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Comments on Settlement Infrastructure for Local Currency Internationalization
by Changyong Rhee and Lea Sumulong Paper
R. Sean Craig
IMF Resident Representative in Hong Kong
HKIMR Conference on Currency Internationalization
Hong Kong, December 11th, 2012
If you build a state-of-the-art RMB settlement system; will they come?
What role does the settlement system play in RMB Internationalization?
RMB Internationalization in Hong Kong depends on Mainland China’s capital account opening
• Partial opening of the capital account supported development of offshore RMB products and markets
• Supply of offshore RMB liquidity (i.e. RMB deposits) created by outflows from mainland (i.e. trade settlement)
• Usage of offshore RMB boosted by opening up of FDI channel to mainland and R-QFII
• Offshore RMB markets critical to trade and manage risks needs infrastructure to support liquidity
• Full convertibility unnecessary but some cross border flows and arbitrage needed to sustain market development
• Infrastructure for RMB settlement important but what else is needed?
Focus of China’s capital account opening shifts to liberalizing cross-border RMB flows ...
2007 Mainland financial institutions allowed to issue RMB-denominated bonds in HK subject to approval
2009 RMB cross-border trade settlement
2010 Foreign companies can issue RMB- bonds in HK
2011 RMB FDI and ODI
2012 Qianhai Shenzhen-Hong Kong Cooperation Zone will allow HK banks to lend directly to mainland firms
Hong Kong RMB deposit growth surged early but has since levelled off as RMB trade settlement stabilized
The share of trade settlement in RMB has levelled off as volatility makes it riskier to denominate trade in RMB
Banks have issues CDs that have absorbed deposits flows as they increase RMB lending (68 bn, end-Sept)
Measures supported RMB internationalization
Sources of RMB funds Uses of RMB funds
2004 Deposits, exchange – individuals, designated merchants
2009 RMB trade settlement
2010 RMB CDs, FI accounts
2010–2012 trade settlement expanded
2011 CN’s ODI settled in RMB
2012 RMB LTD ratio relaxed
2012 RMB liquidity facility at HKMA
2012 RMB deposits for non-residents
2004 Exchange, remittance
2007 RMB bonds
2010 RMB loans to corporates
2010 Pilot scheme to invest in Mainland interbank bond market
2011 Stock listing in RMB
2011 RMB FDI
2011 RMB Loans relating to CN’s ODI
2012 RMB QFII – A-share ETF
2012 Qianhai plan allowing HK banks to lend from HK to CH
Volatility in CNH-CNY differential reflect incomplete financial integration in offshore and onshore market
Volatility in CNH-CNY differential reflect incomplete financial integration in offshore and onshore market
Short term capital inflows to China and the CNY-CNH basis
Challenges for RMB internationalization remain
• RMB internationalization has depended on measures expanding cross border flows of RMB
• Demand for offshore RMB financial products healthy, but
• RMB liquidity in Hong Kong is tightening as both RMB deposits and trade settlement volumes have leveled off
• Redenomination of trade from dollars to RMB is slowed by the difficulty hedging RMB interest rate risk
• RMB internationalization must be a market driven process, the supporting infrastructure need further development