Connecting Biodiversity and Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation

8/7/2019 Connecting Biodiversity and Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation.

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41CBD Technical Series No. 41Secretariat of the

Convention onBiological Diversity

Report of the Second Ad Hoc

Technical Expert Group on

Biodiversity and Climate

Change


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Connecting Biodiversity and Climate

Change Mitigation and Adaptationi

Report o the Second Ad Hoc Technical ExpertGroup on Biodiversity and Climate Change

CBD echnical Series No. 41

i Tis report has been welcomed by the Bureau o the Conerence o the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity. A ull

review by all Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity will occur during the ourteenth meeting o the Subsidiary Body onScientic, echnical and echnological Advice.


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Published by the Secretariat o the Convention on Biological Diversity ISBN: 92-9225-134-1Copyright 2009, Secretariat o the Convention on Biological Diversity

Te designations employed and the presentation o material in this publication do not imply theexpression o any opinion whatsoever on the part o the Secretariat o the Convention on BiologicalDiversity concerning the legal status o any country, territory, city or area or o its authorities, orconcerning the delimitation o its rontiers or boundaries.

Te views reported in this publication do not necessarily represent those o the Convention onBiological Diversity.

Tis publication may be reproduced or educational or non-prot purposes without special permis-sion rom the copyright holders, provided acknowledgement o the source is made. Te Secretariato the Convention would appreciate receiving a copy o any publications that use this document as a

source.

Citation

Secretariat o the Convention on Biological Diversity (2009). Connecting Biodiversity and ClimateChange Mitigation and Adaptation: Report o the Second Ad Hoc echnical Expert Group onBiodiversity and Climate Change. Montreal, echnical Series No. 41, 126 pages.

For urther inormation, please contactSecretariat o the Convention on Biological DiversityWorld rade Centre

413 St. Jacques Street, Suite 800Montreal, Quebec, Canada H2Y 1N9Phone: 1(514) 288 2220Fax: 1 (514) 288 6588E-mail: [email protected]: http://www.cbd.int

ypesetting: Em Dash Design

Cover photos courtesy o (top to bottom): Sonia Gautreau, Sonia Gautreau, Annie Cung, Annie Cung


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Report o the Second Ad Hoc echnical Expert Group on Biodiversity and Climate Change

FOREWORD

Te Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) has, as its three objectives, the con-

servation o biodiversity, the sustainable use o its components, and the air andequitable sharing o the benets rom the use o genetic resources. Eorts towardsthe achievement o these objectives are, however, coming under threat rom one othe worlds other major environmental, social and economic challengesclimatechange.

Climate change is threatening individual species such as the King Protea in SouthArica and the polar bear in the Arctic. Climate change is also threatening entire

ecosystems such as the cloud orests o South America and the coral rees o South-east Asia. Climatechange will aect where species live, when they move and how they interact.

Where species and ecosystems are well protected and healthy, natural adaptation may take place, as long asthe rate o change is not too rapid and the scale o change is not too great. However, where climate changestacks as an additional threat upon other stresses such as pollution, overuse or invasive alien species,natural adaptive capacity may be exceeded. It is important, thereore, to ensure that climate change is notconsidered in isolation.

In act, the links between biodiversity and climate change ow both ways. Biodiversity, and associatedecosystem services are the cornerstone o sustainable development. Tis relationship has long been rec-ognized through the decisions o the Conerence o Parties to the CBD and through the adoption o Mil-lennium Development Goal number seven on environmental sustainability. Biodiversity also has a veryimportant role to play in climate change mitigation and adaptation. Te importance o this relationship is

only now coming to light, spurred by decision IX/16 o the Conerence o the Parties to the CBD.

Te good management o ecosystems such as wetlands and orests, remains an eective mitigation optiongiven the high sequestration potential o natural systems. Te permanence o carbon sinks is also tied tothe maintenance or enhancement o the resilience o ecosystems.

With regards to climate change adaptation, healthy, intact ecosystems have long provided critical ecosys-tem services, providing people with ood and shelter, protecting communities rom drought and oods,and building the basis o much o our traditional knowledge, innovations and practices. As climate changethreatens ood security, increases exposure to natural disasters and changes the very nature o the environ-ment in which we live, these ecosystem services will become even more important and valued.

Tis document has been produced by a suite o world-renowned experts in the elds o biodiversity andclimate change. It was welcomed by the h meeting o the Bureau o the Conerence o the Parties to theCBD and helps up to better understand how these two great challenges interact and how we can best worktogether to achieve our common goals. Te scientic inormation contained in this report clearly demon-strates that the synergies among the three Rio Conventions are no longer an option but an urgent necessity.A joint work programme among the three Rio Conventions is an idea whose time has come.

Ahmed DjoghlaExecutive Secretary

Convention on Biological Diversity

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Connecting Biodiversity and Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation

List o Acronyms

AHEG: Ad-Hoc echnical Expert Group

AR4: Fourth Assessment Report (o the IPCC)CAIE: ropical Agricultural Research and Higher Education CenterCBA: cost-benet analysisCBD: Convention on Biological DiversityCBNRM: community-based natural resource managementCMP: Conservation Measures PartnershipCO2: Carbon dioxideCI: Coral riangle InitiativeCI-CFF: Coral riangle Initiative - Fisheries and Food SecurityEIA: environmental impact assessmentsENSO: El Nio Southern Oscillation

GCMs: general circulation modelsGHG: greenhouse gasGIS: geographic inormation systemsGMOs: genetically modied organismsGNP: gross national productGPP: gross primary productivityGt C: gigatons o carbonICARDA: International Centre or Agricultural Research in Dry AreasINBio: Conservation International, National Institute o BiodiversityIPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeIPCC SRES: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios

LCA: lie-cycle analysisMA: Millennium Ecosystem AssessmentMPAs: marine protected areasMSBP: Millennium Seed Bank ProjectNGOs: non-governmental organizationsNPP: net primary productivityPAs: protected areasREDD: reducing emissions rom deorestation and orest degradationSBSA: Subsidiary Body or Scientic and echnological AdviceSBSA: Subsidiary Body on Scientic, echnical and echnological AdviceSCS: strategic cyclical scaling

SEA: strategic environment assessmentSFM: sustainable orest managementSINAC: National System o Conservation AreasSIDS: small island developing StatesSLR: sea-level riseEEB: Te Economics o Ecosystems and BiodiversityEV: total economic valueNC: Te Nature ConservancyUNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeWO: World rade OrganizationWP: willingness to pay

WA: willingness to accept


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CONTENTS

LIS OF ACRONYMS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

PREFACE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6KEY MESSAGES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

A. Biodiversity and climate change interactions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8B. Impacts o climate change on biodiversity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8C. Reducing the impacts o climate change on biodiversity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9D. Ecosystem-based adaptation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9E. Implications o reducing emissions rom deorestation and orest degradation (REDD) and

other land-use management activities on biodiversity and climate change mitigation . . . . . . . 10F. Impacts o adaptation activities on biodiversity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12G. Impacts o alternative energy and geo-engineering on biodiversity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13H. Valuation and incentive measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

INRODUCION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

SECION 1: BIODIVERSIY-RELAED IMPACS OF ANHROPOGENIC

CLIMAE CHANGE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171.1 Te carbon cycle and observed and projected changes in climate. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171.2 Observed and projected impacts o climate change on biodiversity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181.3 ools or impact, risk and vulnerability assessments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231.4 Condence levels and uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

SECION 2: BIODIVERSIY AND CLIMAE CHANGE ADAPAION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 312.1 Reducing the impacts o climate change on biodiversity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 312.2 Impacts o adaptation activities on biodiversity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 372.3 Using biodiveristy to adapt to the adverse efects o climate change:

ecosystem-based adaptation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41

SECION 3: BIODIVERSIY AND CLIMAE-CHANGE MIIGAION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 513.1. Role o ecosystems in carbon storage and the carbon cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 513.2. Forestry- related climate change mitigation opportunities and considerations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 543.3. Other (non-orest) land use management climate change mitigation options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 573.4. Enhancing the contribution o land use management (including redd) to biodiversity

conservation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 583.5 Potential interactions between redd and biodiversity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 583.6 REDD and other land-use management activities, human livelihoods and indigenous

peoples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 593.7 Te impacts o other climate change mitigation activities on biodiversity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61

SECION 4: VALUAION AND INCENIVE MEASURES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 644.1 Valuing biodiversity and ecosystem services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 644.2 Case-studies o value derived rom linking biodiversity and climate change adaptation . . . . . . . . 694.3 Incentive measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71

GLOSSARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76ANNEX I. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77ANNEX II . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78ANNEX III . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85ANNEX IV . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104

REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108

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PREFACE

Te conservation and sustainable use o biodiversity and the equitable sharing o the benets rom

the use o genetic resources underpin sustainable development and human well being. Biodiversity,through the ecosystem servicesii it supports, makes an important contribution to both climate-changemitigation and adaptation. Biodiversity is also aected by climate change, with negative consequencesor human well-being. Consequently conserving and sustainably managing biodiversity is critical toaddressing climate change.

Te interlinkages between biodiversity, climate change, and sustainable development, have been recog-nized within both the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and theConvention on Biological Diversity (CBD) as well as other international ora. Article 2 o the UNFCCC,or example, recognizes the importance o limiting climate change to a level that would allow ecosys-tems to adapt naturally to climate change. Te CBD has adopted a number o decisions on biodiversity

and climate change, and in 2001 ormed an Ad Hoc echnical Expert Group (AHEG) on Biodiversityand Climate Change, to consider the possible negative impacts o climate change related activities onbiodiversity, identiy the role o biodiversity in climate change mitigation and identiy opportunities orachieving climate change and biodiversity co-benets.

Since the rst AHEG completed its work, the scientic inormation and degree o certainty regardingthe relationship between biodiversity and climate change has expanded signicantly. In order to supportadditional work on this issue, the second AHEG on Biodiversity and Climate Change was convened in2008 in response to paragraph 12 (b) o decision IX/16 B o the Conerence o the Parties to the CBD.

Te second AHEG was established to provide biodiversity-related inormation to the UNFCCC pro-

cess through the provision o scientic and technical advice and assessment on the integration o theconservation and sustainable use o biodiversity into climate change mitigation and adaptation activi-ties, through inter alia:

(a) Identiying relevant tools, methodologies and best practice examples or assessing the im-pacts on and vulnerabilities o biodiversity as a result o climate change;

(b) Highlighting case-studies and identiying methodologies or analysing the value o biodiver-sity in supporting adaptation in communities and sectors vulnerable to climate change;

(c) Identiying case-studies and general principles to guide local and regional activities aimed atreducing risks to biodiversity values associated with climate change;

(d) Identiying potential biodiversity-related impacts and benets o adaptation activities, espe-

cially in the regions identied as being particularly vulnerable under the Nairobi work pro-gramme (developing countries, especially least developed countries and small island develop-ing States);

(e) Identiying ways and means or the integration o the ecosystem approach in impact andvulnerability assessment and climate change adaptation strategies;

() Identiying measures that enable ecosystem restoration rom the adverse impacts o climatechange which can be eectively considered in impact, vulnerability and climate change adap-tation strategies;

(g) Analysing the social, cultural and economic benets o using ecosystem services or climatechange adaptation and o maintaining ecosystem services by minimizing adverse impacts o

ii In this document the term ecosystem services is used as dened in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Ecosystem services asused in this manner includes both good and services.


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climate change on biodiversity.(h) Proposing ways and means to improve the integration o biodiversity considerations and tra-

ditional and local knowledge related to biodiversity within impact and vulnerability assess-

ments and climate change adaptation, with particular reerence to communities and sectorsvulnerable to climate change.

(i) Identiying opportunities to deliver multiple benets or carbon sequestration, and biodiver-sity conservation and sustainable use in a range o ecosystems including peatlands, tundraand grasslands;

(j) Identiying opportunities or, and possible negative impacts on, biodiversity and its conserva-tion and sustainable use, as well as livelihoods o indigenous and local communities, that mayarise rom reducing emissions rom deorestation and orest degradation;

(k) Identiying options to ensure that possible actions or reducing emissions rom deorestationand orest degradation do not run counter to the objectives o the CBD but rather support theconservation and sustainable use o biodiversity;

(l) Identiying ways that components o biodiversity can reduce risk and damage associated withclimate change impacts;

(m) Identiying means to incentivise the implementation o adaptation actions that promote theconservation and sustainable use o biodiversity.

In order to ull its mandate, the rst meeting o the second AHEG took place in London rom 17 to21 November 2008; the second meeting took place in Helsinki rom 18 to 22 April 2009. A third meet-ing was held in Cape own, South Arica, rom 20 to 24 July 2009, in order to incorporate peer-reviewcomments submitted by 10 Parties and 17 other organizations.

Te nal report o the AHEG has been guided by relevant outcomes rom the Conerence o the Par-

ties and the subsidiary bodies o the UNFCCC as well as the programmes o work and cross-cutting is-sues under the CBD. Te report builds on the ndings o the rst AHEG, which are published as CBDechnical Series No. 10 and No. 25 and draws on the reports o the Millennium Ecosystem Assessmentand the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, including the Fourth Assessment Report andechnical Report V1 on Climate Change and Biodiversity.

A dra report, including main messages as compiled by the AHEG was initially made available to par-ticipants to the ourteenth session o the Conerence o the Parties to the UNFCCC and, an expandedset o key messages was made available at the thirtieth session o the Subsidiary Body or Scientic andechnical Advice to the UNFCCC. Te nal report will be made available to the eenth session o theConerence o the Parties to the UNFCCC, including the thirty-rst session o its Subsidiary Body or

Scientic and echnical Advice, and the ourteenth meeting o the Subsidiary Body on Scientic, ech-nical and echnological Advice under the Convention on Biological Diversity.


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KEY MESSAGES

A. BIODIVERSITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE INTERACTIONS

The issues o climate change and biodiversity are interconnected, not only through climate

change eects on biodiversity, but also through changes in biodiversity that aect climate

change

Conserving natural terrestrial, reshwater and marine ecosystems and restoring degraded ecosys-tems (including their genetic and species diversity) is essential or the overall goals o the UNFCCCbecause ecosystems play a key role in the global carbon cycle and in adapting to climate change,while also providing a wide range o ecosystem services that are essential or human well-being andthe achievement o the Millennium Development Goals.

o About 2,500 Gt C is stored in terrestrial ecosystems, an additional ~ 38,000 Gt C is stored

in the oceans (37,000 Gt in deep oceans i.e. layers that will only eed back to atmosphericprocesses over very long time scales and ~ 1,000 Gt in the upper layer o oceans 2) comparedto approximately 750 Gt C in the atmosphere. On average ~160 Gt C cycle naturally betweenthe biosphere (in both ocean and terrestrial ecosystems) and atmosphere. Tus, small changesin ocean and terrestrial sources and sinks can have large implications or atmospheric CO2levels. Human induced climate change caused by the accumulation o anthropogenic emis-sions in the atmosphere (primarily rom ossil uels and land use changes) could shi the netnatural carbon cycle towards annual net emissions rom terrestrial sinks, and weaken oceansinks, thus urther accelerating climate change.

o Ecosystems provide a wide range o provisioning (e.g. ood and bre), regulating (e.g. climatechange and oods), cultural (e.g. recreational and aesthetic) and supporting (e.g. soil orma-

tion) services, critical to human well-being including human health, livelihoods, nutritiousood, security and social cohesion.

While ecosystems are generally more carbon dense and biologically more diverse in their naturalstate, the degradation o many ecosystems is signicantly reducing their carbon storage and seques-tration capacity, leading to increases in emissions o greenhouse gases and loss o biodiversity at thegenetic, species and ecosystem level;

Climate change is a rapidly increasing stress on ecosystems and can exacerbate the eects o otherstresses, including rom habitat ragmentation, loss and conversion, over-exploitation, invasivealien species, and pollution.

B. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON BIODIVERSITY

Observed changes in climate have already adversely aected biodiversity at the species and

ecosystem level, and urther changes in biodiversity are inevitable with urther changes in

climate

Changes in the climate and in atmospheric CO2 levels have already had observed impacts on nat-ural ecosystems and species. Some species and ecosystems are demonstrating some capacity ornatural adaptation, but others are already showing negative impacts under current levels o climatechange (an increase o 0.75C in global mean surace temperature relative to pre-industrial levels),which is modest compared to uture projected changes (2.0-7.5 C by 2100 without aggressive miti-gation actions).


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Aquatic reshwater habitats and wetlands, mangroves, coral rees, Arctic and alpine ecosystems,and cloud orests are particularly vulnerable to the impacts o climate change. Montane speciesand endemic species have been identied as being particularly vulnerable because o narrow geo-

graphic and climatic ranges, limited dispersal opportunities, and the degree o other pressures. Inormation in Fourth Assessment Report o the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC AR4) suggests that approximately 10% o species assessed so ar will be at an increasinglyhigh risk o extinction or every 1C rise in global mean temperature, within the range o uturescenarios modelled in impacts assessments (typically


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Ecosystem-based adaptation uses biodiversity and ecosystem services in an overall adaptationstrategy. It includes the sustainable management, conservation and restoration o ecosystems toprovide services that help people adapt to the adverse eects o climate change.

Examples o ecosystem-based adaptation activities include:o Coastal deence through the maintenance and/or restoration o mangroves and other coastal

wetlands to reduce coastal ooding and coastal erosion.o Sustainable management o upland wetlands and oodplains or maintenance o water ow

and quality.o Conservation and restoration o orests to stabilize land slopes and regulate water ows.o Establishment o diverse agroorestry systems to cope with increased risk rom changed cli-

matic conditions.o Conservation o agrobiodiversity to provide specic gene pools or crop and livestock adapta-

tion to climate change. Ecosystem-based adaptation can be a useul and widely applicable approach to adaptation because it:

o Can be applied at regional, national and local levels, at both project and programmatic levels,and benets can be realized over short and long time scales.

o May be more cost-eective and more accessible to rural or poor communities than measuresbased on hard inrastructure and engineering.

o Can integrate and maintain traditional and local knowledge and cultural values. Ecosystem-based adaptation, i designed, implemented and monitored appropriately, can also:

o Generate multiple social, economic and cultural co-benets or local communities.o Contribute to the conservation and sustainable use o biodiversity.

o Contribute to climate change mitigation, by conserving carbon stocks, reducing emissionscaused by ecosystem degradation and loss, or enhancing carbon stocks.

Ecosystem-based adaptation may require managing ecosystems to provide particular services at

the expense o others. For example, using wetlands or coastal protection may require emphasison silt accumulation and stabilization possibly at the expense o wildlie values and recreation. It isthereore important that decisions to implement ecosystem-based adaptation are subject to risk as-sessment, scenario planning and adaptive management approaches that recognise and incorporatethese potential trade-os.

E. IMPLICATIONS OF REDUCING EMISSIONS FROM DEFORESTATION AND FOREST

DEGRADATION (REDD) AND OTHER LAND-USE MANAGEMENT ACTIVITIES ON

BIODIVERSITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION

A portolio o landuse management activities including REDD can costeectively contribute

to mitigating climate change and conserving biodiversity

A portolio o land use management activities, including the protection o natural orest and peat-land carbon stocks, the sustainable management o orests, the use o native assemblages o orestspecies in reorestation activities, sustainable wetland management, restoration o degraded wet-lands and sustainable agricultural practices can contribute to the objectives o both the UNFCCCand CBD. Tese activities, in addition to stringent reductions in ossil uel emissions o greenhousegases, play an important role in limiting increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrationsand human-induced climate change.

Te potential to reduce emissions and increase the sequestration o carbon rom land use manage-ment activities is estimated to range rom 0.5-4 GtCO2-eq per year or orestry activities (REDD,

aorestation, orest management, agroorestry), and 1-6 GtCO2-eq per year or agricultural land


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activities. Achieving this potential is dependent upon the design and mode o implementation othese activities, and the extent to which they are supported and enabled by technology, nancingand capacity building.

Primary orests are generally more carbon-dense and biologically diverse than other orest ecosys-tems, including modied natural orests and plantations. Accordingly, in largely intact orest land-scapes where there is currently little deorestation and degradation occurring, the conservationo existing orests, especially primary orests, is critical both or preventing uture greenhouse gasemissions through loss o carbon stocks and ensuring continued sequestration, and or conservingbiodiversity. Te application o even sustainable orest management practices to previously intactprimary orests could lead to increased carbon emissions.

In orest landscapes currently subject to harvesting, clearing and/or degradation, mitigation andbiodiversity conservation can be best achieved by addressing the underlying drivers o deoresta-tion and degradation, and improving the sustainable management o orests.

In natural orest landscapes that have already been largely cleared and degraded, mitigation and

biodiversity conservation can be enhanced through reorestation, orest restoration and improvedland management which, through the use o native assemblages o species, can improve biodiver-sity and its associated services while sequestering carbon.

While protected areas are primarily designated or the purpose o biodiversity conservation theyhave additional value in storing and sequestering carbon (about 15% o the terrestrial carbon stockis currently within protected areas). Eectively managing and expanding protected area networkscould contribute to climate change mitigation by reducing both current and uture greenhouse gasemissions, and protecting existing carbon stocks, while at the same time protecting certain biodi-

versity. In general, reducing deorestation and degradation will positively impact biodiversity conserva-

tion, but this will be negated i deorestation and degradation is displaced rom an area o lower

conservation value to one o higher conservation value or to other native ecosystems. Aorestation activities can have positive or negative eects on biodiversity and ecosystem services

depending on their design and management and the present land use. Aorestation activities thatconvert non-orested landscapes with high biodiversity values and/or valuable ecosystem services,increase threats to native biodiversity. However, aorestation activities could help to conserve bio-diversity i they, or example, convert only degraded land or ecosystems largely composed o exoticspecies, include native tree species, consider the invasiveness o non-natives, and are strategicallylocated within the landscape to enhance connectivity.

Te design o REDD will have key implications or where and how REDD is implemented and theassociated impacts on biodiversity. Some relevant issues are:

o Implementing REDD activities in areas identied as having both high biodiversity value and high

carbon stocks can provide co-benets or biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation;o Addressing orest degradation is important because degradation leads to loss o carbon and

biodiversity, decreases orest resilience to re and drought, and can lead to deorestation;o Both intra-national and international leakage under REDD can have important consequences

or both carbon and biodiversity, and thereore needs to be prevented or minimized;o REDD methodologies based only on assessments o net deorestation rates could ail to reect

actual changes in carbon stocks and ail to deliver conservation co-benets;o Addressing the underlying drivers o deorestation and degradation will require a wide vari-

ety o ecological, social and economic approaches;o I REDD is to achieve signicant and permanent emissions reductions, it will be important to

provide alternative livelihood options (including employment, income and ood security) or

those people who are currently the agents o deorestation and degradation.


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While it is generally recognized that REDD and other sustainable land management activities ormitigation have potential benets, including critical ecosystem services, or orest-dwelling in-digenous peoples and local communities, a number o conditions are important or realizing these

co-benets, e.g., indigenous peoples are likely to benet more rom REDD and other sustainableland management activities or mitigation where they own their lands; where there is the principleo ree, prior and inormed consent, and where their identities and cultural practices are recognizedand they have space to participate in policy-making processes. Involving local stakeholders, in par-Involving local stakeholders, in par-ticular women, and respecting the rights and interests o indigenous and local communities will beimportant or the long-term sustainability o the eorts undertaken.

Tere is a range o activities in the agricultural sector including; conservation tillage and othermeans o sustainable cropland management, sustainable livestock management, and agroorestrysystems that can result in the maintenance and potential increase o current carbon stocks and theconservation and sustainable use o biodiversity.

Policies that integrate and promote the conservation and enhanced sequestration o soil carbon,

including in peatlands and other wetlands as well as in grasslands and savannahs, can contribute toclimate change mitigation and be benecial or biodiversity and ecosystem services.

F. IMPACTS OF ADAPTATION ACTIVITIES ON BIODIVERSITY

Activities to adapt to the adverse impacts o climate change can have positive or negative

eects on biodiversity, but tools are available to increase the positive and decrease the

negative eects

Adaptation to the adverse impacts o climate change can have both positive and negative conse-quences or biodiversity and ecosystem services, depending on the way in which such strategies are

implemented, or example:o Increasing the diversity o landscapes and interconnecting agro-ecosystems, natural ood-

plains, orests and other ecosystems can contribute to the climate resilience o both humancommunities and biodiversity and ecosystem services.

o Hard inrastructure in coastal areas (e.g. sea walls, dykes, etc.) can oen adversely impactnatural ecosystem processes by altering tidal current ows, disrupting or disconnecting eco-logically related coastal marine communities, and disturbing sediment or nutrition ows.

In most cases there is the potential to increase positive and reduce negative impacts o adaptationon biodiversity. ools or identiying these impacts include strategic environmental assessments(SEA), environmental impact assessments (EIA), and technology impact assessments that acilitatethe consideration o all adaptation options.

Te planning and implementation o eective adaptation activities that take into account impactson biodiversity, can benet rom:

o Considering traditional knowledge, including the ull involvement o indigenous peoples andlocal communities.

o Dening measurable outcomes that are monitored and evaluated.o Building on a scientically credible knowledge base.

o Applying the ecosystem approach.iii

iii Te ecosystem approach includes twelve steps or the integrated management o land, water and living resources to promote conserva-

tion and sustainable use in an equitable way. Further details on the ecosystem approach are presented on the CBD website (http://www.cbd.int/ecosystem) and in box.2 on page 31 below.


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o optimize their eectiveness and generate biodiversity co-benets, adaptation activities should:o Maintain intact and interconnected ecosystems to increase resilience and allow biodiversity

and people to adjust to changing environmental conditions.

o Restore or rehabilitate ragmented or degraded ecosystems, and re-establish critical processessuch as water ow to maintain ecosystem unctions.

o Ensure the sustainable use o renewable natural resources.o Collect, conserve and disseminate traditional and local knowledge, innovations and prac-

tices related to biodiversity conservation and sustainable use with prior and inormed consentrom traditional knowledge holders.

G. IMPACTS OF ALTERNATIVE ENERGY AND GEO-ENGINEERING ON BIODIVERSITY

Some renewable energy sources, which displace the use o ossil uels, and geo

engineering techniques, can have adverse eects on biodiversity depending on design and

implementation

Renewable energy sources, including onshore and oshore wind, solar, tidal, wave, geothermal, bio-mass and hydropower, in addition to nuclear power, can displace ossil uel energy, thus reducinggreenhouse gas emissions, but have potential implications or biodiversity and ecosystem services.

o While bioenergy can contribute to energy security, rural development and mitigating climatechange, there is evidence that, depending on the eedstock used and production schemes, somerst generation biouels (i.e., use o ood crops or liquid uels) are accelerating land use change,including deorestation, with adverse eects on biodiversity.3 In addition, i a ull lie cycle anal-ysis is taken into account, biouels production may not currently be reducing greenhouse gasemissionsiv.

o Hydropower, which has substantial unexploited potential in many developing countries, canpotentially mitigate greenhouse gas emissions by displacing ossil uel production o energy, butlarge scale hydropower systems can have adverse biodiversity and social eects.

o Te implications o wind and tidal power or biodiversity are dependent upon siting and otherdesign eatures.

Articial ertilization o nutrient limited oceans to increase the uptake o atmospheric carbon dioxideis increasingly thought to have limited potential or climate change mitigation and uncertain impactson biodiversity.

Other geo-engineering techniques, such as the intentional and large- scale manipulation o the ra-diative balance o the atmosphere through injecting sulphate aerosols into the troposphere or strato-sphere, have not been adequately studied and hence their impact on ecosystems is unknown.

H. VALUATION AND INCENTIVE MEASURES

The consideration o economic and noneconomic values o biodiversity and ecosystem

services, and related incentives and instruments can be benecial when implementing

climate change related activities

It is important to ensure that the economic (market and non-market) and non-economic values obiodiversity and ecosystem services are taken into account when planning and undertaking climatechange related activities. Tis can best be achieved by using a range o valuation techniques.

iv Te expert rom Brazil disassociated himsel rom this statement.


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Ecosystem services contribute to economic well-being and associated development goals, such asthe Millennium Development Goals, in two major ways through contributions to the generationo income and material goods (e.g., provisioning o ood and ber), and through the reduction o

potential costs o adverse impacts o climate change (e.g., coral rees and mangrove swamps protectcoastal inrastructure).

Both economic and non-economic incentives could be used to acilitate climate change related ac-tivities that take into consideration biodiversity, while ensuring conormity with provisions o theWorld rade Organization and other international agreements:

o Economic measures include: Removing environmentally perverse subsidies to sectors such as agriculture, sheries,

and energy; Introducing payments or ecosystem services; Implementing appropriate pricing policies or natural resources; Establishing mechanisms to reduce nutrient releases and promote carbon uptake; and

Applying ees, taxes, levies, and taris to discourage activities that degrade ecosystemservices.

o Non-economic incentives and activities include improving or addressing: Laws and regulations; Governance structures, nationally and internationally; Individual and community property or land rights; Access rights and restrictions; Inormation and education; Policy, planning, and management o ecosystems; and Development, deployment, diusion and transer o technologies relevant or biodiver-

sity and climate change adaptation (e.g. technology that makes use o genetic resources,

and technology to manage natural disasters)o Assessing policies in all sectors can reduce or eliminate cross-sectoral impacts on biodiversity

and ecosystem services. Incentives or climate-change-related activities should be careully designed to simultaneously con-

sider cultural, social, economic and biophysical actors while avoiding market distortions, such asthrough tari and non-tari barriers.


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INTRODUCTION

1. Scientic evidence shows that climate change is likely to challenge the realization o sustainable

development including the Millennium Development Goals.4 In particular, climate change is projectedto reduce the livelihood assets o vulnerable people, especially those that are dependent on biodiversityand ecosystem services such as access to ood, water and shelter. Climate change is also expected to havea negative impact on traditional coping mechanisms and ood security5 thereby increasing the vulner-ability o the worlds poor to amine and perturbations such as drought, ood and disease. Finally, theimpacts o climate change on natural resources6 and labour productivity are likely to reduce economicgrowth, exacerbating poverty through reduced income opportunities.

2. Anthropogenic climate change is also threatening biodiversity and the continued provision oecosystem services. Hence the global community has issued an urgent call or additional research andaction towards reducing the impacts o climate change on biodiversity and increasing synergy o bio-

diversity conservation and sustainable use with climate change mitigation and adaptation activities.Furthermore, in the ace o multiple and increasing challenges and their likely cost implications, a needhas been identied or additional research on ways and means to ensure that biodiversity conservationand sustainable use can provide co-benets or other sectors, including or climate change mitigationand adaptation.

3. In light o the above, the present document has been prepared by the Second Ad Hoc echnicalExpert Group on Biodiversity and Climate Change. Te document addresses a range o topics as reect-ed in the terms o reerence o the Expert Group. Section 1 o the document examines the observed andprojected impacts o climate change on biodiversity. Te section urther considers issues o uncertaintyand presents suggestions or additional research needed to qualiy complex processes and interactions

and increase the degree o certainty with regards to both impacts and vulnerability.

4. Section 2 examines the links between biodiversity and climate change adaptation including thecontribution o biodiversity to eective adaptation and the potential risks and benets o adaptationactivities or biodiversity. Te section elaborates on the concept and practice o ecosystem-based adap-tation and presents suggestions on how broader adaptation activities to address the adverse eects oclimate change can be designed and implemented in order to strengthen the adaptive capacity o biodi-

versity, maximize co-benets across sectors and avoid unintended negative consequences on ecosystemservices.

5. Section 3 examines the links between biodiversity and climate change mitigation with a particular

ocus on land use management activities and reducing emissions rom deorestation and orest degra-dation. Te section explores the potential contribution o biodiversity conservation and sustainableuse to mitigation eorts and suggests ways in which co-benets can be enhanced. Finally, the sectionexamines the potential positive and negative impacts o mitigation activities on biodiversity (e.g. renew-able energy technologies) while highlighting those mitigation approaches, such as geo-engineering, orwhich additional research is required.

6. Finally, section 4 provides inormation on techniques or valuing biodiversity highlighting thatapplying these techniques can quantiy costs and benets, opportunities and challenges and thus canimprove decision making with regards to climate change related activities. Te section urther presentsoptions on incentive measures that could be adopted so as to urther elaborate the links between biodi-

versity and climate change related activities.


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7. Troughout the document, case-studies are used to illustrate good-practice examples and lessonslearned. Furthermore, wherever possible, tools and methodologies are elaborated in order to provideconcrete and practical scientic and technical advice.


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SECTION 1: BIODIVERSITY-RELATED IMPACTS OFANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGE

8. Anthropogenic climate change is already having observable impacts on biodiversity and ecosys-tem services. In addition, projections o uture climate change impacts indicate urther impacts, whichmay exceed the current adaptive capacity o many species and ecosystems. Section 1, thereore, exam-ines the observed and projected impacts o climate change on biodiversity.

1.1 THE CARBON CYCLE AND OBSERVED AND PROJECTED CHANGES IN CLIMATE

9. Te Fourth Assessment Report o the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4)7revealed a global mean surace temperature increase rom 1850-1899 to 2001-2005 o 0.76C with thewarming trend escalating over the past 50 years, land areas warming more than the oceans, and highlatitudes warming more than the tropics.

10. Te IPCC AR4 also reported that, in the absence o climate mitigation policies the global meansurace temperature is projected to increase by 1.1C to 6.4C by the end o the 21st century relative tothe 1980-1999 baseline, accompanied by changes in the spatial and temporal distribution o precipita-tion with a tendency o wet areas getting wetter and arid and semi-arid areas getting drier.

11. Even with climate-mitigation policies, signicant climate change is inevitable due to lagged re-sponses in the Earth climate system (so-called unrealized warming). A urther increase in global meansurace temperature o about 0.5oC is inevitable even i the atmospheric concentration o greenhousegases could be stabilized immediately.

12. Stabilization o the atmospheric concentration o greenhouse gases at 450, 550 and 650 ppm CO-2eq would provide about a 50% chance o limiting projected changes in global mean surace tempera-ture to 2oC, 3oC, and 4oC, respectively.

13. Carbon is sequestered and stored by terrestrial and marine ecosystems, and the processes whichconstitute and sustain this ecosystem service are inseparably linked to biodiversity. About 2,500 Gt C isstored in terrestrial ecosystems, compared to approximately 750Gt C in the atmosphere.8 An additional~ 38,000 Gt C is stored in the oceans (37,000 Gt in deep oceans i.e. layers that will only eed back toatmospheric processes over very long time scales, ~ 1,000 Gt in the upper layer o oceans.9 On average~160 Gt C cycle naturally between the biosphere (both ocean and terrestrial ecosystems) and atmo-sphere. Tus, rather small changes in ocean and terrestrial sources and sinks can have large implications

or atmospheric CO2 levels.

14. Te current accumulation o anthropogenic emissions in the atmosphere could shi the net natu-ral carbon cycle towards annual net emissions rom terrestrial sinks, and weaken ocean sinks, thus ur-ther accelerating climate change. It is generally agreed one o the main eedbacks to the climate systemwill be through the increase in soil respiration under increased temperature,10 particularly in the Arctic,with the potential to increase the rate o CO2 emissions by up to 66% as a result o global soil carbon lossand orest dieback in Amazonia as a consequence o climate change 11 which will also cause increasedseasonal water stress in the Eastern Amazon which could increase susceptibility to re.12


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1.2 OBSERVED AND PROJECTED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON BIODIVERSITY

Anthropogenic changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 are already having observable

impacts on ecosystems and species; some species and ecosystems are demonstrating

apparent capacity or natural adaptation, but others are showing negative impacts. Impacts

are widespread even with the modest level o change observed thus ar in comparison to

some uture projections.

15. Climate change is a rapidly increasing stress on ecosystems and can exacerbate the eects oother stresses, including rom habitat ragmentation and conversion, over-exploitation, invasive alienspecies, and pollution.

16. Observed signs o natural adaptation and negative impacts include:

Geographic distributions: Te geographic ranges o species are shiing towards higher latitudesand elevations.13 While this can be interpreted as natural adaptation, caution is advised, as theecological eects o related community compositional change, the net eect o such range shis onrange area (i.e. the balance between range contraction and expansion or any given species), andrelated species extinction risk,14 is difcult to project; and there are geographic and dispersal ratelimits, physical barriers,15 and anthropogenic barriers to species range expansion.16 Range shishave mostly been studied in temperate zones,17 due to the availability o long data records; changesat tropical and sub-tropical latitudes will be more difcult to detect and attribute due to a lack otime series data and variability o precipitation. Nevertheless, biodiversity losses have already beenreported in some tropical areas.18

iming o lie cycles (phenology): changes to the timing o natural events have now been doc-

umented in many hundreds o studies and may signal natural adaptation by individual species.Changes include advances in spring events (e.g. lea unolding, owering, and reproduction) anddelays in autumn events.19

Interactions between species: evidence o the disruption o biotic interactions is emerging. Forexample, dierential changes in timing are leading to mismatches between the peak o resourcedemands by reproducing animals and the peak o resource availability. Tis is causing populationdeclines in many species, including increasing the herbivory rates20 by insects as a result o warmertemperatures, and may indicate limits to natural adaptation.

Photosynthetic rates, carbon uptake and productivity in response to CO2 ertilization and

nitrogen deposition: models and some observations suggest that global gross primary produc-tion (GPP) has increased. Regional modelling eorts project ongoing increases in GPP21 or some

regions, but possible declines in others. Furthermore, in some areas, CO2 ertilization is avouringast growing species over slower growing ones and changing the composition o natural communi-ties while not appreciably changing the GPP.22

Community composition and ecosystem changes: observed structural and unctional changesin ecosystems are resulting in substantial changes in species abundance and composition.23 Tesehave impacts on livelihoods and traditional knowledge including, or example, changing the timingo hunting and shing and traditional sustainable use activities, as well as impacting upon tradi-tional migration routes or people.

During the course o this century the resilience o many ecosystems their ability to adapt

naturally is likely to be eceeded by an unprecedented combination o change in climate,

associated disturbances e.g., ooding, drought, wildre, insects, ocean acidication and


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in other global change drivers especially landuse change, pollution and overeploitation

o resources, i greenhouse gas emissions and other changes continue at or above current

rates.v

17. Many o the mass extinctions that have occurred over geologic time were tied, at least in part,to climate changes that occurred at rates much slower than those projected or the next century.

Tese results may be seen as potentially indicative but are not analogues to the current situation, ascontinents were in dierent positions, oceanic circulation patterns were dierent and the overall com-position o biodiversity was signicantly dierent. It should also be kept in mind that these extinctionsoccurred with the temperature change taking place over tens o thousands o years vi 24. Tis is in contrastto the much more rapid rate o temperature change observed and projected today25.

18. Further climate change will have increasingly signicant direct impacts on biodiversity. In-creased rates o species extinctions are likely26, with negative consequences or the services that these spe-

cies and ecosystems provide. Poleward and elevational shis, as well as range contractions and ragmen-tation, are expected to accelerate in the uture. Contractions and ragmentation will be particularly severeor species with limited dispersal abilities, slower lie history traits, and range restricted species such aspolar and alpine species27 and speciesrestricted to riverine28 and reshwaterhabitats29. Local extinction o speciesoen occurs with a substantial delayollowing habitat loss or degradation.Accumulating evidence suggests thatsuch extinction debts pose a signi-cant but oen unrecognized challenge

or biodiversity conservation across awide range o taxa and ecosystems30.Shis in distributions o native spe-cies as an adaptive response to climatechange will challenge current wildlieand conservation management prac-tices and approaches.

19. Increasing CO2 concentrations are altering the basic physical and chemical environment underpinning all lie, especially temperature, precipitation, and acidity. Atmospheric concentrations oCO2, which are approximately 38% higher today than the average over the past 2.1 million years

31, can

themselves have important direct inuences on biological systems, which can reinorce or act counterto responses to climate variables and complicate projection o uture responses. Te direct eects oelevated atmospheric CO2 are especially important in marine ecosystems, including as a result o in-creased ocean acidication32, and in terrestrial systems that are not strongly resource limited18. ElevatedCO2 can also have large eects on the production, diversity, structure and unction o water-limitedsystems, by improving plant-water relations33 .

20. Climate change will also aect species indirectly, by aecting species interactions. Individual-istic responses o species to climate and atmospheric change may result in novel species combinations

v Tis statement is extracted verbatim rom IPCC WG2 Chapter 4 conclusions.

vi It should be noted that past climate changes, especially at glacial terminations, may have been rapid (e.g. the Greenland Summit

warmed 9 3C over a period o several decades, beginning 14,672 years ago, according to re 22), but associated extinctions areeither not well quantied or clearly attributed to climate drivers.

Hawksbill turtles, Nicaragua, Photo courtesy o Sonia Gautreau


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and ecosystems that have no present-day analogue (a nding supported by paleoecological studies).Tese impacts on communities may be more damaging in some regions than the direct eects o climatechanges on individual species, and may compromise sustainable development. Te impacts o climate

change on species will have cascading aects on community associations and ecosystems leading tonon-linear responses, with thresholds that are not yet well understood.

21. Climate change will interact with other pressures acting on natural systems, most notablyland use and landuse change, invasive alien species and disturbance by re. Land-use change andrelated habitat loss are currently major threats to biodiversity worldwide. Climate change is also verylikely to acilitate the spread and establishment o invasive alien species 34. Tese pressures ampliy cli-mate change eects by causing ragmentation, degradation and drying o ecosystems, including in-creased incidence o re35, which is oen exacerbated during climatic events like El Nio. Tus, it is vitalto consider the eects o climate change in the context o interacting pressures and the inuence theymay exert directly on natural systems and on those systems abilities to respond to climate change36.

22. Climate change will have signicant impacts on re regimes, with eects on the unction omany terrestrial ecosystems and with important eedbacks to the climate system37. Fire is an es-sential natural process or the unctioning o many ecosystems. In these ecosystems, re aects thedistribution o habitats, carbon and nutrient uxes, and the water retention properties o soils. However,re-ecosystem relationships are being altered by climate change, with signicant consequences or otherecological processes, including carbon sequestration, and or biodiversity38. In ecosystems adapted tore and dependent on it or unctioning, re exclusion oen results in reduced biodiversity and in-creased vegetation and uel density, oen increasing risks o catastrophic re over time.It is estimatedthat ecosystems with anthropogenically altered re regimes currently encompass over 60% o globalterrestrial areas, and only 25% o terrestrial areas retain unaected (natural) re regime conditions 39.

Eective biodiversity conservation requires that re regimes are able to play their role in maintainingecosystem unctioning, but at the same time do not pose a threat to biodiversity or human well-beingthrough excessive occurrence.

Etinction risks associated with climate change will increase, but projecting the rate o

etinction is difcult due to lags in species population responses, incomplete knowledge o

natural adaptive capacity, the comple cascade o interspecies interactions in communities,

and the uncertainty around downscaled regional predictions o uture climate.

23. Inormation in IPCC AR4 suggests that approximately 10% o species assessed so ar are at anincreasingly high risk o extinction or every 1C rise in global mean temperaturevii, within the range

o uture scenarios modeled in impacts assessments (typically


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The negative impacts o climate change on biodiversity have signicant economic and

ecological costs

24. A key property o ecosystems that may be aected by climate change is the goods and servicesthey provide. Tese include provisioning services such as sheries and timber production, where theresponse to climate change depends on population characteristics as well as local conditions and mayinclude large production losses.41 Climate change also aects the ability o ecosystems to regulate waterows, and cycle nutrients.

25. Tere is ample evidence that warming will alter the patterns o plant and animal diseases.Current research projects increases in economically important plant pathogens with warming. Terehas also been considerable recent concern over the role o climate change in the expansion o plant andanimal disease vectors.42 For example, short-term local experiments have demonstrated the impacts opredicted global change on plant health including rice. Furthermore, studies o the impacts o climate

change on the range o East Coast ever, a tick-borne cattle disease, show increases in areas o potentialoccurrence in Arica.43

26. Te impacts o climate change on biodiversity will change human disease vectors and exposure. Climate change is predicted to result in the expansion o a number o human disease vectorsand/or increase the areas o exposure. For example, the increased inundation o coastal wetlands bytides may result in avourable conditions or saltwater mosquito breeding and associated increases inmosquito-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue ever.

27. Climate change aects the ability o ecosystems to regulate water ows. Te regulation o wa-ter quality and quantity is a key ecosystem service worldwide. Higher temperatures, changing insola-

tion and cloud cover, and the degradation o ecosystem structure result in the occurrence o more andhigher peak-ows on the one hand and in the mean time, impede the ability o ecosystems to regulatewater ow. Tis has major consequences or both ecosystems and associated species assemblages andpeople in the scale o whole catchment areas. In addition to reshwater and wetlands, riverine and al-luvial ecosystems and many orest types are aected by changes in the hydrological regime.44

28. Climate change will have important impacts on biodiversity with agricultural and other usevalue. Te wild relatives o crop plants an important source o genetic diversity or crop improve-ment are potentially threatened by climate change.45 Consideration should also be given to the losso species o potential use but which are not currently well known or the goods and services that theyprovide. Such species may be well known to local people, but unknown to science. For example, a plant

[called shungu panga] that grows close to wetlands is used by indigenous communities in the Amazonor multiple cure purposes and is disappearing when wetlands are aected by climate change.46

29. Changes and shis in the distribution o marine biodiversity resulting rom climate changewill have serious implications or sheries. Te livelihoods o coastal communities are threatenedby the projected impacts o climate change on coral rees and other commercially important ma-rine and reshwater species. Fisheries may improve in the short term in boreal regions but they maydecline elsewhere with projected local extinctions o some sh species important or aquacultureproduction. As a result o climate change and in the absence o stringent mitigation, up to 88% othe coral rees in South-East Asia may be lost over the next 30 years.47 In addition, ocean acidica-tion may cause pH to decrease by 0.3-0.4 pH units by 2100 48 causing severe die-os in shellsh and


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ree-building corals,49 aecting shery production and ecotourism, and with potentially wide rangingecological impacts.50

30. Biodiversity loss and ecosystem service degradation resulting rom climate change has a disproportionate impact on the poor and may increase human conict. Many areas o richest biodi-

versity and high demand or ecosystem services are in developing countries where billions o peopledirectly rely on them to meet their basic needs. Small island developing States and least developedcountries are particularly vulnerable to biodiversity-related impacts o changes such as projected tem-perature and sea-level rise (e.g. impacts on coral rees), ocean current oscillation changes (e.g. impactson sheries) and extreme weather events.

31. Indigenous people will be disproportionately impacted by climate change because their livelihoods and cultural ways o lie are being undermined by changes to local ecosystems. Climatechange is likely to aect the knowledge, innovations and practices o indigenous people and local com-

munities and associated biodiversity-based livelihoods. However, it is difcult to give a precise projec-tion o the scale o these impacts, as these will vary across dierent areas and dierent environments.For example, indigenous people and local communities in the Arctic depend heavily on cold-adaptedecosystems. While the number o species and net primary productivity may increase in the Arctic,these changes may cause conicts between traditional livelihoods and agriculture and orestry. In theAmazon, changes to the water cycle may decrease access to native species and spread certain invasivesh species in rivers and lakes. Furthermore, climate change is having signicant impacts on traditionalknowledge, innovations and practices among dryland pastoral communities.

32. Shis in phenology and geographic ranges o species could impact the cultural and religiouslives o some indigenous peoples. Many indigenous people use wildlie as integral parts o their cul-

tural and religious ceremonies. For example, birds are strongly integrated into Pueblo Indian communi-ties where birds are viewed as messengers to the gods and a connection to the spirit realm. Among ZuniIndians, prayer sticks, using eathers rom 72 dierent species o birds, are used as oerings to the spiritrealm. Many ethnic groups in sub-Saharan Arica use animal skins and bird eathers to make dressesor cultural and religious ceremonies. For example, in Boran (Kenya) ceremonies, the selection o triballeaders involves rituals requiring ostrich eathers. Wildlie, including species which may be impacted byclimate change, plays similar roles in cultures elsewhere in the world.

33. On the global scale, ecosystems are currently acting as a carbon sink, sequestering the equivalent o roughly 30%51 o anthropogenic emissions annually on average, but i no action is taken on

mitigation, this sink will slowly convert to a carbon source. Te reason or this potential conversion

rom sink to source is linked to temperature rises due, or example, to increasing soil respiration, re-gional decreases in precipitation or increases in seasonality, thawing o permarost and deterioration opeatlands, and increasing wildre requency and distribution.52 Some studies suggest that this eedbackcould increase CO2 concentrations by 20 to 200 ppm, and hence increase temperatures by 0.1 to 1.5Cin 2100. Te level o global warming which would be required to trigger such a eedback is uncertain,but could lie in the range o an increase in global mean surace temperature o between 2-4C abovepre-industrial levels according to some models outlined in the IPCC AR4.53 Furthermore:

Local conversion o orests rom sinks to sources would be exacerbated by deorestation and degra-dation, which increases the vulnerability o orest to climate change by, inter alia, reducing microcli-matic buering and rainall generation. Some models predict that the Amazon orest is particularly

vulnerable to such processes54 55

but there is evidence that by limiting deorestation and degradation


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the Amazon would have sufcient resilience against climate change impacts into the twenty-secondcentury56. Currently, between 25-50% o rainall is recycled rom the Amazon orest, orming oneo the most important regional ecosystem services. Deorestation o 35-40% o the Amazon basin,

especially in eastern Amazonia, could shi the orest into a permanently drier climate, increasing therisk o re and carbon release.

Arctic ecosystems, boreal and tropical peatlands, could become strong sources o carbon emissions inthe absence o mitigation. Recent studies estimate that unmitigated climate change could lead to thaw-ing o Arctic permarost releasing at least 100Gt C by 2100, with at least 40Gt coming rom Siberia aloneby 2050. Such increases will not be oset by the projected advance o the boreal orest into the tundra. 57

Reduced rainall may change the equilibrium between vegetation, hydrology and soil in peatlands. Inareas where there will be insufcient precipitation peat ormation will reduce or stop.

34. Certain types o extreme climate events, which may be exacerbated by climate change, will bedamaging to biodiversity. Extreme temperature or precipitation events can have more signicant impacts

on species than gradual climatic changes. Extreme temperatures exceeding the physiological limits o spe-cies have caused mortality in Australian ying-ox species58 and other species. As another example, oodshave caused catastrophic, species-specic mortality in desert rodents resulting in rapid population andcommunity-level changes.59

1.3 TOOLS FOR IMPACT, RISKVIII AND VULNERABILITYIx ASSESSMENTS

Assessments o impacts o climate change on biodiversity and related risks and vulnerabilities

using currently available tools are dependent on the integration o data on the distribution

and ecological characteristics o species, with spatially eplicit climate data, and other physical

process data, or a range o climate change scenarios

35. Tere are dierent scales o exposure to riskranging rom gross exposure (e.g., to climate actors,listed in able 1 under exposure) to minor or more localized exposures (e.g., behavioural traits, listed underadaptive capacity). Te amount o genetic and behavioural plasticity (as components o adaptive capacity)o many species is unknown, and may to some degree be a unction o exposure to past climatic changesover evolutionary time. It is also important to understand the extent to which behavioural thermoregula-tion by animals can or cannot buer them rom climate change impacts.60 For example, one recent studyound that limb length in one species is temperature-dependent and thuswould indicate a certain adaptation potential to a range o climates61. Onepossible approach to estimating adaptive capacity would be to estimate ex-posure to past climate change over evolutionary time in conjunction with

dispersive capability. Research has shown that many species have shiedranges with past climates (showing that the rate o change did not exceeddispersal capability), while others have evolved in climates that have beenstable or millions o years. Tose species that have evolved insitu with astable climate can show high degrees o specialization and requently haveevolved obligatory mutualistic relationships with other species, such thatextinction o one species would lead to extinction o the partner. Suchactors should be included in risk assessments concerning the impacts oclimate change on biodiversity as outlined in box 1 on page 21 below.62

viii Risk can be dened as a unction o hazard and vulnerability (UNISDR 2004).

ix Vulnerability is dened by IPCC (2001) as the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse eects o

climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a unction o the character, magnitude, and rate o climatevariation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.

Coastal erosion, Costa Rica

Photo courtesy o Sonia Gautreau


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36. Te understanding o the characteristics that contribute to species risks o decline or extinction has improved. Species with restricted distributions and those that occur at low density are at par-ticular risk, as are those with limited dispersal ability. Areas o most concern are the Arctic and Antarc-

tic regions, alpine regions, tropical montane areas, centres o endemism where many species have verynarrow geographic and climatic ranges, low-lying regions, wetlands, coral rees and reshwater systemswhere species have limited dispersal opportunities. Vulnerability to climate change is also aected bythe degree and extent o other human pressures. Recent work suggests that or birds, amphibians andwarm-water corals as many as 35-70% o species have lie-history traits that make them vulnerable toclimate change.63 In the absence o strong mitigation in all sectors (ossil uel and land-use), some eco-systems, such as cloud orests and coral rees, may cease to unction in their current orm within a ewdecades.

37. Risk assessment is a valuable tool used to identiy the most vulnerable species and ecosystemsor prioritizing adaptation activities. Following the risk assessment, appropriate adaptation activities

can be identied to reduce the risks to the identied species and ecosystems. Te process o prioritiza-tion and choice o activities should also include consideration o the necessary unding and technolo-gies, capacity building or stakeholders, monitoring and evaluation, and dene time-bound, measurableoutcomes. Te risk assessment should involve two aspects: an assessment o the current and projectedadverse impacts o climatic change on biodiversity in general based on consideration o the kinds oimpacts expected to occur at a local, national or regional scale; and an assessment o the vulnerability oselected species and ecosystems to the projected climate change hazards.64 Examples o good practicesto address risks to biodiversity rom climate change are available in anex II.

BOx 1:Possible steps or assessing risk to biodiversity values rom climate change

1. Assess the potential climatic change hazard using available vulnerability and impacts assessment guidelines. Such assessments should also account or climatic variability and uncertainty, and make use o available

climate analysis tools such as Climate Wizard (http://www.climatewizard.org), Potsdam DIVA tool (http://www.pik

potsdam.de/diva); Climate change in Australia (http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au); a key resource is the

Compendium on Methods and Tools under the Nairobi Work Programme under the UNFCCC (http://unccc.int/

adaptation/nairobi_workprogramme/compendium_on_methods_tools/items/2674.php).

2. Conduct vulnerability assessments

a. Assess the vulnerability o all ecosystems in a locality or region. Vulnerability should be assessed in terms o

observed trends in critical ecosystem states, and relative to a baseline o other threatening processes. Ecosystem

vulnerability should be assessed on the basis o the potential or climate change to cause signifcant changes in

ecosystem states (e.g., coral bleaching, desertication) or to key ecosystem processes such as dominant disturbance

regimes (e.g., re, ooding, pest outbreaks, droughts); invasive species; net ecosystem/biological productivity; and

changes in ecosystem stocks such as surace and ground water ows, biomass, and nutrients; and other ecosystem

services.

b. Identiy a subset o species or assessment o their relative vulnerability. Species should be selected or as

sessments that have particular ecological, cultural or economic values. Prioritized species should include threatened

or endangered status, responsibility o a country or region or conservation o a species, economically important,

culturally important, dominant, ecological keystone or, sources o crop, stock and medicinal genetic diversity, or

those that are dependent on vulnerable ecosystems. (Note that this approach would seem to avour relatively well

understood species and/or ecological systems. Again, there is unlikely to be a single correct approach to assessing

risk to biodiversity in all its maniestations.)

c. Assess vulnerability o species on the basis o biological and ecological traits, and other actors, that deter

mine sensitivity, adaptive capacity and exposure to climate change. Such traits include habitat specifcity, lie his-

tory, interactions with other species, biogeography, mobility, intrinsic capacity or phenotypic or micro-evolutionary

changes, availability o habitat, and microhabitat buering. Species vulnerability should be assessed in the context

o a baseline vulnerability rom other threatening processes such as habitat loss, ragmentation and degradation;

invasive species; disease; pollution; over use o living resources; altered re and hydrology regimes.


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38. Tere are many techniques that have been used to analyse vulnerability(see table 1.1 on page 24below). Tese include models and expert systems. able 1.1 does not include the wide range o studiesand databases looking at observed changes over time (e.g., phenological networks). Observed changes

over time, or changes in response to climate variability potentially oer methods to assess the sensitivityo bioclimatic models. Tere have been a number o reviews examining how species ranges and timinghave changed in a manner consistent with the regional climate changes.

Table 1.1: Tools and methodologies used to estimate the components o vulnerability

Components ovulnerability Tools and methodologies

Exposure65 Projections o changes in physical parameters (including CO2 concentration; temperature,

precipitation, extreme events, climate variability, sea levels, ocean acidication, sea surace

temperature)

Sensitivity Species level

Bioclimatic models66

Demographic models67

Ecophysiological models68

Population viability models69; estimates o threatened status (e.g. Red List status),70

interactions and coextinction models (e.g. pollination, predatorprey, competition, host

parasite),71 dynamic vegetation models;

Speciesspecic energymass balance models72 lie history and species trait analysis73

Level o communities and ecosystems

Earth system models;74 projections o productivity;

Dynamic vegetation models (including plant unctional types)75; biogeochemical cycle models76;

Hydrological, soil and moisture balance, coastal ooding models77; estimates o ecosystem

health78; re models79; trophic relationships80; statetransition models

Adaptive

capacity

Genetic level

Selection experiments;81 experimental estimates o ecotypic variation o response82

Species level

Use o natural latitudinal or elevational gradients;83 estimates o resilience and nonclimatic

stresses;84 GIS: analysis o spatial habitat availability, PAs, corridors, barriers, topography;

Bioclimatic models;

Experimental manipulations o CO2, water, temperature etc.;85 translocation/transplant

experiments;86 responses to past or current climate variability;87 responses to past climates88

Assessments o current conservation status

Ecosystem level

Estimates o resilience and role o nonclimatic stresses;89 GIS: analysis o spatial habitat

availability, PAs, corridors, barriers, topography; statetransition models; responses to past

climates

Assessments o current conservation status

39. While there are many risk assessment tools available there are also a number o needs or data gaps:

Spatially explicit biodiversity data Freely available biodiversity datasets are growing in number and scope,but there is a great need both or increased access to such data, digitization o existing datasets, and the col-

lection o new data in undersampled regions, especially in biodiversity rich areas.


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Climate data Readily available downscaled probabilistic projections at appropriate spatial scales,including projections o extreme events, are required or developing regional and local risk assess-ments and adaptation options.

Te predictive ability o bioclimatic models requires quantication and improvement Te projec-tions o bioclimatic models should be ormally tested against observed species range shis.90 Ideally,systems need to be developed that link the bioclimatic modelling approach dynamically with otherphysical and anthropogenic drivers, such as land-use models, re models, hydrological models,

vegetation change models, etc., preerably with the ability to quantiy eedbacks. Currently, mostbioclimatic models ocus on single species, or undierentiated groups o species (e.g., biomes, plantunctional types). Models need to be developed that take account o interactions between species,and between trophic levels.

Coupled human-natural systems models Models linking climate change and ecosystems can alsobe coupled to models o human behaviour and decision-making, thus representing key interactionsbetween social and ecological systems.91 Tis understanding is critical or a more comprehensive

risk assessment. Te establishment o multi-purpose monitoring programs that include the impacts o climate change

on biodiversity would be benecial in maximizing the use o limited resources -A monitoring pro-gramme that tracks and reports biodiversity status, within a ramework that includes threat statusmonitoring and the recording the eectiveness o adaptation measures is also recommended.

Studies on multiple pressures in various ecosystems are needed to better dene causal

relationships

40. Climate change impact assessments should optimally be integrated with assessments o otherstresses on ecosystems such as current and uture landuse change, and changes in disturbance re

gimes where applicable. Te direct eects o land use and land-use change may exceed climate changeeects on biodiversity in the short to medium term. Modelling approaches that simulate changes in eco-system structure and processes may be more mechanistically robust in simulating, or example distur-bance regimes such as re, and should be used where possible to provide alternative or complementaryinsights into species and ecosystem vulnerability.

41. Readily available, easy to use, tools or assessing the impacts o multiple drivers are needed.Tere are many dierent tools available to project the potential impacts o climate change on biodiver-sity. However, these tools are hampered in many areas and or many species by the lack o availabilityo distribution data. Additionally, these eorts are oen undertaken in isolation rom other eorts andoen only look at one, or a ew, climate change scenarios or only one or a ew dierent general circula-

tion models (GCMs) aer downscaling. Eorts are now underway to link emission scenarios, multipleGCMs, and multiple species bioclimatic tools to better enable the research community to not onlylook at impacts using a much broader range o emission scenarios using more GCMs, but to do so in aprobabilistic ashion. Tis will provide better estimates o uncertainty and make it easier or researchersto reanalyze their results once new emission scenarios or new climate change models become avail-able. Tese same modelling tools are also being used to link the same climate and emissions data withhydrological and sea-level rise models and it is possible that, in the near uture, all could be examinedsimultaneously.

42. Te experimental approach can be used to establish causality and dene both the nature andmagnitude o cause and eect relationships. Tis makes this approach very valuable despite its limita-

tions arising mainly rom the limited size o experimental plots. Experiments have already been used


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to assess the eects o increased temperature, altered precipitation regime and increased CO2 leveland land use on population biology, species composition, phenology and biogeochemistry in various,mostly low-stature ecosystems. More studies are needed on the combined eects o multiple pressures

including temperature, precipitation, CO2, land-use, invasive species and nitrogen deposition. Finally,broader geographic coverage is necessary to draw globally relevant conclusions, as much o this workhas been conducted in temperate, northern Hemisphere ecosystems and tropical orest systems.

1.4 CONFIDENCE LEVELS AND UNCERTAINTY

There is considerable condence that climate models provide credible quantitative estimates

o projected climate change, particularly at continental scales and above. However, at ner

spatial scales projections have a high level o uncertainty, particularly outside Polar Regions,

and in relation to projections o rainall change 92.

43. Condence in climate change models comes rom the oundation o the models in acceptedphysical principles, and rom their ability to reproduce observed eatures o current climate and

past climate changes. Climate models quantiy and bound the errors and identiy processes wherecondence limits are widest and urther research is needed. Condence in model estimates is higher orsome climate variables (e.g., temperature) than or others (e.g., precipitation). Tere are, however, somelimitations in the models. Signicant uncertainties are, or example, associated with the representationo clouds leading to uncertainties in the magnitude and timing, as well as regional details, o predictedclimate change.

44. Despite uncertainties, models are unanimous in their prediction o substantial warming under greenhousegas increases. Tis warming is o a magnitude consistent with independent estimates

derived rom other sources, such as rom obs

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Connecting Biodiversity and Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation