1. Industrial Internet: Cutting Costs for EnergyProducers by 1
Cent per Kilowatt HourOctober 31, 2014
2. What are the ROI Business Challenges?1. What are the
fleet-wide gearbox failure assessments(As-Is)? Gearbox replacement
planning, fleet/site valuations Top worst performers (We see what
you can not see)2. What are the individual gearbox failure risk
profile and remaininguseful life (RUL)? Component and systems
failure profile per asset3. How to make decisions based on ROI
using individual asset lifeextension planning and trade-off studies
Financial impact tradeoffs OEM tradeoffs Remanufacturing
optionsIndustrial Internet: Cutting Costs for Energy Producers by 1
cent per kW hr.October 31, 2014
3. Business ProblemFinancial Data(Asset Management)Industrial
Internet: Cutting Costs for Energy Producers by 1 cent per kW
hr.October 31, 2014ROI?Lifing Data(Engineering)Service
andMaintenanceData(Operations)
4. Business ProblemHow do you bring these views together so
that the ROI is credible?Financial DataService
andMaintenanceDataLifing DataIndustrial Internet: Cutting Costs for
Energy Producers by 1 cent per kW hr.October 31, 2014ROI
5. Objective of an Integrated ROI Model Scenario planning based
on financial data,operational costs and lifing impact data Single
and combination service options Derate, oil, controls, component
replacement, OEM options Proactive vs. Reactive Plan high cost
gearbox change-outs efficiently Financial credibilityIndustrial
Internet: Cutting Costs for Energy Producers by 1 cent per kW
hr.October 31, 2014
6. Assumptions Financial model is scalable for different
assettypes and operational use cases Capable of adding new
maintenance options andsites/assets Integrated with gearbox
performance andlifing data Changes in RUL cause changes in
ROIIndustrial Internet: Cutting Costs for Energy Producers by 1
cent per kW hr.October 31, 2014
7. Life Extension Options Affecting ROIDe-rating Options
Lubrication OptionsComponentReplacementUptowerControl UpgradesPPM
ServicingScheduleOptimizationEnhancedCBM/PHMCapabilitiesIndustrial
Internet: Cutting Costs for Energy Producers by 1 cent per kW
hr.October 31, 2014Options Capable Through Prognostics
8. Asset-Level ROI ModelInput Variables Calculate ROI ROI
Trade-Offs1) Cost of refurbished gearbox2) Cost of new gearbox3)
Gearbox change out grouping4) Investment hurdle rate5) Revenue per
MWh by site(with tax credits)6) Contribution margin7) Cost of oil
change alternatives8) Actual output from wind tablesby turbine (no
derate)9) Derate tables by turbine10) Costs of other actions11)
Month that action is taken12) RUL extension by turbine fromDigital
Clone LiveIndustrial Internet: Cutting Costs for Energy Producers
by 1 cent per kW hr.October 31, 2014 Select different
life-extensionactions Run predictive models To generate
RULextensionWhat action(s) arebest?
9. Industrial Internet: Cutting Costs for Energy Producers by 1
cent per kW hr.October 31, 2014Sentient Science Assumptions for
Single Turbine RUL Extension DecisionsItems in yellow are user
inputsCapital MetricsCost of refurbished gearbox replacement
$440,000Investor hurdle rate or firm cost of capital 15%Monthly
hurdle rate or cost of capital 1.250000%Gearbox Change Out Grouping
CostsCost of changing out a single gearbox $727,800Number of
gearboxes to be grouped for change out 5Total gearbox and change
out cost per turbine $668,600Cost of RUL Extension AlternativesOil
Change Alternatives1 Clean existing oil $5,0002 Flush existing oil
$7,5003 Change oil supplier $10,000Derate Alternatives (Goal
Setting)4 Maximum financial benefit derate See Derate5 Service
target date derate* TablesWind Turbine MWh Price and Contribution
Margin AssumptionsNet revenue per MWh (specific rate for a site)
$76.92Contribution margin percentage 55%
10. ROI Model Single Turbine AssetSentient Science RUL
Extension Alternatives for Wind Turbine #7 as of: 1/26/2014Cells in
green are inputs from Sentient Science Digital Clone Live.Two
interactive user assumptions are required and are shown in
yellow.All other user assumptions are taken from the spreadsheet in
the Assumptions tab.Industrial Internet: Cutting Costs for Energy
Producers by 1 cent per kW hr.October 31, 2014RUL ExtensionAs Is
Turbine Change Start Amount (in months) from IncrementalRUL Action
Gearbox Month Month of Derate Sentient Science RUL ExtensionRUL
Extension Alternative** (in months) Required Now? of Action Number
(in MW) Digital Clone Live (in months)Wind Turbine #7 12.00 Yes
NoGoal SettingMaximum financial benefit derate May 5 2,000 24.00
12.00Service target date derate* Jan 1 2,000 16.00 4.00Oil Change
AlternativesClean existing oil March 3 N/A 14.00 2.00Flush existing
oil March 3 N/A 18.00 6.00Change oil supplier March 3 N/A 24.00
12.00
11. ROI Model Single Turbine AssetSentient Science RUL
Extension Alternatives for Wind Turbine #7 as of: 1/26/2014Cells in
green are inputs from Sentient Science Digital Clone Live.Two
interactive user assumptions are required and are shown in
yellow.All other user assumptions are taken from the spreadsheet in
the Assumptions tab.Incremental Cost of ActionIndustrial Internet:
Cutting Costs for Energy Producers by 1 cent per kW hr.October 31,
2014Use this ROIIncremental Postponed Net FV Benefit ROI ActionMW
Hours Cost of Gearbox NPV of Net Cost from (Net Financial
SelectedRUL Extension Alternative** Gained Replacement Oil Actions
Lost Margin Postponed RUL Extension Gain) by UserWind Turbine
#7Goal SettingMaximum financial benefit derate 5,392 $668,600 N/A
$15,398 $653,202 $758,207 $105,005Service target date derate* 1,973
$668,600 N/A $7,588 $661,012 $694,687 $33,675Oil Change
AlternativesClean existing oil 1,074 $668,600 $5,000 N/A $663,600
$680,294 $16,694Flush existing oil 2,965 $668,600 $7,500 N/A
$661,100 $712,258 $51,158Change oil supplier 5,392 $668,600 $10,000
N/A $658,600 $764,473 $105,873 X
12. ROI Decision Making on an Asset-By-Asset BasisYes//NoLife
Extension Options RULIndustrial Internet: Cutting Costs for Energy
Producers by 1 cent per kW hr.October 31, 2014ExtensionNet
CostPostponedNet FV RULRULExtensionROI (NetFinancialGain)X Max ROI
Derate 24 months $412,056 $555,185 +$115,185Target Date Derate 6
months $433,014 $466,522 +$26,522Clean Existing Oil 12 months
$435,000 $504,928 +$64,928Flush, Same Oil 18 months $432,500
$549,875 +$100,875X Flush, New Oil Supplier 24 months $430,000
$579,361 +$139,361
13. Site-Level ROI ModelInput Variables1) Seasonal impact
ondowntime high/low windseason2) Crane mobilization cost3) Gearbox
replacementgrouping4) Gained revenue fromreduction in downtime5)
Gearbox supply chainmanagementIndustrial Internet: Cutting Costs
for Energy Producers by 1 cent per kW hr.October 31, 2014Calculate
ROI Site optimization needs Model optimizationROI Trade-OffsWhat
action(s) arebest?
14. Bearing Predictions for Clipper GearboxA good prognostics
program allows you to quantifywhat-if scenarios to extend
RUL.Quantify Impact of:Lubrication change, auto-lubrication
systems, partial de-rating, etc.Industrial Internet: Cutting Costs
for Energy Producers by 1 cent per kW hr.October 31, 2014
15. DigitalCloneTM LiveAsset location and riskIndustrial
Internet: Cutting Costs for Energy Producers by 1 cent per kW
hr.October 31, 2014Most risk to least riskDrilldown to
componentlevel
16. DigitalCloneTM LiveIndustrial Internet: Cutting Costs for
Energy Producers by 1 cent per kW hr.October 31, 2014Operation and
MaintenanceOptions System and Component LevelTrade Off
ROIResults
17. Remanufacturing Impact on ROIOctober 31, 2014B - Failure
initiatesC - Failure can be confidentlypredicted - PROGNOSISA Asset
enters serviceTimeConditionD - functional failureoccursGap between
current diagnostic stateD and future prognostic state C.18New
Gearbox Parts Prognostics: Faulted GearboxContact
SurfaceSub-surfaceIndustrial Internet: Cutting Costs for Energy
Producers by 1 cent per kW hr.
18. Next Generation ROIHow do we know when and how to optimize
remanufacturing?Financial DataService
andMaintenanceDataRemanufacturingLifing DataIndustrial Internet:
Cutting Costs for Energy Producers by 1 cent per kW hr.October 31,
2014ROI
19. Industrial Internet: Cutting Costs for EnergyProducers by 1
Cent per Kilowatt HourOctober 31, 2014
