Commodity MOSL

8/10/2019 Commodity MOSL

1/34

The melting commodities!

India Strategy

Thematic | September 2014

Sector: Commodity

Research Team ([email protected])


2/34

India Strategy

15 September 2014 2

The melting commodities!

Page No.

Summary ................................................................................................................ 3-4

Story in charts ................................................................................................... 5-7

Global slowdown and transatlantic policy shifts weighs on commodities ...... 8-11

Falling commodities: Advantage India............................................................. 12-15

OIL & GAS ........................................................................................................... 16-23

AUTO ................................................................................................................... 24-26

METALS ............................................................................................................... 27-31

FINANCIAL ..................................................................................................... 32-33

Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.


3/34

15 S 2014 3

I S

T E

G

G . IMF

2014 2015

. T C I,

. O ,

US

E, J C. T

USD

.

F I ,

. I , OMC, & , A

F. A, C, C I

RM .

F &

:

1 S RBI ? R P 13

2 I C ? R P 17

3 C O S ? R P 14

4

C 7040 3070 ONGC? R 205 C OMC ? R P 21

6 W ? R P 24

7 A ? R P 27

8 W I F? R

P 32

I

WPI

WPI . H,

CPI . A

WPI 5%

5.8% FY15. S CPI 20 7.5%.

T FY16 5.5% 3.5% WPI

6.5% 6% CPI.

B . A

( USD510 )

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FY16 3.4% 3.6% . T

CAD/GDP 1.7% / 1.8% FY15 FY16

1.7% / 2% .

O

26

S: IMF, MOSL

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9

118.

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100

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P US$/BL


4/34

15 S 2014 4

I S

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C ,

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I

70% GDP 1.6%

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.

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I

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.

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O

0.8% GDP

S: MOSL

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,

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, USD82/ C

S: C, MOSL

0.0

0.3

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1.2

0400800

1,2001,600

FY04

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FY16E

U (INR)O (INR)O ( % GDP)

0

25

50

75

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

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1QFY15

J'14

A'14

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INR24/L

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INR12/

L

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96

82

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90

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130

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5/34

15 S 2014

S

IMF

US P D

S

O

S

0.30.4

0

1.1

0.2

0.6

1.1

W

AE

E

US

EM&D

B

R

IMF 2014

84.6

79.278

80

82

84

86

S12

N12

J13

M13

M13

J13

S13

N13

D I

96.79

118.11

92

100

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116

124

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014

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26

: B, MOSL

T

0

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C

SA

3.4

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AE

E

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EM&

2015

84.3

M14

M14

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75

85

95

105

115

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115

97.2

M14

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$/BL

3354

3000

3200

3400

3600

3800

4000

J12

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R I

5

I S

S: IMF, MOSL

S: B, MOSL

S: B, MOSL

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1.30.2

5.4

7.4

1.7

D

B

R

I

C

SA

96.7

105.3 106.9

S13

N13

J14

M14

M14

J14

S14

USD/JPY

3847 3752

3390

A13

J13

O13

J14

A14

J14

C I


6/34

15 S 2014

C PI

S: B

I 1.4% GDP

S

D : D

INR0.08/ (I

S: PPA

O P (USD/): ONGC

.

S: PPA

5.8

7.7

5.0

7.

5.5

3.5

WPI I CPI

FY15 FY15 FY16

22.3 %

GDP

0

100

200

300

400

500

FY15E ( ) FY15 (

NPOL C

T USD

20.4

1.5

14.9 13.917.1

3.7

(5)

0

5

10

15

20

25

1QFY07

1QFY07

1QFY08

1QFY09

1QFY10

1QFY11

1QFY12

N11

J12

M1

M12

J12

S12

N12

J13

M13

M13

3842 44

53 48

56

54

5548

0

25

50

75

100

125

FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY1

G U D

, G, MOSL

CPI ,

: G, MOSL

E

NR/)

, MPNG, IOC, MOSL

>50% (INR)

, MPNG, IOC, MOSL

HPCL: EPS

.5

6.56.0

FY16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

J13

M13

M13

J13

S13

N13

474

20.9 %

GDP

)

&

7.8

5.9

7.2

T I

A%

GDP

FY15E (

14.5

0.1

J13

S13

N13

J14

M1

M14

J14

S14

201400

494

773

1,033

46

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY1

P D

41

6166 68

3 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

N

34.7

7.0

1

A. FY14

EPS

I

@IN

HPCL EPS (INR)

6

I S

PI

S: G, MOSL

S: G, MOSL

,

S: G, MOSL

S: MOSL, C

J14

M14

M14

J14

S14

N14

J15

M15

203

125

226

BI' J15 8%

CPI PI

1.9

5.9

1.3

C A/

) FY15 ( )

1

780

1,381

1,6101,399

948750 689

0 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

K LPG T

54.9

5.5

0.8

M

0.5/

M

@15%

N

EPS


7/34

15 S 2014 7

I S

F , 11% CAGR

F11, PV

S: C, MOSL

R MSIL

S: C, MOSL

I (62% ) ,

US$82/ C;

S: B, MOSL

C US$110112/ A

US$108/

S: B, MOSL

10

0

10

20

30

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

1QFY15

J'14

A'14

S'14

FY16???

FY17???

P D

33 34 35 36

48

5853 50

13 15 19 18

24

3732 32

FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 1QFY15

D ( % ) I

134

117

96

82

70

90

110

130

150

S

13

O13

N

13

D

13

J14

F

14

M

14

A14

M

14

J14

J14

A

14

S

14

CIF FOB

153

113 112

108100

110

120

130

140

150

160

S

13

O13

N

13

D

13

J14

F

14

M

14

A14

M

14

J14

J14

A

14

S

14

S ( A) US$/


8/34

15 S 2014 8

I S

G G

1.

R :T IMF

. E, ,

G, ,

ECB. M

C . H,

, C I.

IMF 2014

S: IMF, MOSL

T , EM

S: IMF, MOSL

2. T : M US,

,

. US FED USD25 USD85 . T

. H,

E J

0.30.4

0

1.1

0.2

0.6

1.1

0

0.2

0.6

W

AE

E

US

EM&D

B

R

I

C

SA

IMF 2014

3.4

1.8

1.1

1.7

4.6

1.3

0.2

5.4

7.4

1.7

W

AE

E

US

EM&

D

B

R

I

C

SA

2015


9/34

15 S 2014 9

I S

. W

C , .

T

A . E, USD

.

O US

S: C B, MOSL

C

S: C B, MOSL

D US F D ECB

30J14 S QE USD25 (USD10 MBS + USD15

T)

4S14 P 10


T)

7A14 P

30A14 S QE USD45 (USD20 MBS + USD25

T)

3J14 D

19M14 S QE USD55 (USD25 MBS + USD30

T)

17J14 E US

31 J 2014


T)

5J14 I

D B J D P' B C

4S14 T

YEN 6070

L K 6% J12

25

8A14 T

YEN 6070

20J14 S

15J14 T

YEN 6070

13J14 T

YEN 6070

21M14 T

YEN 6070

J , US FED "B

C

,

,

C

."

M D, ECB "T

, SME,

, US."

H K, BJ "I

,

2% ."

, PBOC "PBOC

'

."


10/34

15 S 2014 10

I S

US P D

S: B, MOSL

I J

S: B, MOSL

3. C : T

US . T

,

. A ,

. E

J

11 .

O 26

S: B, MOSL

G 4%

S: B, MOSL

I

S: B, MOSL

C

S: B, MOSL

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79.2

84.3

78

80

82

84

86

S12

N12

J13

M13

M13

J13

S13

N13

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M14

M14

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S14

D I

96.7

105.3 107.1

75

85

95

105

115

S12

N12

J13

M13

M13

J13

S13

N13

J14

M14

M14

J14

S14

USD/JPY

96.79

118.11115

97.292

100

108

116

124

S12

D12

M13

J13

S13

D13

M14

J14

S14

B C O P US$/BL

1900

12501100

1350

1600

1850

2100

S11

D11

M12

J12

S12

D12

M13

J13

S13

D13

M14

J14

S14

G ($/OZ)

188

87

159

8250

90

130

170

210

M09

J09

S09

D09

M10

J10

S10

D10

M11

J11

S11

D11

M12

J12

S12

D12

M13

J13

S13

D13

M14

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I O C (USD/MT)

67

130

6850

75

100

125

150

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M10

J10

S10

D10

M11

J11

S11

D11

M12

J12

S12

D12

M13

J13

S13

D13

M14

J14

S14

C R B (USD/MT)


11/34

15 S 2014 11

I S

C HR S12

S: B, MOSL

P

S: B, MOSL

R 30%

S: B, MOSL

A

S: R, MOSL

R

S: B, MOSL

A ,

S: B, MOSL

761

513 524

450

520

590

660

730

800

M09

J09

S09

D09

M10

J10

S10

D10

M11

J11

S11

D11

M12

J12

S12

D12

M13

J13

S13

D13

M14

J14

S14

C HR S (USD/MT)

3927

2027

2038

1700

2300

2900

3500

4100

M09

J09

S09

D09

M10

J10

S10

D10

M11

J11

S11

D11

M12

J12

S12

D12

M13

J13

S13

D13

M14

J14

S14

P O M R P MT

52

198

5445

90

135

180

225

M09

J09

S09

D09

M10

J10

S10

D10

M11

J11

S11

D11

M12

J12

S12

D12

M13

J13

S13

D13

M14

J14

S14

T R (THB/GRAM)

3,300

3,400

3,500

3,600

3,700

3,800

J14

J14

F14

M14

M14

A14

M14

M14

J14

J14

J14

A14

R A

200

400

600

800

1000

J07

M07

O07

F08

J08

O08

F09

J09

O09

F10

J10

O10

F11

J11

O11

F12

J12

O12

F13

J13

O13

F14

J14

R

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

J13

M

M

J13

S

N

J14

M

M

J14

W


12/34

15 September 2014 12

India Strategy

Falling commodities: Advantage India

Direct benefit for inflation, fiscal and external account

1. WPI is crashing:The most direct beneficiary of the global commodity softening

are the transportation and manufacturing sector where input costs comes downproportionately. As a result, WPI manufacturing, WPI core and indeed overall

WPI is expected to soften widely. As per our calculations around 66% of the WPI

basket is influenced by international price trend. Thus WPI may soften by 80-

200 bp during FY15 and FY16 respectively, on the back of easing commodities

2. CPI is falling too: While part of the CPI fuel sector would benefit, a large part of

the CPI basket is comprised of food (50%) and services (26%) that are largely

functions of domestic price pressures. We estimate around 17% of the product

basket of CPI being affected by international commodity prices, yielding a

benefit ranging between 20-50bp during FY15 to FY16.

WPI and CPI has very different commodity basket with WPI having more globally linked

commodities

Inflation indicator WeightInflation indicator Weight

WPI 100.0CPI 100.0

Primary articles 20.1 Food, beverages & tobacco 49.7

Food articles 14.3 Cereals and products 14.6

Non-food articles 4.3 Pulses and products 2.7

Minerals 1.5 Oils and fats 3.9

Fuel & power 14.9 Egg, fish and meat 2.9

Coal 2.1 Milk and products 7.7

Mineral oils 9.4 Condiments and spices 1.7

Electricity 3.5 Vegetables 5.4

Manufactured products 65.0 Fruits 1.9

Food products 10.0 Sugar etc. 1.9

Beverages, tobacco & tobacco products 1.8 Non-alcoholic beverages 2.0

Textiles 7.3 Prepared meals etc. 2.8

Wood & wood products 0.6 Pan, tobacco and intoxicants 2.1

Paper & paper products 2.0 Fuel & light 9.5

Leather & leather products 0.8 Clothing, bedding & footwear 4.7

Rubber & plastic products 3.0 Housing 9.8

Chemicals & chemical products 12.0 Miscellaneous 26.3

Non-metallic mineral products 2.6 Medical care 5.7

Basic metals, alloys & metal products 10.8 Education, stationery etc. 3.4

Machinery & machine tools 8.9 Recreation and amusement 1.4

Transport, equipment & parts 5.2Transport and communication 7.6

Personal care and effects 2.9

Household requisites 4.3

Others 1.1

Note: Shaded commodities are likely to benefit more from the global commodities fall.

Source: Rogers, MOSL


13/34

15 S 2014

I , CPI PI

8.6%

S

3.

G

4. S

S

T

7.2

3.34

1

2

5

8

11

FY84

FY86

FY88

FY90

FY92

FY94

FY96

FY98

FY00

FY02

G CPI

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

: G, MOSL

T CPI PI

CPI PI : T WPI CPI

8.6% FY10. I

. T

.

RBI

(., CPI) . A

CPI 3%

. T

10 G

RBI . T

.

8.6

FY06

FY08

FY10

FY12

FY14

WPI

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

J13

M13

M13

J13

S13

N13

474

J12

M12

M12

J12

S12

N12

J13

M13

M13

J13

CPI WPI

CPI: 9.5%

13

I S

S: G, MOSL

,

?: T

CPI

WPI. T

.

S: CSO, MOSL

J14

M14

M14

J14

S14

N14

J15

M15

203

125

226

RBI' J15

8%

CPI PI

N13

J14

M14

M14

J14

A PI: 6.6%


14/34

15 S 2014 14

I S

T

S: G, MOSL

E 10 G

S: G, MOSL

5. O : T

2000. A

2% GDP USD105/

, . T . H,

. A

, USD10 ,

10 GDP .

O 0.8% GDP

S: CSO, MOSL

6. T CAD 0.3% GDP: T

1.4% GDP .

W

, 0.3% GDP. T

FY15 CAD/GDP 1.6%

. T

RBI .

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

2A

16A

30A

14M

28M

11J

25J

9J

23J

6A

20A

3S

AAA 1 CP 1

8.0

8.2

8.48.6

8.8

9.0

9.2

2A

16A

30A

14M

28M

11J

25J

9J

23J

6A

20A

3S

10Y GS

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15E

FY16E

FY17E

U (INR) O (INR) O ( % GDP)


15/34

15 S 2014 15

I S

I 1.4% GDP

S: G, MOSL

E

S: G, MOSL

22.3 %

GDP20.9 %

GDP

0

100

200

300

400

500

FY15E ( ) FY15 ( )

NPOL C &

T

USD

7.8

5.9

1.9

7.5

5.9

1.6

T I C A/

A%

GDP

FY15E ( ) FY15 ( )


16/34

15 S 2014 16

I S

O & G / A

I. THE BEGINNIG OF A NE ERA

I ?

1. C : D

B

USD110/ ,

USD20/ USD130/. H,

USD100/ .

U , (B , USD/)

*M S: B, MOSL

2.

US H,

. H,

L, S I

. T

US 84%

3.2/. O

5 CAGR 2013

.

A P C (/): US/C OPEC

S: OPEC, IEA, EIA, BP S , MOSL

90

100

110

120

130

M11 S11 M12 S12 M13 S13 M14 S14

B (USD/)

3.93.2

0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2

(0.3) (0.3) (0.4) (0.4) (0.6) (0.6) (0.7) (0.8) (0.8)

W

US

SA

R

C

I

UAE

OPEC()

Q

C

C

K

K.

B

N

M

S

S

A

V

N

UK

L

I

O P C

2013 2008 (/)

OIL & GAS

P B

J 2014

S: C, MOSL

P

B

2 A 2014

S: C, MOSL


17/34

15 S 2014 17

I S

US (/)

S: EIA, B, MOSL

3. I ?A ,

. T

. R S A (M )

. C N A

. R C

. U

IEA, OPEC EIA.

. I

.

A OPEC

. H,

,

I.

IEA EIA 2014

S: IEA, EIA, OPEC, MOSL

B I U 50%

1.

G , : R (D, G, K LPG)

I ,

. W

8.364

6.409

5.108

8.5

0

3

6

9

J87 J90 J93 J96 J99 J02 J05 J08 J11 J14

1.

2

1.

3

1.

4

1.

4

1.

3

1.

3

1.

2

1.

0

1.

4

1.

3

1.4

1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2

1.3

1.2

1.2

1.2 1

.31.3

1.3

1.0

1.5

1.3

J14 F14 M14 A14 M14 J14 J14 A14 J14 A14

2013A 2014E 2015E

2014 IEA OPEC EIA

S A 2012

O

$100 ,

S A 2014S

. OPEC

.


18/34

15 S 2014 18

I S

I J 2013

(1) LPG

12 , (2)

INR0.5/ (3) .

2.

D , !!: A 20

INR0.08/ ..

. G J 2010

,

.

D : D

INR0.08/ (INR/)

S: PPAC, MPNG, IOC, MOSL

3.

LPG / ? PDS I. H,

G LPG . T

,

LPG .

4. U 50%: W

50% INR750 FY16. A

/LPG 70%.

, >50% (INR)

S: PPAC, MPNG, MOSL

20.4

1.5

14.9 13.9

17.1

3.7

14.5

0.1

(5)

0

5

10

15

20

25

1QFY07

1QFY07

1QFY08

1QFY09

1QFY10

1QFY11

1QFY12

N11

J12

M12

M12

J12

S12

N12

J13

M13

M13

J13

S13

N13

J14

M14

M14

J14

S14

201400

494

773

1,033

461

780

1,381

1,6101,399

948750 689

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

P D K LPG T


19/34

15 S 2014 19

I S

P P 2010, (INR/)

S: MPNG, PPAC, MOSL

5. I : S I GDP

% .

G % GDP

S: MPNG, GI, PPAC, MOSL

G %

S: MPNG, GI, PPAC, MOSL

W ,

.

P , D

..

S: PPAC, IOC, MOSL

20

40

60

80

S09 S10 S11 S12 S13 S14

P ( INR/) D ( INR/)

P

D

0.6

1.1 1.2

1.5

1.8

0.7

1.0

1.5 1.6

1.2

0.8

0.6 0.5

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15E

FY16E

FY17E

19.8

26.727.6

34.6 35.5

17.4

24.9

30.630.2

24.4

15.712.4 11.1

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15E

FY16E

FY17E

5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

J05 J07 J08 J10 J11 J13 J14

P 3M YY C (%) D 3M YY C (%)


20/34

15 S 2014 20

I S

G : C 7040 3070?

1. H ONGC : U

.

W ONGC USD107/ FY14,

USD41/ USD66/.

2. C 7040 3070?O

7040 ( ) 3070 ..

USD70/ 40/

USD40/ USD70/.

3. ONGC 20% CAGR:A B USD100/

INR60/USD, INR724 FY16, 48%

FY14 INR1,399. U FY14

48% 50% FY15/FY16/FY17 ONGC

USD61/66/68/ ( @USD100/)

EPS CAGR 20%.

. F USD10/ ONGC

INR6/.

. F USD1/ ONGC

INR3/.

O P (USD/): ONGC .

S: C, MOSL

ONGC C. EPS (INR): ... (INR)

*F 50% FY15/16/FY17 USD5.3/6.3/ FY16/FY17

S: C, MOSL

3842 44

53 48

56

54

5548

41

61 6668

0

25

50

75

100

125


G U D N

16.8 18.020.8

23.2 23.1 22.7 24.5

30.4 28.331.0

41.9

48.852.5



21/34

15 S 2014 21

I S

E ONGC

INR612 (/ INR485); INR865

*P S: MOSL

L OMC: C ?1. OMC : OMC

(RE 2030% HPCL IOCL )

()

()

. T OMC 22% CAGR 10

CAGR 27%.

HPCL 20

S: C, MOSL

S: C, MOSL

A PAT (INR) RE

S: C, MOSL

42.3 1.8 2.55.2 1.7

22.275.7

485 505534 593 612

865865

BEPS

K

(INR0.5

/

)

LPG

(INR10/

)

S

(@50%)

GP

(@USD7/

)

N

N

EPS

ONGC

9% 14% 20% 33% 38% 94%

15 20

66

104

165

221 211

249

296323 314

FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0


I % (%)

10

20

30

40

50

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14

PAT RHS S

0

7

14

21

28


RE(%)


22/34

15 S 2014 22

I S

2. D :OMC

% 0.1% FY04 1.2%

. D 12

OMC

. W OMC 1525%,

816% EPS , HPCL 16%, BPCL 9%

IOCL 8%.

3. OMC : I

(FY0407), 5%

10% . H, ,

, , OMC

, ,

.F,

.

4. M OMC : T

OMC G 2006

810%, OMC 4% .

T . P

, OMC

.

G I

INR1.4/ . HPCL

( / 2),

EPS INR15.5/ INR0.5/

, BPCL IOCL.

G I (INR/)

S: PPAC, IMF, S, I, A , MOSL

1.4

5.4

4.5

2.83.5 3.4

7.3

I US C T S

A

A UK


23/34

15 S 2014 23

I S

F (INR/)

S: C, MOSL

HPCL: EPS BPCL: EPS

IOCL: EPS

S: C, MOSL

HPCL INR1/

INR B F04 F05 F06 F07 F08 F09 F13 F14 F15 F16 F17 F18

M () 19.5 20.1 19.4 21.7 24.5 25.4 30.3 31.0 31.9 32.8 33.7 34.5

GRM (USD/) 4.5 5.2 2.3 3.6 5.6 5.2 2.1 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.5

N S 515 599 709 890 1,047 1,253 2,065 2,231 2,168 2,179 2,143 2,160

EBITDA 32 21 8 24 16 29 39 52 43 52 57 66

D 6 7 7 7 9 10 19 22 24 26 28 30

I 1 1 2 4 8 21 18 15 7 6 6 5

O I 4 3 3 7 12 9 12 11 10 10 11 12

PBT 29 16 3 20 12 7 15 26 22 29 34 43

T 11 4 (1) 4 (0) 1 6 9 7 10 11 14

PAT 18 13 4 16 12 6 9 17 14 20 23 29

EPS (INR) 54 38 12 46 35 17 27 51 42 58 68 85

S: C, MOSL

496

700

401

646

952

528

801

1,063

588

HPCL BPCL IOCL

C P

D + . INR0.5/

D + . INR1/

34.7

54.9

7.0

15.50.8

A. FY14

EPS

I

MM

@INR0.5/

M

@15%

N

EPS

HPCL EPS (INR)

43.755.8

4.29.3

1.4

A. FY14

EPS

I

MM

@INR0.5/

M

@15%

N

EPS

BPCL EPS (INR)

32.739.8

2.55.4

2.3

A. FY14

EPS

I

MM

@INR0.5/

M

@15%

N

EPS

IOCL EPS (INR)


24/34

15 S 2014 24

I S

F

F FY11, 11%

13.5%. H

PV ,

FY11. T

50% FY12 37% FY14.

W F,

. T I,

PV, .

F,

, 10

INR12/. A ,

FY1114

35% 58% (FY13) (37% / 18% MSIL).

W 4045%

( 1QFY15 50%).

F , 11% CAGR

F11, PV

S: C, MOSL

P & 10

S: C, MOSL

MSIL: A H , MSIL

11% CAGR. R

MSIL, . W 16%

CAGR MSIL FY1417E,

CAGR 20%.

W ,

1QFY15. T ,

MSIL EPS CAGR 40% (FY1417E) / CAGR 31%.

S ,

MSIL 2 .

10

0

10

20

30

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

1QFY15

J'14

A'14

S'14

FY16???

FY17???

P D

0

25

50

75

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

1QFY15

J'14

A'14

S'14

P D

INR24/L

INR12/L

INR12/

L

P D

AUTO


25/34

15 S 2014 25

I S

S

S: C, MOSL

F T B

(% MSIL )

S: C, MOSL

MSIL

S: C, MOSL

R MSIL

S: C, MOSL

D

S: C, MOSL

S: C, MOSL

30

20

10

0

10

20

30

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

1QFY15

J'14

A'14

S'14

FY16???

FY17???

MSIL E L C G (%) P P C (%)

35

4750

4037

43

50

FY08 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 1QFY15 FY16???

FY08 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 1QFY15 FY16???

48 49

45

38 38

28 28

32

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 1QFY15 J'14

MSIL E L C (% )

33 34 35 36

48

5853 50

13 15 19 18

24

3732 32

FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 1QFY15

D ( % ) I

10,539 9,610 9,57512,029 12,049

17,038

21,000

13,000

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 1QFY15 FY16???

MSIL ' (INR/)

4.1 3.4 3.4 3.9 3.3 4.6 5.7 3.4

45

23

35

56

4249

61

40

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 1QFY15 FY16???

% % PBT


26/34

15 S 2014 26

I S

P + C + + I = M E

S: C, MOSL

C 90% 1

S: C, MOSL

MSIL' F17 JP/USD

JP/USD

EBITDA

M

(%)

EPS (INR)C EPS

(INR)PE ()

TP (17.5

C.

EPS)

90.000 12.4 174.5 279.9 17.5 3,054

95.000 13.3 190.4 295.8 17.5 3,332

102.000 14.4 210.0 315.4 17.5 3,676

P 107.000 15.1 222.5 327.9 17.5 3,893

110.000 15.5 229.4 334.8 17.5 4,014

115.000 16.1 240.1 345.5 17.5 4,202

120.000 16.6 250.0 355.4 17.5 4,374

S: C, MOSL

91

82

58

82

94

130

166

213

213

274

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

EPS M EPS

18

10 11

3

136

1627

31

22

3743

V EBITDA EPS

FY0811 FY1114 FY1417E (B) F1417E (M)

3,721

5,500

B @ 17.5 M @ 20

F17 T P (INR/)


27/34

15 S 2014 27

I S

I C

I HRC US$520/

US$535545/ 56 . T

C HRC . A I HRC

,

I .

L I

. S ( ),

,

. H, I

. L

I . T . C

USD60/. I

. T

. T C

.

I HRC

S: MOSL

I (TMT) USD60/

S: MOSL, B

I C

. I . I

.

I

I 0.3% YTD (AA 2014),

. R

2HFY15

11% YTD 2 4.46% 14.79%

. O, I . I ,

I ,

, .

33,000

35,00037,000

39,000

41,000

43,000

S13

O13

N13

D13

J14

F14

M14

A14

M14

J14

J14

A14

S14

HRC M (INR/)

32,000

34,000

36,000

38,000

S13

O13

N13

D13

J14

F14

M14

A14

M14

J14

J14

A14

TMT M (INR/)

METALS

HRC

USD1520/ WW

L

S


28/34

15 S 2014 28

I S

D

S: JPC

I TD J

S: JPC

C ;

C J

YY. YTD J FY15 2%

8% . A , C

. C

J 6.3 , 2007 74% . YTD J FY15

57% .

C J

S: MOSL, B

S: MOSL, B

C . W R

( 20%) R ,

E M (.. T S E) US .

C .

S: MOSL, M

C HRC .

S: MOSL, M

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0I (%)

400

200

0200

400

600

J12

A12

J12

O12

J13

A13

J13

O13

J14

A14

J14

I ('000 )

10%5%0%5%10%

15%20%25%

F11

M11

A11

N11

F12

M12

A12

N12

F13

M13

A13

N13

F14

M14

A (%)

(2.0)

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

O07

A08

O08

A09

O09

A10

O10

A11

O11

A12

O12

A13

O13

A14

C ()

433

538 565 570575 600 583

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

C

CIS

T

LA

EU

US

I

503542

595549

620567

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

C

CIS

LA

EU

US

I


29/34

15 S 2014 29

I S

S RM ,

S C,

. C,

, . A C

.

I , 15% 23

US$82/ C. W , US$111113/ (

A) 3%4% .

I (62% ) ,

US$82/ C

S: B, MOSL

US$110112/

A US$108/

S: B, MOSL

E (USD82/ C), (USD108 A)

2 . HRC

(

C). I ( CY2014),

. T I .

A ; T & SAIL

T , J, ,

. T

,

. T

. F,

40

.

U , O 6

2 . W

, S C ,

T S, SAIL OMC

/.

J

2 , T S

134

117

96

82

70

90

110

130

150

S13

O13

N13

D13

J14

F14

M14

A14

M14

J14

J14

A14

S14

CIF FOB

153

113 112

108100

110

120

130

140

150160

S13

O13

N13

D13

J14

F14

M14

A14

M14

J14

J14

A14

S14

S ( A) US$/

I 12%

23 ,

23%

O

6

2


30/34

15 S 2014 30

I S

SAIL. H, O ,

.

I

. W ,

. H,

( )

.

I

I

. R, O R P

S (RP S) I

B (O). T 3 (.. 4 S 4

D 2014). H, . RP S

, 4.5. A SM, RP

S 1 I , .

A ,

. A , 4050

. T

,

. A ,

, .

M

A ,

. I (T S SAIL)

( 10% 15%

... 1S, 2014) J .

T . T T

SAIL 10% 20% INR1000/

EBITDA . N JSW S

.

J & P ,

INR126/ . I INR295/

, INR30 (INR33/). I

, INR27/

INR1000/ .

NMDC . A

, I 10% 25% IODEX USD82/ C.

I IODEX , NMDC

. JS S .

H C

RP S

O

A ,

4050


31/34

15 S 2014 31

I S

S ...

C CMP TP

S (R ) R

EBITDA EV/M INR/

INR/ INR (6.5) (%) TP

T S 517 650 1000 9,541 62,017 64 10% 9.5 TSI FY16

SAIL 79 115 1000 14,705 95,583 23 20% 14.7 FY16

JSW S 1,348 1,647 1000 12,880 83,720 346 21%

JSPL 237 403 1000 3,849 25,019 27 7% 3.8 FY16

NMDC 177 222 300 10,136 65,881 17 7% 33.8 FY16

S ... EV/EBTIDA

1,647

650

115

403

222

1,182

507

93338

199

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

JSW TSL SAIL JSPL NMDC

INR/ A 6.5 A 5.5

S: MOSL

O

EV/EBITDA 6.5


32/34

15 S 2014 32

I S

I : PSB B G

A

( WPI) . A

CPI ( ),

. N,

, ,

() B NBFC, S

PSU () PSU GS

(MTM AFS ) () .

T GS ES, ASB, PNB,

LICHF, SBIN CBK.

1. B .

D 1Y 73% / (

FY14). M 60% / .

F, (19% )

.

2. A B: TAXSB /

ALM

, . T, ,

.

D 47% / ( FY14). E

AXSB .

3. SBI/PNB . F

. PNB AFS

PSU . E 100

28 ROA () PNB.

4. CBK . AFS

27% . E 100

25 ROA () MTM .

5. LICHFW ; 65% LICHF

NCD ( 50 ).LICHF NCD INR 44 2HFY15 ( )

INR60, INR 100

. LICHF NCD

( NCD 100 ). O

56% LICHF

. T

1015.

FINANCIALS


33/34

15 S 2014 33

I S

* S 100 J2006 S: C, MOSL

M (% ): ES CBK

S: C, MOSL

PNB CBK ( 100 )

B

G I.

B

(INR )

AFS I.

(INR )

AFS (%)

G I.

AFS

D

()

MTM G

(INR )

F15E PBT

(INR )

% F15E

PBT

% F15E

A A

SBIN 3,983 797 20.0 3.10 25 225 11.0 0.13

PNB 1,383 388 28.1 4.24 16 83 19.9 0.28

BOB 1,217 197 16.2 3.40 7 81 8.3 0.10

BOI 1,207 333 27.6 4.10 14 45 30.4 0.22

UNBK 918 211 23.0 2.63 6 34 16.2 0.15

CBK 1,299 345 26.6 3.80 13 37 35.3 0.25

OBC 596 138 23.1 3.84 5 20 26.3 0.23

INBK 457 101 22.2 3.00 3 16 18.7 0.16

S: C, MOSL

5

0

5

10

15

0

500

1000

J06

J06

N06

A07

S07

F08

J08

D08

M09

O09

M10

A10

J11

J11

N11

A12

S12

F13

J13

D13

M14

AXSB YES CBKSBIN PNB BI (WPI, RHS )

22.6 24.0 28.8 25.2

50.0 49.25.1 12.9

17.8 23.4

10.9 23.4

HDFCB ICICIBC AXSB FB IIB YES

U 6M 6M1Y

24.3 24.5 25.636.2 32.5

39.0

11.6 13.7 13.5

13.4 30.6

26.1

UNBK PNB SBIN BOI CBK BOB

U 6M 6M1Y


34/34

I S

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amended (the "Exchange Act") and interpretations thereof by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") in order to conduct business with Institutional Investors based in the U.S., MOSL has

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Regulations and is a subsidiary of Motilal Oswal Securities Limited in India. This research is distributed in Singapore by Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited and it is only directed in Singapore

to accredited investors, as defined in the Financial Advisers Regulations and the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289), as amended from time to time.

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Anosh Koppikar Kadambari Balachandran

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