Crop Adaptation to Climate Change (Yadav/Crop Adaptation to Climate Change) || Front Matter

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Crop Adaptation to Climate Change

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Crop Adaptation toClimate Change

Edited by

Shyam S. YadavRobert J. ReddenJerry L. HatfieldHermann Lotze-CampenAnthony E. Hall

withManav YadavProject Manager/Communications Coordinator

A John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., Publication

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This edition first published 2011, © 2011 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Crop adaptation to climate change / edited by Shyam S. Yadav . . . [et al.]. – [1st ed.].p. cm.

Includes bibliographical references and index.ISBN 978-0-8138-2016-3 (hardcover : alk. paper)

1. Crops and climate. 2. Crops–Adaptation. 3. Climatic changes. I. Yadav, S. S. (Shyam S.)S600.5.C76 2011632′.1–dc23 2011013791

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Top right cover photo taken by Suvidya Yadav. In photo: Dr. Jens Berger (left), Ecophysiologist CSIRO, WA, Australia andDr. Shyam S. Yadav (right) examining the Chickpea lines planted under the ACIAR-ICAR funded chickpea adaptation fieldtrial at the Merredin Dryland Research Institute in Western Australia, Australia 2002.

1 2011

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Table of Contents

List of Contributors ixList of Editors xviAbout the Editors xviiForeword by Daniel Hillel and Cynthia Rosenzweig xxForeword by M.S. Swaminathan xxiiForeword by Martin Parry xxivForeword by Ahmed Djoghlaf xxvForeword by Cary Fowler xxviiForeword by David K. Skelly xxixForeword by Walter P. Falcon xxxPreface xxxiiAcknowledgments xxxiii

Chapter 1.1: Climate Change, Population Growth, and Crop Production: An Overview 1Hermann Lotze-Campen

Chapter 1.2: Downscaling Global Climatic Predictions to the Regional Level: A Case Studyof Regional Effects of Climate Change on Wheat Crop Production in Victoria,Australia 12Garry O’Leary, Brendan Christy, Anna Weeks, James Nuttall, Penny Riffkin,Craig Beverly, and Glenn Fitzgerald

Chapter 2: Agroecology: Implications for Plant Response to Climate Change 27Jerry L. Hatfield and John H. Prueger

Chapter 3.1: Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Production in Latin America 44Andy Jarvis, Julian Ramirez, Osana Bonilla-Findji, and Emmanuel Zapata

Chapter 3.2: Changing Climate in North America: Implications for Crops 57Jerry L. Hatfield

Chapter 3.3: Regional Impacts of Climate Change: Africa 66Ranjana Bhattacharjee, Bonny R. Ntare, Emmanuel Otoo, and Pius Z. Yanda

Chapter 3.4: Regional Climate Impacts on Agriculture in Europe 78Hermann Lotze-Campen

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Chapter 3.5: Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations in the Countries of the Former SovietUnion 84Andrei Kirilenko and Nikolay Dronin

Chapter 3.6: Climate Change Impact in Agriculture: Vulnerability and AdaptationConcerns of Semiarid Tropics in Asia 107Naveen P. Singh, Ma Cynthia S. Bantilan, A. Ashok Kumar, Pasupuleti Janila, andAbu Wali R. Hassan

Chapter 3.7: Climate Change Impacts in Japan and Southeast Asia: Implications forCrop Adaptation 131Sivapuram V.R.K. Prabhakar

Chapter 3.8: Regional Impacts: Australia 143Mark S. Howden and Steven J. Crimp

Chapter 4: Synthesis of Regional Impacts and Global Agricultural Adjustments 156Neil C. Turner and Rolf Meyer

Chapter 5.1: Impacts of High-Temperature Stress and Potential Opportunities for Breeding 166Rishi P. Singh, P.V. Vara Prasad, Ambrish K. Sharma, and K. Raja Reddy

Chapter 5.2: Responses to Increased Moisture Stress and Extremes: Whole Plant Responseto Drought under Climate Change 186Vincent Vadez, Jana Kholova, Sunita Choudhary, Paul Zindy,Medulline Terrier, Lakshman Krishnamurthy, Pasala Ratna Kumar, andNeil C. Turner

Chapter 6: Plant Responses to Increased Carbon Dioxide 198S. Seneweera and R.M. Norton

Chapter 7: Genetics Options for Improving the Productivity of Wheat in Water-Limitedand Temperature-Stressed Environments 218R.M. Trethowan and T. Mahmood

Chapter 8: Genetic Adjustment to Changing Climates: Pea 238Clarice J. Coyne, Rebecca J. McGee, Robert J. Redden, Mike J. Ambrose,Bonnie J. Furman, and Carol A. Miles

Chapter 9: Genetic Adjustment to Changing Climates: Chickpea 251Muhammad Imtiaz, Rajinder S. Malhotra, and Shyam S. Yadav

Chapter 10: Genetic Adjustment to Changing Climates: faba bean 269Gerard Duc, Wolfgang Link, Pascal Marget, Robert J. Redden,Frederick L. Stoddard, Ana MariaTorres, and Jose I. Cubero

Chapter 11: Adaptation of the Potato Crop to Changing Climates 287Roland Schafleitner, Julian Ramirez, Andy Jarvis, Daniele Evers,Raymundo Gutierrez, and Mariah Scurrah



TABLE OF CONTENTS vii

Chapter 12: Genetic Adjustment to Changing Climates: Rice 298Tanguy Lafarge, Shaobing Peng, Toshihiro Hasegawa, William P. Quick, S.V.Krishna Jagadish, and Reiner Wassmann

Chapter 13: Genetic Adjustment to Changing Climates: Maize 314Mark E. Westgate and Jerry L. Hatfield

Chapter 14: Sorghum Genetic Enhancement for Climate Change Adaptation 326Belum V.S. Reddy, A. Ashok Kumar, Sampangiramireddy Ramesh, andPulluru S. Reddy

Chapter 15: Breeding Cowpea for Future Climates 340Anthony E. Hall

Chapter 16: Genetic Improvement of Common Beans and the Challengesof Climate Change 356Stephen Beebe, Julian Ramirez, Andy Jarvis, Idupulapati M. Rao,Gloria Mosquera, Juan M. Bueno, and Matthew W. Blair

Chapter 17: Improving Soybean Cultivars for Adaptation to Climate Change andClimate Variability 370Kenneth J. Boote

Chapter 18: Genetic Adjustment to Changing Climates: Vegetables 396Robert C. de la Pena, Andreas W. Ebert, Paul A. Gniffke, Peter Hanson, andRachael C. Symonds

Chapter 19: Adaptation of Cassava to Changing Climates 411Hernan Ceballos, Julian Ramirez, Anthony C. Bellotti, Andy Jarvis, andElizabeth Alvarez

Chapter 20: Changing Climates: Effects on Growing Conditions for Banana and Plantain(Musa spp.) and Possible Responses 426Julian Ramirez, Andy Jarvis, Inge Van den Bergh, Charles Staver, andDavid Turner

Chapter 21: Genetic Adjustment to Changing Climates: Sugarcane 439Geoff Inman-Bamber, Phillip Jackson, and Maryse Bourgault

Chapter 22: Breeding Oilseed Brassica for Climate Change 448Phillip A. Salisbury and Martin J. Barbetti

Chapter 23: The Genetic Envelope of Winegrape Vines: Potential for Adaptation to FutureClimate Challenges 464Leanne B. Webb, Peter R. Clingeleffer, and Stephen D. Tyerman

Chapter 24: The Potential of Climate Change Adjustment in Crops: A Synthesis 482Robert J. Redden, Shyam S. Yadav, Jerry L. Hatfield, Boddupalli M. Prasanna,Surinder K. Vasal, and Tanguy Lafarge



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Chapter 25: Crop Germplasm Diversity: The Role of Gene Bank Collections in FacilitatingAdaptation to Climate Change 495Laura K. Snook, M. Ehsan Dulloo, Andy Jarvis, Xavier Scheldeman, andMargaret Kneller

Chapter 26: Underutilized Species and Climate Change: Current Status and Outlook 507Stefano Padulosi, Vernon Heywood, Danny Hunter, and Andy Jarvis

Chapter 27: Wild Relative and Transgenic Innovation for Enhancing Crop Adaptationto Warmer and Drier Climate 522Gang-Ping Xue and C. Lynne McIntyre

Chapter 28: Energy Crops to Combat Climate Change 546Abdullah A. Jaradat

Chapter 29: Research from the Past to the Future 556EC (Ted) Wolfe

Index 571


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List of Contributors

Elizabeth AlvarezInternational Center for Tropical Agriculture(CIAT)AA 6713, Km 17 recta Cali-Palmira, Cali,Colombia

Mike J. AmbroseJohn Innes CentreColney, Norwich, NR4 7UH, UK

Ma Cynthia S. BantilanInternational Crops Research Institute for theSemi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)Patancheru 502324, Andhra Pradesh, India

Martin J. BarbettiSchool of Plant Biology and UWA Institute ofAgricultureThe University of Western Australia35 Stirling HwyCrawley, W.A. 6009, Australia

Stephen BeebeInternational Center for Tropical Agriculture(CIAT)AA 6713, Km 17 recta Cali-Palmira, Cali,Colombia

Anthony C. BellottiInternational Center for Tropical Agriculture(CIAT)AA 6713, Km 17 recta Cali-Palmira, Cali,Colombia

Craig BeverlyDepartment of Primary IndustriesRutherglen, Victoria 3685, Australia

Ranjana BhattacharjeeInternational Institute of Tropical AgricultureIbadan, PMB 5320, Nigeria

Matthew W. BlairInternational Center for Tropical Agriculture(CIAT)AA 6713, Km 17 recta Cali-Palmira, Cali,Colombia

Osana Bonilla-FindjiInternational Center for Tropical Agriculture(CIAT)AA 6713, Km 17 recta Cali-Palmira, Cali,Colombia

CGIAR Research Program on Climate ChangeAgriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)

Kenneth J. BooteUniversity of FloridaAgronomy DepartmentGainesville, FL 32611United States of America

Maryse BourgaultCSIRO Plant IndustryQBP, University of QueenslandBrisbane, Queensland, Australia

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x LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS

Juan M. BuenoInternational Center for Tropical Agriculture(CIAT)AA 6713, Km 17 recta Cali-Palmira, Cali,Colombia

Hernan CeballosInternational Center for Tropical Agriculture(CIAT)AA 6713, Km 17 recta Cali-Palmira, Cali,Colombia

Sunita ChoudharyInternational Crops Research Institute for theSemi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)Patancheru 502324, Andhra Pradesh, India

Brendan ChristyDepartment of Primary IndustriesRutherglen, Victoria 3685, Australia

Peter R. ClingelefferCSIRO Plant IndustryWaite campus, P.O. Box 350Glen Osmond, South Australia, 5064, Australia

Clarice J. CoyneUSDA Agricultural Research ServicePlant Introduction Unit, 59 Johnson HallWashington State University, Pullman, WA99164-6402United States of America

Steven J. CrimpCSIRO Climate Adaptation FlagshipGPO Box 284, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia

Jose I. CuberoDepartamento de Genetica, Universidad deCordoba, Campus de Rabanales,edificio C5, 14071 Cordoba, Spain

Robert C. de la PenaMonsanto Company, Vegetable Seeds Division06-08 New Tech Park, 151 Lorong Chuan,Singapore 556741

Nikolay DroninSchool of GeographyMoscow State UniversityMoscow, Russia

Gerard DucINRA Institut National de la RechercheAgronomique, UMR 102,Genetique et Ecophysiologie des Legumineusesa Graines, BP 86510,21065 DIJON cedex, France

M. Ehsan DullooBioversity InternationalMaccarese (Rome), Italy

Andreas W. EbertAVRDC—The World Vegetable CenterP.O. Box 42, Shanhua, Tainan 74199, Taiwan

Daniele EversCRP—Gabriel Lippmann41, Rue du Brill, L-4422 Belvaux, Luxembourg

Glenn FitzgeraldDepartment of Primary IndustriesHorsham, Victoria 3400, Australia

Bonnie J. FurmanUSDA Agricultural Research ServiceArctic and Subarctic Plant Genetic Resources533 E. Fireweed Avenue, Palmer, AK 99645United States of America

As of July 1, 2010:International Maize and Wheat ImprovementCenter (CIMMYT) Apdo. Postal 6-641, 06600Mexico, DF MEXICO

Paul A. GniffkeAVRDC—The World Vegetable CenterP.O. Box 42, Shanhua, Tainan 74199, Taiwan

Raymundo GutierrezInternational Potato Center (CIP)Apartado 1558, La Molina, Lima 12, Peru



LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS xi

Anthony E. HallDepartment of Botany and Plant SciencesUniversity of CaliforniaRiverside, CA 92521-0124United States of America

Peter HansonAVRDC—The World Vegetable CenterP.O. Box 42, Shanhua, Tainan 74199, Taiwan

Jerry L. HatfieldUSDA-ARSNational Laboratory for Agriculture and theEnvironment2110 University Blvd.Ames, IA 50011United States of America

Toshihiro HasegawaNational Institute for Agro-environmentalSciences, Tsukuba, Japan

Abu Wali R. HassanDepartment of Agricultural ExtensionKhamarbari, Farmgate, Dhaka-1215,Bangladesh

Vernon HeywoodUniversity of ReadingReading, UK

Mark S. HowdenChief Research ScientistTheme Leader, Adaptive Primary Industries andEnterprisesCSIRO Climate Adaptation FlagshipGPO Box 284, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia

Honorary Professor:School of Land and EnvironmentThe University of MelbourneVictoria 3010, Australia

Danny HunterBioversity InternationalVia dei Tre Denari472/a, 00057 Maccarese, Rome, Italy

Muhammad ImtiazInternational Center for Agricultural Researchin the Dry Areas (ICARDA)P.O. Box 5466, Aleppo, Syria

Geoff Inman-BamberCSIRO Plant Industry, ATSIPJames Cook UniversityTownsville, Queensland, Australia

CSIRO, Climate Adaptation FlagshipGPO Box 284, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia

Phillip JacksonCSIRO Plant IndustryATSIP, James Cook UniversityTownsville, Queensland, Australia

S.V. Krishna JagadishInternational Rice Research InstituteManila, Philippines

Pasupuleti JanilaInternational Crops Research Institute for theSemi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)Patancheru 502324, Andhra Pradesh, India

Abdullah A. JaradatUSDA-Agricultural Research Service, andDepartment of Agronomy and Plant GeneticsUniversity of Minnesota, 803 Iowa Avenue,Morris, MN 56267United States of America

Andy JarvisInternational Center for Tropical Agriculture(CIAT)AA 6713, Km 17 recta Cali-Palmira, Cali,ColombiaCGIAR Research Program on Climate ChangeAgriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)

Jana KholovaInternational Crops Research Institute for theSemi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)Patancheru 502324, Andhra Pradesh, India



xii LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS

Andrei KirilenkoDepartment of Earth System Science and PolicyUniversity of North DakotaGrand Forks, ND 58202-9011United States of America

Margaret KnellerConsultant, Bioversity International;John Cabot UniversityItaly

Lakshman KrishnamurthyInternational Crops Research Institute for theSemi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)Patancheru 502324, Andhra Pradesh, India

A. Ashok KumarInternational Crops Research Institute for theSemi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)Patancheru 502324, Andhra Pradesh, India

Pasala Ratna KumarInternational Crops Research Institute for theSemi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)Patancheru 502324, Andhra Pradesh, India

Tanguy LafargeCIRAD, UMR AGAP, F-34398 Montpellier,FranceIRRI, CESD, Los Banos, The Philippines

Wolfgang LinkDepartment of Crop Sciences,University of GottingenVon Siebold 8, D-37075 Gottingen, Germany

Hermann Lotze-CampenPotsdam Institute for Climate ImpactResearch (PIK)P.O. Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany

T. MahmoodPlant Breeding InstituteThe University of SydneyCobbitty NSW 2570Australia

Rajinder S. MalhotraInternational Center for Agricultural Researchin the Dry Areas (ICARDA)P.O. Box 5466, Aleppo, Syria

Pascal MargetINRA Institut National de la RechercheAgronomique, UMR 102,Genetique et Ecophysiologie des Legumineusesa Graines,BP 86510, 21065 DIJON cedex, France

Rebecca J. McGeeUSDA Agricultural Research ServiceGrain Legume Genetics and Physiology Unit303 Johnson Hall, Washington State UniversityPullman, WA 99164-6434United States of America

C. Lynne McIntyreCSIRO Plant Industry306 Carmody Road, St LuciaBrisbane, Qld 4067, Australia

Rolf MeyerInstitute for Technology Assessment andSystems Analysis (ITAS)Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)Hermann-von-Helmholtz-Platz 176344 Eggenstein-LeopoldshafenGermany

Carol A. MilesWashington State University, NorthwestResearch and Extension Center, 16650 StateRoute 536, Mount VernonWA 98273United States of America

Gloria MosqueraInternational Center for Tropical Agriculture(CIAT)AA 6713, Km 17 recta Cali-Palmira, Cali,Colombia

R.M. NortonInternational Plant Nutrition Institute54 Florence St, Horsham, Victoria 3400,Australia



LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS xiii

Bonny R. NtareInternational Crops Research Institute for theSemi-Arid TropicsBP 320, Bamako, Mali

James NuttallDepartment of Primary Industries, Rutherglen,Victoria 3685, Australia

Garry O’ LearyDepartment of Primary IndustriesHorsham, Victoria 3400, Australia

Emmanuel OtooNational Best Agriculture Research CSIR-CRIP.O. Box 3785, Kumasi, Ghana

Stefano PadulosiBioversity InternationalVia dei Tre Denari472/a, 00057 MaccareseRome, Italy

Shaobing PengCrop Physiology and Production Center (CPPC)College of Plant Science and TechnologyHuazhong Agricultural UniversityWuhan, Hubei 430070P.R. China

Sivapuram V.R.K. PrabhakarSenior Policy ResearcherInstitute for Global Environmental StrategiesHayama, Kanagawa, Japan 240-0115

P.V. Vara PrasadDepartment of AgronomyKansas State UniversityManhattan, KS 66506United States of America

Boddupalli M. PrasannaCIMMYT (International Maize and WheatImprovement Center)CIMMYT-Kenya, ICRAF House, UnitedNations Avenue, GigiriP.O. Box 1041, Village Market, 00621 Nairobi,Kenya

John H. PruegerUSDA-ARSNational Laboratory for Agriculture and theEnvironment2110 University Blvd.Ames, IA 50011United States of America

William P. QuickAnimal and Plant SciencesThe University of SheffieldWestern BankSheffield S10 2TN, UK

Sampangiramireddy RameshUniversity of Agricultural SciencesGKVK, Bangalore 560065, India

Julian RamirezInternational Center for Tropical Agriculture(CIAT)AA 6713, Km 17 recta Cali-Palmira, Cali,Colombia

CGIAR Research Program on Climate ChangeAgriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)School of Earth and Environment University ofLeeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK

Idupulapati M. RaoInternational Center for Tropical Agriculture(CIAT)AA 6713, Km 17 recta Cali-Palmira, Cali,Colombia

Robert J. ReddenAustralian Temperate Field Crops CollectionGrains Innovation ParkThe Department of Primary IndustriesPrivate Bag 260, HorshamVictoria 3401, Australia

Belum V.S. ReddyInternational Crops Research Institute for theSemi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)Patancheru 502324, Andhra Pradesh, India



xiv LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS

K. Raja ReddyDepartment of Plant and Soil SciencesMississippi State UniversityMississippi State 39762United States of America

Pulluru S. ReddyDirectorate of Sorghum ResearchRajendranagar, Hyderabad, 500036,Andhra Pradesh, India

Penny RiffkinDepartment of Primary IndustriesHamilton, Victoria 3300, Australia

Phillip A. SalisburyMelbourne School of Land and Environment,University of MelbourneVictoria 3010 AustraliaDepartment of Primary Industries VictoriaVABC, 1 Park Drive, La Trobe R & D ParkBundoora, Victoria 3083, Australia

Roland SchafleitnerInternational Potato Center (CIP)Current affiliation:AVRDC—The World Vegetable CenterP.O. Box 42, Shanhua, Tainan 74199 Taiwan

Xavier ScheldemanBioversity InternationalColombia

Mariah ScurrahInternational Potato Center (CIP)Apartado 1558, La MolinaLima 12, Peru

S. SeneweeraDepartment of Agriculture and Food SystemsMelbourne School of Land and EnvironmentThe University of MelbournePrivate Bag 260, HorshamVictoria 3400, Australia

Ambrish K. SharmaIndian Agricultural Research InstituteDivision of Plant Physiology/GeneticsNew Delhi 110012, India

Naveen P. SinghInternational Crops Research Institute for theSemi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)Patancheru 502324, Andhra Pradesh, India

Rishi P. SinghBirsa Agricultural UniversityDirectorate of Farm and Seed ProductionRanchi 834006, Jharkhand, India

Laura K. SnookBioversity InternationalMaccarese, Rome, Italy

Charles StaverBioversity InternationalParc Scientifique Agropolis II34397 Montpellier Cedex 5, France

Frederick L. StoddardDepartment of Agricultural SciencesP.O. Box 27 (Latokartanonkaari 5)FIN-00014 University of Helsinki, Finland.

Rachael C. SymondsAVRDC—The World Vegetable CenterP.O. Box 42, Shanhua, Tainan 74199, Taiwan

Medulline TerrierInternational Crops Research Institute for theSemi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)Patancheru 502324, Andhra Pradesh, India

Ana M. TorresIFAPA, Centro Alameda de Obispo,Area de Mejora y Biotecnologia,Apdo. 3092, E-14080 Cordoba, Spain

R.M. TrethowanPlant Breeding InstituteThe University of SydneyCobbitty NSW 2570Australia



LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS xv

David TurnerSchool of Plant BiologyFaculty of Natural and Agricultural SciencesThe University of Western AustraliaCrawley WA 6009, Australia

Neil C. TurnerCentre for Legumes in MediterraneanAgriculture, M080, and UWA Institute ofAgricultureThe University of Western Australia35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA 6009,Australia

Stephen D. TyermanSchool of Agriculture Food and WineThe University of AdelaideWaite Campus, Private Mail Bag 1Glen Osmond, South Australia, 5064, Australia

Inge Van den BerghBioversity International,Parc Scientifique Agropolis II,34397 Montpellier Cedex 5, France

Vincent VadezInternational Crops Research Institute for theSemi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)Patancheru 502324, Andhra Pradesh, India

Surinder K. VasalCIMMYT, Mexico

Reiner WassmannKarlsruhe Institute of Technology/ IMK-IFUGarmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany

Leanne B. WebbMelbourne School of Land and EnvironmentUniversity of MelbourneC/- CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric ResearchPMB 1, Aspendale, Victoria, 3195, Australia

Anna WeeksDepartment of Primary IndustriesRutherglen, Victoria 3685, Australia

Mark E. WestgateDepartment of AgronomyIowa State UniversityAmes, IA 50011United States of America

EC (Ted) WolfeEH Graham Centre for Agricultural Innovation(Charles Sturt University and NSW Departmentof Primary Industries), Wagga Wagga, NSW2678 Australia

Gang-Ping XueCSIRO Plant Industry, 306 Carmody RoadSt Lucia, Brisbane, Qld 4067, Australia

Shyam S. YadavInternational Advisor in Agriculture—CapacityDevelopmentCivilian Technical Assistance Program,General Directorate of Programs,Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation & Livestock,Government of Islamic Republic of AfghanistanKabul, Afghanistan

Pius Z. YandaInstitute of Resource Assessment,University of Dar es SalaamP.O. Box 35097, Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania

Emmanuel ZapataInternational Center for Tropical Agriculture(CIAT)AA 6713, Km 17 recta Cali-Palmira, Cali,Colombia

Paul ZindyInternational Crops Research Institute for theSemi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)Patancheru 502324, Andhra Pradesh, India



List of Editors

Shyam S. YadavInternational Advisor in Agriculture—CapacityDevelopmentCivilian Technical Assistance Program,General Directorate of Programs,Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation & Livestock,Government of Islamic Republic of AfghanistanKabul, Afghanistan

Robert J. ReddenAustralian Temperate Field Crops CollectionGrains Innovation ParkDepartment of Primary IndustriesPrivate Bag 260Horsham, VIC, 3401, Australia

Jerry L. HatfieldUSDA-ARSNational Laboratory for Agriculture and theEnvironment2110 University Blvd.Ames, IA 50011United States of America

Hermann Lotze-CampenPotsdam Institute for Climate ImpactResearch (PIK)P.O. Box 60120314412 Potsdam, Germany

Anthony E. HallDepartment of Botany and Plant SciencesUniversity of CaliforniaRiverside, CA 92521-0124United States of America

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About the Editors

Shyam S. Yadav, PhDDr Shyam S. Yadav is an InternationalAdvisor—Capacity Development in Agricul-ture at Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation &Livestock, Government of Islamic Republic ofAfghanistan, Kabul, Afghanistan. He receivedhis PhD in Genetics & Plant Breeding from In-dian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), NewDelhi, India. He started his professional careeras Research Associate/Assistant Wheat Breederwith main responsibility to introgress the Mexi-can dwarf wheat varieties and tall Indian wheatvarieties, to develop new high-yielding semid-warf cultivars in wheat breeding program at Di-vision of Genetics, IARI, New Delhi, India, from1969–1974. He then worked as an agriculturespecialist with the Government of Iraq from 1974to 1979 to assist in the development and dissemi-nation of crop production and management tech-nology program. On returning back to India in1979, Dr Yadav joined the Chickpea BreedingProgram at Indian Agricultural Research Insti-tute, New Delhi, India, with the responsibility ofdeveloping and focusing the program on widehybridization and introgression in chickpea todevelop high-yielding, widely adapted, multipleresistant and quality cultivars.

Under his leadership, the chickpea breedingteam developed excellent material of both Kabuliand desi types. As a Program Leader of chick-pea breeding team at IARI, he was successfulin developing and releasing more than 20 high-yielding, widely adapted commercial chickpea

varieties for different planting environments ofIndia from 1988–2006. Some of India’s pio-neering and foremost chickpea varieties, namely,Pusa kabuli 1053, 1088, 1108, 2024, and PusaDesi 362, 372, and 1103 were developed andreleased by him. Simultaneously, he also devel-oped many unique germplasm lines that are beingused in various national crop improvement pro-grams by various chickpea breeders nationallyand internationally. Dr Yadav has also guidedmany postgraduates students in the discipline ofplant breeding on breeding approaches, method-ologies, and techniques from 1990 to 2008. DrYadav served as Principal Investigator for vari-ous national and international research projectswith Indian, Australian, and American researchorganizations during 1998–2006.

In 2002, he worked as International LegumesConsultant with the Food and Agriculture Orga-nization (FAO) of United Nations in Myanmar.In 2007, he worked as International TechnicalExpert on standardization of quality products offruit and vegetable crops for international mar-keting with United Nations Development Pro-gram (UNDP), Saana, Yemen. Later on in thesame year of 2007, he was employed as ChiefScientist by Krishidhan Seeds Pvt. Ltd., Maha-rashtra, India. Then in 2008, he was employed asChief Scientist and later on as Program Leaderof Rice & Grains Program at National Agricul-tural Research Institute, Lae, Papua New Guinea.Thus, Dr Yadav has a wide working experienceas an agriculture scientist, consultant, and expert

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xviii ABOUT THE EDITORS

in different countries across the continents rang-ing from Australia, United States, Asia, and thePacific Region.

His primary interest of research has been fo-cused on plant breeding, development of inte-grated crop production and management tech-nologies and their dissemination at village levelsin diversified ecologies, mentoring and coachingof graduate and post graduate students, agricul-tural personnel, NGOs, and different stakehold-ers. In his current position, Dr Yadav is responsi-ble for capacity development in the agriculturalsector on issues of infrastructure development,administration and management of project plan-ning, management and implementation relatedissues, and development and dissemination ofproduction technologies. He is also responsiblefor training of agricultural workers on varioustechnological aspects, which include scientists,extensionists, trainers, farmers, and stakeholdersunder conflicting environments.

He has published more than 125 research ar-ticles in various national and international jour-nals. He is a Fellow of the Indian Society ofGenetics and Plant Breeding, Indian Society ofPulses Research and Development, and The Lin-nean Society of London, UK. The current bookon Crop Adaptation to Climate Change is DrYadav’s fourth book as Chief Editor; prior tothis he has edited Chickpea Breeding and Man-agement, CABI, UK, 2007; Lentils: An AncientCrop of Modern Times, Springer, The Nether-lands, 2007; and Climate Change and Man-agement of Cool Season Grain Legume Crops,Springer, The Netherlands, 2010.

Robert J. Redden, PhDDr Robert J. Redden completed a PhD in plantbreeding and genetics at Cornell University,United States, in 1972. He was a postdoctoralfellow in the CIMMYT wheat breeding pro-gram from 1972 to 1974 with responsibility forintrogression of spring wheat traits into win-ter wheat. He was a wheat specialist with IITANigeria 1975–1977 to assist with introduction ofMexican wheat into the national wheat program.

Dr Redden transferred to the grain legume pro-gram at IITA headquarters in Ibadan for the pe-riod 1977–1981 with responsibility for the inter-national cowpea breeding program.

Dr Redden was a breeder of Phaseolus forgrain in Australia 1982–2000, mainly for smallwhite “navy beans” and also lima and adzukibeans.

From 2001 to present, Dr Redden has beencurator of the Australian Temperate Field CropsCollection, with responsibilities for cool seasonlegume germplasm of pea, lentil, chickpea, fababean and vetch, and for Brassica oilseeds.

Dr Redden has been an author for over 50refereed articles over topics from biometrics, ge-netics, plant breeding, entomology, plant pathol-ogy, food science, and genetic resources. He hasbeen a coeditor with Dr Yadav for publication ofbooks on Chickpea Management and on ClimateChange effects on Cool Season Grain Legumes,and has contributed chapters to books on lentiland on Genetic Resources of Grain Legumes.

Dr Redden has been a guest speaker atlegume/climate change workshops with CIAT inboth Tanzania and Cali.

In 2008, Dr Redden received the YunnanFriendship Award for his leadership of twoACIAR legume projects with China.

Jerry L. Hatfield, PhDDr Jerry L. Hatfield is the Laboratory Direc-tor of the USDA-ARS National Laboratory forAgriculture and the Environment in Ames, Iowa.He received his PhD from Iowa State Univer-sity in 1975 in the area of Agricultural Cli-matology and Statistics, an MS in Agronomyfrom the University of Kentucky in 1972, andBS from Kansas State University in Agronomyin 1971. He served on the faculty of the Uni-versity of California-Davis as a biometeorolo-gist from 1975 through 1983 and then joinedUSDA-Agricultural Research Service in Lub-bock, Texas, as the Research Leader of the PlantStress and Water Conservation Research Unitfrom 1983 through 1989. He was appointedLaboratory Director of the National Soil Tilth



ABOUT THE EDITORS xix

Laboratory in 1989 that was renamed to the Na-tional Laboratory for Agriculture and the En-vironment in 2009. His personal research fo-cuses on quantifying the interactions among thecomponents of the soil–plant–atmosphere sys-tem to quantify resilience of cropping systemsto climate change. He is the lead author on theAgriculture section of the Synthesis and Assess-ment Product 4.3 on “The Effects of ClimateChange on Agriculture, Land Resources, Wa-ter Resources, and Biodiversity” a member ofthe IPCC process that received the 2007 NobelPeace Prize, and contributing author on “Agricul-ture” for the State of the Knowledge Report on“Global Climate Change Impacts in the UnitedStates and Lead Author on an IPCC Special re-port on the Effects of Climate Extremes. He isa Fellow of the American Society of Agronomy,Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Sci-ence Society of America and Past-President ofthe American Society of Agronomy. He is the re-cipient of numerous awards including the USDASuperior Service Award in 1997, the ArthurS. Flemming award for Outstanding Service tothe Federal Government in 1997 along with theDistinguished Service Award, Kansas State Uni-versity in 2002. He is the author or coauthor of377 refereed publications and the editor of13 monographs.

Hermann Lotze-Campen, PhDDr Hermann Lotze-Campen studied Agricul-tural Sciences and Agricultural Economics inKiel (Germany), Reading (United Kingdom),and Minnesota (United States). He holds a PhDin Agricultural Economics from Humboldt Uni-versity, Berlin. In a previous position at Astrium/InfoTerra, a European space company, he has de-veloped applications of satellite remote sensinginformation for agricultural statistics and large-scale modeling, precision farming, and forestry.At the Potsdam Institute for Climate ImpactResearch, Dr Lotze-Campen is leading a re-search group on the interactions between climatechange, agriculture and food production, landand water use, and adaptation options through

biomass energy production and technologicalchange.

Anthony E. Hall, PhDDr Anthony E. Hall is a Professor Emeritus at theUniversity of California, Riverside. He receivedhis PhD from the University of California, Davis,in 1970. He had a joint appointment as a profes-sor at the University of California, Riverside, anda Crop Ecologist in the California AgriculturalExperiment Station from 1971 to 2003. His re-search involved enhancing agriculture in Califor-nia and semiarid zones of Africa by developingimproved crop varieties and management meth-ods for irrigated and rain-fed production. He leda program that bred five varieties of cowpeasthat are being grown in several African coun-tries and have heat tolerance, drought adaptation,and resistance to various pests, and diseases. Hecollaborated in breeding two cowpea varietiesfor California that have heat tolerance and resis-tance to various pests and diseases. He authoredthe chapter in the Web site www.plantstress.comthat reviews breeding for heat tolerance. He isthe lead author of the review of Crop Breed-ing Strategies for the 21st Century in the bookon Climate Change and Global Crop Produc-tivity that was published in 2000. He is a Fel-low of the Crop Science Society of America andthe American Society of Agronomy. In 2000, hereceived the USAID/BIFAD Chair’s Award forScientific Excellence “For outstanding researchon plant responses to environmental stresses andplant breeding, and advising and collaboratingwith African scientists; thus contributing signifi-cantly to the development and extension of cow-pea varieties that have provided millions of poorpeople with more food.” In 2001, he received theUSDA Secretary’s Honor Award. He is the au-thor or coauthor of 115 refereed journal articlesand 44 monographs. He has served as an editorfor the journals Irrigation Science, Crop Scienceand Field Crops Research, and for four scien-tific books. He is the author of the book CropResponses to Environment that was publishedin 2001.



ForewordDaniel Hillel and Cynthia Rosenzweig

A major task of our time is to ensure adequatefood supplies for the world’s current popula-tion (now nearing 7 billion) in a sustainable waywhile protecting the vital functions and biologi-cal diversity of the global environment. The taskof providing for a growing population is likelyto be even more difficult in view of actual andpotential changes in climatic conditions due toglobal warming, and as the population contin-ues to grow. Current projections suggest that theworld’s temperatures will rise 1.8–4.0◦C by 2100and population may reach 8 billion by the year2025 and some 9 billion by mid-century, afterwhich it may stabilize. This book addresses thesecritical issues by presenting the science needednot only to understand climate change effects oncrops but also to adapt current agricultural sys-tems, particularly in regard to genetics, to thechanging conditions.

The natural “greenhouse effect” makes thetemperature regime of some regions more hos-pitable to life forms than it would be otherwise.However, the progressive rise in concentrationsof some atmospheric gases due to human activity(starting with the Industrial Revolution and ac-celerating during the most recent decades) posesthe danger of excessive global warming. Thatrise is due mainly to combustion of fossil fu-els (especially coal and petroleum), to clearing(often burning) of natural vegetation, and to en-hanced decomposition of organic matter in cul-tivated soils. The primary culprit gases emittedare CO2, CH4, and N2O. The accumulation ofCO2 has changed from the preindustrial value of

280 parts per million (ppm) to a level approach-ing 400 ppm—indeed a 40% rise!

Unless the emissions of greenhouse gasesare curbed significantly, their concentrations willcontinue to rise, leading to changes in tempera-ture and precipitation and other climate variablesthat will undoubtedly affect agriculture aroundthe world. Changes in temperature to date havealready begun to affect crops and farmers, withearlier spring growing seasons in Europe andNorth America, for example. These effects areprojected to increase as climate continues tochange.

Even though long-term projections suggestthat temperatures will increase gradually, po-tential changes in climate variability—for in-stance, variations in the patterns of temperatureand rainfall—can have profound impacts on foodsecurity. In near-term decades, higher CO2 mayprovide some benefits to plant growth and wateruse, but these are likely to be offset by negativeeffects of rising temperatures and altered rainfallin the later decades of this century. Such impactsand their interactions will have region-specificand global effects on agricultural systems. Thechapters in this book contribute to the under-standing of the impacts of climate change vari-ables and their progressive interactions that iscritical to developing agricultural systems thatwill enhance productivity even in a changingclimate.

The chapters included in this book are dedi-cated to the task of assessing the vulnerability ofagriculture and adapting it to changing climatic

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FOREWORD xxi

conditions in the major agricultural regions ofthe world. Since the greater part of the projectedpopulation growth is expected take place in theless developed countries of Africa, as well asin parts of Asia and South America, and sinceclimate change impacts are also projected to bemore severe in low-latitude zones where manyof the less-developed regions lie, the regionalcoverage of the volume provides much-neededinformation. An important criterion in futureagriculture will be the selection of crops bestadapted to the changing conditions, and theiroptimal management on a sustainable basis, inthe diverse conditions in which agriculture ispracticed.

As climate changes and populations continueto grow, production of food must increase bya commensurate amount just to maintain presentnutritional levels, and by more than that if the dietin currently deficient regions is to be improved.The necessary improvement is not merely quan-titative (i.e., measured in per capita consump-tion of calories, generally derived from starchygrain, tuber, or root crops). It should be quali-tative as well (i.e., based on higher nutritionalstandards, likely to include the greater consump-tion of animal-derived protein). Advanced cropbreeding that enhances genetics, environment,and management interactions as well as nutri-

tion, as described in this book, is critical todeveloping the crop varieties needed to satisfythese multiple requirements.

Thus, the agricultural sector faces the sig-nificant challenge of increasing production toprovide food security for the projected humanpopulation of 9 billion by mid-century, whileprotecting the environment and the functioningof its ecosystems. Therefore, scientists need todevelop practices to mitigate climate change andadapt agriculture to the portending changes (tothe extent that they cannot be avoided), so as toensure adequate and nutritious production, alongwith protection of natural resources. The chap-ters in this book contribute to these crucial tasks.

Dr. Daniel HillelSenior Research Scientist

NASA-Goddard Institute for Space StudiesColumbia University

2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA

Dr. Cynthia RosenzweigSenior Research Scientist

NASA-Goddard Institute for Space StudiesColumbia University

2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA



ForewordM.S. Swaminathan

It is now widely accepted that climate changewill be one of the greatest threats to sustainablefood security. For example in India, even a 1◦Crise in mean temperature will result in the lossof about 7 million tons of wheat. Sub-SaharanAfrica and South Asia could be the regions thatare worst affected by global warming. There isalready an unacceptable prevalence of malnutri-tion, with FAO estimating that nearly 1 billionchildren, women, and men go to bed hungry ev-ery night. It is in this context that the presentbook by Dr Shyam S. Yadav and his colleaguesis a very timely one.

Methods of mitigation and adaptation willhave to .be standardized for every agroecologicalregion. Agriculture can make a major contribu-tion to mitigation through enhanced carbon se-questration and the building of soil carbon banks.Adaptation measures will vary according to theclimatic characteristics of different ecosystems.

Therefore, it will be prudent to establish aClimate Risk Management Research and Ex-tention Center in each agroclimatic zone. Suchcenters could develop drought, flood, and goodweather codes in order to enable the local popula-tion to maximize the benefits of normal weatherand minimize the adverse impact of unfavorablechanges in temperature, precipitation, and sealevel. Drought, flood, and good weather codes

will have to be developed for each area indicat-ing the steps we should take to minimize damageand maximize benefits.

Fundamental changes will be needed inbreeding strategies. Both anticipatory and par-ticipatory research will have to receive muchgreater attention. Prebreeding centers that willhelp to develop novel genetic combinations fortolerance to biotic and abiotic stresses have tobe established. Such prebreeding centers couldtake up participatory breeding work with farmfamilies in order to combine genetic efficiencywith genetic diversity.

Seawater farming is another area that needsattention since seawater constitutes nearly 97%of global water resources. An efficient method ofconverting seawater into freshwater is throughthe medium of halophytes. At MSSRF, Chen-nai, India, a Genetic Garden of Halophytes isbeing developed. Scientists of MSSRF have alsotransferred genes for seawater tolerance and fordrought resistance from the mangrove Avicciniamarina and the fast growing and drought-tolerantshrub Prosopis juliflora. There are uncommonopportunities now for transferring genes acrosssexual barriers. In crops like wheat, which aresensitive to night temperature, we should shiftthe emphasis in breeding from per-crop to per-day productivity.

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FOREWORD xxiii

The book Crop Adaptation to Climate Changecontains an extensive range of valuable papers.They will provide a road map for shaping ouragricultural future in an era of climate change.I congratulate and thank Dr Shyam S. Yadav,Robert J. Redden, Jerry Hatfield, HermannLotze-Campen, and Anthony E. Hall for thistimely contribution. I hope it will be read widely

by all interested in promoting climate-resilientfarming methods.

M.S. SwaminathanFather of the Green Revolution in India

World Food Prize LaureateMember of Parliament (Rajya Sabha)

Chairman, M. S. Swaminathan ResearchFoundation Third Cross Street, Taramani

Institutional Area Chennai - 600 113, India



ForewordMartin Parry

The threat to food security is probably the great-est challenge of climate change. The evidence isthat, while there may be a few positive effectson yield potential in some parts of the world andfor the initial two or three decades of warming,for the great majority of people, and especiallyas warming picks up after about 2030, the effectwill be generally negative.

Moreover, the most substantial reductions inemissions—even if international action on mit-igation were agreed—is not likely to avoid 2◦Cof global warming above preindustrial levels.

I am, therefore, very glad that Dr ShyamS. Yadav has brought together this team of ex-perts and their writings on the effects of climatechange on agricultural production. When I wasediting the 2007 IPCC assessment on impacts,adaptation, and vulnerability, it became clear thatour knowledge of potential effects on crops andlivestock had advanced hugely over the preced-ing decade. There remained, however, very sub-stantial gaps in our understanding.

Chief among these gaps in knowledge werethe following: effects on crop yields in subop-timal conditions (such as low-nitrogen levels),especially in developing countries and in semi-arid regions; effects on crop pests and diseases

and their outcome for yield, and also on the com-petition from weeds; and effects on livestock car-rying capacity and on direct animal well-beingitself. Then there were the more upscale implica-tions of altered yield and carrying capacity, suchas the consequences of climate change on lo-cal, regional, and national food security. Finally,there were the uncertainties about what adap-tive actions might be the most effective, from theplant level to the international level.

These issues are tackled in this volume. Itschapters report on recent progress in understand-ing effects on growth at the individual plantlevel, through to effects on the farm and village,to the implications for food supply locally andregionally.

I commend this book to readers as a fine ex-ample of the progress we have made and of thescale of the challenge ahead.

Professor Martin Parry, PhD, OBE

Formerly:Co-Chair of Working Group II

(Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability),Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC) until September 2008, team whichreceived the Noble Peace Prize for 2007.

xxiv



ForewordAhmed Djoghlaf

This volume comes at a critical moment in thefight for a sustainable future. Today, we humanscontinue to drive species extinct at up to 1000times the natural background rate. This rapid lossof biodiversity is undermining the stability ofecosystems across the planet and thereby threat-ening our own well-being. The ramifications ofbiodiversity loss become all the more worrisomewhen we factor in climate change. The degrada-tion of many ecosystems is significantly reducingtheir carbon storage and sequestration capacity,leading to increases in emissions of greenhousegases. Moreover, the relationship between biodi-versity and climate change goes both ways: ap-proximately 10% of species assessed so far havean increasingly high risk of extinction for every1◦C rise in global mean surface temperature, atrend that is expected to hold true up to at leasta 5◦C increase. Overall, 89% of fourth nationalreports received by the Convention on Biologi-cal Diversity (CBD) from its Parties indicate thatclimate change is either currently driving biodi-versity loss or will drive it in the relatively nearfuture.

These trends are particularly worrying whenit comes to our food security, for agriculturalbiodiversity is now more threatened than ever.Seventy-five percent of the food crop varietieswe once grew have disappeared from our fieldsin the last 100 years. Of the 7000 species of

plants that have been domesticated over the his-tory of agriculture, a mere 30 account for 90% ofall the food that we eat every day. This loss of ge-netic diversity has potentially devastating conse-quences. For example, widespread failure in ourhandful of remaining major crops due to diseaseor pest outbreaks is a very real possibility: giventhat pest and pathogens are constantly evolving,a diverse gene pool is essential if we are to de-velop insect- and disease-resistant strains in thefuture. Moreover, our reliance on so few cropsmakes human populations that much more vul-nerable to climate change: as growing conditionschange, the most suitable species or cultivars ina given region may likewise change.

Agricultural biodiversity is extremely impor-tant because it provides humans not only withfood but also with raw materials for many differ-ent goods—such as cotton for clothing, wood forshelter and fuel, plants and roots for medicines,and materials for biofuels—and with incomesand livelihoods, including those derived fromsubsistence farming. Agricultural biodiversityalso performs ecosystem services such as soiland water conservation and maintenance of soilfertility and biota, all of which are essential tohuman survival.

Given the links between agricultural biodi-versity and climate change, books that compre-hensively address these links are sorely needed.

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xxvi FOREWORD

That is why the current volume is so important.With more than 100 contributors from all sixcontinents, it offers a wide-ranging and in-depthlook at the relationship between crop plants andclimate change, making it an invaluable resourcein our efforts to stabilize the climate, protect life

on Earth, and thereby help safeguard the futurewell-being of our children.

Ahmed DjoghlafAssistant Secretary General

Executive Secretary of the United NationsConvention on Biological Diversity



ForewordCary Fowler

Even the most conservative of climate changemodels give us a world later this century that isstrikingly different than that in which we—andthe crops that feed us—live today. And beforethen, plenty of dramatic change will already beupon us.

In many parts of the world, crops willface temperatures never experienced since theNeolithic: higher average temperatures, higherextremes, longer periods of dangerously hotweather, and high temperatures at important andvulnerable times in the plants’ life cycle—andthat’s not to speak of fluctuations and variabil-ity in climate, more of which are a certainty inall the models; or changes and problems withwater.

Crops have experienced climate change be-fore, directly and indirectly, but never on thisscale, never so rapidly, and never with the mag-nitude of impact we anticipate now. The historicmovement of crops between continents, for ex-ample, constituted climate change “in effect” formany crops. But the challenge faced by maizein moving from Latin America to Europe andAfrica 500 years ago was a very different onein time and magnitude than that which will con-front maize in Africa in this century. Then, maizewas not an established crop feeding hundreds ofmillions. Its rise as a staple in new lands pro-ceeded in lock step with its adaptation and in-tegration into farming systems. Today, climate

change confronts humanity and its crops morepointedly and at a time when a billion peopleon earth are already hungry and vulnerable. Itlooms over both the most sophisticated and in-dustrial and the most humble subsistence agri-cultural systems.

The central imperative of our time, I believe,is to get agriculture ready for climate change.Darwin unlocked the mystery of adaptation andevolution more than 150 years ago. He realizedthat diversity and inheritance, subjected to natu-ral selection and time, led to evolution.

Though inheritance still works, time is cer-tainly not on our side at this moment.

We have impressive amounts of crop geneticdiversity at our disposal, however. It must besafeguarded and mobilized.

We have plant breeders and farmers to guideselection. They too must be safeguarded, mobi-lized, and significantly empowered.

Together, these are the ingredients for cropadaptation to climate change in the twenty-firstcentury. This much is beyond dispute.

It would be folly to assume that our crops willmagically become adapted to new and radicallydifferent conditions without substantial interven-tion and conscious action by human beings. Itwould also be folly to assume that our cropsare somehow preadapted to what is coming. Ourcrops are domesticated. Their future is in ourhands. There is no certainty.

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xxviii FOREWORD

Adaptation will not simply be achieved byhope or by policy decree. It will come crop bycrop and region by region or not at all. The chap-ters in this book constitute an early and signif-icant effort to specify what potential exists andwhat efforts and traits will be needed to ensure

that agriculture is prepared to face its greatestchallenge.

Cary FowlerExecutive Director

Global Crop DiversityFAO of UN, Italy



ForewordDavid K. Skelly

This volume represents a remarkable and greatlyneeded contribution to our response to chang-ing climate. For at least two decades, the world’sscientists have focused on communicating a phe-nomenon of global proportion. The scale of thepolicy challenges are enormous and, in manyways, unprecedented. It is no surprise, then, thatthere has been no rapid progress on developinga consensus about what may be done to halt orslow the drivers of climate change, let alone re-verse it. As the world’s governments continuewhat promises to be a drawn out process, thereis much work to do.

The enclosed chapters provide an importantmodel for needed research. It is perhaps no sur-prise that researchers working with crops readilyappreciate that one size fits all solutions are un-likely to be useful. Yet the concept that adapta-tion will need to be customized for particular lo-cations, let alone particular species, has escapedmany commentators thinking about ‘global’ cli-mate change. Research on crop adaptation canhelp us appreciate the difficulties in scaling downto the landscapes in which humans experienceand respond to climate. At the same time, thepast successes achieved by crop science providea strong foundation for hope.

The research upon which these chapters arebased, and the research that will be inspired by

them, will have obvious direct benefits to humanwelfare. But there is perhaps a less appreciateddimension to this work. A very small number ofresearchers have been studying the potential foradaptation to climate change by wild species.There is tantalizing evidence that evolutionaryresponses are already taking place. But there aremany skeptics who see such research as a dis-traction to the main job of alerting the publicand decision-makers to the dangers of climatechange. I believe research on crop adaptationwill strengthen the case for expecting evolvedresponses in the natural world while also givingsome of the clearest conceptions of how organ-isms can successfully cope with the altered con-ditions they are likely to experience as the worldcontinues to change. In this and other ways, workon crops can inspire a range of audiences to movefrom hand wringing to action.

David K. SkellyProfessor of Ecology and

Associate Dean for ResearchSchool of Forestry & Environmental Studies

Yale UniversityKroon Hall

195 Prospect StreetNew Haven, Connecticut 06511

United States of America

xxix



ForewordWalter P. Falcon

I am honored to have been asked to providethe foreword for Crop Adaptation to ClimateChange. The authors are distinguished, the topicis timely, and the world is at a critical juncturewith respect both to agriculture and climate. Theforeseeable need to double agricultural outputin a more populous, richer, and warmer worldwill surely challenge the best science that can bemade available.

Agricultural and climate scientists will be ea-ger to have this particular volume. It brings to-gether the scholarly and gray literatures that typ-ically reside on the multiple shelves of manybookcases. Having a single, well-documentedvolume, organized both by region and commod-ity, assures that it will be an invaluable referencefor a wide range of scholars and practitioners.

While this collection of articles answers manyof the questions at the intersection of climateand agriculture, it does not answer all of them.Nor should it be expected to. The understand-ing of crop physiology is still evolving, and evenwith a perfect understanding of the biology, eco-nomic, and political factors may condition whatis feasible. Moreover, there are still very largeuncertainties about future global change, espe-cially with respect to several key variables. Thestresses, and hence the adaptation needs, that keycrops will be called upon to exhibit—and breed-ers and agronomists called upon to “fix”—musttherefore also be uncertain.

Much of the general public is unaware of onefundamental source of variation about future cli-mates. Predicting the broad dimensions of global

climate change requires the use of complicatedgeneral circulation models (GCMs). These mod-els are very large, often requiring more than100 person-years in their development. There aremore than 20 GCM models currently in use, andin general, they give broadly similar answers.However, at the regional, country, or subcountrylevels—the geographic levels of most interestto agriculturalists—there can be large quantita-tive differences among projections from differentmodels. (Many of the models also do not cap-ture climate variability in very satisfying ways.)These differences among models are particularlyimportant for projected rainfall patterns at down-scaled country levels, which in turn have im-pact on the development of relevant adaptationstrategies. They also complicate research com-parisons when one group of scientists relies pri-marily on the output of a particular GCM, whileother groups rely on alternative models. Fortu-nately, most of the chapters in this volume relyon an “ensemble” approach to GCM variation.

The GCMs are in much greater agreement onprojected temperature changes, at least in termsof direction, than for rainfall patterns. While thatis good news, the bad news is that many coun-tries will exhibit substantially warmer temper-atures over the next 50–100 years. Battisti andNaylor (2009), for example, show that for manyparts of the world, the coolest years near the endof the twenty-first century will be warmer thanthe hottest years to date. And as several papers inthis volume demonstrate, it is becoming increas-ingly clear that days above 30◦C have serious

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FOREWORD xxxi

consequences for grain yields—at least as plantsare now configured.

More generally, breeders will likely be in fran-tic searches for the genetic variation required forthe various crops as plants are pushed to the ex-tremes of their growing ranges. This dilemmaraises yet another set of questions: Will genebanks be prepared for the likely tasks ahead ofthem? Will wild relatives of crops be a likelysource of such variation, and if so, by what pro-cesses can genes be isolated from these rela-tives and made available to breeders? And, willthe search for genetic variation to accommodateclimate change be instrumental in altering thedebate about genetic transfers among species(GMOs)?

Crop Adaptation to Climate Change is not thefirst word on agriculture and climate, nor will it

be the last. However, it provides important an-swers to a great many of the most pressing crop-and region-specific problems related to these top-ics. It is a very timely publication.

Walter P. Falcon (PhD Economics,Harvard University)

Farnsworth Professor of InternationalAgricultural Policy (Emeritus)

Deputy Director, Food Securityand the Environment Program,

Stanford University

Reference

Battisti DS, Naylor RL (2009). Historical warn-ings of future food insecurity with unprecedentedseasonal heat. Science 323: 240–244.



Preface

Climate change is a reality in today’s world andwill exacerbate future attempts to support an in-creasing human population while not destroyingthe biosphere in the process. The Stern Reviewon the Economics of Climate Change in 2006and the Fourth Assessment Report by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change in 2007have pushed the scientific and public debates onclimate change a decisive step forward. It is nowbeyond doubt that anthropogenic greenhouse gasemissions are the primary cause for recentlydocumented changes in climate, and that early,strong mitigation measures to decrease green-house gas emissions would eventually be morecost-effective than later adaptation to potentiallycatastrophic changes in climate. Substantial fur-ther changes in climate are likely to occur, how-ever, even with aggressive mitigation efforts.

The human population is projected to increasefrom the current 7 billion to 9 billion withina period of only 40 years. Meeting the needsof these additional people will require substan-tial increases in production of agricultural sys-tems using essentially the same area of arableland as is used today, or less due to expansionof cities. Current agricultural systems are to acertain extent adapted to current climates. Sub-stantial changes in agricultural systems will beneeded in the many regions subjected to criticalchanges in climate, especially if these systemsare to have greater productivity.

Many of the world’s poor live in arid andsemiarid zones under environmental conditionsthat currently are challenging. In addition, these

farmers do not have the resources to facilitateadaptation of their cropping systems to changingclimates. Most developing countries are highlydependent on agricultural sectors strongly af-fected by climate change and have institutionswith limited capacity to develop improved crop-ping systems. Consequently, a collaborative ef-fort by the world’s agricultural scientists isneeded if the necessary changes to agriculturalsystems are to be made.

This book contributes to this collaborative ef-fort by providing reviews by a group of inter-national scientists with expertise in the princi-pal crops grown in tropical and temperate zones.Projections are provided of the extent to whichclimate change will influence the productivityof these crops in different regions of the world.Opportunities for developing improved croppingsystems adapted to future climates through plantbreeding and changes in crop management aredescribed. The goals of this book are: (1) to pro-vide a blueprint to breed more resilient crops thatcan adapt to future climate change and also bemore productive in sustainable cropping systemsand (2) to encourage the political, institutional,and financial support needed for the doubling ofagricultural production during this century.

Shyam S. Yadav, Kabul, AfghanistanRobert J. Redden, Horsham, Australia

Jerry L. Hatfield, Ames, United States of AmericaHermann Lotze-Campen, Potsdam, Germany

Anthony E. Hall, Riverside, United Statesof America

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Acknowledgments

The editors express their sincere thanks to thecontributors for their valuable professional chap-ters, patience, dedication, and commitment tothis book. The editing of multi-author texts isnot always easy. In this case, it was painless,encouraging, and enjoyable. All the authors andcoauthors responded speedily and effectively tothe collective pressure exerted by the editors,with the consequences that the manuscripts weredelivered without any difficulty. This made thejob of the editors easier and the job of collect-ing the scripts and preparing the final text for thepublisher relatively straightforward.

The advice and suggestions of Professor NeilC. Turner, guidance from Dr T.J. Higgins, theformer Deputy Chief Division of Plant Indus-try CSIRO, the enthusiasm and leadership ofDr Leanne B. Webb of CSIRO in identifying ateam to assemble the viticulture chapter at shortnotice as substitute authors, the important con-tributions of Dr Andy Jarvis to many chaptersas well as coordinating the regional chapter onSouth America, and the creative discussions withDr Garry O’Leary for the local application of cli-mate change modeling were all invaluable.

The editors extend their sincere thanksto the world renowned dignitaries ProfessorM. S. Swaminathan, Professor Walter Falcon,Dr Ahmed Djoghlaf, Professor David Skelly,Dr Daniel Hillel, Professor Cynthia Rosen-zweig, Dr Cary Fowler, and Professor MartinParry, who provided forewords for the book.The contribution of Professor Ted Wolfe is

acknowledged in addressing the challenges ofanticipating an uncertain future.

The editors express their sincere thanks toMr. Manav Yadav, who was the Project Coordi-nator for this book. He has been working for thisproject right from the beginning when it was justa proposal until the final stages of the book pub-lication. He managed the communications witheditors, publisher—John Wiley and authors, andthe technical editor queries. His dynamic lead-ership and commitment helped contributors in-volved to work on this project as a team andfinished this daunting task in a timely manner.

We express our deep gratitude to several peo-ple who have rendered invaluable assistance inmaking this publication possible. Shyam S. Ya-dav and Robert J. Redden, Senior Editor andCo-Editor, respectively, express their apprecia-tion for the late Dr Norman E. Borlaug, No-ble Laureate, who inspired the professionalismand motivation for this book. Lastly, but not theleast we express our special thanks to Justin Jef-fryes, Anna Ehler, and Susan Engelken at Wiley-Blackwell Publishing, John Wiley & Sons, Inc.,United States, for providing the technical andadministrative support needed for publishing ofthis book.

Dr Shyam S. Yadav, AfghanistanDr Robert J. Redden, Australia

Dr Jerry L. Hatfield, United States of AmericaDr Hermann Lotze-Campen, Germany

Professor Anthony E. Hall, United Statesof America

xxxiii



xxxiv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

References to any chemical control products,uses, operations, or specific equipment or man-ufacturers in this book should not be consideredan endorsement of their use in areas for whichthey have not been approved. Their incorporationhere is to provide information on research that

has been carried out and not to propose their usewhere not registered. All the information con-tained in this book is for reference study pur-pose only and for information, and is not an en-dorsement for use or practice by the Editors orAuthors.

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Crop Adaptation to Climate Change (Yadav/Crop Adaptation to Climate Change) || Front Matter