12
Chapter 3.7 Climate Change Impacts in Japan and Southeast Asia:Implications for Crop Adaptation Sivapuram V.R.K. Prabhakar Introduction Southeast Asia region comprises a group of mainland and island countries with diverse geophysical and socioeconomic characteristics. Southeast Asia includes Brunei, Cambodia, East Timor, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, The Union of Myanmar, and Vietnam. Most of the Southeast Asian countries are low-income and low-middle income economies with an ex- ception of Singapore with high-income economy and Malaysia with upper-middle-income econ- omy (The World Bank 2010). In addition to these countries, this paper also touches upon climate change impacts in Japan, which could provide needed capacity in mitigation of some of the im- pacts observed in the Southeast Asian countries. Agriculture in value added of national gross do- mestic product (GDP) in this region accounts to about 17.3%. However, there is a variation with figures ranging between 41.8% (Lao PDR) and 0.1% (Singapore) (Fig. 3.7.1). While the share of agriculture in national GDPs may appear less significant, agriculture undoubtedly plays an important role beyond its share in the national GDP in these countries. Agriculture employs about 50.4% of total pop- ulation in these countries (FAO 2009c), with a range between less than 1% in Singapore and 80% in East Timor, and is backbone for realiz- ing food security and providing needed inputs to the industry. Southeast Asian countries differ in the agricultural productivity. In terms of devel- opmental indicators, Southeast Asia is the third poorest region in the world after sub-Saharan Africa and southern Asia and ranks poorly in terms of labor productivity, access to food, ma- ternal health, and forestation (United Nations 2009). Hence, any external stress can mean sig- nificant impact on sustainable development of many Southeast Asian countries. Rice is the principal cereal crop cultivated in the Southeast Asia grown in about 46.7 Mha (amounting to 82% of total area under cereal cultivation in the region) with a productivity of 4.04 tha 1 (FAO 2009a) and provides about 60% of total calories, 1195 kcal/capita/day, to mil- lions of people in Southeast Asia (FAO 2009b). Other principal crops grown in the region are maize, sorghum, wheat, barley, and rye. The re- gion imports wheat (9.5 Mt), soybeans (4.5 Mt), Crop Adaptation to Climate Change, First Edition. Edited by Shyam S. Yadav, Robert J. Redden, Jerry L. Hatfield, Hermann Lotze-Campen and Anthony E. Hall. c 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Published 2011 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 131

Crop Adaptation to Climate Change (Yadav/Crop Adaptation to Climate Change) || Climate Change Impacts in Japan and Southeast Asia: Implications for Crop Adaptation

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Crop Adaptation to Climate Change (Yadav/Crop Adaptation to Climate Change) || Climate Change Impacts in Japan and Southeast Asia: Implications for Crop Adaptation

P1: SFK/UKS P2: SFK Color: 1C

BLBS082-3-7 BLBS082-Yadav July 12, 2011 17:34 Trim: 246mm X 189mm

Chapter 3.7

Climate Change Impacts in Japanand Southeast Asia: Implicationsfor Crop AdaptationSivapuram V.R.K. Prabhakar

Introduction

Southeast Asia region comprises a group ofmainland and island countries with diversegeophysical and socioeconomic characteristics.Southeast Asia includes Brunei, Cambodia, EastTimor, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, PapuaNew Guinea, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand,The Union of Myanmar, and Vietnam. Most ofthe Southeast Asian countries are low-incomeand low-middle income economies with an ex-ception of Singapore with high-income economyand Malaysia with upper-middle-income econ-omy (The World Bank 2010). In addition to thesecountries, this paper also touches upon climatechange impacts in Japan, which could provideneeded capacity in mitigation of some of the im-pacts observed in the Southeast Asian countries.Agriculture in value added of national gross do-mestic product (GDP) in this region accounts toabout 17.3%. However, there is a variation withfigures ranging between 41.8% (Lao PDR) and0.1% (Singapore) (Fig. 3.7.1).

While the share of agriculture in nationalGDPs may appear less significant, agricultureundoubtedly plays an important role beyond its

share in the national GDP in these countries.Agriculture employs about 50.4% of total pop-ulation in these countries (FAO 2009c), with arange between less than 1% in Singapore and80% in East Timor, and is backbone for realiz-ing food security and providing needed inputs tothe industry. Southeast Asian countries differ inthe agricultural productivity. In terms of devel-opmental indicators, Southeast Asia is the thirdpoorest region in the world after sub-SaharanAfrica and southern Asia and ranks poorly interms of labor productivity, access to food, ma-ternal health, and forestation (United Nations2009). Hence, any external stress can mean sig-nificant impact on sustainable development ofmany Southeast Asian countries.

Rice is the principal cereal crop cultivatedin the Southeast Asia grown in about 46.7 Mha(amounting to 82% of total area under cerealcultivation in the region) with a productivity of4.04 tha−1 (FAO 2009a) and provides about 60%of total calories, 1195 kcal/capita/day, to mil-lions of people in Southeast Asia (FAO 2009b).Other principal crops grown in the region aremaize, sorghum, wheat, barley, and rye. The re-gion imports wheat (9.5 Mt), soybeans (4.5 Mt),

Crop Adaptation to Climate Change, First Edition. Edited by Shyam S. Yadav, Robert J. Redden, Jerry L. Hatfield,Hermann Lotze-Campen and Anthony E. Hall.c© 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Published 2011 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

131

Page 2: Crop Adaptation to Climate Change (Yadav/Crop Adaptation to Climate Change) || Climate Change Impacts in Japan and Southeast Asia: Implications for Crop Adaptation

P1: SFK/UKS P2: SFK Color: 1C

BLBS082-3-7 BLBS082-Yadav July 12, 2011 17:34 Trim: 246mm X 189mm

Fig

.3.7

.1.

Con

trib

utio

nof

agri

cultu

rese

ctor

toth

eov

eral

lGD

Pin

Japa

nan

dSo

uthe

ast

Asi

a(a

llnu

mbe

rsar

efo

r20

07un

less

othe

rwis

esp

ecifi

edin

the

figur

e).(

Sour

ce:

The

Wor

ldB

ank

2010

.)

132

Page 3: Crop Adaptation to Climate Change (Yadav/Crop Adaptation to Climate Change) || Climate Change Impacts in Japan and Southeast Asia: Implications for Crop Adaptation

P1: SFK/UKS P2: SFK Color: 1C

BLBS082-3-7 BLBS082-Yadav July 12, 2011 17:34 Trim: 246mm X 189mm

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN JAPAN AND SOUTHEAST ASIA 133

maize (4.2 Mt), rice (3.9 Mt), sugar (2.4 Mt), andpalm oil (1.6 Mt). In many Southeast Asian coun-tries, the yield levels of staple food crops such asrice are comparably lower than in other parts ofthe world (3.29 tha−1 compared to 6.49 tha−1 inJapan, 4.39 tha−1 in Asia, and 4.31 tha−1 in theworld) (FAO 2009a).

Southeast Asia region suffers from someof the severe undernourishment problems(UNESCAP 2009). About 16% of the popula-tion here suffers from undernourishment, 46%in Timor-Leste, and 40% in Lao Peoples Demo-cratic Republic, with the prevalence rate alarm-ingly high among the children (about 26%).These high rates of undernourishment implydifficulty in meeting the targets set under theMillennium Development Goals.

Unmitigated climate change is a threat to sus-tainable development globally (Parry et al. 2007)and can significantly increase hunger and mal-nutrition across the globe with no exception forSoutheast Asia (Tubiello and Fischer 2007). Be-cause of the vulnerability context of the South-east Asian region discussed above, the climatechange can pose a serious threat to the sustain-able development of the region in general andagriculture sector in specific. Hence, this chapterconsiders climate change impacts on agriculturein Southeast Asia so as to provide an overviewpicture for identifying suitable interventions atvarious levels.

Climatic change in Japan andSoutheast Asia

Climate change is a global phenomenon withuneven distribution of its impacts across differ-ent geographical locations. Climate change inSoutheast Asia manifests in various forms. Ingeneral, the available global and regional stud-ies indicate that Southeast Asia and Japan are noexception to climate change (Parry et al. 2007;Asian Development Bank 2009; Japan Meteoro-logical Agency 2009) and that the countries in theregion have already started showing the signs ofclimate change (Asian Development Bank 2009;

Japan Meteorological Agency 2009) with differ-ences among countries and regions. This sectionreviews different observed and projected trendsof climate change in Japan and Southeast Asia.

Observed climate change

Japan

The mean temperatures in Japan have been in-creasing at a steady rate. The analysis of tem-perature records during 1900–1996 in Hokkaidoregion of Japan indicated a warming trendwith mean annual temperatures increasing from0.51◦C to 2.77◦C (Yue and Hashino 2003). How-ever, the increase in temperatures cannot besolely attributed to climate change alone. Variousother factors include urbanization, increase in ve-hicular traffic and related pollution (Aikawa et al.2009), and the heat island effect (Aikawa et al.2007). Keeping in view the possible interferencefrom the urbanization, the Japan MeteorologicalAgency has designated 17 meteorological sta-tions that have least possible interference fromthe urbanization and heat island effect and haslong-term recorded temperature. The recordedtemperatures available from these stations overthe 1898–2008 indicate a steady increase in tem-peratures at a rate of 1.11◦C per century (JapanMeteorological Agency 2009). In 2008, the meansurface temperatures in Japan were warmer by0.46◦C compared to the mean temperatures dur-ing 1971–2000. These observations clearly showthe warming in Japan over the recorded period.

The historical precipitation events indicateda discernable trend in Japan. Japan receivedlarge amount of rainfall during mid-1920s and1950s and experienced gradually increasing fluc-tuations from 1970s onward (Japan Meteoro-logical Agency 2009). The variance in rainfallhas increased significantly during recent years.Changes in diurnal precipitation patterns havealso been reported (Fujibe et al. 2006). Over theobserved period of 1898–2003, the precipitationhas shown a relative increasing trend in the earlymorning (02–06 AM JST) and a decreasing trendin the afternoon (14–18 PM JST), each with a rate

Page 4: Crop Adaptation to Climate Change (Yadav/Crop Adaptation to Climate Change) || Climate Change Impacts in Japan and Southeast Asia: Implications for Crop Adaptation

P1: SFK/UKS P2: SFK Color: 1C

BLBS082-3-7 BLBS082-Yadav July 12, 2011 17:34 Trim: 246mm X 189mm

134 CROP ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE

of about 5% per century. These changes reflectthose of intense precipitation (≥10 mm/4 h) inspring and summer, while precipitation amountin autumn and winter showed different changesof diurnal variation patterns (Fujibe et al. 2005).

The analysis of 105 years data (1901–2005)from 51 stations in Japan has indicated an in-crease in the spatial concentration of the precipi-tation (Fujibe and Kobayashi 2007). More hourlyheavy precipitations were recorded in Tokyo dur-ing 1940s than in 1990s (Kanae et al. 2004),dispelling the recent fears that the hourly heavyprecipitation events have increased in the city be-cause of climate change. The time series of an-nual mean sea level observed from 1970 to 2003at 13 stations indicated that the sea level aroundJapan has risen since the middle of 1980s. Thesea level was highest at Kushimoto and Merain the last three decades where the sea rose at arate of 9.3 mm per annum (Japan MeteorologicalAgency 2009). These observations indicate thatthe urban areas recorded higher degree of warm-ing than the rest of the country with discernablechanges in rainfall patterns.

Southeast Asia

Some countries in the region have well-established climate research programs, whileothers are either in advanced development phaseor beginning to establish research programs withexternal support. In most of the Southeast Asiancountries, the density of meteorological obser-vatories and the quality of data in terms of timeseries is limited and hence impacting accurateobservations. Hence, conclusions on the histori-cal observations have to be made with caution.

Significant increase in the annual number ofhot days and warm nights and significant de-crease in cool days and cool nights were reportedin the Southeast Asian countries (Manton et al.2001). Trends in extreme temperatures were con-sistent across the region. Extreme rainfall trendswere less spatially consistent than were those forextreme temperature.

The number of rainy days (with at least 2 mmof rain) has decreased significantly throughoutSoutheast Asia. The proportion of annual rainfallfrom extreme events has increased at majority ofstations. Except in the Philippines, a larger de-crease in the number of cold nights was observedin the region. A regional study based on 20-year rainfall data obtained from 16 locations inBangladesh, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnamhas identified positive rainfall trends in Peninsu-lar Thailand and negative rainfall trends in Suma-tra and Java islands of Indonesia (Egashira et al.2003). The variability in rainfall was, however,higher in the dry season than in the wet season.

IndonesiaAverage annual temperatures in Indonesia haveincreased by 0.3◦C since 1990 in all seasons ofthe year (PEACE 2007). Observations also indi-cate 1990s as the warmest decade and 1998 as thewarmest year in the entire century. In additionto changes in temperatures, long-term changeswere observed in the rainfall patterns. The ob-servations made by BMG (Badan Meteorologidan Geofisika) indicated a shift in wet seasonby 60 days in some parts of Indonesia (WestSumatra, Jambi, Jayaputra, and Merauke) andrainy season advanced by 30 days in some otherparts of Indonesia (Baten and Jakarta), while nochanges were observed in some other parts of thecountry (e.g., Ujung, Kulon, Ujung Padang, Ma-diun, Malang, Kediri, Pacitan, Gresik, and Blitar)(Ratang 2007). Observations also indicated a sig-nificant increase in the intensity of rainfall in therange of 100–150 mm per day at Tamanbogo andGenteng stations recorded during 1991–2000.

VietnamIn general, the climate observations are reportedto be in conformity with the regional and globaltrends. The monthly mean temperatures have in-creased by 0.07–0.15◦C per decade (Ministryof Natural Resources and Environment 2003).However, these observations are not uniform

Page 5: Crop Adaptation to Climate Change (Yadav/Crop Adaptation to Climate Change) || Climate Change Impacts in Japan and Southeast Asia: Implications for Crop Adaptation

P1: SFK/UKS P2: SFK Color: 1C

BLBS082-3-7 BLBS082-Yadav July 12, 2011 17:34 Trim: 246mm X 189mm

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN JAPAN AND SOUTHEAST ASIA 135

throughout the country with some observato-ries showing a different trend from the nationaltrend. The temperatures recorded at A Luoi andNam Dong stations over the period of 1974–2004have shown an increasing trend (NCAP 2007).The temperature recorded at Hue station indi-cated a slight declining trend over the period of1991–2004, with no clear trend over 1928–1990.In most of the locations, the January tempera-tures (winter season) were observed to becomewarmer when compared to the July month (sum-mer season). The annual rainfall at A Luoi andNam Dong has increased by 800 and 600 mm, re-spectively, over a period of 1974–2004 with rel-atively stable rainfall before 1990s. The rainfallhas increased during the rainy season (Augustto December and April to May) and decreasedduring drier periods (June to July), with signifi-cant drought risks during drier periods and floodsduring the rainy season. At Hue, the trends weremore complex with increasing trend of rainfallafter 1996. At this location, the rainfall showeda decreasing trend during January to March withvalues crossing the 100 mm drought threshold inmost of the years after 1986.

CambodiaThe meteorological data availability in Cambo-dia is relatively poor due to the war and destruc-tion of meteorological observatories. To date,Cambodia has 38 meteorological observatoriesthat record temperature and rainfall and 23 obser-vatories that record evaporation and 14 stationsthat record wind speed (Ministry of Environment2002). From the limited available data for the pe-riod of 1980–2000, no discernable trends wereobserved in temperature and rainfall (Ministry ofEnvironment 2001).

ThailandKnown as the rice bowl of Asia, any changes intemperature and precipitation patterns in Thai-land could lead to negative impact on the food se-curity of the region. The observed maximum and

minimum temperatures showed an increasingtrend in Thailand over the period of 1951–2002(Greenpeace 2006). From a long-term perspec-tive, based on principal component analysis oftemperature data available between 1951 and2003, the minimum temperatures that have beenreported have increased at an unprecedented ratesince the early 1950s, consistent with the globaland hemisphere average patterns (Limsakulaand Goes 2008). The minimum temperatureschanged quicker than the maximum tempera-tures, leading to narrowing down of diurnaltemperature ranges in Thailand. Maximum tem-perature increased significantly at Nan, whilethe increases at Prachuap Khiri Khan were notsignificant (Manton et al. 2001). Temperaturechanges in other parts of Thailand are not con-sistent with the above observations. Northernprovinces of Thailand, which include ChiangMai, Chiang Rai, Lampoon, and Lampang,Phrae, Phayao, Nan, and Pitsanulok, did notshow any long-term trends (Kwanyuen 2000).

Summer monsoon rains are a critical factorin Thailand’s water resources and agricultureplanning and management. Consequently, under-standing the variability of the summer monsoonrains over Thailand is important for institutingeffective mitigating strategies against extremerainfall fluctuations. The observed rainfall pat-terns in the Chao Phraya delta, which is con-sidered the rice bowl of Thailand, has showna declining trend over the observed period of1952–1991 (Kwanyuen 2000). The reduction inrainfall was prominent in the river basins of Kok,Ping, and Nan, and no changes were observed inSalawin, Wang, and Yom basins. The subbasinlevel observations were consistent with the basinlevel observations, indicating little spatial varia-tion in rainfall trends in these basins. At Nan, thenumber of rainy days has decreased significantly,and the proportion of total rainfall from extremerainfall has increased significantly (Manton et al.2001). Prachuap Khiri Khan showed a signifi-cant decrease in rainy days. There was a signif-icant increase in extreme minimum temperature

Page 6: Crop Adaptation to Climate Change (Yadav/Crop Adaptation to Climate Change) || Climate Change Impacts in Japan and Southeast Asia: Implications for Crop Adaptation

P1: SFK/UKS P2: SFK Color: 1C

BLBS082-3-7 BLBS082-Yadav July 12, 2011 17:34 Trim: 246mm X 189mm

136 CROP ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE

at both stations, partly owing to a peak in 1998.The number of warm nights increased, and thenumber of cold nights and cool days decreased.Prior to 1980s, there was weak relationship be-tween summer monsoon and El Nino SouthernOscillation (ENSO). However, the recent studieshave indicated a negative relationship betweenENSO and summer monsoon (Singhrattna et al.2005). This increasing influence by the ENSOduring recent decades has been attributed to theWalker circulation over the Thailand–Indonesiaregion. In some models, a clear influence ofclimate change on Walker circulation has beenestablished (Power et al. 2007).

MalaysiaThere has been a significant decrease in rainydays at all stations, except Kuching (Mantonet al. 2001). There were no other significanttrends in extreme rainfall indices. Nights becamewarmer with a large peak in 1998. Significantdecrease in the frequency of cool days and coldnights was also observed.

PhilippinesThree out of five stations in Philippines showeda decrease in rainy days (Baguio, in the northof the archipelago, Daet, which is situated alongthe east coast, and Dumaguete, in the middleislands) (Manton et al. 2001). At Basco, therewere significant increases in the frequency ofwarm nights and hot days and a decrease inthe number of cool days and cold nights. AtBaguio, the frequency of warm nights and hotdays also exhibited significant increases, with asignificant decrease in the number of cool days.At Tuguegarao, a valley region, the frequencyof cold nights has shown a significant decrease.Increasing urbanization is known to exacerbatethe climate change in some parts of the region.For example, in Metro Manila, the urbanizationhas impacted the temperature with no apprecia-ble change in the rainfall within the city (Es-toque and Maria 2000). The temperatures rose ata rate of 3◦C per century with little observable

changes in rainfall in the northern side of thecity. These kinds of urbanization-induced local-ized climatic changes could also have implica-tions for the nearby surrounding areas and hencedeserves greater attention in the increasingly ur-banizing Southeast Asia.

Projected climate change

General circulation models (GCMs) are used tosimulate future climate change scenarios result-ing from the accumulation of greenhouse gases(GHG). The most common GCMs employed ingenerating simulations are Coupled GCMs (e.g.,CSIRO global coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea-ice model), HadCM2 model, ECHAM4/OPYC3model, MIROC3.2 of Center for Climate Sys-tems Research, Japan, and First GenerationCouple General Circulation model of the Cana-dian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis.The outputs of these GCMs (e.g., the monthlymean values of climate variables) are used toderive the local impacts of the climate change.More recently, multi-model ensembles becamemore prominent tools in providing more reli-able climate projections than the single modelapproaches (Tebaldi and Knutti 2007).

Japan

In Japan, the Meteorological Research Institute(MRI) has carried out climate change projec-tion with the global climate model at broad res-olution (280 km mesh). The results were uti-lized to drive the high resolution (20 km mesh)MRI regional climate model to make projec-tion of climate change in Japan. The informa-tion on the regional climate changes, in tem-perature, precipitation etc., were presented forseveral climatological regions, such as NorthJapan, East Japan, and West Japan, or the Seaof Japan side and the Pacific side. The modelcould represent the sea surface temperatures well(Murazaki et al. 2005). The model has pro-jected a remarkable warming trend to the eastof Hokkaido in both winter and summer seasons

Page 7: Crop Adaptation to Climate Change (Yadav/Crop Adaptation to Climate Change) || Climate Change Impacts in Japan and Southeast Asia: Implications for Crop Adaptation

P1: SFK/UKS P2: SFK Color: 1C

BLBS082-3-7 BLBS082-Yadav July 12, 2011 17:34 Trim: 246mm X 189mm

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN JAPAN AND SOUTHEAST ASIA 137

and cooling near Sanriku. The model RCM20also projected increased daily precipitation dur-ing June to September (Kurihara et al. 2005). Inother months, the precipitations will either de-crease or will not change significantly in mostparts of Japan. The climate projection for thetwenty-first century by the high-resolution model(T106) showed that mean precipitation will in-crease more than 10% in 100 years from thepresent, especially in warm seasons (Kimotoet al. 2005). Increases in frequencies of non-precipitating and heavy (≥30 mm per day)rainfall days and decrease in relatively weak(1–20 mm per day) rainfall days were signifi-cant. The future climate change may lead to in-creased summer sea surface temperatures and ElNino like conditions with increased precipitationin the western part of Japan. Climate simulationstoward 2090s indicated a reduction in number offrost days by 20–45 days along the Sea of Japanand the growing season increases by a month(Mizuta et al. 2005). Statistically significant in-crease in indices of heavy rainfall is projectedin western part of Japan and Hokkaido, with nosignificant changes in the rest of the country.

Southeast Asia

Climate projections in Southeast Asia have beendifficult due to the reason that most of the GCMshave shortcomings in representing the ENSOphenomenon, which is the strong source of vari-ability in Southeast Asia region. The projectedclimate change over the Southeast Asia indi-cated a general warming trend over the projectedtimescales (Parry et al. 2007; Allison et al. 2009).The temperature projections in Southeast Asiaare projected to follow the global mean pro-jections (an increase in temperatures by 2.5◦Cup to 2099) with likely increase in precipita-tion (Christensen et al. 2007). The extreme rain-fall events and winds associated with tropicalcyclones may increase with high confidence inmost of the climate change scenarios in the re-gion. The individual country variation in the pro-jected climate change is discussed below.

IndonesiaThe future air temperatures in Indonesia will in-crease relatively slower at a rate of 0.1–0.3◦Cper decade compared to the global average of0.1–0.4◦C per decade by 2100, depending on themodels employed (PEACE 2007). The projec-tions were uniform across various islands andare comparable to the rate of warming observedin the historical data available from 1970. Cli-mate projections indicate a high probability thatthe annual average level of precipitation will re-main constant for Indonesia by the middle ofthe twenty-first century, but the annual cycleof rainfall is expected to shift such that morerain will fall in a short wet season and will befollowed by a much longer dry season (Nayloret al. 2007; Naylor and Mastrandrea 2009). Thishas implications for higher probability of pro-longed droughts and higher surface runoff lead-ing to soil erosion in the increasingly deforestedIndonesia.

Mekong regionConformal Cubic Atmospheric model (CCAM)was employed to study the impact of climatechange in the lower Mekong region (Chinvannoet al. 2006). CCAM is the second-generation re-gional climate model developed for Australasianregion with a resolution of 0.1◦ (about 10 km ×10 km). Three levels of simulations were carriedout with varying levels of CO2 concentrations.The model simulations showed increased pre-cipitation throughout the Mekong region witha range of no changes to 500 mm per annumand indicated a potential high-intensity rainfallwith the same duration of the current climate.The Mekong basin would be warmer by 0.79◦Cwith greater increase toward north of the basin(Eastham et al. 2008). The runoff would increasein most climate change scenarios projected in2030 due to combination of high-intensity rain-fall during rainy season and accelerated melt-ing of glaciers. The dry season runoff wouldremain same across the basin, including in theTonle Sap catchment in Cambodia. This has

Page 8: Crop Adaptation to Climate Change (Yadav/Crop Adaptation to Climate Change) || Climate Change Impacts in Japan and Southeast Asia: Implications for Crop Adaptation

P1: SFK/UKS P2: SFK Color: 1C

BLBS082-3-7 BLBS082-Yadav July 12, 2011 17:34 Trim: 246mm X 189mm

138 CROP ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE

potential implications for the increasing floodintensity during rainy season and drought inten-sity during dry season in the region with nega-tive impacts on agriculture. The MIKE11 modelwas used to simulate flow and salinity intru-sion from December to June (dry season) for themedium-term (mid-2030s) and long-term (mid-2090s) scenarios using data derived from theSRES B2 climate change projection (Khang et al.2008). Models have projected +20 to +45 cmrise in sea level with a reduction in MekongRiver flow by −15% to −29%. Scenarios showedthat the 2.5 g/L saline front is likely to shiftupstream by 10 and 20 km in the main riverchannels, and up to 20 and 35 km in the paddyfield, respectively, in medium- and long-termscenarios.

Three GCMs (UK 89, UKMO, and GISS)were employed to construct temperature and pre-cipitation scenarios over Thailand (Thailand En-vironment Institute 1999). All models showed anincrease in temperature, high in central, north,and west regions (3–3.5◦C), and little increasein northeast region (2.5◦C). Models predicted anincrease in rainfall by 20% (Bachelet et al. 1992;Greenpeace 2006). The UK Met Office HadleyCentre HadCM3 GCM with a spatial resolutionof 2.5◦ latitude by 3.75◦ longitude projected awarming of 1.74–3.43◦C in 2080 (Parkpoom andHarrison 2008). Studies also indicated that theclimate change could reduce the rainfall andreduce the runoff in Chao Phraya basin withnegative impact on its catchment areas (Min-istry of Science, Technology and Environment2000). Results from an ensemble of 20 mod-els revealed that Thailand will be warmer underboth low and high emissions scenarios during2040–2069 when compared to the mean tem-peratures observed during 1972–2003 (Felkneret al. 2009). However, the magnitude of temper-ature increase under high emissions scenario willbe 40% higher than the low emissions scenarioduring the period 2040–2069. Daily precipita-tion will increase throughout the year under lowemission scenario and there will be less precip-itation in the second half of the year, starting in

June coinciding with the growing season of ricecrop, in the high emission scenario.

Projected climate change impactson crops

Projecting climate change impacts on agricultureinvolves complex interactions between climate,agriculture systems, and crop management. Inorder to obtain relevant impact projections, theclimate predictions of GCMs are utilized by thedynamic crop simulation models (e.g., DecisionSupport System for Agrotechnology Transfer),and land management decision tools. Agroeco-logical models are often employed to the ad-vantage of the high resolution of dynamic cropmodels while still being able to compute forlarge-scale computations with relatively goodaccuracy.

Climate change is expected to threaten therice crop, the most important staple food cropin Southeast Asia, due to heat-induced spikeletsterility or increased crop respiration losses dur-ing grain filling (IRRI 2006). Most of the ricecrop being currently grown is in the thresholdlevels of temperatures congenial for rice crop.In Southeast Asia, the hottest months are beforeonset of monsoon season from March to June,which coincides with the final stage of dry seasonrice crop. These areas are already experiencinghigh temperatures of 36◦C and above and henceare already in the threshold level of tolerance.Any warming in these areas would mean signif-icant reduction in rice yields (Wassmann et al.2009). The HadCM3 global climate model usingIPCC SRES scenarios indicated global and re-gional yield decline of crops such as wheat, rice,maize, and soybeans (Parry et al. 2004). TheA1FI scenario with large increase in global tem-peratures exhibited the greatest decreases bothregionally and globally in yields by the 2080s.The contrast between the yield change in devel-oped and developing countries was largest underthe A2A–C scenarios. Under B1 and B2 sce-narios, developed and developing countries ex-hibited less contrast in crop yield changes, with

Page 9: Crop Adaptation to Climate Change (Yadav/Crop Adaptation to Climate Change) || Climate Change Impacts in Japan and Southeast Asia: Implications for Crop Adaptation

P1: SFK/UKS P2: SFK Color: 1C

BLBS082-3-7 BLBS082-Yadav July 12, 2011 17:34 Trim: 246mm X 189mm

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN JAPAN AND SOUTHEAST ASIA 139

the B2 future crop yield changes being slightlymore favorable than those of the B1 scenario. InAsia, the reduction in crop yields was as high as30%. Introducing CO2 fertilization effect has re-duced the negative impact of high temperatures,especially in mid- and high-latitude areas withtemperate cereals and South Asia due to deeppenetration of monsoon in summer and length-ened growing season. Similar benefits of CO2

fertilization was observed in Southeast Asia aswell.

Japan

In Japan, the future climate change is projected toincrease the intensity and course of typhoons, in-creased wind speeds, coastal erosion due to sealevel rise, decrease in flood control safety, andincreased frequency of landslide disasters (TheGlobal Environment Bureau 2008). Five coupledAtmosphere-Ocean General Circulation modelswere employed to simulate the impact of futureclimate change on the rice production in Japanfollowing the IPCC SRES (Special Report onEmissions Scenario) A1B scenario (Iizumi et al.2006). The simulations indicated that the head-ing day will be advanced with insignificant yieldchanges at the national level (within the interan-nual variability of the current climate). However,distinct changes were projected at the regionallevel with increased yields in northern Japan anddecreased yields in southwestern Japan. Yieldsshowed distinct variance in the southwesternJapan due to heat stress.

Southeast Asia

Projected climate change scenarios suggest a sig-nificant decline in yields of major crops in South-east Asia, including rice by 1.4% (Lobell et al.2008), wheat by 10–95% (Fischer et al. 2005),and soybeans by 10% (Lobell et al. 2008). Theagroecological zone models projected that the at-tainable wheat yields would decline substantiallyin the range of 10–95% in 2080s when comparedto 1990 in Southeast Asia (Fischer et al. 2005).

The reduction in wheat yields is due to the in-creasing temperatures, especially during the pan-icle initiation and flowing stages. The favorablearea under wheat would either reduce or movetoward the north in the region with expansion ofarea under subtropical and tropical crops replac-ing the wheat. Under various climate scenarios,the area covered by the cool, temperate wheatmega-environments could expand as far as 65◦N(Ortiza et al. 2008). Raising sea level can threatenthe crop production in many areas of SoutheastAsia. The Mekong River delta region in Vietnamand Cambodia are already facing the negativeimpacts of sea level rise and related intrusion ofwater into rice-cultivated areas during the dryseason (Wassmann and Dobermann 2007).

A global study on prioritizing adaptationneeds for food security in 2030 was carriedout by generating hunger importance ratingsfor all crops and region combinations (Lobellet al. 2008). Climate change impacts were ob-tained from outputs of 20 GCMs and produc-tion changes for 2030 were expressed as relativeto the average of 1980–1990. The study indi-cated a significant reduction in yield of rice andsoybeans. About 5% of the models projecteda reduction in soybean yields by 10% or moreand 50% of models projecting soybean yield re-duction by 5% in the Southeast Asia. Most ofthese reductions were attributed to the large de-pendence of historical production variations ontemperature combined with the large projectedwarming overwhelming the large uncertainties inprecipitation changes. Higher reduction in cropyields in climate change scenarios mean greaterimpact of GHG mitigation. GHG mitigation inSoutheast Asia could bring significant increasein cereal yields up to 130% in wheat, maize,rice, and other coarse grains with most of the in-crements coming from the developing countries(Tubiello and Fischer 2007).

The Mekong region is highly vulnerable toclimate change impacts. Studies have indicatedincreased rainfall intensity in the Mekong regionwith implications for floods (Chinvanno et al.2006) and water scarcity during dry seasons due

Page 10: Crop Adaptation to Climate Change (Yadav/Crop Adaptation to Climate Change) || Climate Change Impacts in Japan and Southeast Asia: Implications for Crop Adaptation

P1: SFK/UKS P2: SFK Color: 1C

BLBS082-3-7 BLBS082-Yadav July 12, 2011 17:34 Trim: 246mm X 189mm

140 CROP ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE

to reduced runoff and sea water intrusion (Khanget al. 2008). The model projections on impact offuture climate change on crop production werenot uniform across the Mekong basin and hencethere is greater uncertainty (Eastham et al. 2008).However, the food scarcity may increase due topopulation pressure. The sea level rise could re-duce the area under triple cropping of rice by70,000 ha, while the single crop area will in-crease by 38,000 and 179,000 ha for the near-and long-term scenarios (Khang et al. 2008).

In Thailand, the rice yields could drop by57% in Roi Et province but increase by 25%in Surin province (Ministry of Science, Technol-ogy and Environment 2000). The four climatemodels also demonstrated that climate changecould increase temperature during the floweringperiod of crops by 1–7◦C.

This will reduce flowering and harvesting pe-riods as well as crop yields in general. A studybased on ensemble-mean of 20 well-recognizedglobal climate models following the IPCC SRESscenarios along with the DSSAT model revealedthe complexity of climate change impacts onrice crop in Thailand (Felkner et al. 2009). TheDSSAT simulations have projected yield reduc-tions of 30–50% in both low- and high-emissionscenarios. The yield reductions were either mod-erated or even improved when farmers’ responseto rainfall change was incorporated through aneconomic model. These results indicate that tak-ing into consideration the farmers’ response toclimate change impacts would be crucial in get-ting management appropriate results.

Conclusion

The climate change observations and projec-tions face several challenges in Southeast Asia.Many of these limitations are related to the qual-ity of data available, density of meteorologicalstations, limited capabilities in employing ad-vanced climate prediction models and integratedclimate risk assessment, and the uncertainty inthe projections due to the inherent limitationswith the GCMs in terms of their spatial reso-

lution and limited representation of some localclimatic conditions such as ENSO phenomenon.More detailed and accurate information is re-quired for designing adaptation and mitigationplans valid at the local level. There is a long wayto obtaining the dependable downscaled impactprojections. Tools such as MRI Earth SystemModel (MRI-ESM) could help in reducing theuncertainty in global and regional projections.However, the integration of GCMs with the dy-namic crop models and agroecological modelsstill needs further development.

In general, on regional basis, there is an agree-ment in the literature over projected warmingtrends and associated changes in the precipita-tion and impacts on crops. However, there arespatial and temporal variability in both observedand projected climate at the country level. Thisnecessitates the need for high-resolution climatemodels those could provide reliable estimate ofclimate variables in compatibility with the re-gional climate models and dynamic crop models.

Adaptation options need to be identified todeal with the projected climate change impactsin the region. Though some of the adaptationoptions could be as simple as changing plant-ing dates and providing irrigation facilities, otheradaptation options could be costly and time con-suming, needing careful planning and resourceallocation. Identifying effective adaptation op-tions need proper decision support tools that arebased on thorough understanding of how cropsinteract with the climate and management prac-tices. There is a dearth of combination of socioe-conomic and biophysical models that can pro-vide more opportunity to know the actual cropyields under different management conditions offarmers. Such decision support tools would pro-vide much better understanding on biophysicaland socioeconomic impacts of climate change.

Crops are cultivated based on location-specific conditions, including local climate,weather, soil, and farmer management practices.These factors interact with each other and withthe complex local cultural factors. Any approachthat assesses the impact of climate change would

Page 11: Crop Adaptation to Climate Change (Yadav/Crop Adaptation to Climate Change) || Climate Change Impacts in Japan and Southeast Asia: Implications for Crop Adaptation

P1: SFK/UKS P2: SFK Color: 1C

BLBS082-3-7 BLBS082-Yadav July 12, 2011 17:34 Trim: 246mm X 189mm

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN JAPAN AND SOUTHEAST ASIA 141

have to take all these factors into considerationand any single model approach could be lessthan useful. Climate change calls for innovativeways of producing new varieties of crops andinnovative crop management practices. Increas-ing incidences of floods and sea level rise couldalter the type of crops cultivated in the coastaland other vulnerable areas. There is a need forcrop adaptation, both genetic and agronomic, andshift from yield-oriented approach of agricul-tural research and extension systems to that ofadaptation-oriented approach, while benefitingfrom the positive aspects of climate change.

Acknowledgments

This work was carried out with the support of theAPN project No CRP2009-02NMY-Pereira.

References

Aikawa M, Hiraki T, Eiho J (2009) Change of atmosphericcondition in an urbanized area of Japan from the view-point of rainfall intensity. Environmental Monitoring andAssessment 148(1–4): 449–453.

Aikawa M, Hiraki T, Eiho J et al. (2007) Characteristic airtemperature distributions observed in summer and winterin urban area in Japan. Environmental Monitoring andAssessment 131(1–3): 255–265.

Allison EH, Perry AL, Badjeck M et al. (2009) Vulnerabilityof national economies to the impacts of climate changeon fisheries. Fish and Fisheries 10(2): 173–196.

Asian Development Bank (2009) The Economics of ClimateChange in Southeast Asia: A Regional Review. AsianDevelopment Bank, Manila, Philippines.

Bachelet D, Brown D, Bohm M et al. (1992) Climate changein Thailand and its potential impact on rice yield. ClimaticChange 21(4): 347–366.

Chinvanno S, Souvannalath S, Lersupavithnapa B et al.(2006) Climate Risks and Rice Farming in the LowerMekong River Countries. International START Secre-tariat, Washington, DC.

Christensen JH, Hewitson B, Busuioc A et al. (2007) Re-gional climate projections. In: S Solomon, D Qin, MManning, Z Chen, M Marquis, KB Averyt, M Tignor,and HL Miller (eds) Climate Change 2007: The Physi-cal Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I tothe Fourth Assessment Report of the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change. Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change, Cambridge University Press, UK andNew York, NY.

Eastham J, Mpelasoka F, Mainuddin M et al. (2008) MekongRiver Basin Water Resources Assessment: Impacts ofClimate Change. CSIRO, Brisbane.

Egashira K, Matsushita Y, Virakornphanich P et al. (2003)Features and trends of rainfall in recent 20 years atdifferent locations in humid tropical and sub-tropicalAsia. Journal of Faculty of Agriculture Kyushu Univer-sity 48(1–2): 219–225.

Estoque MA, Maria MS (2000) Climate change due to ur-banization of Metro Manila. Manila Observatory 10(1):1–11.

FAO (2009a) FAO ProdSTAT . FAO, Rome. Available from:http://faostat.fao.org/site/526/default.aspx. AccessedJanuary 12, 2010.

FAO (2009b) FAO Consumption STAT . FAO, Rome. Avail-able from: http://faostat.fao.org/site/345/default.aspx.Accessed January 04, 2010.

FAO (2009c) FAO PopSTAT . FAO, Rome. Available from:http://faostat.fao.org/site/452/default.aspx. AccessedJanuary 12, 2010.

Felkner J, Tazhibayeva K, Townsend R (2009) Impact ofclimate change on rice production in Thailand. AmericanEconomic Review 99(2): 205–210.

Fischer G, Shah M, Tubiello FN et al. (2005) Socioeconomicand climate change impacts on agriculture: An integratedassessment, 1990–2080. Philosophical Transactions ofthe Royal Society 360(1463): 2067–2083.

Fujibe F, Kobayashi K (2007) Long-term changes in the spa-tial concentration of daily precipitation in Japan. SOLA3(1): 53–56.

Fujibe F, Yamazaki N, Katsuyama M et al. (2005) The in-creasing trend of intense precipitation in Japan basedon four-hourly data for a hundred years. SOLA 1(1):41–44.

Fujibe F, Yamazaki N, Kobayashi K (2006) Long-termchanges in the diurnal precipitation cycles in Japan for106 years 1898–2003. Journal of the Meteorological So-ciety of Japan 84(2): 311–317.

Greenpeace (2006) Climate Change and Thailand. Green-peace, Bangkok, Thailand.

Iizumi T, Hori ME, Yokozawa M et al. (2006) Impact ofglobal warming on rice production in Japan based on fivecoupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs. SOLA 2(2): 156–159.

IRRI (2006) Climate Change and Rice Cropping Systems:Potential Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies. Interna-tional Rice Research Institute, Manila, Philippines.

Japan Meteorological Agency (2009) Climate Change Moni-toring Report 2008. Japan meteorological Agency Tokyo,Japan.

Kanae S, Oki T, Kashida A (2004) Changes in hourly heavyprecipitation at Tokyo from 1890 to 1999. Journal of theMeteorological Society of Japan 82(1): 241–247.

Khang ND, Kotera A, Sakamoto T et al. (2008) Sensitivity ofsalinity intrusion to sea level rise and river flow changein Vietnamese Mekong Delta—Impacts on availability ofirrigation water for rice cropping. Journal of AgriculturalMeteorology 64(3): 167–176.

Page 12: Crop Adaptation to Climate Change (Yadav/Crop Adaptation to Climate Change) || Climate Change Impacts in Japan and Southeast Asia: Implications for Crop Adaptation

P1: SFK/UKS P2: SFK Color: 1C

BLBS082-3-7 BLBS082-Yadav July 12, 2011 17:34 Trim: 246mm X 189mm

142 CROP ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE

Kimoto M, Yasutomi N, Yokoyama C et al. (2005) Projectedchanges in precipitation characteristics around Japan un-der the global warming. SOLA 1(1): 85–88.

Kurihara K, Ishihara K, Sasaki H et al. (2005) Projectionof climatic change over Japan due to global warming byhigh-resolution regional climate model in MRI. SOLA1(1): 97–100.

Kwanyuen B (2000) Comparative study of rainfall changein the north of Thailand. In: Proceedings of Interna-tional Conference on The Chao Phraya delta: Histor-ical Development, Dynamics and Challenges of Thai-lands Rice Bowl, Kasetsart University, Bangkok, Vol. 1,pp. 369–378.

Limsakula A, Goes JI (2008) Empirical evidence for inter-annual and longer period variability in Thailand surfaceair temperatures. Atmospheric Research 87(2): 89–102.

Lobell DB, Burke MB, Tebaldi C et al. (2008) Prioritizing cli-mate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030.Science 319(2): 607–610.

Manton MJ, Della-Marta PM, Haylock MR et al. (2001)Trends in extreme daily rainfall and temperature in South-east Asia and the South Pacific: 1961–1998. InternationalJournal of Climatology 21(3): 269–284.

Ministry of Environment (2001) Vulnerability and Adap-tation Assessment to Climate Change in Cambodia.Kingdom of Cambodia and UNDP/GEF, Phnom Penh,Cambodia.

Ministry of Environment (2002) Cambodia’s Initial NationalCommunication. Kingdom of Cambodia, Phnom Penh.

Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (2003) Viet-nam Initial National Communication. Ha Noi, Vietnam.

Ministry of Science, Technology and Environment (2000)Thailands Initial National Communication. Governmentof Thailand, Bangkok, Thailand.

Mizuta R, Uchiyama T, Kamiguchi K et al. (2005) Changesin extremes indices over Japan due to global warmingprojected by a global 20-km-mesh atmospheric model.SOLA 1(2): 153–156.

Murazaki K, Sasaki H, Tsujino H et al. (2005) Climaticchange projection for the ocean around Japan using ahigh-resolution coupled atmosphere-ocean regional cli-mate model. SOLA 1(1): 101–104.

Naylor RN, Battisti DS, Vimont DJ et al. (2007) Assess-ing risks of climate variability and climate change forIndonesian rice agriculture. PNAS 104(19): 7752–7757.

Naylor RL, Mastrandrea MD (2009) Coping with climaterisks in Indonesian rice agriculture: A policy perspec-tive. In: AJ Filar and A Haurie (eds) Uncertainty andEnvironmental Decision Making, pp. 120–145. Springer,The Netherlands.

NCAP (2007) Climate Change and Climate Variability inVietnam and Thua Thien Hue Province: Historical Trendsand Future Projections. The Netherlands Climate Assis-tance Program, Ha Noi.

Ortiza R, Sayrea KD, Govaertsa B et al. (2008) Climatechange: Can wheat beat the heat? Agriculture, Ecosys-tems and Environment 126(1–2): 46–58.

Parkpoom S, Harrison GP (2008) Analyzing the impact ofclimate change on future electricity demand in Thai-land. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 23(3): 1441–1448.

Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP et al. (2007) Technicalsummary. In: ML Parry, OF Canziani, JP Palutikof, PJHanson (eds) Climate Change 2007: Working Group II:Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge Uni-versity Press, Cambridge, UK.

Parry ML, Rosenzweig C, Iglesias A et al. (2004) Effects ofclimate change on global food production under SRESemissions and socio-economic scenarios. Global Envi-ronmental Change 14(1): 53–67.

PEACE (2007) Indonesia and Climate Change: Current Sta-tus and Policies. PEACE, The World Bank, and DFID,Jakarta, Indonesia.

Power S, Smith I, Moise A et al. (2007) The Impact of ClimateChange on ENSO and Its Effects on Australian Precipita-tion. CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Habort,Tasmania.

Ratang M (2007) Perubahan iklim: Perubahan variaisi curahhujan, cuaca dan iklim ekstrim. Jakarta, Indonesia.

Singhrattna N, Rajagopalan B, Kumar KK et al. (2005) Inter-annual and interdecadal variability of Thailand summermonsoon season. Journal of American MeteorologicalSociety 18(10): 1697–1708.

Tebaldi C, Knutti R (2007) The use of the multi-modelensemble in probabilistic climate projections. Philo-sophical Transactions of The Royal Society 265(1857):2053–2075.

Thailand Environment Institute (1999) Thailands CountryStudy on Climate Change: A Report submitted to theMinistry of Science. Bangkok, Thailand.

The Global Environment Bureau (2008) Wise Adapta-tion to Climate Change. Government of Japan, Tokyo,Japan.

The World Bank (2010) Development Data and Statistics.The World Bank, Washington, DC.

Tubiello FN, Fischer G (2007) Reducing climate changeimpacts on agriculture: Global and regional effects ofmitigation, 2000–2080. Technological Forecasting andSocial Change 74(10): 1030–1056.

UNESCAP (2009) Sustainable Agriculture and FoodSecurity in Asia and the Pacific. UNESCAP Bangkok,Thailand.

United Nations (2009) The Millennium Development GoalsReport 2009. United Nations, New York, NY.

Wassmann R, Dobermann A (2007) Climate change adapta-tion through rice production in regions with high povertylevels. SAT eJournal 4(1): 1–24.

Wassmann R, Jagadish SVK, Sumfleth K et al. (2009) Re-gional vulnerability of climate change impacts on Asianrice production and scope for adaptation. Advances inAgronomy 102: 92–131.

Yue S, Hashino AM (2003) Temperature trends inJapan: 1900–1996. Theoretical and Applied Climatology75(1–2): 15–27.