CONSTITUTION AND REFORM EDUCATION CONSORTIUM CRECO · 6 BASELINE REPORT ON CONFLICT-MAPPING AND PROFILES OF 47 COUNTIES IN KENYA BUILDING A CULTURE OF PEACE IN KENYA TABLE OF ABBREVIATIONS

BUILDING A CULTURE OF PEACE IN KENYA

BASELINE REPORT ON

CONFLICT-MAPPING AND PROFILES OF 47 COUNTIES IN KENYA

CONSTITUTION AND REFORM EDUCATION CONSORTIUM

CRECO

ISBN: 978-9966-21-158-3

CONSTITUTION & REFORM EDUCATION CONSORTIUM (CRECO)

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BASELINE REPORT ON CONFLICT-MAPPING AND PROFILES OF 47 COUNTIES IN KENYA 3

CONTENTS PAGEACKNOWLEDGEMENTS.......................................................................................................................5

TABLE OF ABBREVIATIONS / ACRONYMS...........................................................................................6

ABOUT CRECO......................................................................................................................................7

ABOUT ELOG........................................................................................................................................8

FOREWORD..........................................................................................................................................9

THE REPORT.......................................................................................................................................10

CONFLICT MAPPING BASELINE ASSESSMENT.................................................................................11

CONFLICT RATING ON COUNTIES......................................................................................................13

CHAPTER ONE....................................................................................................................................14

STUDYBACKGROUND.......................................................................................................................14

THEBASELINESTUDY........................................................................................................................15

CONCEPTUALFRAMEWORK.............................................................................................................16

CHAPTER TWO...................................................................................................................................18

NEWCONSTITUTIONANDREFORMS..............................................................................................18

SECURITYSECTORREFORMS............................................................................................................19

POLICEREFORMSANDINSTITUTIONS.............................................................................................20

CHAPTER THREE..................................................................................................................................21

STUDYFINDINGS...............................................................................................................................21

MOMBASACOUNTY.........................................................................................................................21

KWALECOUNTY.................................................................................................................................22

KILIFICOUNTY...................................................................................................................................24

TANARIVERCOUNTY........................................................................................................................25

LAMUCOUNTY.................................................................................................................................26

TAITATAVETA...................................................................................................................................28

GARISSACOUNTY.............................................................................................................................30

WAJIRCOUNTY.................................................................................................................................32

MANDERACOUNTY..........................................................................................................................34

MARSABITCOUNTY...........................................................................................................................36

ISIOLOCOUNTY................................................................................................................................38

MERUCOUNTY.................................................................................................................................40

THARAKA-NITHICOUNTY.................................................................................................................41

EMBUCOUNTY.................................................................................................................................43

KITUICOUNTY..................................................................................................................................44

MACHAKOSCOUNTY........................................................................................................................45

MAKUENICOUNTY...........................................................................................................................46

4 BASELINE REPORT ON CONFLICT-MAPPING AND PROFILES OF 47 COUNTIES IN KENYA

NYANDARUACOUNTY......................................................................................................................47

NYERICOUNTY.................................................................................................................................48

KIRINYAGACOUNTY..........................................................................................................................50

MURANG’ACOUNTY........................................................................................................................51

KIAMBUCOUNTY.............................................................................................................................52

TURKANACOUNTY...........................................................................................................................54

WESTPOKOTCOUNTY......................................................................................................................56

SAMBURUCOUNTY..........................................................................................................................58

TRANSNZOIACOUNTY.....................................................................................................................60

UASINGISHUCOUNTY......................................................................................................................62

ELGEYO/MARAKWETCOUNTY.......................................................................................................65

NANDICOUNTY................................................................................................................................67

BARINGOCOUNTY............................................................................................................................68

LAIKIPIACOUNTY.............................................................................................................................70

NAKURUCOUNTY.............................................................................................................................72

NAROKCOUNTY...............................................................................................................................75

KAJIADOCOUNTY.............................................................................................................................76

KERICHOCOUNTY.............................................................................................................................78

BOMETCOUNTY...............................................................................................................................79

KAKAMEGACOUNTY........................................................................................................................81

VIHIGACOUNTY...............................................................................................................................82

BUNGOMACOUNTY.........................................................................................................................83

BUSIACOUNTY.................................................................................................................................84

SIAYACOUNTY..................................................................................................................................85

KISUMUCOUNTY..............................................................................................................................86

HOMABAYCOUNTY.........................................................................................................................87

MIGORICOUNTY...............................................................................................................................88

KISIICOUNTY....................................................................................................................................89

NYAMIRACOUNTY............................................................................................................................90

NAIROBICITYCOUNTY.....................................................................................................................91

CHAPTER FOUR..................................................................................................................................94

CONCLUSIONS.................................................................................................................................94

RECOMMENDATIONS......................................................................................................................96

REFERENCES.......................................................................................................................................99

ANNEXURE: TABLE ON RATING COUNTIES.....................................................................................100

VISITTOTHECONFLICTAREASOFISIOLO..........................................................................................101


ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The Constitution and Reform Education Consortium (CRECO) Secretariatwishes to acknowledgeWambuaKitukuwhoauthoredthisbaselinereport.WearealsogratefultoTomKagwe,theimmediateformer Chairperson of CRECO Management Committee, for his expert opinion and input whiledevelopingthisreport.

WethanktheManagementCommitteeofCRECOforprovidinguswithaconduciveenvironmentforcarryingoutthiswork.

TheElectionObservationGroup(ELOG)SteeringCommitteeandmemberorganisationarethankedfortheirsupportandandencouragementinthecourseofcompilingthisreport.IndeedthisreportisCRECO’scontributiontotheworkofELOG.

WedoherebyalsoacknowledgethetirelesseffortsofthestaffattheCRECOSecretariatwhoincluded:SalomeNduta,LeoMutisya,BoazMugotoandReginaOpondowhodidimmenseworkandfollow-uptoensurethefinalizationofthisbaselinereport.

Rev.Fr.NicholasMakauofConsolataMissionaries/RSCK-JusticeandPeaceisthankedforallowingustoreproducehisreportontheisiolocrisisinthisbaselinereport.

TheviewscontainedhereinreflectCRECOownviews.

MayallofusworktowardsapeacefulKenyabefore,duringandaftertheseupcomingelections.

__________________________

Kawive, Wambua

ExecutiveSecretary–CRECOSecretariat



TABLE OF ABBREVIATIONS / ACRONYMS

CDF Constituencies’DevelopmentFundCIPEV CommissionofInquiryintoPostElectionViolenceCRA CommissionforRevenueAllocationCRECO ConstitutionandReformEducationConsortiumCSOs CivilSocietyOrganizationsCSR CorporateSocialResponsibilityDPC DistrictPeaceCommitteeECK ElectoralCommissionofKenyaELOG ElectionObservationGroupFGM FemaleGenitalMutilationFORD ForumforRestorationofDemocracyFY FinancialYearGNU GrandNationalUnityPartyHIV HumanImmuno-deficiencyVirusICC InternationalCriminalCourtICT InformationCommunicationTechnologyIDPs InternallyDisplacedPersonsIEBC IndependentElectoralandBoundariesCommissionIIBRC InterimIndependentBoundariesReviewCommissionIIEC InterimIndependentElectoralCommissionIPOA IndependentPolicingOversightAuthorityJSC JudicialServiceCommissionKANU KenyaAfricanNationalUnionKCC KenyaCooperativeCreameriesKCPB KenyaCerealsandProduceBoardKDF KenyaDefenceForcesKENGEN KenyaElectricityGenerationCompanyKPF KenyaPoliceForceKVDA KerioValleyDevelopmentAuthorityLATF LocalAuthorityTransferFundMDAs Ministries,DepartmentsandAgenciesMP MemberofParliamentMRC MombasaRepublicanCouncilNARC NationalRainbowCoalitionNCIC NationalCohesionandIntegrationCommissionNDI NationalDemocraticInstituteNGOs Non-GovernmentalOrganizationsNIS NationalIntelligenceServiceNPS NationalPoliceServiceNPSC NationalPoliceServiceCommissionNSC NationalSteeringCommitteeonPeaceBuildingandConflictManagementNSIS NationalSecurityIntelligenceServiceODM OrangeDemocraticMovementPCC PoliceCodeofConductPEV Post-ElectionsViolencePNU PartyofNationalUnityPRIC PoliceReformsImplementationCommitteeSSR SecuritySectorReformsTJRC Truth,JusticeandReconciliationCommissionURP UnitedRepublicanPartyUSAID UnitedStatesAgencyforInternationalDevelopmentVPK VisionPartyofKenya



ABOUT CRECO

The Constitution and Reform Education Consortium (CRECO)isacoalitionofcivilsocietyorganisations(CSOs)workingondemocracy,governance, legalandhumanrights issues. Itwasfounded in1989and registered as Charitable Trust. Although, founded by legal and human rights NGOs, CRECO’smembershiphasevolvedovertheyears.CurrentlythecoalitionhasCSOsworkingindifferentsectorsbut with a common aim of promoting constitutionalism and good governance ion Kenya. As atDecember2010,CRECOhadatotalmembershipof25CSOs.

CRECObegan itsworkwith countrywide civic education targeted at citizens’ participation in theprocessofreviewingKenya’sconstitution.TheclimaxofthiswasinthedesignandimplementationoftheNationalCivicEducationProgram(NCEPI)intheperiod2000-2002.NCEP1servedasaplatformforcreatinganewcadreofleadershipinKenya.The“MoiMustGo!”campaign,aninitiativeoftheprogram,wasmajorsuccess.ItattributedtothemassivetriumphoftheNationalRainbowCoalition(NARC) in the 2002 general elections. The NARC Government come to powerwith a promise ofdeliveringanewconstitutionin100days.Thepromisewasneverfulfilledduetoanumberoffactorsincluding the feeling that thepublicwasn’tadequatelyconsultedand involved in theconstitutionreviewprocess.AdraftConstitutionpresentedbytheGovernmentwasrejectedbycitizensduringthe21stNovember2005ConstitutionalReferendum.

Intheyears2006–2007,CRECOwasinvolvedinNCEP2,afollowonprogramofNCEPI.Thepurposeoftheprogramwastochampioncomprehensivegovernancereformsaheadofthe2007elections.Throughthisprogram,CRECOchampionedadvocacyinitiativesaimedatstrengthening institutionsthatwouldguaranteefreeandfairelectionscome2007.Thereformsenvisagedwerenotsuccessfulandthisculminatedinthechaosexperiencedduringthe2007elections.Inthe2007post-electionperiod,CRECOamongotherCSOscampaignedfortheinclusionoftheAgenda4reformsinthepoliticalnegotiations.Akeyoutputofthisadvocacywasthatthecoalitionpartnersagreedoncomprehensivereformsandsetupseveralcommissionsandtimelinesforarealisationofthesame.SubsequentlytheIndependentReviewCommission(IREC),theCommissionfortheInvestigationofthePost-ElectionViolence(CIPEV)weresetup.Thesecommissionsemphasizedthatthecountryhadtohaveanewconstitutiontobethebasisforcomprehensivereforms.

InanefforttoensurethatKenyansgotanewpeople-drivenconstitution,CRECOmobilisedCSOstocreateanationalplatformforadvocacyon,andvalueadditionto,theConstitutionalReviewProcess.Thisinitiative,calledthe“KatibaSasa”campaign,wascarriedoutforoveroneyearandinterfacedwiththeworkoftheCommitteeofExperts(CoE)-acommitteethatwastaskedtoharmonisetheviewsofKenyansontheconstitution.Duringthe2010referendumperiod,CRECOwithotherHIVOs-fundedpartners,setupandrolledoutanationalICTbasedmonitoringplatform–Uchaguzi–thatmonitored the referendum. In another front, CRECOwith six other partners in a network calledElectionsObservationGroup(ELOG),carriedoutacomprehensivee-dayobservationofthevotingprocessusingthePVTmethodology.

ApprovalofthenewConstitutionintheAugust4,2010referendumwasakeymilestoneinCRECO’squest forconstitutionalismandgoodgovernance inKenya.CRECOenvisions“a justsociety”. In itscurrentstrategy(2011-2015),CRECOshiftsitsfocusandresourcestopromoteimplementationofthenewconstitutionthroughadvocacy,civicengagement,institutionalstrengtheningandpartnershipsdevelopment. The strategic drivers identified in the strategy are Public SectorManagement andHumanRights.Fromthese, theorganisationhasdevelopedthreeprogrammes:CivicEngagement,HumanrightsandInstitutionalCapacityDevelopment



ABOUT ELOG

Elections Observation Group(ELOG),aconsortiumofcivilsocietyorganisationsandotherstakeholderswasestablishedin2010,toprovideapermanentnationalplatformthroughwhichcitizenscanmonitorgeneralelectionsinKenyaandothercountriesinAfrica.TheprimarymissionofELOGistopromotedemocraticgovernanceinKenyaandotherAfricancountriesbyensuringthatcountriesholdregular,transparent,accountableandcredibleelections.ELOGmembersinclude:

• CentreforGovernanceandDevelopment(CGD);

• ConsortiumforEmpowermentandDevelopmentofMarginalizedCommunities(CEDMAC);

• ConstitutionandReformEducationConsortium(CRECO);

• InstituteforEducationinDemocracy(IED);

• SupremeCouncilofKenyaMuslims(SUPKEM);

• EcumenicalCentreforJusticeandPeace(ECJP)

• UnitedDisabledPersonsofKenya(UDPK)

• CatholicJusticeandPeaceCommission(CJPC),

• YouthAgenda(YA)

• FederationofWomenLawyersofKenya(FIDA).

ELOG Strategy on Thematic Issues Observation

Basedon theVision andMission as captured in the strategic plan, ELOGhasdetermined that itsgreatestfocuswithintheplanperiodwillbethe2012/13Generalelections.ItisaroundthisthatallofELOG’splannedobjectivesandstrategieswillbeorganizedwiththegoaltocomprehensivelymonitorandobservethenextelectioninordertostrengthenelectoralprocessinKenya.

The ELOG strategic plan identifies six key result areas. These include Enhancing stakeholders’awareness;StrengtheningELOGCoalitionandobservationinfrastructure;Comprehensivethematicmonitoring andobservation; E-day observation;Adoption and enhancement of technology basedmethodologies;andEnhancedregionaldevelopmentsandengagementonelectionobservationandreforms.

Broadly, theobjective identifiedunder the key result areaonenhanced thematicmonitoringandobservationistomonitorkeythematicissuesinfluencingtheconductoffreeandfairelections.

ELOG has particularly identified the following seven key thematic issues under which scientificthematicmonitoringandobservationshallbeanchored:

• VoterRegistration

• MonitoringimplementationofPoliticalPartiesActandPoliticalFinancing

• AdvocacyonElectoralLawReformandConstituencyDelimitation

• CampaignMonitoring

• PromotionandParticipationofMarginalizedGroups

• VoterEducation

• MediaMonitoring



FOREWORD

ThecomingintoforceoftheConstitutionofKenyain2010haswidelybeenseenasacornerstoneforthedevelopmentofanationalethosthatunitesusasacountryandaprecursortopeacefulco-existence.Theletterandspiritoftheconstitutionhavethustobeoperationalisedthroughaplethoraofconnectedactionssuchasreformsingovernmentarmsandorgans,legislativeeffectivenessandefficiency,respectfortheruleofjustlawandcivicengagement.

The role of the citizens in ensuring that as a countrywe realise peace and prosperity cannot begainsaid.Kenya’sdiversityisperhapsitsstrongestasset,butinthepastithasbeenusedasafulcrumfordivisivepolitics andmarginalisation.Wehaveanopportunity as a country to change that byacceptingthefactthatweareonenation,onepeopleandareboundbyonedestiny.

The Constitution and Reform Education Consortium– CRECO, undertook a study tomap out theincidences of violence as has beenwitnessed in the recent past in order to develop a basis formonitoringandcarryingoutotheractionsbydifferentactorsthatarehopedtoculminateinbuildingacultureofpeaceinKenya.Indeedthisstudyisacriticalbutfirststepintheprocess.Thereportisreferencedtomarch31st2012.

Ourkeyfindingsascapturedinthetablesbelow[Table1&Table2]indicatethatwegenerallyhavehigher incidences of violence in amajority of the counties. The attendant factors for the ratingsincludeethnicintolerance,borderconflicts,politicalpartyzoning,competitionoverlandandotherresources,proliferationofsmallarms,weaksecurityandpoverty.Thesefactorscannotbetreatedinisolation,andsomearemoresignificantincertaincountiesthaninothers.Theseareexplainedindetailinthebodyofthereport.

Althoughthisisanissueofconcern,weareawarethattherearemanycivilsocietyorganisationsandstateorgansthataremonitoringconflictandactivelyengagingcommunitiesandpersons inpeacemitigationactivities.Ourconclusionisthatalotmoreworkneedstobedonetoensurethatthethingsthatdivideusarereducedandeventuallyeliminated.

CRECOhopesthatthisreportwillbeusedbythemanyotheractorsasabenchmarkforaction.

George Collins Owuor

CRECO Chairperson

The

Report



Table1:CONFLICT MAPPING BASELINE ASSESSMENT

County Political/Security Legal Economic/Social Environment Total

Mombasa 5 2.5 4 5 16.5

Kwale 5 2.5 4 5 16.5

Kilifi 3.5 3 3.5 5 15

Tana River 4.5 2 4.5 4.5 15.5

Lamu 3.5 2 3.5 4 13

Taita Taveta 3.5 2 3.5 4.5 13.5

Garissa 5 3 4.5 4.5 17

Wajir 4.5 2.5 4.5 4.5 16

Mandera 4 2.5 4.5 4.5 15.5

Marsabit 4.5 3 4 4.5 16

Isiolo 5 3 4 4 16

Meru 3 2 2 4 11

Tharaka-Nithi 3.5 2 2 3.5 11

Embu 3.5 1.5 1.5 3 9.5

Kitui 4 3 3.5 3.5 14

Machakos 2 2 2 4 10

Makueni 3.5 2.5 3 3.5 12.5

Nyandarua 3 2.5 3 3 11.5

Nyeri 4 2.5 4 3.5 14

Kirinyaga 4.5 3.5 4 4 16

Murang’a 3.5 3 3.5 3.5 13.5

Kiambu 4.5 3.5 4 4 16

Turkana 4.5 3.5 4 4.5 16.5

West Pokot 4 4 4 4 16

Samburu 4 3 3 3 13

Trans Nzoia 4 3.5 3.5 4.5 15.5

Uasin Gishu 3.5 4.5 3 4.5 15.5

Elgeyo Marakwet

3 2.5 3 3 11.5

Nandi 4.5 2.5 2.5 3 12.5

Baringo 3 2 3 3.5 11.5

Laikipia 4.5 3.5 4 4 16



Nakuru 5 4 3.5 4.5 17

Narok 4 3.5 3.5 4.5 15.5

Kajiado 2.5 2.5 3.5 3.5 12

Kericho 3 3 3.5 3.5 13

Bomet 4.5 3.5 4.5 3 15.5

Kakamega 3.5 3.5 3 3 13

Vihiga 2 4 2 2 10

Bungoma 4.5 4 4 3.5 16

Busia 3 2.5 3.5 3 12

Siaya 3 2.5 2 2 9.5

Kisumu 4.5 2.5 4.5 4 15.5

Homa Bay 3.5 2.5 4 4 14

Migori 4.5 3.5 3 4 15

Kisii 3.5 2.5 3 3.5 12.5

Nyamira 4.5 3.5 4 4.5 16.5

Nairobi 5 2.5 5 4.5 17

Notes:

1. Risksineachcolumnareindicatedona5pointscale:

• 0=thelowestlevelofrisk

• 5=thehighestlevelofrisk.

2. LandissuesareincludedunderEnvironmentcategory.

3. InLegalrisks,thescorestakeaccountofthecontributiontraditionaldisputeresolutionmechanismsmake,setagainstthelevelofaccesstotheformaljudicialsystem.

4. Therearethreeindicativecategoriesofrisk:

0-10 Lowoverallriskscore

11-14 Moderateoverallriskscore

15-20 Highoverallriskscore



Table 2: Conflict Rating on Counties

High Conflict Risks Moderate Conflict Risks Low Conflict Risks

Marsabit Kitui EmbuIsiolo Makueni MachakosMandera Nyeri VihigaWajir TaitaTaveta SiayaNarok HomabayGarissa TharakaNithiTanaRiver BusiaMombasa ElgeyoMarakwetKwale SamburuKilifi MeruNairobi KisiiTransNzoia KajiadoNyamira MurangaMigori LamuBomet KerichoKiambu NandiUasinGishu NyandaruaTurkana Baringo

WestPokot KakamegaLaikipia

NakuruKisumuBungomaKirinyaga



CHAPTER ONE

STUDY BACKGROUNDIntroduction

ThemayhemthatvisitedKenyaafterthe2007/8generalelectionsKenyansclaimedatotalof1,300livesandleftover350,000othersinternallydisplaced.1EventhoughelectoralviolencehadbecomepartandparcelofKenya’spoliticalculturesincetheintroductionofmultipartypoliticsinthe1990s,the nature, level and intensity of the 2007/8 Post-Elections Violence (PEV) was unprecedented.Thewantonkillingswerehaltedwhenthetwoprotagonists’andpoliticalformations(thePartyofNationalUnity(PNU)ledbyPresidentMwaiKibakiandOrangeDemocraticMovement(ODM)ledbyRailaOdinga)signedtheNationalAccordwhichcreatedapowersharingarrangementandlaidtheframeworkforbroad-basedpoliticalreformstoaddresstherootcausesoftheviolence.2

Someof thenotablereformsthatwerecarriedout includedtheestablishmentofcommissionsofinquiryintotheconductoftheelectionsandpost-electionviolence,formationofaTruth,JusticeandReconciliationCommission(TJRC)andcompletionofconstitutionalreformsthathadabortedafterthe2005referendum.Asaresultoftheseprocesses,theElectoralCommissionofKenya(ECK)wasdisbandedandanInterimIndependentElectoralCommission(IIEC)establishedtooverseeelectoralprocessespriortoadoptionofanewconstitution.AnIndependentBoundariesReviewCommissionwassetuptoaddressgrievancesarisingfromunequalrepresentation.

The commission that inquired into post-election violence recommended for the prosecution ofKenyanswhoheld thehighest responsibility for theviolence,whichwasnotdone.This instigatedthe Prosecutor at the International Criminal Court (ICC) to start investigations into the violence,culminatinginthearraignmentofsixKenyansattheICC.Bythetimethisreportwasbeingpublished,fourofthem,(UhuruKenyatta,WilliamRuto,FrancisMuthauraandJoshuaSang)hadbeenindictedtofacefulltrialattheICC,whileMajorGeneralHusseinAliandHenryKosgeyhadbeendischargedofthecharges.

Perhapsthegreatestachievementofthepost-2007reformswastheadoptionofanewconstitutionthroughapeacefulnationalreferendumheldinAugust2010.ThereferenduminitselfvindicatedthedecisiontodisbandthedefunctECKandgavehopethatKenyanscouldconductfutureprocesseswithrelativepeaceandcalm.Theconstitutionusheredinnewinstitutionsandpromisedelectionsin2012.Sadlyhowever,theIndependentBoundariesCommissionwasunabletocompleteitsmandateandhencetheunresolvedissueofunequalrepresentationwascarriedoverintothenewconstitutionaldispensation.

InKenya’shighlypatriarchalenvironment,womenhaveconstantlyfacednumerouselectoralcriseswhenseekingpoliticaloffice.Theyrangefromgenderbiasesinpartynominationstonegativesocio-cultural attitudes from the electorate even to electoral violence instiagted against women.3 TheConstitutionofKenyaprovidesopportunitiesforleadershipnotjustforwomen,buttheyouthandpersonswithdisability.Furthermoretheconstitutionstatesthatparliamentshouldnothavemore1 See Republic of Kenya, Report on Commission on Inquiry into Post Election Violence, 2009, Nairobi: Government Printers 2 See the various reforms and status of each by South Consulting. Visit Kenya National Dialogue and Reconciliation, www.kenyadialgoue.org, accessed April 13, 2012. 3 CREAW in Partnership with AMWIK - Running for political office: A handbook for women Candidates.http//www.creawkenya.org/pdf/running for political office.pdf accessed 16th April 2012



that2/3rdofonegender.Amechanismforthisisyettobeputinplace.

Theyouthhavebeencondemnedfortheroletheyhaveplayed inelectoralviolence intherecenthistoryofKenya.Theyhavebeenaccusedofbeingthefoot-soldiersofthepoliticalandethnicbaronswhohaveeithersponsoredorpresentedviolenceastheonlyalternativetoperceivedorrealconflict.InasmuchastheConstitutionofKenyahasaraftofpromisesfortheyouth,mechanismsofensuringthattheyouthactuallybenefitandworktowardstherealisationoftheconstitutionaldreamhavenotbeenput inplace.KazikwaVijanaandNYEFhaveremainedeither inaccessibleor inadequatetomostyouth.Itistruethatpoverty,unemploymentandunfulfilledpromisesremainfactorsthatfrustratetheyouthandthereforetheir likelihoodtoparticipate in lawlessactivitiesofmilitiasandothergroupingsarehigh.Arayofhopehoweverisdawningonthenationasmoreyouthengageinpeaceinitiativesacrossthecountry.Itshouldalsobementionedthatmoreyouththanevervotedin2007.

RecentlytheHighCourtmadeadecisionthatthenextelectionsshouldbeheldon4thMarch2013,howeveraappealhasbeenlodged.TheCourtofAppealcouldreiteratewhattheHighCourtdecidedoralterthatdatetoanyother,includinginDecember2012asmanyKenyansandsomecommentatorsand politicians have expressed. The stage therefore has been set for another intense season ofcampaignsandelectioneering.

Therefore,thequestionlingeringinthemindsofKenyansis:willKenyawitnesshigherscaleviolencethanthatof2008?ItisagainstthisbackgroundthatCRECOdecidedtoestablishageneralelectionsmonitoringprogrammewithfinancialsupportfromtheNationalDemocraticInstitute(NDI)focusingonconflicthotspots.Thisbaselinereportisthereforepartofthisinitiativeandseekstotoidentifylikely hotspots of violence in 47 Counties of Kenyawith a view of identifyingmeasures that canminimizethechancesoferuptionofviolencebefore,duringandaftertheseelections.

THE BASELINE STUDYObjectives

Theobjectivesofthestudywereto:

• IdentifylikelyhotspotsofviolenceintheCountiesinaccordancewithanalysesofvariedriskfactors;

• Review the legal reforms in the security sector since2008andhow thesewill impactonpeacebuildingandconflictpreventionstrategiesfortheupcomingelections;

• Identifytriggerfactorsthatarelikelytocauseviolenceinthecountry;and,• Identifymeasurestobeputinplacetopreventandmitigateoccurrenceandrecurrenceof

violenceintheidentifiedhotspots.

Methodology

Thestudycoveredallthe47Countiesintherepublicandthepoliticalconstituenciestherein.Thestudywasbasedonadesktopreviewofexistingliteratureincludingreportsbygovernmentsuchascensusreports,demographicsurveys,economicoutlooksurveys,CommissionforRevenueAllocation(CRA)reports,andsoon.Further,reportsbyNon-GovernmentalOrganizations(NGOs),scholarlywritingsinthefieldofconflictandtherelevantlawstodevelopageneralcontextofpeaceandsecurityinKenyawerereliedupon.WithregardtospecificpeaceandsecurityissuesattheCounties,theresearchersfurtherreviewedrelevantreportsandaugmentedthiswithtelephoneinterviewswithkeyinformants,mostlyNGOworkersandopinionleadersresidentinthesaidareas.



Using information obtained from the aforementioned sources, the researchers drafted a reportcontainingthelegalcontextofpeaceandsecurityarchitectureinKenya,Countyprofilesonconflictandpeaceissuesandoverallconclusionsandrecommendations.ThedraftreportwassubjectedtoreviewbyCRECOmembersandtheviewsgeneratedthereafterwereincorporatedintothefinaldraft.

CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK Conflict refers toasituationwhereat least twogroupsare inconsciousoppositiontoeachother,pursuing incompatible goals.4 Conflict will usually involve struggles over values and claims overresources,powerandstatus.Conflictscanbecharacterizedasarmed/violentornon-armed/violent(dependingondegreeofuseofweapons),inter-stateorintra-state(dependingongeopoliticalarena),localizedorwidespread(dependingonscope),short-termorprotracted(dependingontime-frame).

Thecausesof conflictsarevaried. In itsdraft report, theKenyanNationalSteeringCommitteeonPeace Building and ConflictManagement (NSC) dichotomizes conflict factors into structural (thatislongtermcauseswhichcreatepotentialclimateforviolentconflictswithoutmakingitseruptioninevitable)andacceleratingortriggerfactors(thatis,events,actionsanddecisionswhichescalatedisputes into violent conflicts).5 Structural factorsmaybe referred toas root causes,whichmeritcloseranddeeperconsiderationwhenattemptingtoresolvelongstandingandprotractedconflicts,whereastriggersandacceleratorsaretheimmediatecausesthathowevercriticalinearlydetectionandwarningsystemsforpreventionofconflicts.

TheNSCfurtheridentifiesstructuralfactors.6Theseinclude:

1. Political: exploitation of ethnic differences for political purposes (politicization ofethnicity), weak state institutions or manipulation of these institutions for politicalpurposes,disenfranchisement,marginalizationofminoritiesandperipheralgroupsanduseoforganizedviolence(gangs)toachievepoliticalends

2. Security:proliferationofarmsandlightweapons,commercializationofcattlerustling,andweaksecurityarrangements.

3. Economic:poverty,inequality,corruption,classconflictandunderdevelopment.

4. Legal:failurebylegalsystemtoresolvedisputesjustlyandcomprehensively,manipulationoflegalsystemtoperpetrateinjustices.

5. Social and cultural: exploitation of cultural differences and identities with negativeconsequences, use of cultural tools (songs, poetry, narratives etc) to propagate andperpetuateconflicts.

6. Environmental:scarcityorinequitableaccesstoanddistributionofenvironmentalgoods(land,water,forestsetc),environmentaldegradationcausingenvironmentalharm.

ThisstudyadoptstheabovefactorsastheconceptualframeworkformappingandanalysingconflictsinKenya.

4 Juma Kathina, Unveiling women as pillars of conflict building in fractured pastoralist communities in Kenya, in United Nations Development Programme interim report for Bureau for Development Programmes accessed from http://magnet.undp.org/ ac-cessed 24th January 2012 5 The National Steering Council on Peacebuilding and Conflict Management, Structural factors driving conflict in Kenya: A multi-dimensional analysis, 2011 unpublished6 Ibid pg 4-21



LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

Thestudyconcentratedalotondesktopresearchandkeyinformantinterviewsaskeymethodologies.ThestudydidnotseektodisaggregateortodoanindepthstudyonparticularissusesaffectingPersonswithDisability,WomenandYouth.Thoughtheyaregenerallyreferredtofurtherstudieswouldbehandyinbringingouttherealityoftheirsituation.Thereportalsodoesnotmaptheexistingactorscarryingoutobservationandpeaceinitiativesacrossthecountry.



CHAPTER TWO

NEW CONSTITUTION AND REFORMSThe new constitution is big on the doctrine of separation of powers and at this point, especiallyindependenceof institutions suchas the judiciary. It is commonknowledge that in2007and theyears before andevenafter, until the referendum in 2010which saw to thepromulgationof thenewconstitution,thejudiciarywasatthemercyoftheexecutive.Thepresidentcouldappointandfirejudgesatwillandnobodycouldquestionhisactions.Thiscastdoubtsintheeyesofthepublicastotheintegrityofthejudiciary.Kenyanswerenolongersurewhoheldthestringsofjusticeandsopeopleresortedtoothermeansofdisputeresolution,someverybarbaricsuchasmobinjustice.Thisledtoanescalationininsecurityandsowhileseekingtoestablishsecuritysectorreforms,thejudiciaryisastrategicpoint(Brenner,2005,p.68).

Thenewconstitutionprovidesthatthepresidentcanonlyappointtwoofthe13membersoftheJudicialServiceCommission(JSC),andsotheexecutivehaslesscontrolintheappointmentofmembersoftheJSC.Article168veststhepowertoremoveajudgeontheJudicialServiceCommission.Article173establishesajudiciaryfundtocaterfortheadministrativeexpensesofthejudiciary.TheChiefRegistraroftheHighCourtpreparesestimates,whicharepresentedtotheNationalAssemblydirectly.Thesereformswillsecuretheindependenceofthejudiciaryandensurethatpublictrustisoncemorebestoweduponthejudiciarysothatpeoplearewillingtooncemorepresenttheirdisputestothejudiciaryforresolutioninsteadoftakingjusticeintotheirownhands.

Otherreformsincludethoseinvolvingtheelectoralbody.TheformationoftheIndependentElectoralandBoundariesCommission(IEBC)isagreatleapintosecureelectionsbecausethisbodyisdevoidofanypoliticalinterferencebyvirtueofitsformation(Ndungu,2011,p.5).Thenewconstitutionalsodrasticallyreducespresidentialpowersandinsodoingreducestheincentiveforviolence.The2007PostElectionsViolenceandtheconsequentpeacetalksmadeitobviousthatvestingtoomuchpowerononepositiontothedetrimentofallothercompetingcandidatessothat ifone loses,they loseitall.Thereforeaspartofthesolutiontothe2007PostElectionsViolenceKenyaendedupwithanarrangementwhichdistributedpowerbetweenthepresidentandhisprimeminister.

Finally,KenyanpoliticalpartiesarerequiredtocomplywiththePoliticalPartiesActof2011orriskderegistrationaftertheexpiryofthedeadlineinApril2012(Kisiangani,2009,p.4).Consequently,Kenya’s leaders shallbeheldaccountable for their actionsby the systemsput inplaceas variousinstitutionstowhichKenyanscanturntoforrespiteshouldconflictsarise.ThiswillsomewhatreducetheriskofarecurrenceofPEV.

It is important to realize that thePEVwas fannedbynumerous reasons including complex socio-economicandpoliticalinteractions.Violencewas,therefore,usedasatacticintheensuingpoliticalgame aswell as a weapon or a tool for settling disputes concerning the distribution of nationalresources(Namayi,2010,p.2).However,thiswasalltothedetrimentofKenyansandtheypaidthepricewiththeirownlivesandproperty.Itisthusimportantthatthesamedoesnotrecurin2012/13and this paper has discussed in brief someof themeasures takenby the government andotherplayers toenforcesecurityreformssince2008 inabidtopreventrecurringviolence.Thereformshavegonebeyondaddressingtechnicaldeficienciesandtheyhavealsotouchedonothergovernancechallengeswiththeeffectthattheentirecountryfeelsincludedinthereformactivity.AgoodexampleisthereferendumwhichusheredinaneweraforKenya.Atthispoint,itisimportanttoremember



thatthereasonwhypreviousattemptsatsocialsecuritysectorreformswereunsuccessfulwasthelackofaconstitutionalreferencepointgroundedindemocracy.Thenewconstitutionprovidedjustthat.

SECURITY SECTOR REFORMS

SecuritySectorReforms(SSR),alsoreferredtoassecuritysystemreform,hasemergedsincetheendoftheColdWarasastrategyforstabilizingandreconstructingsecuritysectorinstitutions,especiallyinpost-conflictortransitionalcountries.7SSRarethoseactivitiesundertakenbyacountrytoimprovethewayitprovidessafety,security,andjusticetoitscitizens.SSRareparticularly importantinthecontextoffailingorfailedstates,offeringameansofarrestingthefailureprocessinthefirstinstanceandsupportingfailedStaterecoveryinthesecond.8WhilemanymayargueKenyawasnotafailedState,manywouldagreethatKenyawasonthevergeoffailing.FailingorfailedStatesareusuallyunabletoprovideequitablesafety,security,andjusticetotheirpeoplethroughthetraditionalStatemechanismsofpoliceorcourts.Insuchsituations,Statemechanismsareineffective,predatory,orabsent.9ThedesperationthatKenyasunkintoin2008isperfectlydescribedbytheforegoingsentence,whichwasaresultofignoringmanySSRrecommendations,whichhadprecededthatviolence.10

Followingthepost-electionviolenceof2008,radicalproposalswereproposedonhowtoreformtheKenyaPoliceForce(KPF);especiallybytheCommissionofInquiryintoPostElectionViolence(CIPEV)andtheReportoftheNationalTaskforceonPoliceReforms(PhillipRansley).11Amongothers,theCIPEVfoundthatduringthepost-electionviolence,therewereactsofcommissionandothersofomissionbytheKPF.CIPEVthereforerecommendedthattheissueofrepresentationanddiversityofpoliceberelookedatafresh,decentralizationofthepolicecommandstructure,legalandstructuralreforms,createavenuesfor legalandpoliticalaccountability incaseofhumanrightsviolations,themergerof theAdministrationPolicewith theKPFunder one command, and the creationof anoversightstructurebycivilians.Ontheotherhand,Ransley’sTaskforcedidrecommendestablishmentofanexternalaccountabilitymechanism(theIndependentPolicingOversightAuthority),reformthecodeofconduct,establishaconflictofinterestpolicywithinthepolice,improvethetermsandconditionsoftheKPF,andcreateabodytosuperviseandimplementtherecommendationsoftheTaskforce,abodywhichexiststodate–thePoliceReformsImplementationCommittee(PRIC).

ThePRIChas sustaineddemand for reforms,andworkingwithvigilantCivil SocietyOrganizations(CSOs),hasgivenimpetustoSSR,inparticulartothepolice.Thegroundforreforms,afterthe2008post-electionviolence,shiftedundertheKPF.ThreemainattributesinformthisseriousnessandhasteofensuringwereformtheKPF:a)theroleoftheKPFindealingwithpost-electionviolence,whereatleast400peoplelosttheirlivesthroughgun-shotwounds;b)lackofimpartialityandobjectivityformostKPFseniorandjuniormembers,withregardtothatviolentconflict;andc)thepromulgationof

7 SSR is also called security system reform. This reframing came about with the understanding that security is an integrated activity within a system of state and non-State systems, which include not only the armed forces, police, gendarmerie, intelligence services, justice, and penal systems, but also the civil authorities responsible for oversight and democratic control (e.g., parliament, the executive). The term security system reform is used to emphasize the interconnectivity of its numerous components. See, Susan Merrill (Ed), Security Sector Reform: A Case Study Approach to Transition and Capacity Building, Visit www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil/newsletter , accessed December 06, 20118 Ibid9 Ibid10 Previous efforts had indeed foundered. These efforts included a Taskforce on Police Reforms of 2005, whose report was not adopted for implementation, but which had made radical proposals in 8 areas that could reform the police. These were benchmarks, which could measure the extent to which reforms in the force were successful or not. These included: community policing; crime reduction; effective disaster management; improved police image; enhanced accountability; efficient human resource management; building capacity of police; and lastly, establishment of an Information, Communication and Technology (ICT) strategy.11 See Reports by both the Taskforce and the CIPEV: CIPEV, http://www.dialoguekenya.org/docs/PEVReport1.pdf, accessed December 21, 2011, and for Taskforce, see Republic of Kenya, Report of the National Taskforce on Police Reforms, October 2009, Nairobi: Government Printers



theConstitutionofKenya(2010),followedbyitsimplementationthroughlegalisationthatrequiressubstantivechangestothewayKPFoperates.

Withinthisnewpoliticalandjuridicalorder,accountabilityoftheKPFtocivilianauthority,reformsthatcouldbetermedradical,andsuchSSRinitiativeswererecommendedsothatKenyacouldmovefromthatpost-conflictsocietytowherepowersexercisedbyStateagenciesaredonesowithintherealmofruleoflaw.Indeed,thelegislationthathavebeenpassedpointdirectlytowardsthechangesbeingsought.Theseinclude:theNationalPoliceServiceCommission(NPSC)Act;theNationalPoliceService(NPS)Act,whichoperationalizeshowtwopreviousoutfitswillreporttoasinglecommand;and,theIndependentPolicingOversightAuthority(IPOA)Actthroughwhichallcomplaintsagainstthepoliceorofthepoliceshallbeinvestigatedwithaviewtoprosecution.

POLICE REFORMS AND INSTITUTIONS

Thepolice‘force’isalsototransformintothepolice‘service’.Thisshouldgoalongwayinredeemingthepolice imageandcharacter fromonewhichwassecretive,corrupt,brutal,with impunity,andreactiveintoonethatistransparent,humane,responsive,andproactive.ThisalsoincludesrevampingthePoliceCodeofConduct(PCC)inanattempttostampoutdecadesofunethicalconductandtostreamlinegeneralpoliceconduct(Onguije,2009,p.5).Withregardstocapacitywithinthepoliceservice, theaforementionedvices that accompanyanymentionof thepolice includingnepotism,corruptionandlackofresourceshaveresultedininsufficientmanpowerwithinthepoliceserviceandconsequently,theirservicedeliveryisineffectiveandinefficient(Ndungu,2011,p.6).Moreover,theplightofthepoliceregardingtheirpayandthedeplorablelivingandworkingconditionshaveresultedinanunsympatheticattitudetowardsthepublicbythepolice,andthisinturnresultsinpoorservicedeliverybythepolice.

ThecostofaffectingthesereformsisapproximatelyKshs.80millionoverthecourseofthreeyears(Ndungu, 2011, p. 3). The country has already began to reap the results as portrayed by properremunerationandhousingofthepolice,refurbishingofpolicestations,newequipmentandvehiclesforthepolice,upgradedcommunicationequipment,andskillstraining.Forevenbetterresultsthegovernmentneedsensure thatbudgetingand funding for thevariousprojectsareadequate, thatthereistimelyreleaseto,andthatallthesechangesaresensitivetogenderandminorityconcerns.

In all this, the importance of the international community’s involvement and support cannot beforgotten. Kenya needs the technical expertise boasted by the developed countries in terms oftechnologytorevitalizeitssecuritysystem.Itisimportanttokeepabreastwiththeglobaldevelopmentsintermsofammunitionandinallhonesty,Kenyahasnumerousproblemsandinvestinginsecuritymaynotbegiventhedueseriousnesswhentheministeroffinanceisfacedwithdrought,andfamineamong other immediate crises while formulating the budget. Consequently, when internationalplayersliketheUnitedStates,theUnitedKingdom,Sweden,Japan,andtheUnitedNationsoffertheirsupportintermsoftechnologicalexpertiseandfunding,theireffortsshouldbeencouragedbytheKenyangovernment(Kisiangani,2009,p.7).Thiscanbeachievedthroughproperutilizationofthedonors’funds:thatis,forthepurposewhichtheywereinitiallyintendedbythedonors.

Inadditiontothepolicereforms,thereisneedforreformsinothersectorsaswell.Onesuchsectoris thecriminal justicesystem,which includesthe judiciary,criminal investigationsservice,andtheNationalSecurityIntelligenceService(NSIS,2011).Theneedforbalancecannotbeoveremphasizedin the goal of achieving effective security sector reforms. The intervention by the ICC to try theperpetratorsofthePEVinKenyahasservedasaneye-openerforthepublicintermsofaccountabilityandwhichcouldreduceinsecuritybyanotchduringtheupcomingelections(Namayi,2010,p.9).ConverselytheICCisalsoariskfactorforviolence.



CHAPTER THREE

STUDY FINDINGSThisChapterexaminesthevariousconflictsituationsandscenariosobtainedinthe47CountiesofKenya.Theconflict triggersareanalysed in termsofpolitical, security,economic, legal, socialandculturalandenvironmentaldimensions.Theriskspertainingtotheidentifiedconflictsandtriggershavebeenweighedandinconclusion,theresearchershaverecommendedtheextenttowhichCRECOshouldcloselymonitorrespectiveCountiesorotherwise.

MOMBASA COUNTY

MombasaCountyishosttoKenya’ssecondlargestcityofMombasa.Itcoversanareaof219squarekilometersbutholdsapopulationof939,370,comprisingMvitaIslandandMombasamainland.TheCountyhas4constituencies-Mvita,Changamwe,KisauniandLikoni.Itishosttomanycommunitiesduetoitscosmopolitannature.

Political dimensions

Mombasawas significantly affectedby thePEV.At least 25people lost their lives as violent riotsspreadfromtheislandtothemainlandsuburbsinLikoniandnorthcoastareas12.Whereasviolencein the Island subsided quickly, fighting persisted in Kisauni areas due to presence of the feudingcommunities and entrenched poverty thatmade looting attractive. The scars of PEV still remainamongtheresidentsofMombasa.TheCountywasalsoaffectedbythe1997electoralviolence inLikoniarea,wherebyresidentsdeemedtohaveimmigratedfromupcountryregionswereviolentlyevictedbyindigenousMijikendapeople.

InKisauni,thechroniclandproblemoccasionedbyabsenteelandlordsandlandgrabbinghasalreadyled to recent confrontations between the residents (squatters) and security forces. The issue islikelytobepoliticizedastheelectionsapproach.Besides,asecessionistmovementhasemergedinMombasa,calledtheMombasaRepublicanCouncil(MRC).Startedassocietyofdisaffectedyouth,theMRCbeganadvocatingforsecessionoftheformerCoastProvincefromKenyaduetowhattheytermasmarginalizationofindigenouscommunityandtakingoveroftheirlandbyupcountryandforeignimmigrants.ThegovernmentinitiallyreactedtotheMRCbybanningtheorganizationandcrackingdownonitsmembers.13Later,thegovernmentretractedaftertheassociationchallengedthedecisionintheHighCourt.Thegroupisevidentlyusingthegrievancesoflocalyouthdisaffectedwithfailedpastgovernmentpromisestouplifttheirwelfare.AlreadytheyhavelodgedapetitionincourtseekingtobegrantedordersforreferendumtodecidethefateofwhatisformerlytheCoastProvince.Iftheactivitiesofthegroupassumemilitaryobjectivesandwageasecessionistuprising,thiswilldefinitelyaffecttheelectoralenvironmentinthearea.

Security dimensions

MombasahasbeenatargetofterroristattacksandisconsideredvulnerabletoAlShabaabthreat.There are heightened security operations in the County and this could also affect the electoral

12 Republic of Kenya, 2008 supra at pg 22613 See for instance see Daily Nation (24th November 2011) where it is reported that 18 suspected members of the MRC were arrested in Kisauni on suspicion of conducting illegal oathing rites.



environment.Thedrugmenace ismostpronounced inMombasathananywhereelse inthecoastregion.Druglordsareknowntousetheirmoneytoinfluenceelectoralpoliticsinthearea.Thismayinclude sponsoringviolenceagainstunfavourable candidates. This is something thatmerits closerattentionintheforthcomingelections

Economic Dimensions

Mombasa is the second largest city in the country. Its economy is based largely on tourism,transportation(port,railwayandroad),manufacturingindustryandtrade.IntheFinancialYear(FY)2008/9, the County received a combination of Kshs735million from the Local Authority TransferFund(LATF)andConstituenciesDevelopmentFund(CDF). It isthereforeexpectedthattheCountywill receive large transfers fromtheNationalGovernmentunder thedevolutionscheme.Thiswillthereforemakethe2012electoralcontestahighstakesaffair.

Legal Dimensions

Theformaljusticesystemisfairlyentrenchedintheregionandaccessthereforeisnotaproblem.Itmaybeusedtodealwithanyelectoraldisputes.

Social and cultural dimensions

Mombasa,asexplainedelsewhereisacosmopolitanarea.Intheislandareawhereallconstituenciesexcept Likoni converge, there is a sizeable Arab-Swahili majority, whereas in the mainland, theMijikendaare themajoritywithastrongpresenceofupcountrycommunitiesnotablyKikuyu,LuoandKamba.Theindigenouscommunitieshaveexpressedvocaldispleasurewiththedominationoftheupcountrycommunities intradeandemploymentsector.Thisdispleasurehasthepotentialofturningintooutrighthostilitythereforecreatingfertilegroundsforconflict.Therealsoexistanuneasyrelationship between theMijikenda and theArab-Swahili communities and therefore sometimes,electoralpoliticsintheCountyareframedintermsofonegroupversustheother.Hostilitiesthereforeare likely to emerge between these two communities where their members directly face-off inelections.

Environmental dimensions

LandprobleminMombasaismostfeltinKisauniandLikoniareaswherelargepopulationsofsquattersare tobe found. There is alsoa longstandingproblemof absentee landlordsholdingtitle to landoccupiedby indigenouscommunities.Whenever, these landlordsor their representativesattempttoasserttheirrighttotitle,this ismetwithconfrontation.Theproblemof landgrabbing isalsoapotentiallyexplosiveoneandintherecentdays,ithasledtocallsfordismissaloftheCoastProvincialCommissioneronallegationthathecontinuestogiveprotectiontolandgrabbers.

Conclusion

Mombasa,beingthesecondlargestcityisanobviousboilingpotcomethenextelection.Duetoitscosmopolitannature,activepresenceofsecessionistgroup(theMRC),longhistoryofpost-electionviolenceandpersistentlandproblem,thechancesofelectoralviolenceeruptingishighandthereforetheentireCountymeritsclosermonitoring.

KWALE COUNTYKwale issituated inthesouthernmosttipof thecountry,borderingTanzaniatothesouth, IndianOcean to the east and Taita Taveta,Mombasa and Kilifi to the north. The County occupies 8270squarekilometerswithapopulationof649,931(2009Census).TheCountyispredominatedbythe



Mijikenda, even thoughmigrant communities (primarily the Kamba and Kikuyu) are found in thesettlementschemesthatwereestablishedduringindependenceperiod.Thereare3constituenciesintheCounty,whichareMatuga,KinangoandMsambweni.

Political Dimensions

The 2007/8post election violence affectedonlyUkunda andDiani areas inMatuga constituency.This said violencewaspurportedly ignitedby spontaneous anger following the announcementofpresidentialelectionsand lastedforonly4days14.TheviolencewasdirectedtowardsmembersoftheKikuyucommunity.Similarviolencewasreportedfollowingthe1992and1997elections,eventhoughthescaleandgeographicalspreadwaslarger.Thereasonwhythemagnitudeoftheviolencein2007/8periodwaslowcanbeattributedbytheinterventionbyreligiousleadersandelderswhodissuaded the youth from engaging in acts of violence. The scars of the violence are evident asanimositytowardstheKikuyuandotherupcountrycommunitiesstilllingerinthearea.

The County should be monitored for the exploitation of ethnic differences for divisive politicalpurposes. For instance, there are calls for the prosecution of the currentMatugaMP, Chirau AliMwakereonallegationsthathehadutteredhatespeechduringcampaignsinthe2010by-electionsthatwereheld in thatconstituency.15Thingsare likely to takeasharperdimension in thecomingelections,particularlyduetotheemergenceoftheMRCwherepro-secessionistsentimentsarehighintheCounty.

Security Dimensions

Inthe1997violence,youthmilitiawereestablishedbypoliticiansandusedtotargetnon-indigenouscommunitiesforeviction.Theseyouthcaneasilybemobilizedforviolenceifneedbe.Thispossibilityrequiresclosermonitoringsothatredflagscanberaisedifmobilizationofthemilitiatakesplace.LikeMombasa,KwaleisadverselyaffectedbytheillicitdrugtradeandthishasbeenblamedforinsecurityproblemsaffectingplacessuchasUkundaandDiani.

Economic dimensions

Kwaledependsontourism,agricultureandfishingforitslocaleconomy.Povertyintheareaisoneofthehighestinthecountryat74%.TheareareceivedKshs462MintheFY2008/9(CRA:2012).Withsuchhighpovertylevels,coupledbyignorance,itispossiblefortheelitetomanipulatevotershencetheneedtomonitorcloselytheconductofpoliticiansinthepre-electionperiod.Itisalsoanticipatedthatelections for theCounty-levelpositionswillbehotlycontested incosmopolitanareas,as theindigenouscommunitiestrytoasserttheirsuperiorityandhencecontroloverdevolutionresources.

Legal Dimensions

The County is served bymagistrates in Kwale town only and this therefore affects adversely thepeople’s access to justice in the area. The influence of religious leaders and elders is strong andthiswasattributedtothelowscaleofviolencereportedintheareain2007/8period.Anyconflictmitigationstrategyshouldtakeintoaccountthisfact

Social dimensions

Socialdistancebetweentheindigenousandmigrantcommunitiesiswide,thuscreatingfertilegroundsforethnicanimosity.Thisisreinforcedbythefactthatmigrantcommunitiesholdlargetractsofland14 Mwandawiro, Supra pg 4315 http//www.the-star.co.ke/national/national/57814-mwakwere-may-be-charged-with-hate-speech. Accessed 30th March 2012



onprimelocationsintheCountyandhavegainedemploymentinthelucrativetourismindustryattheexpenseofindigenousMijikenda.Itispossiblethereforeforpoliticianstoexploittheseethnicdifferencesforpoliticalreasonswithviolentconsequences.


LandlessnessisanemotiveissueintheCounty.Thisiscoupledwithownershipofprimelandbymigrantcommunities.Thelandissuehascreatedfertilegroundsforpro-secessionistgroupslikeMRCtogainlargefollowinginthearea.Besideslandlessness,aridareasintheCountysuchasKinangohavebeenadverselyaffectedbyclimatechangeandthereforevulnerabilitytoperennialdroughtshasdisruptedlivelihoodsinthisconstituency.Ifafamineoccursduringelection,itwillmakeifdifficultforvoterstoparticipateeffectivelyintheelectoralprocess.InthenorthernareasoftheconstituencyborderingKilifi,therehavebeenconflictsoverpasturepittingthelocalsagainsttheSomalipastoralists,thoughthisisnotamajorissue.Human-wildlifeconflictisprevalentinareasborderingShimbaHillsParkandthismayaffectsecuritysituationduringelections.

Conclusion

Kwalepresentsaveritablechallengeforelectoralmonitoringconsideringthattheareahaspreviouslybeenrockedbypost-electionviolence.ThelikelyhotspotsareMatugaandMsambweniconstituencies.

KILIFI COUNTY

KilifiCountycomprisestheformerKilifiandMalindidistrictsanditbordersLamu,TanaRiver,TaitaTaveta,KwaleandMombasaCounties. It covers12,610squarekilometerswitha largepopulationof1,109,735persons (Census2009). TheCountyhas5Countituencies -Bahari, Kaloleni,Malindi,MagariniandGanze.Themainethnicgroupresiding in theCounty is theMijikenda,withsizeablelocalandforeign(mostlyItalian)migrantcommunitiesinthemajortouristtownsofMalindi,MtwapaandKilifi.


The area has a protracted land problemmanifested in the lack of security of tenure for locals,existenceofabsenteelandlordsandgrabbingofprimebeachplotsbyforeignersandlandspeculators.Inequalities occasioned by failure of the tourism industry to empower local communities couldeasilysnowballintoapoliticalgrievance.Itisnoteworthythatdespiteitscosmopolitannature,theCountyonlyexperiencedpostelectionviolenceinMtwapatownwhichwasattributedtoawaveoflootingandanarchythatsweptMombasatownanditsenvirons.16Otherwise,KilifiandMalinditownsremainedlargelypeaceful.

Economic Dimensions

Kilifi County is among the poorestwith a poverty rate of 71.4%despite having vast tourism andagriculturalpotential(CRA,2012).TheCountyreceivedatotalofKshs507millionintheFY2008/9asresourcetransfersfromthecentralgovernment.Povertyisattributedtoweaklandtenuresystemsthat prohibit squatters from developing their land and poor leadership in the area. Inequalitiesoccasionedbyweakresourcesharingmechanismsofthelucrativetourismindustryareasourceofconcern.

Security Dimensions

TheCountyhasrelativelyfewsecuritythreats,otherthanestablishedlongpresenceofdrugbarons.

16 Ibid pg 66-7



Infact,thelargesthaulofcocaineeverseizedbyauthoritiesoriginatedfromMalinditownin2006.Thepotentialofdrugmoneybeingusedtoinfluenceelectionsnegativelyishigh.

Legal dimensions

Customaryandformallegalsystemsexistsidebyside.TheCountyhas4magistratecourtstationsinKaloleni,Mariakani,MalindiandKilifitowns,servedby9magistratesandoneHighCourtstationinMalindi.TheproximityofHighCourtincreasesthecapacityofcourtstoresolveelectiondisputes.

Social dimensions

This County is multi-ethnic with tension revolving around land issues and poverty. Furthermoreforeignersplayaverydominantroleinlocalindustries.TheCountyhasalsobattledforalongtimewithproblemsofchildsexabuse.Literacylevelsarelowandthismakesthepopulationvulnerabletopoliticalmanipulationhencetheneedforclosemonitoringofelections(only7.1%ofpopulationhassecondaryeducation-CRA,2012).


Besides the land issue,Malindi town is beset by environmental degradation emanating from thelocal saltharvestingenterprise.17Thisenterpriseemploysevaporationof seawater toextract saltfromnearbyshores.Thishas ledtodestructionofmangroveforests(asourceofwoodfor locals),soilerosion, salinationof localwater sourcesandhealthproblems forworkers. It is likely tobeamajorelectionissue;withownersofthefactorylikelytousetheireconomicinfluencetomanipulatingvotingpatternsbyminimizingoppositiontotheircontinuedoperations

Conclusion

TheriskformanipulationofelectionsintheCountyishighduetolowvoterliteracy,landproblemsandpoverty.Basedonpasttrends,itisalsoimportanttocloeselyobservetheinfluenceoffactoryownersontheelectoralprocess.

TANA RIVER COUNTY

TanaRiverCounty is the largest in the formerCoastProvince,with38,437squarekilometersandoccupyingatleast49%ofthetotallandareaoftheentireprovince.However,theprovincehasthesmallestpopulationsizeat240,075persons.ItisinhabitedbythepastoralistOrmaethnicgroupofSomalidescentandtheagriculturalPokomoethnicgroupofBantuextraction.TheCountyhasthreepoliticalconstituencies:thatisBura,GarsenandGalole.


TheCountyderivesitsnamefromtheRiverTana,whichisthelargestinthecountry.TheriverprovideswaterforirrigationinthethreeschemeslocatedintheCountyi.e.Hola,BuraandTanaDeltawiththePokomobeingthebeneficiariesoftheprojects.TheriverincidentallyhascreatedconflictsoveraccesstowaterbythepastoralOrmacommunities.EffortstoresolvelandconflictsbetweentheOrmaandthePokomothroughlandadjudicationhavenotbeensuccesful. ThereisaperceptionamongtheOrmaisthatthePokomowanttodenythemtheirhistoricalrightsofaccesstopastureandwaterduringdryseasons.18Thewholematterhasbeenpoliticizedleadingtoconflictseverytimeanelectionapproaches.

17 Ibid18 See Institute of Security Studies, Guns in Borderlands, 2005 accessed from www.iss.co.za accessed 24th January 2012



Security Dimensions

Theproliferationofarms inNorthernKenyahashad implications for theTanaRiverconflicts. It isclaimed that theOrmahave soughtmilitaryassistance from their Somali cousins inneighbouringGarissa in their conflicts with Pokomo resulting in an increased use of firearms with deadlyconsequences.TheaftermathoftheShiftaWaralsoledtoproliferationofbanditsintheCountywhopredatedontransportbusinessalongtheMalindi-GarissahighwayandtheGarissa-Hola-Garsenroutes.ThebanditsarealsosaidtoberesponsiblefortheriseinpoachinginTsavonationalpark.

Economic Dimensions

Inspiteofbeingendowedwithimmenseagriculturalresources,TanaRiverhashighpovertylevelsat76%(CRA,2012).Seemingly,theCountyhasbeenunabletofullyexploittheagriculturalandtourismpotentialoftheTanaDeltaduetoincessantconflicts.ResourcetransfersfromthecentralgovernmentwereatKshs542MintheformofCDFandLATFinFY2008/9(CRA2012).Withsuchhighfiguresatstake,itislikelythatthestruggleforpoliticalpowerattheCountylevelwillbeintense.

Legal Dimensions

TheCountyhastwomagistrates’courtslocatedinGarsenandHola.HighcourtmattersarehandledatMalindi.ThelocalresidentsestablishedtheTanaRiverDistrictPeaceandDevelopmentCommitteetoarbitratecommunaldisputesbetweenthePokomoandOrmacommunities,withparticipationofreligiousandpolitical leaders.This isstillaviablealternativedisputeresolutionmechanismintheCounty

Social Cultural Dimensions

HostilitiesbetweentheOrmoandPokomoduetotheculturaldifferencesarethemostsignificantfactorsexacerbatingconflictsintheCounty

Environmental Dimensions

DammingofRiverTanabytheKenyaElectricityGenerationCompany(KENGEN)hasreducedwaterflowsdownstreamleadingtosomeconflictsofwateraccess.Similarly,destructionofwatercatchmentsareasinupperpartsoftheCountyhavealsohadsimilareffects.Human-wildlifeconflictsareontheriseasresidentsencourageonwildlifehabitatswithinthevastDelta.Landandwateraccessconflictsarealsoenvironmentallyconditionedinthispartofthecountry

Conclusion

TanaRiver is highpolitical risk areaowing to ethnic differencesbetween thePokomoandOrma,whichtendtoassumepoliticaldimensionsduringelections.

LAMU COUNTYLamuCountyislocatedinthenortherntipoftheformerCoastProvince,borderingGarissa,TanaRiverandSomalia.Itoccupies6273squarekilometersareaincludingalargemainlandandseveralislandsand isletswith a populationof 101,539 (Census 2009). Resident communities include theBajuni,Pokomo,Arabs,WabonyiandalargeimmigrantKikuyucommunitythatsettledintheareaduringtheKenyattaregime.TheCountyhastwoconstituencieswhichareLamuEastandLamuWest.TheCountyisknownfortourismandricharcheologicalheritageowingtoLamuIsland,whichisoneoftheoldesturbansettlementsintheEastAfricancoastline.




Despite itsmulti-ethnic complexity, Lamu has no recent history of violent conflict.19 In the 2007generalelections,voters inLamusupportedRailaOdingaofODMforPresident,butchoseaPNUcandidatesforparliament.

However,tensionsoverlandremainintheconstituency,withlocalscomplainingoverillegalallocationofancestrallandstooutsidersandforeigners20.ThefactthattheKikuyuimmigrantsweregrantedtitledeedsbytheformerPresidentMoi’sgovernmenttotheexclusionoflocalsisanothergrievance.Sofar,thisgrievancehasnotassumedvigorouspoliticalarticulationbutthepotentialofviolentconflictstilllurks.

Security dimensions

Lamu also suffered from the aftermath of the Shifta War and the collapse of Somalia’s centralgovernment,leadingtoaninfluxofsmallarms.Asaresult,themainlandbecameinfestedwitharmedbanditswhoroutinelyterrorizedthetransportbusinessintheCounty.Cattletheftisalsocommon,intheareaandthesameisblamedontheSomalibanditsfromGarrisaorTanaRiver.LamuhasalsobeenconsideredahidinggroundoftheAlShabaabandAl-Qaedaterrorists.Infact,theslainMohammedFazulregardedasthemastermindoftheNairobiUSembassyterroristattackresidedintheislandofFazaformanyyearsunnoticed.

Recently, the islandofKiwayuwasthrusted intomedia limelight followingtheseizureofaFrenchholidaymakerbysuspectedAlShabaabandtakentoSomaliaviathesea.TheongoingwarbetweentheKDFandtheAlShabaabhasbeen launchedfromLamu’sborderareaofKiungaaswellasthecoastalwatersoffLamuIsland.Thus,alargepartofthenortherntipoftheCountyanditscoastalwatersisnowamilitaryzone.Ifthewarwillhaveanimpacton2012elections,thenLamuwillalsobeaffected(oratleastsomepartsthereof).

Economic Dimensions

LamuisamongthewealthiestCountiesinKenya,asevidencedbyrelativelylowpovertylevels(32.7%)androbustlocalrevenuebaseofKshs1.023billion(CRA,2012)duetoheavyinvestmentsinthetourismindustry.Inaddition,theCountyreceivesoneofthehighestresourcetransfersfromthecentralgovtatKshs1.23billioninFY2008/9.ThegovermenthasalsorevisedtheLamuPort&LamuSouthernSudan-EthiopiaTransportCorridor(LAPSSET)atransportandinfrastutureprojectthatwillbeKenya’s2ndtransportcoridor.TheProjectwillcostanestimated$22B.21Withsuchimpressiverevenuefigures,onewouldexpectthistotranslateintoeconomicprosperityfortheresidents.However,thisisnotnecessarilythecase.Thedistricthasonly3publicsecondaryschoolsand17primaryschoolsinLamuEastconstituency.22

Legal dimensions

Lamu County is only served by onemagistrate’s court in Hindi (mainland). High court cases arehandled inMalindi.Traditionalmethodsofdisputeresolutionarecommonamongthe indigenouscommunities.Sofar,theseseemtohavehandleddisputesfairlyinthisarea

19 Mghanga Mwandawiro, Usipoziba ufa, utajenga ukuta; Land , elections and conflicts in Kenya’s Coast Province, 2010 Heinrich Boll Stiftung: Nairobi20 Ibid 21 www.republicofkenya.org 22 Ibid pg 84



Social cultural dimensions

Lamubeingacosmopolitanareaisboundtoelicitculturaldifferencesandclashes.Already,indigenouscommunities feel aggrieved by the preferential treatment given to the immigrant Kikuyu ethniccommunitiesandthismaylaterboilintoethnichatred.

Lamulikeotherpartsofthecoastalareasisaffectedbythedrugmenace.Drugcartelshavethrivedintheurbanareasforalongtimeandanti–drugabusecrusadershavebornethebruntofattacksbydruglordswhodonothesistatetodemonstratetheirpowerandinfluence.23Theextenttowhichdrugmoneyfinanceslocalpoliticsisnotclearbutthisissomethingthatmeritsmonitoring


LandisabigissueinLamu.TenuresystemshaveensuredthatindigenouscommunitieslacktitlesorremainastenantsinpropertiesownedbyfeudalArablandlords.24Unlessthematterisresolved,itmightlateronprovetobeatickingtime-bomb.Concernshavealsobeenraisedonthepotentialeffectof the LamuPortSouthSudanEthiopiaTransportCorridor (LAPSSET)projectontheenvironmentespeciallyinreferencetotheecosystemoftheMangroveforests.

Conclusion

Even though the County has never been beset by serious conflict and strife, the land problem,togetherwiththecosmopolitannatureofthearea,widespreadilliteracy,threatsfromAlShabaabanddrugmenacemayprovidelong-termconflictriskfactorsthatcouldaffecttheelectoralenvironment.

TAITA TAVETATaitaTavetaislocatedinthesouthernpartofthecountryanditbordersTanzaniaandKwaleinthesouth,KilifiandKituitotheEast,MakueniandKajiadotothenorth.Itoccupiesatotalof17,084squarekilometersandapopulationof284,657(2009Census).TheDawidaandTavetaaretheindigenouscommunitiestothisareawhereasasizeableKikuyu,Kamba,LuoandSomalimigrantpopulationissettledinthearea.Thereare4constituenciesintheCountywhichhaveMwatate,Voi,WundanyiandTaveta.

Political Dimension

Theareawas largelyunaffectedby thePEVexcept foronecentre,Werugha,whereshopsownedbymembersoftheKikuyucommunitywerelootedfollowingtheannouncementofthepresidentialelections.ThelandquestionisanimportantpoliticalissueintheCounty,since89%ofthetotallandareaisundertheTsavoNationalPark.25Theremainder11%issharedbetweentheresidentsandfewlargescalelandholders.Duetothis,thereisasizeablesquatterpopulationandlandpressureshaveforcedsomeofthefamilymembersinatleasteachhouseholdtoemigratefromtheCountyinsearchofopportunities.26

The land issue has featured prominently in previous elections. The government hasmanaged tocompulsorily acquire land from for the settlementof some squatters. It is thereforenecessary toensurethattheresettlementofsquatters isdone inamannerthat isconsistentwiththe lawandmoreimportantly,theissueisnotabusedforpoliticalpurposes.

It isalso important tonote thatTavetaconstituency isacosmopolitanonecomprising theTaveta23 Ibid pg 8324 Ibid25 Mwandawiro, Ibid pg 3326 Ibid



(indigenouscommunity),theKamba,LuoandTanzanianssignificantlyrepresented.Politicsintheareahasalwaysbeenframedintermsofindigenousversusthemigrantcommunities.Thismaylaygroundfortheexploitationofnegativeethnicity.

There is a high potential for border conflicts, since Taita Taveta has historically never settled itsboundarieswithalmostallitsneighbours.WithdisputesoverIEBCboundariesreportensuing,itispossiblethatthismatterwillerupt intoopenconflictunlesspoliticalconsensus is reachedsoonerthanlater.

Security Dimensions

TaitaTavetaisaborderCountythatispronetoinsecurityduetocross-borderthuggery.Thereisalsoahighincidenceofpoachingwithinthenationalparkandanimalsanctuariesinthearea.However,thesemaynotposesignificantriskinthecomingelections

Economic dimensions

TaitaTavetahasapovertyrateof54%whichisconsiderablyhigh(CRA,2012).TheCountyhoweverisrichinmineralssuchasgemstones,ironoreandlimestone.27Tourismisalsoasignificantincomeearner, owing to the fact that TsavoNational Park and numerous animal sanctuaries are locatedwithintheCounty.However,itissadthatthesaidmineralandtourismwealthhasnotchangedthefortunesofthelocalsbutrathercontinuestobeassourceofconflict.ThelocalresidentshaveaccusedthegovernmentofdishingoutlandtomineralprospectorswithoutconsultingthepeopleandthishasreinforcedtheviewthatthewealthoftheCountyisbeingexploitedbyoutsiders.AllthetourismrevenueispaidtotheKenyaWildlifeService(KWS)andthereforeremittedtocentralgovernmentwithlittletricklingbacktothelocals.Thishascausedbitternessamongthelocals,consideringthattheybearthegreatestbruntofhuman-wildlifeconflicts.

IntheFY2008/9,theCountyreceivedatotalofKshs848millionfromcentralgovernmentasCDFandLATF.ThisissignificantforaCountywithsucharelativelylowpopulation.IntensivecompetitionforCountylevelpositionsislikelytointensifyinthecomingperiodandthereforemeritsclosermonitoring.

Legal Dimensions

The County hasmagistrates’ courts in Voi,Wundanyi and Taveta, hence locals have considerableaccess to justice.Thesecourtscouldplayan important role inaddressingconflicts thatmayariseduringtheelectoralperiod.Communityeldersarestillinfluentialinmostplacesandthereforecouldhelpstemconflictsthroughalternativedisputeresolutionmeasures

Social dimensions

TavetaandVoiarethemostethnicallydiverseconstituenciesintheCounty,duetothepresenceoflargemigrantcommunitiesthatcameaslabourersorsettlers.Sometimes,ethnictensionsarise.Thissituationwillthereforemeritexternalscrutinyasawayofdeterringanypotentialviolence.


Tensionsoverlandownershiparemostprevalentinthedistrict.Thesetensionspitlargescalelandownersversusthesmallholders,squattersversusregisteredowners,thegovernmentversussquattersandagriculturalistsversusanimalranchers.Somedisputesoverownershipofcommunalland(groupranches) crop up. Besides land-related conflicts, the County has also experienced human-wildlifeconflictspersistently.

27 Ibid pg 28



Conclusions

TaitaTavetahasaconsiderablehighconflictriskduetosuchfactorsasthelandquestion,disputesoversharingofwealth,borderdisputesandethnicdifferences.AllconstituenciesintheCountythereforemeritclosemonitoring.

GARISSA COUNTY

Garissa County is located in the lower reaches of the formerNorth Eastern province and sharescommonborderswithWajir,Somalia,Tanariver,KituiandLamuCounties.TheCountyhasacreageof44,175squarekilometerswithapopulationof623,060persons(2009Census).ItcomprisesfourconstituenciesDujis,Fafi,LadgeraandIjara.ItisinhabitedalmostexclusivelybytheOgadenclanoftheSomalibutsub-clanidentitiesaremuchstrongerandthus,thepeoplearefurtherdividedintoAbdwak,AbdallaandAuliyansubclans.Migrantpopulationfromdowncountryistobefoundinmajortradingcenters.TherealsoexistaminorityclusterofclansknownasMuhammadZubeiror‘cornertribes’whicharebelievedtohavemigratedintotheregionfromWajir.


ThepoliticalconstituenciesinGarissaaredelineatedalongclanlines.TheAuliyanoccupytheLagderaConstituencyintheNorth,whereastheAbdulla(thesmallestofthethree)occupiesIjarainthesouth.TheAdwak,whoperhapsarethewealthiestandmostpowerfuloccupyDujisandFaficonstituencies.

Like inManderaandGarissa, ascensionbya clan to the leadershipof anarea is seenas amovetowardsinstitutionalizingthegroup’sexclusiveclaimoverthepoliticalterritoryinquestion.InGarissafor instance,theAbdiwakconsiderDujisandFaficonstituenciesastheirancestral lands.However,followingthecollapseoftheSomaligovernmentin1991,therehasbeenasteadyinfluxofAuliyanSomalisfromSomalia.Overtime,thishasaffectedthedemographyinthetwoconstituenciesinfavouroftheAuliyantothechagrinoftheAbdiwak.28

Further,eventhoughthetwoclansarecloselyrelatedandhavesharedpastureaswellasaccesstoRiverTanainthepast,awaveofinhospitalitygrewintherunuptothe2002elections,whenitbecameclearthattheincreasedAuliyanpopulationwouldleadtolossoftheAbdiwak-heldconstituencies.Asaresult,tensionseruptedintofullscaleconflictbetweenthetwocommunitiesbetweentheyears1998and2000,spreadingandescalatingintoGarissatownandleavingupto30peopledead.Ittooktheinterventionofbusinesscommunityandlocalleadersfortheconflicttosubside.

Similar tensions have over time arisen following the electoral cycle, suggesting possibility ofpolitical incitementby theeliteas thekey trigger.Already, tensionsarehighover thecreationofnewconstituencywithin theCountyaswasevidenced in thefight thatbrokeoutduring the IEBChearingsheldatGarissatowninJanuary2012.It isthereforeimportanttomonitorthisCountyas2012electionsapproach

Security Dimensions

Liketherestof theNorth,GarissahasseenaproliferationofsmallarmsoccasionedbytheShiftaWarandlaterbythecollapseoftheSomaligovernment.29ThepresenceofrefugeesinDaadab,nowestimatedat400,000people,continuestobeasecurity issue.Thecamp issaidtobeasourceofilllictweapons that endbeingused in local clasheswith deadly consequences. The refugee issuealsoassumesapoliticaldimensionattimes.Itisnotuncommonduringelectionstohearclaimsby

28 See for instance, Menkhaus K, Kenya-Somali Border Conflict Analysis, 2005, USAID Nairobi at pg 2529 See Pkalya R and Halakhe H (eds, Combating the problems of small arms in Northern Kenya: Testimonies and case stud-ies of pastoral communities, 2011, Government of Kenya: Nairobi



politiciansthatrefugeeshavebeenillegallyregisteredasvotersinordertoinfluencelocalelections.

Garissa is thenearest largetowntothearenaof theKenyaDefenceForces (KDF)andAlShabaabconflict.IthasincreasinglybecomevulnerabletoterroristattacksfromAlShabaab.Forinstance,on24thNovember2011,agrenadeattackwaslaunchedinabarwithinthetown,leadingto2deathsandseveralcausalities.30Thisviolencewillsetarathertensestageforpoliticalandelectoralcampaigns.

Economic Dimensions

Garissahasrelativelylowerpovertylevelsat49%(CRA2012)thantherestofNorthernKenya.Themainstayofthelocaleconomyislivestockpastoralism,sedentaryagriculturealongthebanksofRiverTanaanditstributariesandthrivingtradeinGarissatownandcrossbordertownsofLiboi.

Control of cross border trade has precipitated conflicts in the area. For instance in 2000, theMuhammadZubeirclansviolentlyoverthrewtheAuliyaninthebordertownofDobleyostensiblyinabidtocontrolcrossbordertradeatthestrategictown.31ThegrudgeharbouredbytheAuliyanovertheincidentstillpersistsasnopeaceagreementorreconciliationhasevertakenplacebetweenthetwogroups.

Garissareliesheavilyonresourcetransfersfromthecentralgovernment.InFY2008/9,theCountyreceivedatotalofKshs470MintheformofCDFandLATF.

Legal Dimensions

Garissanowhasahighcourt stationaspartof theongoing judicial reforms.However, traditionaljusticeresolutionmechanismsstilloperatealongsideformalsystems.Thesetraditionalsystemsarecreditedformanaginglocalconflicts.However,whenelderstaketoolongtoresolvetheconflict,orwhereatriggerisviewedaspurelypoliticallymotivated,traditionalmechanismsseempowerlessasthesituationescalates.

Social cultural dimensions

Garissa,liketherestofNorthernKenyaispredominantlymuslim.TheconflictinSomalialedtotheemergenceofAlIttihadAlIslam,aformofSalafijihadismwithadistinctivelypan-Somalinationalistagenda.32TheCountyhasexperiencedattacksagainstChristian institutions intheCountyand it isthereforeimportanttomonitorthelevelsofreligiousintoleranceasthismayleadtodisenfranchisementoftheminorityChristiangroupsintheCounty.


GarissaCountyissemi-aridandthereforelandandaccesstowaterresourcesarethekeydriversofconflictintheregion.ThesetwoareconnectedwiththelivestockpastoralismlifestyleoftheresidentsoftheCounty.However,conflictsoverurbanspaceshaveemergedinrecentyears.Forinstance,localclanshaverecentlyclashedoverallocationoflandinBulaKaratasiareaofGarissatown.

Conclusion

Garissabearshigh risks thatought tobemonitoredprior to the2012elections. Thepresenceofrefugees in Daadab, deteriorating border situation in Somalia, religious intolerance and resource

30 See the Standard, 25th November 2011 Edition31 Menkhaus K, 2005 32 See more analysis of this in International Crisis Group, Kenyan Somali Radicalization, in Policy Briefing, Africa Briefing No 85, 25th January 2012



based conflicts are key factors that might affect the electoral environment in the run-up to theupcomingelections.

WAJIR COUNTY

WajirCountyislocatedinthemiddleoftheformerNorthEasternProvince,borderingManderatotheSouthandIsioloandMarsabittotheWestandSomaliatotheEast.Itoccupies56686squarekilometerswithapopulationof664,941persons(Census2009).TheCountycomprisesfourconstituencies:WajirNorth,WajirEast,WajirWestandWajirSouth.LikeMandera,theCountyisoverwhelminglySomaliwithsmallmigrantcommunitiesresidentintheCountyaseitheradministratorsorbusinesspeople.TheSomalicommunityiscomposedoftheAjuran,Degodia,OgadenandGarreclans.


During thecolonialperiod, thegovernmentdemarcated theCounty intograzingblocks thatwereassigned to each clan, ostensibly to prevent conflict over pasture and water resources for theirlivestock.33 These blocks assumed political significance when the post-independent governmenttransformed them into political constituencies. A victory by a clan in a particular constituency isviewedasamovetoinstitutionalizingtheclan’sholdoverresourcesanddisenfranchisementoftheclansthat ‘lose’ thoseelections.34Until1997,Wajirhadthreeconstituencies:WajirEast-Degodia,WajirSouth-OgadenandWajirWest-Ajuran.

TheAjuranconsiderthemselvesastheoriginalinhabitantsofWajirandhencehaveconsistentlylaidhistorical land claims to theWajirWest constituency,where theyarepredominant.However, theDegodiahaveover thetimemigrated into the constituencyandafterentering intoallianceswithneighbouringGarreclan,theywereabletocapturetheWajirWestConstituencyin1979,1984and1992elections.Thisresultedininter-clanwarspittingtheAjuranovertheDegodia.Theworstflare-upbetweenthetwocommunitieswaswitnessedintheperiodbetween1992-5whenapproximately1213peoplewerekilledand1500wereinjuredfollowingtheelectionofaDegodia.Eventually,thegovernmentcreatedaWajirNorthConstituencyexclusivelyfortheAjuran.35ThismovehasnotsettledtheAjuran’sclaimsoverWajirWestconstituency.Infact,itopenedanewconflictfrontpittingtheAjuranandtheGarrewhoconsiderpartsofWajirNorthastheircustomarygrazinggrounds.

The1992-5conflictwaseventuallyresolvedthroughabroad-basedinitiativethatwasspearheadedbycivilsocietygroupswithstatesupport,whichculminatedintheAlFatahDeclaration.36Thisledtoaperiodofrelativecalmuntil2000-1whentensionsbetweentheAjuranandGarreledtofullscaleviolencethatleft15peopledeadand3,300displaced.37TheconflicthadbeenprecededbyaquietmovebytheAjurantodisplacetheGarreinthenewWajirNorthconstituencyaspunishmentforthelatter’ssupporttotheDegodiainthe1997elections.

ItInviewofthistrendofclantensions,thesituationshouldbemonitoredintherun-upto2012/3electionsasanewconstituencyhasbeencreatedintheCounty.38

33 Ibrahim D and Jenner J, Wajir Community Based Conflict Management, 1996 accessed from http://payson.folane.edu/ conflict/cs%20st/janfin2/html 34 See Menkhaus Ken, The Rise of the Mediated State in Northern Kenya: The Wajir Story and its implications for State- building, 2008 in Afrika Focus, Vol 21 Nr2, 2008 at pg 2535 Ibid pg2836 Ibrahim D and Jenner J supra37 Menkhaus supra, pg 2838 Unfortunately, the Court has stayed the creation of the 80 new constituencies meaning that the general elections have been thrown into disarray. The IEBC has to challenge (through an appeal) whether this decision can be reversed. See Daily Nation, Saturday, April 13, 2012.



Security Dimensions

Wajirwaspartof theNorthernFrontierDistricts territory that remainedclosed to therestof thecountry during colonial period. After independence, the area residents joined the clamour forsecessionandthereforeborethefullbruntoftheShiftWarofthe1960s.In1984,clanconflictsinthearealedtotheWagallaMassacre,duringwhich400DegodiamenandyouthdiedofexposureandthirstafterbeingroundedupbytheKenyanmilitaryandleftinthesunforthreedayswithnofood,water,orshelter39.Political instability inSomaliaandEthiopia ledto influxofrefugeesandarmedweaponsintotheCountyandthishascontributedtoensuingconflictsandinstability.

Localconflictshavealsosucked in foreignmilitia thusaggravating thesituation.For instance, it isclaimedthattheDegodiaenlistedmilitarysupportfromtheirSomalicousinsinthe1992-5conflict,whereastheGarreenlistedthesupportoftheirEthiopiankinsmeninthe2000-1conflict.40Thereisnoguaranteethatsuchalliancescannotbeenlistedinfutureconflictsandhencemeritclosermonitoring

ItisalsonoteworthythatKDF’sonslaughtagainsttheAlShabaabhasbeenlaunchedfrompartsoftheWajir-Somaliaborder.TheareahasthereforebecomepronetoattacksattributedtotheAlShabaab.Forinstance,betweenDecember2011andJanuary2012,explosionshaverockedpartsoftheCountyleaving6peopledeadandscoresinjured.Iftheseattacksescalateintherun-uptotheelections,theymayadverselyinterferewiththeelectoralenvironment.

Economic Dimensions

Wajir isamongthepoorestCounties inthecountrywithpovertyrateshoveringaround84%(CRA2012).ThesituationisworsenedbytheCounty’svulnerabilitytodroughtandconflictswhichadverselyaffects its livestock base. The County nevertheless has oil potential as evidenced by numerousexplorationlicensesthathavebeengrantedtoforeigncompanies.ThestrategicimportanceoftheCounty fromamilitarypointof view ismanifested in the recent constructionof anultra-modernairportand thepresenceofa largearmyoutpostwithinWajir town.Resource transfers from thecentralgovernmentamountedtoKshs391millionintheformofCDFandLATF(CRA2012).


EthnictensionsandhatredarelongengrainedintheCounty’scultureandhistory.TheAjuranviewtheotherclansasoutsiderswhereastheotherclansseethemselvesaspoliticalascendants.Conflictsoverresourceshavealsoworsenedsocialtensionsbetweenthevariouscommunities.However,thishasnotruledoutalliances.Forinstance,inthe1992-5conflict,theAjuranandOgadenformedanallianceagainsttheDegodia,whereasinthesubsequentperiods,theDegodiahaveformedallianceswithGarretofighttheAjurans.Thecommunitieshaveusedpoetry,songsandotherculturaltoolstopropagatemessagesofethnichatredhenceworseningconflicts.Thesetoolsmeritclosermonitoringduringelectionperiods.

Legal Dimensions

Customary justice systemsplay amore central role in conflict resolutionandmanagement in theCountymorethantheformaljusticesystem.Thisisattributedtothelimitedpresenceofformalcourts(onlyonemagistrate’scourt)andtheremotenessofarenasofconflict.TheroleofeldersinadoptionoftheAlFatahDeclarationcontributedimmenselytotheresumptionofpeaceintheCounty.However,forsuchmechanismstosucceed,thetacitsupportfromthestateisnecessary.Theextenttowhichthesemechanismscanbeemployedinresolvingelectoralviolenceandconflicts issomethingthat

39 Ibrahim D, supra- this Massacre is the subject of inquiry under the ongoing Truth Justice and Reconciliation Commission’s mandate.40 Menhkaus supra



requiresfurtherexploration.


Like the rest of the Arid Northern Kenya, climate change has dramatically increased the region’svulnerabilitytodroughtsandfloods.Thishasimperiledtheratherfragilelivestockbasedlivelihoodsandruledoutpossibilitiesofsedentaryagriculture.Conflictsoverresources(pastureandwater)areon the riseas influxof refugees fromSomalia intensifiespopulationpressures in theCounty. It isthereforeimportantfortherootcauseofsomeoftheseconflictstoberegardedassuchandresourcesavailedtosupportclimatechangemitigationandadaptation.

Conclusion

Political risksattendingtoconflicts in theCountywill remainhighas thenextelectionsapproach.ThedeterioratingsecuritysituationinSomaliawillalsowarrantcloserattentiontotheforthcomingelections fromamonitoringpointof view. In the samevein, there isneed tomonitor theuseofenvironmentaltriggersinprecipitatingelectoralviolence.

MANDERA COUNTYManderaCountyissituatedonthenortherntipofKenya’sboundarywithSomaliaandEthiopia. Itoccupies25,999squarekilometerswithahighpopulationof1,025,756personsalmostexclusivelybelongingtotheSomaliethniccommunity.Thecommunityishoweverdividedinto5clanswhicharetheGarre,Murulle,Degodia,Marehanandso-called‘cornertribes’.TherearethreeconstituenciesintheCounty:ManderaEast,ManderaWestandManderaCentral.


PoliticsinManderaisorganizedalongclanlines.TheGarrecomprisethemajorityintheCountyandusing their numerical strength, they have dominatedManderaWest and Central Constituencies,whereas theMurullecontrolManderaEastConstituency.TheGarrebelieve thatMandera is theirterritoryafterhavingmovedintheareaandforciblyevictedtheBoranainthe19thCentury,pushingthemtotheirpresent-daysettlementinMoyale.41TheMurulleandDegodialatermovedintotheareaandwereallowedtosettlebytheGarre.

Inthepost-independenceperiod,theGarreheldthesoleManderaparliamentaryseatuntil1983,whenaMPfromMurullewaselectedwiththesupportofvoters fromvariousgroups.This ledtosuccessfulagitationbyGarre for theconstituencytobesplit intoManderaWestandEast.Duetothis history of it is therefore expected that the general electionswill be keenly contested by thecommunitiesandhenceriskswillbehigh.

It shouldalsobenoted that theGarreandMurullehaveclashedviolently in1983/4,2001/5and2007/8periodonmatterswhicharecloselyrelatedtopolitics.42WiththenextelectionsrepresentinghighstakesatCountylevel,thesituationmeritsclosermonitoring.

Security Dimensions

ManderaispartoftheNorthernFrontierDistrictsthattookpartintheShiftsecessionistcampaignin the 1960s. The County residents are scarred by the effects of the Shifta War, especially theadministrativeandeconomicisolationthatcamewithit,andhencehaveahistoricalgrievanceagainsttheKenyanstate.CollapseoftheSomaliacentralgovernmentin1991andinstabilityinEthiopialed

41 UNDP Kenya, Dynamics and Trends in Conflict in the Greater Mandera in Amani Papers Vol 1 May 2010 pg 742 Ibid pg 12



toproliferationofsmallarmsintheCountyandcontiguousareas,makingconflictsassumedeadlydimensions.Wheneverlocaldifferencesescaletintoviolence,itissuspectedthatfeudingclansusuallyengagemilitiasfromneighbouringSomaliatofightontheirbehalf.43

TheongoingwarbetweentheKDFandtheAlShabaabmilitantsinSouthernSomaliawillalsohaveanimpactonthenextelections,sincedeteriorationofthesecuritysituationcouldactuallyimpairfreeandfaircampaignsorleadtocancellationofelectionsalltogether.Thisheightenstheneedforclosemonitoringoftheelectoralcampaignenvironment.

Economic Dimensions

Mandera isamongthepoorestCounties in theCountrywithpoverty levelsat87.8%(CRA,2012).TheprimaryeconomicactivityislivestockpastoralismwithcrossboundarytradealsoaccountingforthevibrancyofManderabordertown. It isbelievedthattheCountyhasmineralwealthpotential(petroleum),eventhoughpreviousexplorationexerciseshavebornenofruit.Thus,theCountyreliesheavilyonresourcestransfersfromthecentralgovernmentwhichtotaledKshs213MinFY2008/9.

Legal Dimensions

TheentireCountyisservedbyoneMagistrate’scourtbasedinMandera.Duetothis,residentshavereliedontraditionaljusticemechanisms(providedbycommunityelders)toresolveconflicts.DisputeresolutionmethodscentreonpaymentofMaslaha(looselytranslatedas‘compensation’)forcrimescommittedagainstmembersoffeudingclans.44ThesemechanismshavebeenusedtoresolvedeadlyconflictsthatoccurredintheregionandwerecreditedwiththeadoptionofUmulAccordin2005,whichisperhapsthegreatestpeace-buildingeffortintheCountytodate.Theprovincialadministrationplaysaroleindisputeresolutionbutisseverelyconstrainedbyinadequateinfrastructureandlogisticalconstraints.45


Relations between Garre and the other communities have been characterized by tensions andhostilities,arisingfromtheformerssenseofentitlementtoalltheterritoryinManderaandfeelingsthatthelatterareencroachers.ItisthissentimentthatmotivatedtheGarretoattackanddisplacetheMurullefromElWaktowninthe2000conflict.46TheDegodiahaveemergedasneutralintheGarreandMurulleconflictandassuch,theireldersareusually invitedtomediatetheconflictsbetweenthesetwolargegroups.

Creationofadministrativeunits (districts,divisionsand locations) inManderahavebeenasourceof conflict as they are interpreted as giving the resident clan exclusive rights over administrativeterritories.Thishascreatedtensionsoveruseofsharedresourcessuchaswaterandpasture.Thesetensionsarenotconfinedtoaffectedareas,butalsoextendtourbancentreswhereanyslightincidentmaytriggerstreetfightsbetweenrivalclans.

Itisalsosuggestedthatlocalpoetry,songsandrhetorichasbeenusedtoincitepeopleagainstrivalcommunitiesanddemonizingsomecommunities.47Prevalenceofsuchculturaltoolsisacriticalsignthatclanhatredisindeedentrenchedinthecollectivepsychesofthesecommunities.

43 Ibid44 Due to lack of formal courts, many victims of human rights violations therefore opt for Maslaha, a kangaroo court where they receive ‘compensation’ after discussion and agreement between their families and those of the offenders, despite its shortcomings and the ‘court’ is presided over men who often discriminate against women. See Njari Gitonga, Tribal, modern law differences cause trouble, Visit http://www2.mssu.edu/international/mccaleb/kenya/tribal.htm , accessed April 10, 2012. 45 Ibid Pg 1846 Ibid pg 1047 Ibid pg 28-9




ManderaCountyisaveryaridareawithfewwaterresources.Thereisonlyonepermanentriver(RiverDawa)flowing fromsouthernEthiopianhighlandsdown throughMandera into southernSomalia.The restof theCounty is servedbywaterpans, natural springs andboreholes,whichareownedbyresidentcommunity.Duringdryperiodswhenscarcityworsens,communityeldersusuallycomeupwithcomplexschedulesforsharingthewaterresources.Failurebyagrouptoadheretotheseschedules usually results into conflict. Access to pasture is usually a negotiatedprocess involvingeldersfromconcernedcommunities.Witharisingpopulation,deteriorationofsecuritysituationinSomalialeadingtoinfluxofrefugeesandworseningeffectsofclimatechange,pressureoverpastureandwaterresourcesismountingandthishasincreasedconflictrisksinMandera.

Conclusion

Ethnicizationofpolitics, boundarydisputes, fragile security situationand resource-based conflictselevatetheconflictrisks inManderatohighcategory.Forthisreason,monitoringoftheelectoralenvironmentinallconstituencies(particularlyManderaCentral)shouldbeamatterofpriority.

MARSABIT COUNTYThisCountyislocatedinthenortherntipoftheformerEasternprovinceanditisthelargestCountyin the republic, covering approximately 70,961 square kilometers with a population of 291,666persons.48TheCountyhas5constituencies,whichare:Laisamis,Saku,NorthHorrandMoyale. Intermsofethnography,MarsabitcomprisesoftheBorana,Gabra,Burji,RendilleTurkanaandEl-Molocommunitiesinthatdescendingorder;intermsofpopulation.


Politicizationofethnicandclan identitiesposes thegreatestchallenge in termsofconflict factorsin the County. Thismanifests itself in ethnic rivalries between the Gabra and Borana, which arethetwolargestcommunities,occupyingtheSakuandMoyaleconstituencies.Leadersinthesetwoconstituenciesareknowntomobilizeforsupportalongethniclines,henceprecipitatingconflicts.Itisnotuncommonforinstanceforleadersoftwoormorecommunitiestoformallianceswithaviewtodefeatingacandidatefromanothercommunity.Conflictattimesisalsointroducedtoantagonizecommunitiesinordertomakeitdifficultforalliancestobeformed.ThecurrentconflictbetweentheGabraandBoranainMoyaleconstituencyshouldbeseeninthislight.ItissaidthatthefightingwassparkedbyjostlingamongtheCounty’sGabraandBoranaeliteforthepoliticalpositionscreatedbythenewdevolvedstructureofgovernment.49

Ata local level, interclan tensionsoverpoliticalpoweralso triggerconflicts.Forexample,amongtheRendileinLaisamis,minorityclansareknowntobuildalliancesagainstthedominantones.50itisalsoarguedthatconflicthasbeenusedasaninstrumentforalteringdemographythroughforcefulremovalorrelocationofaparticularcommunityintheseconstituencieswithaviewtodisadvantagingacandidatebyerodinghis/hervoterbase.ThisisthelogicbehindtheensuingclashesbetweenGabraandBoranainMoyaleconstituencies.

48 Republic of Kenya, (2009), National Population and Housing Census, Nairobi: Government Printers49 Interview with Jattani Wario, a CSO representative in Moyale and corroborated by a statement by Mzalendo Kibunjia, the Chairperson of NCIC posted on http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?reportid=94789 accessed on 2nd February 2012 50 For instance, the Tubcha, Yuyam, Matarbah, Elegeza, Odhola and Nahgan clans have formed TUMEONA alliance against dominant clans



Security Dimensions

MarsabitCountyborderstheOromiaregionofEthiopiatotheNorth.Therehasbeenalongstandingrebellion inOromia, ostensibly due to claimsofmarginalizationof theOromo community by theEthiopianstate,whichisdominatedbynortherncommunities.Incidentally,theOromoareethnicallyrelatedtotheKenyanBoranaandtherefore,thishasraisedtheaccusationsbyEthiopianauthoritiesthatMarsabitandIsioloCountiesharborrebelbasesoftheOromo.ItisnotinfrequentforEthiopianmilitary tomake incursions inMarsabitCountyeither inpursuitofOromorebelsor inoperationsagainsttheserebelbases.

TheOromo rebellionhas led toproliferationof small arms in theCountyhencepredisposing theareatodeadlyconflicts. InthecurrentGabra-Boranaconflict,thereareallegationsthatthelattercommunity has elicited help of the armedOromo cousins against the former.51 The reduction ofsecuritythreatinthisareathereforepartlydependsontheresolutionoftheOromiaconflict.Cattlerustling isalsoacommonfeature,sometimes leadingto largescale inter-communalfighting. Therelativelylimitedpresenceofpoliceintheareaappearstoworsenthesituation.

Economic Dimensions

Marsabitisrankedasthe4thpoorestCountyinthecountry,withanestimatedpovertyrateof83.2%(KIBHS).ThisreflectsthegeneraltrendinthenorthernfrontierregionsofKenyathathadsufferedmarginalizationfromthecolonialtimes.However,withtheintroductionofresourcetransfersystemsfromthecentralgovernmentthroughsuchinstrumentsasLATFandCDF,theCountyhaswitnessedinflowofconsiderablefunds,whichaccountfor52%oftotalrevenue(CRA2012).Forinstance,intheFY2008/9,constituenciesintheCountyreceivedatotalofKshs541MfromCDF,makingtheamountthe4thhighestinthecountry,whereaslocalauthoritiesreceived185MfromLATF(31stinthecountry).

ItshouldhoweverbenotedthattheconstructionoftheIsiolo-Moyalehighwayislikelytoimprovelocaleconomyandopenuptheregiontotradewithotherpartsofthecountry.Theinfrastructureisalsolikelytoincreasethecapacityofauthoritiestorespondtoconflictswhenandastheyhappen.

Legal Dimensions

Communities inMarsabit have over timeusedwith varying degrees of success traditional justicemechanismstodealwiththeconflicts intheregion.Thesestructureshavenegotiatedandsettledinter-ethnic disputes arising from cattle rustling through application of restorative justice. Theypresent tomost accessible and convenient formsofdispute resolution, considering that theareahastwomagistratecourtslocatedinMarsabitandMoyaletowns.TheonlyHighCourtstationistobefoundineitherMeruorNyeri.Failurebytheformaljusticesystemtorecognizethelocaljusticemechanismsmeansthatthetwonormallyrunparallelandobliviousofeachother.Attitudestowardstheformaljusticesystemsarealsopoorasthelocalsperceivejudicialofficerspostedtotheseareasaseitherincompetentorindolent(havingbeentransferredtothesehardshipareasondisciplinarygrounds)52.Thisfurtheralienateslocalstotheformaljusticesystem.

The Provincial Administration and the District Peace Committees (DPCs) supplement avenues fordispute resolutions in the County. However, these organs have been accused of bias and lack ofneutralityinsomedisputesthusreducingtheiroveralleffectiveness.53

51 See Hassan Huka, Chief Seeks Foreign Refuge as Tribal Conflict Flares in Daily Nation Thursday December 29th 2011 edition, wherein Kenyan security forces were reported to have engaged in gun battles with Ethiopian tribal militia suspected to have been hired to back the warring communities52 Interview with local CSO leader - Ali Gorar53 For instance, the Moyale MP, Mohammed Ali was reported to have called for the transfer of Provincial Administration officials for laxity and bias in the current conflict in the area- see www.capitalfm.co.ke accessed on 29th Jan 2012



HistoricalinjusticesarisingfromtheShiftaWarinthe1960sandtheattendanthumanrightsabusesdominatelocaldiscoursesonpopulargrievancesthatunderliebitternessandfrustrationsofMarsabitresidentsagainstthecentralgovernment.TheTJRCprovidedanimportantavenueforventilationofthesegrievancesandthereforeitwillbeimportanttoseethekindofrecommendationsthatwillbemadeinaddressingtheselongstandingissues.

Social and Cultural Dimensions

CommunitiesresidinginMarsabitareknownforhabouringethnicrivalriesthatcouldeasilytriggerconflicts.Sometimestheseboiloverduringelectioncampaignswithnegativeconsequences.Itisnotuncommonforfightstobreakoutduetoethnicrivalry.54Inthepastsongswouldbeusedtoinciteviolence.

Marsabitalsohasaverylowenrolmentrateofgirlchildinbasiceducationat30%comparedtothenationalrateof74%.54bGenerallywomen’sparticipationindesicionmakingandpoliticsislow.


Marsabit County is largely an arid and semi-arid area with the exceptions of small patches ofmountainousarableareasincentralandnorthwesternparts.Assuch,naturalresource-basedconflictsoverpastureandwaterareprevalent.LandinMarsabitiscategorizedasTrustlandwhichisheldbythelocalauthoritiesintrustforthepeople.Assuch,thereisnoindividuallandtenure.Thispredisposestheareatoconflictsbetweennomadiccommunitiesaspropertyrightsarelooselydefined.TheCountyhasnomajorwatersourceandthereforetheresidentsrelyonwatersprings,undergroundwaterandseasonalrivers.Thesearecommunalresourceswhichcouldeasilytriggerconflictintimesofscarcity.Droughtsinducedbyclimatechangeincreasevulnerabilityandexarcerbateconflict.

Conclusion

Fromtheforegoing,itisevidentthatmanyfactorsappeartopredisposeMarsabitCountytoconflicts.ItisthereforerationaltocategorizetheCountyasahighriskconflictareaduetomultiplicityoftriggersandstructuralfactorsidentifiedinthisreport.

ISIOLO COUNTYIsioloCountybordersMarsabittotheNorth,SamburutotheWest,Mandera,WajirandGarissatotheEast,TanaRiver,MeruandLaikipiatotheSouth.TheCountyoccupies25,336squarekilometreswithapopulationof143,294accordingtothe2009Census.IsioloCountycomprisesofIsiolo-NorthandIsiolo-SouthConstituencies.Intermsofethnicdemography,IsiolocomprisesBorana,Samburu,Turkana,SomaliandMeruasthekeycommunities.


Thepoliticizationofconflict intheareabeganwiththeadventofmulitpartyismasthe-thenrulingpartyKANUtacitlygavesupporttolocalethnicwarlordsinabidtokeeptheoppositionatbay.55Thisconflictworsenedinin1999-2001astheKANUrulecameunderstrongchallengesandattheonsetofthe2002elections.

Since 2002, ethnic alliances have become an important determinant in political contests in the

54 Interview with CSO leader based in Marsabit town - Ali Gorar55 See for instance UNDP Kenya, Conflicts Dynamics in Isiolo, Samburu East and Marsabit South Districts, in Amani Papers, Vol 1 No3 of June 201054b http//www.hsnp.or.kr ( Hunger Safety Net Programme accessed 16th April 2012.



County. In theperiodpost2007elections, Isiolohas seenonandoffconfrontationsbetween thecommunitiesleadingtoadisarmamentcampaignbythemilitaryin2009.TheexercisewashoweverstoppedafterlocalleadersaccusedthegovernmentofunfairlytargetingtheSamburuhencemakingthemvulnerabletoattacksfromBorana.IttooktheinterventionofthePrimeMinisterRailaOdingafortheexercisetostop56.

Theconflictreareditsheadonceagaintowardstheendof2010andwastriggeredbyclashesoverpastureandwaterbetweentheBoranaandtheTurkana.Asaresult,displacementofpopulationstookplacewhichmayaffectthe2012elections.

Security Dimensions

Isioloisinhabitedprimarilybypastoralistcommunitiesandhencecattlerustlingiscommon.However,rustlingactivitiesusuallypittheBoranaandSamburu,withoccasional incidencesreportedagainsttheSomalisintheformerNorthEasternKenya.SmallarmsarealsoaproblemintheCounty.

Economic Dimensions

Inthefinancialyear2008/9,IsiolowasabletorealizerevenueofKshs1.013billionmakingitthe7thrichestCountyinKenya.57Outofthisrevenue,Kshs561millionandKshs270millionwereresourcetransfersfromCDFandLATFrespectively,whereasKshs193millionwasgeneratedlocallyfromlocaltaxes.EventhoughtheseresourcesportendasolutiontotherelativeunderdevelopmentwitnessedintheCounty,itcouldneverthelessbeasourceofconflict.

Isiolowasthesiteofintensivepetroleumexplorationin2009/10periodbyChineseCompanies,anditwaswidelyexpectedthattheareawouldyieldvastreservesofnaturalgas.Alreadytensionsweremountingintheareapriortothenewsthattheexplorationwasunsuccessful.ThereispotentialformineralconflictsintheCounty.

Isiolo town isearmarked tobeupgraded intoa resort city in linewith theVision2030blueprint.A railway linewill traverse the County from South Sudan to the port of Lamu. Thismakes Isiolopronetospeculationby landprospectors.However,most land in Isiolo isTrust landandthereforecommunallyowned.Another relateddevelopment is theemergenceof conservancies in theareawhich are supported by the government in order to boost tourism. This has resulted in tensionsespeciallyduringdryseasons58.

Legal Dimensions

IsioloCounty,justlikeMarsabit,sharesimilarjudicialhistoryaspartofthewiderNorthernFrontierDistrict(NFD).WithonlyoneMagistratescourtlocatedinIsiolo,residentshaveresortedtotraditionaljustice mechanisms for dispute resolutions. The Failure to prosecue those responsible for inter-communalviolencehaserodedtheconfidenceoflocalsintheformaljusticesystem.

Social and cultural Dimensions

Besidesethnicrivalries,thecultureofmoranismamongtheSamburuisofconcerntothesecuritysituationinIsiolo.AspartoftheSamburuculture,youngmenarerequiredtospend10yearsinthebush fending for themselvesafter initiationritesafterwhich theyareconsideredas juniorelders.Therefore,moransconstituteastandingarmyfortheSamburuandengageinrustlingactivitiesatthe

56 Ibid57 CRA 201158 See for instance Hassan Huka, Police seeking seven over role in Isiolo violence, in Daily Nation Tuesday November 1st 2011 edition



behestofthecommunityelders.59.Owingtothefactthatothercommunities(BoranaandSomali)lackthisculture,theyarevulnerabletoSamburuattacksastheydonothaveacommunaldefensivemechanism.


IsioloisbetterendowedwithpastureandwaterpointsthantheneighbouringCountiesandforthisreason,mostherdsmenconvergeattheCountyduringdryspellswiththeiranimals.Thisthereforepredisposestheareatopasture-basedconflicts.Toaddressthisproblem,apeaceaccordadoptedbythelocalDPCrequiredneighbouringcommunitiestoinformtheIsioloDPCoftheirintentiontobringintheircattleinordertoavertconflicts.60However,theSamburuhaveroutinelyignoredthisaccordthereby sparking some incidentsof clasheswith locals.Another stickingpointwas the fencingofcommunalgrazinglandsbyTurkanaresidinginIsiolo.ThiscreatedtensionswithBoranaherdsmen,whoviewedsuchfencingasactsofprovocation,consideringthattheentireCountyis landheldintrustby the localauthoritiesonbehalfof thecommunities.Thiswashowever resolvedwhenthegovernmentbannedfencingofland.61

Conclusion

PoliticalethnicizationofconflictsandconflictsduetonaturalresourcesremainthegreatestchallengesinIsioloCounty.Lookingatallfactorstogether,IsioloremainsaCountywithhighconflictriskinKenya.

MERU COUNTYSituatedintheformerEasternprovince,MeruCountyisknownforitscloseproximitytotheMountKenya. The County is relatively small covering only 6,936 square kilometerswith a population of1,356,301people.Itcomprisessevenconstituenciesi.e.NorthImenti,Igembe,Ntonyiri,SouthImenti,TiganiaEast,CentralImentiandTiganiaWestandthusmakingtheCountypoliticallysignificantduetothesheernumbersofMPsitsendstotheNationalAssembly.TheCountyisdominatedbytheMeruethnicgroup,withmotleymigrantcommunitiesconstitutinganinsignificantminority.


Traditionally, theMeru community has organized itself politicallywith the Council of Elderswithrepresentationfromvariousclans,theNjuriNcheke,attheapex.Thus,clanidentitystillremainsanimportantaspectofMeru’spolitical life.ThedominantclansaretheImentifoundinMerucentralandhavedominatedthepoliticalarenaintheCounty.62ItisthefearoftheImentidominationthatpromptedpoliticiansfromtheIgembeandTiganiatoopposethecreationoftheMeruCountyandthusmobilizedtheirsupportedtoopposetheNewConstitutionduringthe2010referendum.

Security Dimensions

SecurityremainsanissueofconcerninareasthatborderIsioloandWajironthenorthernpartofMeru.IncidencesofcattlerustlinghavebeenreportedintheseareaswithregularityaspartofthewiderpastoralistconflictsystemofthenorthernmarginalareasofKenya.Suchincidenceshowevercoulddestabilizetheregionifthescaleandintensityisnotchecked.

59 UNDP Kenya, 201060 Ibid61 Ibid62 Other clans include Igoji, Tigania, Miutuni, Igembe, Mwimbi and Muthambi, Chuka and Tharaka



Economic Dimensions

MeruCountyisconsideredamongthemostprosperousinthecountry.Povertylevelsareat28.3%-the5th lowest inthecountry(CRA,2011).Thedistrict isendowedwithhighpotentialarable land,tourismsitesintheMeruNationalParkandsoundinfrastructure.However,dependenceonresourcetransfers fromthecentralgovernment ishighatover50%.Riskofpolitical competitionbasedoncontrolofresourcesishoweverlow.

Legal dimensions

Whereas the formal justicesystem iswellentrenched inMeruasevidencedby thepresenceofaHighCourtStationand6magistratecourts,theNjuriNchekestillplaysaroleinprovidingavenuesforalternativedisputeresolution,especiallywithregardtocustomarymattersandland.Risksassociatedwithlegalfactorsarehoweverlow.


Clan rivalriesmay present a challengewith regards to ensuring harmonious relations among theMeru.Besides,Meruareapatriarchalsocietyandthereforegenderrelationsexhibitstrainsduetodominationofwomenbymen.Womenplaymarginalrolesinpoliticsandtraditionallydonotownland.TheyouthbulgeinthecountryisalsoprevalentinMeruandthismayposeachallenge.


PerhapslandscarcityposesthegreatestenvironmentalchallengeforMeruCounty.Withapopulationdensityof196personspersquarekilometerpressureonthelandresourceispiling.InMeruNorthforinstance,landhasbeenidentifiedasoneofthemajorcausesofconflict63.Significantportionoflandintheareaisnottitledandthereforeisgovernedundercustomarylaw.Thismeansthatinsuchapatriarchalsociety,landiseffectivelyownedandcontrolledbymen.Accesstocreditisimpossiblesinceonecannotuselandascollateral.Attemptsbygovernmenttoinitiatetheprocessoftitlinglandhavehitsnagsduetopersistentpublicrejectionofadjudicationcommitteessetupforthatpurpose64.Unlessasolutionisfoundtothisproblem,itmaycreatesocialproblemsintheCounty.

AnothermanifestationoftheproblemistheexistenceofsquattersintheTimauregion.ThesquattersettlementsdatebacktocolonialperiodswhenAfricanlabourerswereallowedtosquatonfringesofsettlerfarms.Afterindependence,thegovernmentdidnotresolvetheproblemandhencepersistenceofsquattersettlementinthisarea.Unlesstheissueisresolved,thegrowingsquatterpopulationcouldposeapoliticalrisk.

Conclusion

Perhapsthemostsignificantconflictfactorsthatrequireclosemonitoringpriorto2012electionsareinter-clanpoliticalrivalryaswellasthelandissue.Otherwise,Merupresentsrelativelyminimalrisksinsofaraselectoralviolenceandconflictisconcerned.

THARAKA-NITHI COUNTYTharaka-NithiislocatedsouthofMeruCountyandoccupiesanareaof2,639squarekilometerswithapopulationof365,330persons.ItwascarvedoutofthelargerMerudistrictintheearly1990sbytheMoiadministration,followingagitationbylocalleaderswhofeareddominationbytheirnortherly

63 See Ministry of State for the Development of Northern Kenya and Arid Land, Arid Lands Resource Management Project II Meru North District- Annual Report 2007/8at pg 6 64 Ibid



cousins. TheCountyextends from the slopesofMountKenyaall thewaydown to thearid landsborderingtheformerNorthEasternProvince,henceitshowsahighdegreeofclimaticvariability.TheCountyisprimarilyoccupiedbyTharakaandChukasub-tribesoftheMeru.TheCountycomprisesTharakaandNithiconstituencies.


Liketheirnortherlyneighbours,theresidentsofTharaka-Nithitaketheirclanidentitiesseriouslyandthisplaysanimportantroleinthepoliticallifeoftheirsociety.However,themostsignificantcauseofconflictintheCountyhasbeenthecontestationofpoliticalandadministrativeboundariesbetweenthe Tharaka and Igembe. This dispute surfaced in 1994 and erupted into violent confrontationbetweenthetwocommunitiesin1996,resultinginthegovernmentissuingaministerialstatementsayingthatthedisputehadbeenreferredtotheNjuriNchekeforarbitration.65

Thematterhoweverhaspersistedwithnosolutionthusleadingtothedeadlyclashesin1997priortotheelectionsthatwereheldthatyear.Thematteragainflaredupin2003followingpublicutterancesby local politicians that bordered on incitement. During the consultations that were recentlyconductedbytheIndependentElectoralandBoundariesCommission(IEBC),thematterresurfacedwiththeresidentsofTharakaurgingtheCommissiontoresolvethematteronceandforall.Thusfromaconflictanalysisstandpoint,thisissuecouldeasilyprovokepre-electionviolenceunlessitisresolvedinanauthoritativemanner.

Security dimensions

Thelow-lyingareasoftheCountythatbordertheIsioloandGarissaarepronetobanditryandcattlerustling.ThesecurityrisksandchallengesfacedbyresidentsinthisareaaresimilartothosethatfacethenorthernpartsofMeru.

Economic Dimensions

Unliketheirnorthernneighbours,theTharaka-Nithiarenotasprosperouswithpovertyratesat48.7%(CRA,2012).TheupperslopesoftheCountyhavebetterclimaticconditionsandthereforesupportteaandcoffeefarming,whereasthelowlyingareasarearidandthereforesupportsubsistencefarmingaswellaspastoralism.TheresourcetransfersfortheFY2008/9amountedtoKshss339M(CRA,2012)againstmodestlocalrevenueshowingahigherdependenceonsuchtransfers.

Legal Dimensions

Tharaka-NithicurrentlyhasoneSeniorMagistratesCourtinMarimati.MostcasesarerefrerredtoChukaorMeru.Thereforethetraditionaldisputeresolutionmechanismsarestrongespeciallywithregardtocustomarymattersandland.Risksassociatedwithlegalmattersarelow.

Social and Cultural Dimensions

TheTharakashareasimilarsocialculturalprofilewithMeruCounty.Thepatriachialsystemisheavilyentrenchedandmendominatethesocialscene.Youngpeoplearealsodominatedoverbytheoldandthoughtheyaremore,theirimpactonsocialissuesiscurtailedbytradition.


LandrelateddisputesarealsoprevalentinTharaka,primarilyduetopopulationpressureandalsoduethefactthatsignificantportionoflandstillremainsundercustomarytenure.Thishasmadelandamajorcampaignissueowingtotheslowprogressofadjudicationandtitlingofland.65 See Kenya National Assembly, Official Records (Hansard) November 1996, Government Printer, 1996 at pg 2471



Conclusion

ConflictrisksinTharaka-NithiCountyareslightlyhigherthaninMeruowingtothepotentialforaborderdispute,securitysituationinthepastoralistareasandland-relatedconflicts.

EMBU COUNTYEmbu County is situated in themiddle of the former Eastern Province and covers 2,818 squarekilometerswithapopulationof519,212persons(2009Census).TheCountyisinhabitedbytheEmbu,MbeereandKambaandKikuyucommunitiesandhencepresentsacosmopolitancomplexion.TheCountywas createdby amalgamating the former Embu andMbeere districts that had been splitinthe1990sbytheformerpresidentMoi’sKANUadministration.TheCountycomprisesManyatta,Runyenjes,GachokaandSiakagoconstituencies.


InthecosmopolitanareasofMbeere,ifthecompetitionforpoliticalpositionsbecomesintense,risksforconflictswillincreasehencetherewillbeneedtomonitortheseareas.

Security Dimensions

UnlikeTharaka-NithiandMeruCounties,cattlerustlingisnotamajorissueinEmbu,owingtolimitedboundariesandinteractionwiththeconflict-proneareas.However,theareafacesalatentMungikithreat,consideringthatthehotbedoftheproscribedsectisintheneighbouringKirinyagadistrict.Itispossibleforyouthtobeenlistedinviolentcampaignsandhencethisriskoughttobeaddressed.

Economic Dimensions

Poverty levels inEmbuarerelativelyhighat42%,whereasdependenceonresourcetransfersalsoremainshigh(theregionreceivedKshs519millionasdevolvedfundsfromthecentralgovernmentintheFY2008/9).

Legal Dimensions

AccesstoformalsystemofjusticeiscommendableastheCountyhasaHighCourtstationthatwaspreviouslyservingboththeformerEasternandNorthEasternProvinces.MagistratecourtsarefoundinEmbuandRunyenjes.


Eventhough theCounty is inhabitedby4differentcommunities, there isnothing tosuggesthighlevelsoftribalhatred.Thesecommunitieshaveco-existedpeacefullyovertheyears.

Environmental Conditions

LandisakeyissueinthelowerpartsoftheCounty.InpartsofGachokaConsituencythatarepartoftheMweaRiceScheme,landisyettobetitledandhencethishasbeenacampaignissueforyears.LikeTharaka-Nithi,thisisamatterthatmeritsattention.

Conclusion

Conflict risks in Embu are moderate, considering that the County is more cosmopolitan that itsnorthernneighbours.



KITUI COUNTYKituiCountyneighboursMachakosCountytotheeast,occupyingamassive30,496squarekilometersandapopulationof1,012,709persons. It comprises the formerKitui andMwingidistrictswithamono-ethnic(Kamba)demographiccomposition.Thereare6constituenciesintheCountywhichare:MwingiNorth,MwingiSouth,KituiEast,KituiWest,KituiCentral,MutitoandMutomo.

Political Dimension

KituiCountyishometotwopoliticalgiantsofcontemporaryKambapolitics-VicePresidentKalonzoMusyokaandHonCharityNgilu.SincebothenjoyconsiderablepoliticalfollowingwithintheCounty,and have been known to take opposing sides, their supportersmay clash during campaigns andvoting.InJune2011,clashesbetweensupportersofthetwopoliticiansoccurredwhenNgilutouredKalonzo’sMwingiNorth constituency in the companyof politicians allied toher.66 if elections arecloselycontested,theremayberiskofelectionrelatedviolenceandthereforemeritsfortiscountytobecloselymonitored.

Security Dimensions

Liketheupperpartsofeasternprovince,theareasborderingGarrisaandTharaka-NithiCountiesarepronetocattlerustling,eventhoughtheintensitymaynotbeashigh.LimitedsecuritypresenceintheareaandworseningconflictsituationinSomaliacouldworsenthesituationthough.

Economic Dimensions

EventhoughpovertylevelsinKituiarehigh(at63.5%),theregionhasahighmineralwealthpotentialfollowingdiscoveryofvastquantitiesofcoal,ironandcement.Alreadythereareconcernsthattheagreement signed by the Chinesemining company and the government over coal exploitation isshroudedinsecrecyandthattheenvironmentalimplicationsofthesamehavenotbeensufficientlydisclosed to residents.67 Issuance ofmining rights in Kitui by the County Council has to two rivalcementcompanies,BamburiCementLtdandAthiRiverMiningLtdhasledtowranglingamongthetwocompaniesaswellasamonglocalleaders.68Todate,thedisputeremainsunresolvedandeffortstoseekpresidentialandcourtinterventionhavenotbornefruit.69Thisaspectneedtobemonitoredasapotentialcauseofconflict.

Legal Dimensions

Access to justice inKitui is rather limitedowing to inadequate infrastructureasevidencedby theabsenceofahighcourtstationandfewmagistratescourt(inKituiandMwingitownsonly)servingsuchahighpopulation.However, traditionaldisputeresolutionmechanismsarerifeandstrong inruralpartsoftheCounty


Thesocial-culturaldimension,thereisprevalenceofpovertyanditsattendanteffects.Thoughalotofpremiumisplacededucationandmostofthecommunitymembershavegotstrongreligiousbeleifs,there is incidenceofabusetothegirl-child. Thisnotwithstanding,theparticipationofwomeninpoliticalaffairsisquitehighintheCounty.

66 See Mutua P, Many injured as Ngilu and Kalonzo supporters clash, in The Standard, 24th June 2011 67 See Sunday Nation 30th October 201168 See Kenya National Assembly, Official Records (Hansard) Feb 2009, Government Printers 2009 at pg 24-569 The matter is listed in court as ELC/JR No 84 of 2007




ScrambleformineralresourcesinKituiislikelytoemergeascriticalfactors.Thiswillbetriggeredbydisagreementsovercompulsoryacquisitionandcompensationofresident’slandastheymakewayforminingfields.Environmentalproblemsassociatedwithcoalminingandopaqueresourcesharingagreementswill alsobring to foredisputesoverpublicwelfareandbenefit,which ifnotproperlyresolved,thismayfomentwidespreadgrievancespeculiartominingareasintheCounty.

LanddisputesowingtocustomarytenureunderwhichmostlandfallsaswellaspresenceofsquattersinMwingiNorthandKituiwestarelikelytoremainasriskfactorsespeciallyinaffectedconstituencies.Human-wildlifeconflictsneargameparksalsoposearisk,albeitamoderateone.

Conclusion

TheaboveanalysesplaceKituiCountyasamoderatepoliticalriskareaandthereforeshouldwarrantclosemonitoringintherunuptotheupcomingelections

MACHAKOS COUNTYMachakosCountyislocatedinlowerpartoftheformerEasternprovince,andcovers6,208squarekilometers with a high population of 1,098,584 people (2009 Census). With the exception ofcosmopolitan Athi River/Mavoko area, the rest of the County is occupied by Kamba community.TheCountycomprisessixconstituencies,whichare:Masinga,Kangundo,Kathiani,MachakosTown,MwalaandYatta.Owingtothishighnumberofseats,theCountyispoliticallysignificant.TheCountyisclosetoNairobi,withpartsofitslandcomprisingthelargerNairobiMetropolitan.


UnlikemostpartsofEasternprovince,politics inMachakos is largelyunaffectedbyclanorethnicconsiderations.ThiscanbeattributedtothediminishedclanidentityandauthorityofclanspartlyduetoinfluenceofChristianityandmodernity.Politicsratherisorganizedaroundpersonalitiesandpoliticalparties.Since1997,CharityNgiluandKalonzoMusyokahavedominatedthepoliticalscene,withpoliticalgroupingsandfactionsrevolvingaroundthetwo.Iftheelectionsarecloselycontested,theremaybeariskofelectionrelatedviolence.

Security Dimensions

Due to proximity to Nairobi and the relative high level of urbanization, Machakos experiencesheightenedcriminality,whichhoweverisnotpoliticallydirectedormotivated.70

Economic Dimensions

PovertylevelsinMachakosarerelativelyhighat59.6%largelyduetopooragriculturalperformanceand productivity in the vastmarginal areas. The County however is less dependent on resourcetransfers fromcentralgovernment (transfers constitute less than40%of revenue)and thushasastrong revenuebaseowing tourbanizationandpresenceof the rich industrial zoneofAthiRiver.ResourcetransfersneverthelessstandatKshs479m.

MachakoshashadconsiderableproblemswithlandespeciallyinYimitheu,Syokimauandafairshareof squatters.Secondly,Machakoswillhost theKonzaTechnopolis,an InformationCommunicationTechnology(ICT)industrialcity,whichisoneoftheVision2030flagshipprojects.Already,anintensivelandscrambleisunderwayasKenyansattempttoownlandaroundtheproposedsite.Oncethecity

70 Accordingly to CRA 2012, rate of urbanization in Machakos stands at 52%



isupandrunning,itmayupsetthelocalpoliticaldynamicsunlessadifferentpoliticalentityiscreatedtomanageit.

Legal dimensions

AccesstojusticeinMachakosisrelativelyhigh,withthepresenceofaHighCourtstationinMachakostownandmagistratecourtsinKangundo,YattaandTawa.Traditionalsystemsofjusticehaveallbuteroded.


SignificantsocialandculturalfactorsthatmaytriggerconflictintheCountyarethosethatmaybeassociatedwithproblemsofurbanizationsuchasurbanpovertyandyouthunemployment.LikeinKituiCounty,theparticipationofwomeninsocialaffairsishigh.


LandinsomepartsofMachakosisstillasourceofpotentialconflict.InMasingaconstituency,thereare considerable populations of squatters residing in former settler ranches. So significant is thevotingpowerof these squatters that theyareable to influencewhoeverbecomesanMP in thisconstituency.Pocketsofsquattersarealsotobe found inMachakosTownandYattaconstituency.RecentdemolitionofhousesinSyokimauareabroughttothelimelight,theprecariouslandownershipsituationinMavokoarea,whereduetoyearsofcorruptionsinlanddealings,unsuspectingcitizensweresoldpublicland.Recoveryofthislandislikelytobeahotcampaignissuewhichmeritsclosemonitoring.

Conclusion

Land-related conflicts and political competition for control of resources in devolved structure ofgovernance is likely tomake theupcomingelections intense andhence attractmoderate risksofincidencesofviolence.

MAKUENI COUNTYMakueniCountyislocatedonthesoutherntipoftheformerEasternProvinceandmeasures8,009squarekilometerswithapopulationof884,527(2009Census).LikeKitui, it is largelymono-ethnic(Kamba), with few pockets of diverse migrant populations. The County comprises Kilome, Kaiti,Makueni,KibweziandMbooniConstituencies.


MakuenisharessimilarpoliticalrisksandprofileasMachakosCounty.PoliticalconflictscouldpossiblyemanatefromcompetitionbetweensupportersorsympathisersofKalonzoandNgiluiftheelectionsarecloselycontested.

Economic Dimensions

Povertyratesstandat64.1%whichisthehighestintheeasternregion.However,theCountyattractsconsiderable resource transfers (approximately Kshs 489million in FY 2008/9) owing to the highpoverty levels. The two stable economic pockets ofMbooni and Kilungu are not well tapped toprovidesupporttothelargerexpanseoftheCounty.



Legal Dimensions

Makuenihasnohighcourtstationand iscurrentlyservedbymagistratecourts inMakindu,WoteandKilungu.Traditionaldisputeresolutionmechanismsthroughsurvivingclanstructuresdoexistinremoteareasandhenceserveasimportantavenuesforredresswhereformaljusticesystemsdonotexist.


SomelevelsofsocialandculturaldifferencesexistbetweentheKambaandMaasaialongthecommonborderthatrunsfromKonzatoMtitoAndei.Sometimetensionsoccasionallyboilupbetweenthesecommunitiesbutrisksassociatedwiththesedifferencesremiallow.


LandproblemspersistinMakueniwithasizeablesquatterpopulationresidinginMakueniandKibweziconstituencies.Theseportendsomepoliticalrisksasthelandissueislikelytobepoliticizedbecomepotential conflict triggers.Human-wildlife conflicts inareasnearTsavoNationalParkhavebeenasourceofconcernformanyyears.

Conclusion

Makueniposesmoderateriskswithregardtopoliticalconflictandthereforecouldmeritmonitoringastheelectionsapproach.

NYANDARUA COUNTYNyandarua County is found in the north-western part of the former Central Province, borderingLaikipia,Nakuru,Kiambu,Nyeri andMurang’aCounties. Itmeasures3,245 squarekilometersandholdsapopulationof596,268(Census2009).ItcomprisesfourconstituencieswhichareKingangop,Ol-Kalou,NdaragwaandKipipiri.ItishometotheKikuyu,Maasai,KalenjinandSamburucommunities.


LikeotherpartsofCentralKenya, in2007generalelections,Nyandaruavotedoverwhelmingly forPresidentKibakiinthepresidentialpollsbutexhibitedpoliticalpluralisminthemannerinwhichtheyvotedforparliamentarycandidatesinthepreviouselections.Thisindicatesthewillingnessofthevoterstoscrutinizeandjudgecandidatesonthebasisoftheirpersonalattributesandrepresentations.ItisthereforeexpectedthatparliamentarypollsintheCountywillremaincompetitivewithamoderateriskofconflictintheforthcomingelections

The IEBC has proposed to curve out a new constituency- Ol-Jorok fromOl-Kalou andNdaragwa.Disagreementshavearisenamongpoliticiansoverthedecisiontotransfersomevotingareasfromtheoldconstituenciestotheproposedconstituency.Thiscouldprovideconditionsforconflictifthematterisnotresolved.

NyandaruaishometoInternallyDisplacedPersons(IDPs)whomovedintotheareafromRiftValleyasaresultofthePEV.TheseIDPsaretobefoundintheMawingocampnearNyahururutown.Thesituationneedstobecloselymonitored.

Security Dimensions

ThenorthernareasofNyandaruaCountythatborderRiftValleyCountiesofLaikipiaandNakuruare



pronetocattlerustlingduetoproliferationofsmallarmsinthearea.TherealsohistoricalgrievancesheldbytheMaa-speakingcommunities(suchastheSamburuandMaasai)intheseareasthatthelanduponwhichtheKikuyucommunityhassettledwastraditionallytheirs.Thiscouldprovidegroundsforpolitical incitementunless thematter is resolvedwithin the contextofongoing truth, justiceandreconciliationprocess.

NyandaruaexperiencedviolentcrackdownoftheMungikisectbysecurityforcesinthe2008-9period.ItisthereforescarredbytheMungikiexperience.EventhoughtheMungikithreatappearstohavebeenneutralized,thepotentialforremobilizationofsectmembersforpoliticalcampaignsexistsandthereforeshouldbemonitored.

Legal Dimensions

TheCountyisservedbyasinglemagistratecourtstationinNyahururu.ThismayposechallengesintermsofaccesstojusticeoverelectoraldisputessincethenearesthighcourtstationisinNakuru.

Economic Dimensions

NyandaruaisthepoorestCountyincentralKenyawithpovertylevelsnowestimatedat46.3%(CRA,2012). This is attributed towidespreadpoverty conditions in the semi-arid areas in thenorthernpartoftheCountyaswellasovercrowdingconditionsinthesouthernpartswhereitisincreasinglybecomingdifficulttoexploitfullpotentialofreducingagriculturallandholdings.Theseconditionsmaycreateanenvironmentconducivetoconflicts

Social Dimensions

Thereareareaswithpocketsofethnictensionsemanatingfromhistoricallandgrievancesalludedtoabove.Unlessresolved,theseareasmaycreateconflictconditions


SignificantenvironmentaldegradationisevidentinmostpartsoftheCounty.Inthelowerreachesof the County, high population density has put pressure on decreasing landholdings leading tounsustainablepatternsoflanduse.Landlessnessisalsoasignificantfactorwhichhasrecentlybeenworsenedby the influxof IDPs in thecountry.Human-wildlifeconflictsarecommonon theareasborderingtheAberdaresNationalParkwhichledtofencingoffofthepark.

Conclusion

Conflict risk in Nyandarua can be termed as moderate. The key factors may include politicalcompetition,povertyoccasionedbylandlessnessandunsustainablelanduseandinsecurity.

NYERI COUNTYNyeriCountyis locatedinthenortherntipofCentralKenyaandbordersKirinyaga,Meru,Laikipia,NyandaruaandMurangaCounties.Itmeasures3,337squarekilometerswithapopulationof693,558(2009Census).ItispopulatedbytheKikuyuthoughotherethnicgroupsaretobefoundinthemajorcommercialcenters.Thereare6constituenciesintheCountythatareNyeriTown,Mukurweini,Tetu,Othaya,KieniandMathira


Nyeriisaverypolitically-significantCountyforvariousreasons.First,theCountyisthehomeofthe



incumbentPresident,whoisalsotheMPforOthaya.Inthesunsetyearofhispresidencyandelectivepolitics,theracetosucceedtheMwaiKibakiinhisconstituencyhasbeguninearnest.

Secondly,theCountyhasahighnumberofconstituenciescomparedtootherCountiesthatmaybemorepopulous.Thevotingpatternsthatemergedinthelastelectionsindicatethatthevotersarenotbeholdentoanypoliticalpartyperse.Hencewiththiskindofpluralismdisplayedbyvoters,politicalpartiescompetefreely.

Partyrivalrieshaveincreasedaswasevidencedinarecentby-electionwherethePresidentwasforcedtocomedowntohisconstituencyandcampaignforacouncilorafteritemergedthatthecandidatefromhispartyPNUwaslikelytolosetoanothersupportedbyGrandNationalUnityParty(GNU).71

Thirdly,theCountyishometoconstituencieswithlonghistoriesofviolentelections.InMathiraforinstance,violencehasfeaturedineveryelectionduetolocalrivalriesbetweencandidates.Politicianshaveconsistentlyusedyouthtocausemayhemandintimidatetheirrivals.Thesamehashappenedin Nyeri town andMukurweini. This culture of violence can be traced to the 1980swhen KANUattemptedtoimposecandidatesintheareainabidtocurtailtheinfluenceofMwaiKibakiwhoatthattimewastheVicePresidentandMoi’sdeputy72.Thelocalsreactedangrilytothesemovesandhenceelectionswereroutinelymarredbyviolence.

Security Dimensions

Likeotherpartsof centralKenya,Nyeriwasafflictedby theMungikiproblem,whichhadcreatedinsecurity in the area. This had raised tensions in the area following bizarre killings and revengeattacks.However,followingthemassivecrackdownonmembersofthesect,theproblemseemstohavesubsided.Howeverthethreatofre-emergenceofMungikistillremains.

Economic Dimensions

Nyeriisrelativelyprosperouswithpovertyratesat32.7%.ThemainstayoftheCountyisagriculture,livestock,quarrying,tradeandtourism.TheCountyreceivedatotalofKshs562MasdevolvedfundsintheFY2008/9.Nyerihasarelativelyhighpopulationandsignificantlyhigherpovertyascomparedtoitsimmediateneighbours.

Legal Dimensions

Thereare3magistratecourtstationsandonehighcourtstationsintheCounty.Tothisextent,accesstoelectoraljusticeissignificantandcouldbeusefulinaddressingelectoraldisputes.

Social Dimensions

TheCountyhaswomen strongly involved inpublic affairs.Ove theyears, therehasbeenalotofemphasisonthegirl-childwhiletheboychildhasreceivedlittleattention:intheeducationsectorforinstance,enrollmentofboyshasgonedown73.NyeriCountyhasoflatebeenmakingnewswithregardstodrinkingproblemsaffectingmen.Thishasledtostrainedgenderrelationsaswomenarebeingstereotypedashusbandbatterers.


71 The PNU candidate narrowly won the seat, indicating that the influence of the retiring president on local politics is not something that people will take for granted72 Interview with a local resident 73 http://www.shrenpublishers.co.ke/education-watch/74-issue-01/269-boy-child-education-in-Central-under -threat



NyeriisgrapplingwithnegativeeffectsofclimatechangeasevidencedbyworseningofdryconditionsandpersistenceofdroughtintherelativedrierKieniconstituency.Thismaydisruptlivelihoodsduringtheelectionperiod,thusmakingtheaffectedpopulationsvulnerabletomanipulationbypoliticians.There arepockets of landless in Kieni constituency andefforts to evict the squatters could igniteviolenceinthearea.PartoftheCountyborderingMt.Kenyahasovertheyearsexperiencedhuman-wildlifeconflictaswellasconflictsbetweensedentaryfarmersandpastoralistsoverpasture.Theseconflictsoughttobemonitoredtoavoidasituationwheretheybecomedisruptivefactorsduringtheelection.

Conclusion

Nyeripresentsahighconflictriskarea,duetotheimpendingretirementofthepresident,thehistoryofviolenceinsomeoftheconstituenciesandstrainedgenderrelations.Allconstituenciesmaybepotentialhotspots

KIRINYAGA COUNTY

Kirinyaga County borders Embu, Nyeri, Meru and Murang’a Counties. It measures 1479 squarekilometerswithapopulationof528,054(2009Census).TheCountyisdominatedbytheKikuyuwhospeaktheNdia-dialectthoughwithminorityKamba,EmbuandAmberecommunitiesresidingintheMwearicesettlementscheme.Ithas4constituencieswhichareGichugu,Ndia,KirinyagaCentralandMwea.


Twopresidentialaspirants,MarthaKaruaandUhuruKenyattaarecurrentlycompetingforsupportin thisCountyand this is tending topolariseopinionswithareaMPs takingsides.Thishas led tointensification of local rivalries which evidently played out during the recently-held KirinyagaConstituencyby-electionatwhichaUhuruKenyatta-alliedcandidate(JosephGitari)wonoveraMarthaKarua-alliedcandidate(DanielKaraba).Thecampaignsduringtheby-electionwerecharacterizedbytensionswithsomeincidencesofviolence,indicatingthelevelofstakesthatweremanifestduringthecontest.

Gichuguconstituencyhasalonghistoryofelectoralviolence.Thisisassociatedwithdeeppoliticalrivalrythatcandidatesintheareahavedemonstratedovertheyears.74Youtharenormallymobilizedbythecandidatestointimidaterivalsandthisoftenleadstoviolence.Thishasthereforeledtoanentrenchedcultureofelectoralviolence.UnlesstheIEBCtakesdecisivestepstodealwiththeissue,violencemayresurfaceintheforthcomingelections.

Security Dimensions

KirinyagawasextensivelyaffectedbytheMungikimenace.Themenacewascharacterizedbyattacksandcounterattacksbythegangandmembersoflocalvigilantegroupsaswellasshootingofmembersofthegangbysecurityforces.Inoneoftheworstkillings,about28villagerslosttheirlivesafteranightattackbysuspectedmembersoftheMungiki.WhatfollowedwasanorgyofkillingsthateventuallyledtotheexpulsionofthegangfromtheupperpartsoftheCounty.PocketsoftheganghoweveraretobefoundinthelowerpartsoftheconstituencyinMweaconstituency.Thegangposesathreatinthenextelectionsinthesensethatitsmemberscouldbemobilizedbycandidatesandusedincausingviolenceforpoliticalpurposes.

74 According to a civil society leader, violence in the constituency has been a hallmark of the area since the 1980s during the NJiru v Njinu rivalry and persists to date



Economic Dimensions

KirinyagaCountyisthethirdwealthiestCountyinthecountry,withpovertyratesestimatedat25%.Its mainstay is agriculture (tea, coffee and horticulture). It has impressive human developmentindicatorsandhasbeenreceivingconsiderabletransfersfromthecentralgovernment.TheCountyalsoisendowedwithgoodinfrastructure.

Legal dimensions

TheCountyisservedbyMagistratecourtsinKerugoya,BarichoandWangurustations.TheHighCourtatNyeriservesthearea.Thisthereforeconstraintsaccesstojusticewhichmayhavedireconsequencesforresolutionofelectoral-relateddisputes.

Social dimensions

There exist some social differences between the Kikuyu from other areas and their Kirinyagacounterparts. The declaration ofMartha Karua’s presidential candidature has been welcomed insomequarterswithintheCountyandisviewedasanattemptbytheNdiapeopletoovercomeyearsofdominationbytheirlargerKikuyucousins.Thesedifferencesarelikelytoplayoutduringthenextelections


WaterandlandconflictsareprevalentinthelowersectionsoftheCounty.MweaconstituencyhoststheMwea rice irrigation scheme,which is the largest and among the oldest in the country. Thescheme is plaguedby landdisputes and thesehavebeenusedas campaign fodderbypoliticiansin every electionwith sometimes violent consequences. The scheme is also riddenwith conflictsbetweenupstreamanddownstreamcommunitiesoverwateruserrights.Withreductioninflowofwatersinthelocalrivers,theseconflictsarelikelytointensifyandcouldthereforeassumeapoliticaldimensioninthecomingperiod.

Conclusion

KirinyagaCountyevincesahighlevelofconflictriskinCentralKenya.ThehistoryofviolenceinGichuguandtheconflictfactorsprevalentinMweaconstituencymakesthetwothemostsignificanthotspotsthatmeritcloserattentionintermsofmonitoring

MURANG’A COUNTYMurang’aCountyissituatedattheheartoftheformerCentralProvince.Itmeasures2,559squarekilometerswithapopulationof942,841.TheCountyisdominatedbytheKikuyucommunity,withmigrant communities found in large scale farms in the Gatanga and Makuyu area. There are 4constituenciesintheCounty:theyare,Maragua,Kiharu,Kangema,Mathioya,Gatanga,KandaraandKigumo.


Murang’aCountymayexperiencepoliticaltensionscharacterizedbydifferencesbetweenthepoliticalsupportersofPeterKenneth,MarthaKaruaandUhuruKenyattawhoarepresidentialaspirants.

InMaraguaandKandara,thelandissueisrifeowingtopresenceofsquattersingovernmentreserveland.Thismattertendstoassumepoliticaldimensionsduringelectionsandhencecouldbeasourceofconcern.



Security Dimensions

Murang’awasahotbedofMungikiactivitiesuntiltheLateInternalSecurityMinister,JohnMichukidecidedtocrackdownonthegroup.Asaresult,thepoliceroundedupandshotsuspectedMungikimembers.Forthisreason,thegovernmentwasroundlycondemnedforextra-judicialkillings.Inspiteofthiscrackdown,itisnotcleariftheMungikithreathasbeeneliminatedandthereforepossibilitiesofthegroupbeingmobilizedforpoliticalreasonsinthenextelectionsremains.ThefactthatMathioyahasinpastelectionssufferedfromelectoralviolencemaypointtopossibilitiesofrecurrenceofthesame.

Economic dimensions

Poverty levels inMurang’aarerelatively lowat29.9%.TheCountydependsmainlyonagricultureand trade foreconomicoutput.Throughdevolved funds, theCounty receivedKshs448million intheFY2008/9andhencethiswill likelyincreasewiththeestablishmentoftheCountygovernmentonaccountoftherelativelyhighpopulationinthearea.ThiswilldefinitelyincreasetheintensityofpoliticalcompetitionwithintheCountyandthereforemeritsclosermonitoring

Legal Dimensions

TheCountyisservedby4magistratecourtstations-Murang’a,Kigumo,KandaraandKangemacourts.However,intheabsenceofaHighCourt,onemaysaythataccesstojusticeremainsachallengeandthismayaffecttheresolutionofelectoraldisputes.

Social dimensions

The major risks under this category include the targeting of minority communities; alcoholism;unemploymentofyouth;thejiggersmanaceandalsothecriminalityofMungikiamongothers.


TheonlyissuerelatedtothisdimensionistheexistenceofpocketsofsquattersintheCounty,particularlyinMaraguaandKandaraarea.Conflictsrelatedtolandmayaffecttheelectoralenvironmentintheaffectedareas

Conclusion

EventhoughtheconflictriskinthisCountyisnothigh,thereisneedtomonitorMathioyaandGatangaconstituenciesduetothehistoryofelectoralviolence.

KIAMBU COUNTY

KiambuCountyneighboursNairobicityandisamongthelargestCountiessituatedintheformerCentralProvince.Itoccupies2,543squarekilometersbutwithahighpopulationof1,623,282(2009Census).TheKikuyucommunity isdominantintheCountythoughwithahighrateofurbanization(60%oftheentirepopulationlivesinurbanareas),theCountyhasattractedmembersofothercommunitiesaswell. ItbordersKajiado,Muranga,NyandaruaandMachakos.ThecurrentconstituenciesintheCountyareLari,Kiambaa,Limuru,Kabete,GatunduNorth,GatunduSouthandJuja.


Kiambuhasbeenapolitically-significantareainKenya’spoliticalhistory.Itisconsideredthebedrock



oftheMauMauliberationstruggleanditproducedthefirstpresidentJomoKenyatta.Thelatter’sson,UhuruKenyattahailsfromthisCounty.WhereastheresidentsoftheCountysolidlyvotedforMwaiKibakiinthelastpresidentialelections,thearearesidentshoweverdemonstratedagreatdealofpoliticalpluralismtheirchoiceofMPs-theCountyisrepresentedbyMPsbelongingtoNationalRainbowCoalition–Kenya(NARC-Kenya),PNUandKenyaAfricanNationalUnion(KANU).

There is a risk of exclusionist political campaigns in this County. Based on past history wherebycandidatesmaynotbeabletocampiagnfreely,whereadominantgroupisperceivedtosupportonlyonecandidate,theriskofviolenceisexecerbated.Already,theLariMP,DavidNjugunawasavictimofattacksbyunknownpersonsforappearingtohaveendorsedRailaOdingaforthepresidency.

TheCountywasaffectedbythePEV.TherewerereportedincidencesofretaliatoryattacksagainstmembersoftheLuoandLuyhacommunitiesbylocalresidentsinLimuru,KabeteandRuiruareas.Theseareasremainpronetorecurrenceofviolence,sincenomeasureshavebeentakenagainsttheperpetratorsofthesaidviolence.

Kiambu County was among those worst affected by the Mungiki violence in the last couple ofyears.Even though thegovernmenthas succeeded indrivingMungikiunderground, thepotentialforitsmemberstobemobilizedandusedindispensingpoliticalviolenceremainshigh.Widespreadunemployment, existence of sizeable squatter or landless population in the area and unresolvedpre-independencehistoricalinjusticesprovidegroundsforrecruitmentofyouthintomilitiasuchasMungiki.

Security Dimensions

Kiambuisoneofthemostinsecureareasinthecountry.InsecurityisfuelledbytheexistenceofmilitiasuchasMungiki,existenceofurbansprawlswithsqualorinsuchtownsasRuiruandThika,proliferationof small arms in thearea (anoverflow fromNairobi) andhigh incidencesof unemployment. It ispossiblethatinsecuritycanbeusedasapretextforpoliticalintimidationandperpetrationofpoliticalviolenceintheCounty.

Economic Dimensions

Kiambu is one of the richest Countieswith a relatively lowpoverty rate of 27.2%. The County iswellservicedwithinfrastructureandthishasmadeitanattractiveareaforrealestateinvestment.However,theCountyhaspocketsofextremepovertyinurbanslumsofRuiruandThikaaswellasmarginalareasborderingKajiadoandMachakos.Existenceofsteepinequalitiescouldfuelconflictsinthearea.

TheCountyislikelytobeabigrecipientofdevolvedfundssinceithasahighpopulationamongotherfactorsaselaboratedbytheCRAinlate2011.

Legal Dimensions

Kiambu isservedbyMagistratecourts inKiambu,Thika,Gatundu,Kikuyu,LimuruandGithunguri.However,despitehavingsuchahighpopulation, there isnoHighCourtstation intheCountyandthereforeresidentsareforcedtousetheNairobistation.There isthereforeneedtocreateaHighCourt station toenhanceaccess to justiceand thereforeprovidebetteravenues for resolutionofelection-relatedconflicts.

Social dimensions

Duetoentrenchedinequalities,classtensionsexistintheareaandthishasbeenmanifestedbythe



highinsecurityprevalenceandtakingrootoftheMungikimenace.Incosmopolitanareas,inter-ethnicsuspicionsandmistrustledtoeruptionofretaliatoryattacksagainsttheLuoandLuhyaasmentionedabove.Thesefactorsmayaffecttheelectoralenvironmentcome2012electionsandthereforerequiremonitoring.


Kiambucontinuestosufferfromtheintractablelandproblem.Forinstance,intheMboi-KamitiandNyakinyuafarmsinRuirudistrict,therehavebeenviolentconfrontationsbetweenmembersofthegroups that hold titles over these properties. Landlessness is also prevalent in formerMauMauhotbedssuchasLariandGatundu.Theseissuesmayprovidefertilegroundsforelectoralviolence.

Conclusion

KiambuisahighriskCountywithlikelyhotspotsbeingKiambaa,Lari,GatunduandJujaduetorisingintoleranceagainstanti-Uhurupoliticiansandtheirsupporters.TheMungikiissueisalsolikelytobeadestabilizingfactorifmembersofthesectaremobilizedfornefariouspurposes.TheCountythereforemeritscloserscrutiny.

TURKANA COUNTYTurkana County is situated in the former Rift Valley Province and shares borders with MarsabitCounty(inwhatwasEasternProvince)totheEast,SamburuCountytotheSouthEast,WestPokotandBaringoCountiestotheSouth,RepublicofUgandatotheWestandRepublicofEthiopiatotheNorth.Itoccupies68,680squarekilometers(thesecondlargestinthecountry)withapopulationofonly855,399peoplewhopredominantlybelongtotheTurkanacommunity.TherearesomePokotsandTugensintheSouthandSamburusandBoranastotheEast.

TheCountyhasbotha ruralandanurbanpopulationwithanumberof important townsnamelyLodwar,Kakuma,LokichoggioandLokitaung.Lodwaristhelargestwithapopulationof48,000people.CurrentlytheCountyhasthreeconstituencies:TurkanaNorth,TurkanaCentral,andTurkanaSouth.


ItisrememberedastheplacewheretheformerfirstPresidentoftheRepublicofKenyawasdetainedwithfiveofhiscolleagueschristened‘KapenguriaSix’afterashamtrialin1952/3duringthecolonialperiod.ThetrialtookplaceinKapenguriaintheneighbouringWestPokotCounty.

ThepoliticsofthisareawaspersonalityandpoliticalpartydrivenintheMoiera.ThepeoplethusvotedforthePresidentandKANUanddidnotconsiderotherplayers inpolitics.Since2002ithashoweverbeenmoreunpredictableasshownbythepartiesofMPshavebeenelected.Today,TurkanahasanMPinODMandPNU.ThismeansthatthepeopleofTurkanahavebeenverypluralisticandthatthereisnosingledominantforceintheirpoliticssince2002.Itremainstobeseenwhetherthissituationwillchangein2012.

Security dimensions

ThegovernmentisnotabletoeffectivelysecuretheentireCounty.Asaconsequenceitisforcedtorecruithomeguardsinadditiontoregularpoliceandarmyofficers.ThesearenotenoughandthepeopleoftheCountywhoareablearmthemselvestodefendtheirlivestockfromlivestockhungryneighbours suchas theKaramojong, thePokot, theTurgen, theSamburuand theBorana.Wheredefencedoesnotarise,theTurkanamayretaliateagainstthesecommunitiesforpreviousraidsandtheftofcattlebycarryingoutsimilarattacksandtheft.Itisnotunusualthatbothhumanandlivestock



livesarelostintheskirmishes.

AsnotedinthecaseofWestPokotCounty,thereisaporousborderwithUganda.HeretheTurkanaareabletobuyarmsinexchangeforlivestock.Thesearmscanfindtheirwayintothehandsofmilitiasduringelectionyearsandcausedevastation.ThereisneedtocloselymonitorthesecuritysituationontheborderoftheCountywithUganda,Samburu,BaringoandMarsabit,whichintotalisanexpansivephysicalareathatmayrequirealotofresourcesthatonlythegovernmentcanmuster.

Economic dimensions

Perhapsthemostwidespreadeconomicpracticeislivestockfarming.MajorityoftheTurkanapeopleare pastoralists who rear livestock and have to find pastures through the practice of migration.Livestockisconsideredstock-in-tradeoftheTurkana,wealththatmaybeexpendedinthefutureifthedroughtdoesnotwipetheanimalsout.

TurkanahasafairshareoftourismbythosewhowishtoseethefamousLakeTurkana.This isanimportant feature as the unique lake is found in an area surrounded by dry and arid conditions.OthertouristsareattractedbytheTurkanaculturesuchasthe‘trendy’hairstylesdottedonmenandwomen’sheads;andthebeadsaroundwomen’snecks.

Thereisalsoafairlevelofbasketweaving.ThisisdoneusingreedsfromtheLakeTurkanawhicharefirstdriedbeforebeingwoven.Thebasketsarethensoldataprofittomiddlemenwhosellthemtoonwardmarkets.

ThereisalsoatremendousamountoffishtradeontheshoresofLakeTurkana.Inrecenttimes,dueinparttoachangeinclimaticconditions,therehavebeenreportsoftheLakeshrinkingandpartsofitbeingattackedbyhyacinth.Thishasnotsofarseriouslyaffectedfishingandfishtradebutitneedstobecloselymonitored.

ExperimentsarebeingcarriedouttodeterminewhetherawindpowerprojectcanbeestablishedintheCountytogeneratepowerthatcouldbeaddedtothenationalelectricitygrid.Ifitturnsoutpositive,thiscouldgenerateconsiderableincomefortheCounty.

Mostrecently,inApril2012,PresidentKibakiannouncedthediscoveryofoildepositsintheCounty(inNgamia1well)afterexplorationbyTullowOilcompanyforanumberofyears.Thisfindingcouldbringbothblessings(read,revenue)andcurses(read,conflicts)withinandoutsidetheCounty.

Legal dimensions

TheCounty is servedby theMagistrates’ Courts based in Lodwar. Appeals to theHigh Court arehandledbytheHighCourtinKitale.Duetoitssparsepopulation(whichisalmostalwaysonthemove)andexpansivegeographicareatheCountymaynotbewellservedbythejudiciary.Thereforeconflictsareusuallyresolvedthroughself-helpmeanswhichcancreateconflict.

Socio cultural dimensions

Thedominant community in theCounty is theTurkanaalthough there is anumberof Pokot andTurgenintheSouthernparts,SamburuandBoranatotheEast.Alltheaforementionedcommunitiesconsider livestockfarmingcentraltotheir livelihoodandeconomy.Asaresulttheyvaluelivestockto theextent thatafterprolongeddrought they raideachotherandsteal livestockandmeetanyresistancewith armed force. Cattle theft is also prevalent during initiation rites of passagewhenyoungmenmayraidothercommunitiesforlivestock.ThishasledtoacycleofcattlerustlingbetweenthecommunitiesinTurkanaandneighbouringCountieswhichhasinturnledtocommitteesofelders



beingsetuptoresolveconflicts.

ThefactthatTurkananeighboursUgandawhichhascommunitiessuchastheKaramojong,anarmedandfierceadversary,alsopastoralistinnaturemeanscattlerustlingispracticedacrosstheborder.Toraidordefendthemselvesagainstattacks,almostallthecommunitiesarearmed;mostlywithillegalarms.


Theclimate inTurkana ishotanddrymostof theyear. In factrainfallherecanaverageas lowas150mm(orless)inthecentralaridparts.TheCountyispronetofamineandcattlerustlingduetoconstantmigrationbypastoralistsfromitsdifferentpartsandfromneighbouringCountiesinsearchofpasturesfortheirlivestock.Asindicatedelsewherethiscausesdegradationoftheenvironmentsleavingitworseoffthanbefore.Further,LakeTurkanaisdryingupandshrinkingduetoachangeinclimaticconditionsnot tomentioncreationofdamsupstreamby theEthiopiangovernment.Thiscouldadverselyaffectfishing.

Conclusion

ThereisneedtocloselymonitorthesecuritysituationonthebordersoftheCountywithUganda,EthiopiaandSouthSudan(ElemiTrianglewheretherehavebeentraditonaldisputesbetweentheMerrille,Toposa,KaramajongandTurkana).InregardstoneighbouringCountiesofSamburu,WestPokot,Marakwet,BaringoandMarsabit, it is importanttomonitorespeciallytheKainukarea.Thebordersbetweentheaforesaidcommunitiesarelongandmayrequirea lotofresourcesthatmaybeonlythegovernmentcanorshouldmuster.Inthisregardcivilsocietygroupsneedtoworkcloselywithgovernmentsecurityefforts.

The discovery of oil, and its further explorationwithin the County should be closelymonitored.Therefore,themanagementoftheexploration,throughlegislationandpolicy,shouldbedonewitheffectiveparticipationoftheresidentsoftheCounty.

WEST POKOT COUNTYWestPokotCountyissituatedintheformerRiftValleyProvinceandsharesborderswiththeRepublicofUgandato theWest,TurkanaCounty to theNorth,TransNzoia to theSouth,ElgeyoMarakwetCountytotheSouthEastandBaringoCountytotheEast.Itoccupies9,169squarekilometerswithapopulationof512,690people.

ThePokotpeoplearethepredominantcommunityintheCountywithsomespilloverintothearidpartsoftheneighbouringBaringoCounty.Thesepeoplewereformerlyknownasthe‘Suk’,anounderivedfrom‘Msuk’whichinPokotmeansstump;thenounwasusedtohidetheirtrueidentityfromtheBritishduringthecolonialperiod.TheyclaimtohaveoccupiedthelandstretchingfromSoyinUasinGishuuptoWestPokotbeforetheyweredisplacedbytheBritishcolonialistswhopushedthemintotheKarengerandKanyarkwatranches.Consequently,thePokotharbourahistorical(andthuspolitical)grievanceoverland.

CurrentlytheCountyhasthreeconstituencies:Kapenguria,SigorandKacheliba.KapenguriaisbyfartheleadingurbancentreintheCountywithapopulationofaround35,000people.


ThepoliticsoftheCountyhavebeendominatedbyKANU(intheMoiera)andbyindividualssincethen.Politiciansmainlytakeadvantageofthehighilliteracyandpovertyrates(70%arepoor)toserve



for longperiodsoverwhichtheysuppresstheambitionsofanypersonswhomayposeapoliticalthreat.Inthisregard,anyonewhoattainshigheracademicqualificationsisconsideredathreatandmustassureincumbentsofhis/hersupport.Themajorityfeelthatpoliticiansdonotrepresenttheirinterests.However,whenitcomestovotingthepeoplearesomewhathomogeneousandhaveinthepastvoted‘threepiece’apossiblepointertoa‘sixpiece’voteinthenextelections.75

Security dimensions

SincetheeraofthelateFrancisLotodo,aformerMemberofParliamentandMinisterunderformerPresident Moi’s government, the County is inundated with undertones of violence which aresometimesexacerbatedbythemedia,which intheiroveralleffectunfairlydepict thePokotasan“aggressivepeople”eveninsituationswheretheyarevictims,notaggressors.

Somegovernmentoperations in thearea, suchas the1984operationagainst the ‘ngoroko’werenothelpful.Localleadershavealwayssidedwiththe‘ngoroko’asituationwhichmakespeaceintheCountyelusive.Poorinfrastructurefrustratessecuritypersonnelinaccomplishingtheirtasks.ThisissoeventhoughtheCountyhasafairlyhighpercentageofgood/fairroadsstandingat58%againstthenationalaverageof43%.

AsWestPokotsharesacommonborderwiththeRepublicofUganda,whichhasahistoryofpoliticalandmilitaryturbulence,Pokotsareabletobuyarmsfromtherecheaply.Infact,someofthepurchasesofarmsareconcludedwiththemereexchangeoflivestock;someofwhichhavebeenstolenfromcommunitiesneighbouringthePokot.

ItistobenotedthatthoughontheKenyanside,thePokotshaveoftenbeenlabelledasaggressors,infact,itistheirneighboursontheUgandanside,theKaramojawhohavetakenadvantageoftheporousbordertosteal,rob,maimandkillonbothsidesoftheborder.

WithinKenyatheborderbetweenElgeyoMarakwetCountyandtheEasternpartsofPokotCounty,especiallyatChesegon,sufferhighlevelsofinsecurityandcattlerustling.

Economic dimensions

WestPokotCountyhasvasteconomicresources.ThecontroversialTurkwellpowerdamis locatedinthisCountyalthoughonly2.6%ofthelocalpopulationhasaccesstoelectricity.Thereisdiverselimestone(OstumandAlale)miningintheCountythatservestoprovidejobstoafewlocalpeople.

The area around Lelan practices very productive agriculture. In the dry regions the Kerio ValleyDevelopmentAuthority(KVDA)assiststhelocalpopulationwithirrigationalagriculture.OtherpartsoftheCountypracticepastoralism,thatistosay,rearinglivestockbymovingfromplacetoplaceinsearchofpasture.ThereareindicationsthattheareaaroundOrwoMarichandAlalemayhaveoildepositssufficientforcommercialpurposes.This, if itturnsouttobetrue,wouldbeaneconomicgamechanger.

Legal dimensions

Itseemsthatconflictistheonlywaytoaddresstheseissues.Albeit,thereareMagistrateslawcourtsinKapenguriatown.MattersthataresuitableforhearingbytheHighCourtinthefirstinstanceoronappealareheardattheKitaleHighCourt.ItwouldbedifficulttoconvinceanyoneintheCountythatthejudicialservicesareadequate.75 Unlike 2007 elections where candidates were voting for three seats (president, MP and councilor), the upcoming elections will have six seats to be filled. These are: the president/deputy president; the governor/deputy governor of the county; the senator; the member of the national assembly; the member of the county assembly; and finally, the woman representative to be directly elected from the county to be a member of the national assembly.




Asstartedinthepoliticalandeconomicdimensions,thePokotarethepredominantcommunityintheCounty.MembersofothercommunitiesaremainlyrepresentedintheurbanKapengurialocation.InfactitisthePokotthathavespilledoverintoBaringoCountyandsettledthere.RaidingtheMarakwetcommunityintheneighbouringElgeyoMarakwetCountyisa‘normal’activitywhichoccursfromtimetotime.

The County also hosts internally displaced persons from the neighbouring TransNzoia County atChepchoina.ThereareproblemswithsquatterstakingoverprivatelyownedlandsuchastheMwishofarm.Landiscommunallyownedleadingtowranglesoverapportionmentandinheritance.TherearealsoclaimsoflandgrabbingintheareassurroundingTurkwell.

Withregardtoeasingofethnictensions intheCounty,CSOshavebeenworkingonvariouspeacepromotingactivitiessuchassports,dialogue,connectorprojectsandprovisionofeducation.FemaleGenitalMutilation(FGM)isanongoingconcernwithhumanrightsactivistsfightingforitsabolitionwhiletraditionalistsholdingthatitisgoodforthechastityoftheyounggirlsandwomeningeneral.


Therearesomeenvironmentalconcernssuchasthefactthatwaterprovisionreacheslessthan40%ofthepopulation.Thiscoupledwithpastoralismpracticeswhichbytheirnaturecauselanddegradationmeansconflictmayrecurandthereforeneedstobemonitoredclosely.

Conclusion

ThePokotfeeltheyaremarginalizedandthatthetendencybysomeactorstolumpthemtogetherwiththegreaterKalenjinnationhasnobenefittothematall.Theyfeelthatthehistoricallandinjusticestheyhavesufferedhaveneverbeenaddressedand if thisstateofaffairs isnotrectifiedtheymayconsiderusingforcetoreclaimtheirland.TheareashouldbemonitoredespeciallytoforestalltheriskofsmallarmscomingintotherestofthecountryfromUganda.TheborderareaaroundChesegoninparticularshouldconcernthesecurityapparatusoftheneighbouringCounties,whichshouldprovidemoresecuritypersonnelandimprovetheroadnetwork.

SAMBURU COUNTY SamburuCountyissituatedintheformerRiftValleyProvinceandsharesborderswithTurkanaCountytotheWest,LaikipiaandIsioloCountiestotheSouthandEast;andMarsabitCountytotheNorth.ItsharesaverysmallborderwithBaringoCountytowardsitsSouthWesterntip.Inwhole,theCountyoccupies21,022squarekilometerswithapopulationof223,947people.TheurbanpopulationoftheCountyisfoundinitsmaintownswhichareMaralal,Baragoi,Archer’sPostandWamba.CurrentlytheCountyhastwoconstituencies:SamburuEastandSamburuWest.


SamburuCountyissparselypopulatedwithjustover223,000people80%beingtheSamburuwhichisthereforethemainethnicgroup;and20%unevenlysharedbyTurkana,Kikuyu,Meru,Somaliamongothers.

TheSamburucommunityisthedominantgroupinpolitics.Thecommunitieslargelyrelatepeacefullyalthough conflicts are rife between the Samburu and the Pokot from the neighbouring Counties.Someoftheseconflictshaveresultedinlossoflivesonmanyoccasions.



IntheCounty,Samburu,whoconstitute80%ofthevotingpopulation,voteasablock,thustheirholdontheelectiveseatsisunchallengeable.ThisisclearlyshownbythefactthatbothMPsintheregionsinceindependencehavecomefromtheSamburucommunity.Thus,electionrelatedviolencehasnotbeenexperiencedintheregion.

The County was previously divided into two constituencies, Samburu West and Samburu East.SamburuEastwasestablishedin1966asthebiggerconstituencybutwasdividedin1969toproduceSamburuWest.TheyhavebeenfurtherdividedtocreateSamburuNorthConstituencyrecentlyafterthepromulgationoftheConstitutioninAugust2010.PoliticsineachofthecurrentConstituencies,WestandEast,hasbeenlargelyapartyaffairsinceindependence.ThisisshownbythefactthatallMPsfromtheregionsinceindependencehavehailedfromKANUuntilthe2007electionswhentheODMpartytookbothseats.

Security dimensions

Muchof the insecurity isduetocattle-rustlingbetweentheSamburu,Pokot,TurkanaandBoranacommunities.DuetoitsproximitytotheNorthEasternregion,thereisahighproliferationofgunsandsmallarmswhichmakestheareaveryvolatile.Cattleraidsleavescoresofpeopledeadandthisisthemostrampantformofcrimeinthearea.

Inadditiontoafewsecurityofficerspostedorratherstationedintheregion,thegovernmenthasput in place Kenya Police Reservists. These augment the ‘normal’ police services and somewhatamelioratesthelackofpolicepatrolsintheregionwhichiswithoutdoubtvast.

Foraverylongtime,theKenyangovernmenthasbeeninvolvedinnumerousefforts,todisarmthecommunitiesinthisCountyandtheirneighbours.However,tilltodaytheseeffortsremainfruitless.Thishasledtoastockpilingofarmsbythecommunitiestoprotectthemselvesfrominsecurity,sincethegovernment’seffortsarenotadequate.

Economic dimensions

SamburuCountyissemiaridinnatureanditsmaineconomicactivitiesarelivestockkeeping/pastoralfarmingandagriculturalfarming.Oftheseactivities,themostlikelytogenerateconflictisthelivestockkeeping/pastoralismespeciallyduringthedryseasonwhenmembersofthevariouscommunitiesgoinsearchofpasturesfortheirlivestock.

AremarkablefeatureoftheCounty is thehighpercentageofgood/fairroadswhichstandat61%againstanationalaverageof43.5%.ThismeansthatSamburuissettobecomeanimportanttransitCountytoKenya’sneighbourEthiopia.

Legal dimensions

SamburuCountyisservedby,theChiefMagistrate’sCourtlocatedinMaralaltown.AllappealsfromtheCourtliewiththeHighCourtStationatNakurutownastheheadquartersoftheformerRiftValleyProvinceofwhichSamburuispart.


TheSamburuethnicgrouphashadculturalconflictswiththeSomali tribeandsomeof theothertribes.TheclasheswiththeSomalisextendtodifferencesoverreligionwiththeSambururegardingIslam,thereligionoftheSomalis,withsuspicion.ThemajorcauseofconflictinthisCountyiscattle



rustling.Theraidsmostly involvetheSamburuandPokotfromtheneighbouringCountiesandarecharacterizedbygunfightsandgrislykillings.

TheissuesoframpantFGMandwomen’slowparticipationinpoliticsareabigchallenge.


Samburu County is blessed with a rich variety of wildlife which is exemplified by the severalconservanciesandgamereservesthatserveastouristattractions.ThesearetheSamburuNationalGame Reserve, the Ewaso Ng’iro, Buffalo Springs National Reserve and Shaba National Reserve.HumanWildlifeconflictisnegligibleinthisregionandislimitedtoillegalpoachingofgamemeatandthekillingofcarnivorestoprotectlivestock.

TheEwasoNg’iroistheprimarysourceofpermanentlyflowingwaterintheCounty.ThisisexemplifiedbyimprovedwateraccessintheCountywhichhasrisenupto68%ofthepopulation.Asaresultofthis,theCounty’senvironmentislargelyconservedinitsnaturalstate.

However,duringdroughtyearstherehasbeenand likelytobe in future,competitionandconflictovernaturalresources,especiallywaterbetweenthecommunities.DuringsuchseasonstheSamburupeoplemusteitherdigwells inthesandriversandusesmalldamsandspringstoaccesswaterorrathermigrate.Otherconflictsarecausedbycompetitionbetweenhumansandwildanimals,suchaswhenherdsmenandelephantsattempttoaccesswatersimultaneously.Elephantsmayinthiscasechaseandevenkillthecattle.

Conclusion

SamburuCountyisasparselypopulatedCountywithpoorsecurityarrangements.Thereissporadicfighting between the Samburu, Borana, Turkana, Somali andMaasai communitieswho use armsseepinginfromKenya’sporousborderwithUganda(viaTurkanaandWestPokotCounties).Mostofthefightingdoesnothoweverinfluenceelectoralpolitics.Thereforeinsteadofelectoralmonitoring,concernedgroupsshouldurgethegovernmenttoprovidesecurityfortheresidentsinordertoreducesecurityself-helpmeasuresundertakenbythecommunitiesandseepageofsmallarms intootherpartsofthecountry.Inaddition,theequitablesharingofeconomicbenefitsfromnaturalresourcesdottedallovertheCountymayensurepeace.

TRANS NZOIA COUNTYTransNzoiaCountyissituatedintheformerRiftValleyProvinceandsharesborderswithUgandatotheWest,ElgeyoMarakwetandUasinGishuCountiestotheEast,WestPokotCountytotheNorthandBungomaCountytotheSouth.

It occupies 2,496 square kilometers with a relatively high population of 818,757 people whopredominantlybelongtotheLuhyaandKalenjincommunities.ThatisnottosaythatothercommunitiessuchastheKikuyu,Kisii,Luo,TesoandmanyothersdonotresideintheCounty.Indeed,TransNzoiaisjustaboutthemostcosmopolitan‘rural’CountyinKenyatoday.

TheCountyhasbotha ruralandanurbanpopulationwithanumberof important townsnamelyKitaleandKiminini.Kitaleisthe20thbiggesttowninKenyawithapopulationover105,000people.

Currentlyithasthreeconstituencies:Saboti,Kwanza,andCheranganyi.




Thepoliticsof theCountyhavebeendominatedeitherby the LuhyaorKalenjin communitywiththe formeroftenedging the latter.TheCountyhasa largenumberof theLuhyacommunity fromKakamega, Bungoma and even Busia; it also has a large Kalenjin community drawn from Pokot,UasinGishuandElgeyoMarakwet.ThereareothercommunitiessuchastheKikuyuandKisiiintheCountyaslandownersorbusinesspeople.IntheKANUera,MasindeMuliroandhisprotégéMichaelWamalwa(wholaterservedasPresidentMwaiKibaki’svicepresident)calledtheshotsfrompoliticalpartiesopposedtotheincumbentgovernment.

Security dimensions

TransNzoiabordersUgandaandWestPokotandElgeyo/Marakwettosomeextent.Allitsneighbourshavecommunitieswhichownanduse small arms toengage in cattle rustlingand self-defence. Itis likelythatthesearmsfindtheirwayintootherpartsofthecountrywheretheycanbeusedforpoliticalpurposessuchasarmingmilitiathatsupportcertainpoliticalinterestsorintothehandsofcriminals.Eitheroutcomeisundesirableandasecurityrisk;assuchtheCountyshouldbemonitoredthroughout.Moreover,inthisCountysittingandretiredcouncillorsandCDFofficialshavebeenkilledforpoliticalreasons.

Economic dimensions

ThetwopredominanteconomicactivitiesintheCountyarelargescalefarminganddairyfarming.TherearemanyfarmersintheCountywhoeithergrowseedmaizefromwhichmaizeseedcompaniesgettheseedtoselltofarmersintheCountyandtherestofthecountry;orwhogrowmaizecommerciallytosellittotheKenyaCerealsandProduceBoard(KCPB)foraprofit.

Thereisalsoextensivefarminginpotatoes,carrots,vegetablesandfruitsforcommercialpurposes.TheCountyisservedbytheKitaleairstripwhichisabletoaccommodatesmalltomediumaircraft.ThisisinadditiontotheEldoretInternationalAirportwhichisonlyanhourawayfromKitale.

Legal dimensions

The County is served by aHigh Court based in Kitalewhich also servesWest Pokot and TurkanaCounties. There are alsoMagistrates Courts in Kitale with jurisdiction to handle claims that arehandledbytheHighCourt.Itisnotclearwhetherthecourtsprovideasatisfactoryconflictresolutionmechanismhere.Therearehoweverhistoricalgrievancesoverlandownership.


TherearemanycommunitiesinTransNzoiaasindicatedintheintroduction.TheLuhyaandKalenjinarethemajorityinthatorder.ThereareothercommunitiessuchasKikuyu,theKisii,theLuo,andtheTeso.Theinterestingthingisthatevenamongthesecommunitiesthereareintra-ethnicrivalriessuchasthosebetweentheBukusuandtheTachoni;theSabaotandthePokots;andthePokotsandtheMarakwets.


TransNzoiaCountyliesatthefootofMt.ElgonontheborderwithUganda.Asaresultithasagoodclimatewithrainfallingwholeyearround.Thismakesitconducivetogrowmaizebothforseedandconsumptionpurposes;andtocarryondairyfarming.

TheCountyhasanationalgamereserveandhashistoriccaveswithinthefootoftheMountElgon



whichattracttourists.Apartfromthis,thereareindividualconservanciesintheareawhoalsoattracttourismandrevenue.

TheCountyhasnotsufferedadverseclimaticconditionsastheRiverNzoiawhichflowsthroughitfromCheranganyihillsisalmostalwaysfull.ThereareplanstobuildadamonthisriverinBungomaCounty(aprojectwhichrequirespeopletobemoved)withoutadverseeffectstoTransNzoia.

Conclusion

Duetothefactthatithasoneofthehighestmulti-communitypopulationinthecountryitshouldbemonitoredclosely.Nationalpoliticsinfluenceshowcommunitiestreatorreactagainstthosefromdifferentcommunities.LanddistributionbetweentheBukusuandtheSabaots,betweentheKalenjinsandtheLuhyas,andbetweentheKalenjinsandtheKikuyuamongothersprovideapowderkegatanyelectiontime.Therearenumerouscasesoflandsquatters;ontheflipsidetherearecasesoflocalpeople‘takingover’farmstheyarguewereillegally(throughpoliticalconnections)acquired.Thesedynamicsneedtobemonitored.

ItshouldnotbeforgottenthatTransNzoiasharesaborderwithUgandaandWestPokot,twoareaswhereitiseasytoacquiresmallarms.Thesecurityapparatusshouldbeonthelookouttoensureinthemonthsleadinguptotheelectionsthesedonotfindtheirwayintothehandsofmilitiaformedbypoliticianstopushtheiragenda.

UASIN GISHU COUNTY

UasinGishuCounty is situated in the formerRiftValleyProvince. It bordersNandi County to theSouth,TransNzoiaCountytotheNorth,andElgeyoMarakwetCountytotheEast. ItsharessomerathershortborderswithBungomaCountytotheWestandKerichoCountytoitsSouthEasterntip.Itoccupies3,345squarekilometerswithapopulationof894,179people.Eldoretisitscapitalcityaswellasmaincommercialcentre.Thenoun“Eldoret”isderivedfromtheMaasaiadjective“eldore”whichmeansastonyriverand isusedtorefer tothebedof theCounty’smainriver, theSosiani,whosebedisinfactstony.

The County population comprises mainly of members of the Kalenjin (Nandi, Kipsigis, Keiyos,Marakwets) community. This is complemented by other communities such as the Luhya, Kikuyu,KisiiandLuoamongothers.ThelattercommunitiesresidemainlyontheoutskirtsofEldorettown.UasinGishuhasbotharuralandanurbanpopulationwithanumberof importanttownsnamelyEldoret,Moi’sBridge,Matunda,BurntForest, JuaKali,andTurbo.Currently theCountyhas threeconstituencies:EldoretNorth,EldoretSouthandEldoretEast.


The County politics are shaped mainly by the predominant Kalenjin community. Historically theCountywasalignedwiththeformerrulingpartyKANUandforsometimethemainpoliticiantherewasthe lateReubenChesire,arelativeofretiredPresidentMoi.Sincethe latter’sretirement, thehomogeneityof theKalenjinhasbeenmaintainedbehind thoseconsidered tobe thecommunityleaders.AsaconsequencethevotingpatternintheCounty’sthreeconstituencieshasbeenthesamein the 1997, 2002, and 2007 general elections. For instance in 1997 elections, all the candidateselectedasMPsbelongedtoKANU.Thesamewasreplicatedin2002.In2007,theMPswereallfromtheODMpoliticalparty.

Currently,oneoftheindividualsconsideredaKalenjincommunityleaderistheMPforEldoretNorth,Mr.WilliamRuto.IntheviewofmanyKalenjinsheisinfactbothacommunalandanationalleader.HehasbeenthemostinfluentialpoliticalactorsinceformerPresidentMoi’sretirement.



DuetothedivisiveelectionsandevenmoreambiguousresultsthatwereannouncedbytheECK,post-electionviolencebrokeoutinmanypartsoftheCounty.ThemaincauseofthiswastheallegationthattheelectionhadbeenriggedbytheECKinfavourofthePNUanditscandidatePresidentMwaiKibaki.Therigging,intheviewoftheKalenjinpeoplehadrobbedMr.RutoandhispoliticalpartyleaderandpresidentialcandidateRailaOdingaofwhatseemedanassuredvictory.

Thetruthofthematterhowevergoesdeeperthanthat.TheCountyhasahistorical landproblemcaused by the fact that the Kalenjins, feel the County “belongs” to themand have been given arawdealinlandallocation.Theirmaingrievanceisthatunderthefirstpresident,LateMzeeJomoKenyatta’sgovernment,theregimesetapartandallocatedillegallyprimelandto“outsiders”,mostlyfromtheKikuyucommunity,withoutanycompensation.Thisgrievanceprovidesthefaultlineforallthepoliticalconflictsincludingthepost-electionviolenceinwhichtheKikuyuwereattacked,maimed,displacedorkilledforvotingagainstthewishesoftheir“hosts”.

Security dimensions

UasinGishuisarelativelystableregionintermsofsecurity.Thisiswiththeexceptionofpost-electionperiodwhere security situation isusually sensitive.Themostaffectedareaswere thoseoccupiedbythenon-Kalenjincommunities,especially theKikuyu,suchasTurbo,KiambaaandareasontheoutskirtsofEldorettown.

ProgressoftheKenyancasesattheICC,inparticularthatofWilliamRuto,willneedtobemonitoredcloselyasitmayaffectintercommunalrelationsontheground.

Economic dimensions

UasinGishuisbasicallyanagriculturalCounty.Themostimportantfarmingactivitiesarecommercialcultivationofmaizeandwheatonlargescale.Maize,beans,potatoesandpeasarealsocultivatedbothforsubsistenceandcommercialpurposes.

Livestockfarmingisalsopracticed.Farmersengageindairyfarmingonalargescale(usingmodernmethodssuchas zero-grazingandcrossbreedingofherds);producing largequantitiesofmilk fordeliverytodairyproductprocessorssuchastheKenyaCooperativeCreameries(KCC)andBrooksideDairyCompanyformoney.

Like neighbouring Elgeyo Marakwet, the County has prospered economically from professionalathletics.Itproducesathletesofthehighestcalibrewhonotonlycompetebutexcelatinternationalathletics circuits thereby winning huge sums of money (for appearance and victory) which theyreinvestintheCounty.Thissuccessofpedigreeathleteshasdrawnmanyyoungpeopletothesport.

AsadirectconsequenceoflargescalefarmingandsuccessfulathleticsEldorettownboostsalargepool of commercial banks. In fact, it is one of the few towns togetherwithNairobi, Kisumu andMombasathathostCentralBankofKenya.

TheCounty is alsooneof the fewwith an international airport: theEldoret InternationalAirportwhichprovidestheregionwithlinkagestobothlocalandinternationaldestinations.Thishasactedas a boost to the economy by promoting transportation of agricultural produce and tourists. Airtransportation isaugmentedbyahighwaythat linkstheCountywithKampala (inUganda)ontheWestandNakurutotheEast.Localroads link itwithTransNzoia,anotheragriculturallyricharea,whichtogetherwithUasinGishuandNakuruCountiesareconsideredthebreadbasketofKenya.



Legal dimensions

ThemaincourtsintheCountyaretheHighCourtandtheMagistratesCourtsbasedinEldoret.Giventhecosmopolitannatureof the townthecourtsarekeptbusywith resolutionofcommercialandothercasesbroughtbeforethem.Inadditiontotheabovetwocourts,theCourtofAppealisgoingtobesetupinEldoret.ThisisaccordingtoChiefJusticeWillyMutunga’sjudiciaryreformsstatusreportreleasedinOctober2011.

ThemainconcernforthisCountyisinfact,notwhetherthejudiciaryissufficientlyequippedtodealwiththeinter-ethnicflareupsthatoccurduringandafterelectionperiods;butwhethermembersofthelocalcommunitywillregardthemasanimpartialarbiterincasesthatmayarise.


Asobservedinearlierdimensions,theCounty’spopulationispredominantlyKalenjin,afactwhichhasinevitablyresultedinthecommunity’scultureheavilyinfluencingtheothercommunities.Somuchsothatmanyculturalpractices,suchasritesofpassage(initiation)intoadulthood,areinfluencedbyandbasedonKalenjintraditionalpractices.

Theinter-communityrelationsarepeacefulaslongasthereisnothingatstake.TheKalenjins,Luhyas,Kikuyusandotherslivehappilycarryingonwiththeirprivatelivesandbusinesses.ButatthebackofthemindsofmembersoftheKalenjincommunityisthenotionthatsome“foreigners”(Kikuyu)tooktheir landwithoutcompensation. Duringelectiontimethe landgrievancesarecamouflagedasapoliticalcausetobepursueduntilthe“foreigners”arepurgedfrom“their”(Kalenjin)land.


Anestimated90percentoftheentirelandareaintheCountyisarableandcanbeclassifiedashighpotential.Therearefourmajorsoiltypesinthearea,allofwhicharesuitedforagriculturalproduction.Theseincluderedloam,redclay,brownclayandbrownloam.Atotalof29,801.92hectarestheCountyisgazettedforest.Outofthis,13,183.54hectares(44percent)isunderplantation,while,16,618.38hectares(56percent)isunderindigenousforestcover.TheforestcovercontributestosustenanceofclimaticconditionsthatprovidesufficientrainfallleavingtheCountygreenallyearround.Therefore,theCountycanberegardedasenvironmentfriendly.

89%oftheCountypopulationhasaccesstocleanwater,makingitthethirdinthecountryinthatregard.Ithasanevenbettersanitationrecordwith98%ofthepopulationhavingaccess(albeititis12thinthecountry).

Conclusion

UasinGishuisoneofthepromisingCountiesintermsofeconomicinvestmentsinthelargerNorthRiftregion.Itisconsideredasthecapital‘city’fortheNorthRiftregionpopulace.ThisisbecauseofavailabilityofproperinfrastructuresuchastheMoiTeachingandReferralHospitalwhichisoneofthefewhospitalsinKenyathatboastlatestmedicaltechnologies.Forexample,ithasanAMPATHCentreforpeoplesufferingfromHumanImmuno-deficiencyVirus(HIV).

The County’s Achilles Heel is its vulnerability to conflicts arising from historical land grievancesharbouredbytheKalenjinvis-à-vistheKikuyucommunity.Thisconflictmaycometoboilingpoint,asithasdoneinpastelectionperiods,thereforemonitoringisrequired.



ELGEYO / MARAKWET COUNTYElgeyo/MarakwetissituatedintheformerRiftValleyprovince.ItbordersBaringoCountytotheEast,WestPokotCountytotheNorth,UasinGishuCountytotheWestandTransNzoiaCountytotheNorthWest.Itoccupies3,030squarekilometersandhasapopulationof369,998peoplewhopredominantlybelongtotheKeiyoandMarakwetsubtribesoftheKalenjincommunity.TherearealsoafewTurgensfromtheneighbouringBaringoCounty.

TheCountyhasamostlyruralpopulationwiththeTambachandItenbeingthemainurbancentresoftheKeiyopeoplewithapopulationofover42,000people.KapsowaristhemainurbancentrefortheMarakwetpeoplewitharelativelypopulationof5,000people.Kapcherop isoneof theotherrelativelyimportantcentresfortheMarakwets.

CurrentlytheCountyhasfourconstituencies:KeiyoSouth,MarakwetWest,MarakwetEastandKeiyoNorth.


ForalongtimethepoliticsinthisareawasdominatedbyNicholasKipyatorBiwott.Althoughhelosthisseatinthe2007generalelectionstoanewcomer,JacksonKiptanui,Biwottremainsinfluentialduetohispoliticalorganization-heistheleaderofapoliticalpartynamedtheVisionPartyofKenya(VPK).

ThereiscontinuingpoliticalfrictionbetweentheMarakwetsandKeiyos.ThisiscausedbythefactthattheformerareaminoritygroupandhavefeltunfairlydominatedpoliticallythroughwhicheconomicresourceshavepreviouslybeendisposedbytheKeiyos.

Security dimensions

The border between Elgeyo/Marakwet and West Pokot is a source of insecurity in the Elgeyo/MarakwetCounty.ThePokothabitually raid theMarakwet (mostly theArror community) to stealcattle,rapewomenandevenkillinnocentvillagers.Theyareabletodothisbecausetheyarefairlywellarmedas theyable to sourcesmallarms fromneighbouringUganda.TheMarakwets in turnhavetoarmthemselvesfordefensiveandsometimesretaliatorypurposes;therebycreatingacycleofinsecurity.Thissituationisnotlikelytodissipatesoon.ThereforetheflowofarmsfromUgandatoWestPokotandMarakwetshouldbemonitored.

TheKamatonyforestisahabitatforthieveswhowaylaycattletraders.ThisusuallyhappenswhentheMarakwetbringtheirlivestockforauctionorsaleonthemarkets.

Economic dimensions

ThereareanumberofeconomicactivitiesincludingmaizeandpassionfarminginKeiyo.Inaddition,thereisdairyfarmingwithsomefarmersusingmoderndaymethodssuchaszero-grazing.InMarakwettheyproducepotatoes,vegetablesandmangoes.

Howeverthere isalsothetraditional livestockrearingwhichrequiresherders to look forpasturesespeciallyintheMarakwetside.ThisleadsthemtoneighbouringcommunitiessuchasWestPokotandBaringoandmaysometimescauseskirmishesbetweenherdersfromthedifferentcommunities.

Thereused tobepyrethrum farming in theCountybut thishas since faltereddue to thegeneralmismanagementofthecashcropinKenyaandthelossesincurredbyfarmers.Insteadmanyfarmerstodaygrowpotatoesmostlyforcommercialpurposes.Attemptsbyfarmerstogrowcottonhavenotbeensuccessfulforlackofmarket.



TheCountyhasafewtouristattractionpointssuchastheItenandKamarinyviewpointsoftheGreatRiftValley.Thereisalsofluorsparmining;anactivitywhichhasprovidedemploymentforyouthfromthearea.TheminingcompanieshaveincorporatedCorporateSocialResponsibility(CSR)andhencehavebuilteducationalinfrastructuresuchasschoolsandprovidingdesksandbookstostudents.

ElgeyoMarakwet is thehomeofKenya’sworld famousathleticheroesandheroines includingthecurrent Laurus Sports Personality of the Year 2011, Vivian Cheruiyot. These athletes generate alotofmoneybywinning racesallover theworld.Someof thisfinds itsway into theeconomyofElgeyo/Marakwet County; the only question beingwhether the County has sufficient investmentopportunities.

Althoughthereisahighlevelofcashinflowsfromathletics,only7%ofthepeopleinthisCountyareontheelectricitynationalgrid.Thereishoweveraverygoodroadnetworksurpassingthenationalaverageof43.5%(fairroads)by17%%.MuchofthisdevelopednetworkisattributedtotheinfluenceofBiwott,towhomreferencehasbeenmadeunderthepoliticaldimension.

Legal dimensions

ThisCountyisservedbytheMagistratescourtsatIten.ThelocationisnotidealforallmembersoftheCountyandthereisneedforredistribution.Theimportantpointtonotehereisthatsomeofthedisputescanberesolvedthroughcourtbutfulladvantageofthisisnotdemonstrated.


TheCountyhastwomaincommunitiesnamelytheKeiyoandtheMarakwet;andamodestnumberofTurgen.AllthesecommunitiesbelongtotheKalenjintribeandtheyareviewedbyotherKenyansashavinggaineddisproportionatelyfromformerPresidentMoi’sregime.ButbetweentheKeiyoandMarakwet,therehasbeenanon-goingfrictioninwhichtheMarakwetfeeltheyhavebeenunfairlypoliticallyandeconomicallydominatedbytheKeiyo.Itisthisfrictionthatledtothedrawingofthecurrentconstituencyboundarieswiththeobjectiveofprotectingthecommunityofinterestofeach.SuchcompromisesmayberequiredinthefutureregardingsharingofresourceswithintheCounty,otherwisetherewillbeconflictbasedonthehistoricalfaultlineofdomination.

TheTurgens intheCountyarenot influentialastheyareamerespillover fromtheneighbouringBaringoCounty.Inaddition,thereisnotmuchculturaldifferencebetweenitandtheothertwosubtribes.


Atageneral level, theCountyhasa fairlygoodsupplyofwater tohouseholdswithasupply.TheCountycanroughlybedividedintotwozonesnamelythehighlandsandthelowlands.Thehighlandsreceivehighamountsofrainfallandmoisture.Thesoilsarefertileanditisherethatpotatofarmingtakesplace.

Thelowlandsaredrierandasaconsequencereceive lowamountsofrainfall. It isherethattheretraditionalcattlerearingandpastureisanimportantconsideration.Conflictsregardingpasturewithneighboursoccurinthispart.

Conclusion

Inpoliticalandelectoralterms,thisconstituencymaynotneedmuchmonitoringsaveforthesecuritydimensionregardingtheflowofarmsfromWestPokotanditsneighbouringCounties(WestPokot).Thesocio-culturaltensionsdonotseemtobeunmanageablebutsharingofCountyresources,which



mayinfuturereflectthehighamountsofKshs778Mof2009,mayreignitethedifferencesbetweenthetwomaincommunities.ThesharingofCountyresourcesshouldbesensitivetotherivalrybetweenthem.

NANDI COUNTY

NandiCountyissituatedintheformerRiftValleyProvinceandsharesborderswithKakamegaandVihigaCounties to theWest, KisumuCounty to the South, KerichoCounty to the South East andUasinGishuCountytoNorthandNortheast.Itoccupies2,884squarekilometerswithapopulationof752,965whopredominantlybelongtotheNandisubtribe(the2ndlargest)oftheKalenjincommunity.TherearecommunitiesfromtheneighbouringLuhya,KipsigisandLuobutinrelativelysmallnumbers.TheCountyhasbotharuralandanurbanpopulationwithtwoimportanttownsnamelyKapsabetandNandiHills.Kapsabetisthelargerofthetwowithapopulationofover86,000people.CurrentlytheCountyhasfourconstituencies:Emgwen,Tinderet,MosopandAldai.


TheNandi hold their legendary late leader, KoitalelArap Samoei in high esteem. The communityconstructed(belatedly)amausoleuminhonourofhimforhisheroicsduringtheresistanceoftheBritishcolonialrulewhenheledobjectionstotheconstructionofarailwaylinefromMombasatoKampalapassingthroughKalenjinland.

DuringtheeraoftheformerPresidentMoi,theNandipeoplewereloyaltohimandtherulingKANUparty.Since2002howeverthepicturehasbeenverydifferentbecausetheNandihaverefusedtofollowMoi’sadvice.In2007,theyvotedforODMandlongservingMoigovernmentloyalistsjoinedthepartyinvariouscapacities.

TheothercommunitiesfromneighbouringcommunitiessuchastheLuhya,KipsigisandLuodonothaveanymajorinfluenceonthepoliticsofNandiCounty.

ItiscriticalforCSOstomonitortheprogressoftheICCcaseasitmayaffectintercommunalrelationsontheground.

Security dimensions

During the electoral violence of 1992, 1997 and also during the PEV, this County has witnessedmassivedisplacementandforcibletransferofpopulation,especiallyoftheKikuyuethnicgroup.

Economic dimensions

ThemaineconomicactivitiesintheCountyareagriculture(cashcropfarming)anddairyfarming.Themajorcashcropgrownhereistea.DairyfarmingiscarriedoutthroughmodernmethodssuchaszerograzingandtheCountyhassomeofthehighestmilkyieldsintheCountry.BothteaandmilkbringthefarmersforeigncashearningstherebyimprovingthewealthlevelswithCountyranked20inthecountry.Therearemanysmallbusinessesrunbycommerciallyactivepeople.

TheCountyisservedbyagoodroadnetworkwith51%oftheroadsfoundtobegood/fairandtheEldoretInternationalAirport,whichisaugmentedbytheKakamegaairstrip.Bothmakeairtransportpossibleandimprovetimelinesforconductingbusinessthatrequirestravel.

NandiCountyisalsotheproudhomeCountyofworldfamousathletessuchastheiconicKipchogeKeino,HenryRono,MosesTanui,andBernardLagat(nowanAmericancitizen).TheathletesfromtheCountyhaveformedNandiRunners,whichistourismpromotionventure.Inadditiontotheirown



earningsfromtheworldathleticscircuit,theyarecontributingtohigherrevenuelevelbyencouragingtourism.

Legal dimensions

TheCounty is servedby theMagistrates’Courts located inKapsabetTownand theHighCourt innearbyEldorettown(withinUasinGishuCounty).


AsindicatedelsewheretheNandiarethesecondlargestsubtribeoftheKalenjincommunityaftertheKipsigis.ThoughtheneighbouringcommunitiessuchastheLuhya,KipsigisandLuohavesmallpopulationsintheCounty,therearenomajorconflictsbetweenthem.Therelativepeacemayarisefromthefactthatduetotheirsmallnumberstheymaynotbeableto influencethepoliticalandeconomicprocessesintheCounty.


NandiCountyis locatedinthehighlandareasoftheRiftValley.Ithasagoodclimateandreceivesmoderatetohighrainfallthroughouttheyearandisthereforealmostalwaysgreen.Thereforeisanabundanceoffoodandwaterwhichinturnmeansthereisalsolackofincentiveforconflict.

Conclusions

ItisnotexpectedthattherewillbemuchpoliticaltroubleinNandi.Nevertheless,thereisneedtoobservetheborderareaswithKakamegaandKisumuwheretherecouldbeflareups.

BARINGO COUNTY

BaringoCountyissituatedintheformerRiftValleyProvinceandsharesborderswithquiteanumberof neighbours namely,West Pokot, ElgeyoMarakwet,Nakuru, Laikipia andUasinGishu Counties.Itoccupies11,015squarekilometersandhasapopulationof555,561peoplewhopredominantlybelongtotheKalenjincommunity.

TheCountyhasbotha ruralandanurbanpopulationwithanumberof important townsnamelyKabarnet,EldamaRavine,Marigat,MajiMazuri,Mogotio,andTimboroa.Thereishoweverasmallnon-KalenjinpopulationespeciallytheKikuyufoundontheNakuru-EldorethighwayandaroundtheTimboroaarea.

CurrentlytheCountyhasfiveconstituencies:BaringoEast,BaringoNorth,BaringoCentral,EldamaRavineandMogotio.

Political Dimensions:

Politics inBaringoCounty isdominatedbypersonalities. PresidentMoiwas the secondPresidentoftheRepublicofKenyaandwasapatronoftheformerrulingpartyKANU(currentlyledbyhissonGideonMoi).Inthe2007generalelectionMr.GideonMoi,viedfortheBaringoCentralparliamentaryseatbutlost.

TheCountyhassomeminoritygroupssuchastheIlChamus,Ndorobo,Ogiekandotherhuntersandgathererswhichhavebeentryingtogettheirownconstituencytorepresenttheirpoliticalinterestsastheyclaimtobemarginalized.Theiragitationislikelytocontinueuntiltheirgoalisrealizedorsomeformofcompromiseisreached.



Thetwinpoliticalissuesidentifiedaboveshouldbescrutinizedandcloselymonitored.

Security Dimensions

AsindicatedintheintroductiontheCountysharesborderswithquiteanumberofneighboursnamely,WestPokot,ElgeyoMarakwet,Nakuru,LaikipiaandUasinGishuCounties.Someof itsneighbourshave serious security concerns, in particular the border between Baringo and West Pokot; andLaikipiaCountiesareporousandinthehandsofcattlerustlerswhoareinpossessionofsmallarms.CommunitiesfromthethreeCountieshabituallyraideachothertosteallivestock,andsometimestorape,commitarsonandkill.

ItispossiblethatthesmallarmsfoundintheCountycouldfindtheirwayintothehandsofmilitiasandindividualcriminalsaroundelectiontime.TheseshouldbeaconcerntothosemonitoringthesecuritysituationintheCounty.

Economic Dimensions:

TheprimaryeconomicactivityislivestockkeepingwithintheCountyandexternallywithsomeofitsaforementionedneighbours.WhenformerPresidentMoiwas inpower, thereusedtobeperiodicgoatauctionsthatraisedmillionsofshillings,butthatauctionisnomore.Thereisalsoaconsiderablelevelofbeekeepingandhoneyharvesting.

DespitebeingthehomeCountyofformerPresidentMoi(whoservedasPresidentfor24years),theCountyhasagenerallyloweconomicdevelopmentratewithlessthan10%ofthepopulationontheelectricitynationalgrid.Thereareveryfewtarmacroads.Thus,theCountyreliesheavilyonresourcestransfersfromthecentralgovernmentwhichtotalledoverKshs500millioninFY2008/9.

ItshouldbehowevernotedthatBaringoCountyhasanumberoftouristattractionswhichincludeLakesBaringoandBogoria. The LakeBaringoareahas awide rangeofbirdswhich are anaddedtouristattractionforbirdlovers.Tothisextenttheeconomicissuehasbeenhowincomemadefromthese tourist attractions shouldbe sharedwith the local community. The local communities tookthegovernmenttotheAfricanCourtofHumanandPeople’sRightsandwoninasuitrequiringthegovernmenttocompensatethemforgivinguplandforthetouristfacilities.

AsthelegislationforCountygovernmentsisdeveloped,thecommunitiesinBaringowilldefinitelykeepaneyeontheresourcesharingclausestoseewhethertheycomeoutaswinnersorlosers.

Legal Dimensions

TheCountyisservedbyMagistrate’scourtsbasedinKabarnettown.Duetothis,anumberofdisputescontinuetoberesolvedthroughtraditionaljusticemechanisms(providedbycommunityelders)toresolve conflicts. It is questionable whether thesemethods are adequate or appropriate for theresolutionofdisputesthatinvolvecattlerustling,arson,murderandothercrimes.


AsstatedearlierthepredominantcommunityinthisCountyistheKalenjin.AstheKalenjincommunitycomprisesseveralsubtribes,themajorityaretheTurgen,followedbyafewothers,thentheminorityIlChamus,Ogiek,andNdorobos.Betweenthemajorsub-groupsandtheminoritygroupstherearechargesofmarginalization.

TherearesomeKikuyuintheareaaroundTimboroaandontheNakuru-Eldorethighway.SomeofthesepeoplehadtheirhomesburnttothegroundduringthePEV.SomearestillinIDPcamps,and



citeinsecurityasareasonwhytheycannotgobacktotheirfarms.Thereisaperceptionthatthese‘foreigners’areresponsiblefortheKalenjin’s‘loss’ofland.

Thebadbloodbetweenthecommunities,generatedbywhattheKalenjinperceivetobehistoricallandinjustices,isunlikelytorelentbecauseofthepsychologicaltraumaandstressofthosewhowereaffectedorwhowitnessedwhathappenedtotheirneighboursespeciallyinBurntForest(whichwasseverelyaffected)andwhichisintheneighbouringUasinGishuCounty.


BaringoCountyispartlyaridandpartlysemi-aridwithfewwaterresources.Only35%ofthepopulationhasaccesstocleanwateragainstanationalaverageof66%.Theareaisthereforedrymostofthetimewithverylittlerainfallinthedryseason.TherearesomeseasonalriversintheCountybuttheseemergeonlyduringtherainyseason.

Whentherainyseasonssetsin,itpresentsnewproblems.Itcausesfloodingandmuchoftheloosetopsoil(fromtoomuchheat)iscarriedintothelakes.Inevitablythisleadstoconflictsascommunitieshavetofightforpastureandimprovetheirherdsintherainyseasons.Theseseasonsalsocoincidewithritesofpassagewhichcreatedemandforactivitiessuchascattlerustling.

Theconflictsthatariseinthesesituationsareforpastureandwater.Buttheyshouldbemonitoredincasetheymutateandtakeapoliticalform.

Conclusion

ThepoliticsofmajorandminorKalenjincommunitiesmaycausedividesthatmaymakepeaceableexistence difficult. The sharing of resources (at the National and County levels) will dominatediscussionsonthepoliticaleconomyoftheCounty.TheareatowatchespeciallyinrelationtoelectionsistheborderwithUasinGishuCounty.

LAIKIPIA COUNTYLaikipiaCounty is locatedontheEquator in theformerRiftvalleyprovinceofKenya. It lies in thenorthwestofthesnowcappedMt.Kenyaandcoversanareaofapproximately9,462squarekilometreswithapopulationof399,227.ItbordersSamburuCountytothenorth,IsioloCountytothenortheast,MeruandNyeriCountiestosouth,NyandaruaCountytothesouthwestandBaringoCountytothewest.ItcomprisesofcommunitiessuchastheKikuyu,Maasai,Kalenjin,Pokot,Samburu,Meru,Borana,Somali,Turkana,andincreasinglynonKenyanwealthylandowners.Whogiveitthecharacterof diversity. It has an urban but mostly rural population; the main urban centres are Nanyuki,Nyahururu,RumurutiandKinamba.CurrentlytheCountyhastwoconstituencies:LaikipiaWestandLaikipiaEast.


TherelationshipbetweenthecommunitiesinLaikipiaisunstable,marredbypoliticaldivisionsalongethniclinesandworsenedbycompetitionfortheeconomicresourcesespeciallylandandwater.Eachcommunityhasatendencytofollowitselectedleadersandpoliticalintoleranceishigh.

Thiscausesfrictionbetweendifferentcommunitieswhichholddifferentpoliticalideas.Thisiswhatinpartledtoandisexemplifiedbythetribalclashesthatrockedtheregionfollowingthe1997elections.Thisagain isexemplifiedby the1998 tribal clashes inLaikipia thatpitted theSamburuandPokotagainsttheKikuyu.76

76 Akiwumi Akilano, Commission of Inquiry Report on Tribal Clashes, at page 2.



Duetothesetrends,electionsinLaikipiaareinfluencedbytwofactors,partyloyaltyduringthesingleparty system and tribal kingpins after the advent ofmultipartyism. Politics in LaikipiaWest havebeendominatedgenerallybyasingleCommunityatparliamentarylevelwithallthesixMPssinceindependencebeing fromtheKikuyuCommunity. InLaikipiaEastConstituency,politicshavebeendominatedbytheKikuyuCommunitysinceindependenceapartfromabreakinthe1988electionswhereFrancisOleKaparowaselectedastheMemberofParliament(MP).

Security dimensions

Security,orratherlackofit,isamajorcauseofconcerninLaikipiaCounty.Thefirstcauseofinsecurityisthecattlerustlingbetweenpastoralistcommunities,especiallythePokotandtheMaasai,whichhasbeenaperennialheadachetotheKenyanSecurityapparatussinceindependence.

Thesecondistheproliferationofgunsandothersmallarms,duetotheCounty’svastuninhabitedareasandproximitytotheunstablenorthernpartofKenya.Thissituationisnothelpedbytheadventofhighwaybanditryandarmedrobberyintherecentyears.Thereisadearthofsecuritypersonnelandpresenceinthearea.

Economic dimensions

Economic activity in the County consistsmainly of grain crops,wheat, ranching; and greenhousehorticulture.Insomeseasonshoweverbirdsdodevastatingdamagetowheatfarmersbyeatingupmostoftheirwheatcrops.Economicallyspeaking,tensioniscausedbythehistoricallandquestionandcompetitionmainlyforscarcewaterresources.

In Laikipia and someneighbouring Counties cattle rustling is considered an economic activity forreplenishing livestock after losses caused by drought. This happens rather frequently betweenpastoralcommunitiessuchasSamburuandthePokot.

Legal dimensions

LaikipiaCountyisservedbytwoLawCourts.TheseareoftheChiefMagistratescourtstatusandarelocatedinNyahururuandNanyukitowns.TheyareusuallyreferredtoastheNyahururuandNanyukilawcourtsrespectively.AppealsondecisionsrenderedbythesecourtsareheardattheNakuruHighCourtstation.

AsnotedwithafewoftheotherCounties,theservicesprovidedbythejudiciaryarehardlyadequateforeffectiveconflictresolutionbetweenthediversecommunitiesthatinhabitLaikipiaCounty.


Asindicatedelsewhere,thesocio-culturaldynamicsinLaikipiaareintenseandadversarial.TheypitthedominantKikuyucommunityagainsttheMaasai,Kalenjin,Pokot,Samburu,Meru,Borana,SomaliandTurkana.Politicsisorganizedalongthedifferentculturalpoliticalunderstandingandpsychologicalposturesofsuperiority.


LaikipiaCountyhasacool,temperateclimatewithbothrainyanddryseasonsbutwiththeclimatebeingmainlydryandarid.Therearetwoconflictcategories inthisdimension,thehuman-wildlifeconflictsandtheintercommunityconflictsoverenvironmentalresources.

LaikipiaCountyisinfamousbecauseofthehuman-wildlifeconflictswitnessedinhumansettlements



borderinganimalsanctuariesandconservancies.

LaikipiaCountyisdottedwithforestsandconservancieshometowildanimals.Anappealhasbeenmade to KenyaWildlife Services (KWS) to employ permanentmeasures to stop human/ wildlifeconflicts in Laikipia County, sometimes back, farmers in Muramati location held demonstrationsagainstdestructionof their foodcropbyelephants.TheCounty is in theneighbourhoodof threeranchesonebeingLolDaigaandelephantsstrayintofarmsontheirtransitfromMt.Kenyatotheranch.Thelocalcommunitywhosemainlivelihoodisagriculturedependsonfaminerelieffooddueoccasionaldestructionoftheirfoodcropsbythejumbos.

When farmers pursue compensation they find that it is unrealistic in value as it does not reflectcurrentfinancial values. Tomake itworse,mostof the farmerswho suffer lossesdue tohuman-wildlifeconflictsarenotawareofthelegalmechanismsavailableforthepursuitofcompensationthusdoesnotgetcompensation.Compensationsinthiscasearedeterminedbydistrictbasedtribunals.However,thetribunalsawardafixedvalueforanyloss;valueswhichwerelastreviewedin1980sandthusdonotreflectthecurrenteconomicreality.

Due to the fact that LaikipiaCounty is apredominantlyarid region;water is a scarcenatural andenvironmental resource thus a cause of conflicts between communities living in the region. ThishappensmostlywheretheMaasai,PokotandSamburucommunitiesconflictoverwateringpointsfortheiranimalsduringdrought.

Conclusion

LaikipiaCountyshouldbemonitoredcloselyduetothediversityofitspopulationwhichisdistinctlylackinginharmony.Asindicatedthe1997/8periodwitnessedelectionrelatedviolenceandwhilethecountrywasthenledbyPresidentMoi,andtheMaasai,TurkanaandPokotfearedbeingdominatedbytheKikuyuinapost-MoiState;thoseearlierconflictsmaymutateandtakeadifferentfaultlineasthesociologyofconflictissuchthatitfestersandcanrecur.

Thereisalsotheissueofsmallarmsthatposeasecuritythreatiftheyshouldfindtheirwaytomilitiagroupsandunemployedyouth.Thesecouldbeusedtoperpetrateelectionrelatedviolence.

NAKURU COUNTYNakuruCountyissituatedonthefloorofRiftValleyProvinceandsharesborderswithBaringoandLaikipiaandNyandaruaCountiestotheNorthandNorthEastrespectively;itbordersNarokCountytotheSouthandBometandKerichoCountiestotheSouthWest;andKiambuandKajiadoCountiestoitsSouthEasterntip.CurrentlytheCountyhassixconstituencies:Naivasha,NakuruTown,Molo,Kuresoi,Subukia,andRongai.

TheCounty,amongthelargestintheCountry,occupies7,495squarekilometerswithapopulationof 1,603,325 (which is the 5th highest in the country). Nakuru County is clearly one of themostcosmopolitanCountiesinKenyaandishosttopeoplefromitsmanycommunities.ThemajorityofitsinhabitantsarefromtheKalenjincommunity(Turgens,Kipsigis)andMaasaiandtheKikuyu.OthercommunitiessuchastheKisii,LuoandLuhyahavealsosettledhere.

TheCountyhasabigurbanpopulationwithanevenbiggerruralpopulation.ItsurbanpopulationisfoundinimportanttownssuchasNakuru,Naivasha,Molo,Gilgil,Njoro,MaaiMahiu,SubukiaandDundoriamongmanyothers.




NakuruCountyisaverypoliticallysignificantCountyinKenya.SomehaveobservedthatiftheCountysneezes,othersinthecountrycatchacold.ItisthefaceofKenyainitsbeauty(andugliness).ItisinNakuruthatthefirstPresident,MzeeJomoKenyatta,gavehiskeynoteaddressafterindependence,entitledturudimashambani(letusgobacktoourfarmsandwork).

Whenever tribal animosities arise in Kenya, Nakuru County is usually the epicentre and the PEVfollowedthattrendwithdevastatingresults.

Security dimensions

Thepoliticaldimensiondovetailsintothesecuritydimension.NakuruCountysuffersserioushistorical,physical andpsychological securityproblems. Someof theseare rooted in contested land claims,whicharepartlybasedonthefearthattheothercommunitywilltakeoverallthelandoftheother(atleasteventually).

HistoricallyelectionshavebeenviewedinKenyaasacompetitionbetweencommunitiesordifferentethnic groups. This trend merits monitoring and a comprehensive early warning and mitigationsystem.

Apart from land claims, the other possible trigger for security concerns is the high number ofunemployedyouthintheCounty.Itisawellknownfactthatunemployedyouthareusefultofactionalfightingastheycanveryeasilybemobilizedasfootsoldiers.

There isalsothe issueof insecurityarisingfromthefactthatNakuruCountybordersBaringoandLaikipia(whichinturnborderWestPokot,TurkanaandSamburu)whichhaveaccesstosmallarms.ShouldthesesmallarmsfindtheirwayintoNakuruCounty,aseriousthreattosecuritymayarise.

Economic dimensions

TheCountyhasvarioustouristattractionssuchasMenengaiandLongonotmountains,LakeNakuru,LakeNakuruNationalPark,Hell’sGatereserve,LakesElementaitaandLakeNaivashatomentionbutafew.TheCountyalsohasprivateranchesandhospitalitycentres.ThesebringinalotofmoneytotheCountycontributingtomakingitoneoftherichestinKenya.

Moreover,thereisextensivedairyfarming,commercialwheatandmaizefarming.TheCountyalsohasmajor road transport carrierswhich takeadvantageof thehighway to carryout the lucrativebusiness.

OverthelastfewyearshorticulturehasbecomealeadingforeignexchangeearnerforKenya.SomeofthisbusinessisbasedintheshoresofLakeNaivasha.Thebusinesseshereemploy,notunliketheteaestatesofKerichoCounty,migrantsfromtheLuhya,LuoandKisiicommunities,afactorwhichhasledtothegrowthinpopulationofthesecommunities.ItwouldberemissnottomentionfishingasoneoftheeconomicactivitiesintheCounty.

Legal dimensions

TheCourtofAppealsitsinNakuruonitscircuitrytourofthecountrywhenhearingappellatematters.TheCountyhasaHighCourtbasedinNakuruandhasMagistrates’courtsinNakuru,Naivasha,andMoloamongothers.GiventhattheCountyhasbothaveryhighurbanandruralpopulation,andisamongthebiggest insize,thenumberofpeoplewhocanavailthemselvesofthejudicialservicescouldbelimited.



This situation is not helped by the delays in the hearing of disputes submitted to the judiciary.Consequently,therearemanymattersthatarepossiblynotsubmittedtothecourtsforfearofdelaysandthesecouldbesubjectedtoalternativedisputeresolutionwhichmayonlypartiallysettlethem.Some conflictsmay also remain unresolved. Either of these has the potential to accentuate riftsbetweendisputingparties.


TherearevariouscommunitiesinthisCounty:theKalenjin(Kipsigis,TurgenandMaasai),theKikuyuandothercommunitiesrepresentedbymigrantworkers.

Inaddition,thereisfightingoverlandwhichhasbeengoingonforlong.Inthisregard,landclaimspitKipsigisandTurgenagainsttheKikuyuontheonehand;andtheMaasaiagainsttheKikuyuontheother.TobesuretheMaasaiandKalenjinfeellandintheCountybelongstothemandtheirKikuyuneighboursareimpostors:thatis,theyhaveadubiousclaimtotheland.ObviouslytheKikuyuhaveadiametricallyopposedviewtotheMaasaiandKalenjinclaims.Andthesecompetingclaimsonlandaccentuatepsychologicalinsecuritiesharbouredbythecommunitiestocreateatickingtimebomb.


PartsofNakuruCountyaresemi-aridandassuchdonotreceivesufficientrainfall. Indryseasons.Thesepartsalsosufferdisproportionatelyintherainseasonastheyfloodduetotheflatnatureoflandandpoordrainagesoils.Thisthreathastwoeffects;oneitdestroystheinfrastructuresuchastheMaiMahiuroadtoNairobi;andtwo,itmayreducethenumberofwildanimalsavailableintheparksthroughnaturalattritionaccentuatedbyseveresemi-aridconditions.

Climatic changes have also adversely affected the lakes in the region. Lakes such as ElementaitaNakuruandNaivashahavebeenshrinking.Thishasstartedtocauseanecologicalimbalanceinthehabitatsforbirdssuchasflamingoswhicharepartofthetouristattractions.LakeNaivashahasintherecentpastalsobeenaffectedbyhyacinthattackswhichhavemadefishingasaneconomicactivitydiminished.

The climatic changeshavealsobeenaidedby the inabilityof the countryat large tomaintainorincreaseitsforestcover.IftheseclimaticchangesarenotcheckedNakuruCountyanditspeoplearelikelytosufferwatershortageinthemediumtolongterm.Suchasituationwillonlyaddfiretothefuelcreatedbyethnicanimositiesasthesamecommunitieswillnowhavetofightoverwater.

It should be noted that because of its tourist attractions there is the expected battle betweenconservationistsandlocalcommunities.Theissueofcompensationfordestroyedcrops,injuriesbywildanimalsandevendeathsmayarisefromtimetotime.

Conclusion

ThewholeCountyshouldbemonitoredcloselyforbothhistoricalandcontemporaryreasons.Theseparatebutcompetingclaimsto landbytheMaasaivis-à-vis theKikuyu;andbytheKipsigisandTurgensvis-à-vistheKikuyuwhenlacedwiththefightforpoliticalpowerarearisk.Thereisalsoagrowingmigrantworkingpopulation inareassuchasNaivashawhohavesomepolitical influence.TheramificationsoftheICCelevatingMessrs.KenyattaandMuthaurafrombeingsuspectstoaccusedpersonsneedstobemonitoredcloselyasitmayaffectinter-communalrelations.



NAROK COUNTYNarokCountyissituatedintheformerRiftValleyProvinceofKenyaandsharesborderswithNakuruCountytotheNorth,RepublicofTanzaniatotheSouth,KajiadoCountytotheEast,andBometandKisiiCountiestotheWest.Itoccupies17,933squarekilometerswithapopulationof850,920peoplewhopredominantlybelong to theMaasaicommunity.Theothercommunities foundhereare theKipsigis,theKisii,andtheKikuyu.

TheCountyhasbotha ruralandanurbanpopulationwithanumberof important townsnamelyNarok,Kilgoris,NairagieEnkareandLolgorian.ThelargestoftheseisNarokwithapopulationofover38,000people.CurrentlytheCountyhasthreeconstituencies:NarokSouth,NarokNorthandKilgoris.


ThepoliticsofthisCountyaredrivenbothbypersonalitiesandpoliticalparties.IntheMoiera,thepeoplesupportedtheformerPresidentMoiandKANU.Sincehisretirement,thedefactoleaderoftheMaasaicommunityhasbeenWilliamOleNtimama,whoisthecurrentMinisterforNationalHeritageandalsoaformerministerinformerPresidentMoi’sgovernment.Inthe2007generalelectionsheledthecommunitytotheODMsideinsupportofOdingaandRuto.TodayNtimamahasadvancedinyearsandthereisarealpossibilitythatnewMaasaileaderswillemergetotakeoverthemantlefromhim.

TheMaasaihavealwayshadgrievanceoverlandvis-à-vistheKikuyucommunity.Electoralpoliticsisinfluencedbythisgrievanceandislikelytocontinueinthecomingelections.

Security dimensions

TheborderbetweenKisiiandNarokCountiesisofparticularconcernsecuritywise.TheKilgorisareahasknownviolencesincethereturnofmulti-partypoliticsinKenya.TheMaasaiandtheKisiifightover scarcepastures andeven scarcerwater;with thefights intensifyingduring electionperiods.TheselandgrievancesbetweentheMaasaiandtheKikuyuandtheKisiirespectivelydefinetheethnicfaultsthatfollowthelandquestionmanifestingthemselvesasabasisforpoliticalchoicesandneedtobemonitored.

Economic dimensions

NarokisarichCountywithlargefarmingscaleofwheat,barleyandmaizeforcommercialpurposes.Theweatherisverygoodinthemiddleandnorthernpartsaffordingagriculturalpracticesonflatlandaboon.

In addition, there is livestock farming.As seenwithneighbouring KajiadoCounty,Maasai believerearingof largeherds of cattle and goats is part of their cultural practice. In the Southernparts,especiallyKilgorisconstituency,there isscarcityofpastureandwaterthusthefightsbetweentheMaasaiandKisiioverthetwo.

Moreover,theworldfamousMaasaiMaragamereserveislocatedintheCounty.Ofcourseitisthehomeoftheeighthwonderoftheworld:thewildebeestmigration.TheMaasaiMaragamereserve,theMaasaiCultureandthewildlifeintheCountybringithighrevenuesmakingtheCountyCouncilofNarokamongtherichestintheCountryandhenceNarokCountyisricherthanmostoftheCountiesinKenya.

Legal dimensions

TheCountyisservedbytheMagistratesCourtsinNarokandKilgoris.Itisclearfromobservationof



thegeographicalsizeoftheCountyandthespreadofitspopulationthatthismaynotbeenoughtoresolveconflictsthatmayarisebetweenresidentcommunities.


ThesecondbiggestcommunityaftertheMaasaiinNarokistheKipsigis,followedbytheKikuyuandtheKisii.ThereislittleornofrictionbetweentheMaasaiandtheKipsigisandthereforeatmosttimethere ispeacebetweenthem.Thesamecannotbesaidof theother twocommunitieswhichareconsidered‘invaders’oflandorlandgrabbersandhasledtodisplacementofpeopleinthepastthusthereisneedtomonitorthesituation.


Inevitablythehumanwildlifeconflict isrife intheCounty inareasaroundtheMaasaiMaragamereserve.ThisiscompoundedbythedemandsbythelocalMaasaicommunitytoshareintherevenuesthatcomefromthereserve.TheMaasaicommunityisnoworganizingitselftoblockadethearrivaloftouristsleadingtogovernmentactiontoincreaseparamilitarypolicetosecurethepark.

NarokisawaterdeficitCountywithonly33%ofitspeoplehavingaccesstocleanwater.Wheneverthereisdroughtconditionsworsenwithlivestockfarmingleadingtolanddegradationsusceptibletofloodingwhenrainscome.

Conclusion

WithoutanydoubttheborderareasbetweenKilgorisinNarokCountyandKisiiCounty;andNarokNorth(KikuyuorMaasai)shouldbemonitoredbecausethelandquestionisyettoberesolved.

KAJIADO COUNTY

KajiadoCountyissituatedintheformerRiftValleyProvinceandsharesborderswithNarokCountytotheWest,KiambuandNairobiandMachakosCountiestotheNorth,andMakueniandTaitaTavetaCountiestotheEast.Itoccupies21,901squarekilometersbuthasapopulationof687,312andisthe9thbiggestCountyinKenya.MostofitsruralpopulationcomprisesoftheMaasaibutmajortribesarewellrepresentedinthepopulationfoundinthemainurbancentres.Manyoftheselattermembershaveboughtparcelsoflandandsettledinsomeparts.

TheCountyhasbotha ruralandanurbanpopulationwithanumberof important townsnamelyNgong’,Kitengela,OngataRongai,Kiserian,Kajiado,LoitokitokandNamanga,amongothers.ItshouldbenotedthattheCountysharesaborderofconsiderablelengthwiththeRepublicofTanzaniaandasaresultitmayhavesomeuniqueattributessuchashavingNamangaborderpointasagateway.CurrentlytheCountyhasthreeconstituencies:KajiadoNorth,KajiadoCentralandKajiadoSouth.


TheCounty’spoliticsaredominatedbytheleading‘Maasai’politicianssuchasProf.GeorgeSaitoti(aformerVicePresidentforoveradecadeunderformerPresidentMoi)andWilliamOleNtimama(fromneighbouringNarokCounty).HistoricallytheMaasaihavetendedtobehomogeneousintheirpoliticalleaningsandforalongtimethismeanttheywereinsupportofformerPresidentMoiandhisKANUregime.However,afterMoi’sretirementin2002theMaasaihomogeneityhasbeentestedtothelimitwiththeMaasaiinNarokCounty(ledbyNtimama)takingtothe(firsttoNarcthen)ODMpartywhereasthoseinKajiado(ledbySaitoti)goingwiththePNU.



Security dimensions

TherearenomajorsecurityissuesintheruralpartsofthisCounty.ThesituationishoweverdifferentintheurbanareassuchasNgongandOngataRongaiwherethepopulationcomprisesmanydiversecommunities.Therehasbeenviolencebeforeelectionsinpreviousyearsandtheupcomingelectionsmaynotbeanydifferent.

ThegeneralsecurityoftheNgong’andOngataRongaiareasisnotgood.Therearearmedthugsthatbreakintopeople’shousesandcarjackmotoristsusingsmallarms.

Economic dimensions

TheeconomyoftheCountythrivespartlyontourismandpartlyonlivestockfarming.Asfarastourismisconcernedthemajor touristattractionsare theRiftValleyescarpment, tropicalwildlifeandtheMaasaiMaragame.KajiadosharesexpansivesavannahplainswithneighbouringNarokCountyandSerengetigamereserveinTanzania.TouristscanalsoapproachMountainsKilimanjaroandMerufromKajiadoCountythroughthebordertownofNamanga.TheAmboseliNationalGameParktomentionbutone is located intheCounty.ThetouristattractioncentresprovideemploymentandgeneraterevenuefortheCounty.

Thereiswidespreadlivestockfarming,mainlycattleandgoatrearing.ThishasmadetheCountyasuitable location forabattoirs forprocessingmeatproducts for localandexportmarkets.Further,theCountyhasamajorroadthatrunsfromNairobitoNamanga(inKenya)andtoMoshiandArusha(inTanzania)andbacktotheKenyanborderinTaveta.TheNamanga-ArusharoadalsoleadstothecapitalofTanzania,Dar-es-Salaam.ThistrunkroadbeliesthedearthofgoodroadsastheCountyonlyhas38%roadsareratedasgoodorfair.Apartfromtheroadnetwork,theCountyhasasmallairporttoservetourism.

Kajiadoisarelativelydevelopedconstituencyinitsurbanareasevidencedbytheaccessby39%ofitsinhabitantstoelectricityand71%tocleanwater.

Legal dimensions

TheCountyisservedbytheMagistratesCourtswhicharelocatedinKajiadoTown.ConsideringthehugesizeoftheCounty,thesecourtsarenotsufficientandasaresultmanyofthearisingconflictsaresettledthroughtraditionalmethodsinwhichpenaltiesarepaidthroughlivestock.


TheMaasaicommunity is thepredominantoneandoneofthenotablefactsabout it is itsstrongculturalheritage.ThiscanbeeasilyobservedthroughtheMaasaiculturaldress,hairstyles,earpiercingformen,‘elevation’dances,huts,initiationceremoniesandexquisiteheadgear.TheparticipationofwomenindecisionmakingisstilllowandharmfulculturalpractisessuchasFGMandearlymarriagespersistalthoughondecline.

LivestockrearingisalsoamajoraspectofMaasaiculture.TheMaasaiarefondofrearinglargeherdsofcattleandgoats.TheothercommunitiesthatinhabittheCountysuchastheKamba,KikuyuandTaveta are more concerned with running small to medium businesses in various spheres of theeconomy.Assuchtherearefewculturalconflictswithbetweenthecommunities.


TheclimateintheCountyismostlysemi-aridwithrainfallamountsrangingbetweenlowsof500mm



uptohighsof1,250mmofrainfallperyear.Asaconsequenceoftheseclimaticconditionswildlifethrivesinthearea.RecentdroughtsinKenyahaveaffectedtheCountyharderthanbeforebecauseit(drought)haslastedlongermeaninglittleornorainforprolongedperiods.Thegeneraleffectshavebeenlossoflivestockthroughdeath;degradationofthelandthroughmigrationinsearchofpasturesandtoevadefloodswhentherainsresume.

TheinevitableconsequenceofdifferentgroupsofMaasaiherdsmenmovingfromplacetoplaceintheCountyinsearchofpastureisconflictoverthesame(pastures)andwater.Inadditiontoconflictthereiswidespreadlanddegradationresultingfromlargeherdsofcattlemigrationsinsearchofpasture.

Conclusion

TherearefewpoliticalandsecurityproblemswiththisCounty.OnlytheurbanareassuchNgongandOngataRongaishouldtobemonitoredforbothhistoricalandcontemporaryreasons.The levelofcrimeinthetwourbancentresismediumtohighwithsmallarmsbeinginvolved.

KERICHO COUNTY

KerichoCountyissituatedintheformerRiftValleyProvinceandsharesborderswithNakuruCountytotheEast,KisumuCountytotheWest,BometandNyamiraCountiestotheSouth,NandiCountyto theNorthWestandBaringoandUasinGishuCounties to theNorth. Itoccupies2,479squarekilometersandhasapopulationof758,339peoplewhoarepredominantlyoftheKipsigissub-groupoftheKalenjincommunity.Initially,beforethePEV,membersoftheKikuyucommunityhadsettledmainlyintheKipkelionandLondianiareas.MembersoftheKisiicommunitycouldalsobefoundinNyagachoinKerichotown.Butmostofthese(non-Kipsigis)leftaftertheviolence.

The important towns in theCounty includeKericho,Kipkelion,LondianiandKabuti.Thereforethemajorityof thepopulation is ruralbasedas thepopulation inurbancentres is justover200,000.CurrentlytheCountyhasfourconstituencies:Kipkelion,Belgut,Ainamoi,andBureti.


Kerichohasaveryhomogenousapproachtopolitics.ThisarisesfromthefactthatavastmajorityofitsinhabitantsareoftheKipsigissubtribeoftheKalenjincommunityanddonothavetodealwithfractionsthataccompanyinter-communallypopulatedCounties.InthepastthepeopleofthisareaalignedthemselveswiththeformerrulingpartyKANUandhomogenoussupportforformerPresidentDanielMoi.

SinceMoileftofficein2002andpriortothePEV,thepoliticaldynamicshavefirsttakenthecommunitytotheODMpartyunderOdingaandRuto;andlatertotheUnitedDemocraticFront(UDF)afterthefalloutbetweenthesetwo.WhenRutofailedinhisbidtotakeovertheUDF,heformedtheURPofwhichheistheobviouspresidentialcontender.

As in other Couties in the Rift Valley, it is critical that the outcome of the ICC process is closelymonitoredasitmayaffectinter-communalrelations.

Security dimensions

KerichoCountyisafairlysecureCounty.TheexceptionistheareasofKipkelionandLondiani,whichhosted majority of the Kikuyu community. These two areas must concern anyone interested inpreventingfutureconflictastheKikuyuhereareviewedasoutsidersandmaybeisolatedpoliticallyandeconomicallyleadingtorenewedconflictsbetweenthetwocommunities.AnotherareathatmaybeofconcernistheNyagachoareainKerichotown,occupiedmainlybymembersoftheKisiiethnic



group.ThesewereattackedinthePEVthereforetheareashouldbemonitored.

Economic dimensions

The County is host to hugemultinational companies in the commercial business of tea farming.SomeoftheseteacompaniesincludeJamesFinlay,UnileverandWilliamson.Thecompaniesprovideemployment tomanymigrantworkers fromtheLuhya,Kisii andLuocommunities.Thesemigrantworkers tend togivepolitical support tocandidates fromtheirowncommunities, contrary to theKipsigiscommunity,thoughthishasnotbeenshowntoaffecttheteaeconomy.

KerichoCountyreceivedapproximatelyKshs505millionfordiversedevelopmentalpurposesincludingruralelectrification,roadsandconstituencydevelopment.Ithasgoodroadssurpassingthenationalaverageofgood/fairroadsby15.3%tostandat58.5%.Thismaybeattributedtothebenefitsderivedfrompreviousregimesandthepresenceofcommercialteafarmingwhichrequiresgoodmeansoftransporttofactoriesandtotheairportsforexport.

Legal dimensions

TheCountyisservedbyaHighCourtbasedinKericho.Italsohasmagistrates’courtsinadditiontotheHighCourt.Theseinstitutionsareaugmentedbythemagistrates’courts inneighbouringSotikandBomet.WhilethejudiciarymayseemcloseenoughtomembersoftheCounty,itisawellknownfactthatthejudiciaryinKenyaonlyservesabout30%oftheKenyanpopulation.Itfollowsthatthepeopleuseothermeansofdisputesettlementwhichmaynothavejusticeatitscentrebutfocusonpromotingreconciliation.


The Kipsigis are clearly the dominant community despite the modest presence of migrant teaplantation workers from the Luhya, Luo, and Kisii communities; and the presence of Kikuyus inLondianiandKipkellion.Migrantworkersusuallyreturntotheir‘homelandCounties’tovote.Athreatisposedtothosenon-Kipsigis(especiallytheKikuyu)whohaveinvestedintheareasaroundKipkelionandLondiani,asthesemaybetargetedfor‘opposing’theirhostcommunity.


KerichoissituatedinthehighlandsofKenyawithintheRiftValley.ThesehavesomeofthemostfertilelandsinKenyawithreceiptsofrainfallmostoftheyear.Asaconsequence,theCountyisoneofthemostgreeninthecountry.

Conclusion

Thefocus inKerichoCountyshouldbeonNyagacho(Kerichotown),KipkelionandLondianiurbancentresandthesurroundingareas.ThesetwoareasmustconcernanyoneinterestedinpreventingfutureconflictastheKikuyus(someofwhohavesinceleftthearea)hereareviewedasoutsidersand may be isolated politically and economically leading to renewed conflicts between the twocommunities.

BOMET COUNTY

BometCountyissituatedintheformerRiftValleyProvinceandsharesborderswithNyamira,Narok,Nakuru and Kericho Counties. It occupies 2,471 square kilometers only and has a population of724,186peoplewhopredominantlybelongtotheKipsigissubtribeoftheKalenjincommunity.TheCountyhasbotharuralandanurbanpopulationwithanumberofimportanttownsnamelyBomet,



LiteinandSotik.ThereisamajortarmacroadthatrunsthroughBomettoKisiiandNairobi.

TheCounty isdenselypopulatedandamong its inhabitantsareamodestnumberofmembersoftheMaasaiandespeciallyKisiicommunities.CurrentlytheCountyhasfourconstituenciesnamely:Bomet,Sotik,ChepalunguandKonoin.


TheCounty’spoliticsareexemplifiedbythehighturnoverofmembersofparliamentinChepalunguconstituency. This constituency seems to elect a new member every election year. The currentMemberofParliament(MP)isMr.IsaacRuto,whoisastaunchsupporterandfollowerofMr.WilliamRutowhohaspresidentialambitions.

Intheyearsgoneby,thisCountywasfirmlyinformerPresidentMoi’sKANUandwasconsidereda“safe”politicalconstituencybecauseithasahomogenousapproachtopoliticalmobilizationwhichmayleadtothepoliticalisolationofthenon-KalenjinpeoplewithintheCounty.

Security dimensions

TheproblemsbetweentheneighbouringKisiiandKipsigiscommunitiesontheborderbetweenBometandNyamiraCountiesarewelldocumented.Therehavebeenfightsbetweenthetwocommunitiesoverlandandlivestockthefts;thesehaveeventuallyspilledintopolitics.InthePEV,somemembersoftheKisiitribewereattackedandtheirpropertiesdestroyedandhencebecameIDPs.Therearereportsthatsomewereevenkilled.Thisareashouldbewatchedclosely.

Economic dimensions

BometCounty is an agriculturally rich and fertile area; there aremany farmershere. Konoin andBomet constituencies grow teawhich earns thema lot ofmoneywhere someof this is donebymulti-nationals);thereisalsoextensivedairyfarming.AreaslikeChepalunguhaveaslightlydifferentclimate,withclaysoilandrequirewaterpanstocollectrainwaterforlivestockrearing(indryweather)andthesehavebeenprovidedmainlythroughuseofgovernmentfunds.TheCountyreceivedaroundKshs583Mfromgovernmentalauthoritiesfordevelopment.Regardless,only4.3%ofhouseholdsintheCountyareontheelectricitynationalgrid.

Legal dimensions

TheCountyisservedbyMagistratescourtslocatedinBometandSotik.Giventhehighpopulationdensityofthepeoplehere,thecourtsmaynotbeabletoresolveallthearisingconflictsbetweenindividuals.EldersfromtheKipsigisandtheneighbouringKisiicommunitysometimescometogetherthroughvariouscommitteestotryandresolvedisputesconcerninglandandlivestock.

Socio-cultural dimensions

Theissuesheremainlyconcerntheintegrationofthenon-KalenjincommunitiesintothepredominantKipsigiscultureandsocialorganizations.Theintegrationhasnotbeenverysuccessfuleventhoughthere is evidence of inter-marriages betweenmembers of different communities.When conflictsarisetheytendtofollowthefaultscreatedbyculturaldifferencesandareoftenaccentuatedbytheethnicitydrivenpolitics.


MostoftheCountyisservedbymanyallseasonrivers.Afewareasaredrythoughinthehotseasons(mostlyChepalungu)andherethereispotentialforconflictovergrazingandwatersources.



Conclusion

Forelectionpurposes,monitoringoftheneighbouringconstituenciesinNyamiraandBometCounties(inthiscase,NyamiraandSotik)willbecritical.

KAKAMEGA COUNTY

KakamegaCountyhasapopulationof1,660,651andis3,051squarekilometersandisthesecondmostpopulousCounty.ThedominantcommunityistheMaragolisub-groupoftheLuhyaalongwithothersmallLuhyasub-groups.KakamegaCountyhasnineconstituencies;namely,Butere,Mumias,Matungu,Khwisero,Lurambi,Ikolomani,Malava,ShinyaluandLugari


KakamegaregardsitselfasthepoliticalcapitalofthecurrentWesternProvinceandbasicallyservesasthepoliticalbarometeroftheregion.TheCountywasdominatedbyKANUpriortothe2002electionswhichbroughtNARCtopower.NewFordKenyaandODMarethedominantparties.

KakamegaCountywasaflashpointduringthe2007/8postelectionviolencewithriotsanddisplacementofcommunitiesperceivedtobeantiODM.ThecurrentpoliticsaredominatedbytherivalryrelatedtothenextgovernoroftheCounty.Theareaislargelyhomogenousandanycommunityrivalrywilllikelybereflectedinclan-basedpolitics.

Economic Dimensions

Themain industry is sugar processing;Mumias Sugar Company, Kenya’s largest sugar producer isfoundinthecounty.Thecompanyhasbeenbesetbychallengesrelatedtolowpaymenttofarmersandlateharvesting.OtherfactoriesareButaliandWestKenyaSugarcompanies.Othercashcropsaretobacco,coffee,sugarcaneandcotton.KakamegacurrentlyservesastheprovincialheadquartersforWesternprovinceandisthehuboftheregion.Kakamegatownisthelargestandmostdevelopedtownintheprovince.Finally,Kakamegathrivesoneco-tourismbasedontheKakamegarainforest.

Security Dimensions

TheCountywashitby thePEV.Minority immigrantcommunitiesperceived tobeanti-ODMweredisplacedandtheirpropertydestroyed.Inaddition,alargenumberofpeoplewereshotandkilledbypolice.Kakamegaalsohasatraditionallyhighcrimerate.

Social Dimensions

Kakamega has a high populationwhichmeans that services are overstretched. Only 1 out every10peoplehassecondaryeducationandonly3outevery10womendeliverinahealthcarecentreattendedbyaqualifiedprofessional.BothasruralandurbanCounty,Kakamegahasahighlydiversepopulation, and indeedmore or less a cosmopolitan population, where evenminorities such asKikuyu,Kamba,KalenjimandalsoLuoenjoylivelihoodsbasedonvariousindustriesthrivinginthisCounty.

Legal Dimensions

TheCountyhas16judicialofficersand5courtstations.Itsratioof100,000citizensperHighCourt



judgeis8.3,thefourthhighestinKenyaagainstanationalaverageof8.6.77


Thehighpopulation growthhas resulted in severe environmental degradation, deforestation andsoilerosion(KakamegaDistrictStrategicPlan2005-2011,MinistryofPlanning).KakamegaalsohostsKenya’sonlyrainforest,whichissubjectofongoingconservationefforts.

Conclusion

There is low likelihood of any sustained conflicts. Most of the tensions revolve around politicalcompetitionandattimestheseturnviolent.TheCountyrequiresmoderatesurveillanceintherunuptothenextelections

VIHIGA COUNTY

Vihiga County is the smallest County within the formerWestern Province, with a population of554,622andanareaof531squarekilometers. Itcurrentlyhas4constituencies;that is,Emuhaya,Hamisi,SabatiaandVihiga.


Vihigapolitics isdominatedby thepoliticsof theMudavadidynasty.MusaliaMudavadi tookoverfromthepatriarch,MosesMudavadi,alifelongKANUpolitician.KANUdominatedthepoliticalsceneuntilNARCcametopowerin2002.MudavadilostthatelectiononaKANUticketbutcamebackin2007,thistimeunderODM.TheCountyislargelypopulatedbytheMaragolicommunityaswellastheBunyoreandothersmallLuhyasub-groups.

Economic Dimensions

Vihigaisextremelydenselypopulated.Themainstayoftheeconomyissubsistenceagricultureaswellassmallscalecashcropfarming.ThemainfactoryisatMudete.Otheractivitiesincludesmallscaletrading.

Legal Dimensions

Vihiga has 2 court stations and no high court station it has a ratio of 185,000 persons per courtstations,againstanationalaverageof165,000percourtstation.78Thisisanextremelylowlevelofjudicialaccess


The high population has put pressure on the environment with high levels of soil erosion andenvironmentaldegradation.

Conclusion

ThereislittlelikelihoodofanywidespreadandsustainedconflictintheCountyandthustheCountyisoflowpriorityinthisregard

77 Sharmit Lamba, Topographical Analysis of the Law Courts of Kenya – Mazingira Institute 201178 Ibid



BUNGOMA COUNTYBungomaCountyissituatedinWesternKenyaanditoccupies3,953squarekilometers.79TheCountyhas a population of 1,630,934 persons.80 There are 4main sub-ethnic communities of the Luhya‘nation’:thatis,Bukusu,Sabaot,TachoniandTura.


PoliticsinBungomahastraditionallybeendominatedbythenumerousBukusucommunities.Sincethebeginningofmulti-partydemocracy in1992,theBukusuhavebeen identifiedwithoppositionpolitics. ThepresenceofmajorBukusufigures likeMichaelWamalwa ‘Kijana’ andMukhisaKituyiintheoriginalForumforRestorationofDemocracy(FORD)anditssplinterFORD-Kenyafueledthisperception.WithWamalwatakingontheleadershipofFORD-KenyafromJaramogiOginga,thepartydominatedthearea.

WiththedeathofWamalwaandtheprecedingintra-partytroubles,thepartybegantodeclineandtheODMbecamedominant,winningmostoftheseatsonofferinthelastelections.ODMhasalong-standingrivalrywithNewFordKenya,apartystrugglingtogaindominanceinWesternKenya.81

Security Dimensions

The major security concern in Bungoma County involves Mt. Elgon constituency. Long-standingdisputesandclaimsescalated in2005whensomemembersof theSabaot community startedaninsurgencyunderthebanneroftheSabaotLandDefenceForce(SLDF).Thedisputerevolvedaroundabotched landresettlementprogramme in theChebyukarea.According toHumanRightsWatch,MwatikhoCentre for Torture Survivors andWesternKenyaHumanRightsWatch: “from2006 theSabaotmilitia ...killedmorethan600peopleandterrorizedthe localpopulationthroughphysicalassaultsandthreats,andtheseizureanddestructionofproperty.”82

In2008,theKenyaArmywasdeployedtoquelltheinsurgency.Thisoperationwaswidelycriticizedbuttheinsurgencylargelyended.Althoughnormalcyhasbeenrestored,thedisputeisstillunresolvedandtheattendantsituationneedstobemonitored.

Bungomaalsosuffersfrominsecurityrelatedtocoffeesmuggling.Casesoftheftofcoffeebeansfromfarmersunionshaveescalatedovertherecentpast.Thesecasesinvolveextremelyviolentgangs,withsuspectedcomplicityofthesecurityforcesandtheprovincialadministration.83

Economic Dimensions

Bungomaisahighlydenseareawith454peoplepersquarekilometers.Overhalfofthepopulationisconsideredtobelivinginpoverty(CRA,2012).Themainstayofthelocaleconomyisagriculture–eithersmallscalecoffeegrowingandsugarorsubsistencefarming.ThemainindustriesareNzoiaSugarandthetroubledPanpaperMills.Thecoffeeindustryisbedeviledbytheftandlackoffactoriesforvalueaddition.Thesugarsectorofferslowreturnsforfarmers.Therehavebeenattemptstore-openthePanpaperMillsbutthisprocesshasbeensloweddownbyanumberoffactorsamongthemcorruptionclaims.

79 Kenya: County Fact Sheets – Commission on Revenue Allocation, 2012, pg 280 Ibid pg 281 Interview with Robert Wanyonyi – Standard Media Group Journalist82 Visit, http://www.hrw.org/en/news/2008/04/02/kenya-army-and-rebel-militia-commit-war-crimes-mt-elgon, accessed 23rd February 201283 Release Political Prisoners (RPP), Report of Bungoma Town Hall meeting (January 15, 2012) [Unpublished]



Legal Dimensions

Bungoma County has 1 High Court with a High Court/100,000 ratio of 16.3 against the nationalaverageof8.6.Thereare11judicialofficersincludingMagistratesandaKadhi.84Thisindicateslowlevelsofaccesstothejudicialsystem.


TheBukusuhavebeenseenasthedominantcommunityinBungoma–bothpoliticallyandinotherarenas.Inaddition,theclanandethnicdynamicsinMt.Elgonneedtobemonitoredclosely.


Bungomahasarelativelygoodclimateandagriculturalactivitiesdominatethelocaleconomy.However,thedensepopulationinsomeareasmayposeenvironmentalchallenges.Inaddition,PanpaperMillshasbeenaccusedofcausingpollutionintheWebuyearearesultinginhealthchallengesamongthelocalpopulation.

Conclusion

Thepotentialforre-emergenceoftheinsurgencyandthealienationofminoritiesfromeconomicandpoliticallifeinBungomaraisesthepotentialofconflictinBungomatoHigh.

BUSIA COUNTY

BusiaCountyhasapopulationof488,075andasizeof1,134squarekilometers.ThemainethnicgroupistheLuhyia.OthersareTeso,SamiaandWakhayo.


Between1992and2002,theareawasseenasalargelyKANUzone.ThedominantpoliticalfiguresincludedMoodyAwori,ChrisOkemoandJuliaOjiambo.Duringthisperiodtheformertwowerelargelyestablishmentfigures.WhenKANUlostin2002,theoppositionwasabletoestablishdominanceintheareawithMoodyAworicontestingundertheNationalRainbowCoalition(NARC).In2007,ODMwasabletocapturemostoftheseats,includingdefeatingAwori,thethenVice-President,throughthecurrentMinisterforSports–PaulOtuoma.

Currently, it iswidelybelieved that themainpolitical rivalrywillbebetweenODMandNewFordKenya.Inthepast,therehavebeentensionsbetweenthelargerLuhyaandtheTesocommunities.

Economic Dimensions

Slightlyover6outofevery10people in theCounty live inpovertyandonlyabout1personoutof10hascompletedsecondaryeducation.Thereispoorhealthcare,sanitationandroadnetwork.Mostoftheeconomicactivitiesaresmallscaleagricultureandfishing.ThereisalsoconflictovertheconstructionofBusiaSugarfactory.Theothermaincropsarecerealsandcoffee.Inaddition,BusiaservesasthemainborderandcrossingpointwithUganda.Thereisthusa lotsmallscaleofcrossbordertradeaswellassmuggling.InthelowerareasoftheCounty,inBudalangithereistheperennialproblemoffloodingwhichhascauseddisplacementofpeopleanddisruptedlivelihoods.ThereisaplanbythegovernmenttoconstructadamontheRiverNzoiainBungomaCountytoavertfloodsinBudalang’i.ThishascausedtensionbetweenpeopleinBusiaandBungomaCountiesasthereare

84 Sharmit Lamba, Op Cit



planstore-locatepeoplefromthefloodzone.85

Legal Dimensions

BusiaCountyhasatotalof5judicialofficers,includingaHighCourtJudge.Ithasanaverageof0.49on themillionsof citizensper court station ratioagainst thenational averageof 0.37.86Given itsproximitytoUgandaandtheeconomicactivities,thisishardlyadequate.


BusiaCountyisatradecentre,juxtaposedbetweenKenyaandUganda.Alotofsocialissuesprevail,justlikeinanyothertownthat‘sit’in-betweenborders.Thereismegacorruptionandillegaltrade,existingsidebysidewithformalandincorrupttradeformbusinesspersonsplyingtheroute;thereisalotofprostitution;thereisthehotelandmotelindustry;andalso,alotofethnicgroupsmeaninga lot of potential for ethnic conflict including those communities fromUganda, other than thosementionedabove.


FloodinginthelowerareasoftheCountynexttoLakeVictoriaremainsamajorchallenge.Communitiesinfloodproneareashaveremainedpoorandtherehasbeennolong-lastingsolutiontotheproblem.Thedykesbuilthavebeenlargelyineffective.ThebuildingofadamontheupperpartofRiverNzoiaisstillmiredincontroversyanditisuncertainwhethertheprojectwillgoaheadgiventheoppositiontoitinBungoma.

Conclusion

TheLuhyaversusTesoconflictislikelytobeexacerbatedduringthenextelectionswhileBungoma-BusiaCountyconflictduetotheRiverNzoiadam.However,thelikelyhoodofviolenceremainslow.

SIAYA COUNTYSiayaCountyhasapopulationof844,304livingon2,530squarekilometers.ThepopulationismainlyLuo.


Siaya County has diverse political dynamics. The new County systemwill bring together politicalplayerswhoserivalrysofarhasbeenconfinedtotheirconstituencies.ODMisthedominantpartyanditisunlikelythatanyotherpartywillposeasignificantchallengetoit.MajorpoliticalplayersincludeJamesOrengo,Anyang’Nyong’oandRailaOdinga.TheCountygovernmentandsenatorpositionswillbehighlycontested.TherehavebeenpocketsofviolencerelatedtotherecentODMelectionsbutnomajororsustainedviolence.

Economic

SiayaCountyeconomyreliesonfishingandsubsistencefarming.Therearefewindustries.OnemajoreconomicinvestmentistheDominionFarmsontheYalariver.Theprojectisbeingtoutedasamajorstep tousing theYalaSwamptocreate foodsecurity.However, theprojecthasbeencriticisedbyenvironmentalistsforinterferingwiththeYalaecosystemanddisplacingthelocalpopulation.Localresidentsclaimtheyhaveseennotangiblebenefits fromtheprojectandthe issuehasbecomea85 Interview with Robert Wanyonyi , Op Cit86 Sharmit Lamba, Op Cit



major flashpoint between locals on the one hand and Dominion, politicians and the provincialadministrationontheother

Security Dimensions

Themajor security issue is related to the activities ofDominion Farms. Also increase in crime Inaddition,thereislikelytobesmallpocketsofelectoralrelatedviolence.

Legal Dimensions

Thereare2courtstationsandatotalof5magistrates.ThereisnoHighCourt.


Generally, theenvironmentalconditionsofSiayaCountyarebasedon theneighbouringCounties,especiallyKisumu;which isdescribedbelow.Nevertheless,Siaya isbasicallyaruralCountywhoseenvironmentisnotdegradedlikeKisumu.

Conclusion

Thereisaslimpossibilityofanysustainedpoliticalviolencepartfrompocketsofcampaignviolence.

KISUMU COUNTYKisumuCountyissituatedinWesternKenya.Itoccupies2.086squarekilometersandhasapopulationof968,909(CRA,2012).ThedominantethnicgroupistheLuobuttherearesignificantpocketsofKisii,Luhya’s,NubiansandAsians.

Political Dimensions:

Kisumuhastraditionallybeenapoliticallyvolatileareaandthisissettocontinue.Theamalgamationof very politically diverse districts into one single County is likely to present challenges. Kisumu,especiallytheCity,ispronetopolitically-motivatedviolence.Thetraditionaltensionshavesometimestakenanativeclanversesimmigrantclan(jo-dak)dimension.ThecurrentdominantpartyisODMandmostpoliticalcompetitionislikelytorevolvearoundthefightforpoliticalpowerwithintheparty,andbyextension,theCountygovernment.

Security Dimensions

Kisumuhasacultureofpoliticalviolence,especiallyinthemajorurbanareas.Thelargenumberofidleandunemployedyouthingangsmakesiteasyforpoliticianstotrytoobtainleveragethroughviolentmeansbyfundinganddeployingthesegangs.Thissituationmayhavebeenamelioratedbythefactthatmostyouthwhohadpreviouslybeeninvolvedinviolencearenowengagedinactivitiesthatpromotepeace.

IntheCounty,therearebordertensionsintheconstituenciesborderingformerRiftValleyProvince,whichareMuhoroniandNyakach.

InMuhoroni,thereisamixtureofpoliticalandlandissuesthathasledtotension.Theareahashadalongstandinghistoryofinter-communalrivalrybetweentheLuoandKalenjincommunities.In2007,therewasasortofatruceasbothcommunitieswereperceivedtohaveacommonpoliticalinterestinODMwinning the elections.However,with the subsequent fall out betweenRailaOdinga andWilliamRuto,therivalryhasresumed.Duringthe2010referendumtherewastensionandlowlevelofdisplacementintheborderregion.InNyakachtherehasbeenapersistentproblemofcattlerustling,



whichhasoftentakenapoliticaldimensionduringelections.Thereisneedtomonitorthis.

Economic Dimensions

KisumucityistheregionalcapitalofNyanzaProvince.Thecityboastsmanybusinessandmanufacturingplant.IthasaninlandharborconnectingittoUgandaandTanzaniaaswellasaninternationalairport.It is thehubofwesternKenya. In the ruralpartsof theCounty, themaineconomicactivitiesarefishingandagriculture(rice,sugarcaneandmaizefarming)aswellassmallscalesubsistencefarming.Largescalecommercialagriculture ismainlyconcentratedintheMuhoroniandAheroarea.Thereisalsoalargehydro-electricpowerplantinNyakach.Thustheeconomyisdiverse.However,therearealargenumberofruralandurbanpoorandinequalitiesbetweenurbanandruralpopulations.Unemploymentparticularlyoftheyouthishigh,especiallyinurbanareas.

Legal Dimensions

Kisumuhas5courtstationsandajudgeto100,000bringingthecitizens’ratioto4.8againstanationalaverageof8.6.


Clanbasedpolitics is a dominant factor in Kisumu. Further,minorities havenot yet been able tofullyparticipateinsocialandpoliticallife.NubiansandSouthAsiansarelargelyinsulatedfromthemainstream.AlthoughoccasionallySouthAsianshavewonpublicoffice,thesetendtobepersonsconnectedtothepoliticalestablishment.


Urbanareas likeKisumuCity suffer frompollutionandotherurbanenvironmental challenges likewastedisposalandinadequatesanitation.HyacinthinLakeVictoriaisstillachallengealthoughsomeinnovativepeoplearenowusingtheweedforfurnishing.

Conclusion

ThepotentialforviolenceinKisumu,bothintheborderareasandthoserelatedtolocalpoliticsishighandrequiresmonitoring.

HOMA BAY COUNTYHomaBayCountyhasapopulationof958,791peopleon2,586squarekilometers.ThedominantcommunitiesaretheLuoandtheAba-Suba.


HomaBay isadiverseCountyandthepoliticsreflectthis.Onthe islandsandareasborderingthelake,theAbasubahavelongbeenfightingforwhattheyviewastheirdistinctpoliticalidentity.ThedistinctionbetweentheLuoandtheAbasubawasfuelledbytheKANUregimeforpoliticalpurposes.Inrealityhowever,theLuoandSubahavedifferenthistories,distincttraditionsalbeittheycanbetracedtooneancestor.Thedividehasnotbeenviolentbuthasprecipitatedpoliticalcompetition.ThusonehalfoftheCountywillmostlikelybedominatedbythisdynamic.Itisimportanttocloselymonitorpoliticalpartynominations.

Security Dimensions

Apartfrompocketsofintra-partypoliticalviolenceinvolvinggangsofhiredyouthandordinarycrime,



therearenomajorsecurityrisksintheCounty.

Economic Dimensions

HomaBayhashighlevelsofpoverty.Themaineconomicactivitiesarefishingandsubsistencefarmingaswellaslimitedmanufacturing.TheCountyhasfewfishprocessingplantsasmanyplantsaresituatedoutsidetheCounty.Inaddition,theroadsnetworkisinpoorcondition,althoughintherecentpasttherehasbeenanimprovementintheconditionofsomemajorroads.ThepoorinfrastructurehasledtounderdevelopmentinmanyruralpartsoftheCountyaswellasHomaBayitself.

Legal Dimensions

HomaBayhasaratioof0.32inrelationtomillionsofcitizenpercourtstationagainstthenationalaverageof0.42.Ithas3stationsand5judicialofficers.


In some lakebeaches thewater hyacinth ismajor challenge, disrupting commercial activities likefishingandinlandwatertransport.Theurbanareaslackproperwastedisposalsystemsandsewerageworks.Asresultwaterbornediseasesarecommon.

Conclusion

Thereisalikelihoodofisolatedviolentconflictsrelatedtopoliticalcompletitionbutthesewillmostlikelypeteroutinthepost-electionperiod.However,anynationalunresthasthepotentialtospreadoutacrosstheregionashappenedinthePEV.

MIGORI COUNTYMigoriCountyhasapopulationof563,033livingon1,969squarekilometers.ThemainethnicgroupistheLuo.ThesecondlargestethnicgrouparetheKuria.OtherlargeminoritiesaretheMaragoliandKisii.

Political Dimension

PoliticsinMigorihashadahistoryofextremeviolenceinalltheconstituencies.Inalmostallelectionsinthelast10yearstherehavebeenlargescaleviolenceanddeaths.Forexample,inRongoalong-standingfeudbetweenDalmasOtienoandOchilloAyakohasbeensimmering,occasionallyleadingto violence. The latest incidenthappenedduring the recentODMelections. InUriri, adeathwasreportedduringthereferendum2010. InNyatike, the lastelectionwascharacterisedbychaos. InKuria,therehasbeenviolencetoo,basedonclanrivalry.

Theworryingdimensionhere istheeasyavailabilityofsmallarmsandthewidespreadpracticeofcattlerustling.MigoriwitnessedsomeoftheworstofthePEV.ManyperceivedPNUsupportersweredisplacedandtheirpropertylooted.Inaddition,manypeoplewereshotatbytheKPFandsomediedasaresult.

Economic Dimensions

Migoriisanagriculturalarea.Theeconomyrevolvesaroundsugarcaneandtobaccofarming.Thereis a sugar factory at Awendo and a leaf curing centre in Rongo.Other crops include cereals andvegetables.ThereisalsoartisanmininginNyatikeandRongoaswellasfishing.ThemaineconomichubisMigoriandAwendotowns.Althoughfarmersearnsignificantincomesfromfarmingthereare



complaintsaboutlowreturnsandhighcostofinputs.ApartfromthemainhighwaythatstraddlestheCountyothersecondaryroadsareinpoorcondition.TheCountyisthegatewaytoTanzania.

Security Dimensions

Migorihasahistoryofpoliticallymotivatedandcrossborderconflicts.Thisislikelytoescalateinthecomingperiod.Inaddition,largeminoritiesliketheKuriafeelculturallyandpoliticallyalienatedfromtheLuoandthis isaperennialsourceofconflicts.TogetherwiththeongoingpoliticalfeudsintheCounty,itisimportanttokeenlymonitortheCounty.

Legal Dimensions

TheCountyhasafactorof0.34inrelationtomillionsofcitizenpercourtstationand3stations.ItdoesnothaveahighcourtandlitigantshavetogotoKisii.


Environmental degradation remains a challenge due to the nature of commercial agriculturespecificallytheuseofpesticidesandfirewoodinthesugarandtobaccoindustries.

Conclusion

MigoriCountyhasthepotentialforextremeandwidespreadviolenceduetopoliticalfeudsandinter-clanethnictensionandisahighpriorityareaformonitoring.

KISII COUNTYKisiiCountyhasapopulationof1,511.422livingon2,542squarekilometers.ThedominantethnicgrouparetheKisiialthoughtherearepocketsoftheLuo,LuhyaandotherethnicgroupsintheCounty,asitisanurbanCounty.


Politics inKisii isverycomplexandsignificantlydifferentfromotherCountiesintheregioninthatinanygivenelectionssince1997,therehasneverbeenanypartythathasdominatedtheCounty.Politics is largely fuelled by perceived clan interests which often supersedes political affiliation.SimeonNyachaehasbeenthemostdominantpoliticalfigureontheCountybuthassinceretired.

KANU,ODMaswellasotherminorpartieshavesignificantsupport.Itisunclearifanyofthebiggerpartieswillbeable toestablishcompletedominance in the regionandclanaswellas familyandpoliticalloyaltieswillcombinetoproducecomplexpoliticaloutcomes.

Security Dimensions

KisiiCountyhashadahistoryofborderconflictswithneighbouringCounties.TherehasbeenconflictintwofrontsontheKisii–MigoriandKisii-HomaBayborderandontheKisii-TransMaraborder.ThelattertwohavebeenlargelyresolvedbuttheonewithTrans–Maraisstillongoing.Therehavealsobeenclanrivalriesaswellasasignificantpresenceofvigilantegangswhopurporttoserveacommunitypolicingroleintheyearsbeforeelectionsbuthavebeenknowntobedeployedforpoliticalmotivesduringcampaigns.ElectioneeringinKisiiCountyispronetoviolenceandintimidation,especiallyfromillegalmilitias/gangssuchasNchinkororo,SunguSunguandAmachumaamongothers.



Economic Dimensions

Kisii is a richagricultural area.Themainstayof theeconomy is small scale tea farmingand thereare numerous coffee factories. Also horticultural crops are grown widely. The County suppliesneighbouringCountieswithvegetablesandfruits.However,duetohighpopulationdensity,farmsizesaregrowingsmallerandsmaller.Competitionforlandoftenleadstoviolenceandisthoughttobelinkedtothepracticeofkillingofallegedwitches.KisiitownisathrivingalbeitcrowdedcommercialhubfortheSouthernNyanzaregionhasishosttoanumberofbusinessesandmanufacturingplants.

Legal Dimensions

TheCountyhasatotalof11judicialofficersin3stations.Itsrationof100,000citizenstoaHighCourtjudgeis5.8againstanationalaverageof8.6whileitsrationofnumberof1millioncitizenspercourtstationis0.38againstanationalaverageof0.37.


Thehighpopulationdensity is amajor contributing factor to soils erosionanddeforestation.Thewastedisposalandseweragesystemsareoverstretchedinurbanareas.

Conclusion

The riskofwidespreadviolence isminimal.However, there is apossibilityofpocketsofelectoralrelatedviolenceandcrossborderincidents

NYAMIRA COUNTY NyamiraCountyhasapopulationof598,252on899 squarekilometres. Thepopulation ismainlyAbagusii.NyamiraCountyislocatedinNyanzaandconstitutes3constituencies(KitutuMasaba,WestMugirangoandNorthMugirango-Borabu).


FordecadesthepoliticsinwhatisnowNyamirahadbeendominatedbyGeorgeAnyonawhohassincedied.The2007electionproducedamixedoutcome.The3constituencieswerewonbyKANU,ODMandthelittleknownNationalLabourParty.Inthoseelectionsslightlyover80candidatespresentedthemselvesforthe3positions.Theresultisthatthewinningcandidatealwayswonbyaverysmallnumberofvotes.Thisshowsaveryfragmentedelectorate.

Economic Dimensions

LikeKisiiCountyNyamiraisanagriculturalbastion.Themainstayoftheeconomyissmall-scaleteafarmingaswellashorticulturalfarming.ThereisasettlementschemeinthecountyontheborderwithBometCounty.

Security Dimensions

ThemajorsecurityissueisrelatedtoalandandborderdisputeandcattlerustlingalongtheborderwithBomet.DuringthePEV,theborderareaexperiencedinter-ethnicviolencepittingtheKisiiandtheKalenjin.Therewasalsosometensionandisolatedviolenceintherunuptothe2010referendum.Thistensionhascontinuedtosimmerandsporadicviolence-mainlyrelatedtocattlerustling-hascontinued.Althoughitisarural-basedCounty,pressurefromsurroundingCounties(suchasKisii)hasledtoalsoincreasedlevelsofcrimeguisedasSunguSunguoffering‘communitypolicing’andwith



tacitsupportoflocalpoliceandadministrationofficers.

Legal Dimensions

Thereare1courtstationsandatotalof2judicialofficers.ThereisnoHighCourt.


SimilartoKisiiCounty,Nyamiraalsosuffersfromhighpopulationdensityleadingtodeforestation,soilerosion,andalsothesub-divisionoflandintoverysmallparcelshastakentollonproductivityofland.

Conclusion

Nyamirahasexperiencedextremeelectoralviolenceinthepast.ThereispotentialforviolenceintherunuptothenextelectionsandthisrequireshighmonitoringbyCRECO.

NAIROBI CITY COUNTYNairobiCountyplayshosttothepoliticalandeconomiccapitalofKenya.ItbordersKajiado,Machakosand Kiambu Counties. It measures 695 square kilometers with a population of 3,138,369. It iscomprises the 8 constituencies i.e. Dagoretti, Kibera, Westlands, Kasarani, Makadara, Embakasi,KamukunjiandStarehe.Itisacosmopolitancitywithlargeinformalsettlements(slums)ineachoftheaboveconstituencies.


Overtheyears,Nairobihadbeenahotbedforoppositionpolitics.Thiscanbeattributedtohigherlevelsofliteracyandenlightenment.DuringtheKANUregime,therulingpartyproppedupcandidatesagainstpopularoppositioncandidatesandthereforetheensuingcompetitioneventuallyturnedintoviolentconfrontationsinalmostallconstituencies.ThusacultureofpoliticalviolenceseemstohavetakenrootinNairobiCityCounty.

NairobiwasamongtheareasthatwerebadlyaffectedbythePEV.AccordingtotheCIPEVReport,125peoplediedand348wereinjuredduringthePEV.87TheviolenceinNairobiwassensationallyreportedbylocalandforeignmediaandthisforcedthethenMinisterforInteriorSecurity(LateJohnMichuki)to order a banon live broadcasts of the violence. The gory images from the violencehavebeenimprintedonthemindsofmanyandthereforetheviolenceisapermanentscarontheconscienceofthosewhoresideinNairobi.

Theannouncementofpresidential results triggeredviolence inODMstrongholds.However, therewere tensions that had started mounting before elections within informal settlements followingrumoursandallegationsthatspreadindicatingthattheLuoandLuhyatenantsinhousesownedbyKikuyulandlordshadplannedtotakeoverthesaidpremisesshouldRailaOdingawin.88InthePEVthatensued,sometenantsrefusedtopayrentandthispromptedthelandlordstoenlistservicesofarmedthugstoeitherevictorforcetheunwillingtenantstopay-up.LongafterPEV,itisclaimedthatsomelandlordshaveunsuccessfullytriedtoreclaimtheirhouses in informalsettlementssuchasKibera.Thisgrievanceislikelytocausetensionsasthenextelectionsapproach.

Ifthenextpresidentialelectionswillbeahighstakescontest,NairobiislikelytoreflectthisasitissaidtobethebarometerofKenya’spolitics.ThePEVwaspartlyattributedtothenatureofthehighstakesthatattendedtothesaidelection.RailaOdinga,whorepresentsKiberaconstituency,waschallenging

87 Republic of Kenya, 2008 Supra at pg 317 and 33488 Ibid pg 305



PresidentKibaki,whosehasalargefollowinginNairobi.

Duetothehighnatureofthestakesatthatelection,therehavebeenfearsofrigging.ThisraisedtheprospectofviolenceintheCounty.89

SharppoliticalcompetitionisalsoexpectedinareaswhereODMandPNUhavestrongcandidates.Intensecampaigns,ifnotproperlyregulatedmayheightentensionsleadingtooutbreaksofviolenceespeciallyintheinformalsettlements.

Security Dimensions

TheCIPEVreportalludedtotherecruitmentanddeploymentofarmedcriminalgangs(particularlyMungiki and theKenyanTaliban)byprotagonistsduringPEV.90 Thegangshad thrived inNairobi’sinformalsettlements,largelyduetothefailurebytheStateandlocalauthoritiestoprovideamenitiestothelocalpopulations.Thesegangsmovedintothevoidandbecamethealternativeauthorityintheseareas.Effortstotacklethegangsbysecurityforceswereneverconcertedadsustained.AfterthePEV,aviolentcrackdownonarmedgangsgatherednewimpetusleadingtounprecedentedviolenceandspatesofextrajudicialkillingsonbothsides.Eventually,thesegangs,particularlyMungikiwereoverwhelmedandpushedunderground.Thus,eventhoughthegangshaveneverbeendecimated,thereisstillariskofthesame

TherehasbeenahighproliferationofsmallinarmsinNairobi.Thishasbeenattributedtotheinfluxofrefugees(especiallyfromSomalia)andtheincreasedcrimerate.Thedemandandsupplyfortheseweaponshas therefore increased tremendously. This shoulda cause forworry, should therebearepeatoftheviolencewitnessedintheaftermathofthepreviouselections.

The ongoing war against the Al Shabaab in Somalia has heightened terror threat in Nairobi. InDecember 2011, Nairobi experienced two terrorist-related attacks which led to 4 deaths. As theelectioneeringperiodpeaks,theterrorthreatsare likelytoescalate.Campaignmeetingsarelikelytobe targets for terrorists. If thesecurityagencieswillnotbeable topreventattacksandassureresidentsoftheirsecurity,freecampaignswillnotbepossible.

Economic Dimensions

EventhoughpovertyratesinNairobiarerelativelylowat22.5%,thereiswidespreadextremepovertyintheinformalsettlementswhereanestimatedtwo-thirdsofthecitypopulationresidesinanareathat accounts for only one-fifth of the total surface area. This alludes to deep inequality whichpotentiallycouldfansocialtensions.

NairobiCityCountystandstoreceivehighamountsoftransfersfromtheNationalgovernmentduetopopulationsize.Already,theCountyreceivedatotalofKshs1.4billionasrevenueandresourcetransfers in theFY2008/9 (CRA2012). These resourcesare likely tobehandledby theGovernorandthereforepoliticalcompetitionoverCountylevelpositionsarelikelytobeheatedandthiscouldgenerateconflicts.

Legal Dimensions

Nairobiistheseatofthejudiciaryandthereforeallcourts,includingtheSupremeCourt,aretobefoundhere.However,thecourtsystemisseverelyconstrainedbythesheerpopulationitservesandthefactthatoutlyingCounties(Kiambu,Murang’aandpartsofKajiado)relyontheNairobicourtsforservicedelivery.91Withongoingjudicialreforms,itisexpectedthatpressurewilleaseandhence89 Ibid 90 Ibid 30691 Sharmit Lamba, Op Cit, Nairobi is served by 72 judicial officers whereas every 1 judge in Nairobi serves 156,918 persons



accesstojusticeoverelectoralrelateddisputeswillenhance.However,shouldthesereformsstall,theriskoftheproblemescalatingconflictswillremainactive.

Social Dimensions

Inequalities,whichhavebeenalluded toabove,arecausesof social tensions inNairobibasedonclass differences.Within informal settlements, ethnic differences among communities also resultinsocialtensions. InKiberafor instance,thereisethniczoningoftheinformalsettlements,wherecertainneighbourhoodsareexclusivelyheldbyparticularcommunities.Suchzoningisillegalandmayexacerbateethnictensions.

Youthunemploymentisamajor issueinNairobi,particularly intheinformalsettlements.Absenceoflivelihoodsmeansthattheyoutharedesperateandthereforearevulnerabletoconscriptionintogangsthatcouldbeusedforpoliticalviolence.


Landlessnessdueto lackofsecurityof tenure in informalsettlementsand landgrabbinghave ledtoland-relatedconflictsinNairobi.RecentviolentevictionsinMukuruslumsinNairobi’sMakadaraconstituencypromptedthePrimeMinstertoannounceatemporaryfreezeinsuchevictionsuntilthegovernmentcameupwithguidelinesonthesame. Informalsettlementsarerichvotecatchmentsandthereforeresolvingthelandproblemisapoliticalminefield.Itshouldthereforebeexpectedthatpoliticianswilluse this issueaselectoral campaignpurposeswith the resultof inflamingconflictsrelatedtoland.

Conclusion

NairobiCountyisaveryhighconflictriskareaowingtoitspoliticalsignificanceinthecountry,theentrenchedcultureofpoliticalviolence,scarsofthePEVandprevalenceofsocialtensionsassociatedwithinequality,youthunemploymentandlandlessness.



CHAPTER FOUR

CONCLUSIONSThisbaselinereportexploresthelegalcontextofKenya’ssecurityandpeace-buildingarchitectureandconcludesthatalotstillneedstobedoneintermsofreformingthenationalpoliceandsubjectingitfirmlytocivilianoversight.Thisperhapswillmaketheforcemoreaccountableandresponsivetoconflictsandtheirtriggers.Inthesamevein,thereportalsocallsforincreasebudgetarysupporttopoliceauthoritiesinordertoincreasetheirpresencesespeciallyinmarginalareasthatareconflict-prone.

This County-based conflictmapping andprofilingbaseline reports reveals thatmore than80%oftheCountieshavemoderatetohighriskofconflictandhencemeritclosermonitoring.TheanalysisalsorevealsthatallpastoralistCountieshavehigherriskofconflictaswellasareasthatwererockedby2007-8post-electionviolence.Newthreatsposedby Islamicradicalizationof thenorthernandnorth-easternpartsofKenyaandtheongoingwaragainstAlShabaabinSomaliahavebroughtanewdimensiontotheconflictfactorsinthenorthandhenceclosermonitoringisnecessary.

The ongoing process of delineating constituency boundaries is emerging as an important conflicttrigger/accelerator,especially inareaswherepoliticalpower isequatedto institutionalizationofacommunity’sholdonresourcesoveritsrivalswithinthesamepoliticalterritory.

The possibility of increased resource transfers as a result of institutionalization of the devolvedgovernment structures also provides an interesting but intense arena of conflict over resourcetransfersfromthenationalgovernmentthatareexpectedtoincreasetremendously.Thiswillperhapsbeexacerbatedbyamalgamationofethnicdistricts intoCountiesandthereduction innumberofelectoralunitsatthesub-Countylevels,forcingbothdominantandminoritycommunitiestoslugitoutoverthefewelectoralunitsavailable.

Internalandexternalpoliticalparties’feudswillalsoincreasepoliticaltensionsinsomeareas,wherethereisminimalinter-partycompetitionsuchastheso-called‘strongholds’ofsomepoliticalparties:formerProvincesofNyanzaandRiftValleyprovideperfectexamples.Therecentviolenceprecipitatedbypoliticalpartynominations(inODM)inNyanzapointtothisglaringpossibility.

Theareas thatwereworst-affectedbypostelectionviolencemeritcloserscrutinyduringthepre-electionperiod, largelyduetotheunsettledorunresolveddeep-seatedgrievances.The impactoftheindictmentof4prominentKenyansshouldalsoprovidemorejustificationformonitoringofthesituation,especiallywithrespecttopossibletreatmentofcommunitiesperceivedasvictimsofthe2007-8PEV.

Conflictsbringintoforeasimilararrayofactors;politicalleadership,elders,youth(hiredas‘warriors’)and interestingly, women. Understanding the role of each social group is important in designingstrategiesofaddressingeachconflict.

Thereexistawealthoflocalpeacebuildingandconflictresolutionresourcesespeciallyinnorthernandpastoralistcommunities,wheretraditionaljusticemechanismsremainstrong.Thesemechanismshavemorphedintopeaceanddevelopmentstructuresthatincorporatecivilsocietyandgovernmentdepartments, giving rise towhatMenkhaus refers to as the “mediated state” inNorthernKenya.Thesestructuresarevitalinmonitoringandresolvingconflictsandthereforeshouldbeconsistently



engagedbyelectionmonitoringgroups

Due to historical circumstances and persistence of the culture of impunity, a culture of politicalviolencehaspermeatedinsomepartsofthecountry.ThiscultureisveryentrenchedinareaswhichtheformerrulingpartyKANUroutinelyimposedcandidatesagainstpopularoppositioncandidatesespeciallyinpartsofformerCentral,RiftValley,NyanzaandNairobiProvinces.Thiscultureexplainstheprevalenceofelectoralviolenceineveryelectionheldwithintheaffectedareas,irrespectiveofcandidates,partiesortypeofelectionsinvolved.Toeradicatethisculture,long-termandsustainedsolutionsmustbesought.



RECOMMENDATIONS

Inviewoftheabovefindingsandconclusions,thefollowingrecommendationsarenecessary:

(A) To State Institutions:

(i) It is important that the State, through the IEBC, National Cohesion and IntegrationCommission (NCIC), Judiciary, the KPF, the National Intelligence Service (NIS) and otherrelevant institutions,undertake their respectivemandatesandensure that therearepro-activeapproaches(includingearlywarningsystems)toensurethatconflictintheseCountiesismanaged and is not allowed to escalate as happened in the PEV. This report is but abaselineonwhichtobuildfutureinterventions,asweapproachtheupcomingelections.

(ii) With regard to NCIC, they should develop a newmethodological framework of workingso that they do not seem to respond only to hate speech. There needs to be concertedeffortstoensurethatanti-discriminationmeasuresonanyofthegroundsprovidedforintheConstitutionareenforced.Further,freshappointmentstothisCommissionshouldbemadeprior to theelectionstoavoidanyrisksassociatedwiththe impending lapseof tenureofcurrentCommissioners.ThiswillstrengthentheCommissionerstomakethenecessarybolddecisionsthatcoulddeterwould-bethehatemongers,andotherindividualsorinstitutionsthatmayviolatetheConstitutiononanyotherground,ascontemplatedinArticle33(2and3)oftheConstitution.92

(iii) Security Sector Reforms and in particular, police reforms should be acceleratedwith thenecessaryappointmentsmadeatleast6monthsbeforetheelections.ThiswillgivethenewpoliceofficialstimetoinitiatefurtherreformsandbuildpublicconfidenceintheNPS.

(iv) IEBCshouldensureitspreparednessforelectionrelatedconflictwellaheadoftheelections.The IEBC should also activate conflictmanagement structures such as the Political PartyLiaisonCommitteetoaddressanyinter-partycomplaintsanddisputes.

(v) For the long term, all State organs, including the Parliament, particularly the BudgetCommitteeandtheCRA,ensurethatNationalandCountybudgetstakescognizanceofpastandpresentmarginalizationsothatsomecommunitiesdonotfeelmarginalized;inthespiritofthenewConstitution.

(vi) Devolutionisnecessarytoaddressthestructuralcausesofviolence.Thereisthereforeneedfortheallocationofdevolvedfundstobeseenasfairtoavoidexacerbatingresourceconflicts.Devolutionmust work without unnecessary interference from the National government.In this regard, therestructuringof theProvincialAdministrationmustbedonewithin theconfines of the Constitution, especially in the participation of the people. The TransitiontoDevolutionAuthoritymustbesteadfasttoensurethatdevolutionofpowerworksfully,withinthenext4years,sothatallcommunitiesfeeltheyarepartandparcelofKenya.AllMinistries,DepartmentsandAgencies(MDAs)oftheStatethatinfringeondevolutionmustbeheldaccountablethroughcourtsoflaw.

(vii) Further,withoutaccesstotheJudiciary,justicemayremainapipedream.ThereisneedtoensurethattheChiefJusticesurveystheneedsoftheCountiestoensurethattheruleoflaw

92 The Article provides: “the right to freedom of expression does not extend to: (a) propaganda for war; (b) incitement to vio-lence; (c) hate speech; or (d) advocacy of hatred that: constitutes ethnic incitement, vilification of others or incitement to cause harm; or is based on any ground of discrimination mentioned or contemplated in Article 27 (4).” Further, in sub-Article (3), it provides that: “In the exercise of the right to freedom of expression, every person shall respect the rights and reputation of others.



ismaintainedatalltimes,andallresidentscanaccessthecourtsincasetotheirfundamentalfreedomsareinfringed,withouthavingtotraveltoNairobi.

(viii) OnJudiciary,reformsthatentailvettingofjudges,appointmentofmorejudicialofficersandcreationofmorejudicial(especiallyHighCourt)stationsinthenewcountiesmustbecarriedoutwellbeforethenextelections.Thiswillgiveaggrievedvotersandcandidatesaccesstothejudicialsystemasandwhentheelectoraldisputesariseduringtheprocess.

(ix) Finally, with regard to political parties, a substantive holder of the Office of Registrar ofPoliticalPartiesshouldbeappointedurgentlytobringasenseofstabilityandinfuseasenseofpublicconfidenceintheoffice.Further,thePoliticalPartiesTribunalshouldalsoanticipatetheavalancheofdisputesthatmayarisefromtheelectioneeringprocessandaccordinglyputinplacemechanismsofensuringexpeditiousresolutionofsuchdisputes.

(B) To Civil Society Organizations:

(i) TheElectionObservationGroup(ELOG)thepremiercivilsocietyobservatoryprogrammeinKenya(ofwhichCRECOispart)shouldput inplacethenecessary infrastructuretocloselymonitorthe24Countiesidentifiedaselection-relatedconflicthotspots.The19countiesthatpresentmoderateconflictriskhowevermeritmonitoringthoughatafarlowerscale.

(ii) CSOsshouldoperationalizeorstrengthenanationalpeaceplatformsimilartotheonethatexistedpriortothe2010referendumunderthebannerofUwiano(cohesion).ThisplatformoughttopromotesynergiesbetweenCSOsandGovernmentagenciestoundertakeadvocacyonnationalissuesthathaveimplicationsonconflictfactorsatthelocallevel.

(iii) TheCSOsshouldparticipateeffectivelyintheexistingDistrictPeaceCommittees(DPC)andadvocateforthetransitioningofthesestructuresintoCountypeacecommitteeswithaclearandstrengthenedstatutorymandateofcoordinatingpeacematters.

(iv) TheCSOsmustactinconcertandcommoncausetoensurethatallpoliticalanddemocraticrights and governanceprocessesduring theupcomingelections are respected, protectedandpromoted.Itiscardinalthatintheseelections,CSOsworkinunison,especiallytoensurethatallStateinstitutions(particularlythosenamedabove)areheldtoaccountiftheyviolatethelaw.

(v) TheCSOsshouldensurethatintheirrespectivecompetencies,betheywomen,children,theyouth,oldpersonsormarginalizedgroupsandcommunities,thatallrightsforthesegroupsareupheld,especiallyensuringthatthereisrepresentationandparticipationofthesegroupsintheupcomingelections.

(vi) TheCSOsshouldalsoworkwith,notjustcriticizeStateinstitutions,inparticulartheyshouldworktogethertoensurethatadequatebudgetarysupporttokeyinstitutionssuchasIEBCismadeavailableontime.WithoutfinancialsupporttotheKPF,Judiciary,andotherinstitutionswithinthecriminaljusticesystemwillnotbeabletodelivertheirmandate.

(vii) CSOs,mustcontinuallymonitortheapplicationofinternationalregionalhumanrightsandgovernancemechanismsKenyaarerespectedandupheldsuchastheRomeStatuteandtheAfricanUnionCharter.

(C) To the International Community:

(i) Theinternationalcommunity,beittherespectiveStatesinEurope,UnitedStatesofAmerica,



ortheUnitedNationSystems(includingtheSpecialProcedures),shouldcontinuallysupportCSOs efforts, adequately and timely - bothwith technical and financial resources.Whilethis report fullyacknowledgesexistingefforts,muchmoreadvocacyneeds tobedone toimplementtherecommendationssetoutinthisChapter.

(ii) Secondly,theinternationalgrantmakersshouldsupportIEBCandCSOsconsortiawithlike-mindedwork,whohavenowcometogetherunderthebannerofTheElectionObservationGroup (andalsoother institutions thathavemonitoredelections singularly), rather than‘establish’ networks that seemingly do notwork. The example of KenyaDomestic Forum(KEDOF)in2007,whichtotallybackfired,shouldserveasanexampleofhownottodothings.

(D) To Communities / Kenyan People:

(i) The communities in Kenya should andmust acknowledge that Kenyadoes not belong toanyparticularethnicgrouporacombinationofgroups.AfterhavingbequeathedourselvesandfuturegenerationsanewConstitution,itisveryimportantthatallcommunitiesrespecthumanrightsforallpersons;upholdthevaluesofthatConstitution;promoteitsprinciplesofgovernance;anddefenditfrommutilationbythepoliticalclassoranyotherpersons/entities.

(ii) Second,thecommunitiesmustresistandrejectallbackward,corrupt,radar-lessandmyopicpoliticians. The Chapter on Leadership and Integrity must mean something for all theelectorate. It cannotbe ‘business asusual’.All the rottenpoliticians,whomcommunitiesknowverywell,mustberejectedattheupcomingelections;iftheKenyancommunitiesaretoharvestthepromiseofthenewConstitution.Therecannotbeanyothershort-cuttothePromisedLand.

(iii) Whileconflict ispartandparcelofcommunal living,Kenyansmust learntosolvepoliticaland social differences amicably.Whereas this report has focusedon the responsibility ofthe politicalclass, thepublic isalso responsible forpreventingviolentconflicts.AsmanyKenyanshaveexpressedsupportfortheICC, it isclearthatthevariouscommunitieshaveagreedtobanishimpunity.Thecommunitiesmustalsostartbanishingimpunityatthelocallevel, especially theCounty level.All communitiesbelong to all Counties: nooneCountywas established exclusively for any particular community. Therefore, Kenyansmust learnto accommodateminoritieswithinCountieswhere theyare themajority in linewith theConstitutionofKenya.



REFERENCES1. Commission of Revenue Allocation, Kenya County Fact Sheets, 2011, Nairobi: Government

Printers

2. IbrahimDand Jenner J.Wajir CommunityBasedConflictManagement, 1996.http://pason.tulane.edu/conflict/cs%20st/JANFIN2.html.

3. ConstitutionofKenya2010,Nairobi,GovermentPrinters

4. InternaitonalCrisisGroup,KenyanSomaliRadicalization,inPolicyBriefing,AfricaBriefingNo85,25thJanuary2012

5. Juma Kathina, Unveiling women as pillars of conflict building in fractured pastoralistcommunitiesinKenya,inUnitedNationsDevelopmentProgrammeinterimreportforBureauforDevelopmentProgrammes,Visithttp://magnet.undp.org/

6. Kenya National Assembly, Official Records (Hansard) November 1996, Government Printer,1996

7. MenkhausKen,Kenya-SomaliBorderConflictAnalysis,2005,USAIDNairobi

8. TheRiseoftheMediatedStateinNorthernKenya:TheWajirStoryanditsimplicationsforState-building,2008inAfrikaFocus,Vol21Nr2,2008

9. MghangaMwandawiro,Usipozibaufa,utajengaukuta:Land,electionsandconflictsinKenya’sCoastProvince,2010HeinrichBollStiftung:Nairobi

10. MinistryofStatefortheDevelopmentofNorthernKenyaandAridLand,AridLandsResourceManagementProjectIIMeruNorthDistrict-AnnualReport2007/8

11. Pkalya R & Halakhe H (eds, Combating the problems of small arms in Northern Kenya:Testimoniesandcasestudiesofpastoralcommunities,2011,GovernmentofKenya:Nairobi

12. Republic of Kenya, Report on Commission on Inquiry into Post Election Violence, 2009GovernmentPrinters:Nairobi

13. TheNationalSteeringCouncilonPeacebuildingandConflictManagement,StructuralfactorsdrivingconflictinKenya:Amulti-dimensionalanalysis,2011unpublished

14. UNDPKenya,ConflictsDynamicsinIsiolo,SamburuEastandMarsabitSouthDistricts,inAmaniPapers,Vol1No3ofJune2010

15. UNDPKenya,DynamicsandTrendsinConflictintheGreaterManderainAmaniPapersVol1May2010

Websites

1. http://www.irinnews.org

2. www.capitalfm.co.ke

3. www.iss.co.za

4. www.kenyadialogue.org

5. www.wikipedia.com



Newspapers

6. TheDailyNation

7. TheStandard

8. TheStar

ANNEXURE: TABLE ON RATING COUNTIES

(i) Counties with Moderate to High conflict risks

Marsabit Garissa Bungoma NandiIsiolo TanaRiver Kisumu TurkanaKitui Mombasa Homabay WestPokot

Makueni Kwale Nyamira LaikipiaMandera Kilifi Migori NakuruWajir TaitaTaveta Bomet Kericho

Narok TransNzoia Kiambu Kirinyaga

Nyeri Nairobi

(ii) Counties with Moderate to Low conflict risk factors

TharakaNithi Embu Machakos Lamu

Busia Kakamega Kisii Baringo

ElgeyoMarakwet Samburu Kajiado Muranga

Nyandarua Meru Vihiga Siaya



CONSOLATA MISSIONARIES JUSTICE AND PEACE COMMISSION

VISIT TO THE CONFLICT AREAS OF ISIOLO. (March 13-15, 2012)

Fr. Makau Nicholas

Forthepast5monthsIsiolocountyhasexperiencednastyepisodes.Despitebeinganaturaldisastercounty,ithasnowturnedtoahumandesigneddisaster.Tomany,theproblemisinventedsoastoanswertosomepersonalorparticulargroup’sinterest.TherecentconflictbetweentheBoranawhoaresearchingpasturefortheiranimalsandtheTurkanahasleftmanywondering.Theclashhasleftabout30peopledeadandmanydisplaced.Ithasreturnedthedevelopmentstridetothescratchaspropertywasreducedtoashesandpotentialincomegeneratingpeoplemaimedandincapacitated.Dishearteningisthefactthatthedisputehasnotbeengivenanysensibleattention.Recently,awardcouncilorwasarrestedaccusedofincitement.Thereisacalculatedmovetoignoretheplightofthevictims.Reasonsaregiventhatthelandindisputeistrustlandandnoonecanclaimownership.TheconstitutionisquotedtodefendthepositionofBorana’sentrytotheplacesayingthateveryonehasarightto liveanywhere inKenya.Buttheydeliberatelyavoidquotingtheclausethatdefendsthefreedomandrightagainst invasion, forcefulevictionandtheright toownership. Indefending therightoftheBoranatograzetheircamelsanywhere,itistoaccusetheTurkanasforfarmingorerectingtheirhouseswhichbarsthepresenceoftheanimals.Byallowingthepresenceofthethousandsofcamelsinsuchasmallvillageatshambani,itdis-allowsthepresenceofotherliving.OneisforcedtorepeatthequestiontheTurkanacommunityisasking;WhatisthemotiveoftheBoranaskeepingsomanyanimalsifthereisscarcityofgrazingland?WhydidtheBoranamovetoCampGarbaatthismomentoftheyear?Iftheyareonlyafterfoodfortheiranimals,whykillpeopleandburnhouses?Thechurchandtheschooldestruction,lingersveryseriousquestions;isitatribalclashorareligiousconflict, is itafightover resourcesorfightoverchiefdomdominance, is itpowerwrangleor it iseconomicstrength,istotellwhoisthehostcommunityorthenewcomer?IsitawaytopreparewhowillowntheresourcecitythatIsioloisbeingdesignedtobe?Whoisresponsibleandwhocanhelpavertit?ThelocalleadersandparticularlytheareaMPhasbeenabsentfromthearea.Verylittlehasbeendonetocall foraresolution.Nowisthetimetoseekanequitable justice.Furtherdelaywillescalatetheconflict.Ithasbeenexplained,“itisthecultureoftheBoranapeopletokeepanimals”.Butisittheirculturealsotobehostileandviolent?Theirneighborsalsohavetheirculture.Nowisthetimetodevelopanewcultureofcoexistence.LettheBoranaeldersbesummonedbythestatelawandbeforcedtoacknowledgethattheircultureisnotinisolationandthatitisnotjusttopromotetheirownhavenwithoutcareoftheothers’.Letcultureandtraditionnotbeusedtojustifyorexplainaconflictthathasclaimedlivesanddestroyedproperties.Validatingsuchcultureandtraditionisonlyalimpingpretextthatdoesnotpassthetestofcredibility.

YesterdaywevisitedtheCatholicMissionatCampGarbawhichhostsabove600peopleintheopengroundinverycompromisingcircumstances.IvisitedKiwanja,Eremetandshambanivillageswheretheyhadescapedfrom.ThevillagesofBulagadudandLMDwerealsoemptyaspeoplehadranawayfortheirsafety.Iwassaddenedbytheuglyincidentwhichwefound.Thecatholicmissionaries,Fr.TalloneandFr.Wambuahaveopeneddoorstothechildrenandmothersasotherwomenandmenarespreadacrossthecompound.Fr.Wambuaguidedusthroughthecompound;crowded,withdusty,tornmattress,blankets,wornoutsheetsandallsortsofhouseholdgoodsarescatteredallover.Thedemarcationofoccupancyspaceisthefarthemattresscanreach.Giventhatthecementedcorridorsoftheclergyhouse,thesisters’conventandthoseoftheschoolarenotenough,othersfindspacealongthefenceandunderthetrees.Sincetheschoolisstillon,theyhavetovacatetheplacebefore7.00ambeforepupilscomeandreturnat5.00pmwhentheschooldayisover.ThisisthemostpainfulmomentthatIhavewitnessed.Istoodnearthepolicepostand200mawayIcouldseesmallchildren,womenwithbabiesontheirback,andmencarryingtheiritemspackedinpolythenebagsorsackscomingtothemissionforthenight.Atarrivalitisstillpainfultoseethemrushingtogetwateror



collectinggrassforfirewoodtocooksomethingwhichyoucanguessit’sjustgrains.Themosquitoesstingleavingpimples.Childrenarecryingastheyscratchthemselvesalloverduetoirritation.Onecanhear thealternatingcryofbabiesacross thecompound.Aswevisitgroupsamoverwhelmedby fear as I see small bonfires scattered inthe entire mission compound. “hawa woteniwaturu(Turkana’s).tulichomewamahomezetu na waboraana” a teenager told us.As I look at the thickets, I could imagine ofthe invasion of snakes, scorpions or othercrawling creatures. Am taken aback and Ido not want to announce my thoughts. Isee the same place has become a toilet. It i sanightmare towalkasonewill be steppingontheexcrementorsurpriseanadultatthecallofnature.Cookingisdoneontheopen.Forthosewhohavesick,agedorsmallbabies intheirfamily,theysufferadoubletragedy.Asthecookingitemsarenotenoughorconducive,thereisalsothedangerofanaccident.Amworriedifwindchangesmindandthegrassaroundcatchfire,someofthechildrenwhoarelyingtheremaybeconsumednevertobediscoveredorrecovered.InthecornerofmyeyesIcanseechildrenandmothersfollowingbehindus,incasewehadsomethingforthem.Iwentforasleeplessnightastheimageswent roundmymind. There is an imminent threat. Escaping to spare their life, theymayjeopardizeit.

There are fleets of people going out of the churchcompound.Theywanttoprovideroomtotheschoolthatisabouttostart.Majorityareeligibletoschool,buttheirsisfaraway.“ourschoolisnothere,itwasthere (pointing the direction), we ran away whencamels came in and the ownerswere shooting us”a STD 3 girl at shambani primary school told me,as I walked her and her family out to nowhere inparticular.Itwasheartbreakingtoseefamiliesleaveonlytogooutofthefence,gatheringroupsastheyhad nothing to do. Their village is across but theycannot dare return. They spend whole day in thesameroutinewaitingforanyhope.Theyareontheir

own,noonecomestospeaktothemexceptthecatholicmissionaries.Thepolicewhoareexpectedtocometotellthemtogobackaresilent.There isanothergroupwhohavegonetocampattheIsiolo police station as a way to draw attention totheir cause.But theyarenotwanted there. “This ismyhomeandIcan’tallowstrangerstostayin.Idon’tknowwho iswho” theOCPD toldme in askinghimwhyhewanted thepeople tovacate theonlyplacethat looked securer. The police station is hostinganother450people. It isapainandnuisancetothepoliceofficers, it is amatterof their reputationandrank “but supposing something happenswhen theyarehere,whowillberesponsible”oneofthepoliceofficer tells complains. But an exchange ensures asone of the elders answers back very bitterly “it isbetterwediehereandsomeonecanreportandbeheldresponsiblethanbeingburnedinthevillage



byyourfriends”.IdiscoverthatthepolicehavearrangedfortwoLorriestotakethepeoplebacktothevillageswheretheyhadbeenchuckedoff.Thingsareindisarray.Itispurportedthatthepolicestationwasn’tsecure.Thepeopledonotwanttogobackinfearofapossibleattackandfearthattheywillbeforgottenandtheyhadnothingtosustainthemselves,sincealltheirbelongshadbeenburneddownorvandalizedbytheBoranainvaders.AsItriedtoengagetheOCPDtoanegotiation,wereachedadealthatmenwillgofirsttosurveythesituationaccompaniedbyacontingentofpolicemen.Ioptedtodrivedownthevillageswiththemasawayofsolidarity.

THE CAMELS OF ISIOLO THAT SHOOT AND BURN

Heaven broke loose. The village is allashes. No house is standing. No sooneras we reached the first village, t h epeoplejumpedoutofthevehicles c r y i n g“look here was my house, look t h i swas my kitchen. Oh! Here, here t h e ycaughtupmybrother,here they k i l l e dhim” the people scattered, each t r y i n gto trace their homestead that was nolonger there. The exercise was guardedby Kenya police. Visible were exercisebooks, metallic and steel items that thefirecouldnotreducetocompleteashes.Thetears,thesoliloquiesandthelamentationsweresopainful.Thejournalistswhohad kept a distance nowcamecloser. Inoticeda young police officerwipingtearsandshaking his head vigorouslyand this hurt me the more. You can onlydiscover there were homesteadswhenyouseebricks,somespared iron sheets, someother household goods that had now beenturnedblack.Beforethe houses were torchedsome were vandalized and properties werescattered outside. The Catholic Church hadnot been burnt. But it had been seriouslyprofaned. The doors hadbeenbroken,thewindows smashed and the glass spread all over. Theholy of holiness, the altar, the tabernacle the mostsacred places had been tampered with and cut intopieces.IcouldnotunderstandthemotiveofdestroyinganddisfiguringthestatueofMary.TheposterbearingtheimageofPopeBenedict16hadbeenbadlypiercedandtherewasdisorderinthechurch.Rosarieswerecutinto pieces. Amanwas able to identify a rosary thatbelongedtohismother.Iblesseditandlethimcarryittoher.Intheschool,everythingwasintotalmessspreadallover.Thefurniturewasdamaged,cutintopiecesorsimply scattered out of place. At the head teacher’soffice,therewasnoplacetostepin.Thedesksandtheshelveshadbeendestroyedandallthematerialssprinkledonthefloor.Textbooks,exercisebooks,packetsofchalkhadbeenlittered.Asimilardreadfulfaceconfrontedusattheteachers’staffroom.Wetouredthevillagecollectingvariousitems;chairs,books,spoonseitherliftedfromtheschool,the



churchorhomesteadsandabandonedintheforest.

Ihadneverseensearchamassiveherdofcamelsatoneplaceatonegiventime.Theyfilled thewholeplace.Theyexceeded20.000camels. Thepolicemenhadpushedanequalnumberacrossthe mountains in the previous day. The menin seeing the camels were agitated, theybecame irate. The village elder explains “wesaw the camels first, as we wondered due totheir number, there was shooting and ourhousesbeganto burn”. He narrated how it allstarted.“Wehad not seen the owners, but thecamels. When wereported,wewereridiculedby the police officers; can camels shoot ortorch a house?” a heated discussion ensuredas policemen tried to explain to the elders’dissatisfaction. The situation was getting outofcontrol;IinvitedtheOCPDandhisteamforameetingwiththeeldersandprobablyinvitesomegroupsfromthecamelherderswhowerenotfar.TheofficersandTurkanaeldersacceptedbuttobringaBoranaonboardwasnotviable.Aftera fruitlesshourofconsultationtheOCPDdeclared;“youwill not goback to thebackyardof thepolice station, youeither remainhereor Iwill takeyou to the stadium” Roma l o c u a t acausafinita,Gameshort.At this timeaswesoughtthenextmove, the policeofficers jumped into their veh ic les ,and spade off at a terrific speed.Wewatched them desperately disappearandleaveusbehind.Asthedustcalmeddown,onlythe c a m e l sthat earlier we had known to “shootand torch” and 6 police o f f i c e r swere visible.We are at the m i d d l eof the camels at the battle field. Icalledthegroupforaprayer. Attheendof it, I could not only read my owntensionbutitwasinallthefacesinfrontme.Howcanwegetoutofhere?arewesafe?“Hapakunanjama,wametudanganyatuingiekwamagariyaonasasawametuletahapanakutuachiaadui.Hatunasilahakamawao,tenatukowachache.Hatakanikubaki,hatunachakula.Kwaniniwanatufanyiahivi”.Complainedoneman.

2hourslater,twoGKLorriesbroughtbackthewomenandchildren.Dumpedthemandwentback. Itwas assumed that shelters like tents, food,waterwill beprovidedbut all in vain. Peopleremainedindarkness,thenightwasunusuallychillyanddarkperhapstocelebratethemisfortune.Menorganizedthemselvestoremainawakeguardingtheirfamiliestillthefollowingday.Alllookedexhaustedandvisionless.Theyappearedapeoplewithoutafuturewithwideopeneyesofhopelessnesstosaytheleast.Somemothershadgivenupthestruggleandtheycomplained“kwaniniwasitumalizebadalayakutuangaishahivi.Hatahawaaskarisiwanabuduki, siwatuue,waendawakapumzike?” Igotdisturbedanddisappointed.Whereistheruleoflaw?Wherearetheexecutorsoflaw?WhoaretheleadersofIsiolowhoshouldintervenetorestorehopetothesedisplacedresidents?Whereistheconscienceofthegovernmentofficers?



By Fr. Makau Nicholas,

CoordinatorofJusticeandPeaceCommission

ConsolataMissionaries

[email protected]

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