg^Zjlgh_�hldehg_gb_��� -�lhqdb�ijbgylby�j_�

r_gbc�gZ�ko_f_�©^_j_\h�j_r_gbcª��{ -�\_jhylghklb�kh[ulbc�gZ�ko_f_�©^_j_\h�j_r_gbcª��

ENPV -�h`b^Z_fZy�\_ebqbgZ�ihdZaZl_ey�NPV��luk��j��Pi - \_jhylghklv�i- ]h�kh[ulby��dhwn��

K:JF -�fh^_ev�hp_gdb�dZiblZevguo�Zdlb\h\��aZ\bkbfhklv�jbkdZ�b�j_glZ[_evghklb���:JL

-�fh^_ev�nbgZgkh\h]h�Zj[bljZ`Z��aZ\bkbfhklv�jbkdZ�b�j_glZ[_evghklb���β (beta) - qm\kl�

\bl_evghklv�h[h[sZxsbo�ihdZaZl_e_c�wnn_dlb\ghklb�ijhba\h^kl\_ggh-nbgZgkh\hc�^_y�

l_evghklb�dhfiZgbb� �beb�^hoh^ghklb�__�h[udgh\_gguo�Zdpbc��d�\ha^_ckl\bx�fZdjhwdh�

ghfbq_kdbo� nZdlhjh\� kbkl_fZlbq_kdh]h� jbkdZ�� dhwn�� rm - kj_^g_hljZke_\Zy� �jughqgZy��

j_glZ[_evghklv���� r f - [_ajbkdh\Zy�klZ\dZ�j_glZ[_evghklb�����dn -�klZ\dZ�j_nbgZgkbjh�

\Zgby��mklZgZ\eb\Z_fZy�P;�JN�����(rm - rf) - kj_^g_jughqgZy�jbkdh\Zy�ij_fby��ih�kbkl_�

fZlbq_kdhfm�jbkdm�������dn - rf) -�kj_^g_jughqgZy�jbkdh\Zy�ij_fby��ih�nbgZgkh\hfm�jbk�

dm������ �UL - h`b^Z_fZy�\_ebqbgZ�j_glZ[_evghklb�i-�]h�ijh_dlZ����� �U S -�h`b^Z_fZy�\_eb�

qbgZ�j_glZ[_evghklb�ihjln_ey�bg\_klbpbc�����di - ^hey�i- ]h�ijh_dlZ�\�ihjln_e_�bg\_klb�

pbc��dhwn��COV:< -�dh\ZjbZpby�bg\_klbpbhgguo�ijh_dlh\�:�b�<� σj -�klZg^Zjlgh_�hldeh�

g_gb_�ihjln_ey�bg\_klbpbc��r AB -�dhwnnbpb_gl�dhjj_eypbb�ijh_dlh\�:�b�<�

KIBKHD��J?DHF?G>M?FHC��EBL?J:LMJU

1. ;ZdZgh\�F�B���R_j_f_l�:�>��L_hjby�wdhghfbq_kdh]h�ZgZebaZ��-�F���

NbgZgku�b�klZlbklbdZ�������

2. ;_j_gk�<���OZ\jZg_d�I�F��Jmdh\h^kl\h� ih� hp_gd_� wnn_dlb\ghklb�

bg\_klbpbc��I_j��k�Zg]e��i_j_jZ[��b�^hi��ba^��-�F���:HAL�©Bgl_jwdki_jlª��©BGNJ:�-�Fª��

1995.

24

3. ;bjfZg�=���Rfb^l�K��Wdhghfbq_kdbc�ZgZeba�bg\_klbpbhgguo�ijh_d�

lh\�/�I_j��k�Zg]e��ih^�j_^��E�I��;_euo��-�F���;Zgdb�b�[bj`b��XGBLB�������

4. ;jhf\bq�F��:gZeba�wdhghfbq_kdhc�wnn_dlb\ghklb�dZiblZeh\eh`_gbc��I_j��

k�Zg]e��-�F���BGNJ:�-�F�������

5. <Zg�Ohjg�>`�D��Hkgh\u�mijZ\e_gby�nbgZgkZfb��I_j��k�Zg]e��]e��j_^��k_�

jbb�Y�<��Khdheh\��-�F���BGNJ:�-�F�������

6. ?g^h\bpdbc�>�:��:gZeba�b�hp_gdZ�wnn_dlb\ghklb�bg\_klbpbhgghc�iheb�

lbdb�dhff_jq_kdbo�hj]ZgbaZpbc��F_lh^heh]by�b�f_lh^bdZ��-�<hjhg_`��Ba^-\h�<=M�������

7. Ebikbp�<�G���Dhkkh\�<�<��Bg\_klbpbhgguc�ijh_dl��f_lh^u�ih^]h�

lh\db�b�ZgZebaZ��-�F���;?D�������

8. F_lh^bq_kdb_� j_dhf_g^Zpbb� ih� hp_gd_� wnn_dlb\ghklb� bg\_klbpbhgguo�

ijh_dlh\�b�bo�hl[hjm�^ey�nbgZgkbjh\Zgby��-�F���Bgl_jwdki_jl�������

9. NbgZgkh\uc� f_g_^`f_gl�� l_hjby� b� ijZdlbdZ�� Mq_[gbd� /� Ih^� j_^�� ?�K��

Klhygh\hc��-�F���I_jki_dlb\Z��- 1998.

10. RZji�M���:e_dkZg^_j�=���;_ceb�>`��Bg\_klbpbb��-�F���BGNJ:�-�F�������

11. Brigham E.F., Gapenski L.C. Financial Management (Theory and

Practice). 7th ed. - New York: The Dryden Press, 1994.

12. Seitz N.E. Capital Budgeting and Long-Term Financing Decisions. - San Fran-

cisco: The Dryden Press, 1990.

13. Shapiro A.C. Modern Corporate Finance. - New York: Macmillan Publishing

Company, 1991.

?g^h\bpdbc�>fbljbc�:e_dkZg^jh\bq

K;HJGBD�A:>:GBC�B�F?LH>BQ?KDBO�J?DHF?G>:PBC IH�:G:EBAM�BG<?KLBPBHGGH=H�JBKD:

J_^Zdlhj�A�?��Dmag_ph\Z Dhfivxl_jgZy�\_jkldZ��>�:��?g^h\bpdh]h

AZdZa������������hl���������������������]��LbjZ`�����wda�

<hjhg_`kdbc�]hkm^Zjkl\_gguc�mgb\_jkbl_l ��������<hjhg_`��Mgb\_jkbl_lkdZy�ie����

Hli_qZlZgh�gZ�fgh`bl_evghc�l_ogbd_

Wdhghfbq_kdh]h�nZdmevl_lZ�<=M