Persistence and Continuity of Criminal Careers from Early

Adolescence to Adulthood

 

 

 

Shachar Yonai

Department of Criminology

Ph.D. Thesis

Submitted to the Senate of Bar-Ilan University

Ramat-Gan, Israel February, 2014

This work was carried out under the supervision of Prof. Stephen Z.

Levine Faculty of Social Welfare and Health Sciences, Haifa University,

and Prof. Joseph Glicksohn Department of Criminology, Bar-Ilan

University

Acknowledgements

This thesis would not have been possible without the guidance, help, and support of

several remarkable people who contributed in their unique way to the preparation and

completion of this thesis.

I would like to thank my family for their endless support, to my wife and best friend,

Carmit, for her personal support, encouragement and love, which made the writing of

this thesis possible. To my parents for their unlimited help and caring which mere

expression of thanks does not suffice.

I would like to express my deepest gratitude and respect to my principle advisor,

mentor and friend Prof. Stephen Z. Levine, for his excellent guidance, caring, and

patience. This amazing journey which started in a brief meeting in your office would

not have reached its end without your invaluable experience and optimism.

I would like to express my appreciation to my second advisor Prof. Joseph Glicksohn

for his personal support and good advice, and whose expertise and understanding,

added considerably to the writing of this thesis.

A very special thanks goes to Chief-Superintendent Meir Dov Berkovich of the Israeli

Police and Mr. Efi Braver from the Ministry of Social Affairs, of the state of Israel,

which their support in acquiring the necessary data for the current thesis was

indispensable.

 Chapter 1 - Introduction.................................................................................................1

Thesis background and overview...............................................................................1

The criminal career paradigm ....................................................................................1

Theories......................................................................................................................3

Taxonomic theory ................................................................................................3

The general theory of crime ...............................................................................3

The extension of the orthogenetic theory to criminal behavior.....................4

Empirical studies ........................................................................................................4

Study 1 ...................................................................................................................5

Study 2 ...................................................................................................................5

Study 3 ...................................................................................................................6

Study 4 ...................................................................................................................6

Summary ....................................................................................................................7

Chapter 2 - A National Population Based Examination of the Association between

Age-Versatility Trajectories and Recidivism Rates.......................................................8

Chapter 3 - Elaboration on Specialization in Crime: Disaggregating Age Cohort

Effects ..........................................................................................................................20

Chapter 4 - Versatility and Specialization Transitions from Early Adolescence to

Early Adulthood: Hidden Markov Modelling of a National Population-Based Juvenile

Offender Dataset ..........................................................................................................44

Chapter 5 - Trajectories of Crime and Familial Characteristics: A Longitudinal

National Population-Based Study................................................................................80

Chapter 6 - Discussion...............................................................................................107

Theoretical integration and contribution ................................................................108

Contribution to the criminal career paradigm ........................................................111

Limitations .............................................................................................................112

Future studies .........................................................................................................112

Policy implications.................................................................................................113

Conclusions ............................................................................................................114

References..................................................................................................................115

Appendix 1 - Analysis of Versatility Levels Across the Trajectory Groups .............119

Analytic strategy ....................................................................................................120

Results ....................................................................................................................120

Abstract

Objectives: Three competing theories are examined that may explain different aspects

of persistency and continuity within the criminal careers paradigm. These theories

are the general theory of crime (Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990) that states that low self-

control interacts with opportunities to explain crime, taxonomic theory that posits that

there are primarily two groups of offenders who assume different courses of offending

(Moffitt, 1993), and the extension of the orthogenetic principle to criminal behavior

that states that delinquency unfolds from diversification of the types of offenses at a

young age, to more stabilized and patterned type of offenses with aging (Le Blanc &

Loeber, 1998). The current thesis specifically aims to compare these theories by

examining the dimensions of persistence and continuity (i.e., offending rate or

frequency, recidivism, specialization-versatility) in offending within the criminal

career paradigm. To compare the theories four issues were empirically examined: (a)

study 1 examined the relationship between versatility-specialization offending pattern

that develops during early stages of the criminal career and persistence offending

behavior (i.e., recidivism); (b) study 2 examined trends in specialization-versatility

offending pattern from adolescence to early adulthood; (c) study 3 extended current

methodological approaches to versatility-specialization by using a novel statistical

approach to examine versatility-specialization transition dynamics with aging to

inform theory; and (c) study 4 examined the extent of heterogeneity in offending

frequency (i.e., trajectory groups) and group offending characteristics.

Methods: The current thesis is based on four studies. Studies 1, 3, and 4 utilized the

national Israeli population-based crime registry of all first and subsequent juvenile

offenders from 1996 to 2008 (N=51,777 juvenile offenders). Study 2 is based on

offending data collected by the California Youth Authority (CYA), a rehabilitation

facility, between 1964 and 1965 at the Deuel Vocational Institution (DVI) in Tracy,

California (N=3,652 offenders) and represent the a priori choice of a high-risk

offender group. Multiple statistical approaches were used to examine the current

thesis research objectives. Study 1 included a semi-parametric group-based model of

latent age-versatility trajectories of police contacts that was subsequently used as a

risk factor in Cox-regression modeling to predict recidivism. Study 2 analyzed trends

in offending versatility based on calculating transition matrices of the Forward

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Specialization Coefficient (FSC) measure. Study 3 utilized Hidden Markov Modeling

(HMMs) to examine the transition dynamics between versatility and specialization.

Study 4 used a semi-parametric group-based modeling to identify latent trajectory

groups based on offense frequency, the Marascuilo procedure to examine the null

hypothesis that the proportions of variables are equal across the trajectory groups, and

Generalized Estimation Equation modeling (GEE) to examine specialization-

versatility differences between the trajectory groups.

Results: Group-based trajectory modeling in study 1 identified two groups that

characterized the age-versatility curve of police contacts before first conviction.

These trajectory-groups were labeled as the versatility and the specialization groups.

After controlling for 19 documented demographic, familial, and criminogenic risk

factors, Cox regression showed that juvenile offenders belonging to the versatility

group were at increased risk of recidivism compared to offenders in the specialization

group. In study 2 the results of FSCs indicated that, there exists a modest tendency of

increased specialization with aging, and that the attrition of infrequent offenders over

an extensive period did not influence specialization trends among high-risk youth.

Study 3 results of Hidden Markov Modeling showed that (a) the quantitative aspect of

versatility-specialization transition dynamics can be described by three latent states

termed versatility state, intermediate state, and specialization state; (b) there was a

general proclivity of switching into the versatility state during adolescence and early

adulthood; and (c) the switch between states for a minority of offenders did not occur

abruptly, but rather in a stage-sequential process. Group-based trajectory modelling

in study 4 indicated that juvenile offenders assume five different trajectories of

criminal development from early adolescence to mid adulthood. Results based on the

Marascuilo procedure indicated that imprisonment of parents, brothers and sisters was

associated with developing a trajectory of persistent offending. GEE modeling of

specialization-versatility levels across trajectory groups indicated that persistent

offenders showed higher versatility levels compared to low-rate offenders.

Conclusions: The empirical finding in study 1 which indicated that the versatility

pattern for police contacts that develops during early stages of offending predicts

subsequent recidivism for convictions highlight the independent relationship between

offense frequency and variety. Based on study 1 the results suggest that Moffitt's

taxonomic theory may be regarded as a plausible theoretical explanation for the

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emerging latent trajectory groups of police contacts that predict recidivism, and hence

offer an explanation of offense frequency. The results of study 2 suggest that

although offenders tend to become more versatile as they age, there is also a modest

trend of increased specialization with aging. These results are generally consistent

with the general theory of crime that state that in late adulthood when the rate of

offense frequency declines, offense diversity tends to decline as well, and with the

extension of the orthogenetic principle to criminal behaviour as specialization with

aging was also observed. The results of study 3 validate that the general norm is that

of versatility, but also suggests that the transition between versatility and

specialization were stage-sequential as implied by the extension of the orthogenetic

theory to criminal behavior. The emerging trajectory groups and their characteristics

in study 4 are generally consistent with the taxonomic theory. They highlight

criminological debate between typological and "mono-causal theories", where the

former emphasize the presence of homogeneous clusters of offenders, whereas the

latter deny their existence. Collectively, the current thesis highlights how

comprehensive (population-based) methodology, advanced statistics (i.e., latent

modeling) and competing theories of crime are informative of one-another in

explaining specific aspects of continuity and persistence in the criminal career

paradigm.

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Chapter 1 - Introduction

Thesis background and overview

The main dimensions of criminal careers are offending onset, offending rate or

frequency, persistence and continuity (e.g., recidivism), length, and desistence

(DeLisi & Piquero, 2011). Theoretically, all studies in the current thesis compare

competing hypotheses derived from the general theory of crime (Gottfredson &

Hirschi, 1990), the taxonomic theory (Moffitt, 1993), and the application of the

orthogenetic theory (Werner, 1948) to criminal behavior (Le Blanc & Loeber, 1998).

Study 1 point to changes in versatility during early adolescence years and their

association to future criminal behavior. Study 2 extends study 1 by examining a

different age-range (hence developmental period) and shows a modest increase in

specialization from adolescence to early adulthood. Extending the use of an

aggregate specialization-versatility measure in study 2, study 3 examines transitions

between specialization and versatility with Hidden Markov Models (HMM) using

different switching patterns. Extending the notion of subgroup identification in study

3, study 4 identifies the development of offending over time with group-based

trajectory modeling and their associated criminal, demographic and versatility levels. 

The criminal career paradigm

The criminal career paradigm describes the development of offending

according to the following primary dimensions: offending onset, offending rate or

frequency, persistence and continuity (e.g., recidivism), length, and desistence

(DeLisi & Piquero, 2011). The dimension of persistence and continuity is a key

aspect of criminal careers because of its important implication to theory and public

policy alike (Delisi et al., 2011; DeLisi & Piquero, 2011; Farrington, 1997;

Farrington, Snyder, & Finnegan, 1988; Piquero, Farrington, & Blumstein, 2007;

Piquero, Paternoster, Mazerolle, Brame, & Dean, 1999). For example, the

identification of chronic offenders early in their criminal career will allow to target

intervention programs that will prevent them from pursuing their criminal inclinations

(Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1986). Accordingly, this thesis focuses on the persistence

and continuity dimensions of the criminal career.

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Criminal career advocates express offending persistency and continuity in

terms of changes in offending over time (Piquero et al., 2001). A key aspect of

persistence offending is the extent to which specialization or versatility is shown over

the criminal career. Its theoretical and practical importance led research to embrace

and refine new methodologies to uncover its dynamic properties (Baker, Falco

Metcalfe, & Jennings, 2013). Another prominent aspect suggests that different

offending patterns lead to homogeneous group of offenders that can be prospectively

identified and studied (Blokland, Nagin, & Nieuwbeerta, 2005).

The present thesis addresses four issues of persistence and continuity in

offending. The first issue focuses on examining the relationship between the

versatility pattern that develops during early stages of the criminal career and

persistent offending behavior (i.e., recidivism). This is relevant and first studied,

since theories (Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990; Moffitt, 1993; Moffitt, Caspi,

Harrington, & Milne, 2002) suggest that the frequency and variety of offending are

positively correlated (Monahan & Piquero, 2009), and that a persistent offending life-

style is determined during adolescence years (Moffitt, 1993).

The second study aim is to examine trends in specialization-versatility from

the adolescent years to early adulthood. This follows directly from the first study in

this thesis since the results of study 1 showed that various versatility-specialization

trends can emerge during adolescence. The extent to which offenders change their

specialization-versatility offending pattern according to theoretical propositions (see

for example, Delisi et al., 2011; Le Blanc & Loeber, 1998) is examined in the second

thesis study.

Third, the thesis examines the structural dynamics between specialization and

versatility from adolescence to early adulthood. This follows from the second study

in the thesis because the results showed a modest trend of increased specialization

from adolescence to early adulthood. This trend was observed, however, by using an

aggregate measure of specialization-versatility. As a result, the analysis of the

transition dynamics between specialization and versatility is precluded. The third

manuscript in the thesis offers new methodology to uncover the structural dynamic

facets between versatility and specialization.

Fourth, theory suggests that various specialization-versatility offending

patterns may differentiate between homogeneous groups of offenders. These

theoretical expectations are expressed in study 3, which indicated that versatility-

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specialization transition dynamics is best described by three latent states. This

suggests that a parsimonious description of offense patterning can be achieved by

searching for subgroups of offenders with a similar developmental offending pattern.

Research suggests that one of the analytic methods that provide the necessary

framework for analyzing longitudinal data on crime is a latent longitudinal technique

(Jennings & Reingle, 2012). For example, theories like the taxonomic theory require

an appropriate analytic technique to identify the life-course persistent offenders who

embrace diverse offending patterns compared to adolescence-limited offenders who

are expected to exhibit far less versatility with age (Mazerolle, Brame, Paternoster,

Piquero, & Dean, 2000). Accordingly, the thesis ends by identifying homogeneous

groups of offenders across their entire criminal career using latent trajectory analysis

(Nagin, 2005) and their association to specialization-versatility levels and other risk

factors.

Theories

Three competing key theories are examined in this thesis to explain

persistence and change in offending over time. This section provides a brief overview

of these theories, and they are elaborated on in the manuscripts that this thesis is based

on.

Taxonomic theory

Taxonomic theory (Moffitt, 1993) suggests that there are primarily two groups

of criminal offenders. The first group, labeled life-course persistent offenders,

engages in criminal behavior across their life course. The second group, labeled

adolescence-limited offenders, engages in criminal behavior for a short and temporary

period during adolescence. These groups assume different courses of offending.

The general theory of crime

Contrary to taxonomic theory, Gottfredson and Hirschi's general theory of

crime (Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990) suggests that low self-control is responsible for

criminal behavior. The theory proposes that self-control is a continuous attribute

where those who have lower levels of self-control should exhibit higher levels of

offending versatility (Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990; Piquero et al., 1999). This

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suggests that various patterns of offending development across age among juvenile

offenders appear likely.

The extension of the orthogenetic theory to criminal behavior

Faced with a lack of long term criminal-course predictive validity, previous

research (Le Blanc & Loeber, 1998; Piquero et al., 1999) suggests that the

orthogenetic principle (Werner, 1948) may explain changes across the criminal career.

According to the theory (Werner, 1948), behavior occurs through three developmental

stages. These stages suggest that human behavior develops from being (i) organized

in a very general and undifferentiated way, to (ii) having distinct parts, and ultimately

evolving into (iii) an integrated hierarchy. Thus, theoretically during this progression

behavior develops toward being more patterned and organized. In applying these

theoretical stages to criminal activity, it is contended that delinquency unfolds from

diversification of the types of offenses at a young age, to more stabilized and

patterned type of offenses (i.e., specialization) with maturation (Le Blanc & Loeber,

1998).

Empirical studies

The current thesis is based on four studies. Studies 1, 3, and 4 are based on

the Israeli offending data, whereas study 2 is based on offending data collected by the

California Youth Authority (CYA), a rehabilitation facility, between 1964 and 1965 at

the Deuel Vocational Institution (DVI) in Tracy, California. As indicated earlier,

study 2 extends study 1 by examining the specialization-versatility offending pattern

for a different age-range. To examine changes in specialization-versatility offending

pattern across age, theory and empirical studies highlight the value of controlling for

age of onset (see for example, Piquero et al., 1999). Offenders in the Israeli data,

however, all have onset ages that occurred during adolescence years. To

appropriately compare differences in the specialization-versatility offending pattern,

research should also employ a group of offenders whose offending onset occurred

during adulthood. The data collected in the California Youth Authority (CYA), at the

Deuel Vocational Institution (DVI) in Tracy, California, provide the necessary

conditions to accurately reflect changes in specialization-versatility offending pattern

while controlling for age of onset. For this reason study 2 utilizes a different sample

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to the remaining samples to examine specialization-versatility offending patterns with

maturation. Accordingly, the current section provides an overview of the empirical

studies examined to compare the theories.

Study 1

Research into juvenile recidivism generally indicates a number of factors that

are associated with recidivism. Criminal factors such as age of onset and criminal

history and demographic factors such as gender and ethnicity (Baumer, 1997; Benda

& Tollett, 1999; Bowles & Florackis, 2007; Dejong, 1997; Spohn & Holleran, 2002)

have been associated with recidivism. In the current application of the criminal career

paradigm, versatility trajectories that develop during early stages of the criminal

career are incorporated as developmental risk factors, and their utility in predicting

recidivism is examined. This is relevant because theory suggests that a persistent

offending life-style is determined during the adolescent years (Moffitt, 1993).

Collectively, the idea expressed in the first manuscript that was accepted for

publication in Journal of Criminal Justice (Yonai, Levine, & Glicksohn, 2013b)

examines the association between versatility trajectories that develops during early

stages of the criminal career and future recidivism, while controlling for other

documented risk factors.

Study 2

Specialization or versatility is a main area of research for criminal career

theorists. Specialization is defined as the tendency to repeat the same offense type in

successive crimes (e.g., Nieuwbeerta, Blokland, Piquero, & Sweeten, 2011;

Paternoster, Brame, Piquero, Mazerolle, & Dean, 1998). Early studies indicate that

criminals are versatile, and commit a variety of crimes, rather than specialize in a

select group of crimes. Generally, all three theories contend that a specialization

offending pattern is both theoretically and empirically plausible. Issues concerning

specialization development with aging have received increasing attention (Armstrong,

2008). In the traditional criminal career view, during early stages of the criminal

career the offender samples a wide variety of offenses. He then converges on those

offenses that adhere to his taste or skills (Delisi et al., 2011). Viewed this way, later

stages of the criminal career should become more specialized. This theoretical view

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is examined in the second manuscript that was accepted for publication in Crime &

Delinquency (Yonai, Levine, & Glicksohn, 2013a) using traditional specialization-

versatility measures, such as the Forward Specialization Coefficient - FSC (Farrington

et al., 1988).

Study 3

One of the most notable versatility-specialization measures is the diversity

index. Compared to the FSC, the strengths of the diversity index are to (a) disregard

the order of offenses, (b) analyse at the individual age and not at the aggregated level;

and (c) account for all and not only the most serious first crime at a given age.

Accordingly, we examine the assumption that aging increases the likelihood of

specialization (Armstrong, 2008; Piquero et al., 1999) using the diversity index.

Unlike previous research, however, the thesis extends current knowledge by uniquely

utilizing a statistical methodology known as Hidden Markov Models to examine

versatility-specialization transition dynamics with aging. The latter argument is

expressed in the third manuscript.

Study 4

Criminal careers research highlights several other key issues relevant to the

study of persistence and the continuity of offending. These include: the heterogeneity

of criminal careers, the use of a sample rather than population-based research, the

variations in demographic and criminal risk factors across trajectory groups (Piquero

et al., 2007), and a lack of research on the association between developmental patterns

of crime and imprisonment of family members (Murray & Farrington, 2005).

Accordingly, the fourth manuscript that was accepted for publication in Crime &

Delinquency (Yonai, Levine, & Glicksohn, In Press), uniquely examined the extent to

which there exist homogeneous group of offenders based on a population-based

dataset followed for a relatively long period. The analysis also examines whether the

emerging offending trajectories are distinct and are associated with: criminal career

dimensions, demographic factors, and familial imprisonment in first-to third-degree

family relatives. Subsequently, we analyzed specialization-versatility levels across

age among the trajectory groups. The latter analysis is presented in Appendix 1 and

was not included in the original manuscript.

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Summary

This chapter overviewed theoretically, methodologically and empirically

issues in this thesis. The flow between theory and method is explained as is the flow

from studies one to four, respectively. The thesis examines the relationship between

early versatility trends and future recidivism. These observed trends during early

stages of the criminal career may change with aging into increased specialization.

These changes are further examined across the entire offender's criminal career. Next,

the transition dynamics between versatility and specialization are examined with

refined statistical methodology. Finally, the extent to which there exist homogeneous

group of offenders with varying specialization-versatility levels and different familial,

demographic, and criminological factors is explored.

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Chapter 2 - A National Population Based Examination of the

Association between Age-Versatility Trajectories and Recidivism

Rates

As suggested in the introduction (chapter 1), the present thesis focuses on the

criminal career paradigm dimension of persistence and continuity. This dimension

suggests that offenders may display different specialization-versatility offending

patterns that may predict future persistence offending behavior (i.e., different aspects

of the criminal career are associated; Monahan & Piquero, 2009). The study in

chapter 2 focuses on the relationship between specialization-versatility pattern and

persistence offending behavior (i.e., recidivism). This chapter briefly discusses the

theories that are associated with offending specialization-versatility and the

development of persistence offending behavior.

A prominent theoretical assumption among criminal career advocates is that

there is a positive association between the volume and versatility of criminal

behavior. Studying the association between different aspects of the criminal career is

relevant to theory and policy alike (Delisi et al., 2011; DeLisi & Piquero, 2011;

Farrington, 1997; Piquero et al., 2007). The basis of this relationship is well-

grounded in many theories that dispute or embrace the criminal career paradigm

(Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990; Moffitt, 1993; Moffitt et al., 2002). These theories

propose that long-term offending is associated with a diverse offending pattern. This

proposition is congruent with prior empirical research that has shown that "the trend

in diversity scores generally mirror the trends in the risk of offending" (Fergusson,

Horwood, & Nagin, 2000, p. 538). Based on these theories and current research the

proposition is examined that offenders who assume a more versatile offending

trajectory are likely to exhibit greater risk of recidivism.

Research into juvenile recidivism has shown that criminal factors, such as age

of onset and criminal history and demographic factors, such as male sex and minority

ethnic status (Baumer, 1997; Benda & Tollett, 1999; Bowles & Florackis, 2007;

Dejong, 1997; Spohn & Holleran, 2002) are associated with recidivism.

Developmental risk factors, however, are generally not considered in predicting future

recidivism. Previous research has contended that the value of incorporating

developmental predictors (also termed dynamic risk factors) in recidivism studies go

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beyond a priori risk classification of offenders (Cottle, Lee, & Heilbrun, 2001). The

identification of developmental risk factors allow for the targeting of dynamic (time-

dependent) risk-reduction intervention programs.

Collectively, the current study examines versatility trajectories that develop

during early stages of the criminal career. Pre-conviction versatility trajectories are

incorporated as developmental risk factors, and their utility in predicting recidivism is

examined. This is relevant because theory and research suggest that a persistence

offending life-style is determined during adolescence years (see for example, Moffitt,

1993). Incorporating versatility trajectories as risk factors allows predicting

recidivism while controlling for unobserved individual differences (measured through

age-versatility group membership) (Piquero, 2008), while accounting for various

documented risk factors. This is presented in the first manuscript (chapter 2) that was

published in Journal of Criminal Justice (Yonai et al., 2013b). In sum, the next

chapter examines the association between dynamic versatility trajectories that may

develop during early stages of the criminal career and future recidivism, while

controlling for 19 documented risk factors.

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Chapter 3 - Elaboration on Specialization in Crime: Disaggregating

Age Cohort Effects

The last chapter (empirical study 1) indicated that specialization-versatility

offending patterns can be represented by two latent groups labeled as the

specialization and versatility groups. These two groups and their diversification

characteristics point to the notion of versatility-specialization trends. The extent that

specialization-versatility offending patterns change across the criminal career is

examined in study 2 (chapter 3). The theories that highlight specialization-versatility

development and their empirical analysis have the potential to inform research and

policy whether offending develops systematically or in a non-random manner (Le

Blanc & Loeber, 1998; Piquero et al., 1999).

Specialization or versatility is a main area of research for criminal career

theorists. Prior research expressed its importance by indicating that "Studies of

specialization or versatility in offending careers are important ways of shedding light

on the number of dimensions underlying delinquent behavior" (Farrington et al.,

1988, p. 462). A single theoretical construct would then mean that offenders are

versatile so knowledge of the type of offense committed during a delinquent act

would not be useful to predict the subsequent offending, and interventions would need

to target general behavior. If, however, offending reflects a specific theoretical

construct, then offenders may be assumed to specialize and knowledge of the type of

offense committed during a delinquent act would predict the type of offense

committed on subsequent delinquent act (Farrington et al., 1988).

Specialization is defined as the tendency to repeat the same offense type on

successive crimes (e.g., Nieuwbeerta et al., 2011; Paternoster et al., 1998). Early

studies were based on examining specialization using transition matrices (i.e., the

joint distribution of two consecutive offence types) and comparisons of crime

involvement (Baker et al., 2013). These studies indicate that criminals are versatile,

and commit a variety of crimes, rather than specialize in a select group of crimes

(Armstrong, 2008; Armstrong & Britt, 2004; Farrington et al., 1988; Nieuwbeerta et

al., 2011; Piquero et al., 1999). The theoretical and practical implications of

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versatility-specialization research, however, have led researchers to assume new

methodologies and refine their strategic techniques to examine the presence of

specialization. These studies have since revealed a slight yet significant tendency to

specialize (Armstrong, 2008; Armstrong & Britt, 2004; Guerette, Stenius, &

McGloin, 2005; Lynam, Piquero, & Moffitt, 2004; Osgood & Schreck, 2007; Piquero

et al., 1999).

Theoretically, the taxonomic theory (Moffitt, 1993), the general theory of

crime (Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990), and the extension of the orthogenetic theory to

offending behavior (Le Blanc & Loeber, 1998), make different propositions with

respect to specialization-versatility offending pattern. There are, however, some

similarities that may reconcile the debate regarding specialization-versatility across

theories. Taxonomic theory assumes that offenders can be clustered into an

adolescence-limited group, or into a life-course group. The former group engages in

criminal behavior for a short and temporary period during adolescence. They are

expected to exhibit far less versatility with age (Mazerolle et al., 2000), and they tend

to demonstrate a proclivity toward specialization. The latter group embraces wide

and diverse offending activities, "…including types of crimes that are often

committed by lone offenders" (Moffitt, 1993, p. 695).

The general theory of crime indicates that offenders are generalist, committing

various types of crime. According to theory, low self-control increases the likelihood

that a person will perceive more situations as possessing criminal opportunities, and

will engage in versatile criminal behaviors (McGloin, Sullivan, Piquero, & Pratt,

2007). Low-self-control, however, suggests that offenders may display specialize

offending pattern that is a function of opportunities and circumstances and not the

characteristics of the offender (Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1994) . Given the interaction

between self-control and opportunities, it is probable that offenders will sometimes

display a specialized offending pattern (Baker et al., 2013).

The extension of the orthogenetic theory to offending assumes that

delinquency unfolds from diversification of the types of offenses at a young age, to

more stabilized and patterned type of offenses (i.e., specialization) with maturation

(Le Blanc & Loeber, 1998). Specifically, Le Blanc and Loeber contended that "… the

course of offending and deviant behavior is predictable, hierarchical, and orderly" (Le

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Blanc & Loeber, 1998, p. 118). From a criminal career point of view, this would

suggest a general switching among crime types through early stages of the criminal

career, where later stages becoming more specialized (Delisi et al., 2011).

In sum, all three theories contend that specialization in offending with

maturation is both theoretically and empirically plausible. These theoretical views are

examined in the second manuscript that was accepted for publication in Crime &

Delinquency (Yonai et al., 2013a) using traditional specialization-versatility

measures, such as the Forward Specialization Coefficient - FSC (Farrington et al.,

1988).

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Chapter 4 - Versatility and Specialization Transitions from Early

Adolescence to Early Adulthood: Hidden Markov Modelling of a

National Population-Based Juvenile Offender Dataset

In study 2 (Chapter 3) the results demonstrated a modest trend of increase

specialization from adolescence to early adulthood. This trend was based on the

Forward Specialization Coefficient (FSC) that is an aggregated measure of

specialization-versatility. This diversity measure precludes the analysis of the

transition dynamics between specialization and versatility that require an individual-

level specialization and versatility index. For example, the extent that the transition

from versatility to specialization occurs in a stage-sequential manner cannot be

examined based on this widely used method. Accordingly, the next chapter

(empirical study 3) introduces a novel methodology to examine the extent to which

specialization-versatility continuum can be represented by latent groups of offenders.

A notable aspect of this novel methodology examines the transition dynamics (i.e., the

probability of switching between the latent states) which may suggests that

specialization-versatility changes in a non-random course of development with aging.

The use of the FSC, as presented in study 2 (Chapter 3), to examine

versatility-specialization is not without limitations. The FSC collapses offenses into

an aggregated number of categories. Since the FSC is based on offense type and not

the individual offenders (Sullivan, McGloin, Pratt, & Piquero, 2006) arguments at the

individual-level are precluded. Also, the literature offers no agreed way to categorize

crime to examine versatility (Mazerolle et al., 2000). Research has shown, however,

that the number of crime categories examined has an impact on conclusions regarding

the extent of specialization or versatility (Sullivan et al., 2006). For example,

research has shown that aggregating offenses into a large number of categories (i.e.,

narrow offense schemes) may bias results and hence conclusions towards versatility,

whereas fewer categories (i.e., broader offense schemes) may bias the results and

hence conclusions toward more specialization than versatility (Sullivan et al., 2006).

This is because the target for repeat offending within a broad offense scheme (e.g.,

property category) is much larger than a specific crime (e.g., auto vehicle theft).

The theoretical and practical implications of versatility-specialization research

has led researchers to use new methodologies and refine their statistical techniques to

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examine the presence of specialization (Guerette et al., 2005; Lynam et al., 2004;

McGloin, Sullivan, & Piquero, 2009; Osgood & Schreck, 2007). For these reasons

researchers use other versatility-specialization measures. One of the most notable

versatility-specialization measures is the diversity index (Mazerolle et al., 2000;

McGloin et al., 2009). Compared to the FSC that analyzes aggregate level offenses,

the advantages of the diversity index are to (a) analyse offenders at the individual age

level; and (b) account for all and not only the most serious first crime at a given age.

Accordingly, the assumption that aging increases the likelihood of specialization

(Armstrong, 2008; Piquero et al., 1999) is examined using the diversity index in the

next chapter.

Unlike previous research, however, the next chapter extends current

methodological approaches to versatility-specialization by using Hidden Markov

Models (HMMs) to examine versatility-specialization transition dynamics with aging.

This methodology allows for parsimonious representation of offending pattern in

similar vein as put forward by the trajectory analysis (Nagin, 1999, 2005). Unlike

trajectory analysis that does not permit offenders to switch between groups (e.g., from

versatility to specialization), in HMMs offenders may alter their course of offending

by changing group membership (Bijleveld & Mooijaart, 2003).

In sum, the next chapter (study 3) extends the existing literature by using

HMMs advantages to achieve parsimonious description of specialization-versatility

continuum. Also, based on the advantages of HMMs, study 3 examines whether

offenders switch between specialization and versatility abruptly or by assuming a

stage-sequential developmental course. The competing theoretical frameworks tested

in the chapter are the general theory of crime (Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990),

taxonomic theory (Moffitt, 1993), and the extension of the orthogenetic theory to

criminal behavior (Le Blanc & Loeber, 1998).

 

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Chapter 5 - Trajectories of Crime and Familial Characteristics: A

Longitudinal National Population-Based Study

The previous chapter examined specialization-versatility offending pattern

across the criminal career. It identified that versatility-specialization transition

dynamics are best described by three latent states of (versatility, inter-mediate, and

specialization states). Theoretically and empirically, however, offense variety (i.e.,

specialization-versatility) and offending frequency are positively related (Monahan &

Piquero, 2009). For example, the taxonomic theory (Moffitt, 1993) argue that life-

course persistent offenders exhibit high-rate offending frequency and participate in a

wide variety of offense types. The general theory of crime (Gottfredson & Hirschi,

1990) makes a similar assumption, where offenders who engage in many offenses will

also engage in a variety of criminal acts (see also, Monahan & Piquero, 2009).

Accordingly, the next chapter examines whether there exist homogeneous groups of

offenders based on offending frequency and across their criminal career.

Study 3 (chapter 4) considered the type of offense committed by the offender,

and so HMMs were a suitable methodology for latent longitudinal analysis of

offending pattern (see also, Bijleveld & Mooijaart, 2003). The next chapter (study 4)

aims to identify homogeneous offender groups from adolescence to mid-adulthood,

based on their offending frequency. Theoretically-driven, research suggests that

group-based trajectory analysis (Nagin, 2005) is the most suitable framework to

analyze longitudinal crime data based on offending frequency. This also facilitates

the comparison of the current research and past results (Bijleveld & Mooijaart, 2003;

Jennings & Reingle, 2012).

The next chapter (study 4) uses group-based trajectory analysis to examine the

association between homogeneous groups of offenders based on their offending-

frequency and their specialization-versatility levels and other risk factors. Special

emphasis is given to the association between long-tern offending pattern and

imprisonment of first- second- and third degree familial relatives. This is relevant

since research based on small samples has emphasized, for example, that parental

imprisonment increases the likelihood of delinquency (Huebner & Gustafson, 2007;

Murray & Farrington, 2008). Accordingly, the next chapter aims to contribute to the

80  

literature by examining the extent to which criminal trajectories are distinct and

associated with: criminal career dimensions, demographic factors, and familial

imprisonment in up to third-degree family relations.

Proponents of the criminal career paradigm embrace the notion that offenders

can be clustered into a number of distinct groups that can be prospectively identified

and studied based on their offending frequency (Blokland et al., 2005). Early research

findings (Wolfgang, Figlio, & Sellin, 1972) contribute to the belief that offenders

have distinct offending pattern, and that there exist a small group of chronic offenders

that are responsible for a large portion of crime. Various taxonomic or typological

theories have emerged postulating that "…offender population is composed of

subgroups that follow distinctive trajectories of offending that themselves may reflect

different etiologies" (Blokland et al., 2005, p. 920).

The relevant theoretical framework for the current research is based on three

prominent theories. First, the taxonomic theory (Moffitt, 1993), which suggests that

offenders can be classified into two distinct groups based on their criminal behavior.

Second, the general theory of crime (Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990) which suggests

that regardless of stable between individual differences, as offenders age, the rate of

offending decline due to their self-control. Third, the extension of the orthogenetic

theory to criminal behavior (Le Blanc & Loeber, 1998), which suggests that

delinquency unfolds from diversification of the types of offenses at a young age, to

more stabilized and patterned type of offenses (i.e., specialization) with maturation.

To test these theoretical prospects study 4, through the use of longitudinal data that

spawn across the offender's life from childhood to mid-adulthood, examines within-

individual changes in criminal offending using trajectory studies (e.g., Bersani,

Nieuwbeerta, & Laub, 2009; Nagin, 1999, 2005; Sampson & Laub, 2003).

Examination of criminal careers research highlights a lack of research on the

association between developmental patterns of crime and imprisonment of family

members (Murray & Farrington, 2005). Theory and only UK-based research,

however, suggest that parental imprisonment is a traumatic event that has a unique

separation effect. Parental imprisonment increases deviant rearing conditions that

exacerbate the risk of a persistent offending life-style (Juby & Farrington, 2001;

Murray & Farrington, 2008; Murray, Janson, & Farrington, 2007). Research indicates

that imprisoned parents have little opportunity to participate in family life, making

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positive social control and parental attachment difficult (Murray & Farrington, 2008).

Accordingly, theory and select research suggest that separation from the family due to

imprisonment is likely to be associated with developing a trajectory of chronic

persistent offending (Moffitt, 1993). This proposition is tested in the next chapter.

In sum, the next chapter utilizes trajectory-group based analysis to identify

homogeneous offender groups based on their offense frequency from adolescence to

early adulthood and characterizes the trajectory groups. Based on population based

Israeli data, study 4 uniquely elaborates the existing literature in three ways: (a) uses

trajectory-group modeling for comparability with prior studies to test theories (b)

uniquely examines familial imprisonment in first-to third-degree family relations, and

(c) examines in subsequent analysis the extent to which homogeneous offender

groups differ in their specialization-versatility offending patterns while controlling for

the age of each offense. These elaborations contributed to the acceptance of the next

chapter (empirical study 4) for publication in Crime & Delinquency (Yonai et al., In

Press).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Chapter 6 - Discussion

The current chapter aims to consolidate, overview, and summarize the primary

findings of this thesis. Specifically, it examines the primary findings on persistent

and continuity within the context of the three theories examined herein, and within the

criminal career paradigm. This chapter ends by presenting the thesis limitations,

providing possible directions for future studies, offering policy implications and

discussing conclusions. Before continuing, however, a summary of the four primary

empirical studies in this thesis appears to be appropriate.

The results of the first empirical study in this thesis (Yonai et al., 2013b)

(chapter 2) showed that offenders can be classified into two latent groups based on

their age-versatility curve, and that the emerging versatility groups can predict future

recidivism. This effect persisted after controlling for a number of documented risk

factors. Generally, these results may be considered to be consistent with the

taxonomic theory (Moffitt, 1993). The second empirical study (Yonai et al., 2013a)

(chapter 3) showed descriptively that there is a modest tendency of increased

specialization with maturation, and that the attrition of infrequent offenders over an

extensive period did not influence specialization trends among high risk youth, partly

supporting the general theory of crime (Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990), as well as the

extension of the orthogenetic principle to criminal offending (Le Blanc & Loeber,

1998). The third empirical study (chapter 4) examined the transition dynamics

between versatility and specialization using Hidden Markov Models (HMMs).

Results showed that (a) the quantitative aspect of versatility-specialization transition

dynamics can be described by three latent states termed versatility- intermediate; (b)

the switch between states for some offenders did not occur abruptly, but rather in a

stage-sequential process; and (c) there was a general proclivity of switching into the

versatility state during adolescence and early adulthood. These results are consistent

with the extension of the orthogenetic theory to criminal behavior (Le Blanc &

Loeber, 1998), and the general theory of crime (Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990).

Results from study 4 (Yonai et al., In Press) (chapter 5) indicated that juvenile

offenders assume five different trajectories of criminal development from early

adolescence to mid adulthood. Also, results indicated that imprisonment of parents,

107  

brothers and sisters was associated with developing a trajectory of persistent

offending. Subsequent analysis of specialization-versatility levels across trajectory

groups indicated that more persistent offenders showed higher versatility levels

compared to low-rate offenders (see appendix 1). These results may be considered to

be consistent with the taxonomic theory. In sum, inconsistencies between the

empirical results in this thesis require theoretical integration.

Theoretical integration and contribution

As was mentioned in the introduction (chapter 1), three theories aim to explain

persistent and continuity based on a specialization-versatility offending pattern and

offense frequency. These theories include the general theory of crime (Gottfredson &

Hirschi, 1990), taxonomic theory (Moffitt, 1993), and the extension of the

orthogenetic theory (Werner, 1948) to criminal offending (Le Blanc & Loeber, 1998).

Across the studies in the current thesis, different methodologies, statistical techniques

and outcomes produce divergent results that correspond to different theoretical

propositions in the literature.

The independent relationship between offense frequency and variety which

was observed in study 1 suggests that the versatility pattern for police contacts that

develops during early stages of offending predicts subsequent recidivism for

convictions. Assuming that a group-based trajectory analysis is a valid statistical

technique to examine homogeneous groups of offenders (Nagin, 1999), then Moffitt's

taxonomic theory may be regarded as a plausible theoretical explanation for the

emerging latent trajectory groups and hence offers an explanation of offense

frequency.

Studies 2 and 3 examine versatility. The results of those studies suggest that

although the general norm is that offenders tend to become more versatile as they age,

for some offenders specialization increased with aging. The modest trend of

increased specialization with maturation obtained in study 2 corresponds to the

propositions outlined in the general theory of crime (Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990),

and to the extension of the orthogenetic principle to criminal behavior (Le Blanc &

Loeber, 1998) (see also chapters 3 and 4).

108  

The observation that during late adulthood, as the rate of criminal behavior

declines, versatility levels tend also to decline requires explanation. The general

theory of crime states that the crime rate reduction is attributable to a reduction in

self-control (Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990). Gottfredson and Hirschi state that since

crime and analogous behaviors stem from low self-control, then, there will be much

versatility among offenders in the criminal acts in which they engage (see,

Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990, p. 91). Accordingly, a reduction in self-control will

result in an offending versatility decrement. The extension of the orthogenetic

principle to criminal behavior suggests that the initial period of criminal behavior may

be general and non-specific (i.e., versatile), and later periods of criminal behavior

become more patterned (i.e., specialized) with maturation (Le Blanc & Loeber, 1998).

This suggests that offenders, during early periods of their criminal career, should

experience a wide array of criminal behavior, followed by a gradual narrowing of the

offense repertoire, especially among more persistent offenders (see also, Piquero et

al., 1999). Also, study 3 suggests that the development of versatility-specialization

consists of multiple distinct states. These states were termed versatility- inter-

mediate- and specialization states. Although some offenders switch between

versatility and specialization the switch did not occur abruptly but rather in a stage-

sequential procedure. This sequential development is consistent with the extension of

the orthogenetic theory to criminal behavior (Le Blanc & Loeber, 1998) (See chapter

4).

The current thesis results (chapter 5) converge with past trajectory studies in

terms of the number of latent trajectory groups and their offending pattern (D'Unger,

Land, McCall, & Nagin, 1998; Piquero et al., 2007). The correspondence between the

current empirical results and theoretical propositions is at issue. Generally, the

current research results highlight the criminological debate between typological

theories and "mono-causal theories" (Blokland et al., 2005, p. 922). The former

emphasize the presence of homogeneous clusters of offenders, whereas the latter deny

their existence. For example, based on cumulative evidence from trajectory studies,

Moffitt and her colleagues (Moffitt et al., 2002) extended the taxonomic theory to

include two additional trajectory groups in addition to the life-course and

adolescence-limited offenders groups. The two additional groups were labeled as

recoveries who display antisocial behavior during childhood and at most moderate

109  

antisocial behavior during adolescence, and abstainers who refrain from antisocial

behavior. Mono-causal theories, such as the general theory of crime (Gottfredson &

Hirschi, 1990) contend that the age-crime curve is invariant and that crime declines

with aging for all offenders. Reconciliation between the typological and mono-causal

theories depends on the acceptance of latent longitudinal methodologies as a valid

statistical methodology to examine longitudinal offending patterns.

The group-based trajectory modeling can be considered a valid methodology

to examine longitudinal crime data based on the following arguments. First, both

typological and mono-causal theories accept the existence of persistent individual

differences in criminal involvement. These individual differences are directly related

to the issue of "persistent unobserved heterogeneity" (Nagin & Land, 1993, p. 336).

In this sense, the group-based trajectory analysis is designed to control for persistent

unobserved heterogeneity by assigning offenders into latent groups based on their

offending frequency. Second, there is a clear association between specified-observed

individual characteristics and distinct offending trajectory. Group-based trajectory

modeling accounts for observed individual characteristics (e.g., social factors and

cognitive functioning) in model estimation, and so allows for the generalization of

findings (Nagin & Land, 1993). Third, the group-based trajectory methodology can

be accepted by mono-causal theories such as the general theory of crime by

suggesting that trajectories may reflect self-control fluctuations across offenders

(Nagin & Land, 1993). Based on the general theory of crime, self-control is an

attribute (which is highly skewed) that all people share to a varying degree (Hirschi &

Gottfredson, 1993). Criminal involvement according to this proposition is "…a

reflection of a continuous (but skewed) population distribution of self-control" (Nagin

& Land, 1993, p. 330). These fluctuations may result in varying levels of criminal

involvement which can be examined by longitudinal (latent variable) methodologies

like the group-based trajectory analysis.

The thesis also converges with previous research suggesting that given the

interaction between self-control and opportunities as a predictor of crime, it is

probable that offenders will sometimes display a specialized offending pattern (Baker

et al., 2013). Collectively, it is suggested that each of the theories contribute to the

explanation of the current thesis findings. For example, generally, certain individual

characteristics predict offending trajectory over age (Nagin & Farrington, 1992),

110  

which may result in different latent trajectory groups as suggested by typological

theory. Their versatility levels increase during adolescence and early adulthood

which correspond to the propositions outlined by mono-causal theories like the

general theory of crime (Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990). For some offenders,

whenever a switch between versatility and specialization arises it happens in a stage-

sequential manner which corresponds to the extension of the orthogenetic theory to

criminal behavior (Le Blanc & Loeber, 1998).

Contribution to the criminal career paradigm

The current thesis contributes to the criminal career paradigm

methodologically and empirically. Methodologically, the current thesis introduces

HMMs as a novel application of an advanced statistical methodology to analyse

switching in specialization-versatility offending patterns with latent longitudinal

techniques. Traditionally, studies used group-based trajectory modeling (Nagin,

2005) to examine theories like Moffitt's taxonomic theory that is founded on the

criminal career paradigm (Baker et al., 2013). These studies aim to achieve a

parsimonious description of offending pattern by empirically identifying

homogeneous groups of offenders. Compared to group-based trajectory modelling,

HMMs may be more suitable to analyse longitudinal offending data in some

instances. For example, unlike group-based trajectory models, HMMs allow

individuals to switch between latent states (i.e., versatility or specialization) as they

age, and in so doing estimate transition matrices. Also, HMMs permit hypothesis

tests on stage-sequential development (Bijleveld & Mooijaart, 2003). By imposing

several restrictions, HMMs can test a model in which each offender’s criminal career

develops from a less to more or a more to less violent types of crime.

Empirically, the current research highlights the appropriateness of controlling

for latent age-versatility groups that develop during early stages of the criminal career

to predict future recidivism (see chapter 2). Controlling for latent age-versatility

groups is directly related to the problem of unobserved individual differences (Nagin

& Land, 1993) which reflect the impact that unmeasured individual or environmental

factors have on individual rates of offending within the criminal career paradigm.

111  

Limitations

The current results are not without limitations. First, the results are based on

official and not self-report data. Prior research indicates moderate agreement between

self- and official- data sources (Mulvey et al., 2010). Research suggests that applying

trajectory analysis to self-report data may result in more groups compared to official

data (Jennings & Reingle, 2012; Wiesner, Capaldi, & Kim, 2007). Reasons for this

are that information on undetected, and more frequent (but less severe) types of

crimes are assessed by self-report compared with official crime data. Accordingly,

the use of official data in the current study may underestimate the number of age-

versatility trajectory groups. The timing of official-report data, however, may be

more accurate than self-report data that are subject to recall bias which may increase

over a large number of years (up to 13 years in the current study). Second, past

research has pointed to the sensitivity of the trajectory analysis methodology when

considering the length of the follow-up period, and the inclusion of incarceration (to

account for exposure time on the streets, Eggleston, Laub, & Sampson, 2004; Piquero

et al., 2001).

Third, interpreting and naming the latent states or groups in HMMs and group-

based trajectory modeling is subjectively based on examining the response properties

within each latent category. This is illustrated by the groups' "distinctness" problem

(Skardhamar, 2010) which suggests that latent groups are required to assume different

behavioral trajectories in order for an efficient labeling assignment to take place. To

date, no objective method has been proposed to aid the naming of latent states or

groups. The lack of an objective naming procedure highlights the methodology

sensitivity to subjective considerations. Finally, although the current study is

longitudinal, causal conclusions are not possible without an experimental study

design. An experimental manipulation, however, would involve making one group

criminal and another not. Hence, no causal conclusions are possible.

Future studies

To account for the limitations in HMMs and group-based trajectory modeling,

future population-based research is appropriate to employ longer follow-up periods to

assess the robustness of these findings. This may capture late-onset of crime (i.e.,

112  

post adolescence). Future research may also include report data from another source

(e.g., peers, victims) on criminal behavior to achieve a more comprehensive

representation of offending behavior and to identify the appropriate number of

trajectory groups. A relevant, but neglected issue focuses on the relationship between

victimization and offending trajectories over time. This is relevant since research

generally indicates that criminal victimization increases the likelihood of the victims

becoming offenders (see for example, Lauritsen, Sampson, & Laub, 1991).

A relatively new dimension of criminal offending that merits examination

focuses on intergenerational patterns of offending behavior (Thornberry, 2009).

Intergenerational research appears likely to aid in understanding the extent that

offending trajectories as well as versatility and specialization reflect intergenerational

trajectories of the offender's families (in terms of how far does the "apple fall far from

the tree").

Policy implications

From a public policy perspective, the distinction between groups of offenders

highlights the appropriateness of differential treatment and correctional needs for

different groups (Vaughn, DeLisi, Beaver, Perron, & Abdon, 2012). For example,

compared to the remaining groups, the versatility group may be an at-risk group based

on criminogenic and social risk factors. This also highlights risk-periods where

offenders are likely to be most active, most notably during adolescence and early

adulthood where versatility levels peak. These are risk-periods that the system

appears to need to consider in taking preventive measures. Prior research suggests

that parental imprisonment may result in severe parent-child contact conditions

(Murray & Farrington, 2005), which may lead to antisocial behavior in the next

generation. Policy makers may use intermediate sanctions, such as house arrests, and

increased electronic monitoring for offenders who are at increased risk for developing

persistent offending pattern. These sanctions have been previously recommended to

be appropriate alternative forms of punishment (Tonry, 1998).

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Conclusions

In conclusion, despite its limitations the current thesis contributes to the

criminological literature on offending persistent and continuity in the following ways.

First, the thesis indicates that controlling for latent (i.e., unobserved individual

differences) age-versatility groups warrants consideration in recidivism studies. This

is based on the result that the latent age-versatility pattern that emerges during early

stages of the criminal career predicted future recidivism, a finding that persisted after

accounting for a number of documented risk factors in a population-based data

highlighting its robustness. Second, the current thesis indicates that from a

descriptive point of view, specialization-versatility levels modestly increased with

aging for early age of onset cohorts. This trend is also based on the result of

multivariate analysis indicating that as age increased, versatility levels decreased

(which mark an increase in specialization levels). Third, the current thesis utilized a

rather novel approach to analyze the quantitative aspect of versatility-specialization

trends. This approach uncovered the transition dynamics between specialization and

versatility and indicated that the quantitative aspect of versatility-specialization

transition dynamics can be described by three latent states termed versatility-

intermediate- and specialization states. This approach also indicated that the switch

between versatility and specialization did not occur abruptly, and that offenders

switch from versatility to specialization with aging. Fourth, the positive relationship

between offending frequency and variety and the appropriateness of the group-based

methodology to uncover latent offending groups based on their offense frequency,

resulted in five distinct groups. Generally, persistent offending groups are associated

with imprisonments of parents, brothers and sisters, and with higher versatility levels

compared to the low-rate offending group.

Collectively, this thesis highlights how comprehensive (population-based)

methodology, advanced statistics (i.e., latent modeling) and competing theories of

crime (Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990; Le Blanc & Loeber, 1998; Moffitt, 1993) are

informative of one-another in explaining specific aspects of continuity and persistence

in the criminal career paradigm.

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Appendix 1 - Analysis of Versatility Levels Across the Trajectory

Groups

In a subsequent analysis, versatility levels across age among the trajectory

groups were examined. The original data was extracted from all juveniles offenders

(n=18,915) from 1996 to 2008 recorded in the National Crime Registry of the State of

Israel. Trajectory analysis identified five distinct groups: low-rate (n=14,541,

76.88%), high-rate adolescence-peak (n=728, 3.85%), low-rate adolescence-peak

(n=1,934, 10.22%), high-rate chronic (n=610, 3.22%) and low-rate chronic (n=1,102,

5.83%). Following the procedures outlined elsewhere (McGloin et al., 2007), we

considered eligible periods, in which person-by-age periods that did not contain two

or more offenses were excluded from analysis. This procedure reduced the number of

offenders to 17,728 offenders (93.7% of the original convicted offenders in the data

registry). The distribution of offenders across groups resembled the original

distribution: low-rate (75.3%), high-rate adolescence-peak (4.1%), low-rate

adolescence-peak (10.9%), high-rate chronic (3.4%) and low-rate chronic (6.2%).

In this chapter a time-independent measure of offending versatility-

specialization was computed for each offender's person-by-age period, using the

diversity measure (Mazerolle et al., 2000; McGloin et al., 2007). The diversity

measure is calculated as

(3) ∑=

−=M

mmpD

1

21

where equals the proportion of offenses in crime category . In the

current study, crime categories consist of aggravated assault, simple assault, drugs,

burglary, auto vehicle theft, larceny theft, public order, and miscellaneous offenses.

The minimum value of the diversity measure is 0, which represents complete

specialization, whereas the maximum value of the diversity measure is 0.875, which

represents high versatility (

p m

Dmax = (k-1)/k where k represents the total number of

categories, Mazerolle et al., 2000).

119  

Analytic strategy

The present analysis examines whether the specialization-versatility levels

across age for the high-rate adolescence-peak, low-rate adolescence-peak, high-rate

chronic, and low-rate chronic groups significantly differs from specialization-

versatility levels across age for the low-rate group of offenders. Specialization-

versatility differences between the trajectory groups were examined using

Generalized Estimation Equation models (GEE) (Liang & Zeger, 1986). The GEE

procedure is a well-suited method for analyzing longitudinal-based data where the

within-subject response variable is non-normal (see also, Everitt & Hothorn, 2006).

In the current analysis, age and trajectory group membership are the independent

variables whereas specialization-versatility level is the dependent variable. To

express the differences between the trajectory groups they were coded as dummy

variables. Note that since there are five trajectory groups', four dummy variables are

required to appropriately represent the entire information. As indicated previously,

the low-rate trajectory group is the reference category in the current analysis. The

analysis was performed using the geepack package (Højsgaard, Halekoh, & Yan,

2006) in the R-language for statistical computing (R Development Core Team, 2011).

Results

Figure 1 displays the mean versatility levels across age among the versatility

groups. Lower versatility values suggest that offenders are more specialized whereas

higher values indicate that offenders are more versatile. Results indicate that

persistent offenders display higher versatility levels compared to low-rate offenders

during adolescence years. Also, across groups, versatility levels increased during

adolescence years followed by a decrease in versatility levels (i.e., more specialized)

during early adulthood.

120  

Figure 1. Mean Versatility Levels Across Age Among the trajectory Groups

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

0.55

0.6

0.65

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

Mean Ve

rsatility

Age

Low‐rate High‐rate adolescence‐peakedLow‐rate adolescence‐peaked High‐rate chronicLow‐rate chronic

Analysis of within-individual specialization-versatility levels across age and trajectory

groups using GEE modeling indicated that there are significant (p<.001) differences

between the more persistent offenders compared to the low-rate group in their

specialization-versatility levels (see Table 1).

Table 1. Generalized Estimation Equations results for the Trajectory Groups

Estimate SE Wald

Intercept 0.4843351 0.0058454 6865.40*

Age -0.0020850 0.0003154 43.69*

Low-Rate (Baseline category)

Low-Rate Adolescence-Peaked 0.0633572 0.0032675 375.97*

High-Rate Adolescence-Peaked 0.0874007 0.0044601 384.01*

Low-Rate Chronic 0.0738361 0.0036135 417.52*

High-Rate Chronic 0.1112167 0.0046085 582.39*

*p<0.0001

121  

Results displayed in Table 1 suggest that the estimated specialization-versatility levels

for the persistent offender group are significantly higher than the low-rate offender

group. For example, the estimated specialization-versatility levels by age for the

high-rate chronic offenders are 0.111 higher than the low-rate offenders. Similarly,

the estimated specialization-versatility levels across ages for the high-rate

adolescence-peaked offenders are 0.0874 higher than the low-rate offenders. Results

also suggest that age has a significant, albeit modest, negative effect on specialization-

versatility levels across age. This suggests that aging brings about a modest decline in

versatility levels.

122  

תקציר

התיזה הנוכחית בוחנת את ממד העקביות וההמשכיות בביצוע עבירות פליליות במסגרת

פרדיגמה זו מתארת את התפתחות העבריינות במונחים של . הפרדיגמה של הקריירה הפלילית

הפלילית והפסקת עבריינות משך הקריירה, )רצידיביזם(ביצוע עבירות חוזרות , שיעורי עבריינות

)DeLisi & Piquero, 2011( . על רקע זה בולטת התפיסה הסוברת כי ניתן ליצור קלסיפיקציות

לפי גישה זו ניתן לשייך . או אשכולות של עבריינים בהתבסס על שיעור וקצב ביצוע עבירותיהם

או תדירותעל פי קצבעבריינים למספר קבוצות קטן בהתבסס על קווי מתאר דומים הנקבעים

לגישה זו יישומים משמעותיים בהתאמת דוקטרינות טיפול .)Nagin, 2005( ביצוע עבירותיהם

לזיהוי עבריינים כרוניים בשלב מוקדם של הקריירה , למשל. בעבריינים למאפייניהם האישיותיים

טיפול באופן שכן היא מאפשרת להתאים את תכניות ה, הפלילית שלהם יש משמעות חשובה

תפיסה מרכזית . טווחשימנעו מעבריינים השייכים לקבוצה זו לפתח קריירה פלילית ארוכת

נוספת הנהוגה בקרב חסידי הקריירה הפלילית גורסת כי מאפיין בולט נוסף הבא לידי ביטוי

בדפוס הפשיעה בהיבט התמחות או וורסטיליות במהלך התפתחות הקריירה הפלילית הוא שינוי

,.Piquero et al( לאורך הקריירה הפליליתבדפוס זהוהשינויים החלים עה שמפגין העברייןבפשי

רוב המחקרים הראו כי מרבית העבריינים הם וורסטיליים ומיעוטם נוטים להתמחות .)2001

התפתחו מתודולוגיות זהבשל חשיבותו התיאורטית והפרקטית של נושא , יחד עם זאת. בפשיעה

את הקובעים המאפיינים הדינאמיים הימצאות התמחות בפשיעה ואת מחקר חדשות שבחנו את

ההסתברות שדפוס הפשיעה ישתנה מדפוס פשיעה התמחותי לדפוס פשיעה וורסטילי ולהיפך

)Baker et al., 2013(.

התיזה הנוכחית בוחנת ארבעה היבטים הקשורים לממד העקביות וההמשכיות בביצוע

ששלושה עבירות ולשתי התפיסות המרכזיות המאפיינות פרדיגמה זו באמצעות ארבעה מאמרים

פשיעה בוחן את הקשר בין דפוסי המאמר הראשון . מהם התקבלו לפרסום בכתבי עת מדעיים

ם הניתנים לאיתור בשלבי הקריירה הפלילית המוקדמים לבין חבוייהתמחותיים או וורסטיליים

נושא זה הנו רלוונטי שכן . ביצוע עבירות חוזרות בשלבים מאוחרים יותר של הקריירה הפלילית

יצוע העבירות לבין מידת תדירות בתיאוריות ומחקרים שונים גורסים כי קיים קשר בין

היבט שני . )Monahan & Piquero, 2009( ייןהוורסטיליות המופגנת על ידי העברההתמחות או

בין גיל ההתבגרות בפשיעההוורסטיליותההתמחות ובוחן את התנודתיות העשויה להיווצר ברמת

א 

המידה בה תנודתיות זו תואמת את .)Armstrong, 2008( לבין גילאי הבגרות המוקדמים

היבט שלישי בוחן את . נבחנת במאמר השני )DeLisi & Piquero, 2011( הציפיות התיאורטיות

בשונה מן המאמר . דפוס פשיעה התמחותי לבין דפוס פשיעה וורסטיליהדינמיקה הקיימת בין

המאמר השלישי , וורסטיליות בפשיעה באמצעות מדד אגרגטיביהתמחות או השני בו נמדדה

ברמת העבריין ועושה שימוש בשיטת ניתוח בפשיעההוורסטיליותההתמחות או מגדיר את מידת

לבחון האם הממד הכמותי של התמחות בפשיעה מכיל בכדי ) שרשראות מרקוב חבויות(חדשה

איתור המצבים . מה מאפיין כל מצב ומהי ההסתברות למעבר ממצב אחד למשנהו, ם חבוייםמצבי

סוגי העבירות שבוצעו על ידי בחינת החבויים בממד הכמותי של התמחות בפשיעה מבוסס על

ההיבט הרביעי בוחן את המידה בה ניתן לאתר קבוצות הומוגניות של עבריינים על בסיס . העבריין

נעשה , שתוצאותיו מופיעות במאמר הרביעי, ניתוח זה. שבוצעו על ידםתדירות העבירות

שסופו ) Group-based Trajectory Analysis (באמצעות ניתוח מסלול ההתפתחות הפלילי

. אשכולות הומוגניים של עבריינים בעלי דפוס התפתחות עברייני דומהביצירת

אחת ההנחות הקיימות בפרדיגמה של הקריירה הפלילית היא שקיים קשר בין תדירות

לאורך הקריירה וורסטיליות שיפגין העבריין או ההתמחותהיצוע העבירות לבין מידת בוהיקף

רוב התיאוריות והמחקרים האמפיריים גורסים שעבריינים המבצעים עבירות . הפלילית שלו

הסוגיה , אשר על כן. )Fergusson et al., 2000( וס פשיעה וורסטילילאורך זמן ייטו להפגין דפ

דפוסי פשיעה בעלי בדקה את יחסי הגומלין בין )Yonai et al., 2013b( שנבחנה במאמר הראשון

אופי התמחותי או וורסטילי שהתפתחו בשלבי הקריירה הפלילית המוקדמים לבין התפתחות

זה הנוכחית ינושא זה נבחן בת ).כלומר רצידיביזם(קריירה פלילית ארוכה ועקבית מאוחר יותר

& Monahan( ומחקרים אמפיריים )Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990(מכיוון שתיאוריות

Piquero, 2009( חיובי בין תדירות ביצוע עבירות פליליות לבין התפתחות גרסו כי קיים קשר

כי אורך חיים עברייני מושפע ממאפייני טענו תיאוריות אלהבנוסף .דפוס פשיעה וורסטילי

איתור דפוסי הפשיעה .)Moffitt, 1993( הקריירה הפלילית בשלבים הראשונים בגיל ההתבגרות

Group-Based( באמצעות שיטת ניתוח מסלולי התפתחות חבוייםהראשוןנעשה במאמר

Trajectory Analysis, Nagin, 2005( . תכליתה של שיטה זו היא לאתר קבוצות חבויות בעלות

הקריירה הפלילית ולשלבם בשלבים הראשונים שלוורסטילי דומה או דפוס פשיעה התמחותי

בשונה ממחקרים .ם בשלב מאוחר יותר של הקריירה הפליליתכגורמי סיכון לניבוי רצידיביז

ב 

Bowles( פליליים או אישיותיים, המנבאים רצידיביזם על בסיס גורמי סיכון דמוגרפיםאחרים

& Florackis, 2007( , באופן ייחודי גורמי סיכון דינאמיים הבאים לידי הראשוןמשלב המאמר

לצורך יים או וורסטיליים התמחותי פשיעהאיתור קבוצות חבויות בעלות דפוסאמצעות ביטוי ב

.ניבוי רצידיביזם

אומטרת המאמר השני היא לבחון שינויים העשויים לחול בדפוס הפשיעה ההתמחותי

התמחות בפשיעה לעומת . הוורסטילי מגיל ההתבגרות ועד לגילאי הבגרות המוקדמים

ומרבית , וורסטיליות בפשיעה הנו אחד הנושאים הנחקרים ביותר בספרות הקרימינולוגית

להפגין דפוס פשיעה וורסטילי לאורך הקריירה הפלילית נוטיםהמחקרים מצאו כי רוב העבריינים

מחקרים הבוחנים התמחות לעומת וורסטיליות בפשיעה מהווים דרך להבנת הממדים . שלהם

אם קיים ממד אחד , למשל. )Farrington et al., 1988( המרכיבים את ההתנהגות הפלילית

לפשיעה שהרי אז עבריינים יהיו וורסטיליים וידע על העבירה הקודמת לא יסייע בניבוי העבירה

אם להתנהגות פלילית מספר ממדים והתנהגות פלילית משקפת ממד , לעומת זאת. הבאה שלהם

חו בביצוע עבירות וידע על העבירה הקודמת שביצע העבריין פלילי מסוים שהרי אז עבריינים יתמ

התמחות בפשיעה מוגדרת בספרות . יסייע בניבוי עבירתו הבאה ובתכנון תכניות מניעה וטיפול

הקרימינולוגית כנטייה של העבריין לבצע אותה עבירה או קבוצת עבירות מאותו סוג לאורך זמן

)Nieuwbeerta et al., 2011(. ראשונים שבחנו נושא זה עשו שימוש במטריצות מעבר המחקרים ה

לשם יצירת ערכים המבטאים את מידת ) Transition matrices (או מטריצות מתחלפות

לקביעת ששימשאחד המדדים הנפוצים ביותר . )Farrington et al., 1988( ההתמחות בפשיעה

Forward Specialization מידת ההתמחות בפשיעה היה מדד מקדם ההתמחות בפשיעה

Coefficient – FSC )Farrington et al., 1988(. איתור היה נושא נוסף שנחקר בהקשר זה

אחת הגישות . )Armstrong, 2008( גיל העברייןעם העלייה בשינויים בדפוסי ההתמחות בפשיעה

להסבר שינויים אלה גורסת כי בתחילת הקריירה הפלילית של העבריין קיימת נטייה לבצע מגוון

חל צמצום במגוון העבירות אותם בוחר עם התפתחות הקריירה הפלילית של העבריין . של עבירות

המתאימות העבריין לבצע והתנהגותו הפלילית מתמקדת בביצוע מספר עבירות מצומצם

בחינת השינויים העשויים לחול . )DeLisi & Piquero, 2011( האישי ולטעמולצרכיו, יותליכולו

יו הראו כי ניתן ליצור אשכולות של בדפוס הפשיעה מהווה המשך למאמר הראשון שממצא

.וורסטילי בגיל ההתבגרות או העבריינים על בסיס תמורות החלות בדפוס הפשיעה ההתמחותי

ג 

Le, לדוגמה( שונות להנחות תיאורטיותתואמיםפשיעה החלים בדפוסי השינויים ה ההמידה ב

Blanc & Loeber, 1998( באה לידי ביטוי במאמר השני )Yonai et al., 2013a(.

מטרת המאמר השלישי היא לבחון את המאפיינים הדינאמיים העשויים להיווצר במעבר

הצורך בבחינת השינויים הדינאמיים . ולהפךוורסטילילדפוס פשיעה התמחותי מדפוס פשיעה

ההתמחות מה מסוימת של עליה ברמתעולה כתוצאה מממצאי המאמר השני שהראו כי ישנה מג

-האם דפוס פשיעה התמחותי, מגמה זו מעלה מספר שאלות כגון. הפשיעה עם העלייה בגיל

אם אכן קיימים מצבים חבויים ? וורסטילי ניתן להבניה באמצעות מספר מצבים חבויים

ניח כי האם ניתן לה? מהן ההסתברויות למעבר ממצב אחד למשנהו, המאפיינים דפוס פשיעה זה

אם אכן ? פשיעה יכולה להתפתח מוורסטיליות להתמחות בפשיעה עם העלייה בגיל העבריין

פשיעה עשויה להתפתח מוורסטיליות להתמחות האם התפתחות זו חלה באופן פתאומי או

שנעשה בו שימוש במאמר , FSC – ה מדדשאלות אלה אינן ניתנות למענה באמצעות ? הדרגתית

מדד זה לוקח בחשבון , בנוסף .אגרגטיביתהאו וורסטיליות בפשיעה ברמה בוחן התמחות ה, השני

רק את העבירה החמורה ביותר שביצע העבריין ואינו מביא לידי ביטוי עבירות נוספות שבוצעו

מבצע שתי עבירות בהתנהגות נער שגונב רכב לצורך ביצוע עבירת שוד, למשל (בהתנהגות הפלילית

)FSC -ת השוד החמורה יותר נלקחת בחשבון בחישוב מדד ה אולם רק עביר, פלילית אחת

)Sullivan et al., 2006( .לא ניתן לבחון את השינויים הדינאמיים העשויים לחול , אשר על כן

שכן בחינה זו דורשת שימוש , במעבר מהתמחות לוורסטיליות בפשיעה ולהיפך עם העלייה בגיל

במדד התמחות בפשיעה ברמת העבריין וכן שיטת ניתוח המסוגלת לעמוד על השינויים הדינאמיים

שא ההתמחות לעומת וורסטיליות בפשיעה הן בהיבטים בשל חשיבות נו. המתרחשים במעבר זה

פנו חוקרים רבים לחיפוש אחר , תיאורטיים והן בהיבטים פרקטיים כגון תכנון תכניות טיפול

Osgood( שיטות ניתוח חדשות שיסייעו באיתור הימצאות התמחות בפשיעה בהתנהגות פלילית

& Schreck, 2007( .מציע שיטת ניתוח חדשה המבוססת על המאמר השלישי, באופן דומה

לבחינת הימצאות התמחות בפשיעה ) Hidden Markov Modeling (שרשראות מרקוב חבויות

המאפיינים הדינאמיים החלים בעת מעבר מההתמחות בכדי לעמוד על בהתנהגות הפלילית ו

.יות בפשיעה או להיפךלוורסטיל

מציע כי ניתן לאתר קבוצות הומוגניות של )Yonai et al., In Press( המאמר הרביעי

על בסיס דפוס הפשיעה , בין היתר, עבריינים על בסיס תדירות ביצוע עבירותיהם ולהבחין ביניהם

ד 

אמר השלישי הבניה זו מהווה המשך ישיר של המ. ההתמחותי או הוורסטילי המאפיין אותם

וורסטילי -ה ההתמחותישממצאיו העלו כי ניתן לייצג את הממד הכמותי של דפוס הפשיע

איתור . והמצב הוורסטילי- מצב הביניים-המצב ההתמחותי, באמצעות שלושה מצבים חבויים

נעשה על בסיס סוגי העבירות שבוצעו על ידי בני הנוער במאמר השלישי הקבוצות החבויות

עה קיים קשר בין התפתחות דפוס פשי, מבחינה תיאורטית ואמפירית, יחד עם זאת. העבריינים

, למשל. )Monahan & Piquero, 2009( התמחותי או וורסטילי לבין תדירות ביצוע עבירות

ר עבריינים כרוניים הנוטים לבצע עבירות בתדירות גבוהה יהיו בעלי דפוס פשיעה וורסטילי יות

בשונה מן המאמר . )Moffitt, 1993( מאשר עבריינים הנוטים לבצע עבירות בתדירות נמוכה

העבירות אותם מבצעים וגיעל ס, כאמור, בו איתור הקבוצות החבויות מבוססהשלישי

איתור . איתור קבוצות חבויות של עבריינים נעשה על בסיס תדירות ביצוע עבירותיהם, העבריינים

Group-Based Trajectory( מבוסס לרוב על שיטת ניתוח מסלולי התפתחות חבוייםזה

Analysis, Nagin, 2005( מהווה שיטה מקובלת לאיתור קבוצות חבויות על בסיס תדירות ו

לבחון את קיומן של קבוצות חבויות היאמטרת המאמר הרביעי , לפיכך. העבירותביצוע

, דמוגרפיםהמאפיינים ב את ההבדלים ביניהם ולבחוןהמבצעות עבירות בתדירות דומה

. אותןלרבות מידת ההתמחות לעומת הוורסטיליות בפשיעה המאפיינת , פלילייםהמשפחתיים וה

, הורים(דגש מיוחד ניתן לבחינת יחסי הגומלין בין הימצאותם של קרובי משפחה מדרגה ראשונה

.)Murray & Farrington, 2008( במאסר לבין התפתחות קריירה פלילית כרונית) ילדים, אחים

קיימות שלוש תיאוריות מרכזיות המנסות להסביר את ההיבטים השונים העומדים

התיאוריה הטיפולוגית. הבאות לידי ביטוי בתיזה הנוכחיתבבסיס ממד ההמשכיות והעקביות

)Moffitt, 1993( קבוצת קבוצה אחת הנה. גורסת כי ניתן להבחין בין שתי קבוצות של עבריינים

התנהגות מפגינהקבוצת עבריינים זו . )Life-course persistent offenders (העבריינים הכרוניים

סוציאלית בשלבי ילדותם המקודמים ויתכן אף כי קיימת בקרבם נטייה מוקדמת -אנטי

50% - אולם הם מבצעים כ 10%מספר העבריינים בקבוצה זו אינו עולה על . להתנהגות אלימה

נוטים לפתח , עבריינים השייכים לקבוצה מצומצמת זו מבצעים עבירות בגיל צעיר. מכלל העבירות

מתנסים במגוון רחב של עבירות ולכן , מבצעים עבירות חמורות, קריירה פלילית ענפה וממושכת

הקבוצה השנייה הנה קבוצת העבריינים שעבריינותם מוגבלת . יפגינו דפוס פשיעה וורסטילי

, קבוצה זו המהווה את רוב העבריינים). Adolescence-limited offenders (ופת התבגרותםלתק

ה 

מתחילה לבצע עבירות בגיל מאוחר יחסית כאשר הם מונעים על ידי הצורך להגדרת עצמאות

אינם עוסקים בפעילות פלילית מגוונת ולרוב נוטים להתמחות , )Moffitt, 1993( ואוטונומיה

חברי קבוצה זו . או עבירות המשחררות משליטה הורית כגון וונדליזם, בביצוע עבירות רכוש

.רות המוקדמיםמבצעים עבירות לאורך תקופה קצרה בגיל ההתבגרות הפוסקת לרוב בשלבי הבג

, )Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990( התיאוריה הכללית של הפשיעהתיאוריה נוספת היא

שהנה ) Low self-control (הגורסת כי התנהגות עבריינית היא תוצאה של שליטה עצמית נמוכה

חסרת רגישות ובעלת חוסר ראיה , מאפיין אישיותי הבאה לידי ביטוי בהתנהגות אימפולסיבית

ההתנהגות הפלילית של בעלי שליטה עצמית נמוכה תחל . דפוס פשיעה לא צפוילמרחוק היוצרת

שליטה עצמית נמוכה מגדילה את הסיכויים . תהיה אינטנסיבית ותחדל בגיל מאוחר, בגיל צעיר

כבעלי פוטנציאל לרווח מהיר ולכן יגדילו על ידי בעלי שליטה עצמית נמוכה שיותר מצבים יתפסו

מאפיינים אישיותיים מוציאים את , יחד עם זאת. נהגות פליליתאת הסיכויים לביצוע הת

רק אם חלון ההזדמנות . ההתנהגות העבריינית מהכוח אל הפועל בהינתן חלון הזדמנות מסוים

Guerette et( ומבנהו חוזר על עצמו על פני רצף של זמן ומרחב ניתן יהיה לחזות את דפוס הפשיעה

al., 2005( .חסידי תיאורית השליטה , תומכים, מכיוון שניבוי כזה הוא לרוב בלתי אפשרי

בגישה הוורסטילית המשקפת בצורה נאמנה יותר לדעתם את הקריירה הפלילית, העצמית

)Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990(.

חרת המציעה הסבר לדפוס הפשיעה שעשוי להיווצר היא יישום מסגרת תיאורטית א

,Le Blanc & Loeber( להתנהגות פלילית )Werner, 1948( עקרונות התיאוריה האורתוגנטית

בשלב הראשון . התיאוריה האורתוגנטית גורסת כי התנהגות מתפתחת בשלושה שלבים. )1998

בשלב השני חלה הבחנה בין פרטים שונים המרכיבים את . ההתנהגות היא כללית ולא מובחנת

בשלב השלישי חלה אינטגרציה היררכית בין מכלול הפרטים . מכלול ההתנהגות הכללית

לתפיסה , עקרונות אלה להתנהגות הפלילית מוביל למשליישום. המובחנים לכדי התנהגות אחת

חל מעבר , כלומר, כי התנהגות פלילית הופכת להיות מובחנת יותר עם העלייה בגיל העבריין

להתנהגות פלילית ) דפוס פשיעה וורסטילי(מהתנהגות פלילית בה מבוצעות מגוון עבירות פליליות

.)Le Blanc & Loeber, 1998( )פשיעה התמחותידפוס (מובחנת בה מבוצעות עבירות ספציפיות

ו 

העלו כי ניתן לסווג )Yonai et al., 2013b( מאמר הראשוןשהתקבלו בניתוח התוצאות

הקבוצה . וורסטיליים שונים או עבריינים לשתי קבוצות חבויות בעלות דפוסי פשיעה התמחותיים

ואילו , מכלל העבריינים14% –הראשונה שנמצאה הייתה הקבוצה הוורסטילית שמנתה כ

. מכלל העבריינים86% –הקבוצה השנייה שנמצאה הייתה קבוצת ההתמחות בפשיעה שמנתה כ

עבריינות חוזרת וכי עבריינים השייכים לקבוצה נמצא כי קבוצות אלה יכולות לנבא ,בנוסף

מאשר העבריינים השייכים ) רצידיביזם(הוורסטילית נמצאו בסיכון גבוה יותר לעבריינות חוזרת

אפקט זה לא השתנה גם לאחר הוספת גורמי סיכון נוספים לניבוי . לקבוצת ההתמחות בפשיעה

תוצאות הניתוח מדגישות את מערכת היחסים הבלתי תלויה הקיימת בין תדירות . רצידיביזם

ביצוע עבירות לבין אופי העבירות המבוצעות המגדירות את מידת ההתמחות או הוורסטיליות

,Nagin( בהנחה ששיטת ניתוח מסלולי התפתחות חבויים. הקיימת בדפוס הפשיעה של עבריין

הרי שניתן , פשיעה לאורך זמןבלת בספרות הקרימינולוגית לניתוח נתוני מהווה שיטה מקו )2005

,Moffitt( יהיה לומר כי ממצאי המאמר הראשון עולים בקנה אחד עם התיאוריה הדיכוטומית

1993(.

הראו כי מבחינה אמפירית )Yonai et al., 2013a( מאמר השנישהתקבלו בתוצאות ה

נטייה זו תואמת בחלקה את . קיימת נטייה לעלייה בהתמחות בפשיעה עם העלייה בגיל העבריין

וכן את יישום עקרונות )Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990( גישתה של התיאוריה הכללית לפשיעה

לפי גישתה של . )Le Blanc & Loeber, 1998( ה האורתוגנטית להתנהגות פליליתהתיאורי

העצמית לבין מידת הוורסטיליות קיים קשר בין מידת השליטה של הפשיעההתיאוריה הכללית

ירידה במידת השליטה . )Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990( שתבוא לידי ביטוי בהתנהגות פלילית

עלייה בגיל מובילה לשינויים . העצמית תוביל לעליה במידת הוורסטיליות בהתנהגות הפלילית

יחולו שינויים גם במידת גורסת תיאוריה זו כי במידת השליטה העצמית מסיבות רבות ולכן

יישום עקרונות התיאוריה האורתוגנטית להתנהגות פלילית . הוורסטילית בהתנהגות הפלילית

, מוביל להסבר שבתחילת הקריירה הפלילית מתנסה העבריין במגוון של התנהגויות פליליות

ומתפתחת נטייה לבצע מגוון מצומצם יותר של ירידה ברפרטואר העבירות הכאשר בהדרגה חל

.)Piquero et al., 1999( בריינים כרוניים בעיקר אצל עעבירות

הממד הכמותי של התמחות) א(השימוש בשרשראות מרקוב במאמר השלישי הראה כי

מצב , המצב הוורסטילי(אמצעות שלושה מצבים חבויים וורסטיליות בפשיעה ניתן לייצוג באו

ז 

המעבר בין המצבים עבור חלק מן העבריינים לא היה ) ב (;)התמחות בפשיעההביניים ומצב ה

קיימת נטייה כללית של מעבר למצב הוורסטילי מגיל ההתבגרות לגילאי ) ג (;פתאומי אלא מדורג

ממצאים אלה תואמים את גישת יישום עקרונות התיאוריה האורתוגנטית . הבגרות המוקדמים

וכן את מאפייני התיאוריה הכללית של הפשיעה )Le Blanc & Loeber, 1998(להתנהגות פלילית

)Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990(.

העלו כי ניתן לחלק את בני )Yonai et al., In Press( מאמר הרביעיניתוח בממצאי ה

עוד נמצא . הנוער העבריינים לחמש קבוצות חבויות בעלות מאפייני תדירות ביצוע עבירות דומים

גדילה את סיכויי העבריין לפתח כי הימצאותם של קרובי משפחה מדרגה ראשונה במאסר ה

וורסטילי העלה כי עבריינים או הניתוח דפוס הפשיעה ההתמחותי. קריירה פלילית כרונית

שהשתייכו לקבוצות שתדירות ביצוע עבירותיהם היה גבוה ואף כרוני היו וורסטיליים יותר מאשר

ממצאים . ה נמוכהעבריינים שהשתייכו לקבוצת העבריינים שתדירות ביצוע עבירותיהם היית

המתיישבים עם ממצאי מחקרים קודמים שבחנו את הימצאותם של קבוצות חבויות של ,אלה

את הוויכוח מדגישים , )D'Unger et al., 1998, למשל( עבריינים על בסיס תדירות עבירותיהם

, כדוגמת התיאוריה הדיכוטומית( הניטש בתחום הקרימינולוגיה בין תיאוריות טיפולוגיות

Moffitt, 1993( לבין תיאוריות בעלות סיבתיות יחידה) Mono-Causal Theories () כדוגמת

הראשונים מדגישים את . )Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990 ,ת של הפשיעההתיאוריה הכללי

. ן של קבוצות עבריינים בעלי מאפיינים ייחודיים ואילו האחרונים שוללים את קיומןהימצאות

פיוס בין שתי גישות אלה תלוי במידה רבה ביכולתן של תיאוריות בעלות סיבתיות יחידה לקבל

כשיטה ) Group-Based Trajectory Analysis(את שיטת ניתוח מסלולי התפתחות חבויים

חסידי שיטת ניתוח מסלולי . בעלי מאפיינים הומוגנייםמקובלת לאיתור קבוצות עבריינים

ורסים כי שיטה זו משקפת למעשה תנודות במידת השליטה העצמית בקרב התפתחות חבויים ג

יימת בכלל בני האדם ברמות שליטה עצמית היא תכונה הק. )Nagin & Land, 1993( עבריינים

מידת השליטה העצמית בקרב עבריינים נמוכה יותר . )Hirschi & Gottfredson, 1993( שונות

גם בקרב ,יחד עם זאת. מאשר בקרב שאר האוכלוסייה ולכן הם מעורבים בביצוע עבירות

בה מתפתחת הקריירה באופןת וות של שליטה עצמית נמוכה המשתקפעבריינים יש רמות שונ

בות פלילית שונה למעור, רמות שונות של שליטה עצמית נמוכה יובילו אם כן. הפלילית שלהם

. לבחון אותםהת ניתוח כגון ניתוח מסלולי התפתחות חבויים יכולששיט

ח 

בהיבט של עקביות התיזה הנוכחית תורמת לפרדיגמה של הקריירה הפלילית, לסיכום

התיזה הנוכחית מדגישה את חשיבות דפוס , תחילה. והמשכיות של הפשיעה במספר היבטים

וורסטילי הנוצר בתחילת הקריירה הפלילית לניבוי רצידיביזם בשלבים או ההפשיעה ההתמחותי

התיזה הנוכחית מעלה כי קיימת תנודתיות בדפוס, שנית. מאוחרים יותר של הקריירה הפלילית

תנודתיות זו באה לידי ביטוי בעלייה . גיל העברייןעם העלייה בוורסטילי או ההפשיעה ההתמחותי

ממצא זה אושש בניתוח נוסף שהראה כי קיים קשר . בהתמחות בפשיעה עם העלייה בגיל העבריין

וורסטיליות בפשיעה או השלילי אך מובהק מבחינה סטטיסטית בין גיל העבריין ומידת ההתמחות

). כלומר ישנה עליה בהתמחות בפשיעה–יה בגיל מובילה לירידה ברמת הוורסטיליות בפשיעה על(

מעלה כי ניתן לאפיין את הממד הכמותי , באמצעות שיטת ניתוח חדשה, התיזה הנוכחית, בנוסף

המצב הראשון . וורסטילי באמצעות שלושה מצבים חבויים או ההתמחותיהפשיעה השל דפוס

בין התמחות לבין וורסטיליות (המצב השני הוא מצב הביניים , הוא מצב ההתמחות בפשיעה

זו חשפה כי המעבר ת ניתוחשיט. ואילו המצב השלישי הוא מצב הוורסטיליות בפשיעה) בפשיעה

הדרגתי וכי על אף שבאופן כללי ישנה נטייה באופן פתאומי אלא מתרחש באופןבין המצבים אינו

כללית לעבור למצב הוורסטילי קיים מצב בו עבריינים עוברים ממצב וורסטילי למצב התמחותי

ביצוע העבירות לבין מידת ההתמחות או הקשר הקיים בין תדירות , לבסוף. עם העלייה בגיל

ולי התפתחות חבויים כדי לחשוף קבוצות וורסטיליות בפשיעה והשימוש בשיטת ניתוח מסלה

הומוגניות בעלות דפוסי פשיעה דומים המבוססים על תדירות ביצוע עבירותיהם באה לידי ביטוי

קבוצות אלה נבדלו זו מזו במאפיינים רבים לרבות . באיתור חמש קבוצות של בני נוער עבריינים

וורסטיליות שהופגנה על או ההימצאות קרובי משפחה מדרגה ראשונה במאסר ורמת ההתמחות

.ידם לאורך הקריירה הפלילית שלהם

ט 

תוכן עניינים

1 .................................................................................................................... - מבוא1פרק

1 ........................................................................................................... התייחסות כללית

1 ..................................................................................... הפרדיגמה של הקריירה הפלילית

3 ....................................................................................................................... תיאוריות

3 ................................................................................................ התיאוריה הטיפולוגית

3 .................................................................................... התיאוריה הכללית של הפשיעה

4 ............................................ יישום עקרונות התיאוריה האורתוגנטית להתנהגות פלילית

4 ......................................................................................................... מחקרים אמפיריים

5 .................................................................................................................... מחקר א'

5 .................................................................................................................... מחקר ב'

6 ..................................................................................................................... מחקר ג'

6 .................................................................................................................... מחקר ד'

7 ........................................................................................................................... סיכום

-A National Population Based Examination of the Association between Age – 2פרק Versatility Trajectories and Recidivism Rates .............................................................. 8

Elaboration on Specialization in Crime: Disaggregating Age Cohort Effects 20 – 3פרק

Versatility and Specialization Transitions from Early Adolescence to Early – 4פרק Adulthood: Hidden Markov Modeling of a National Population-Based Juvenile

Offender Datase........................................................................................................... 44

Trajectories of Crime and Familial Characteristics: A Longitudinal National – 5פרק Population-Based Stud

t

y ............................................................................................... 80

107 .................................................................................................................. - דיון6פרק

108 ........................................................................ אינטגרציה תיאורטית ותרומה מחקרית

111 ....................................................................... תרומה לפרדיגמה של הקריירה הפלילית

111 .......................................................................................................... מגבלות המחקר

112 ....................................................................................................... מחקרים עתידיים

113 ................................................................................................... משמעויות יישומיות

113 ......................................................................................................... סיכום ומסקנות

115 .................................................................................................................. ביבליוגרפיה

הבדלים בדפוס הפשיעה בהיבטי התמחות לעומת וורסטיליות בפשיעה בקרב הקבוצות –נספח א' 119 ........................................................ החבויות שאותרו על בסיס תדירות ביצוע עבירותיהם

120 ................................................................................................... אסטרטגיה אנליטית

120 ..................................................................................................................... תוצאות

 

הרווחה למדעי הפקולטה מן לוין. צ סטיבן' פרופ של בהדרכתם נעשתה זו עבודה

המחלקה מן גליקסון יוסי' פרופ ושל חיפה אוניברסיטת של בריאותוה

 אילן- בר אוניברסיטת של לקרימינולוגיה

 

הבגרות גילאי ועד ההתבגרות מגיל הפלילית הקריירה של והמשכיות עקביות

המוקדמים

"לפילוסופיה דוקטור "התואר קבלת לשם חיבור

:מאת

יונאי שחר

לקרימינולוגיה המחלקה

אילן-בר אוניברסיטת של לסנט הוגש

ד"תשע', א אדר גן רמת