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SAWS_PARL/CT-001.1 05/06/2012

CLIMATE CHANGE, EARLY WARNING, ADVISORY SERVICES AND RELATED INITIATIVES

PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE PRESENTATION BY:

MR. MNIKELI NDABAMBI, GENERAL MANAGER: OPERATIONS

FOR

DR. LINDA MAKULENI, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER,

SAWS

05 JUNE 2012

SAWS_PARL/CT-001.1 05/06/2012

CONTENTS

Purpose of the presentation Related Strategic Drivers and program Forecasting Early Warning Advisory Services Climate Change related initiatives Conclusion

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PURPOSE OF PRESENTATION

To brief the Portfolio Committee Members on SAWS’ programmes on Climate Change.

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NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE RESPONSE-WHITE PAPER

In addressing NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE RESPONSE, WHITE PAPER-CHAPTER 4, identified the following as among Strategic Priorities:-

•Risk reduction and management

•Informed decision-making and planning

Then CHAPTER 5 addresses adaptation where

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Early Warning and Forecasting for Disaster RiskReduction are to be addressed.

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SAWS STRATEGIC DRIVERS AND PROGRAMS RELATED TO EARLY WARNINGS AND CLIMATE CHANGE

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•Safety of life and property

• Operational early warning system that encourages an integrated approach

•Provision of scientific information for adaptation and mitigation to climate change

• Adapting to the impacts of climate change and variability on food sustainability, rural development and quality of life of South Africans.

• SAWS will build on its experience on Air Quality & the Global Atmosphere Watch, to play a crucial role.

SAWS has also established seven Strategic Programmes the first being:

Climate Change and Variability Programme • Addressing and/or supporting national climate change adaptation and

mitigation initiatives;

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FORECASTING

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•SAWS offers Weather forecasts to different stakeholders on daily basis to inform the decision making-

•Forecasting issued can be categorised into:

Nowcasting

Short and Medium Range

Long Range Forecasting

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1. Nowcasting (0-14 hours)

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•SAWS offers weather forecasts and advices on weather phenomena that occurs on time scales from 0-24 hours e.g. severe thunderstorms, hail, lightning , tornadoes etc. for safety of life and reduced damage to property..•Utilize remote sensing infrastructure :

a) Weather Radarb) Satellite c) Lightning Detection Network

Nowcasting (0-14 hours)

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Also utilizing different models in an ensemble system to obtain forecasts on the short and medium term. Focus on temperature and rainfall forecasts .

Short and Medium Range (1 – 3 days) + (4 – 10 days)

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SAWS also offers weather forecasts on time scales varying as follows:a) 11 – 30 days (Extended range) b) 1 – 3 months (Seasonal)c) Longer time scales – (Annual, Decadal, Climate- in development phase)

Utilize Global Circulation Models (GCM), Ocean –Atmosphere-Land Coupled models.Collaborate with partnering institutions e.g. CSIR

Forecast for 2012

Long Range Forecast ( 11 days - 6 months)

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The white paper points to a need to

EARLY WARNING SYSTEM (EWS)

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• Use early warning systems to give timely warningsof adverse weather…..as part of adaptation to Climate Change and variability impact,

• It also encourages investment in education and awareness programmes

SWWS as an component of the MHEWS

EARLY WARNING SYSTEM (EWS)

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Based on international best practices (WMO & international Weather Services as benchmark)Introduced 3 color-coded alert categories: Advisory / Watch / Warning relating to specific hazard thresholds and lead-times

Standardized content of message Collaborate with NDMC to improve warning

dissemination

Advisory: Be aware

Watch: Be prepared

WarningTake action

Enhancement of the Early Warning Service

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Increasing Urgency through Alert Levels

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No Alert Advisory Watch Warning

Be Aware! Be Prepared!

Take Action!

No hazardous weather expected in next few days

Early warning of potential hazardous weather

Weather conditions are likely to deteriorate to hazardous levels

Hazard is already occurring somewhere or is about to occur with a very high confidence

2 to 6 days period

1 to 3 day period

Next 24 hours,3 hrs for FF, TS

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• Entails investigating the future patterns of change in Southern Africa's climate (temperature, rainfall, storms, extreme events, etc) over the next decades up to 2100;

• In collaboration with relevant stakeholders (e.g. other research institutions) impacts on South Africa's climate-sensitive sectors are identified and possible intervention measures recommended to relevant authorities.

Climate change and variability research

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SAWS is active on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group 1 to investigate how the intensity and frequency of climate extremes such as droughts , floods coastal storms are expected to respond to climate change.

Future plans: Develop a climate change impact modeling capability to support development of applications that will inform adaptation efforts and strategies on bi-annual to decadal times scales.

Climate change and variability research

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• SAWS is given a national role of monitoring and forecasting air quality

• The air quality modelling and forecasting group is developing the capacity to produce forecasts of national ambient air quality for a period of 48-72 hours

• Pollutants include; particulate matter less than 10µm, sulphur dioxide and tropospheric ozone

• Initially use the UK Met Office NAMEIII model, which is currently in use in the UK

Air Quality Modelling and Forecasting

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SAWS Embarked on road shows initiatives to raise severe weather awareness among communities as part of adaptation strategy (As reflected in the Climate Change white Paper).

Developed new warning systems i.e. South African Flash flood Guidance system(SAFFG), Southern Africa Regional Flash Flood Guidance system (SARFFG) Storm surge warning system, National Fire Danger Rating System, for veld and forest fire

warnings (with DAFF), Tsunami warning dissemination system (with NDMC and CGS) Community Rainfall Station

Expansion of SWFDP into SADC region

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Initiatives

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SAWS managed to develop a sophisticated hazard monitoring system, comparing very well with international best practices

Relationships between forecasters and disaster management structures are developing very strongly – more so in some districts than others

Effective dissemination of warnings to all levels of society are still a problem and need significant support and participation with other structures, including disaster management, Government DEPTs, media and other role players

Public awareness around the EWS and response to warnings and hazards need significant effort from all involved

Successes and Challenges

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THANK YOU

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