Critical Infrastructure Interdependencies

H. Scott Matthews

March 3, 2003

Recap of Last Lecture Midterm Questions? Due Wednesday! 802.11b data networks:

Mainstream wireless for home/business Unlicensed, growing, insecure by practice Tend to be overlaid on wired networks Seem to use less elec in use than wired

Ad-hoc/public/open wireless networks Becoming a reality Have security problems

Interdependencies A new emphasis on critical infrastructures

PDD-63 in 1998 after Oklahoma City Generally worried about hackers interfering with

operation of physical infrastructures Use of digital to disrupt physical suggests

interdependency There are many non-hacking interdependencies

Natural events can exploit them too

Perhaps can be better understood and managed with information systems

Key QuestionsWhat tools can be used to predict?How can everyday operation be

balanced with security concerns?What are performance measures?Who are stakeholders?How to deal with risk and uncertainty?

Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) Collective, systemic behavior emergent

I.e. follows patterns that result from, but not predictable from, nonlinear interactions with a large number of subsystems

Capabilities change over time Greater than sum of its parts May be possible to model/ manage/

understand via agent-based systems Software systems where simple decision rules are

followed and tracked via information given to them

Six Dimensions of Infras. Interdependencies (Rinaldi) Infrastructure environmentCouplingResponse behaviorFailure types Infrastructure characteristicsState of Operation

Types of Interdependencies Physical - output is dependent on other

E.g. coal by rail to power plants Cyber

Banking/ATM systems use wired networks Logical

Linked through financial markets (buy/sell) Geographical

Co-located or nearby sites (power plant near steel factory)

Existing Interdependency Diagrams

Production, Cooling, Emissions Reduction

Water for

Power for Compressors,

Storage, Control

Systems

Fuel for

Generators

Power for Pump and Lift Stations,Control Systems

Power for

Switches

Water for

Cooling,

Emissions

Reduction Heat

Power for Pumping Stations, Storage, Control Systems

Fuel for Generators, Lubricants

SCADA, Communications

SCADA, Communications

SCADA,

CommunicationsSC

AD

A, C

om

mu

nic

atio

ns

Fuels, Lubricants

Fuels, Lubricants

SC

AD

A,

Co

mm

un

icat

ion

s

Water for Cooling

Fuel Transport,Shipping

FuelTransport, Shipping

Shi

ppin

g

Shipping

Power forSignaling,Switches

Fuel for Generators

Wat

er f

or

Pro

du

ctio

n,

Co

oli

ng

, E

mis

sio

ns

Red

uct

ion

Water

Transpor-tationOil

Telecom

NaturalGasElectric

Power

Proposed Interdependency Diagrams

ElectricPower

NaturalGas

$5.2B-8%

Transpor-tation$7.2B -

12%

Numbers represent 1997 dollar value of purchases from other sectorsInto Non-value-added of electricity industry product (and % of total)

Coal

$13.7B22%

Definition of Infrastructure SectorsEnergyCommunicationsPipelinesOther utilities (e.g. water)Transportation (Rail, Air, Water, Truck)

Make table insights

Example: Federal, state, and local government enterprises (e.g. TVA) make 13% of total electricity output

Sector Total Output Sector Output Other Pct OtherElectricity $232,885 $202,420 $30,465 13%Rail Trans $78,362 $70,172 $8,190 10%Water Trans $37,136 $34,530 $2,606 7%Air Trans $137,175 $130,646 $6,529 5%Pipelines $37,648 $37,584 $64 0%Communications $320,000 $320,000 $0 0%Gas Prod/Dist $111,176 $106,991 $4,185 4%Water/sanitary svcs $65,740 $21,861 $43,879 67%

Outputs in millions $1997

Use Insights for CI Sectors

Sector Tot CI Purch Tot Int Purch Pct CIRail Trans. $4,751 $27,655 17%Truck Trans. $58,100 $112,000 51%Water Trans. $9,347 $23,834 39%Air Trans. $21,298 $67,641 31%Pipelines $3,208 $19,441 17%Communications $47,730 $144,306 33%Electricity $12,345 $61,931 20%Gas Prod/Dist $25,001 $88,722 28%

Outputs in $millions

Top Sectors Dependent on CISector Sum CI Use Trucking and warehousing $40,548Communications (non broad) $29,976Retail Trade $22,908Wholesale trade $21,363Petroleum Refining $20,203Gas prod & Dist $18,870Food and Kindred Products $17,172Real Estate Mgmt $17,025Air Transp $16,045Health Services $16,010Finance $14,758Restaurants $13,605New construction $12,089Electric Utils $11,648Industrial and other chemicals $10,841

Top Sectors With Highest % CI

Sector Percent CITrucking and warehousing 49%Communications (non broad) 34%Fed Govt Enterprises 31%Water transp 31%Air transp 31%Stone & Clay Products 27%Gas prod & Dist 27%Water & Sanitary svcs 26%Nonmetallic minerals mining 25%Hotels and lodging places 21%Pipelines 20%Electric utils 19%Rail transp 19%Agric. Fertilizers 19%Glass and glass products 18%

Average acrossAll sectors is11%