47
bLoAqcq qJ fIJj CLCcp !UCJnq1U © IJO1CC AU 10 IVC Omcc pou cuoija o icxi uoj o xccq wo bbp urnA pc dnoq iqJoni cxbj1c bcuiiiaou © p? 2OU 0 CnWI1JP KCMU V. IIU vuq ic QJCIJIJ nppLq VII LJU2 LC2CLACq ob!u!ou cxbLccq 9LQ IJOQ O qic 1UJJOL2 uq UOI 1JJ02G O pC 4flOU9J Bf1Lfl O ECOUOUJ!C bn4 o Eff32 LC2CJJ bLothw2 !' COthOLC JJUUCC mq WPJ!C ECOUOUJ!C VuA uo ucccwjA i.cbi.ccu ipoc oj pc omq o QoALuo o qJ CqCLJ jçc2cuc 2A21cur LP!2 CLAC B"I O 4CM A0LF JJJC AIC CXbLCCq u P! bbcL c qioc o rpc riipoi2 uq qo 4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij 0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J '1 OJTU oniiqou L1J 10 1V CIJtL 1OL r'" iiq ECOUOUJ!C 2U1q!Q2 1 COIflIJJPW cjcuoiijq 2nbbol4 1LOW qic CGUQL 1OL pUGU OUJ Bn!UC qflC 01? W CP" JIJPUU pcjbjc1i COUJUJCIU2 uq fl C0U2 Uq UJ COILW 1OL LLCJJ IIJCC CJUmJ C1f1jj? iwbjcou 0 }UUCIJ COU L1JUI2 uq IIJC jLIJ-VIJUI1C bflpI!C EC0U0UJ!C UJ!UffL 1OL IJJQ 2CUJ!UL OU IU1.11!0UJ bC12bCIAC2 OU iJIC JCL0CC0UOUJTC uq 4CLOCC0IJOUJC W.O1? 21G1C WCJJJ WLG UOUAWOn L1LC Uq 1Mfl4!C!bIU i l1J I#1BEK 2nuJwi peunc h W'JJC VI1J E4C B14CI2W1? ffOCL QOLqOI? AJCIJ©I H0 11P yCyjG- Vr1n 12 c"'p'q NV on 1020 CIJJT2CU2 AGUfIC MVflMVF BflIVfl oE ECOMONIC 1E2EVKCH J0LJC1IJ o K OWUU HflPPL KCAW V HU 1ou e CflUJUJIU2 V CIO22-COflLIA IVX KEIOIW2 VI'ID IMAE2INEIAI: MBEI ROIKIMO bVbEI EB'IE2

c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    1

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

bLoAqcq qJ fIJj CLCcp !UCJnq1U © IJO1CC AU 10 IVC Omccpou cuoija o icxi uoj o xccq wo bbp urnA pc dnoq iqJoni cxbj1c bcuiiiaou© p? 2OU 0 CnWI1JP KCMU V. IIU vuq ic QJCIJIJ nppLq VII LJU2 LC2CLACq

ob!u!ou cxbLccq 9LQ IJOQ O qic 1UJJOL2 uq UOI 1JJ02G O pC 4flOU9J Bf1Lfl O ECOUOUJ!Cbn4 o Eff32 LC2CJJ bLothw2 !' COthOLC JJUUCC mq WPJ!C ECOUOUJ!C VuA

uo ucccwjA i.cbi.ccu ipoc oj pc omq o QoALuo o qJ CqCLJ jçc2cuc 2A21cur LP!2CLAC B"I O 4CM A0LF JJJC AIC CXbLCCq u P! bbcL c qioc o rpc riipoi2 uq qo4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9Jflu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij 0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCULuq 1OP1J '1 OJTU oniiqou L1J 10 1V CIJtL 1OL r'" iiq ECOUOUJ!C 2U1q!Q2 1 COIflIJJPWcjcuoiijq 2nbbol4 1LOW qic CGUQL 1OL pUGUOUJBn!UC qflC 01? W CP" JIJPUUpcjbjc1i COUJUJCIU2 uq fl C0U2 Uq UJ COILW 1OL LLCJJ IIJCC CJUmJ C1f1jj?

iwbjcou 0 }UUCIJ COU L1JUI2 uq IIJC jLIJ-VIJUI1C bflpI!C EC0U0UJ!C UJ!UffL 1OL

IJJQ 2CUJ!UL OU IU1.11!0UJ bC12bCIAC2 OU iJIC JCL0CC0UOUJTC uq 4CLOCC0IJOUJCW.O1? 21G1C WCJJJ WLG UOUAWOn L1LC Uq 1Mfl4!C!bIU i l1J I#1BEK 2nuJwi peunch W'JJC VI1J E4C B14CI2W1? ffOCL QOLqOI? AJCIJ©I H0 11P yCyjG-

Vr1n 12c"'p'q NV on

1020 CIJJT2CU2 AGUfICMVflMVF BflIVfl oE ECOMONIC 1E2EVKCH

J0LJC1IJ o

K OWUU HflPPLKCAW V HU

1ou e CflUJUJIU2

V CIO22-COflLI�AIVX KEIOI�W2 VI'ID IMAE2INEIAI:

MBEI ROI�KIMO bVbEI EB'IE2

Page 2: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

uq IAJ3E!M" AOLJC JAJ JOOXQO fl'4 H!ICOJIIWP! flU!ACL2U?QLqnU1G 2CP001 O B11!UC22ic oiuu llppq

MCI AOLI' JAJ J0003AjCItCL 21C JjJTUOU DC O!

14 AOLJC flU!ACI2 20b 80DCbI.W7CIU O COIJOWC CqCWJ CLACOU Q C""!' KCAW V HCU

LGbOIJ2 O j CJJUC UJ J O fIG J'f COI1UUJG

oj, ipcur P1 o qou c juq ciqcucc 04 2Wf2fcJJ? uq cououiicijj? ui,jcwi !uGWJGIU

Lcbou!p!coi. ipa juqu uq cwbjo? cwou bLoccqrac ip jqccb pc woi iwboi.wiu

Lc2bouq 0 CJJIJC ju fIG UI9L!UJ C021 0j !IThG2PJJGU JQ K4CIIf4A 0UJC 04 fIG 4CiOI2

WX LG40U112 !U 14 OECD C0flUP.G2 bLCA!0fl2 2WC2 JIAG 0GU prniq fI !IJAG2PJIGUI qoc2 1101

Mc nc jjI.w-jcic biiucj qw to cxbjoLc fIG GXIGUI to thjncp 4jxcq luAcatweut Lcabouq2 to

vnaivciV CK022-COnKUcA CO'ThVI�I2OMLVX IEEOII2 V fl.1AE2fl#IE]kL:

yrinatJ#1IJ OLjcIU bL *23

Page 3: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

T

4JJG qr2cn22roxJa siiq LGATGM2 O 24nqr68 'q wqAq (j) uq H(1ppLq (oo)ci" U€OGJ92JCJ woq€j Hi jAOL ot bbLocpG2 p€q Oil JLLGA6L21PLC TIIAG2WCIJç 266o puqou ;pG 21uub4iou2 o L6AGL2fJ6 IUAG2çWGU; uq cOUAGX qifT2U16IJ C02ç2 u126 LII

jji oiçu booL 6uibILIc1 bGLIoLwnc€ O II6OCjII21CJ WOG2 201116 LG2GIILCSL2

CLGG GACU42 MJçJJ J9'LG iq qJ2cGLUJpJG GGC OIl LGflLIJ JUAG2çUJGIJç

f1U9iUGUJ2 GC4JU 4JJG UG LG11LU 40 iUAG2!U 3IIJCG LGbLG2€u q2-IJTuTL9'j GXbGL1IIJGU42 J0L IBG92fILIIJ IIJG LG2bOU2IAGIJG22 O JIJAG2I11JGIJV

GLm!uu2 O JUAG24IJJGU4 qGc2Jou2 bçicnj& MG LuIG J X LGOLIJJ2imbLoAc ITbOIJ GxiaçJu bbLocp p? 1T2JU X LGOLW2 4O pGGL qGucJ qG-!11AG24mGIJ4 uT2iU 9IJ GXGIJ2iOU O JJG x-9qn24cq woqGJ p1 20 qoiu

jJJa b9'bGL i Gtubç o WG11LG JJG GT[GC2 O L60LIJJ2 OH pn2!HG22p9'AG JiççjG G1IGCI nboii LW JUAG2çIJJGUçGxJ2pu GAJqGucG 9'bbG9'L2 JGU oiA9Lq iIJGLbLGçiOu

jç o GuJbiLic9'j IUAG2uJGU4 I1JOGJ2 2U!C7JJ%T JJJJG MGjJ4 O JJG¶uq WG'211LG2 o onbsiç coLboL9;G c92p joii oL bLoçpJpcA GuGL9'JJ?. iiu-J0 BGLUUJG OJJIJ uq J{G122 }fnqGpIl2cp 911q 1CJJGJTIJAG2HJGIJ 92 MGJJ 92 2JIJJBJG q JJOC CCGJGL90L moq€j (2G& 6 T0JG2I JuqGGq 4JJG II2GL C0241 0 CbJ49'J uq \ bbLocpGe fl21WJJ?k 9'ij o GxbJiu0 CJJIJG2 LU 'J4 Ot b9'L91IJGGL2 OH !UAG2cI1JGUc qnjcnj

WGIJ CO22 9'LG imbJ'n2JpJ?. JLGè LGuqGLiu UA !UtGLGUCG pon IJJG G1GC2GuGL9JJ? p/€ pççj GxbJ'uoA boMGL 0L IUAG24UJGU 24IIIJT4Gq 9'qIT2-20U J) OL 4X UJOGJ2 (2GG 6t J,OJMU H9?92FI 1IWUJGL2 jgj)(2GG '10LGU20IJ JQ 'uq 'bbJJc9T!ou x boJ!c? HJJ 'uq '1oLGIJ-

4GOCJ922IC91 IJJ0GJ2 0 JUAG21IJJGU4 LGJ2JIJOil 4JJG I12GL C02 O cbçj iuoqGjJJG LGAJGM Ill CP1UJ0

ipGJuJJuJ? 2ITbboLpAG o 2iuicu4 9GC42 o x bojic2. ou !HAG24UJGIJc (2GGJf UJ02 LGCGUj 2GC OECD jj)) Gmb!LcJ GAqGUCG p92 iioç GGU OAGL-comb9LGq 9CL022 COJILJçLJG2 (JoL 4G L2 2I1C 21Tq? 2GG K!U iq FPJIGL011x bTL9mGGL2 OIl 1JL11J2 H2GL CO242 o c9bIJ JJ9'AG 6GU bLGbs'LGq 911q 4?JJGLT2011 J5 JG22GLG J31T MJJ!Jc GXGII2AG 2IJqG2 O JJG G[GC2 O A9LJOJI29X LGtOLIIJ2 MGLG HJ4LOfTCG LU W9IJ?. qGAGobGq COI1ULJG2 (2GG G OLGU-

11J9J.GL2 GIJJ2GJAG2 }J9AG JJGGG 4JJJ2 11J6229€G D11L!U 4JJG T0O2 211JJC9UçC9'IJ JJ9AG J9LG G[GC2 OH LW2 JAG24LUGU qGc2oU2 2OIJJG JGAGJ bopc?—

ECOUOW!22 9AG JOIJ 9L1IG 2IU1JC9U LGOLUJ2 O COWb9JJ?i 9X91JOU

T juoqncou

Page 4: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

tOL OIJL LG211]2 'uq 2GCcI0IJ! colJcp1q62jJo o jç uçii bbLocpG2 2GCPOU GxbJoLG2 j LuçJi GxbJ9'nçiou2JJG LG2flJ2 MG opnu n2JU qn2 bioccqnL uq couJbLG2 cJJG LG211J2 MJJ

GCJOU f qG2cLipG2 olu bLocGqnLG- 2Gcc!oU LGbol42

G2JUJ9G 2GCcIOU 3 LGbOLç G24!WffIJOU LG2JTIl2 112!IJ 2uqg'Lq G2c!w9iJo1JIPG bbGL J2 OLIJJGq 9 0}J0M GCciOu qG2CLpG2 JJG LJJoTJGJ MG

0JJ0M1U X LGOLUJ2 JU OLJGL OAGLCOIJJG JJG2G imçJou bLopJGm2oiicpuq pjom LcJ? nbou cLo-€cpou9 i'u'iou iu IMIL9'UJGGL2 1Ju24LcrnJGuç9j JupJ ccpuidri iuA pi jow boMGu flJU bbLoccpLIJJ2 GxbGccGq X LG9IJJGIJ J2 III JAGU ?G9L V2 LG2HJ G22 fl2iUcoLboLçG bLUJGGL2 LG cpuq OGIJ 12 qiijjcnjç o )nq pç}JGIIJ MJJGIJ LG91G JUAG2çUJGUç J2 bGLcGJAGq G pip Gcouq 2rncGJUCGUçJAG2 MJJGU LG14G JUAG2UJGIJ i bciiq G jOM 9IJq LGUJOAGJUCGIJçIAG2 J2 CJGLJA IJOç GXOGUOIT2 C0AGLUWGJJ2 cuq O JU2 IçrJçG JUAG2UJGIJç

9çGuJbça i2O19G G1JGCc2 E1L2 c}JG A9'LWf 1013 113 iUAGfUJ6IJ

112 O OAGLCOIIJG 2GAGL9J 11JJbOL1J bLopjGiu2 JJ9'AG p1ubGLGq bLGAJ0112

UJJ-JGAGJ bruGJ juGsq o 9'LG9'G q9' GC912G cJJG? JJOMJç1 COIIIJçLIG2 O 2çITq? J1JAG2lIJJGU qGc2Jou2 O OAGL 3OOO 1JLm2 MG LGJ? ou

io b11L211G JJ2 MG GWbJO Licp JLW-JGAGJ buG1 013 9'X LGOLW2 ID

OL JJG 2UJbJG O IJLIJJ2 MG açnqAIJO LG2b0IJq O X CJJ9IJG2 ¶JGC4JU UGç LGI1LIJ JIJAG2çiIJ J2 J1JC0LLGC

CODUçLIG2 MG açITq? 11J12 G2 JJ9 JJG 2cAJiGq 'C4 IJJ ILJAG2çUJGLJ4 OG2icj 2JUi4JCIJç uq bJn2ipJG uq 9LG LG11AG1? 2imfl'L CL022 WO2 0 flJGIPG G2ç1m9Gq GGC2 O 11U91JJGUJ2 O jJG IJGOCI221C9I IuoqGJ 9'LG GCOIJOIIJ-2JUJJJ9I b9'ççGLU2 uT OITL GXbJOLç1OU O 9X LGOLW2 O1142JqG flLJiçGq 3çG2p21C 2L11C11LJ UJOGJ OAGL ¶ 3e-?GL bGLJoq \[2 qi2Cn22Gq GJOM MGLIIJGGL2 9LG GCOUOIIJ1CJJ 2111h1J91 TCLO22 q1GLGIJ 2bGc!JcçiOu2 o

JUAG2LLJGU CpIJGq 2JLT1IJCUçJA qqJpoIJ OJ1L G2çimG2 OJ 2LITC11LJ b-OJJOMTU G1C IJJ9]OL X LGtOLIIJ 2JIJCG JQ5 CL022-2GCçIOIJ bçGLu O

uq I12GL CO24 O C9'biJ 2bGcicçJou2 LOL cJJG flUG 39G MG jonuqID GLJIGL 2çfrqiG2 uq jiubj b19'n2ipJG qhT2cUJGUc co2ç2 iii pocppc bbGL MGLG UJOLG GC0IJOUJJCJJA 21U1CIJ4 JJO2G GUGLYJJ? op19'uuGq

GGC2 O JJUqmGUçJ A9iWJG2 113 UGOCJ9'221C'J UJOGJ2 013 1IJAG2IJJG1Jç lIT

1JJOGJ2 O p112113622 xq 11JAG2IJJGIJI OL UçGq 9G2 LUJ2 JJJJGIJJ!2 ¶thbLOCjJ prnjq OU JJ ID OITL (j) bbGL ID M}JJCIJ MG 91JJ?G

Page 5: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

if19ff19V1II brlB p beuLbA-xsT nini&Jdo lo sw bisbrisia iuol er1i aieoo Jr13mJ214bs xevno nimuaA

r1iw aiiid ibsI .IIDSoIqqs Is3iasIDo9n eiI ni I3bom in3mtavni LsDixiqm9 bL arIoiibnoD i9b1o-i1fI 31{T .31J16V fI3B9I 3fl i fiiimixsm mtil rii

-Javni lo clJsq Ismiqo boiiq-oi-boii3q rzidiizaeb rIoiisup3 i1uI ns ot esfi rbidw noiisup9 33fx31iuib 3111 3vIoa (8@t) bisrbrislH bns ledA .insm .D1Jbo1q unsvi 1sniism 91uth bns in3nno b3eqx3 ii o n3miavni biddiiH e) b9tsmii9 3d 'sm IIei no11sups 191u ei11 viJsniIA

-ni (C8@1) rbsdisijA iii A .(1@1 iideM bns brioH OJ qirfafiM bn igu di lo uisv eiith bn In9rnn lo amiss iii b9e3iqx3 3d nsc 3n3m9v . sivs lo amI9t ru

bes1qx3 rzoiibnoD mo l3brw bns jsiqso lo OD iaen r{i r11iw (QI) nidoT 'd bssuB iaift asw dDsolqqs isnfl iriT -vni lo I3bom sdt tsfi 3W .(8eI) ir1assH d b31!qqua enoitibnoD

3w enoisnp in3m89vni er1t zrni .wof3d b9arrnaib rbsoiqqs 3111 oI Jn3m bsin9s1q noiisvi13b ni3s3q9x mon (1161151 sw isiIims1 191sI 916 9iIiJiJ

6 2sbivolq A xibnsqqA .enoiisups noiismiiae sill no uDo1 brus 319riwsl9 .Isbom bsleujbs-x6i sill lo noiisviisb L6mloI

-sisi sill svneb oriw (f8I) ismmir brus ($8Q1) irlassH ruiwollo'I DilsIbsup lo 3Dfl9B91 sill iii insmiasvni bus nidoT risswl3d qirknoii

:2wolloI as rlDsolqqs bslaislbs-x&l sill 1n989IqSl SW teoD lnsmiu1bs

(1) + i bns 1evii33q8s1 )bol lsliqsD sill bus lnsmlsvnt sis 'A bus 91311W

;inslenoD DfIbsqB-m1iI £ 2i ;isviiDsq8s1 asxsbni smil bns mift 3111 31.6 bus (A xibnsqq.s ui norisvrisb 911 1 358) enidoT lo sijfsv bslaubs-xsi sill i isilT .misi IOTIS 5111 i

(;,'1 l)q —

— (2) (

— I)

-

ol sviislsi aboo lsiiqsD lo snq silt 81 q sisi xsi elsioqioD sill i -' 91911w

3DflSWOll6 fiofiSiDSiqsb mon 2nkv.68 xsi lo SLJISV irxseoiq sill ei rj bns luqiuo libsiD xsi 1n9f11125v111 116 illiw slqmsxs 1O'I .BSVIIIISDIII lIi9lTIiesVflI 151110 bns

rj A SISI is (DTI)

(C) — au-( + + I) + =

Page 6: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

MGJJGL iqGUçJJJ9'pfG GCOUOWG4L1C bLopJGwa MG9IC JU24LHUJGUJ L!9pJG2JOM LG2BOIJ2iAGUG22 O IJJAG2çWGUç 4O 2JTCJJ 92 BVq GxbJoLG

couq naJu qrç M€ uj)G bLGAion2 LG2IIJ2 jJ9 JiubjJcqJuqouJ uq fuJqOGLnwIJ? jj? '9b'u jp GLJU joi.m2 3biu 3MGCll cpG flUJlGqbbGL) MG uT2G LW q' OL VT2IL9J BGIfl1L DGUWLJ.C JLUCG91JLG1JJ jf) ruq cJ fluiçGq icirG o 2nqiG2 iu OJTTL

flJnIJqGjJe DGAGLGflX iiq CpIU4LGJJI J5 GGIJ uq 2cjJJ-9'IJq uopj juq g1uqom (DGAGLGx uq cpwuçLjji ioOITG JJ H02Pr K9'2}J?b 9I3q aCJ3LJ2G1U jj) b'rn (vJou2o-BoLLGoicj (cIGo acp!uLGIJ! uq 9w!JIo 'b (H'v! uq w-0111. JCU0MJGG 1W9'G2 9'LG ouj?. Aijg'pjc joL (2cpJjGL J)M}JGU rnJ!OLm WGJ0 12 1T12G 011 q' LO1JJ UJ1T1C JLGL 2G O1 COI1U4L!G24O JqGufiJA MpGçJJGL JJG 242JGq ¶2 MG bLG2GuGq 1}JGW poi bbj?bbLorcp ,OL JJ JJG COITUçLIG2 ¶TLG 11IJ'A1JpJG jç 12 9TH JUJbOLU 1:L2c 2GbMG bLG2Gu J12 GMG1JCG TIOL MO LG920U2 E1L2I LG2ThJC2 1I2JJJ 9' COUJbS'L9'pJG

IT2itJ 2ç9'IJq9'Lq GCOUOUJGLJc GcJxrnd1TrG2 GmbJoXGq p? w'uX bLGAion2 9'u1JJ0L2'V2 9' p9'2GJJIJC MG G1H p? bLG2GuçJu G2l!m9'cG2 0 JJG 49'x-9'q1rr2sq UJOqGJ

uqq ybbLocpUJJ2UJG9'2ITLGq MG LGITLU cJJ!2 12211G pGJOM'

TL1G2 MJJJ iwbiiçiou 2?2Gm2 pGC9'J12G A9TL9'JG MG JT2G MOJlJq pG IJJOLG

2J1011Jq GXbGC T0 2GG 1G22 LG2bOU2IAGIJG22 O HJAGUJGIJ T0 T9'X bopcA u conij-

cowb9'LGq UJOLG G9'21JA' COHLG iJ 9T2211u1bç10U 12 J1JCOLLGC4T 4TG11 MG

COU2çLJICçIOU O 9'1J 9TJJ0M2 JJG LG2ITJ4T2 9'CLO2 COJTIIJçLJG2 4O G

GLG MG LGJX 011 JJG UGM A1GM rimbpou 1p12 9'22nmbpOu aJmbJJ€2 T}JG9'LG ILLGJGA9'IJç OL 4TG JIJAG24IIJGU4 qGC21OL12 E01. cJJG GXGLCJ2G2 MG cou2iqGL

quq 9TXG2 9'LG c9'bJç9'JJGq JIJço 4TJJG A9TJHG O TJJG rLUJ 9'uq bGLUJ9TIJGIJç GJJ9TLJG2

r!TM AGM (giIJ VIIGLP9'CJJ flL9'qoLq JJ) 12 COLLGCI 4TGIJ q"'-9'CCOHLJ tOL JIJJBIIç9TçJOU (& ? JMOL i) H0MGAGL JJ, cIJG9' 2iLIJbJG GXçGLT2JOIJ O JJG 9TOAG IJJOqGJ 9'qina4T cJJG G2fJIJJ9'cJOu GdI19TTJOU

9'UA 0 JJG COJIIJçLJG2 MG 2sTrq%. bLOAiqG 2OIJJG 2OL O qLAJqGIJq LGJ!G J4 12

1JJG GxbGccGq iuij'çiou L9TG TLg'JOM9TIJCG b€LmiGq u 9'22G O, 9'G qT2cofru4TGq 9' 9' IJOUJJIJ9'J L9'G JJ9'4T UCJ11G2

MGLG L 12 JJG LG9'J L9'4TG O JUGLG2 9'Uq (c1) 12 JJG qGbLGcJ9'ou 9'J-

Page 7: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

-IllDffhb 3iicriono enD nislqxe h&q iii aseI & ns (noiiDiiiae1 nomom io eqeiaebi sn1i eupinrbei s o1qme bns odiiDeb ew nofte ixeni erli iii .eit

.31311 beiriemuob ameldoiq ni&ri erfJ erD bus easdstb s,snV IsdolD eiIi moil wsib ew noiismio erD io'I

-qs ui lisieb ui bedi1Deb uDod eis rbinlw be1dmeaas evsrI ew ae1dsixsv xsi ioiid enD io eneielei eielqmo3 s ebivoiq oT .t—1 eeldsi ui bus H xibneq

-q s1qms nio niiub J3UIJ8n0D oi beau aieems1sq xsJ nsveJsi siLl lo xsi emoni sJsioqroD 1snkism iioucisa siLt iloqel iioid1 I asidsi boii

iioJn5vfli bus noiisiDslqeb bas anoibubsb bus ajibeiD xsJ iuismeevnii aeisi lo noitqi1Dasb siLl oeL& sea) ibula ew aehtnuoD enD lo 11363 iol aelui noisuLsv

.(H xibneqqs ui noLlu1fano3 s!dsiisv -hsv inishoqmi siom siLt lo smoa lo anisibsin bus aassm aebivoiq l' eldsT

nsibeM .sno nmuIOD iii bshoqei eis asuLsv ie*isun mii' .easJsb siLt ui asids £ o hsmnsU ioI (noiflim usem) rioillim I lo wol s moil ensi asijlsv

eis asul.sv easniT .nsqsL iol (noillim 11 asem) noillim 88 lo r1iu{ 2.U ot '3fl511UD 'cthrno3 ernoul ui eulsv fsAism Lssi enD nLl1evno3 beisluD

rbna aA .ise Isafl amifl siLt lo bne enD ts tsi ensrbxe siLt nieu aisliob noiia al si1ob enD Ii srD oa abs1e sisi ensibxe befiei oJ bnei 11 1w erLt

.audiisq aileleD isis1 iseqqs 111w amifi nisio siLl boiisq elqmsa siLt svo .amth sesnsqsl1. lo eiul&v sill niiisurL&vs ui iDnulaib Jaom ai bsIIs airiT

nsem) CV.O lo wol £ moll ens1 aeulsv beianjbs-xsi lo asuIsv usibeM -xsi isiLt oioT4 .risqsL iol usem) O1.1 lo rfiui s oi nebewe iol (8.O

u1DIJe aA .iao3 noiiiaiup3s all aaei IsJiqsD o snlsv wobsula siLt ai beiaujbs e1dsnoase1 1ssqqs aebulirism silT . nsnli isdtsi I

— oi elds1sqmoD ai ii sis eeulsv bsismiiae d3inlw ui nsqsl. lol eaonll o £Iouiqe3xe suit 1111w

eldslisvs sis anoailsqmoD wel isvewoH C.asibuia anoivelq ui eaouli ol evilsiel rnobni}I beiinU edi nsqst insult iedto aeiiinuoo ui alodunurn easiLt aaeaas ot

.aeJsi belinU siLt bus

io' xi jol alin uoii1JJ.6v iotnsvni bus aoiisio3iqb 9th alisib C 9[dsTV e boisq 9Iqms eth 19V0 2311fl 98311i 111

98uI6Lf3 9111 lo floiiquiOe3b i1qffIo3 iom &

.8 xibnsqqs floiJ5IuI5D sIli ui bust lb 9111Ev ishsm 911i 3buIoni on ob b9jau1bs-xsj lb a3uLsv 9dT8

on ob sisb 9sinsV IsdoID silt sausscl bot Lstiqs ilJ lb ioD in8m9sIqs1 r1i lb -xst ttuai £ A .auoitsioqio Lsba&nft-non iol bust lb 9uIsv lood siLt tioq91 \Ists1sq bus idaoH s) sibuia s1dsi.aqmo ui usift isis1 Bi mifi sBsusqsI id

• (0001 qsdas)I

Page 8: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

L9'UG jLOW OO O oo yjj o JJG G2fJIJJ9'f62 9'LG 29'i2çJC9'jJ? 21IJtJC9'IJ 9'jO/A O 00J! OL 19'b9'LJ o ()J OL DGUIU9'L1( AjO2 G2ç1w9'çG2

OJ jJO2G LGbOLçGq Ju biiion 2cnqG2 IPG G2c!UJ9'G2 L9'ilG LOUJ 9'JJJG G2çJUJ9'çG2 O JJG COGCJGJJ OIJ LGbOL4Gq JU JJG UL2 COJIIUJIJ 9'LG

12 IJ/JLIJGL o b9'L9'HJGçGL2 c2pm9'çcq

9'2AWb4oçiC9'fj) cJJ2çLJpnçGq MGLG JS 12 fG U/TUJpGL O JU2çLflUJGUf 2 9'JJ

J9'2 LOM O1 G9'CJJ COflIJL?2 b9'ucJ 111 JJG VJJJLq 9'IJq OHLç}J COJJTLUIJ2 IJJG 4G2 12

cJJG COJnUJU JJJJG G2 O OAGuqGU?Ju LG2çLJCçJOIJ2 12 LGboL4Gq in çJJG

2GCOJJ cojnmu M1JJ JU2LHLuGJJç 2G LGboJ4cq GJOMcojnuJrr 2JUJiJ9'LJ? jJG 1O11LP LOlA bLoAiqG2 Ijijj G2ç!m9'G2 oi

içp 1IJ2LfIWGU 2G (JGAGJ2 O J9'2 o x\v nq \y) LGB0LcGq CjOMLiJGjJO O 11JOWGtJ2 (CJf'JJ/{) G2JUJ9'IG2 O 4JJG 2bGCJC9'iO1J JU 4JJG jL2 COJITUJUjJG 2bGCJIC9'ciOil 117 JJG jjL2c coJnuJU JJJJG LO/A bLonqG2 cp G1JGL9'JiGq

}JG c9'biç9'j 2OCJ y (r cT\1 _ç;_3\1j;i) 9'2 9' LGLG22OLJJG 2GCOJJ LOlA 9'2 L2-cJJ1JGLGUCG 0 OUCG-j9'Gq C9'2}J IJOM LGJ9'pAG

LUOGJ LGIJJOAG Lw-2bGcJc jxcq GGC2 9'Uq crqqJu XG9'L qnwuf A9'Li9'pJG22dfl9'LG2 (0F2) 12 fl2G G2çJLu9'G GdII9'pOU (J) gjçGL jL2f-qrjGLGuCrnb9'uGJ cj9'ç9' OL JJG Jf COllULJG2 JU OJIL 29VJbJG JIJ 4}JG L24 LOM OLqJIJ9'L? JG9'24

I9'PjG 2 bLoAiqG2 IOIfl qJIGLGU 2G2 O G241Lu9'4G2 O JJG P9'2!C 1JJOGJ JTT2JIJ

qJAJqGuq2.9' WITC}J J9'LGL bLoboLJOu o (oju 2IJJ9'jjGL 9'uq ?OriUGL) LLu2 b noqGcGbpAG 1JOMGAGL 2JUCG flJG 29'LiJbjG O TLW2 IOL JJG fluiçGq 9'G2 COIJç9'TIJ2JJG1L G9'LUiil2 JJO2G 111 JJG fluJ4Gq 9'4G2 JJJi2 IJJU 12 2OIIJGMp9'çCOJJTIIIJU EJLHJ2 !11 IJJO2 9'Jj COHIJçLJG2 9'bbG9'L O b OfI 9' J9'LGL 2jJ9'LC OO qJAJqGUq2 o pGJnuiu-O-bcLioq obGL9'rn IIJCOIIJG 12 LGbOLGq ill 4JJG J9'2

fluifGq giUqOIJJ uq flInçGq 2c9'G2 IPG L9'cJO12 LGbOLçGq 117 JJG GJpJJ COJUUJIF JJJJG L9'1O 12 pJJJG2ç ! DGHW9'LJ LL9'IJCG

2OCJC JjJG L9'4Jo 01 LG9'ruGq G9'LUiU2 pGiurnu-o-bGLioq cbjçj a4oCcCOUJJçLJG2 4JJ9'U 4JJG L9110 01 ObGL9'iU C0mG pGiUUJn-OI-bGLJog cbiçjL9'02 O C9'2}J ITO/A JJG pGuuJu-oI-bGLioq c9'biç9'j 2OCJ( 9'LG J9'LGL ill L1JO2IJAG A9'Li9'pJG2 017 LW Cp9'L9'C4GL12pC2 uq bGLI0LW9'ncG IJJG IIJGqJ9'U 9'uq UJG9'IJ

Il jJG cjJLOriJJ U1UIJ COJITUJU2 O cj MG LGbOLç JUjOLUJSJOIJ OU

L9G2 9'LG LGbOLcGq 111 4JJG tcp COJIILUITJ9'ççGL O 9'pouc 12 5 BGLCGU4 01 cbiçj 2OCj JpG qGbLGcJ9'iou

L9'UG O BGL ?G9'L JLJAG2IJJG1Jç O 9'Ofl O bGLcGu O JJG C9'bi9'j 2OCJdJJJGqJ9'U 9'Uq IUG9'JJ 9'LG LGBOLçGq JU JJG 4JJJLq cojllIJJJJ IPG IOLLUGL 1UqC9'cG

JJ}JG A9'J11G2 01 IJJG L9'IIO 01 JUAG2UJGUç O pGJunin-o-bGLJoq c9'b1I9'J 2OCJC

Page 9: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

Ion ai slsmiie sill lo rioiaiDslq sill isvswoH .Isvsl insDlsq I sill l isel Iqmi I1iI slmrls s8silT .lsbom bisbni sill lo rroiJmifirroc £ bus ('A\I) lo anssm slqms sill nsviD .BIoD lnsmiuLbs sisl lsmsilxs

lnsmlau Lbs esilqmi iI.O lo slsmiis lesisl sill nsvs sidsi in 1ismnsU iol .siulibnsqxs insmiesvni lo hun isq lnsoisq OV luods lo loD

-iii sill ni bsau smilomoa noilsz)fli3sqa 2J0 us elioqsi woi bnoosa silT ssa) snsufi Isirislni lo sDnslloqrni sill snimsxs ol siulsislil lnsmlasv bslidW bus qsilasX bisdduH bus ;88I nsislsl bus bisdduH iiss'i

ni s2orll ol islimia sis no eioris bisbasl bus aslsmils lnioq silT .(A@I sDiwl lissn ei InsiDifisoD sill ibirlw ui lisrnusU iol lqeDxs nmuloD lifI sill rla& bssl-sDuo lo s3nsl&lIib iift sill no aslsmiis IlisioffisoD silT .sisl s

iii .aslsl bsiinTJ sill bas swio'1 ioI Ino ln&)fiiuie llsDxl8iisle sis woft

-B5 oBIs sW .bslsmils lsbsiqini isv sis lnsiDffiso3 sill isr{lo sill s3usl&fiib-lalfi sill niDslqsi umuloD bnoDs sill ni noilsDRi3sq sill belsmil

nI .wofi ilas lo sDnslsllib laifi 11s1oqmsiuoD sill rlliw wofi r{sD bssl lo 2ifll ioI insioffisoD belsmilas sill nebsw lqsDxs 1inuoD ilcss iol sas aiill

.lsvsl lnsDisq sill Is lassi Is lr1s3flinia ills3ilailsla bus sviliaoq sisw rnisi biiull sill uI .awoi ilhuo1 bus buiLt sill ni bsluoqsu sus esismilas MM)

bsluoqsu scoill oi bsusqmot) .bslsmiias ci ) no InsioffisoD sill Ino umuloD bus esiuIrucoD sum uol ususl sus aslsmilas InsbffisoD sill wox laufI sill iii

nsill suom lusiDifisoD sill ci uismusD uol 'luO .asnlnuoc, svfI uo uslisme easi insiDifisoD sill ci usbswe uol lno woi laifi sill ni bslioqsu lsill sDiwl

Ifsiirisiadua sus auoIis busbiisle silT .wou laufi sill ui bshoqsu isili IIsuf usd1 uol eslsmiles lrisbffIsoD silT .wou leufi sill iii bsluoqsu seorli nsill ususl sill lo lasl silT .lusDflinia Ion sis uxsbsw bus ebuslusdlsi4 sill FisrnnsU

.ilnuoD 'ns ioI bslDsjeu Ion ci anoilDiulasu niiilnsbiisvo wofi rlasD sill lo uoilibbs sill uiusbianoD alluasu alioqsi wou u{liuol silT sill ui bsluoqsi seoul ol islimie sis () no aslsmilas lriioq silT .sldsiisv

noiaulDui sill d bslD&fts ion ci lusiDifisoD ciii 1o sDusDf1iIIia silT .woi bull sill ilDirlw ui swuo'frI ui lqsDxs wofl ilas bssl 10 sDnsu&flib laufi sill lo

lud) uluuroD isuflo ns uoI as sisl as sDiwl ci wofi ilasD no slsmiles luioq sill esiuluuoD us uo'I .(wou buoDsa sill ui beluoqsu Isill ol IsDilusbi lussn bus frnobui)I bsliuU sill swio14 usqsI uoI ;sviliaoq ci slsmilcs lnsiDfflsoD silT .lusDfljnje 'llSDilBil8le sis esismilas lusiDifisoD sill asJsI bshinU sill sis elsl bsliuU sill bus rnobniI bsliuU sill risqsI uoI aslsmilas lnioq aA .euoilsDflbsqa islimie uiau asibuic euoivsuq ui bslioqsi scoill ol islimie

V

Page 10: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

1J9! 4G 2JmbJqAJu 9cnubrou 9pOAG

eIhJC0b0L9b0I o JJJOLG coiubj€x GLLOI. 2fLflC11LG2 12 boeeipJG EOL o xbo2iç1ou MGULJJJ2 lO 2}1OCJ2 fO }JGJL iT2GL CO22 C9J12G p? ijJ ]X B'GOLW ycç o.ynGLpcp uq () B°cp o p€aG OCfl2G OIl €2iUJçiU JJG LG2bOJJ2G O flcowbLGq OPGL 2;nqrG2 Ju ui 2brLi iucpJqG cnmtiii uq (T085) uq

9iJ (Jcj) M}IGLG L62JIJ2 CIO22 W9U? qiGLGuc fl X LGOLW2 MGLG2pG cGcpuidnG ojjo M92 J2o neGq o 2;nq?t fl2 buGJ qç C""'!" H

cLqJu 9 IU v (oo)OJJGL 1}191J UJOAGUJGU42 HJ nUquJGUJ2 OUG c112 O conjq p€ bLG2GUcG o U012G

,JJJ12 W1JJc G 4G cU26 q cpG 2OCF UJLJG AJfI€ O JJG iIJJ UHCcIIIfG2 OL

}JG GCOIJOUJG4L1C1313J C1J IJJ02 9'CCflL9'Gj?1 IIJG9'2IILG JJG LGIGA91J GXbGcGqJCIJ0MJG GXOGLJOfl2 AL13Tç!OU IU JU }JG 2JmbJG2f C92& 92211LUG

MG ¶1L11G LOLIIJ2 OGL bGuoqe 113 MJJIcJJ JJGLG 12 2np2ç9iJçi9Jobçimiiou GILOL p? 11332e

AiJ9pJG 9'4 — j 91J 12 ¶1 M}JJcG-IJOI2G GLLOL GLHJ MJJ!CJJ LGUGC2

M}JGLG GxbGcf9Jou2 obGLçoL OL jLW S couqiJouJ 013 1IJOLUJ-

= + (cf)WG1J:

flG1U p? cou2iqGLiu JJG toJJoM1u 2bGcJIJcU'pou o JJG iiJoqGj O JIJAG2ç-0J CJJ9UG2 ill

bLoAiqG UJGJJO JJOM2 112 J2OJG GGL G1JGC42 OH JIJAG2IJJGIJç

combouGu2) 9LG UO 249'2çJCU'JJ?L 01 GC0110m!C9'IP 2!U!1C13c4 BGI0M MGCOGWCJGIJc 013 JGqJLT 4O COUCJTI2JOIJ 2L11CHLU ALipjG2 (uq pGiLiuJCIJc IJJG21ILGUJG1J GLLOL blopj€m2 W piU2 0MIJM9L cJJG G2iuJ9'GqJJ9AG GGIJ G2;JUJ9cGq fl2J1J o' !112;L11mGH9i ALJpJG2 01 eiiLGtOLUJ2 013 LI1J JIJAG2çIIJGUç eGUGL9'IJ? GdflçioIJ (j) OL 2JUJiJL OLIJJnJJOU2JIJ 2GCçiOu MG qG2CLJpG MG 112G G21ffl9G GTJGCç2 O X

yJLu/ ybbLocp: fl2J jx I{61oLm22U1JJbJG) ill ouj? ¶7 2112G 0 C0ITUL1G2GXCG22 2GIJ21çJAJç? C2JJ UOM (ç JG2ç J0L GUGL9iJ? J9LGL JLIIJ2 111 0111C0HIJLJG2 pn imbjA J9LG ¶7qiflafUJGU4 C022 GC0U JUAG2çUJGIIç qJ2bJ2 ¶711W9fG2 OH ¶7LG IT2flJJ? 2ççJ2iC9jJ? 2iIJJllC'Uc uq dnJicU'ciAGJ? 2JHJIJgL 9'CL022

IMO COIJCJII2JOU2 ¶7LG 2flG2G p?i JJG G2pmcG2 JU JL2ç G2J-C0rnjçi?M14JJ 4JJG p92iC UJ0GJ 0AGLJqGIJiJAiIJ LGacL1CIJ01J2 ¶7LG UOf LG1GC4Gq OL ¶7UX

Page 11: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

IJJ9OL 111 MJJICJJ JUqiATqflJ LUJ w€U2 9'LG LGbJcGq pA JuqiAJqnJ couqouJJJJ2 G2çJmOL C911 pc O 2 JJG 9LIJJJ1L qnGLGucc-uJ-omu-mc9'u2 G2çJ-bGcç9çJou2 MG COULOJ OL JuJbOLUc cLo-2GcpoJJJ pGGLOGUGTA ju jyc

BA GXbLG221U A9LJ9pJG JU 4GLW2 O 4JJG!L CA9OU LOUJ couqiiouJ GX-G21WG2 O c 9iiq uq 4JJGU booj CLO22-2GC1OU o1 jJG2G 4O G2I!W91G J•(j. j,o JUJbJGIIJGUV n2 bbiocp MG ff2G L2-2çG LGL22IOU2 O COU2LUC.X pA COU24LHCIU 9 CLO2-2GCpOU O OpGLA9'pOIJ O IJJG AL1JG ill GdflOUi2OjçG bGLJoq2 JU MJJJCJJ IJLIJJ2 O2GLAG 4JJG A9J11G O ( JJGU M G2UJGc'uuoc p bLGqicçGq rriu pGiuuiu-o-bGL]oq JIJOLWSpOU 2Gç J MGO 2jJOC O aILnCpTL9J A9LWpJG J JLIJJ LG 9MLG O CJJIJG2 4}J9T

Edfl!011 () jocj o IUAG4WGU /diJJ p bLoboLiou'1]JOCJC

MJJJOJTI JJG GXOGUOfJ2 2jJOCfC fO 2LJTC4J1L9J ALWJG uq s LUG2JTLG2WG2flLG2 JJG qGAiiOU O JUAGUJGIJ4 LOUJ MJJ ïç Moiijq JJ9AG GGU

= Js•; + ()T4LIJJ JUOLW9'çTOU 2G4 J/JOLG COUAGUJGUIJA

MJJGLG ' boi€cpou obGiioL COU24L1TCG LOLU UOIJ4X 21TpGç O 4JJG

— = (i•; — ;—ii.';)J, + cl ()bLGqJcçpJG 1T21U JUJOLLIflrçJOU AJJ9'pJG 94 l!11JG — j J2:

GdLnçJou (2) pojq qGAiJou o L1TG ('\y.) LOW AJ1JG J!LTGLJA

= + c* (2)

LG ( T2 JUJOMU JUJWGqJ9GA OJJOMJU LGOLUJ2 Yuq LGMLJfG GdflJOU ()GC9I12G JCGA 2LHCflLJ ALWJG (GxbGcq ) i op2GLArpJc HGUCG MG4O COULflC JOLGCJ' O 1T1TLG ALWJG2 JT1U Iua4LJTIJJGuç2 9f 4}JG2G 1UJG2

A9L1pJG2 OujA iwuJGqJGJA OIIOMJU X LGOLIJJ uq j11LJJGL 12 110 UGG

Page 12: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

-ni-1ori9 qstbi w Idsiisv x 9irIJ 9rI 5v1edo m1ft 11 '.enoiisiD3qx3 rlDso1qq air{T 8.e9ldsiisv isiubini niI19bnu rlf diw rn9Ido1q 1dthuiv

i1e-3mi d b9DsI 3iIoq xsi uon5obns lo m3ldoiq 1ibinc 3rLt biov xsi siLt lo noLtsiisv siLt nsrLt asthqiu DiIoq xt sis asriqiu siLt Ii 2Isbom

.2uonsoxs as bsiisii sd n (V) noiiirps lo sbie bnsr{-r1ii siLt iii sIdthisv noiiqmu2afi nr1insbi 9Th s1m sw ioiimis iuo bLnnoD o isbio iii

-i61 iisr!w mif1 d bsu bs3sqxs svieado ri sw mio1si x.st briuois it{i xifnon siLt sbubrii idi sIqiDniIq ru .rroithsb nsmisvni iisrLt nitsIum

lo asuLsv euosniiioqmsrio lo iIoii3Lfbo1rii siLt biovs oT .IIsw as insrris!s otni asid vfisrt.silumia sDuboltni iiiim rhiriw lo tnsnoqrnoD xnon siLt ml sulsv bsiDsqxs mifl siLt tsrhi smiras sw rioiasisi ssie-bnoDs siLt

-iuisd siLt iS SIJLI3V 9IdSiTsV 15111 ol L6u1p5 ai ) lo irIsiIoqmoD XJ$1H011 i{DS9

XSl sill flufIidfflO3 d ) i3ullerIOD sw ei IsriT .boiisq Iroivs1q sf11 lo ruin i II . — I boiisq iol ainsfiOqifioD XSiHOII siLt bns I boiisq iol alnsnoqmoD SELl SW liiLt sldsnsv airli bns 5S12 lEIft siLt mx lafiDsiOl 5W 15Th SldSflJ3V Eiihl

bslsb nOiisrrnOIfli Ino siLt EL noilsmiolni xsT .si1q1ue sill J3xJllanOD ol bnoDse 1110 10 sbiE bnsrl-liii1 sill £10 bsbubni El Isill

— I TS5 lo bssrls bsmu2as ai T8f iii sisi isislni bsbsqxs sill slqmsxs io'I .1IOIEE9191 ssJa

HIfl19DflOD iloiiqmiiEafi 1110 lo iioi1loiV .8(?f 101 slsi bns-iss sill sd ol siLt flOiEE5i51 sslE brIoDsE sill olni s3jJbollni bluow lo 'ii!idsv1sEdo siLt

ol b1sw1o1iilisilE i II .) bsmuas nso moil bslosqxs "suif lo noilsrvsb i airLt Ii bsasidnu sd Hiw eislemsisq l.s1ul3uil sill 10 siJsrnulES iuo lsr{l worle

EslSfflulE5 1110 Hsi{l 9EiOfl sliriw IOn i lisq bsllimo sill II .10119 setOn-slir{W s siLt IsdisfiW 9l5ilEsVHi SW )lD3ib iIoiISDftlD5qE lsrLtIXJI £ eA .bsasid sd hhiw

sd bluorlE lsrLt sfdsnsv .s — sslE biloDsE sill Hi wofi i1as mill lo nOrEulDrIi

.' 10 sismilEs 1110 E1SILS — sldsrisv bsllimo Isiirusloq EiiLt iLtiw bslfilsnoD liolqxs Esismils siLt 51511W ssia laift siLt iii bsEu 915 213s1ls-bsxft miiI

ol noi1s-oi sill sau sw ssi bnoDsE sill HI .slsb lo lsnsq slor{w siLt

ei ioismii di ndi noiiDo1q sia-iaifi r1i iii mii irisi&ioo s Ino esau no .miol&i xsi 3111 lo is9' sill iii 1no bsilqqs ioismiiae 8u m-nwo-ni-sDssisThb s 1iosxs

sill nimio1 ni asldsiisv bssl isillo ebubni sw insi8rio3 Dftiosq-mill £ ol noiiibbs ii! -si)sqxs ISnoilibiloD Dllisqa-mifi1o noiiuiiJdua silT .insmlasvni miolsi-iaoq iol iasio1

enssm mill bas aso1q 3imsnb s ai inemiaevni erii noieisiq bbs enssm mill jol rioil on nssd sisili bsnl smil is nssd svsd blow insmiasvni Jsilw lo siuassm iooq s sd 'sm

.miolsi xsi sulsv wosnsioqmslnoo lo saii sill moil niaiis asid 'iisnslhsmia sldiaaoq biovs oT8

xsirion rbss lo noiisisqxe amifi sill mdi emuaes ew lo elflsnoqrnol xslnoni sill lo .rniolsi xsi sill eiolsd sulsv asldsiisv Isdi alsups lo lnenoqmo3

of

Page 13: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

IT

LGLG2EOL2 LG iIJUOAiOIJ MG LGdIIILG UUIUGLOIT2 9flWbpOIJ2 o mb off L bLoplGuJ o JJ9fqtq GLLOL2 LG cou2i2l€uc uq Awboçicjj? 6Jc!Gu LGb6c;!AGJ? MJJGIi rJJG GCOIJq-2cG

1ob9ff11 (J) JJ2 apoMIJ p9- ;p€ e€couq-cG bwGGL IUG8 uq ;prL 2çxJ-nrnqGuJGq iiu q€uiiou o lu GdnçJou Ci)•

ffX LG0LI1J ru ollL 2Gcnb) i bLoGqiou WG8flLG GxbGcGq bc;j? - i&offjq p€u cpcnc 'U p bLGqJc€q ;pc ziJoLnJçJou Ju (u joi GxUuibj& qnLru

JjJG rq6uqc9;rou OCCJIL2 O3S?t MGU GUCOflUL buoq JU M}JICjJ JJG LLU O2GLAG2

COU2LffC4 IOLGC92 OL JJG L24 bO2ç-LGOLUJ ?G9V10 MG bGdrnrc!ou J0L G9C 1LIJJ 1121U q A9'iJ9'pjG OL LW 'uqiU MJJICJJ LGOLUJ2 OCCIIL JJJ 4JJ!2 GXS1JJbJ& MG L2-2G bLolGcçJou

cpua j,o 9'oiq 2ncp couornJqiu bLopJGw2 MG 2qG2Gb ?G'L2

?GcL 9U i 12 1TIJCJGL MG4GL iuAGaçLuGuç qGcJ2Tou2 m'qG u T88Q uçcibçGqOL Gxg'uJbJG I'x jçGouiJ yc o jg ii bs22Gq J9G IU

jç iwboLU qGlJuG JJG x GxbGLJUJGIJ42 C9LG11II? JU JJG fluiçGq12 fJIJJqsuqJGq8

tO1JOMJxJ u iUJiJ LGOLUY j 4pG?. qo qGdnGJ? cbrILG GXBGC49pOLT2M}JGJJGL JJUG9L bLo)Gcçiou GCJJUJdnG2 9qGdrrcGJ?. G2CLG IJLUJ2 GXbGC4!OU2tLOIJJ 1iJ bGLcGIr iu bGLCGIJç !U flJG A9JITG O qGbGIJq2 oubU'Lç o bLGAion2 TX LGOLUJ (ancp JJG iqncpou iu coLboLçG LGGLLOL2 pi92Gq OM9L GLO bGLioq2 III M}JIC}J JJGLG MGLG C}J9UG2 fJJ1I MGLG

4O JJG GXGJJ 4}J MG LG IJJG9211L1IJ 4}JG 2LITC41TL9J A9L9jG M14JJ 21IJ1TJCIJfMGLG UO C}JTUG2 JU JJG 9X coqG J porijq pG JI1JbLGC12GJ? G2TUJGq uqG2pUJ9'4Gq i OITL JqGIJ4JIJ 22ITmb;iOU 12 COLLGC ju bGLioq2 U MJJ!CpC9JG2 JU }JG coqG \ 2JJOi1J G O TJJG GxbGcGq 2JU uq bLGci2GJ?.LHG AJ1IG O 12 Op2GLAY'pJG 12 CJG9IJA GUi1OJ12 ?G'L2 1OIJOM1U 211p2UJ9J

MPGU 9 X LGOLLU ?IGL !2 qi2çJç 4JJG iqGu;q?Ju 92211UJb4JOU 4JJG

(j_;)— — L')

LJoq 1 — 5 iIqOLIJJçJOU JO OCfl2 Oil JJG 9X 21TLbL!2G MG 2G4M}JGLG ALipJG2 M1p C9'LG UJ9'LJ2 LG LIu-ebGcJ1Jc bLolGcpoue fT2iu hG-

(x\v') — (x') = + — +c (8)

LGOL AGrL:

CLO22 IJLUJ2 HGUCG MG G21UJTG JJG tOjJOM!u WoqGJ OL GYC COflUçL?-49'X-G2çJUJUçG JJG ¶qI1T2UJGU CO2 BS'L9'IJJGçGL MpiCp 12 GXbJiCJJ? 22ITIJJG qGJJC9

Page 14: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

15

uicJb9TGq cpu€a}JG fX coqG JJJJ GLW CU jq ;o 2iuqjCu Jr1CçnciOu2 !U 2JJ6 IT2GL CO JIJ ?ta biroLMpIGp L6J9iA6 bLJcG cpu o cbi;j iu H2GL co qbGuq2 ou GxbGcçGq cpuc2 iii

1EoL Gx9'uJb1 coU2Tq1. pG IThGL co o cbiçj b€cnjcJou LOm ynpcp (TaY !'OL O}JGL ?GL ItJJp nbou L6dncç

GXcLGwJ? CJ1LJJ6L2OUJG pGC9IT6 O JJG JLG UJ1W6L O IJI1J2IJCG b9L9iJGçGL241OU OL f}J12 GJJJOL i Uo qicnjç MLG qoiiu psu 2Jw9çJou MorrJq pGLG2I1ç' uq OL GUGLjJ ouc onjq btccL uJxJmnIu jqcJJpooq j,pc JJJGjipooq fflJc-

GJGCf 2 O bLGAJon2 CJJ9IJG213

o 4}TG IPG GIIGC2 o uçjjI. uçcib9'çGq cp9'u2 uipç gujb,OL 91JO4JJ6L LGOLHJ 12 HO IiJGJ? 4O pG ooq ?G'L O GXmJuG GJGC2

coq iu M92 flLGL LGA!GM!U coqcoq i pGiu LGAJGMGq LOL GxmbJG i cociuçLA JGJ2JçGq ¶ CJJ9'UG O 4}JG

GxbGLimGu 12 jijj? o G AJoJYGq iii Ag'i iu Mpicp coLboLçG x'22nmbçiou pç C9U O2GLAG JJG COLLGC4

9 g bo22rp1G iu OLGL uxiiui€ boii. o, ocn bbLocW GCOUqOH JLG JJflJG2 Ju JJG coq 92 JJG pocy o UAGU p? ponjq G9COL2 MJJGH CJJOO21IJ 4JJG GXbGLJIJJGHç OL G9CJJ CO1TIJLA i'ç wc ocnMG qG2CLIpG JJG LGJOLHJ2 MG açnq? OL GgCJJ COnUL? MG COIJ2JqGL bLJIJJL?

coLboLçG coq qnLiu oITL 2UJbJG bGuoq V2 MJJJ pG CJGL GJOM M}JGLGJJJ 2GAGLJ O 4JJG COfTHL1G2 MG 24f1q? GL€ MGLG 2GAGL9J CjJ1JG2 IU }JG

OLJ OL JS XGLJJi GGAG bLoAiqG2 JJG G2 GXbGLJWGIJ O1 4X LGOLJJJ ruq bLc2Guç LG2ITj2GC9112G MG GX91UJHG Jf COnuçLic2 MG CJJOO2G OL GC CO11UçL) JJG LGOL1JJOH LG2J1J2 OL 4jJG ?GL2 couiuGq UJgIOL LGOLHJ2 iu bbGiY

OL JJG flIJJçGq OL GC AGL 2IIJCG J5 9uq OCfl2Gq OfiL q12Cn22JOHJH JTI1JIIJJIJ2 }J22G IJq JfIpp9'Lq (ja) MG bLGaGucq G2IWJOU LG21Tj2

21 OA6LA611

2 E2mOU O 4JJG VI46LIJJAG j/oqGJ

bo2-LGjoLm ?GLuq GX9UJ!H!IJ GUGC2 O4 CJJUG2 JIJ 4x-q1fl24Gq OH JIJAG2LUGIJ JH }JG L2LGOLUJ JHAG2çUJGUç MJ4JJ JJJOLUJ9TOU 9'AJJ9'PIG 111 JJG ?GL bLioL O 4JJG LGOLIJJ2u'mG GU1OU OL GC 4X CJJHG MG 2fHq? OLGC9'2çJU bo2ç-

Page 15: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

OIL iUA2çW6U; O Wileji JLGL ;pnu ;po 68ç1wn;Gq U G916L 211q1626XGLCI2G LG dnnjJ;nçiAGJ? 2iJJJIJnL ;o ;joa o osn bbLo9cJi JG1qrn G;iwncGq Gcç2

UJOqG 112ILI JJG COUAGUIIOUnI nbbLOnCJJG2 0L COWbgLr0IJ I' nJW02 fl C2G2 }JG LQ2J11I8 OlB IJ owlc;Gq AnLI9PIG bLGBGU; couq !G LGboL; in LG211J8 GLOW ;p€ woqlqJucJnqG cnp om in ;p BGcouq arnc ;jqa eponjq cpn ;p€ born; ;rrnn; I, JJGLG

Aonjq p€ pin€q qoliJJMnLq M cpccjc ;pia ;?bG o pw in 2;GbB L!'c'rncoqricpou oj IUAGB;UJGUç IUcGIJçJAGW H0GAGL in I}J1B C9G p6 GBiUJnGq coGUJcrGuc OUyUOpGL cOUcGLIJ wip; pG p6 bucG o iui€çiun; ooqa MonJq LI2G tOuOMJu }JGILIJ JuAGBçrnGu; cx cLGqi; GxbsLiGucG JnL.6 bo;i 9OCJCB ;o ;p€ qrnnuq oL ;pcrL bLoqncc;x uq uou;x n€i n wip; pnbbGu ii oi. cxnuibj& pG LW2 ;pn; pu; ;p woe; pom;o p !uJboL;nuç JJGLG ujriç G n boalpAG CLOBB-BGCpOUnJ COLL6J9cIOJJ GAG€U }JG

bo2J;JAGJ? cotjn;q OHL GBcJWn;Gq cocwcrGu; on rnn? p pinq nbMnLq EOL IIJG pIBi0 xçcuç ;pn; orn!;;q son effLbL!BG iiq ;pc iucjnqcq 2IILbLJBG LG

i JJJG JL2 LOM LGboL LG2JTJ2 opiuGq jom !mciou oJJJJG COG4JC!GIJ GUJILG2 oL OIIL LUOGJ n2!u CJJLTG LG LGboL;Gq

uq qGbLGcwpou JJOM9'UCG2 IAGLG 1pGUGqJU yiTçLnw LGqncGq JJG COLbOL9'çG JIJCOIJJG ;x LOLU bGLcGu;

2J Vn2Lfl2S COflU4L ffG2flJ42

oiu. bbLocp ojjoq p?. JJO2G OL pG COUAGUPOIJJ j/ bbLocpAG qG2CLIpG G2G LG2flJ2 tOL G9C COflIJlL?. GJOM pG!UU!IJ MiçpIJG LG2bOU2G O 1IJAG2UJGIJ 4O CJJLTG2 III JJG UG4 LG1LIJ 0 !UAG!U

;rx bL9'WG;GL2 ccombirn?iu IIWIOL LGOLW2 bLoAJqG gu obboL;nuiç2.O4JJGL iucjoq JJ GxbJoi; OJTL Jui1içiou JJg CLO22-GC;JO1Wj A9119IOU IU

o ) uq CO OSGO i9jna o x bLmçGL2 jjJ2 Y'bbLocp T2 u-JG2 MG 112G cmJcG-J.Gq A9JflG2 O UOUX A9L19pJG2 (Jucnqu combouGu2

ITJIJ COuAGUcJOU91 iuLnmGuJ ALJ9'pJG2 (IA) G2çJUJ9çOL EOL JJG Jj\ G2çJ-bbLog'cJJ MG UGX LGbOL; ! 'PJG G2;JWG2 O L2l-qGLGIJCGq t LUOcJGJ

O JIIJJ LGITJ LOUJ }JG 29Uq9'Lq bbLocp LGb0L;Gq JIJ GCOU ;o OfiLcorubouGij;13o1 t: cjJniJc JU wLJGç ijii) 12 JiJGJ?. UOI2IGL cjJu iu

2nLbLi2G2 bbLocp pcsn MG GJ1GAG uii iu uoux combouGu2icILJJ? 21uicu lu mu bLGAJ0IT2 2;nqG2' MG GUJbjJ2G LG2rIJç2 1T2JIJ

LI1J2 C2jJ UOM MJflC p OçGu GGJJ onuq ;o G 2ci2;iC9flA uq GCOUOUJ-bLocp Ju qqJJou MG bL0AJqG G2m9çG2 o cp LUOGJ 1JLUGUGJ o iucjiiqG

JJ9'JG 2flUJW9LiG2 cJJG G2iW9'4iOU LG21TJ2 OL G9C COJIULX J121U OI1L

Page 16: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

N

bLGcJ2GJ? G2iIJJ9'çGq M}' 2JJOCJ pGiurnu-oJ-bGLioq C92}J JOit 12

fl21u oiu bbLocp iwçq coGuc1Gu o 011 2 JI2G uqiu iipicp bb1? oni bbLocJrOfl jj,c 11112 2flG242 p fG pç bo2ç-Lqouu ?G9'LbGLcuç on mIrnJycnLJn uq bLocJu nscowG) uq LGcLo9'ciAj?. bp2iu-4}JG COLbOLçG HCOG 49'X LG bcnç ('uq jom o

bGLcGuç jjT uJs1oL LGOLUJ ii2 qobçcq 9fG GGC 111 1OMGL!IJ

i LGJ1CG jLow bGLcGuç IJq 4JJG 2flLCJJTLG M2 OJAGLG LOLJJ 2JUcoLIJG nJq GjiHJi119çG JJG JJ/' EGCc1AG 111 }JG COLbOLT4G TIJCOIJJG

nllçij 4pG Guq OJ; JQ E11L1JGL LGtOLILU M92 bLobo2Gq JOMGL cJJG coLboLçGju bcuç coLbOLçc !11C0WG X 2flLC9iG M&2 iuLOqfiCGqLGOUJJ JJG O COLbOLçJOU2 2JUJC9ucJ? Jil JJG iniq-

1c2 G2çJmçGq COGJ.JJCJCHç J2 IJOç 2ççi2çJC9J? 211111JCH4

boiu G2JUJ9G JIJcJnqJu Cp jo qo uoç JGL boruç uq20 IIJOLG LG2oLT9'pJG /Jn LG MGJJ MJ}JJU r 2'uqLq qGAou Ocuq pG JG22 1JIJJç?I pnç cpG 2U9L GLLOL 0J 0250 12 J9'LG GJJO1JJJCOGCJGUç O, OH 12 j9'LG2 O G2çimçG2 in 29iubJG picp

L2 LOM OL 11GJJ(111J O 9'pJG LGbOLç2 }JG LG2flJ2 OL J31J IPGqcqrrcçiou br'ecq oswqricq LO11J cf 4O fJ BGLCGIJr uq bGLccu JJGLG9GL uq J1JAG2çfflGIJ

2dnqA cpG J2ç 011G ETLGCcIAG lu TO cJJG coLboL9'çG JUCOUJG M9'2 LG-

JU B111"- GLG MGLG 0flL JJJ1OL X CJJLJG2 !U IJJG T88O2 9IJJ tAG C}JOO2G

eGJifizJJ

1U2JIJiLJCUf'JGL }JG C0UCJU2J0H2 'uq VJJG G2çJUJ9Gq COGIjJCIGJJ OH JJG 'qqicJouj GLW 12C2 JOIA J2 JucJnqGq n GdnçJou JUCJH2JOIJ o jq C92 qoc2 uoçpJG LGb0L2 JJOJA jJG LG21IJ2 CJJUG i JJG 2JJOCfC o pGiuUJu-o-bGLioq(jj) bbGL V2 CJJGCJ( cp 0111 LG21TJ42 9'LG L0fl2 2GCOU b9'uGJ O

JJG OIJG ii opçmq tOL cJJG flUJGq G2 fl2JU C0IMbH2c q9' !U 0111( 12 OQO2 MJçJJ ¶1 GLLOL 0 052J 1}1!2 C0GfflC1GHI !2 AGL? 2UJJJ9'L

IIJOqGJ 1J21IJ JJJG 2IJLbLJ2G2 GcpuJdITG 111 Gdfl0U ( JJJG COGIIJCIGIJc 011

Page 17: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

12

G2cUJGq 'uq i uo njGcGq p? iucjn2Jou o pocj cp joiFAOL CGLUJIJ? G241m9çGq COGCJGIJ OU U3 j9'LG uq bLGci2Gj?

conjq LG2OIJpJA nuuJcJbc6q " io.bGLccu M2 JGAiGq pITt M9'2 4}JG LG2flJ Oj 4pG flIJIJCOU MJBC}J OIJG

bccrr Ju COLbOU7G IUCOUJG 2JTLCJJ9LG OGrLuiu2 LOUJ 'y'j bGLcGuç JJG L9G OU qi2Liprr4€q IUCOI.UG LGuJ9JuGqEU.GCAG ru OGLmuA qncq coLboL9G IUCOUJG ou

2 CGLUJ111?

CIJCG

2Juicuç qo uo cpu boiu ou OL !42 c12cJc9'J 2iUiT-42ic9iI?. 2JrnC9iJ3 9iJ 1UCJ112J0U O C2}J TJOM MpJCJJ OIJJ? IJJL1IJJJ?1

LOL hL9'UCG JG boiuç G2WG O O2 OU 12 GCOUOUJiCJJ?. uq 2ç-LGflCG 4O bGLccu M1J 9 1TL4pGL L€qnC4OU ;o bGLcGu 2cç oL JJ9 LG2OU9JG }JOL1OIY MG CJJOO2G TO MJJGU 4JJG COLbOLG IIJCOUJG 9X M92p9' pc Gxi21u 49'x coqc ourjq pG LGI6A9'u tOL lpGL CflLLGU qGcJ2Jou2 OAGLdnGuç CJJIJG2 iç 12 qicnj 2GJGC OUG ?G9L 1IJ MpICJJ LUJ2 9LG CGL1UELHCG GIJC4G 2GAGU COLbOL9'fG x CJJJJG2 21UcG j3Ø uq !AGU pc LG-

22 E1IJC6

COIJLJG1JCG JGAGJ

c2JmcGq COGjJCJGUç !2 UO dinç€ 21Fi2c1CJJA 2JIJJCJJ Yç JJG 2 bGLcGu

C!Ad11 4}JG LGI9T1AGJ? amgjj 29'UJbJG ;p 2uq9Lq GLLOL2 YLG J9'LG 9uq JJGCOJ1ULJG2 YUq jJG JUCJII2IOU O C9'2J3 ibM OG2 U0 GLGCI borne G21UJ9'G

IPG boiu G21IUT;G LOL JJG C0GUJCJGUc OU 12 21WIJ9L O LOL OcJJGL

GC9JT2G O 4JJG C}J9IJ1U LGIJAG AJJ1G 01 qGbLGCWpOU qGqncpoU2CGIJ ij bGLcGU JJJJ12 C}J9UG GUGL9G CLO22-2GCçiOIJJ ALWOU LOL IJLIJJ2E11GC4!AG iu T8O DGUmLJ JOJAGLG pG cothoL9'G JIJCOIJJG X L0LU 20 bGL-

24 DGULI

C92G jJG COGC1GIJ OU C2JJ UOM 12 GC0UOUJ1C9JJ? uq 2c12JCII? 21u1LJcLwiucJuqGq bouç G2çJUJ9çG ou 12 uG9LJ? flUGCG 9JçpOi1JJ JIJ flJi2

Page 18: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

I0

uJJ'x1mnm L9G2 o qGbLccJciou 9IJoMqbcsu MpIJ 9pOJ!2JJ1U GX14JIJ 1UAG2ç1UU4 9jJOMTJJC2 uq LGqncrn 4JJG

EUGCAG III J5 L4OLM LG11CG IJJG COLbOLçC JucoWC 9X L0IJJ 2O 0

2JO MOLliU?.

G2JUJG Oil C92 UOM 12 LGJç1AGJ? J9'L pJ1 JWbLGcJ2GJ?i G2çimGqo muJcrrqG pnç cojciuç ie ijj 2çpç1CJJA iu2JunJcuç jjr boirçO C92JJ TJOM 1UCLG262 }JG boju G2çJUJ O 4}JG COGWCIGUc 013 911 OLCJGL

G2c!uJG OIJ 2 1J€91J? GLO 9Uq AGL?. JWbLGcI2GJA G 1UJq JJJJG IUCJII2JOIJDG2b!cG CO1JAOJffJJOIJ JJ 12 4JJG A69'L Gx91xJJuc 'U jp bo!u

GGC1AG III fJJ 2WG X6g1JAG J3 IPG Mjjç (JuAG2cwGu c9X cLGqJf) it poppq in 92

i' Jg coLboLçG iucotu it qcicq om o bcLcGu GUGC-JJJG o fJJG C}WUG2 JJJ ;p J,4GçjJGLJ9IJq2 12 LGJ91AGJ couAoJnGq

3 JJJG GJJGLJ91J2

lJm9Gq COGUCIGUç 011 GLLIJ 12 GCOUOUJiC1J? 911 2ççi2çic9J 2iUiC9'UçdnJJç9çiAGJ? cpsixq pA IUCJIT2IOU o 4G 2JJOCJ 4o C92 TJOM jcponp cIJG013 2 o• içj 24U91 GLLOL oj ojj JJJG boiuç i uoç

G2JW9G2 OL JJ LGboL4Gq JU 9'pJ6 JpG G2Jw9Gq COGCiUçL9çG o bGLCGU bbJcq

uq qJ2çLipricGq IUCOUJG M92 LGUJOAG 113 M0 G2 20 PA JoboL9'G 49X L9'G pG qJIJGLGUcG 111 LG2 O COLb0L9iOU OL LG1IJGqp jg Vrbu cp9'uq poçp o quJquq vq COL-

2JIJJ1C91112 11JCJflG ¶flJq }JG G2çJm9Gq COGLJJCJGUç Oil 4}JJ2 GL1JJ 12 U04 2J2çJCJJA

urJcuç p qqiçiou coGpc1Guç qoG2 ioç C}J9'IJG JJ JJG 2}JOCfC C9'211

LOL jçjA capmq CoGpCiGLJ4 OIl 2 O@@ Uq J2 2IJ2JCJJA 2J-bGLcGuç

XG2 LG2ITJçJIJ 113 911 IUCLG92G 113 JJG C0LbOLG arcotu jow bGLcGul

JIJ J35 gpojJpq bGzcGuç qGqnc4Jou J0L jocj c0LboLG JUCOUJG

Page 19: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

T

OU C92JJ JOM i 22çJc9JJ? Jrnc'urcp jo joi1i. ;p born; ou JiJJ;J?uq ;p COGWCJGU

2OUJGMJJ 2W9JJ JJ91T J1G OJJGL tOL 4JJG 29iIJbJG JJJJG IUCJIT2JOU OW02 0}JGL C92G2 JJG cOGJCJGJJç OU ! 2çi2çJc9jJ?. irnjcu; I;JJO11JJ

MG C}JOOG JJ 92 4JJG ?GL o GX9IJIJUG OL 11JG flui;cq K1uq0Iw 2bcu; L9';G U T0O M92 LGLOC;JAGJA CJJ9IJGq LOW bGLcGu;

11112 LGJ9'JAGJX 2jJ LG CJJ9!J€ 12 C9JJ? MICG 92 92 1 9bbGY'L2 2IUCG

JJJG fl[{ COLbOL9G !Uc0m6 M92 cqnccq [LOLU bGLccuç oi. jj

flUI46 guqouJ

ot 'uq ;jr i IWbLGcI2GJ?i G2;rnçGqpGJOM IPG !UCJ2!0U o[ C92JJ [jOM qoa uo; 9'IIGL JJG o iwbcçCOGjCJGUc2 OL HJO2 O4JJGL COJIULJG2 MG LGJ1LU ;o ;pG iu;GLbLGç9'pou o ;JJ12COG[C1GIJ4 OU ie bo2içlAG uq 2IuITJc9uç pu; aornGMp9'; 2UJ9JJGL ;pu ;p

Jpri2 MG CjJOO2G J(J 9'2 pG ?GL GXUJ!UG OL MGqGU IJJG G2PW94Gquq bLoAi2Jou2 MGLG 2CL9bbGq

G4GC4AG jo uq :o bGLcGU; U JJG ?iG9L2 ;JJGLG9;GL o; !UAG2UJGUMGGIJ LGITCG ;JJG coLbolSf;G JUCOUJG ;x M92 LGJTCG [LOW ;o fO bGLcGIJ;

MGqGU

4JJG 4GJJCLJ9IJ2 91G MG9'JGL ;JJgu JJ02G [OL rno; O4}JGL conu;L1c2COGfflCJGU OU C92}J JOM i iwbjsuipj?. JLG JJJJG2G LG211J2 9'2 M;JJ JJ02G [OLGCLG92G2 ;JJG COGWcJGUc ou pX poric jJ9j[ JfOLGOAGL 4G G2W39G O[ JJG2 LOIIJJJA 1JG 291116 OLGL O[ rn9€uJcnqG 9'2 COG[JC16U4 ucjnqrn C92}J UOM

1116 boiuç G2;1W9'çG OL JJG 011 12 19G pii 4JJG 2911q9Lq GLLOL9!U jLow JO ;o 2 bGLccuç u2b9111 LGflCG 4JJG J bGLcGuç 111 911q

jj bnuJ9LG 62ç1W9;62 LGb0L;Gq iu 2GcçJou 9IJ 2;9ç12;ic9JJA 2Jrnjc9u;Jiç;J6 1116 co6ciGu; 62;11u9ç6 [OL C9'2}J UOM 12 AGL? j9LG (CoU2!2cGU MJ1 cJ36MP611 ;jJ 2pocjc cajr jOM rucJnqGq COGWCIGUc ou CjJ9IJG2 AGLA

G2çIW9çG O J3 013 ( 9IJq 12 29'Uq9Lq GLLOL O O25 9L6 LGJ94AGj) J9LG1116 LG2JTJ2 [OL L4OLM9? [OL J85 9L6 LGBOL;Gq lu 9'pJc ( Bo JJG born;

Page 20: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

porJq EW0U uq i,inw (TOM)O fl}( jLW2 pU O COLJiUGU9J EflL0bGU 1JL1fl2 TB COU2T2GLT IMflJ }3G CL6J1J nq? o

12LJJ6 UqiU GXCGB2 BGU2IçIATçA O JIJAG84UJGIJf O C&2}I jJOM lB LJJOLG CJJLCIGLIBIC!/cIC13G HJ! OL JJ12 2flBiO1J(biu oi? uq flGJnw) nuquc i.jciiA jL cj LGçncJnLrIJ MGo pq ru jf1LG pcj LCJW6B i'qq cj CO(IU;LTGB MJp cJJG JL€Bç CO6CT6JJ c2çJUJY'ç62

JJJG COGCi€U 1W9çGB L6 bo6uii pi€q nbMLq 4 LGOLW2 9L€ 91J flJqiCoL

JJ) yqicrmGuc co o pi2 WUiJ1q6 !mbl 2iu1Jcrnp? bLGAJon2 G2JUJ9€2 1J2JU UJOLG cL9qiJOuJ Ga1UJJ1oU cGcjJuidflG2 (2GbGL rrniç ot ?uAG2mGuc GxbGuqiçuTLG 2iuJc9uJX iujj pir JuJbJGqb1 }J q1n2çmGn CO242 O 1UAG2WGU4 9LG 011 fG oLqGI. o 2-TO bGLcGuf

fl2JIJ 4JJG WGuU2 oi '\y iiq LcboL4cq 111 1}JG2G 9iG2 !UT-K!1q011j nJq 4}JG flUi4Gq 4G2JGXCG22 2GU2i4iAi4 o JHAG2çIIJGILç o c9'2p jom iu ibu fluJGq

(j) woqj fl21u buGJ qs'r MG uq GMqGIJCG o LG2IqIJ9'JO JJO2G JU 0IJCJJLJ2ç uq H!mmGJPGL (Jf) MpO LG-G2;im9G JJG pGj uq

ciGuç2 'n LoHJJJ? 2iwifL MG LGboLçGq IOL cFG fllJJcGq 2GE 9'uqj M1}3 GAGL? G2p1JJG M14JJ1IJ MO 2UqLq qGAJçiou2 O 111J14*14 JJJG2G CO-JLG JJJJG OçJJGL G2c1m9'çG2 LUG tIOIJJ o O O 9 1J1JJ O poncuIJq coo JJJJJ LG2bGCcJAGJ? pi poji COITUçLJG2 GLLOL2 MGLG AGL?

GXCGbç uq biu MJJGLG boiuç G2ciwcGa mi coo jomJJJG COGU1CJGUc G2çim9G OU M2 2c i2c1C9iJ?L 211J1C9'1Jc 111 GAGL) COHIJ4L?

ij boju G24iUJ9G2 JT2JIJ OITL G2çiI1JpOU gbbLocJJ OL MGTAG 0 }JG OflLçGGJJMG p9'AG bLG2GucGq G2ç1W910U LG2I1J2 0L Jf COflIJçLiG2 uiJq oriuq LOfl}JJ? 21W-

j nmuJJL?. O JG2flJ42

COG1JC1GUc 011 C2}J IJOM 12 29'p2cJC9JJA 21IHJCIJç

21011 O1 C92JJ IJOM IOMGL2 4jJG boirrc G2cJIJJ9'cG 011 ( 2OUJGMJJ 'uq cJJG G2cimcGqJu 2uJbJc (M1JJ GXCGBçJOU O BI" out uq 3bJIJ) JJJG UCJ1i-uucq COGWCJGIJc o 0@03 2!W!JL co JJO2G OL 1JJO2 OJ JJG Oç1JGL COITUçLJG2

MG CJJOO2G 92 JJG ?G9'L GXUJ1UG 0L JJG flIJIçGq G2 IPG G2-CLGqIc

IJJCOLUG 9X LG LOUJ bGLcGuc co f bGLCGUç u'uq GJJWUGq }JG TIJAG2cUJGIIc

JJJJG JJX RGOLUJ ycc o jg rn fluicGq LGi1CG JJG coLboLS'cG

JS flUfl6 G2

Page 21: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

To

1ExcGbcou2 1JX uq 14OLM HI MJ1CT LSOLW OCCIILLGq }JG Guq O

GMGGU 0T2 uq O52 uq LGGL JJ9U Ø — 9IJq cjcnj;qJIJAG2çuJGIJ LG2 JU IOJTL LOu7b2 —

JG22 OO2 pMU 002 uq OT2JJG LGOLUYjg jO 211UJUJL1G JJG q9' 1J bYL2LUOUiOfT M MG LofIbGqpG ?GL bLioL 4O qJG LG0LUJ JJG ?G9L O IJJG LGtOLIJJ uq IFG ?G9L 0JJOMU

jo cxbJoLc JJJ2 boipijJ;? MG €xmuq JuAGaçmGu LçG2 (i\i'') inLG1OLW bGLJoq M!P Y UJITCJJ 2W9JJGL LG2bOU2G pG?oIJq 4JJG LGOLIU bGLioq

GxbJcru9poua 2flG2 p 02GLAG q1TLU JJGLG20J2 o Uc LGflLU2 LGdrnLGq rni4TG In 2UJGUç B°F 9IGLUT!AGLGbLG2GU4 JLG CflJG2 1U JJG UGç LGpTLU JUAG2çiU moL€ Lm2 W CL022

IJO CJJ9UG JJG qG2TLGq c9bifJ 2ç0CJ I- C2G GCIT2G W10L LG0LUJ2'uq nuc149'iu CLG9G U obçinj L9IJG o iU9C4iOU 1U M}HC}J CUG2 in qoLGflLU inñ pG LGdrnLGq JuiçwcG C9VG2 u }JG cbJç9J 2;ocjd 1LLGAGL2JpJJJLG20UJG qG2cLibpon2 o LW2 qGc2OUa pc ! 2!U!1CUc CjJIJG2 !U UG1ILLGAGL2IpJG uoqp 922flWiU COUAGX 9qln2cmcnç CO22 2ITCJJ 92 011L2 9LG uoç

Gcouq GXGUT cp xq cbi;j JUAG24UJGU42 9LG 2JuiC9JJcJqnuu LG0LUJ )GL2 9'lJq GIJCG n fib iq pi92Gq G2c1W9Gq COGJCJGIJ OUx LOLUJ2 LG 9uicJbçGq MG W pG Op2GLA!U piiucjiu 0 !UAG2cUJGUcCOG CIGU2 OU 92 2LfiCçfiL9J EJL24 GAGU M!JJU }JG UGOCJ9221C9'j 2G4fTb !T.Gxb1u9Jou2 O OIIL UqiU2 Mo11q (TIJqGLUJ!UG OUL iUçGLbLGç9'i0U 0 G2imGqO 4}JG 2ILHCHLJ qGGLwiUU42 0CCITL 92 fiL1U 9X LG0LLU2 IMO 9JçGLIJ9'4IAGbGLJoq2 in MJJJC}J J9LG GXOGUOf12 CJJ9UG2 JU JJG CL022-2GCçIOU9J qi2cLJpnJonGCOUOUJGçLJCI9IT Ta jJcTç LGCOAGL1U LG920U9JG G241W9çG2 12 boaa!pJG OIJJ? qnLTLr

TU 9 LIJ91JIJGL COU2J24GUç MIqJ UGOCJ922!C9J UT4OIF IPG btopjcm OL JJGju ¶rbbLocp qGacLipGq iu 2GCJ0U jLwa 9Jm9?a LGabouq o nuq9'WGJJ49J2

O xbjcuou2O JJ€ IJLHJ iUAG24IJJGUç L9G2 ou (cj PIG )•u OLGL o w9uT4nqG JTLGL cp9'u opf9JuGq iLl 2iIJJbJC OF LGLG22JOIJ29LG 2UJ9jJGL 41J9U opç9iuGq flUGL OJIL 9bbLo9c} lJJG? 9LG 9JIUO2ç 9JM9?2A9'LJ9pJG2 9LG JU2çL11IUGU2 MP!JG 2OUJG O JJG G2çIUJ9çGq COGUJCJGUc2 on

AGUcIOU9J iuacLrrnJGLrç9J A9'LJ9pJG2 9bbLo9cp Ill MJJJCJJ COIJGUJboL9UGOfl2 49X

JU 9qqrpon MG O9JU III pLo9qJ?i 2IUJJJ9L GaçJW94G2 naiu con-AG2UJGUf

LG2BOU2IAGIJG22 O JIJAG2çIUGIJç A9L19'pJG2 9TjGC1U 4G W9LIIJ9j CO24 Oi JU-

Page 22: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

wboiçuç 92J OL JjTfTLG LG2GfLC}F

AGX141G2 TU qin2uJGuc C02ç2 EITLJJGL GXbJOLT4!OU O G2G JJThOcJJG2G2 12 HJLW2 pnucpq iIJAG2çIJJGU2 ill iJ4JCib9'4iOIJ O LGJOLUJ2 OL GCuT2G Oj UOIJCOIJ-

qnLiu IJq TIJGL 9X LGOLUJ2 BL0AJqG2 jiçj nbboL OL jJG JJThO4JJG2G2mO2 biiior MOLJC VIJJ?2I O1 CJJ'UG2 1IJ Lm llJAG21UGU L9G GOLG2bOU2JAGIJG22 lAG O2GLAG 9LG 9'L LUOLG LG92OUJG }WAG GGLT Jonuq JIJ9JUJO GAGL? COHUL? MG 2nqiGq JJJG qIn2mGu CO22 nubJJGq p? LG-

GcoUoUJJC9fl uq 2ççi2çJcJ 2iuqc9'uc nHbrcç2 OH iUAG24UJG1J G9MOL rnpX GXçGIJaiOu }JG II2GL C02ç O CffbJf9J 9'IJq JJG HG LG11LU o JIJAGecJu) prAGrn cbiçj ruq bLcaGu GATqGUcG cJJ'LJG2 iu combu? bojcA (uqMG 112G LGOLLLT2 O i2OJG CUG2 JU JJG WLJUJ IHCGUçIAG2 JUAG2

bI COUCJffOU2

UJ9OL X CJJUG2TX CJJUG2 OL LCBLG2GUç1U jriwb?. iUAG2UJGIiç LG2bOIJ2G (ç JJG IJLUJ JGAGJ)qo uoç 211 G2 aiuqcu pflUCjJ!U O JUAG2çUJGIJç JIJ LG2bOU2G o uJcibGqpq x\v. > o u IPG c19'uJpou bLoppiJiG2 LcboLGq iux\v. < oo u 'pon bGLcGuç pq x\v > 'uq jj bGLcGuç

fl2JIJ UL2 WLJX 9'2 ¶111 GX9'IJJbJG LOL VJ12cLJ19'U LW2 OL MpJcpbLop9'pJJicIG2 mou JJG onL Loflb2 JjJG2G cJcnJ9çJou2 9'LG LGbol4Gq IIJ JG

Page 23: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

1J3DiEJ31DO9VI 9f1 b flOi6VLI9G :A xibneqqA leboM tr19ff1E9Vf1I

sulsv sill ioI noiaasiqxe us ilhiw nisd sw jsbom belujbs-xsl sill sviisb oT sill ninisvo noihibuoD ssiiidm sill moil msh unul ui rbiilw rrnf1 sill lo

xsl-islls silT (81 8f aismmuc bus sdisho ss) sisrla lo noilsulsv bus noilsi3slqqs lsliqsD lzsfIsi omil Is rnifl sill lo isnwo sill ol rnulsi

niblorI InsinoD sd ol sis aisnwo sill Ii muiidiliups uI .brisbivib lnsrruD : rriuhsi bsiiupsi usd1 Isups lum niulsu Eirll esusrI uisill

(IA) = — I) + (N

— — — I)]

-sqxs sill ai ;1lsvii3sqBsu sxsbni smih bus mufi sill sus bus susr{w ; smil Is sldslisvs rioilsmuoluxi no lsrloihibnoD unfi lo uolsusqo noilsl -qsi (1 bsuei esusrl wsn lo sulsv sill 8i ;hiups amuf1 sill lo sulsv srll i

enis lshiqsD lnslsviups-ISUIDDS us ei sq mufi sill bnebivib sill lnsesu bsvisDsu bnsbivib sill i ;abnsbivib no slsu xsl lsnousq sill i slsu xsl bsnisisu lo linus nsnuo sno asludiilib mufi sill fl5i{W usbloilsusrk sill d

nurfls9 buswuoi (IA) noiisups niv1o8 slddud svubsliJDsq 'ns lo sc)flsds sill uI

Is hiups evrnuft sill lo sulsv lsJlusm sill uoI noiaasuqxs niwollo1 sill blsi :1 smil

(CA) —

c1ç)\ (n)

= =c ='

— 1)\(ui' — I) = bus i muft uoI 101361 lnuoDib smil sill 2i \ susilw snimuslsb isill usbsmsusq noiisnurniu3eib xsl sill i sldsiusv silT .(

s usbnU .ninuss bsnislsu bniss 2bnsbivib lo ss1nsvbs xsl svilslsu sill .linu lo sulsv lnslfloD sill slsl % noiIsxsl slsuoqioo lo msl2 153182513

.noibshirqmi lo slsu sill 8i susilw (p—I) = % msba noilshusqmi us usbnU leufi silT .alnisul2noD svft oh bsjdu8 (CA) noilsups simixsm mifi silT

:ihiInsbi nibnuoDDs bol8 lshiqsD sill i •,I + i—,)l(

— I) =

.(8I) iu[8sH sa &ioithviisb vitsnihi io'

Page 24: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

i ? bns IsviD9qe1 boi IsiiqD 3dt has nmvni si 'A has \. 9191-iw

.noiisiDiqb Dimono lo 3is1 3rLt wofmni ihs9 .(woft rlasz n) abnebivib rrnfi nftb JnLsiiano bnooa 311T

-noD ewofIio r{ Jir{w riiwoiiod n bns eueai mrIa wri Ls lo ianoD :Eruibr1qx rimivni bas thiem'sq iaisIni bas ioas1 bnebivib lo

[11 —

(1_'A I) — r ,A)'k](v —

1) = —

I)q r._-(i —

I) —

,a +

noiiDubolq rnifl 3rU i (1i\ 'A) ;isi xiii 5isloqloD Lsniism r{i i 1sfiqD 9rI niujbs lo JEoD Isi i{ ai ('A I)') (0> 'A'k 0 < k) noiicniñ

s!diisv lo ioiv £ 1 IA (0 > 0 > 0 < 0 < J9)f1sm srl ei a iob1 Ii lo iobsv s i u rioibuboiq lo iob1

is1oq1oD no bisq isi ini thnimon 9rL i db nibnstaiiio lo uIsv rii oi visIr boo 1siq lo 9Dhq ed ei c noisfmni bsbsqxB i ;abnod as diiw !qrnfix io' .nivni lo ft9n5d xs rLt ei J bas iuquo lo 93iIq

:i 'I s Iib&ID xst tnma9vni

— + + 1) +

Lsup o bmiias) ii ia5leini thei i1-Iii-tIushb orI i t i9rlw lo as as b9iimq aswolls noisiciqsb 9rIi ai ()(1 has iii noisflni bsbqx5 orli bu1Dni isrIi sii I&iimon £ s boinijoib

:viLsri-non d o ebnebivib aoiiai nisrnoo biifli 9rlT

.0 � 1ci

:B9asfbrnqel 51sñ timiI nthianoD fLiuo1 r{T

moil mifi r1i in5v91q isrli noiiibnoD 'iiIseieveruii s i nLsiirio rfiIfi 91{T :bnbivib Iuo q oi inuoms einflrxi us niworxod

f I-T\ = Ta I \ H I mu

1004T \ t/

Page 25: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

eth lo eviivj13b 9d i w trI9mJa3vni iol noiJsup3 19Iu1 9rIi 3vimb oT : mnii s oi oi Iup9 m3ldolq xoiirnixm arrnft

(CA) = + ( ) c] (c —

I)

bn (1A)

— 1) + (

— )(.+

ei srLt) boi Lsiqs miii ni 3aseiDni ns lo 9uLsv wobsik r1j i / siei{w 1inu Javni ol Ismiqo i i tsiL 9JS2 (IA) noiisup3 . miJ is ( Isniism

lo leoD erli athiipe I + boiioq iii IsiiqsD lo limi IsniLm s no inuiei sill .1 + I boiieq iii Isliqsz

1a03 lnom1isjhs 3i1slbsnp £ liaoq ew mi1e ew noilsups erli eviisb oT :noilDnhiI

(CA) —

) = (X X)

io3 inem1ujbs sill i bits lnemlasvni lo sisi eJsle-'bse1E ai &\ sieriw (CA) noilsups ni mis3 ninsnsei bits (CA) noilsups niaTJ .elemsisq

:bIsi

(BA) — — + = — I

II .s1dsvisdonu ei I scnia sldslnemslqrrii 11sDiliqme Ion i (GA) noilsupI -moD bsheq bus noibnii1 noibuboiq eLs3a ol ernxiier inslenoD £ smues SW

:.s ririll r{ss iol benflsb 919V ol Lsniism 5iSIJp5 ism 3W noiiileq

(VA) _A\(1k —

B. + N1) = nisq Ion ai miii sill Ii linu nilsup sldsnsv lolsDibni us i 1 SIS11W

lo eiilsv lneeiq sill 211k ;thrisbivib ni"sq i miii sill Ii bus abriebivib Ej *)'I bus ;I boiisq siolsd sbsm lnsmiasviii no 2sDnswolls rioilsiDslqeb sill

eW .2silolnevni rIibuIDni boie lsiiqss amufl sill lo eiJIsv InemeDsiqel eril :slsmilee

(8A) [(.rI

— I)c—

(Jk —

\Jt\)] —

1)1 +

Page 26: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

r1oiqi1DE9U f3BG :H xibn9qqA

di moxi ixnuo t1 xoI mxfl lo I5nq b9nsIsdnn its ai u sw Iasisb 3rLT

riIJo1fIJ 81f moil boix9q oi{i nixvo asdsisb tsixiaubni esJn.sV LsdolD

-qmoD OO1 1sismixoiqq no noitsmxolni nisinoD asdsisb irIT .@@J ni Id1isv m insqmo3 om iol sisO .siIinLJoD moil in -19U .bsbivoxq xs sisb inmfsJe 9mo3ni bits i9da 93ns1sd 3vin9Ji1qffloD

nwid DnsiinoD sisb flsqmoD-sxint iuani ol bibxsbnsi xs ertoilini bits nirLtiw nieianoD sJsb nsqmoD-xint bits eboixq nkinuos inx9ftib -lib nuinIJoDs ioI sisb ieu[bs ion e5ob sinsV IsdolD .eiiinijoz eeo'iDs

insv5Ii no noiismxoIni Isnoiiibbs 3vianix ebivoxq ii bsianI .CDit3i eiueobeib 3ai3qe-mxfi 1dsIisvs bits 2noiiinf15b sisb ebisbnsie niinitoxm

-moD rii 9)lilnlJ . iseen einornienjbs xsvisdw Ism ol IaLJ 3111 91dsrt9 ol

eiix3 bus eiusx1n9 rrnft w31 'L9vitsL9x asil sinsV IsdolD asdsisb isieirq .b9DnsLsd 'Iisn riom icsib siLt nbIsm

E9LdIiIfV 3ffiD9qB-mhi'L

bits noiisDilqsi sisiiIbs1 oT .ewofloI as bonfisb sis bseu sw csldsiisv sdT noiiDLJliefloD ssb iii ais bissesi bis ol bits efluesi isDhiqms wo lo noiensixs

iii eisdmzrn msii sisb silt sbivoiq sw 1sasisb iiIimn1nu cull no snsrl siLt lo misc sill ci Jnsmiasvni ecoiD .sld&imv ibso isils esesciinsisq

siom A 8r.(JJ) itoiisiDslqsb bits () cisees bsxft sldinsl lo boie isn sill ni siro siLt seoorb sw md I) bsnisido sd ns noiisiDsxqsb ID sismilas 3c135iq silT .siufI seisiq siom sill lioqsi lsisisqee ion ob emift icom SDnia svods

boiisq-1o-ninnisd nwo cli ?io sulsv sill d bsbivib ci sldsiisv insmicsvni -ib ocis ci bits (f) isvoniui\esise isn as bsnflsb ci luqinO .boie lsiiqsD

niisisqO .?boic IsiiqsD boiisq-1o-ninnisd [tWO cli lo sulsv sill d bsbiv -sd smoDni as bsnfIsb ci smoDni isVI (14) th)uc as 1liDsxs bsnfisb ci srriorii

f{DUC as 'cliDsxs benfisb ci xsi emoni IsioT .() emsii xsnibxosiixs sx61 csldsixsv sesriT .rioiisbsxqeb bits smoDni isri lo mice srli ci wofi i{asI) () bnsbivib silT .e±oia lsiiqs bokisq-1o-niirnisd iisrli d bsbivib ocls sis

ciaas b9xII 91dirisi lo boi oi 911i 111 nsdD 9di a in5miBvrII 8co1 ninfiU8' asw io emii1 d b9iioq9l ion Iinupñ ei mii sisb isili us3d IsoiiDslqmi th (')

boia aaot r1i hoqei loti bib emiR iisrrneO rniit c1 bsiioqi 9d oi biiupi ion rfi oi IdsisqmoD sirtsV IsdolO iii mii £isb on ci srIT .(8@I Iiinu ciecas b9xfi Ia

.isicuqmoD ni m9ii sisb iuiibnqx IiiqD

Page 27: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

52

iUJOLm9'çIou OH JJG 9uq qGçYiJ O X CJWUG2O CO1TU4L?2 x jm JJOMGAGL 3G AOJIIWG2 2OWG4iWG2 JCJ 2nc1uç

—- oi.qi&iq us.) bLoiuqG couci suq ccim9 ?GLjA qG2cLb-

9Uq GUrO13 JCCOruçI3 B3UG2 siiq bLICG ffiGLJ7OJT2G2 COLbOLGLobu x uqpooy 000b€L2 p)piuq

1AGM2 GLACG cournq IBED2 Gbo14 uq JIJ 12 tfl-LioqicrJ COIJ1IJJU GAL? UqCUc X J9?A CJJflJG OIJJG O 4JJ€ qGJ !EJOL bnLbo2 cP IBED2 1 W MpJCJJ 12 MGGyJ) bG-pJ24OLJCrJ qGiJ uGcG229L? cOuçLsicç 9 pWG-2GLJG2 O CJJUG2 iU j9M¶flJc 133AG 133G33 113 13T JJTG2 2GLA1CG2 qo uoe III GJJGL9J CO1JU 4}JGXG 13c 1 133GI3 't13 \J21 S13 C13C w14 1 CO1U3L1 '1Jq )(Gso Eiuobc'u iou u• Li xiou o oujbui 111 ni.obEnL0bG 2J9 LT 4}JG bC!UC 9iJ 9iTq JJJG2G LG LGBbGCçAGJ? cnq!OU (IBED) JJG IBE1D bnpJ12p o ill 26bL;G 2GLAICG2 tOL12 JOO2G-JG 2GLAICG O JULIJJOUJ BITLG9IT o1 E!I D0cflmG11-JC9LU1U TpOJT JJG LGjGA9IJ 49X JM JJJG bLJIJJ9L? 2OITLCG OL CITLLGU J9W

112G }JLGG qs'ç9 2OIILCG2 OL COU2LHC13 J3GbuGJ o x bL9'mGçGL2 uq

JX1OU AL!P1G

LG LOUJ VIJG OECD J4çiOIJ9J yCCO1JU42"q 2IIUJUJGL2 (T 'II 0Db qGJ94OL2 uq ruic2çuiu BLICG GOL2C19'pOU 9'jJO!MTIJCG2 12 COU24L11CG LOUJ JJG X bLmGçGL2 O1JOMHJ J1IJGL

uq HITppLq (j j1p bLG2Guç AJJTC O 2WJU2 LOm qGbL-2bcJLJc qcbLccJ9çiou L9G2 9LG couiic;cq rza1u JJC LiJGXJ JIJ QITUJLIJIU&LG 9'qqGq vii ALpJG2 't€ qGJ€q pX TG conuL)2 0Db GJOL J1LUJ—J22HG GXJ2ç2 }JG O GCJJ 12 cjcnjçq IU 4pI2 M'? uq JJ JJG 12211GO-?G9L 2OCfC bLicc Wh1J4thJiGq p?k 2JJ9L62 orrc2uqJu ffiJJGU IJJOLG OUG

cXi2ç2 cpG Gdrnç? o JJG 2913qLq UJIJ1JGL (Guq-2JJoI4-4GLm qp () uq JoU-uu qp (Toe) p/jJGIJ 21UJG 2OCJ !22fl6

U11WGL O UGç1AG op2GLAffpou2 MG qucq O9J qGp 2 JJG 211111 OJucowG (qGuGq poAG) MG C}1002G 9OAG qGIJUi4O13 GC1T2G J1UJç2bon LG i qGuGq 9 L9ç1O O COUJUJOIJ qiAJqGUq2 () ObGLç1U

Page 28: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

2cpqnj ciiij 1! L9U1u LOIIJ }JLGG O UJOLG }J1L AL2 uqJ/Jo2ç 922G2 9'cdrnLGq GL 9L qGbLGcwpJG p?. LGGLGUC O 9 2!X-LG2LTCG O 9 OLW1J GJGCf IOU OL JJG 2F u;poq IJG DB wcpoq i n2q

GIqJGL 2L9ijJ4-J!UG (2r) OL q€cjirnu-pjiJcc (DB) i- pcLU GJGC4 OAGL G2çJW1U IT2GTJ I!t6 bJ"c 9iJ UJ9'CJflUGL? W pC qGbLGC-ijA COIJU1IG2 bnppap L6COWWGUG qGbLGcwJou LG2 MJJJCJJ pc 42xb9'AGL4JJG €iwç pq ou 2ç noL? qGJuI1oIv JJJG 9'rI}JoL-

cç (Mjncp poLc jj it pA JJG f1çpOLiçA) MJicpDGbLC!!0U o i cjciij€q ou ;pc coaç bLicG ffuq JJG 1T2GflJ JJc o

y112cLUJi

CJJ LGJGA91L 9X J9'M Tuq 2OCC 12 A9'Jf1€ 9'4 IJJG JOMGL O CO2 OL JJLJ AJITGJ) flUJG22 ocpcLMJac Uo4Gq 222 W9A pG LGAJITG JIJ COIJtOLWJA M!4JJprcyonuq 1UOLU39IOu 12 bLoAiqcq PGIOM (2cG HLL!2 uq H22GJ4GJçJJGL OUG O JJG2G 2GCçJOU2 O 9X COqG 12 G2iJA 2IT1UJUWLJGq ILl 9jrpjc iu bbGL 2flW9L1G2 qGbLGci9iJoU ¶flJJ IIJAGUçOLA A9'jflJOU LLJJG2

DGbLGccl0U uq JUAGU4OL? jcjnou ici

C9112G 9'LG G22GIJi9'JJA uGoçiçGq GMGGU JJG xb'AGL uq rrrçpoLiAccuq pG GxmGJA combjGx uq u iuuA C2G2 ciiuoç pG 2nww9'LGq p-LG2GL uq qGAGJobuJGu Mjflcp 9'LG uo LGb0LcGq jp 2bGc!rI JucGuçJAG2LGiOIJ2 OL iUqn2çLiG2 oi cJu AbG2 O p1T2IIJG22 1xGq fflAG2UJGU OL OLJUCGUIAG2 JJ COITIJLIG2 ill OfiL 2WbJG JJ9'AG IUAG24UJGU 1UCGU41AG2 OL 2bGCJIC

4iOU2 MPIJG OIJJA GM COulIJ4LiG2 bLOAIqG pLos'q-p'2Gq 2ç9flOL? JUAG2çUJGucpc brbc LGBOLç2 jJG LG2 O iUAG2UJGU 9'X cLGqi2 uq qGqnc-

IUA62cm6 IU1Jc!/

OAGL }TG 2lJJbJG bcLioq ill IJGLA GAGLA COUUIL%

2A2GllJ2 OLbOLçG IUCOWG rx L94G2 ALA MIqGJA 9iJ }JAG 24GTcJflA qGcJIJGq2iUJG L4G COil bjG4GJX 211LIJIJJ9'LJG2 MJqG ALJIOU ILl JJG COLlUIL!G2JJ J5 CJO2G GUOU Wfl2 p biq O pG OOUOç€2 2IUCG 130LG2 1OL GI}JcGGU OECD COfIULiG2 iucf1qiU JJ O JJO2G 113OSIL 2UJbJG LOIJJIPIG J 113 JJG bbGL LGbOLf 2 249'çrrOLA W9LiIJJ COLBOL9'G JUCOUJG

C0Lb0LG JIX ffG2

Page 29: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

FILO uJçpoqe LG ccGbGq pn }JG p€-ocJ w€oq !2 zJocOL WLJCG4 AJ11 MJJJCJJGAGL 12 jOMGL 2 OL uJGçpoq& VC 3I EJEO 'Uq2çOCJC JJJG 9X ITJJOLJA 4JJCLCOLG LGdJTILG2 pG 2OCJ.C pG A9JJTG 9 CO2

IPG coq OG2 uoç courn abGciJ bLoAi2iou2 [01 4JJG A9'J119'ciOU Otuq 2cJGuçJlJc GdnthuiGuç)(VD) 12 9AT1j9pJG OL CG1491U 922G2 p2Gq OIJ qmU124LAG Lf1J!U (G 2JJ1b2

' combu? cu a1çcp o p€ J9GL LuGcpoq cccjscq qGblGcwpouiou couJbnGq p?. bbj?iu DB !2 JOMGL JJ!J 1JT COIJJbf1Gq 9ccoLqiu oCOIJJp!IWf 1011 O[ poçp WG4JJO2 —i JU 9 CGLç9IU ?L 4JJG monu o qGbLGc-UJ9'CJHIJGL? uq GdrnbLucu4 o 01 L0JJ11J 24OC o) DII 12 0b4oIWj 92 !2i24LiAG L1TJ1IJ (G COLIJIJJGLCJgJ prnJqiL12 bGLCGU rnqn2cLJ pnJqI1iiq JJG X 114JJOL1ç?I jçponp OL CGLU 22G2 lJJG L9G2 LG 2ç p?k qmu-coLLGabouqiu LG2 LG UOLUJ9jJ? jxq p? LGGWGU4 GMGG11 JJGDB UJGJJOq2 2F 12 JJG UOLUJJ UJGçJJOq JJ}JG qGbLGcwcou bGLoq2 uq 4GOL bloqncGq 'uq Wfl2 pG bbJJGq GAGL? AGL j,j ji jjoe ouJ?i p uqJJG 922G42 ruq 12 9'JJoMGq 2 o LwucwJ ?i. in Mpicp JJG? MGLG cdrnLcqDGbLGC90U O 922G42 12 cjcnj;q 011 4JJG CO2I bLicG 9'IJq 4JJG fl2GfiJ J!G OJ

F!11-12-°11 (FILo) uq p92G-2oc WGJJO2 LG UOç 9JJoMGq2c'uqLq coeç (cY 2bGCJJJC iqGuçujc1ou (j) uq L2-1n-TJL2-on (JIEo)

LOL AJ1WçJOU O 24OCJ JJG 4X 911;pOLiç2. CCGb2 9AGLG CO2 (vcYbGLcGuç L9G 9iJq AGJ'L2 OL 2LITC11LG2 2nplGCc o

p cp'iuJGq ! 'O AG9L2 OL 24L11C4I1LG2 2Hp1GC4 O 5ij COU2çLITCJOU UJLIJGUG G[OLG yf1JT2c jg j4pc bGLJoq oi Mp!cJJ

COIJ2LJ1Cç1OU C0L1JIJJGIJCGJ G4MGGU VfTfI2 JgS uq GbGmpcL TI3 uqbcGu BGL ?GL J COU2LiTCOU COIJJUJGUCG GL GblGmpGL f !i

922Gç2 m p qGbLGcJGq imuJGqwGJ? LflCflLG2 W pG qGbLGcJçGqxbGr V22G42 MiJJ 911 GJGC!AG I!G 0 jG22 JJU JJLGG ?G912 01 jOM CO24DB LC2 V22G42 W92 G qGbLGCWGq JOMGL L9çG 9ç obfjon O IIJGDII LG2 L9'U1U L0UJ J bGlcGuç j bGLccnr ar 91G /o-çpiLq2 o[

Page 30: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

llJGJJ 12 9JJOMG OU IJJOLG fluJifGq 2CG II LU tiO p€ 9'bbjiGq O 922G2ouj? i JJG fljGLGUCG 12 MJfJJJU 50 bGLcGu oj cII2çowL?. bLcçJcc .LPG DB

L'çG paq OU 9 flGLGU 112GITJ J!G G2ciUJç1OU p1T 4JJJ2 MJJJ p€ 'ccGbcGqiuçp ccGbGq pn2Ju2 bLcpcG JxbGL2 iu ob JoL AL2JIJ qcbLGcJ-qJ4ITLG p? IJJG G241IJJG f12GjTJ-J!G O 4JG 922Gl 9'2 qGfGLmiIJGq ill ¶rccoLq9'ucG'bbJiGq Mi4}JOr1 LG2çLJCçJOIJ JJJG L9'fG2 TLG COLUbJTcGq pA qiqu xbGn-bLoAiqG2 OL OjJGL IJJGfJJO2 LWUJ€JA DR Uq VD ILJ 21' uJcpoq uwX pDCBLGC!0H 12 UOLUJJJA cowbn;&j pA 4JJG 21' IIJIJoq HOMGACL cpG 19A

ELSUCG

cccb'p1G pIT4 L9'LGJA 1126qIPG VC 2I E1IEO uq 2C WGJJO2 LG cou2iqGLGq bIJLObLçG FIEO 2

qGbLGciciou 12 uo jjoiq oi cconupu bnLbo22pG CJJO2GIJ pA 9'xbAGL psi; wA uo; xcGGq o bGLcGu; iii uA AGL JxGdrnbIuGu; DB qGbLGCipOU 12 9'JJoMGq Oil COJJGC1AG p2i2 JJJG LTG UJAJ5 suq JJ qGbLGcJ9pJG p2 qlliacGq 91JU119'JJA OL iUJJçiOIJ LOLcGuc 9uq p1}JGL L9;G o pnijqiu rnçgjjjou2 o g ruq bGLcGuç) pG1GGUbGLcGUç GLG9IJGL ( JOMGL LG !2 9'bbJiGq ;o 2GLAJCG pnijqiiJ2 o 'uq j bcL-

iU2 JJG qGbLGCi';ioIJ L9;G i bGLcGul o cod; qnLJu ;JJG JL2 jo AG'L2 uq 521' qGbLGcJciou OL pJT2JUG22 2LJTC1TLG2 12 bGLwç;Gq LOL IJJO2 AbG2 pnijq-

D6U1LtC

uJçpoq 12 ilOj ccGbçqCiLCnuJ2;ruCG2 JJG ;'x 9'fJfjJOLJ;A M1JJ rccGb; w;poq JJJJG FILO

hGLUJJ22JPJG IUAGIJOLA AJnciou mçjoq IUcJfTqG vc ¶J L1L0 2OUJG

LGAJr19';1OU 12 H0 JoMGq

bGLcGu; w'c}nuGr.A uq GdrnbuiGuç 9iJq 9'fl;02 siiq cou3bn;L2 Owou ;AbG2 o qGbLcci9'pJG ¶T82G2 M1J.T ;p bbjicpjc DB LG2: aILnCITLG2 f(anpiGcc ;p wximriw) IPG OJJOPAJLJ 2G2 0fl 2OUJG O 4JJG UJOLG COUJ-JJOM9'IJCG2 TLG GjGC!AG 4JJG XBAGL ;o cjrnn uA qG2ILGq monu;OIJJA jJ'j JJG UOLI1J9J LG UJA G Oil JJT 922G4 JJJG qGbLGCJ;JOIJcip 2bGcTlJc L';G GIJGL91IA DB pY2i2 AG o cdrn2JpouCT22G2 (2iunJL ;o ;pG mc;poq 112G iii ;p flUiGq aG2) ECP C19'22 12 qGbLG-luG cbi;j c02; 9'1JOMgIJCG 2A2çGuJ Lonb2 qGbLGcwpJG '22G2 iuço AL1OH2

Page 31: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

edT .ie.s lo e2eID nsm o ion eeidi ndt e! i eli! Iuleeu eorIw ed Ii .1 id noi3siDeiqeb J lo esi erL ni1qi1um d bstuqmoD i et&i d bn ie' xi io evil 81 sIll erli Ii d aise inol io eeirLf i eli! hulsen

ci noibrjbeb L6iini n lo rniol er{i iii GA xie ebeeDxs eli! edl Ii InO .(inernqizspe noi3sto1q Linsmnoiivne .e) feeafi nisiie3 iol eIdsIivs

.bsiJirrneq ai noi1&uIvei eaas beiirnil ton ci borhem O1IJ silT .becu lL6zscu 918 eborliem 3A bits O'IH silT

.efrisrneisle I6i3nfIfl beisbiIocno3 iii been neilw lqsDxe beliimieq IIsiens

iedio flusheD bits HU J2 sill sis w.sl d bewolls noilsbeiqsb lo amsle2 ci J2 ol HG moil levodDhiwe A .(ehiib ei.ss sill lo mue eborliem

lee eis cnibIind iol noiisioeiqeb lo asisi edT .seiev eoiv ion md beihimisq isvo) eldsi bebileffimoDel lsiDfflo erli iii checas iedio iol bits wsI sill iii hxco

sm issqxsi edT .ceiihor{ius xsf ciroiisv edh 'cd beueei sis Jsrli (ceidsi 0@

aesnicud io'I .ebnuoi eldsnoc&ei no eecs Lsubivibni ni meril moiTt sbthveb

sis eeisi HG nibnoq2e1ioD silT .bneneq t ci elsi J2 lsunns sill swinihe iol bus eissc seidh niwoLlol sill iol ciss' iiiol leiff erli iol ineDlsq 01 01 lo esisi J2 ceilqqs eldsi Lsiene £ ciecas bexil id1 .eissi 81 ninismsi sill iol 0 eiuiirnul eDiflo iol 01 huemqiups e3ffto iol 0 1enid3sm iol lnsDlsq

griibioDDs beisi3eiqeb Sifi ciecas sill II .aslDirlev ioiom iol 0 bits eishtsqrnoD sldswolLs us rihiw sisi J2 sill esmil seirli oh beiimil ci sisi Istirins sill HG oh

seoul .s) eheces IsiDeqe nishiso iol bewolls ci GA .hrisoisq 06 lo murnixsm Isew svieesoxe d beftuhaicj Ii bits (eishiqaorl sisviiq 10 BSSIS mnsmqolsvsb ru

.bswolts ion ci noiisiiLsvei isecA .issh bns 1soiqi sis 12 bits DA .bswolls ci O'IIJ {0Q1 159' inemececes sill moi'J .ewofi lsoicrlq Isubos ceisrnixoiqqs ii aceirni bewolls ion ci O'1N ;eborlhsm

noilsiosiqeG .aiasd J2 s no beihirrneq ci eleces eldinsJ lo uioiisioeiqeQ iiiodius xsb sill cd berlcildsiee ehriebffieoo sill niIqqs 'cd bsnimisbsb ci

bsrlaildsiae 515 aineioilleoo sesilT .iss' l&)eft icift sill iol Ilsil d beoubei eviiouboiq auoiisv iii issi bits isew Ismion no becsd cieces lo eeiioeiso iol iienidosm iol bits ineoisq T oh 6 moil 'isv eeiuiounie iol esisi) ciobose

oh noiiibhs iii .bswolls ocis ci GA .(insoisq ö oh O moi'i inemqhrps bits

Page 32: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

in3ol3q OO d bse9i3ni 3d sm Jrrnom 5ldibub3b 5f1f noiiLos1q3b Ismion ow niwo1Io1 sdi 10 9110 iii bn b91iupD i ia di rbirlw iii is 5r11 iii

noiiioqoiq ni baroni ed wIs sm noii6i331q3b Imion 13voroM lo iauoms 9r{T .(noiiiiD91qsb 3vin3ini) ofli 10 u 3en3ini iom ol

'm 93r1919111b iii bns noiiiioiqsb Ismion nsrli eI 3d im noiithoLq3b i noiisuIsvi iaa bsiimil InO .eiss Isofi in ipodu vo hissiq 3d .b3iiiml3q

aa1 ion i ii bsbivoiq b3iiiml3q ai noisuIfiv Ioin9vni lo mtv nA .beu ai borii9m O1IJ 3r11 Ii nsñi

UBqSL

noiiqmuaas r!i 110 b3iuqmoo ai is no 31dsio3xqob inuoms 311T

-moo 13v3woH .ieoo noiiiiupos odi lo in3ol3q 01 i oulsv 3Svi6 1i3111 isi:1i 19ea6 i1i lo 911IbV 16ubi51 SI{J hirni noiiio31qeb mtsb m 9inJ3q

liñ3u ioiuii eriT .(eioo noiiithcpo lo 1n3013q @ 01 qu .s.i) inoI3q I moil 5flfi1 13L1T .iiiodiu xsi or{i d b3diIo31q 91S i3a lo 3viI i noiisL33Iq3b I6139q2 .(anihIiird 3DfflO iol) 2U 3 oi (3Ioir13v ioiom iol)

-iblo61ix3 oi 3ub bits isi bits 153W L&miorids ol 139 1du eioaas iol 3IdsILsv e3rriIJbm bits i3as bosnia3b iol 31ds1iSv,s ois ai UA .9onJimucixio isn

-io3lqsb 1fi3'?-IiiiuII .(eqirk bn insmqkup3 noiioeioiq thin9mnolivn3 .3) i38aA .woJIoI nso UA 131{iluI bus iuxeoisq 0 oi 8 moil 9flS1 Jsi noii

.b3woIls ion ai iioiitrLvi .O'IN bits O'IIJ 9A 8iq333s iiior1iu xsi orli boi 10 noisir1sv io'1

noiiiuqmoo rf I iioiib ion brn5 Iin9iinoo b3i!qqs 3d bIuori bor{i9rn 9r{T .noii.sioqioo £ lo 9mooni 9111 lo

2bnS19f19VI 911T

.1011 iø 3Idif1o1q ai risqmoo 3111 191{i3fIW ioa1uqmoo i isas lo noiiio31q9U .noiiiaiupo lo ii 9111 ui b9iio31q5b i1li.r1 3d 1153 iaoo wof s illiw i3E2A

ui 21 m3i2 9(11 sr1i b9bivolq beiiiml3q 9ts noiisioolq3b lo 2m9i2a hA .b9ilqqs 'Iin3i2ianoc) i ii 16(11 bits 23oii3s1q 823nt21Jd bnuo2 rliiw 9Dnb1ooou3

ai snsr1o .6 [19(1w b3woIIs sd ion Iliw m3i2y OI1I lii B91ts1LD isr{i nsem 2i1{T 11113211 3onq 12o3 onoi2irl no b9asd 21 noiisiD3iq3U .soqiuq xsi iol 12uj 9bsm

noiisio3iq9b iol 23nu19bhI [siofflo o4 .i32a6 3111 lo 9111SV 3V1S2 3111 bits 31i1

Page 33: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

9uq rnqJT2çLiG V2G LGA9'JJ1çIOU uoç bGLUJçlGqpciL 2bGci9J VD (oL GAGU tLGG qGbLGcirpou) OL CGLçiU

TOO (! JJG 'P1J J!T. ! AG A69L2 OL WOLG) jjrn X 9ITçpOLipG2 C9IJ

L9G 12 ucLG9'2Gq P 20 bGLcGu ( ;j ncpij ji j jwu iji ?G9'L2) OL pA

oL G9'cp 9'qqJçiou9'J 2pJç flhJGL 4JJG DII uJpoqp€ qGbLGcwGq 9'ç mxrnrnw Lç ucLY'2q pA bGLcGuç

TO combnçGta s' (wiY uq wooL pci j () !'"-WGLCJ9'J 24L11C411LG2 (j) cpiu€iA g () OOj2 rj (T2) OWCG 1TLUIITLGtojjou rn b9'LGuJJ6a): JuqnaLwJ iciu€ bGLcsu ( bGLcGuj) coin-PI EX9'mbIG2 OJ GUGL9'j 11J9'XJIIJIJUJ L9'IG2 ojJoM (MJ4p IJJG UJ1UIJJ1IUJ L9'GDII WGJJO 12 bcLinJGq J{9'G2 tOL qGbLGcw;iou 91G couç9'uGq in ouJcI9'J -uJGcpoq ju CCLIU C9'2G2 (c iuqn2çLwj m9'cpiu€LA 9'uq couJbucL2) cpG212 O pGiL UOLLIJ9'J fl2G1TJ J!TP DGbLGC!9'4!0U m9'A G c9'JcnJcq pA 'DcbLGC!9'!ou 12 9'JJoMGq ou 'jj ;'uipj€ 9'uq iuf9'uipJG xGq 922G2 ou cp p-

LILPG EILO uc;joq UJfl24 pG n€q OL IuAGIJç0LA A9'JIT9'pOIJ9'Uq JoM CO2 9'22G42 uJA G qGbLGcJ9';Gq mwGqJ9'JA9'pOJ!2J36q 92 O J5 V22G2 M!4JJ G21uJ9'çGq IR O JG22 4}J9'U 4JJLGG AG9'L2cJ9lGq iuqJAJqn9'JJA VD OL 2p!b2 9'LCL9'J 911q CGLf9'U 2LJ1CflLG2 92 GGUJIJ CJ9'22G2 J— 9'LG ML!c4GU qou ou ' COIJGC4AG p9'2!2 CJ9'22G2 9'LG qGbLG-

(soY () iuqrrij 2L1TCTLG2 (2) 9'uq () COUJIJJGLCI9'J 24L1TCç1TLG2 (

(soY () LIJOOL AGJJICJG2 (52Y () GdrnbmGuç (soY (2) 2Jnb2 (soY () 9'JLcL9'ç

L9'çc2 OJJOM in b9'LGupG2G2): (j) owc m9'cpiua (o bGLcGu) () ooqwujjL9'4G2 9'JJ0MGq DGBLGC9'PJG 922G42 9'LG qiAiqGq 1UO GJJJ CJ9'2262 (w9'x!Iunm

9' 2UJ9'JJGL UJ1IJJGL O CJ922G2 Jq pA GUGL9'JJA LGqncu 4fTG iuxiwnmucq 2A24Gm o qGbLccJ9çJou pA cJJ9'uJu 4JJG qiM2iou o pIT21IJG22 9'22G2ILP DB uicpoq o qGbLGcJY'pou 12 Iu9'Uq9'oLA JJJG J5 49'X LGOLIJJ p9'2 JuJJfl-

in1124 pG 9'bbJJGq COIJ2I2çGIIçJA

Y'LG 9'JjoEGq (G riic EIEO OL p9'-oc]c wGJJoq2) JJ}JG 2AafGIJJflUqCL JJG 2OflU pfl2iIJG22 bL9'cJcG bLiucjbJ& w9'uA 2A2çGxu2 o JUAGuçOLA

9'uJ}JOLJ4A

GX12 U bL9'Cç1CG WG L9'G2 9'LG 9'LGGq OU GMGGLJ jJG 9'Xb9'AGL ¶ruq 9'X

Page 34: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

EIEO 'J !"!J GF0q ! IjoMGq FILO 12 UOç ¶TCCGbf9'pjuuc1 DB OL 1' mGpoqGdrnbmGuç (M}ncp L6JcJ/J? MIqG wG9uiu) 12 GJiipJG &OL bGLcGuç

21' 1qJoq JJJJGLG TLG UO JJONUCC2 OL COI1JUJLC19J 2Lr1Cç!TLG2 bI'4 ruqpq'cj 2ç.ricn 9LG GJJipJG oL bcu IJIJfl9i qGbLGccIou Oil

flU6 KpqoUJ

pG cbbjiqX 1IJCGJ AG2 qGçGLumJ1u 11JAGIJOLA '1!°' EIEO LuGpoq 2JJOJTJq

mrxpnriw 'mofruf bGLmi€q pI JJ6 JOMGL O CO2 OL IJJ9LJG4 A9Jf1G qJlG 4O

bLJ0L jj 1UAGU4OL1G2 MGLG LGdnGIJcJ?. c9LLJGq u wonu JOMGL2 bGLcGuç BGL XGL 2 LGG p? jjc 9'xbGL iJq }JG TITçpoL1f*qGbLGc1çiou 12 OIJ CO2 9'Uq fl2Gi1j JJG JJJG L9G2 AQ pGçMu j uq

prnJq1u ouj? JJG 21' arpoq 12 bGLwrççGq IT GIJGL'jfT2GITj jiG uo cxcscqJu GTL2 9'uq JOM C02ç 922G2 W pG qGbLGcrGqbLGci'çioIJ mi? G 'Jjoiiq rn u wornJ LG2nJcJu !u 4}JG AJflG V22G42 MlcJJcpu LG2flJJu jLoui poAG-wGupouGq qGbLGcilriou mpoq2 qG-

cu bLoAG JJç LG9'J AJITG O LU9CJJJIJGLA q GdrnbarGu 12 JOMGLIJ2 JJG uuiij qGbLGcipou w p iucLGr2Gq coLLG2bouqiuJ? j 4JJGcirou oi j bGLc6u bGL ?GL Oil 9JJ 922G42 LG2HJ JOMGL poojc MT1G illJG22 4JJG UJO1TIJ LGCGIAGq OL 922G2 2oJq qrTLiu }JG ?GL p'jq 21' qGbLG-O 9jJ 22G2 9 JJG pGJIJIJ1U OJ JJG ?G&L bjn CO2 O 22G42 cdrnLGqilJ9XJflW qGbLGcwiou 9'JJOMIJCG J2 O bGLcGu O pG LGIG pOOJC A9'JITGcp1uG1 uq GdrnbmGuç LG uoun9iJ?. qGbLGcçGq P cJDB LUGçJJoq JJJJG

¶rccGbcGq OL brrtho2G2

9'JJ? bbpGq urGpoq) iiJq EIEO ii FILO uq p9'2G-apOCfC IIJGJJOq2 ¶TLG LJOyccGbGq LGO2 OL iUAGUOL? ,'jnçou LG y (iu bLcçJcc GIJGL-

Page 35: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

32

'ouni o ooss•c n (DGCCWPGL J03): -jjiAG2. o j,ijoqjjiu LGJG2 ujbiLicJ jç njfr uq boJ!c? uJbjicçiou2

CPL!UJO gOpGL Bfl2!UG22 jix€q bGIJqU v c'i 2nL-

boLG D2cL!P1Tc!Ou2 ou o\ coonc j (EGPLL jgj):L.qOLqC D!q J JjJG JuciqcucG 9uq JJOC9iOU GC42 O g JJ9X OU

cP E!B EII9'UCY'J b0J!C? o\ 'cosoinc stcs j (J0c):GbpGJJ J 'IIq C° IF! DUm!C JUAGJJJCU oqj iJq

flUJAGLI GbGIJJpGLDc t° tu'u? pGJIi1UJC 9JJq 41J3G jç ApwGoL9bpe oq°'qC0mbL011 °T. E'!!i JUAGWGU Ed1!OU fliU C0mbU juj

ouqe 24GbpGu pTJJG EJOU 'cdnG LG22GC 9'Uq B'9!c VIJF Vo\ COiC% j jô):

JUAG2IJJGU uq opJu : AJqGucG IjLoW C0IUbU bUGI DcBIITHcJGJIC JC}JLqC cGbpGJJ B°'q II!PJ DGAGLGnX Jq E9'P!° C}flULGJJY

o\ (jg): j-G2lG abGcuJciou JG2f 2 o J-21 IU1cI1I.Tc J,oqGJ2 OtUSt

IJLIJ9IJJ(GC BGU 2 HGUU!U BOPU 911q JG4GL C ffGJ22 VJcGLU9'!AG OIJ-os\sc u'a or (jj): jg-juq jx J{GOLUJ vcc o Tge: v D!LGG A1GM

VJT€LPCI3C ye 9IJ K'' V H922G B'GCGUc fl IUAG2IIJJU4 BGF!OL'ousc icooisc j (2cbcGuJpcL J3):

VHGLPCPC VI 1 JTXJOUe C0Lb0L EIUUC19'I b0J!C 9uq 4JJG CO Oc\ oci o\'ccoso1nc% (ynn j):

VnGLPCPe ju y jjçp Aj'XimJiOU 'uq C° O Cb!JCC &-UO13W x1oLq: p2IJ 11Jgcui€JJe

VJMOLIPC TIJIflJ jJ'3G jiiC IG?4U3GU 'uq 'xiou C11OU oi(cpLrnn J0): -O

IJflIJtC11LJIJ LiLUJ2 4OAS O\ cosoi c'VJOIJ2OBOLLGOe CG2LC uq WflGJ BGUc0J!IT JUAG2IUGU4 9'uq t IU

uq cpj OAGGU2 lu lu 2UJGU (icp j):pGJe IJqLGM B 9IJ OJ!AL ' J9IJcJJLq JJJJC bLG2GU A9JIIG O bL0J42

ff66L6IJC62

Page 36: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

2J01J2 9JJq JJG j{OjG O DGP4 F!''!q uq cjJ EJ0M: AIqGIJCGJGOi JLiO JpiO CJJWUçLGJJI iJq J 'LuJqJO JUAG2IJJGLJ DGC-

'cus\ (J0:J): jj-jC0112L!U2 ¶flJ C0Lb0LG IUAGWGU oo os co&iosseELr GAGII if Wpp'Lq "q BLITC€ C bGGL2G11 EIUIJCTIJ

bL!UCGOU flUJAGL2i?i bLG22 J3cfD!X! vA1119'2JJ K uq JopG14 JJuq?cje 3AGU3GU$

CPc0: flUJAGL2J O CJ'!° bL22 JJmmuc 1313CG 13 WAGU1G13S

uq C2P EJ qG1J p°" ivic bIJGI Ju jç OJGUU H11P-DGLGHX J/JiCJJGJ ruq EP!° CpwuLGJp 4UAG2UJG1J4 JJJIJUCJJ FYCOL2

b11GJ DT 'orc o\c osonc (j,jcp j):JIJAG2UJGU 91J }JG j{OJG O JJ9X V WWG2 E'' LOW

DALGHX IApcpgGJ j y <GGU uq jpJo CJJWU9LGJJF C0Lb0LG Jyx(v'c 1080): 0-W

WIJ j4OJ2G JL9'qGL J{J2J ill J,IUUC9j AjTLJ(Gç2 0\ occDGF011 y uqi.ci }JIG!GLè 9MLGUCG 2flGL2 nJq J{opcLç ffi9Jq-

JUJGU Loork\ os co1so&iiJc c\ (j:): jf2JqGLJOIJ 01 JIJAG24UJGU BGPSA!OL fJ2JU jyx J{GOLUJ2 9'2 J,4cJ1L9j EXbGL

O KGA!U V 9'Uq W CJ" npp9'Lq gGCOIJ-

T08):JIJAG24IJJG1J: MGM ArqGucG LOW E!LIIJJ'GAGJ b9'UGJ Dc

'1°' O uq KG1!1T V H92G IPG EII.GCc2 01 I9X9'pOU OHbLG22

XTIO13 013 fl i33i0U OLbOLiO132 pco: flUiAGL2J 01 CP!°4111 ]YmG2 if H!' Uq W CIGIJIT Hppq Gq2 EUC 01uq9'Lq2 IIJ0LIJJ91I0U Ej0M f1LJJJ JUAG24UJG1J BGPA!0J JU J/J'L-

Cfl111m!U O ILGAOL 2 11LL! nq KG/!IJ V H VCC011IJ41IJ0112 GL2

C00bGL2 p?pisuq jujioug1 px uuu3iu ci joLc: jijcA A9'LJ-JG? A9'L10112 GL2

C00bGL2 p?pLrIJq I13cGLUi0B \)CCOflU13 mi.w GM A0LJC: i'-o cosose Jrc J1s;i\ (T08:J):

CJLIC bGGL W JX JUCGU41AG2 9uq Ed11bWGI IUAG2lWG11 0O&ooyss os (jj:j): -jjCI4 K JUAG2WGU W J80 LPL bGL0LIJHCG uq bL&ll

Page 37: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

:(4f liiqA) Iq nsiIJI moil

riasO 10 eIoH rLt no DnebivP .[9dI3mmiH •q iic bn nomi iidoii) .1O1 [9dm339U tiaivinU *roY wM dqsiomiM n9m9vnI io1 wofi

-H inm3vnI bn iIq x.&T .nonioL .W 51a bris 2 sdo$J jisH .M1-1O :(Ve1 srwL) S1 OSO3 .ioivir1

-iinI !s3ias1DoeT4 A : si3vA bn.& LsniusM nidoT .oimiR irIas'sH :(8f Lslln6T.,) 0 10Oi

.Jn5mivnI lo 'crosdT di lo 9bi eDnsni'i 9oq1o3 .ormn'I irIasH .O8-1 :(81 auuA) \& \o ruok,

bn,& riiwoiD mii'I newi9H noiis!5i1 r1T .uonI uidoT bns oimiR iriasH siU 1nI moil nebiva bn iosifT :abooO 1iiq IqithiM i{iiw

.V-1 :(1QI M) iono mii'I 9ansqL no iol in5mvnI bn no 53n3biv3 .qdasX .>I liriA bru oilT idoH

1 scono ornI ni \o \niso\., .annN 3a911sqsL .001-iS'C :(0@@t 13dm9DU)

thIiqD eioqiotY .ni5fahsrI32 bivU bn.fi q6rIas>I .M linA oL6T idoH 1iiubnI sn&qL moi1 e3nbiva :tn3mievnI bns iibiupiJ iuhuii8

.0-Ct :(11 iuid&I) 01 a ssnono \o nio\, i'i'x .aquoiD BnoitqO &enO niqee)I :ini&fis3nU ibnU inomievnP .nn1D .$I bisdduH

.1C81-8181 :(1e1 isdmsDeU) Cits1 ono o nto\, .nqO rIi bn dhoW eM IrnsinI .qsñasX .X linA bus rrn91O ii bidduH

\o irto\, .91u1uDiiA ..U oJ noiiscilqqA irA :oiq insmevnI :(e1 nuL) 001 n'ono

-iI 1nisnI .bsJidW .M inoT brz qsirIas>l .N IinA nn91D .H bidduH no o \srro\. nmvnI mii'I has 3Dflfl tauuA)

-ai euoii.sv ioqe1 snn1 .noitsinenhIJZoG Lsci'I lo uiuH Isnoiin19JnI .a3U2

oodbnsH sT aseqoiua .noiistnsmu3oU !&i'I lo uiiuH InoiJsniinI .uai auoiiv

oisxiT neqousa oa ebiis .noitsn3mwoU 1&ai'I lo usnifl 1noif&rifnI .t1 eqoiu1 ui asinzqrno b noixT srT 1I mu1o\1

aweVi xT .noiistn3mu3oG ISZBL'I lo uiuH !noiisnionI OU21

iii manI bn a9xsT .noiiin3mhsDo€I Iei'1 lo u691u8 InoisnioinI aehnuoD •Il u1 kiz1 bn

Page 38: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

ni nsmsvnI bns exT .noiistnmuooG Iszi'I lo usrufi IsnoiirnsnI .t@@1 th&n inK .ioivsiisH rx9rnvnI bn iosr1T IJiqY .W 5!U noanioL

:(@J) t sX bn flsmqri9 :nobriod .noisioqio ei1 bn io1 idis1 .A nviM niN

.VT1 jIH moft emonI b noix&T sT .2b3 noii9I1u'I noG bns .A rvM niM

cnobgni)I beiIIU beinU si lo 'bs sviiqmo I &iq oszid9 lo vfiB1vinU :o&Diff

. i&tn sW bns nsbsw

-mA .iftno ba SDlOil ashnno ÜO ni x,T .r13>I iM .C@?I arioiiDiIduq U'IEII :msb15te

aI3boM blO bns w3W .!rbi finsG bn f13udebuH nn5ID nr{q i9niIO \o nisol. .9cnmioh9q nie io'[ lo noiisqmoD A :nmJvnI lo

.nimor1iio1 b3 koit ,nix.T Jn9mqoI5vU bus noiLsl9qooD Dimono31 iol noitsiniO GGO :aiisq .sul noinenI bn 3iemoU monoz do

.1@1 noij&ifduT -n rijiw noi2519iT lo B1LS1IA 3di ui aeuaI Di1mono3P .nsiibA :(I8@f) sS\. mono uon,nX .aio2e1H bs19

siioqioD e9xsT bnbiviU .aimmue .H niwJ bus .M emsT sdifoT .VO1-CI :(t81) mouo sS \o bas fnemasvnI a1 Dimono31 si{T .immu8 .H srieiw&T bns !.M msL

ms'nsmdsidu itisM bns nsmilA .1 biswb uI .noiisxsT bn3biviG lo bmr{oiH :ioniIII boowmoH .sisni1 sioqio ni ns"ib1\ z1 b9

.8@I thwiI .Q sioqio bus mo15I xsT

. isrnmua .H 5Dn51wBJ bus 1s±iM 19mIs2

!niabfI niiisM uI bni noiislumi8 DimonoD9o1iM A :nmievnI -iriU :osoirI .uI\ zok \o o't no \mi? \wo

£8Q1 osir1D 10 viiv bus eJniiJnoD fibiupiJ noiismio1nI 3ithmmvA .yplimsH ieILsrb2

:(1I iuuA) 0 &sunonoz?i\o \&noX, nn .in9rni29vnI nsibsnsD

iioei1T A :InsmivnI 3i&loqlo3 bus noiisxsT .11 n91wsJ 1smmu2 .I-V :(I:I8I) tsK nono no noo .dDso1qqA .viosrIT isinoM oi rbsoiqqA muiidiIiup 1sin A .asrnsL nidoT

.@-I :(OI iind) I mAsu km no \o urwo\.,

Page 39: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

a9tJ$M xsT 9moonI 9tB'loq'IoD IsniuM rnurnixsM xous :1 51dST

01 1001 0001 0801 8801 Y801 0801 801 !801 8801 801 1801 'iinuoD

08. 08. 08. 08. 08. 0k'. 01's. b!. 01. 0I'. 8. 0I'. thisiiauA 08. 08. 11. 81k. 8I. Ci. . 8!. muiIsH 108. 106. 106. 106. 196. 10!. C8!. 88!'. 8. 88!'. C8I. sbsn9 01C. 0t8. 0CC. 106. IVC. 106. 21k. . 0I. 1. . sbsnD 86. 86. 0. 08. 08. 08. 08. 08. Q!. 0t. 0!'. 01k. Aismn9U . c. vc. oc. . oi. o. o. o. o. 08. cif1

918. 018. 08. 08. 08. 88. 88. 88. 88. 08. 88. 88. iismD 0!. 01k. 81. 61. V. 08. 08. 08. 08. 08. 08. 8!. bnsbxI 88. 8Th. !0!. !04. 1'0!. 18t. !01. !0!. 61t. C1t. 886. LsiI '88. 1'88. 8''C. 0. C81. 881k. CCt. $t. "nqEI. 88. 88. 88. 88. $!. . C. C!'. 81k. 8I. 81. bnh9rIi'1 CC. 88. 88. 86. 8. 8F. 81k. 8. 8I. 8!. 8!. 81'. bn1e w& 8. 808. 808. 808. 808. 808. 808. 808. 808. 808. 808. 808. swioi'I 88. 86. 88. 86. 88. 88. 88. 88. 88. 88. 88. CC. nisq2 06. 08. 01'. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 88. 88. 88. tnebw

890. 890. 890. 890. 800. 800. 800. 800. 890. 890. 890. 890. bnsIiiiw 88. 88. C. 88. 86. 88. 88. 01. 0!. 8. $8. $8. !C. !8. 18. 18. 1C. 01k. O4. 81k. 8!. 8!. 81. 01.

.8eI hu1. 11o138I9qo o3m nx m93'(a noi33nqmi 118 lifiju 0.0 lo 3x sif 3 f b9x3 w aiftoiq b udii3ibnU .8e1 b,i1qq p0.0 lo 9361 9113 36 x8311m a3lIoiq 229z)x3

.19v91 La19b9 r{3 i 9ldibub9b io b93.d91 ai ibiifw 3nmznvo L8qbimfm 1o\b118 3ta d b,iv9I x83 ,moni 8xoqIo L8noiithbA Ii1ufa1un8m io1 aodJ , woi if huo zb iii tz zfT .a381 L819n 91(3 918 wol bxitf 3 9113 111 e,ii xf ,moni ,fioq1oD 9dT b

.9mom ni8a9Dolq b118

.eei 1ifzw eser mon 3zrn ni 98 ifloIq b3udh3aib of .0 lo 9361 X83 19ifiIl 6 b9ilqq6 diifw n93(a 9381-iilqe .8E.o lo ,3i i,wol 8 36 b,x83 a3fiozq bfudii3aiG

.amif( 1thu3aeIufl8m no 01.0 lo 9341 wo1 8 38 b,1v91 al x83 9moDm 9i810q1o MIT .9361 wo1 0.0 3 bxi 919W a3aoiq b9Judil3aib eei xii .8891 Ji3mi 9381 19W01 01.0 8 38 11,1(83 919W a3lIoiq b,3udi13iU a

.oeex i b9ffaiJod8 !3n,n81rIl9q a8w m93ae 936I-3iIqe 9381 bthdmo xii ni3h,a,i bniñ noi3i1wp, x83 io bn8 1vL l8qbiIwm 38 b,iv,1 919w 891(63 9mo)ni ,i6loq'loz) I8noi3ibbA

b,zfaiIods w x83 9mom 9381oqloz Lsl9b, ,if 3 $991 vi3na .8'.0 lo 3i I b1 moil Idibx,b,b fort w gbidw C.0 o .'VI.O of b,a,i,zxj aw bnu noiM,il6up, 1(43" ,if 3 11118 I1.0 of biwo1 aw 9381 Ilsqbinum 9113

.89i iii bifaiod aaw 1,v,I 18I,b9i 3a 9Idi33ubsb 88W ibidw I,v,1 I8qi3ilwm 38 b,iv,1 xai ,moDni ,38ioq-IoD L8noi3ibbA b,iv,1 918 i,iI3ona-,no 3e1u88 ,Idtbub,b '(ILai3l8q LLaiq3 918 ibiifw a,x83 ,moznhi 936ioqloo lBqiDlnrtm 1111.6 18nofn.63 L61,b,'I

.b,3loq,i 93611191191 qoT .1631q6) 3wp of 83aolq ,1d8z83 lo noifloqoIg ,if 3 no b9a8d 89361 b936ub8 36 .ae.o moil b9xi4d3 'l9vi3D8o1i91 88W oeer 1O 9381 ,iIT

Page 40: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

'a9viin93nI tn9m9vnI b as.H : eldsT

@O1 1Q01 0001 0801 8801 'V801 801 8Q1 p801 C801 801 1801

o 0 0 0 0 0 0 81. 81. 81. 81. 81. .siLsiauA

o CO. 4O. 0. 0. O. O. O. O. 0. O. O. mui8 o o 0 0 CO. O. TO. TO. TO. TO. TO. TO.

o o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

o o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1. 01.

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 br1191I

o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LsiI

o o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ruqL o o 0 0 0 I. 21. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ebnsh5d'I o o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 bn1ews4 o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 swio'I O. O. O. O. 01. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. niq2 o o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01. 01. 01.

o o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 brJiw o o o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 O 0 0 0 0 0 80. 80. 80. 80. 80. 1.

:eio b9xft ani&,d lo q' nj.hrn ioI •a,iiiubni lo noi1 Dffirnq ioI eviin53ni in9mi9vni vd 9Iqm di ii ii3nzjo HA

.bizoqi ion biilw inMnqo6v,b bn dii ioi 10 ,3n9mi.5vni .noiiDLcb,b £ aw 9viinrnth 4n5m48,vnl

.,vi,ai in,misvni n aw ,viinni di sio1H .noiJDub,b £ aw viinni in,mi&vxiI .sei ifts e3i bDub1 i b9nii,1 ,,w DTI moa bu4 tnoi,i ,abnaO iii .DTI rt w viktzni in iivnI b

.noiiqiie,b •ioI wol9d il liorliooI rnE .,1d!i6v& al aviae&i iirnruia,vni biinii1 A xo1d ;9ii nriolinn ,no oini bnidmoD 19W ai61 iiw wohfiv di 81 nI .('.HIW" bEL8D) OTI n aaw ,vjjnrnnj in9mi2vnI ai81 5viaa,1,b i 1dhav ai noii3ubb ilI9mia,vni n 0I ui ninnia .eiab b,xft iaom 'io 3ui{3 ai b9hoq,z 9381 91(3 iser

.bodz,i aj Iulioi 1o-3rn i1i i,31 b,woLLa ai noiioub,b on ;in,miavni ,Lam LLma 'I,vi39!91 1o 0.0 oi 81.0 moi nini idi ai biioqsi ,iui i13 89i ,loI9d ;biuiiieni ew ai9aa8 bazil ioI ,ii 'ioiui3a n 81 uil .DTI us ai 9vi39Dni in,mia,vnl

.insi in9mia9vnL !siq'3 ,if 3 b9wollS 31 .9Id9ILavn oaLa aw znoiq ,v19ai in9miøvth ,oeei iiinU .rnnwolls 3n9miavixi ifs asw aviin,znii Jn9mia9vnI '

iii ain,mia,vni iuJu1 iol ailloxq xui-iq iiadi o 3nnq O oi qu noi3ith nwo xi9di is bub9b bns ,bias ia 03 .b,liupDs 3eas wn lo noiisb9iq9b 9381b,rnmi io b,au d bluoD ii id3 aw biurl di Io ifbn9d sdT .bnth !.&ibD19iuuoD

Page 41: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

y oj )ci. j wccGJcLcq qcbLcwiou vpoflpcqq O( VG2WI7c AGL raao ru.o'rio ' cbpjc MJIGU nGq iu couRopqGq 1ucw LGboLl1uvr'c'q qcbLcci9ciou abcic LCTOII2 OL !uqIThcL wiig OL CCLW bc o E; LUC AVL) MiqCJ) p) COmJL?

ccGbcGq Lc LGboLIGquxc;poq J16 m;yoq GuLvJJ? ncq WLG LcboLGq M116n flf6 9f1po14;A qoc uoç bccq? bbLobLwçG IIJG;poq JJOG 2GUGLWJJ

;nçoLA qcbLccTv;ion uq u,cucoL 9npou w;poq i.c I.cboL;q 01. MGU cp wnpoL1ç? WflOM u? bbLobuçcquoc pc bccnjc 1qcIzicvciou mcflJoq

c GUøG cp' rwuqwtq co urGroqriio quo;c JJG wcpoqimo qGuoc fIG wG;poqvc qcuo fIG AGLwG co wcqJoq2r fIG L1JJC puG wcfpoqDB quo fIG qcpmu pucc uIGcpoq

flK DIII' 140 A62 VCEIEODBF DB A 14° VCEIEO

cqcu DB 14° EIEO2biu DBI' A 140 VCLIEO14OLM DB DII 140 A62 EILO14GM G9U DII 140 A62 VCEIEO14646LJU2 DIIF DIIF A62 A VCEIEOFIEO

DIIF DII2F A62 140 VJJEOI'IE()IA62 VCEIEOIEO

IL6JUq DB2F 14° A62 VCEIEOGLUJUA DII2F DB A62 14° VCIEO2I

DII DDr A62 pTwJcGq VCEIEOrIEOCDGUILTYLI( DII 14° A62 vC'EIEOrIEO

DII DII 14° 140 VCEIEOIII6IW DBI' DII2F A62 A62 VCEIEOIEOyn2cLJr DB2 14° 14° VCEIEO2C2I

EdnIbw6u LflCf1LG2 yA9iJpJG2 GLI1JTç;Gq (Lx bLb0262)Gj6poq D6bLGc!c0IJ JcGAJnpou jjnou 6poq

C0flIIL D6bLGC!0U CC9GLG 22G IUA6U0L

JJG : D6bLGcoU suq IuAGUOLA jjn ou ffflJG (jj)

Page 42: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

91dsrz6V 91qrrzs Io arzsibsM bnB ru39M :1 sldsT

xo\cl 'A\XO 'A\{ 1v 10.0 880.0 11.0 fl2.0 148.6 611.0 802.0 888.2 @8O.$0l siIsiiuA (682.0 ) (T80.O ) (022.0 ) (812.0 ) (821.2 ) (800.0 ) (821.0 ) (8'C.1 ) (0t1.o81 $820 8''0.0 0V1'.0 8t$.0 8'@.8 81$0 002.0 808.1 110.006 mjiIH (881.0 ) (@80.0 ) (188.0 ) (201.0 ) ([email protected] ) (V81.0 ) (622.0 ) (810.0 ) (80'.18 821.0 280.0 802.0 012.0 10C.8 $i.0 012.0 621.2 10@.$$1 (880.0 ) (0t0.0 ) (881.0 ) (141.0 ) (Ova.! ) (801.0 ) ($11.0 ) (808.0 ) (a2v.$c1 ) 881.0 811.0 1C6.0 112.0 V@8J' 181.0 062.0 881.1 888.80 (141.0 ) ($00.0 ) (@82.0 ) (@01.0 ) (1v1.1 ) (811.0 ) (801.0 ) (0t8.0 ) (v08.01 )

881.0 881.0 @14.0 @$1.0 $88.' 002.0 106.O 008.2 660.018 (811.0 ) (800.0 ) (vfC.0 ) (068.0 ) (08.8 ) (881.0 ) (@82.0 ) (8v1.1 ) (cvo.0$1 612.0 180.0 888.0 882.0 @00.0 !8$.0 1$8.0 @12.2 188.'V88 (8v1.0 ) ($80.0 ) (188.0 ) (8v1.0 ) (080.8 ) (v8$.0 ) (c'c$.O ) (000.0 ) (880.18$ ) 222.0 811.0 1$1.0 128.0 0V$.! $81.0 $T$.0 818.1 011.126 (@v1.0 ) (880.0 ) (102.0 ) (002.0 ) (882.8 ) (!81.0 ) (10$.0 ) (088.0 ) (881.001 )

1'81.0 800.0 106.0 826.0 @81.8 081.0 81$.0 108.8 8$0.1V1$ nqs1 (081.0 ) (080.0 ) ($82.0 ) (062.0 ) (v11.1 ) (811.0 ) (112.0 ) (001.f ) (880.088 ) 222.0 061.0 cV8.0 866.0 V81.0 VOl.0 @82.0 202.1 [email protected] abrIsi19dis ($82.0 ) (o0.o ) (p08.0 ) ($82.0 ) ($N.1') (881.0 ) (@81.0 ) ($08.0 ) (8tV.$01 ) 811.0 @00.0 V'VI.O @01.0 208.6 @81.0 682.0 @V8.1 200.80$ (100.0 ) (800.0 ) ($01.0 ) (1'81.0 ) (000.2 ) (821.0 ) (8V1.0 ) (868.0 ) (10v.$v ) V1$.0 $80.0 18$.0 @22.0 862.8 @11.0 814.0 818.1 0V8.818 nisq (@81.0 ) (@20.0 ) (Vv1.0 ) (014.0 ) (V1V.1 ) (111.0 ) (080.0 ) ([email protected] ) (V88.2$1 ) 181.0 '[email protected] 802.0 288.0 C@8J 821.0 $F$.0 868.0 202.828 n9bwa (181.0 ) (@10.0 ) ($22.0 ) ('V!$.0 ) (C$0J ) (621.0 ) (V'VI.O ) (6V$.0 ) (18$.821 ) O8.0 181.0 8$!s.0 8$1.0 $OV.8 821.0 @1$.0 V80.1 888.$V8 b1inU (142.0 ) (021.0 ) (V16.0 ) (116.0 ) (6@$.F ) (141.0 ) (1V1.0 ) (08V.O ) (282.821 ) mobni)I 021.0 021.0 @88.0 $1'6.0 888.8 fl'l.O 182.0 222.6 1$8.088 b3inIJ (880.0 ) (080.0 ) (V8$.0 ) (@62.0 ) (810J ) (814.0 ) (801.0 ) (881.1 ) (141.8$1 )

.anm ,d wol9d dniq ni anibM .9iai ndDx 1.a-o-bn9 rh njjj e18[Iob ..U o3 b31vnoD i-1o-ba ii3 rrrth di o 91118V hfim I,i if 3 i ziL&V

1 ]bOiB !83iq boiq4o-nijmi,d o3 3n,m3,vni lo oi3i ,dT .noi3bIq9b o 3z ,113 i 9Idiav ,itT i bo3a 1aiiq boh,q-1o-ninnid oi Ia oi3i ,iLT

.)1\%O 8i bo3a 1atiq boiq-Io-niniii,d oi mozni thi.6I9qo lo oi3x sifT i boi L63iq boii,q-Io-nthni,d oi wofi ,fa lo oii ,zfT

.A\31 i bo3a Liq8z boiiq-Io-niimid oi aniir b,nLBi,1 lo oi3x ,dT .IO\üei 3ffloDfli nui.wz9qo boii,q4o-nimii,d oi thix,bivib lo oiix ,dT

Page 43: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

d3BoIqqA bisbun :eiioinupa nemsvnI I9boM bew1bA-xBT : IdsT

YRTI4UOD

J MU 0W2 W{ FIOM an'i vit ATI $JaD AB'I )IIIU 4AD J38 UA

0 0)

o

880.0 (coo.o)

eeo.o

'VOl.0 (910.0)

aix.o

C0.0 (010.0)

ii.o

cto.o (cxo.o)

801.0

8C0.0 ('VoO.o)

980.0

'VlO.O 'V80.0 (oo.0) (no.0)

880.0 'V80.O

£0.0 (800.0)

880.0

'V80.0 (800.0)

'VC1.

1.0 (310.0)

081.0

e0.0 (coo.o)

101.0

8T0.0 (810.0)

'veo.o

£80.0 (800.0)

£90.0 £S

.0 0)

080.0 (Isoo.o)

£11.0 (co.0)

SCO.0 (cr0.0)

eO.o (810.0)

1C0.0 (800.0)

810.0 8'VO,O

(oo.o) (810.0) £C0.0

(800.0) 'V'VO.O

(900.0) C1.0 (o.o)

Et0.0 (too.o)

'V'VO.O

(no.0) 'V80.0

('Voo.o)

.o 0)

£ao.o- (co.o)

BcI.O (a1.o)

lto.O- (881.0)

018.0 (11.1.0)

890.0- (cOb)

£10.0- 080.0- (c1.o.o) (811.0)

880.0- (880.0)

O'Vl.O-

('VO.o) 0'VO.O

(880.0) 880.0

(c.1.o.o)

£00.0 (e'Vo.o)

£81.0- ('rVo.o)

(3.2) I-3,t )

.0 1.11.0 1.1.1.0 181.0 1.81.0 £'VO.O 880.0 8'VO.O £80.0 991.0 081.0 1.11.0 001.0 1.00. R

MMD

.0 .0)

£30.0 (cr0.0)

180.0 ('V1.0.0)

1.1.0.0 (80.0)

980.0 (Ico.o)

980.0 (1.1.0.0)

90.0 180.0 (800.0) (810.0)

890.0 (01.0.0)

880.0 (4'o.o)

1.01.0 (880.0)

11.0.0 (900.0)

C01.0 (1.1.0.0)

080.0 (e10.o)

'V

.0 1.0.1

898.0 81.1

089.0 08'V.O

089.0 C 818.0

1.9.1 'V88.0

1.C.1 'V8.1 109.0 £98.0

IC'V.O 189.0

'V0.O eee.o

ICLO 000.0

8C8.0 8'V0.0

1.Og.0

899.0 C0.0 809.0 ujv-

.0 81.0.0 980.0 81.0.0 eco.o 81.0.0 80.0 080.0 1.01.0 1.V0.0 980,0 1.1.0.0 890.0 tC0.0 .0) (clo.o) (8'vo.o) (evo.o) (cco.o) (rcO.o) (oo.o) (910.0) (1.o.o) (aCo.o) (090.0) (110.0) (11.0.0) (1.10.0)

.0 CCO 810.0 818.0 881..0 8810 6M0 1.80.0 090.0 080.0 1.81.0 810.0 881.0 880.0 (3.2) I-s )

.0) (880.0) (cr1..0) (ca.0) (co.o) (091.0) (1.00.0) (981.0) (1.01.0) (111.0) (081.0) (080.0) (881.0) ('vc.o)

£ 80.1 81.1 888.0 C'V.I 88.1 08.1 88.1 188.0 £8.0 882.0 1.&1 88.1 1.08.0 .0 209.0 188.0 880.0 88'V.O 88'V.O 008.0 008.0 889.0 £00.0 899.0 888.0 C8'V.O C'Ve.O 9uLAv-q

aVI

- .aab aJnV ladolD niw &ioi 0zL63 riosi3uA :iuoE ,ia ealdahaV ei 2boe laJiqsz boiiaq-1o-thzisii,d o3 wofl daa lo oi3ai exIT

. 1_1,'A\1 ai ,Idaiiav inbn9qb dT

noijaI9'noD 3aiasxo3-zija6bLaoz,3,d a moi b93uqmo3 ia ssf1niaq In ai1IjDftboD no aiorx biabizal2 di ni b,nft,b b,bubni ,za .,iminuQ iaY .ix, ,fj jii dinb a (1) noiiaup5 lo noirx,v b3n911Iib a no ba6d ,'ia uoi ,ii i(T .xiiiam

.btioqi 3on lud

Page 44: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

Gd1TçToIr () qccupq I1 rJJG GXrcoccJGu iii i.c combffcq (LOUI pGccLo qciccoxm12;Gu; COLLCJTOII UJLIX JJJG LCLG2TOII LG pGq OIlpmnu&-o-bToq cbç1 ;ocjc i JJIG usnnpGL o w VLG qiq iii pc ccxr uqi.q GI.LOL2 ou2OITLCG: ynqJoL, CJCfffOIJ 1TTII JOp9 AWIJ4C qg JJJG qcb6øq6Ir ALlWJQ l I\y—I JJIGLO o cp oii ro

14 3 33 2, 2 12a JOT 3J 31 31 43 ie

ooe3 0T4 0133 OO3 O03 003 O02. 0335 0043 0384 0028 00.8 0142 00

(oioa) (oioo) (0094) (oi) (0098) (oo.) (oiie) (0043) (or.) (o38a) (o3&a) (oje) (oo32) (oo(c\1(YI oo3 oooe oo oooa oioi oo ooei 03 o3aa o'oe oe -0020 o3 oJi

(o538) (o2e3) (oio) (otea) (o3a5) (o348) (o34T) (oiaw) (o344) (ot9) (J3a.) (o543) (oie) (oooe4 v913 oo O92 0920 0.a oe oia o3ae J3.2 0944 otao c12;

(oo) (ooe2) (0033) (oioe) (oo39) (oo5o) (oo22) (oor) (oa3&) (o3a4) (0120) (0o22) (ooie) (001-0130 oot -oo'* -o1o -ooio oooe oroi -oo3e ooa -O8 -0014 -oe -0139 -00

0098 0531 ooee oON 0090 0091 0094 Oo4 ooiJ oieJ 0002 OO3 0033 00

(0331) (o23o) (o319) (o429) (0529) (o343) (o33) (osia) (o34o) (0238) (i.a) (o341) (o1o8) (oo0902 1939 0810 o291. oe oa 0993 083 W133 133 F482 0941 oei oe

(oo2) (ooeo) (oosa) (oiot) (oose) (ooso) (0o22) (woso) (ooi2) (o312) (o132) (oo25) (ooie) (o0-0113 0022 -0038 -0310 -0012 0008 0J09 -0050 0'080 -o8a 0J03 -0330 -0123 -0C

1898 1880 jg Jaao Jaao 1880 1883 1888 1888 1883 1898 1880 1881 18

)EYW OE jVX J5EEOV

V1T1 Er CV14 DWK EHV 3EW LLV ThL4 14FD 140W b14 2ME fiR 11

CO(IWJJ5A

JpJC : JX-yqfl2Gq j,oqj IDA62W6U EdnucioIJ: vI6L4!A6 ybbLo9cp

Page 45: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

UoLtBHnV xBT no niazJ3o' :I9boM b9aujbA-xsT :' s1dT

YRTI.IUOD

AaU >lU Mq iIOVI UJYI Wit ATI MD AH1 )14CI 14A0 J3H UA

tioia$I XAT qo RA3Y ez reex oeex esei eex eer eei eex oeei oeex oeex a8ex oeer s8ei

MMD

oaa.o 'rco.o)

e8a.o (8'co.o)

ce2.o (081.0)

01.0 (tc.o) (e.o)

CC8.0 880.0 081.0 18'.0 (oLo) (o.o) (ox.o) (ae.o)

88.0 (811.0)

8'V.0 (8o&o)

1.0 ('vx.o) (.o) e8.o

(cx.o)

E_3_3VD) __s,(A\I) ; aVI

OCS 0.1 £8.1 8t.0 08.0 'V.0 1C BC.1 O.0 8.1 08.0 11 C1.0 81.O 01.0 0T.O £08.0 T''8.0 100.0 £00.0 881.0 I8.0 £''0.0 £18.0 8CO.0 £C8.0 ee.o 've.o 91,18V-q

aaci £O1 0 8 a 0E 00 01 £8 8k CI 8 a'v 1

I,boM 5u,385q

sY esY &{ asY sY asY ssY sY asY sY eSY esY sY 85Y bnoDs2 es3n,,,ThO

,Y a,'! as'! a,'! a,'! as'! as'! as'! as'! aeY as'! as'! as'! as'! i,,Y b,xi'l e3DsFfa

.s3b ,3nsV ladolD niau anoih,Laz wioduA :s1uo biibnie .MMD thau bs3nnes sia aisbom ,xfT .3x,3 sd th bsniI,b sia esldsnsV

. ai ,1diisv itxsbnsqsb silT

Th zoieas1s1 silT .xrzMni Ilokiabrro3 Ms zsao3-3L.taabsiaozs,d s mon bs$uqmoz sm asa9mfM,Thq iii aiasbffiso no S1OTIS .ixs ,ilt ii bsdjizasb 86 (1) noilaups o noiaisv b nsis b-SDiwi s no bsasd

Page 46: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

20W6 L1011' IJIJGL O(U1J LbOL;Gq m iJG e qnc o !ucp!ou o cp OM iii 9ccI.uwilc iuoqcj bGcqcçToIroccnLLGq iaa Y 1}IG uq oj qJ€ 2S11,bJG bzioq) jpc IIIJWpGL 0J LW LOW MJJJCJJ WLG ccITJwçGq q1GL2 711cpcL6(OLW pc AGgL O( pc LtOLU1 (Mp cxccbçou o i;i 'uq WoLMv) 117 Mjflcp LGtOLUJ2jpc LWIO O TuIc;wcu; 0 p1IJ1flfl-O-bGL1Oq cWb!J OCJC i \!j fiG LG11JC!OIJ LG (OL bGuoq ; — j o201ThCG: TJIOLB CWJC0J17101J2 fl11i ajopvi qv

i\v. 5 o•012 5 i\x<. < 032002 5 i\x& < 0121\K> 002

iiV iaai-

Dçjjj,gj 1898-81

bvu iag-ao

ELv1 i a-ai

0000 O•130 0130 O3oo4o osio 0200 03e00•082 0439 0180 03820320 0?2 0000 03.2

Gc}JGLJ11I7q 1892-80

OLm111J) 1828-81

VL9T1 T89-88 B9!UW 1828-81 Jaa-88

012 032002 i\i& < i\i'. < 032

I\R < 002 5 012 5 iW. 5

012 032002 i\v. < x\'k <

iW. < 002> 012>012 032

032 002 i\v. < iW. < 032iW. 5 x\v. < 002> 012 5 iW. 5

jpjs jLIJ2141OU yioiuq JIUX ff6OL A6L

0011003101000314

00830109o'teo

- 0143

03430312oseo022

0022022401200322

i\v5 032012> 1\K < 032002> iW. < 012x\v.> 002

0J3.033301210000

032303330330100

018001920•191oo

021303..003930•083

00330•0180100084

0•O.00084O't'fSoio

03L0423O3Joie

oe3043301820029

00030•13300930400

0120032302930300

03130400O•199oioo

049201330109o000

x\i5 032012> iW. < 032002> iW. < 012iW.> 002

0083010000420382

011101200•1210180

014804000330180

09480320W2000333

003300300430500

0131013203380304

0300038803130000

0282044403040434

00820000oiee0300

0'0820300oIee0300

0180040003330100

0018040003330400

x\%( 5 W32012> iW. < 052002 5 iW. < 0J2I\i(> 002

0032022401000J4

0J430330030000J

03200330030000J

O21012304000143

0•028003903330100

00830340030233

0333oe05530100

0010osea030333

0030ooes00990.

0042014204110111

03310300•I.e0000

003W23003330111

iW.5 032012> i\g < 052002 5 i\i& <012x\x > 002

0132002300220200

00e5031004110100

0J32031003320300

0'02.023003840300

0031000000800320

00230143oeae0200

01280322o1210000

030021ooao0320

0008003300340438

00240103O2J0•143

01820'330L3.3O0U

02204410320'32

i\i 5 032012 5 I\1( < 052002 5 x\R < oi\v> 002

0103000003220222

0J30401O32.0•333

0244039401430000

0380123o3140111

0034002000930000

0000030003200000

0331012003330000

0023000003331000

0030W038oxr0400

004401402420200

0100044101300300

0323oe0000

i\v 5 052012 5 i\v < 032002 5 i\v < 012i\v> 002

05080J0001330441

0308030005000302

030803000333010

033030003330•1e

000003300000333

000003301000000

0303008003330000

030030302000000

0132032203140433

0132030303U0340

0300o•18e01000039

02200'52203140183

i\. 5 0320J2 5 i\x& < os002 5 i\y <012i\v.> 002

0100033203000212

0T33032301330121

03330J103330000

040e038403000343

0000000001320152

0022030003.20132

032004000152032

00000400032032

008J013305410440

0303040003000320

05430300

0090

04&303000340300

x\i 5 032012 5 iW. < 0320o2 5 I\1( < oiI\i(> 002

osoe051003330421

0i.3031203330380

0102012,03000004

021031201330183

00e8033304000320

013.033304000520

0002011100000200

0&34053303000000

0004014303340403

012303203800540

0343034301300111

023803203280182

Page 47: c'p'q NV on - NBER...4OL C wqA 01 WG ECOUOIIJA uq 2WC 1 IIJC fl1Y2! O CP!CO uq 1LOW 11JG cqcL9J flu AcL2iIA H'ppq i.rqcij0L anbboi. 1LOW opu ir ovu OffUfQU LflU o w' CCUL uq 1OP1J

201116 c6262 GLOW JG I7J11ilGL O U1J2 LGboI3GqIII Pi e i° JI !11cJ1Th!o o C62J1 0M 111 qIG J 6L1171A6 woqcj 9bGciMci01Joccm.L€q 111 pc uq o vixjb1 bcLioq) JJ1G umIJpGL Ot U1w2 LLOW ;pc Lvu2!c!ou Y'LG C2JCJTJGq 14GL2 1171116 L6LOL11i flJ€ ?69L O fIG LG(OU17 uq fIG ?GYL Ofl0M!IJ9 fIG LGOLU1 (MIfI IJIG GXCGbfOU2 O J1vJ? uq 4OLMA 111 M}J!CJJ L9OLUJaJJJG L9O O 1uAG2mGU io pcrnmu-o4-bGLIoq c9b1191 12 i\y jpc 61.6 LOL bcuoq 4—j LOL fIG ?G9L BLI0L CO

'flf7OL2 C6JC 6110112 1121112 cjopi xiv2 qwç

i\v> 032 0123 0332 05O 0434 0•03 0133 0190 oeia012 5 i\v. < 032 0101 0338 0312 0324 0083 0332 033P 0344002 5 iVy. <012 0150 o40e O5.2 0102 0300 0432 0193 0189i\K> 002 0231 05 0118 0091 043 0332 0'103 0'130

iVy.> 052 0304 0189 0302 0501 002 014@ 0188 0•2.Q012 5 I\y. <052 0349 03O 0101 0181 0110 0343 0322 03.0002 5 iVy. <012 0340 0340 0141 0102 0332 0380 0121 0188i\K> 002 0292 0303 0028 0121 0450 O31e 0139 0122

i\v.> 052 0322 0510 0109 0230 ooao 0•13 01e8 028..0'12 5 x\v. <032 W3&2 0388 012 034& 0110 ty332 0322 0100002 5 iV <012 oo osao oieo 0190 crso 032't 05e3 O•1..41\R> 002 0483 0180 oo.a 0322 0490 ose. 0110 o•iei

flU1CG II2qonJ 1080-83 flucq ac; 1a82-9.

i\i(> 032012 5 i\i& <032002 5 i\v. < 0J2x\v> 002

ooe ooe ooe o.ea0'OOO 0320 0212 03.20123 03O.1 030 03300012 0330 0000 0123

0331 0331 0J01 03200322 03. 0111 0533033 03.3 0080 03e30200 0333 cUll oiee

1\1(> 052 0514 0514 0322 0392 0330 0394 ooe 030,012 5 iVy. < 052 0520 0520 0152 02.2 0000 0300 0000 0500002 5 i\i& < 012 0242 o3e3 0000 0000 0111 0333 0333 0333iVy. > 002 0200 0000 0000 0200 0041 0000 0000 0029

iVy.> 032 0080 0121 0'OOO 0030 0000 0000 0400 0000WI? 5 iVy. < 032 (1000 0320 0200 (1320 (1320 0320 0200 (1000002 5 iW < 012 (1000 0200 03.2 (1152 (1000 (1441 (1111 (1441i\y> 002 0323 0333 (1083 0520 0023 0fl2 0000 013

0132 (1152 (1320 02000514 (1382 (1522 (13140•3.3 018J 053 0•5.3(1438 00.U (1382 (1311

0111 (1184 0104 (1200(1029 0029 0532 041.0300 (1320 (1120 (11000500 0100 0300 0100

L40LM 1801-05 9b9m ia-ao 9MGqGII 1028-81

(112 052 012 (132 012 032002 I\y. < i\v. < (152 002 i\x. < x\v. < (132 (102 iVy. < i\ < 032

iW. < 002> (112 5 i\v. 5 iW. < (102 5 (112 5 iVy. 5 iVy. < 002> 012 5 IVy. 5

(couçrna€q): JUA62W6IJ jou yosrnq jpx }6OLffl A6ø