CSLI Fall 2013 SurveyAlmost 7:30 Democratic Club

Nov. 1, 2013

Presentation by Dan Nataf, Ph.D.

Director, Center for the Study of Local Issueswww2.aacc.edu/csli

Center for the Study of Local Issues:Semi-annual survey

Conducted each March and October Involves 70+/- students as telephone

interviewers Contents:

Benchmark questions on the economy, most important problem, right/wrong direction, and demographics

Variable questions on current policy choices and major events

Plan – major topics

Trends Right/wrong direction Most important problem facing residents Perceptions of the economy Economic circumstances

Survey specific questions Sequestration and federal govt. shutdown County infrastructure priorities County performance dealing with major problems Mental health Presidential and Congressional job approval Trust in parties Party demographics

County: Right or Wrong Direction? Spring ‘99 to Fall ‘13

Sp '99

Fa '99

Sp '00

Fa '00

Sp '01

Fa '01

Sp '02

Fa '02

Sp '03

Fa '03

Sp '04

Fa '04

Sp '05

Fa '05

Sp '06

Fa '06

Sp '07

Fa '07

Sp '08

Fa '08

Sp '09

Fa '09

Sp '10

Fa '10

Sp '11

Fa '11

Sp '12

Fa '12

Sp '13

Fa '13

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

5754

5855

6266

606162

51

585853

57555152515052

475252

495047

43

504950

23

2725 24 23

15

26

21

25

3431

24

2927 26

2927

33 32 3128 27 28 28 28

32

41

3633

35

20 1917

20

15

19

14

18

1315

12

19 1816

1820 21

16 17 17

25

21 2023 22 22

1614

1816

Right Wrong Unsure

Right/Wrong Direction –County, State, Nation, Respondent

Levels Dem. Rep. Unaffiliated

  Sp ‘13 Fa ‘13 Sp ‘13 Fa ‘13 Sp ‘13 Fa ‘13

County 58 55 38 43 50 52

State 54 47 12 20 37 34

Nation 38 15 8 3 27 9

Fall '12 Spring '13 Fall '130

10

20

30

40

50

60

36

24

10

36 35 35

50 49 50

Nation State County

Most Important Problem: Fall 2007 to Fall 2013

Fall '07 Spring '08 Fall '08 Spring '09 Fall '09 Spring '10 Fall '10 Spring '11 Fall '11 Spring '12 Fall '12 Spring '13 Fall '130

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

12 1210

87

89

10

57

8 86

10

64

68

6 6 68

4

75

9

17 16

1210

12 1113

119

17 1719 19

3 42 1 2

4 3 3 4

9 911

17

8

23

38

48

3336 36 35

48

3027

23

16

1

Education Crime / drugs Taxes – too high Govt. inefficient, corrupt Economy

Economy

Taxes

Govt. Waste/Ethics

Crime

Education

F '06

S '07

F '07

S '08

F'08 S '09

F '09

S '10

F '10

S '11

F '11

S '12

F '12

S '13

F '13

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

71 71 69

5549 46 48

44 4549 48 51 48 49

53

27 30 31 32 35 3338

33 30

40

511 11 11 11 9

13 1612 14

County State Federal

Economic Conditions: (% excellent+good)County/Maryland/USA

Cost of living indicators

S '08 F '08 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '11 F '11 S '12 F '12 S '13 F 130

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

21

11 12 1315

10

1411

15

912

14

26

35 34

40

32

21

17

2124

41

30

36

3027

24

61

5053

4244 43

46

39 39

32 3129

58 59 59

6360

63

58

63 63 62

66

5659

55 55 56 56

63

59

66

59 59 60

Unable to find affordable housingReceived an income increaseHard to afford the cost of transportationHard to afford the cost of utilities such as electricity or gasTaxes are too high in relation to government services providedWages or salaries are not rising as fast as the cost of living

Find housing

Transportation cost Income rise

Utilities cost

Taxes too high

Wages too low

Other economic indicators

S '08 F '08 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '11 F '11 S '12 F '12 S '13 F '130

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

64

68 7 7

9 8 8

47 7

1416

1114

16

11

15

24 24

1921 20 21

1714

1917

35

30 29

33 3234 35

32 32

27

3229

71

75

70

56

60

52

60

44

38

32 32

51

46 4744

47

51

45

38

42

38

Facing the possibility of house foreclosure or lossFound a new or better job recentlyFacing the possibility of unemploymentHealth care insurance is unavailable, too expensive or inadequateSignificant losses in your stock or retirement accountsDelay in making a major purchase such as a home or car

Stock losses

Delay

Health insurance

Unemployment

Home loss New job

Health Care Inadequate, Applies 29%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 450

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Series1; 2829

44

24

15 16

39

33

28

41

2725

18

27

35

44

53

77

32

39

23

1922

6

60

46

41

31

27

17

39

21

2527

46

3133

2825

35

2523

Economic Conditions over the next 12 Months Fall 2013 Bette

rSame Worse Unsure/

NATotal

Economic growth 26 44 25 5 100

Unemployment 23 33 40 5 100

Inflation 6 31 58 5 101

Your personal financial situation

21 56 18 5 101

Growth Unemployment Inflation Personal Sit.

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

-3-9

-43

-2

22

9

-46

6

2622

-38

147

-13

-43

71

-17

-52

3

Fall '11 Spring '12 Fall '12 Spring '13 Fall '13

Sequestration and Shutdown

Overa

llDem Rep

Unaffi

liate

d

Conse

rvat

ive

Mod

erat

e

Libe

rals

464850525456586062

57

60

57

5351

60

54

% Affected

Sequestration and Shutdown

Furlo

ugh

Inco

me

loss

Park

s/va

catio

ns

Serv

ice

redu

ctio

n

Busine

ss lo

sses

Laid

off

0

10

20

30

40

50 44

10 7 7 4 4

How impacted…

County Infrastructure Priorities: High, Medium, Low  Hig

hMediu

mLow Unsure/

NARebuilding or replacing the schools in your community 50 27 20 3Rebuilding or replacing the roads servicing your community 43 37 19 1Providing additional public transportation options to your community

36 28 31 4

Rebuilding or replacing police or fire stations servicing your community

31 35 28 6

Rebuilding or improving facilities at Anne Arundel Community College

25 39 24 12

Providing additional recreational access to the Chesapeake Bay

23 29 41 7

Rebuilding or replacing the police training academy 18 35 35 12Rebuilding or replacing the current computer and email system used by the county

16 26 37 21

Rebuilding or replacing your local library 15 33 48 4Rebuilding or replacing public parks used by your community 13 39 46 2

Rebuild

ing o

r repla

cing ...

Rebuild

ing o

r repla

cing ...

Pro

vid

ing a

dditio

nal p

ub...

Rebuild

ing o

r repla

cing ...

Rebuild

ing o

r impro

vin

g...

Pro

vid

ing a

dditio

nal re

c...

Rebuild

ing o

r repla

cing ...

Rebuild

ing o

r repla

cing...

Rebuild

ing o

r repla

cing y

...

Rebuild

ing o

r repla

cing...-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

30

24

5 3 1

-18

-17

-21

-33 -33

County Problems – Better, Same, Worse over Last YearProblem Gotten

betterStayed about

the sameGotten worse

Unsure/NA

Improving the academic performance of our children 28 35 26 11Improving the environment 21 45 27 7Improving the overall quality of life in our County 19 60 17 3Improving ethics in government 17 27 49 8Controlling crime 16 54 24 7Planning growth and development 15 38 35 12Improving the efficiency of local government 15 40 36 9Improving the local economy 13 55 27 6Reducing poverty and homelessness 7 40 37 16Reducing traffic congestion 7 29 61 3Keeping taxes low 5 37 54 4Average 15 42 36 8

Impro

vin

g th

e a

cadem

ic perfo

rmance

of...

Impro

vin

g th

e e

nviro

nm

ent

Impro

vin

g th

e o

vera

ll quality

of life

in...

Impro

vin

g e

thics in

govern

ment

Contro

lling crim

e

Pla

nnin

g g

row

th a

nd d

evelo

pm

ent

Impro

vin

g th

e e

fficie

ncy

of lo

cal g

ove...

Impro

vin

g th

e lo

cal e

conom

y

Reducin

g p

overty

and h

om

ele

ssness

Reducin

g tra

ffic co

ngestio

n

Keepin

g ta

xes lo

w

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

2

-6

2

-32

-8

-20

-21

-14

-30

-54-49

Mental Health Services16% with experience (22% students)

Description Agree Stds

Agree

Disagree

No knowledg

e

No answer

Services are accessible and easily available

34 23 21 49 7

Services are affordable 20 21 19 54 7Services are high quality 24 19 16 58 7Providers are compassionate

20 29 6 58 6

Job Approval: Congress

Overa

llDem Rep

Unaffi

liate

d

Conse

rvat

ive

Mod

erat

e

Libe

rals

0

2

4

6

8

10

6

4

9

5

8

5 5

% approving

Presidential job approvalFall 2007 to Fall 2013

Fall '07 Spring '08

Fall '08 Spring '09

Fall '09 Spring '10

Fall '10 Spring '11

Fall '11 Spring '12

Fall '12 Spring '13

Fall '130

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

35

2824

53

47 4742

47

3742 44 44

40

32 3025

61

54

4743

47

4045

50 49

43

CSLI Gallup

Presidential Job Approval by Party Registration

Fall 2009 to Fall 2013

F '09 S '10 F '10 S '11 F '11 S '12 F '12 S '13 F '130

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

72 70

61

7067

7376 75

71

17

24 2418

712 11 9 9

54 53

33

57

47

34 34

46

37

Democrats Republicans Unaffiliated

Trust in Political PartiesSpring 2008-Fall 2013

Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

42

37

3334

37 37

34

31

37 37 37

34

3028

31

37

34

38

3230

34

38

32

23

20

27

31

21 21

17

29

32

21

17

26

37

Democrats Republicans Neither

Trust in Parties by Ideology and Party Registration

Cons Moderate Liberal Dem Rep Unaffil.0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

7

40

6965

6

22

51

14

8 8

53

9

34

42

23 25

37

59

Party Demographics: Ideology

Dem Rep Unaffil.0

10

20

30

40

50

60

13

50

26

57

40

55

30

711

Conservative Moderate Liberal

Party Demographics: Race

Dem Rep Unaffil.0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

66

91

80

20

189

5 6

White Black Other

Party Demographics: Income

0-50K 50-75K 75-100k 100-150k 150-250k >250k0

5

10

15

20

25

30

21

17

2423

12

3

15

21

23

19

14

8

17

22

12

26

21

3

Dem Rep Unaffil.

Party Demographics: Gender

Dem Rep Unaffil.0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

42

51 51

58

48 49

Male Female

Party Demographics: Education

Less than HS Diploma

HS Diploma Some college 2 yr degree 4 yr degree Post graduate work

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

3

8

22

12

24

28

0

8

21

16

26 27

0

1715

7

21

36

Dem Rep Unaffil.

Party Demographics: Employment

Ret. Not w

orking

Ret. W

orking

Self-e

mployed

FT priv

ate se

ctor

FT Govt.

not defe

nse

FT Defe

nse rel

ated

Nonprofit

Part time

Studen

t

Unemploye

d seek

ing work

Unemploye

d not see

king w

ork0

5

10

15

20

25

30

27

12

6

23

14

34 4

2

4

2

25

11

6

25

14

6

32 2

43

21

109

21

17

11

0

4 43

1

Dem Rep Unaffil.

Party Demographics: Religion

None Non-practicing Evangelical Catholic Jewish Protestant Other0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

87

13

25

4

22

17

8

10

15

38

0

22

6

18

11

19

23

2

16

9

Dem Rep Unaffil.

Democrats – Demographics, 40%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 450

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Series1; 35

4441

38

3033

37 36

43

74

35

39 40

23

46

39

47 48

41 40

51

44

38

32

83

33

47

4139 40

38 39 3941

57

42

18

47

68