CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION: ROLE OF EXTREME

EVENTS

Stewart J. Cohen1) Adaptation & Impacts Research Group, Environment Canada[scohen@sdri.ubc.ca, http://www.msc-scm.ec.gc.ca/airg]

2) Institute for Resources Environment & SustainabilityUniversity of British Columbia, Vancouver[http://www.sdri.ubc.ca]

Presentation at the Environment Canada Scenarios Workshop, Victoria, October 16-17, 2003.

PrologueImpacts and adaptation research is not a linear process

Climate scenarios provider as member of interdisciplinary teams

Role of climate change scenarios is to help produce impacts ‘futures’

Must meet needs of a wide range of potential users (range of climate parameters, spatial resolution, link with current observation network)“Extreme event” not necessarily about magnitude; could be about timing, context, etc.

Need to establish “best practice” standards for production & application of extreme climate scenario products

IPCC-TAR, Synthesis Report (2001), Fig. 1-1

Three Questions for Climate Impact Assessment

What If?In a scenario of climate change, what would the impacts be if there was no proactive adaptation?

So What?Does the impacts scenario make a difference to stakeholders’ visions of the future?

What Should Be Done?What potential responses to this scenario can be identified?

IPCC-TAR, WG2 (2001), Fig. 18.2

Adaptation Questions

IPCC-TAR, WG2 (2001), Fig. 18.3

Climate Change, Variability, Extremes and Coping Range

Trends in the U.S. reflect peaks from individual events; no evidence of any trends in extreme event frequency or severity; increased losses due to population growth & development decisions

Trends of per capita extreme event losses in the U.S.(Changnon et al. 2000)

Source: MunichRe

Adaptation Lessons from Infrastructure Failure

1998 Ice Storm

Imperfect Imperfect AdaptationAdaptation

Weather-related Road Accident Risk

• Weather affects road safety

• Billions invested annually

• Large residual risk remains

Weather-related road accident risk (for Halifax-Dartmouth, Ottawa, Regina)

1995-98

(relative to dry/non-precipitation conditions)Source: Andrey, et al. 2001

Weather-related Road Accident Weather-related Road Accident RiskRisk

Weather-related Road Accident Weather-related Road Accident RiskRisk

FROM GLOBAL TO LOCAL:

Examples of

Regional

Climate Impacts

& Adaptation in

North America

(IPCC-TAR

WGII, 2001)

Reasons for concern about projected climate change impacts

(IPCC, (2001)WGII Summary for Policymakers)

Economic Costs of Climate ChangeImpacts & Adaptation; (IPCC, WGII-Ch. 19,2001)

Note: based on changes in mean temperature; reflects differences in assumptions about adaptation

Impact & Adaptation Assessment is Not a Linear Process

How to define the problem?Role of researchers & “actors” (stakeholders)

Scaling from global to regional?Climate change scenarios (means, timing, other statistics?)Socio-economic scenarios (population, development, “adaptive capacity”…)

How to choose biophysical impact models (crop, hydrology, forest growth, etc.)?

Data, scale, resolution, processes…

How to choose decision-support tools (economics, engineering, expert judgment)?How to link with regional/national policy?

Context, dialogue, context, dialogue…

Examples from Studies of Observed and Scenario Events

Drought of 2003; fires

Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS); fires, storm surges

Mountain pine beetle in British Columbia; warm winters and future potential

Okanagan water resources; will drought conditions become more common?

The Drought of 2003; Lessons for Climate Change Impacts/Adaptation?

Okanagan Mountain Park Fire

Okanagan-Urban Wildland Interface

Fires of 2003

(Natural Resources Canada)

Fires in British Columbia & Alberta, August 2003

Fire Weather Index Scenario for the 2050s (right) compared withFire Weather Index for the 1980s (left)

Source: Natural Resources Canada

Note: scenario of changing extreme event based on changes in mean monthly temperature

Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS) (1990-1997)

Governments – national, regional, indigenous peopleIndustry – energy, forestry, miningNGOs – advocacy (various)Academia – research, training

Scenario changes (GISS transient) to fire weather, BC and Alberta

(Kadonaga, 1997; Hartley & Marshall, 1997)

1980s

2050s

Permafrost Thaw & Damage to Road, NWT (2002)

Permafrost Thaw After Forest Fire near Norman Wells, NWT (1996)

Climate Change: Implications for the Mackenzie Basin

• Climate Change scenario includes increased permafrost thaw, longer growing season, increased forest fire risk, and reduction of ice season (storm surges?) • Potential constraints on proactive adaptation include use of land for subsistence, winter transportation system, and uncertainty about the futurehttp://www.msc-scm.ec.gc.ca/airg/publications

Permafrost thaw scenario (red equals 4 to 5 C increase plus increased snowfall) in the NWT Source: Dyke et al., in Cohen (ed.) 1997.

2001: Mountain pine beetle damage

Areas of susceptible pine and Mountain Pine Beetle (MPB) infestation since 1910

Are

a of

sus

cept

ible

pin

e (h

a ×

106 )

Are

a of

sus

cept

ible

pin

e (h

a ×

106 )

MP

B outbreak area (ha ×

103)

MP

B outbreak area (ha ×

103)

19101910 19301930 19501950 19701970 19901990 20102010

00

22

44

66

88

1010

00

250250

500500

750750

10001000

12501250

15001500

YearYear

• Frequent large-scale MPB outbreaks during last century

• Size of outbreaks correlated with increase in susceptible pine

• Frequent large-scale MPB outbreaks during last century

• Size of outbreaks correlated with increase in susceptible pine

Source: Allan Carroll

Canadian Forest Service

Mountain Pine Beetle – limits

Cool summers Winter minimums (below -40°C)

ALBERTACOLUMBIABRITISH

-40-40

Source: Allan Carroll

Canadian Forest Service

Very low

Low

Extreme

Moderate

High

Climatic suitability

1941 - 1970 1971 - 2000

2001 - 2030 2031 - 2060

Climatically suitable habitat for the mountain pine beetle

Source: Allan Carroll

Canadian Forest Service

Water Management & Climate Change in the Okanagan—Study Framework

Winter Season (DJF) 2050, Lat=50o Lon=120o

0

5

10

15

20

25

0 1 2 3 4 5

Mean Temperature Change (oC)

Pre

cipi

tatio

n C

hang

e (%

)

Summer Season (JJA) 2050, Lat=50o Lon=120o

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

0 1 2 3 4 5

Mean Temperature Change (oC)

Pre

cipi

tatio

n C

hang

e (%

)

Climate Change Scenarios for 50 °N,

120°W(Taylor & Barton, 2003)

CGCM2 A21

CGCM2 B21

CSIROMk2 A21

CSIROMk2 B21

HadCM3 A22

HadCM3 B22

Legend

CSIRO

0

1

2

3

4

5

Base2020's [A2]2050's [A2]2080's [A2]2020's [B2]2050's [B2]2080's [B2]

Flo

w V

olu

me (

10^

6 m

3)

January to March April to June July to August October to December

CGCM2

0

1

2

3

4

5

Base2020's [A2]2050's [A2]2080's [A2]2020's [B2]2050's [B2]2080's [B2]

Flo

w V

olu

me(1

0^

6 m

3)

January to March April to June July to August October to December

Hadley

0

1

2

3

4

5

Base2020's [A2]2050's [A2]2080's [A2]2020's [B2]2050's [B2]2080's [B2]

Flo

w V

olu

me

(10

^6

m3

)

January to March April to June July to August October to December

Base & scenariomean seasonalflow volumes atEllis Reservoir(Merritt & Alila,2003)

0

5

10

15

880 960 1040 1120 1200mm crop water demand

no. y

ears

/100

yea

rs

Average annual crop water demand 1916-2002 1026 1961-90 872 2020's *1015 2050's *1119 2080's *1239 * Estimates CGCM1

Frequency distribution 1916-2002 Centred on estimated 2050’s average

Crop water demand for hypothetical hectare of apple at Summerland, for historical and 2050’s scenario climate (Neilsen et al., 2003).

Stakeholder views on adaptation [March 2001]Engaging dialogue to identify adaptation strategies to scenarios of streamflow reductions during the growing season in the Okanagan Basin

Web site: http://www.sdri.ubc.ca/publications

Preferred adaptation options among the stakeholders?Structural (e.g. building upland dams) and social measures (e.g., buy out water licenses) preferred over institutional measures

Some implications of their choices?Stakeholders identified the high cost of dams, associated impacts on fisheries, and difficulties in restricting development as possible implications of their adaptation choices.

adaptation dialogue is just beginning...

Evolution of Scenario Application in Impacts/Adaptation Research

(a personal journey…)

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Okanagan02-04

Okanagan01-02

MBIS 90-97Sask. River87-89

Gt. Lakes84-87

GFDL, GISS

2xCO2

GFDL80GFDL87

GISSOSU

2xCO2

GFDL R30CCC1

2XCO2

GISS tr.

1%/year

CGCM2CSIROMk2

HadCM3

A2, B2

CGCM1ECHAM4HadCM2

IS92a

Ad hoc delivery through NCAR AES archive service CCIS (AIRG)

Key Messages

Impacts/adaptation research requires an interdisciplinary approach to fully address the range of potential issues that may arise due to climate change; scenario applications must fit into that context.

Current applications of ‘mean’ climate scenario products already include derivation of extreme event indicators (e.g. fire weather); future application of extreme climate scenario products could attract new users, BUT beware of simplistic definitions of ‘extremes’ (e.g. drought).

There are institutional & social components to vulnerability & adaptation, and this will continue to influence the framing of impacts/adaptation research questions, including the role of climate scenarios.