Convergence: Smart Phones

Johannes KleinArchitect

Mobile and Embedded Devices Product GroupMicrosoft Corporation

2HPTS 2005

Agenda

• Market Overview• Technology Trends• Grand Challenges• Push E-Mail

3HPTS 2005

Other, 206

Cable/DSL, 85

Automotive, 80

DSC, 41

DVD, 41

Printers, 40

DTV, 38

Set Top Box, 26

PVR, 18

POS, 12

Thin Clients, 11

Digital Cam, 11

IP Phones, 8

WLAN Access, 5

Res Gateway, 4

Compressed Audio, 207

Embedded and Mobile Device Market

(1.4 Billion Units)(1.4 Billion Units)

*Filtered by 32-bit MMU CPU

Source: IDC – 2003, Morgan Stanley – 2002, Microsoft Analysis

PhonesPhones494mm 494mm

PDA, PDA, 79mm79mm

x3x3

x2x2

1313

2828

4545

100100

6363

44

2002 2003 2004 20062005 2007 2008

8080

4HPTS 2005

Market Growth in Connected Devices

20012001 20022002 20032003 20042004 20052005 20062006 2007200700

4040

6060

8080

100100

120120

2020

103M data-centric 103M data-centric devices will be devices will be shipped by 2007shipped by 2007

36M PDA and PDA 36M PDA and PDA phones will be sold phones will be sold in 2007in 2007

Smart Devices taking offSmart Devices taking off

12.112.1 13.413.4 12.112.1 13.413.4 15.715.7 18.318.3 20.220.2

1.21.2 1.8 1.8 4.4 4.4 7.47.4 10.910.9 13.613.6 16.316.3

1.91.9 4.0 4.0 11.011.0 19.019.0 31.831.8 47.847.8 66.966.9

PDAPDA

PDA PhonesPDA Phones

Smart PhonesSmart Phones

Worldwide Mobile Device Shipments (Gartner based)Worldwide Mobile Device Shipments (Gartner based)

Source: Gartner, Microsoft EstimatesSource: Gartner, Microsoft Estimates

5HPTS 2005

Yesterday’s Hardware

• First generation smartphone prototypes were considerably larger and heavier than “less smart” devices

• Battery life was 12 hours• Cost was prohibitive• Chipset integration was non-existent• 8 Mbytes flash, 4Mbytes RAM• 9600 bps circuit switched data

connection

Prototype Smartphone device demonstrated by Bill Gates at

Telecom 99 in Geneva. 189 cc volume

6HPTS 2005

Today’s Hardware

• No size premium over regular cellphone• Modest cost premium over regular cellphone• >200 hours battery life• Integrated camera• Built on specialized chipsets • 64M flash, 32M SDRAM• Packet data connections 30-50kbps

Orange C500<85 cc volume

7HPTS 2005

8HPTS 2005

Hardware By 2010

• Devices of the future will support many wireless standards throughout the world– 2.5G, 3G, WLAN, BT, aGPS, DVB-H– Location awareness will become pervasive– Television on the device will become a mainstream app

• Falling memory costs will fuel increasing storage on the device– 128MB - 256MB will be common in 2007– 1” Hard drives will provide 20+GB for demanding users

• Silicon integration will continue at rapid pace– Devices will keep shrinking– 2.5 GHz core CPUs– System wide power < 1mW / MHz– Battery life improving 15-20% annually by enabling larger cell sizes

• Increasing processing power and HW architecture improvements will permit:– Real time video encode with camcorder quality– Improved camera quality 3 MPixel + optics, dedicated cameras are niche– 8+ hours of TV viewing on the device– Gaming performance > 10M polygons/sec (Xbox is currently ~60M)– Video playback approaching HD quality

9HPTS 2005

Digital Content Trends

• Video today is where audio was five years ago– In 1999, 12.8 percent of U.S. Internet users reported having at least one

MP3 file on their computer– In 2004, 13 percent of U.S. Internet households report having at least one

video file on their PC that is more than 150 MB

• Digital photos adoption rates are exploding– In 2003, 118.5 million digital images were captured, shared, and received

(prior to the emergence of camera phones).– 41% of digital photo enthusiasts have more than 1,000 photos stored in

the “My Pictures” folder on their PC

• Capturing television content on the PC is on the rise– 25% of US HH will own a DVR in 2007– 51% of online users are interested in recording PC-based television shows

for later playback

• Mobile phones are impacting these trends– Mobile phone users will download nearly 49 million games in 2004.– 53% of mobile users want the ability to take pictures.– 25% of PDA users are interested in à la carte music downloads to their

PDA.– 45% of mobile phone users want the ability to view videos on their device

10HPTS 2005

Networking Conclusions

• Multiple radios are already a fact of life• 3G is moving to mainstream globally• Relative to 3G, WiMax, Wi-Fi, and UWB are

complementary technologies• Increasing momentum around VoIP in both

– consumer and enterprise– P2P and SIP

• Seamless roaming across network types and QoS are key enablers

11HPTS 2005

WiMaxWiMax

Wireless Network Technologies

Throughpu

Throughpu

tt

RangRangee

10m10m 100m100m 10km10km

500kbs

500kbs

11mbps

11mbps

100m

bps100

mbps

500m

bps500

mbps

50kbs50kbs

3G3G

BTBT

NFCNFC

HSDPAHSDPA

ZigbeeZigbee

WiFiWiFi

UWBUWB

12HPTS 2005

Voice + DataVoice + Data

PIM+ PIM+

3G+3G+

All-All-IP NetworkIP Network

PCPC33PCPC

Changing Landscape of Mobile Industry

VoiceVoice

SIMSIM

Circuit-Circuit-SwitchedSwitched

Convergence of Mobile, Convergence of Mobile, Internet and PCInternet and PC

2G/2.5G2G/2.5G

13HPTS 2005

Convergence

ControlControlCommunicationCommunication

Voice CallingVoice Calling

EmailEmail

MessagingMessaging

ComputingComputing

VoIPVoIP

SDRSDR

Connection ManagementConnection Management

AuthenticationAuthentication

4G Roadmap4G Roadmap Wi-FiWi-Fi

UWBUWB MicropaymentMicropayment

Remote ControlRemote Control

P2PP2P

AuthorizationAuthorization

ServicesServices

LBSLBS

EntertainmentEntertainment

NET CFv2NET CFv2

ManagementManagement

Interchange of Interchange of thoughts, opinions or thoughts, opinions or data, synchronously or data, synchronously or asynchronously, by any asynchronously, by any available meansavailable means

The procedure of The procedure of calculating; determining calculating; determining something by something by mathematical or logical mathematical or logical methodsmethods

To handle and cause to To handle and cause to functionfunction

14HPTS 2005

Grand Challenges

Device constraints• Battery power

• Footprint

• Cost sensitivity

• Display size

• Limited input

• Multiple radios

• Divergent infrastructure

• Communication– Seamless network to network roaming– Adaptive intelligent connectivity

• Computing– Rich integrated services

• Search via location, context, profiles

– User Experiences

• Control– Identity– Management– Enterprise Access– Controller access (locally or remotely)– …

InnovationInnovation

15HPTS 2005

Case Study: Push E-Mail

•Wireless WAN – Enterprise Connectivity

•Enterprise IT – Management and Security

16HPTS 2005

RIM Architecture

17HPTS 2005

Integrated Mobile Devices

DMZIntranet

Internet

IP over GPRS/ CDMA

Mobile Operator

Exchange FE

Management

LCS

(

LOB

AD

SMS

SUS

18HPTS 2005

Information-Driven Software

Rich Interface and Experiences

Connected Systems

Summary

Smart Devices

• PenPen• SPOTSPOT• SmartphonesSmartphones• PDAsPDAs• TabletsTablets• Portable mediaPortable media

New Wireless Communication Infrastructure

• 2G/2.5G/3G2G/2.5G/3G• UWBUWB• WiFiWiFi• WiMAXWiMAX• SDRSDR

Emerging Applications

• OfficeOffice• LOBLOB• MediaMedia• GamingGaming• Messaging Messaging • VoIP, P2TVoIP, P2T• LocationLocation

19HPTS 2005

Example Projects

GamesGames

TVTV

Auto PCAuto PC

VideoVideoConferencingConferencing

HiFi AudioHiFi Audio

Cell PhoneCell Phone

Digital Video Digital Video CameraCamera

WebWebPadsPads

Phone &Phone &VoicemailVoicemail

InternetInternet

PocketPocket PCsPCs

Security Security

Public UMTSNetworks

Public GPRS

Networks

Home

Office

IP Backbone

WLAN

WLAN & UWB

multiple network islandsmultiple network islands

WLAN & WiMAX

Internet

Gas Station

Bus Stop

Mesh Router 2

End Device(Guest to Router 1)

Mesh Router 1

Mesh End Device

EXIT

Mesh Zone

Mesh Router 3

(Internet TAP)

Mesh Router 5

Mesh Router 7

90

101

206

Wireless Home ProFITS: Seamless Roaming

ShareNETS: CCN for multi-radio networks Wireless Community Mesh

Firewall

Internet

Extension

Intra-radio Enhancement

Inter-radio Enhancement

20HPTS 2005

Services and Applications for Mobile Users

• Seamless media– Scalable media compression and transmission– Smart media sync– Seamless media delivery– Video/TV over pocketPC/smartphone

• Collaboration– VoIP and Push-to-talk over free radio– Multiparty conferencing– Peer-to-peer/ad hoc communication

• New applications over mobile devices– Mobile search and browsing– Mobile transportation assistant

• Entertainment for mobile devices– Mobile gaming, cartoon

21HPTS 2005

Example Projects

Mobile Browsing and Search

Media SPA: Smart Media Sync

Multiparty Conferencing

SmartPhlow: Transport Assistant

Seamless Media Delivery

22HPTS 2005

Agenda

• Market Overview• Technology Trends• Grand Challenges• Push E-Mail