Crop Adaptation to Climate Change (Yadav/Crop Adaptation to Climate Change) || Regional Climate Impacts on Agriculture in Europe

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Chapter 3.4

Regional Climate Impacts on Agriculturein EuropeHermann Lotze-Campen

Agriculture in Europe

Europe is one of the largest and most productivesuppliers of agricultural crops and commodities.In 2004, the continent provided 20% of globalcereal production and had average yields perhectare that were 60% higher than the globalaverage (Alcamo et al. 2007). Agricultural landarea, including arable land and woodland, cov-ers more than three-quarters of the territory ofthe European Union (EU) (European Commis-sion 2007). Climate impacts on agriculture arelikely to have only minimal impacts on the Eu-ropean economy as a whole, because agricul-ture accounts for only 2% of gross domesticproduct and for around 5% of total employment(Barthelemy 2007). However, in some regions,local effects of climate change could possibly belarge. Water abstraction utilized by agricultureaccounts for 32% of total water withdrawals. Inthe northern regions, water abstraction is stableor declining, but it is growing in southern regions(Alcamo et al. 2007).

The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) ofthe EU dominates the trends in European agricul-ture. In the last decade, it has been reformed to

reduce overproduction and environmental dam-ages as well as to improve rural development(Alcamo et al. 2007). In the future, Europeanagricultural policies need to support adaptationof agricultural practices to changing climate con-ditions. However, so far, there are many uncer-tainties regarding future climate conditions in thedifferent regions of Europe. Moreover, socioeco-nomic factors are likely to have more influenceover future productivity and land use decisionsthan climate (Audsley et al. 2006). Current poli-cies are designed to support farm income andprotect farmers from world market conditionsand external price fluctuations. Especially, ex-port subsidies for some products tend to put agri-culture in other world regions at a disadvantage.In the future, pressures for change in the CAPare likely to come from four different areas: thedemand for further trade liberalization from thenegotiations at the World Trade Organization,implementation of climate adaptation strategiesin agricultural production, reducing greenhousegas emissions from agriculture as a contributionto more general climate protection targets, andan increased demand for biomass-based energycarriers.

Crop Adaptation to Climate Change, First Edition. Edited by Shyam S. Yadav, Robert J. Redden, Jerry L. Hatfield,Hermann Lotze-Campen and Anthony E. Hall.c© 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Published 2011 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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REGIONAL CLIMATE IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE IN EUROPE 79

Present climate conditionsfor agriculture

In Europe, there are very different conditionsfor agriculture, determined by environmentaland socioeconomic factors (Kostrowicki 1991).Northern regions are characterized by extensivecattle breeding, as cropping is limited by unfa-vorable climate conditions. In the Nordic coun-tries, yields are very low due to a short grow-ing season, which is 1–3 months shorter than,e.g., in Germany. In addition, there are yieldrisks due to night frosts in late spring and earlyautumn. The Atlantic and Central Continen-tal regions are characterized by intensive andmarket-oriented agriculture operated by small-to large-scale farming systems. The great Eu-ropean plain, which is the most productive re-gion in Europe, reaches from southeast Eng-land through France, Benelux, and Germany intoPoland. France is the largest producer of cereals,followed by Germany and Poland. Together, theyaccount for more than half of the total produc-tion. In Southern Europe, highly intensive agri-culture can be found as well as more traditional,extensive agricultural practices. The warm anddry climate limits cereal yields but favors grow-ing of perennial crops such as fruit trees, olives,and grapes. However, these crops are more vul-nerable to extreme weather events that can re-duce or destroy yields. Irrigation is very impor-tant in many Mediterranean regions because ofhigh temperatures and insufficient precipitationduring the growing season. The Eastern Euro-pean regions are still in the process of trans-formation from the socialist past, resulting inrising production intensity and higher yields. Inparts of Eastern Europe dry, continental condi-tions and large differences in annual tempera-tures limit the range of crops that can be grown.However, Central Poland, the Hungarian plainsas well as Southwest Russia and the Ukraine be-long to the potentially most productive areas inEurope (Olesen and Bindi 2002; Maracchi et al.2005).

Climate change impacts

Future climate conditions

In the period 1901–2005, the average annualtemperature rose throughout Europe by 0.9◦C.Mean temperature increase was larger in winterthan in summer (Alcamo et al. 2007). Resultsof global climate models indicate that large cli-matic changes in Europe are likely. The mod-els show strongest warming over Eastern Europeand Northern Europe during winter and overWestern and Southern Europe during summer(see Fig. 3.4.1). Especially in the Southwest-ern parts such as France and the Iberian Penin-sula, increase in average summer temperaturesmay exceed 6◦C by the end of the century (Al-camo et al. 2007). Maximum temperatures willincrease much more in Southern and Central Eu-rope than in Northern Europe. In summer, this ismostly due to higher temperatures on warm days.During winter, warming is due to higher temper-atures on cold days. This will lead to lower vari-ability in winter temperatures. The increase inminimum temperature exceeds the average win-ter warming by a factor of two to three at manylocations (Alcamo et al. 2007).

Precipitation trends vary regionally. In North-ern Europe and most of the Atlantic region, meanwinter precipitation will increase. In the Mediter-ranean area, annual precipitation trends are neg-ative especially in the eastern part. Mean precip-itation per wet day is increasing in most partsof the continent, even in those parts that gener-ally become dryer (Alcamo et al. 2007). Climatemodels indicate an increase in mean annual pre-cipitation in Northern Europe and a decrease inSouthern Europe. Projections of seasonal pre-cipitation patterns vary. It is likely that win-ter precipitation in Western, Northern, and Cen-tral Europe will increase while it will decreaseover the Mediterranean region. Summer pre-cipitation will decrease substantially in South-ern and Central Europe. In Northern Europe, itwill decrease to a smaller degree. During springand autumn precipitation, change is marginal



80 CROP ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE

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Fig. 3.4.1. Projected annual and summer (June, July, August (JJA)) temperature and precipitation change by the 2080s forEurope under the SRES A1B scenario. (Source: Based on Christensen et al. 2007, p. 875.)

(Alcamo et al. 2007). The intensity of dailyprecipitation will increase substantially even inregions where mean precipitation decreases inthe Central and Mediterranean regions (Alcamoet al. 2007).

Heat waves and droughts will occur moreoften due to the combined effect of warmertemperatures and less summer precipitation. Bythe late twenty-first century, the Mediterraneanand even much of Eastern Europe may expe-rience an increase in dry periods. Central Eu-rope could eventually have the same number ofhot days as currently occur in Southern Europe,while in the Mediterranean droughts will startearlier and last longer (Alcamo et al. 2007).

Impacts on European regions

Climate change will have diverse effects on agri-culture. In Southern Europe, impacts are likely tobe negative, while in the North, effects are likelyto be positive. In Central and Western Europe,effects will be small. Several studies indicate alarger yield increase in Northern Europe com-pared with yield reductions in Southern Europeso that yield losses will average out for cereals.Thus, aggregate effects could be slightly positivefor Europe as a whole (e.g., Olesen and Bindi2002; Ewert et al. 2005; Maracchi et al. 2005;Audsley et al. 2006). The different effects of cli-mate change across Europe will be a challengefor European agricultural policy makers because




economic and social problems may arise in someregions while others will benefit (Maracchi et al.2005).

In the Northern regions and in the continentalpart of Europe, warming will extend the length ofthe potential growing season, which allows ear-lier planting and earlier harvesting. Less severewinter temperatures will also allow the growingof more productive cultivars of annual and peren-nial crops (Olesen and Bindi 2002). In addition,crops that are currently only grown in southernregions may also become suitable further north(Audsley et al. 2006). Warm-season crops suchas maize and grapevine may shift northward andinto Central Europe (Olesen and Bindi 2002).Warmer weather will furthermore directly affectthe soil workability, which is one of the limitingfactors of crop distribution in Europe. If soils aretoo wet, tillage can detrimentally compact soils.Drier conditions can therefore increase the num-ber of days when tillage and also harvesting ispossible (Olesen and Bindi 2002).

Changing climate conditions will also expandagricultural areas in the northern countries. Inparticular in Finland, where today crop growingis limited, future climate conditions will be fa-vorable. The agricultural area suitable for cropgrowing may shift northward by 120–150 kmper 1◦C increase in annual mean temperature.Warmer climate conditions will furthermore in-crease yields in the northern countries (Ewertet al. 2005; Audsley et al. 2006). In principle,large areas in Finland could develop intensiveagriculture. However, these areas are currentlyforests, which will come under pressure fromagricultural expansion. Land use decisions willhave to be based on the differences between prof-itability in agriculture and forestry as well as onmore general societal objectives. Large forestedareas are currently protected for environmentalpurposes (Audsley et al. 2006).

In Southern Europe, temperature increases,precipitation decreases as well as increases inclimatic interannual variability, and a higherfrequency of extreme events are to be ex-

pected. These combined changes will lead to ashorter growing season, increased water short-age and heat stress, which will reduce yields,lead to higher yield variability, and probably re-duce the agricultural area of traditional crops(Giannakopoulos et al. 2005; Maracchi et al.2005). In Southern Europe, the most affectedregions will be Spain, Portugal, Italy, and South-western France (Ewert et al. 2005; Audsley et al.2006). In these areas, climate change may largelyreduce yields and thus cause disruptions in therural economy.

Impacts on crop yields

There is a wide range of arable crops in Europedue to different climate conditions. Most impor-tant crops are cereals, which are grown mainlyfor animal feed and human consumption (Olesenand Bindi 2002). Highest wheat yields can befound in continental Europe, where, e.g., Franceobtains about 8 t/ha, while in Southern Europe,especially in Spain and Greece, the highest maizeyields are obtained (Olesen et al. 2007; Reidsmaet al. 2007). Future climate conditions will ex-pand the area of cereal cultivation but at the sametime reduce yields in some southern parts ofEurope.

Wheat is the most important crop in Europe.There are several studies about climate impactson wheat yields and distribution. Yield changesdepend on the effects of higher temperature,changed precipitation pattern, enhanced CO2

concentration, and technology development. Theaggregate effect of climate change is likely to bepositive. However, the magnitude of the yield in-crease will depend on CO2 concentration andtechnology development. According to Ewertet al. (2005), average future wheat yields in Eu-rope are likely to increase from current 6–8 t/hain 2080 for the SRES B2 scenario, and to 15 t/hafor the SRES A1FI scenario. The strong increasein yield in the very high emission scenario A1FIis a result of the expected positive effects of en-hanced CO2 concentration. However, it is still



82 CROP ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE

subject to debate, how strongly the CO2 fertil-ization will materialize under average productionconditions in the field.

There will be yield increases for wheat in theNorthern and Central Europe as well as in parts ofEastern Europe, while in Southern Europe, espe-cially in Southern Spain and Portugal, yields willdecrease (Giannakopoulos et al. 2005; Maracchiet al. 2005; Olesen et al. 2007).

A more detailed study by Maracchi et al.(2005) suggests that the largest yield reductionsof wheat will be in Southern Portugal, SouthernSpain, and the Ukraine by up to 3 t/ha. In otherparts of Southern Europe, like Northern Spain,Southern France, Italy, and Greece, and also inScandinavia, wheat yields may increase by 3–4t/ha. In the rest of Europe, yield increases areestimated to be about 1–3 t/ha.

Maize cultivation is currently limited toSouthern Europe and parts of Central Europe.According to Olesen et al. (2007), a northwardshift of the northern limits of maize suitabil-ity is likely to occur. The extent, however, de-pends on climate scenarios and varies consid-erably. The area suitable for maize is likely toreach Southern England and the Baltic states. ForIreland, the rest of England, Denmark, Finland,and Southern Sweden, future suitability is un-certain (Olesen et al. 2007). Yields will mainlydecrease in the Southern regions and increase inNorthern regions. However, increases are lesssignificant because maize is a C4 plant and,hence, will respond less strongly to enhancedCO2 concentration compared to C3 plants suchas wheat (Maracchi et al. 2005).

A specific adaptation option: Cropinsurance in Spain

Weather risks are a major source of uncertaintyfor farmers, and with changing climate condi-tions in the future, these risks will further in-crease. Especially in countries with high yieldvariability, impacts of climate-related hazardscan destabilize farm income. Crop insuranceschemes can stabilize farm income.

Spain has one of the most developed agricul-tural insurance policies, similar to the UnitedStates and Canada. The Spanish insurancescheme has been expanding during the last25 years, and there is a rich experience in devel-oping new and innovative agricultural insurancesolutions. However, it has received only little at-tention in the literature (Garrido and Zilberman2007).

The Spanish Government collaborates withfarmers’ unions and insurance companies, andthey together establish a pool where all insurancecompanies operate in a coinsurance regime. Pre-miums are subsidized by the Government withup to 49% contribution including regional sub-sidies (Bielza et al. 2007). Furthermore, reinsur-ance is undertaken by the Spanish Government.A public reinsurance company, the “Consorciode Compensacion de Seguros” was established.This public company itself is reinsured by theinternational reinsurance market (Bielza et al.2007).

Today, about 5.85 million hectares are in-sured, and there is a steady growth of the agri-cultural insurance scheme, which covers about30–40% of the eligible production. Farmers canchoose among more than 200 different insurancepolicies that provide coverage to all possiblecrops. For example, cereal farmers can choosebetween three coverage levels, ranging from ba-sic coverage including hailstorm and fire risksto individual yield risks (Garrido and Zilberman2007). Farmers’ participation varies according totheir farming system. About 100% of the eligi-ble farmers on the Canary Islands who grow ba-nanas or tomatoes purchase an insurance, whileless than 5% of the farmers who grow olive treesor potatoes do.

References

Alcamo J, Moreno JM, Novaky B, Bindi M, CorobovR, Devoy RJN, Giannakopoulos C, Martin E, OlesenJE, Shvidenko A (2007) Europe. In: ML Parry, OFCanziani, JP Palutikof, PJ van der Linden, and CE Han-son (eds) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and




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European Commission (2007) The challenge of integratingenvironmental requirements into the common agricul-tural policy. Web site of the European Commissionof agriculture and rural development. Available from:http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/envir/report/en/concl_en/report.htm#Foot3. Accessed March 29, 2011.

Ewert F, Rounsevell MDA, Reginster I, Metzger MJ,Leemans R (2005) Future scenarios of European agricul-tural land use I. Estimating changes in crop productivity.Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 107: 101–116.

Garrido A, Zilberman D (2007) Revisiting the demand ofagricultural insurance: The case of Spain. ConferenceProceeding: 101st EAAE Seminar: Management of Cli-mate Risks in Agriculture, Berlin, July 05–06, 2007.

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Crop Adaptation to Climate Change (Yadav/Crop Adaptation to Climate Change) || Regional Climate Impacts on Agriculture in Europe