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Computers and Business David L. Olson James & H.K. Stuart Professor and Chancellors Chair University of Nebraska-Lincoln

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Computers and Business David L. Olson James & H.K. Stuart Professor and Chancellors Chair University of Nebraska-Lincoln Slide 2 Moores Law Intel: Noted that the number of transistors possible on integrated circuits doubled every so often 2 years? 18 months? Seems to apply to about everything computertechnology related Computing speed Storage capacity Transmission capability Slide 3 Computer progress (see Moores Law) 1988 Intel 386D processor ran at 8.5 MIPS First IBM PCs, Microsoft Windows 1992 Intel 486DX ran at about 54 MIPS PCs supported Windows 3.1 1999 Intel Pentium II over 1,300 MIPS 2008 Intel Core 2 Extreme 59,000 MIPS Slide 4 Linear vs. Exponential Slide 5 Ray Kurzweil The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology NY: Penguin Books, 2005 Singularity future period when pace of technological change will be so strong that human life will be irreversibly transformed When exponential crosses linear Slide 6 Epochs Epoch one: Physics and chemistry information in atomic structures Epoch two: Biology information in DNA (DNA evolves) Epoch three: Brains information in neural patterns (brains evolve) Epoch four: Technology information in hardware and software designs (technology evolves) Epoch five: Merger of technology and human intelligence integration in exponentially expanding base Epoch six: The universe wakes up patterns of energy & matter saturated with intelligent processes & knowledge (vastly expanded human intelligence spreads through the universe) Slide 7 A Theory of Technology Evolution: The Law of Accelerating Returns The nature of order: paradigm shifts are major changes in methods and intellectual processes to accomplish tasks Each paradigm shift follows S curve Slow growth, rapid growth, leveling off Under accelerating returns, paradigm shifts occur faster 15 different lists with a lot of overlap All show decreasing gaps in time Slide 8 Achieving the Computational Capacity of the Human Brain Weve had 5 paradigms of computing: electromechanical calculators relay-based computing vacuum tubes discrete transistors integrated circuits Singularity representing profound & disruptive transformation in human capability in 2045 nonbiological intelligence created will be 1 billion times more powerful than all human intelligence today Slide 9 Achieving the Software of Human Intelligence: How to Reverse Engineer the Human Brain BRAIN Very slow Massively parallel Rewires itself Details random Emergent Imperfect Evolution Patterns important COMPUTERS Fast (electricity) Can be parallel Humans wire Deterministic Programmed Slide 10 Genetics, Nanotechnology, Robotics Designer baby boomers Can we really live forever? Somatic gene therapy enabling us to change genes by infecting them with new DNA, creating new genes Kurzweil speaks badly of manipulating human life but takes 250 pills per day Solving world hunger we would not be creating the entire animal but rather directly producing the desired animal parts or flesh. Slide 11 Nanobots - 2004 used for mission-critical software systems control nuclear-power plants 911 ICU land airplanes guide missiles Slide 12 Artificial Intelligence Expert systems, Bayesian nets, Markov models, neural nets, genetic algorithms, recursive search Applications military & intelligence, space exploration, medicine, science & math, business finance & manufacturing, speech & language, entertainment & sports Slide 13 Singularity our destiny We can live forever evidently freezing an existing population that will never die nor procreate We are becoming Cyborgs Transfer to nonbiological experience Change Warfare Work Slide 14 Intertwined Promise & Peril Environmentalists world that has enough wealth and enough technological capability should not pursue more The many benefits of progress can always be turned to evil purposes. The precautionary principle: If the consequences of an action are unknown but judged by some scientists to have even a small risk of being profoundly negative, its better to not carry out the action than risk negative consequences. Golden rice genetically modified to contain high levels of beta-carotene precursor to vitamin A, needed to stop African children from going blind. Greenpeace strongly opposes Golden rice as genetically modified. Slide 15 Criticisms Malthusian exponential trends dont last forever Computer limits not very limiting Software limitations Computer instability, slow responsiveness Intelligent algorithms are on the way Analog processing Computers use digital medium Idea is to combine digital & analog Slide 16 Criticisms Ontology Can a computer be conscious? What difference human constructs Rich-poor divide Technology makes rich richer History of technology shows evolution from inefficient/expensive to efficient/cheap (cell-phone) Holism Biological is holistic, computers deterministic & modular With AI can use both Slide 17 In Conclusion We are building machines with Powers far greater than the sum of their parts By combining self-organizing design principles of the natural world With accelerating powers of human-initiated technology The Singularity will occur about 2040 Slide 18 Emile Zola (1901) Work The machines did everything.What an elevating sight: an army of obedient mechanical laborers with never-tiring staminathat were now the workers friends, instead of their competitors.They liberated instead of exploiting him. While he rested, they did his work. Arent machines (computers) wonderful? Slide 19 Martin Ford (2009) Create Space Independent Publishing Platform The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future What if technology progresses to the point where a substantial fraction of the jobs now performed by people are instead performed autonomously by machines or computers? People who rely for jobs for income the same as those who buy the products produced Slide 20 Productivity Paradox Economy hasnt had expected productivity gains from computers Greenspan no noticeable benefit Brynjolffson of course they benefit Slide 21 Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee 2011 Digital Frontier Press Race Against The Machine: How the Digital Revolution is Accelerating Innovation, Driving Productivity, and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy Computer progress advancing exponentially AFFECT ON Jobs Skills Wages The Economy Slide 22 US Great economic changes Wages too high Outsourcing Computer programming (service) to India Manufacturing to China Technology Robotics no health benefits, no vacations, no complaints Computers ERP systems replacing multiple legacy systems Layoff most human IT people Business Analytics BIG DATA Slide 23 World Wide Web Innovations eBay & Amazon Marketplace Over 600,000 earn living by new products for worldwide market Apples App Store, Googles Android Marketplace Easy to implement mobile applications, distribute them Threadless Customers create & sell t-shirt designs Heartland Robotics Robots-in-a-box Small businesses can access inexpensively Slide 24 Examples of Innovation Crowdsourcing Amazon Cloud Innocentive Commercialized research & development Slide 25 Amazon collaborative systems Crowdsourcing: Mechanical Turk Cloud: EC2 Slide 26 Many unprofitable years in the 1990s Now highly successful USER PARTICIPATION Reader reviews, ratings Personalized suggestion system Once toyed with personalized pricing CLOUD Can rent storage, software Slide 27 Mechanical Turk 200,000 participants Use free time to work for customers Amazon the broker Started in 2006 EXAMPLE Powerset search site wanted feedback Through Mechanical Turk, got 100 people to rate results for 2 hours, at $2/hour Powerset then started Dolores Labs to assess accuracy and speed of Mechanical Turk participants. Cost $2,000, estimated $30,000 for full-time staffers Typical worker Guitar teacher supplements income by 15 hours of work on Mechanical Turk at $3/hour Slide 28 Mechanical Turk Hits TaskRequestorExpiration date RewardTime allotted Hits available Identify Arabic dialect in textAn individual 31 Dec 2010 $0.05 per phrase 15 minutes 14196 PIO verification for US citiesNutella4217 Dec 2010 $0.08 per city 30 minutes 1617 Find political biasUniversity9 Dec 2010$0.0560 minutes 1097 Translate English to UrduAn individual 23 Dec 2010 $0.7024 hours1002 Find URL for college club directory techlist7 Dec 2010$0.0515 minutes 1001 Judge quality of search results Dolores Labs 13 Dec 2010 $0.0860 minutes 996 Find product information for electronics Dolores Labs 13 Dec 2010 $0.1260 minutes 995 Search for termsDolores Labs 13 Dec 2010 $0.5560 minutes 962 Choose best search resultDolores Labs 13 Dec 2010 $0.1060 minutes 951 Slide 29 Mechanical Turk Examples Select correct spelling for given search terms Evaluate website suitability for a general audience Rate search results for given key words Evaluate product similarity Select appropriate category for given products Categorize an articles tone Translate from one language to another Slide 30 Informed Consent Form HeadingContent Purpose of research study: To collect human annotations to improve automatic translation of Arabic into other languages. Benefits:Can benefit society by improving how computer process human languages. Risks:None Voluntary participation: You can discontinue at any time without penalty by clicking on Return Hit We may end your participation if: You dont demonstrate adequate knowledge of the language, or are not following instructions, or if your answers significantly deviate from known translations. Confidentiality:The only information about you retained will be a WorkerID serial number and your IP address. Questions/concerns:You may e-mail questions to the principal investigator. How may contact Johns Hopkins University Institutional Review Board

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