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Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong ROUND THREE HONG KONG TRANSITION PROJECT June 2013

Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

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Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong . ROUND THREE. HONG KONG TRANSITION PROJECT June 2013. Survey Objectives:. Establish baselines before next round on: Views on current governance system Public opinion on reform options - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

ROUND THREE

HONG KONG TRANSITION PROJECT June 2013

Page 2: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

Survey Objectives:

• Establish baselines before next round on:– Views on current governance system– Public opinion on reform options– Views by party, identity, interests (occupation,

ownership) and demographics (age, sex, education, income, etc)

Part of Hong Kong Transition Project’s long term study of public policy and political development since 1982

Page 3: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

January 2013

• 920 permanent residents randomly contacted by telephone – +/- 3 points range of error at 95% confidence interval

• Research conducted by Hong Kong Transition Project, supported by a grant from the Community Development Initiative

Page 4: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

3 FUNDAMENTAL SHIFTS→ from circumstances of Rounds 1 (2005) & 2 (2010)

• Inter-generational Transfer Shift (1)– From Old > Young: Education/Healthcare– To Young> Old: Retirement/Geriatric care

• Identity Shift (2) as part of Generational Shift (3)– From Hong Kong person > Chinese/Chinese Hong Konger– From Chinese = Patriotic Communist > Chinese =

National/Cultural Patriot• 1st Gen since 1841 to grow up in Hong Kong, China—

with no effective memory of foreign rule

Page 5: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

Generational Shift →• 1 July 2013 marks 16 years from 1997 handover• 1 July 2014 (Occupy Central deadline for “genuine

democracy” reforms) = 17 years• 2017 Chief Executive election = 20 years• Few under age 30 remember pre-1997

circumstances as lived experience. It is “history” to them.

• Lived experience of this generation is: Bearing burden of the past, not enjoying its legacy nor believing in steady progress because they have seen it happen

Page 6: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

SOURCE: Carine Lai, Louisa Mitchell, Michael DeGolyer, The Changing Faces of Hong Kong: “A Graphical Summary

of Women’s Status, 1991-2011” (Feb 2013) The

Women’s Foundation/Civic Exchange

http://www.civic-exchange.org/wp/201302gender_en/

p.17

By 2031, % of population over 60 will rise from 13%

in 2011 to 26%+

Page 7: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

Low birthrate, high aging rate crisis• Shifting burden of care is burdening families in new ways• New forms of stress/unequal forms of stress on families,

caregivers and rising generation. No parents = no stress. No children = not enough help. High stress on fewer children.

• “Family friendly” policy does not recognize “family” is no longer parents with children; it is children with parents

• Intervening variable on satisfaction and fairness of policy making questions

Page 8: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

Average Adjusted income for Ages 20-29, Census and By-census (1991, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2011)

Page 9: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

Approximately what percentage of your personal income do you contribute to your

parents?

BY Generation

Page 10: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

Personal income to parents by Monthly Family Income

Page 11: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

Effect of SHIFTS on IDENTITY

Page 12: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

First Post-1997/Post-1841 Generation

< 30 year olds were <13 in 1997. Too young to understand colonial Hong Kong.First time over 60s and under 30s equal in a survey

Page 13: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

National Education Effect?“How would you describe yourself” by

Occupation

No student chose

“Chinese” ID

Page 14: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

Changes in identity

Page 15: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

Birthplace

Hong Kong for Hong Kong born, but means something different now

Page 16: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

ID by Generation

Page 17: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

Which of these do you consider the most important to you personally to

see protected and promoted?

Page 18: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

Most important to promote & protect BY Generation

Page 19: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

How does the celebration of 1st October National Day make you feel?

Page 20: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

National Day feelings BY ID

Page 21: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

Effect of SHIFTS on Political ID

Page 22: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

Which parties protect/represent best by Age

60:40 pro-democracy/pro-establishment split among voters NOW is not sustained among teenagers

Page 23: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

For the Establishment

• Demographics are running against the establishment parties

• Stalling reform does not improve their position

• Youth are stressed and highly volatile• Demographics and economics are raising that

stress and volatility UNLESS action is taken to address its sources

Page 24: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

Satisfaction with performance of CY Leung by Generational group

Page 25: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

How much do you believe CY Leung has:

Page 26: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

How much do you believe Leung has: Protected HK’s interest in national matters BY Generation

Page 27: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

How much do you believe Leung: Will implement a fair system of nomination and direct election for CE in 2017 BY Generation

Page 28: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

How much do you trust Chief Executive Leung to handle relations with:

Page 29: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

How much do you trust CE Leung to handle relations with: People like yourself BY Generation

Page 30: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

How much do you trust CE Leung to handle relations with: People like yourself BY

Parental support paid

Page 31: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

Are you currently worried or not about these specific aspects affecting you, your family or

Hong Kong? (Jan 2013)

Page 32: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

In your view, what is the most urgent issue that should be addressed by the Chief Executive?

Page 33: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

Effect of Shifts on Reform

Page 34: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

System Reform . . .

• Is more than economics and elections• Political-Economic reform must achieve: – Effective shareholder input, – More widely owned decisions, – Efficient implementation of decisions, – followed by scientific evaluation and

independent monitoring, – subject to review and public feedback

Page 35: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

Reform Principles & Options

• For more effective input• Legitimating outcomes• Effectuating implementation• Monitoring governance

Page 36: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

Support/oppose directly electing the Chief Executive (Trend chart)

Page 37: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

Support/Oppose direct election of all Legco seats (10 Year Trend)

Page 38: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

Summary Table of Recoded support or opposition on reform options

Page 39: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

Would you support/oppose: Keep the CE Election Committee at 1200 members as

present and make it the nominating committee for candidates for direct elections in 2017?

Page 40: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

Would you support/oppose: Reform FCs by eliminating corporate voting and equalizing, as much as possible, the number of voters in

each constituency?

Page 41: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

Would you support/oppose: Abolish FCs for Legco but keep them for the CE Nominating

Committee

Page 42: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

Would you support/oppose the following: Abolish FCs completely in all forms?

Page 43: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

Do you currently support or oppose: Abolishing all FCs, both traditional and new DC FC seats

Page 44: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

Do you currently support or oppose: Abolishing only the traditional small circle 30 FC seats

Page 45: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

Do you currently support/oppose: Replacing the 30 small circle FC seats with 30 more seats

elected by everyone like the 5 new DC seats

Page 46: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

Do you currently support/oppose: Abolishing the split voting system in Legco which requires majority

votes in both the FCs and GCs for a bill or amendment to pass

Page 47: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

If all FC seats are directly geographic elected, would you support or oppose: A minimum

required percentage of votes to get a seat, of say, 10%, like in Germany?

Page 48: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

Would you support/oppose: CE candidates be allowed to be members of a party?

Page 49: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

Which party represents best by Support/oppose CE candidates allowed to be

members of a party NO DIFFERENCE BY PARTY

Page 50: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

Which party represents best by How much do you believe CY Leung: Will implement a fair system of

nomination and direct election for CE in 2017

Page 51: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

Which party represents best by Support direct election of Chief Executive

Page 52: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

Which party represents best by Support direct election all Legco members

Page 53: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

Which party represents best by Abolish FCs completely in all forms

Page 54: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

Which party represents best by Abolish FCs for Legco, but keep for CE election

Page 55: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

Which party represents best by Keep present 1200 member CE Election Committee as Nominating

Committee, no change

Page 56: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

Which party represents best by Do you think gov makes policies fairly

Page 57: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

Fairness in policy making BY Generation

Page 58: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

Fairness of policy making BY Work Sector

Page 59: Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong

Research conducted by the Hong Kong Transition Project

Details of methods and earlier reports available at: http://www.hktp.org

Hong Kong Transition Project Research since 1988 has been funded by RGC grants, grants from National Democratic Institute for

International Affairs, Civic Exchange, The Women’s Foundation and many other local and international NGOs, and Community

Development Foundation

The Hong Kong Transition Project is a non-partisan, multi-disciplinary, multi-national academic research

project committed to good governance and the highest standard public policy research