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Climate change and tourism Norwegian vulnerability and the case of winter tourism in Voss Guro Aandahl 12th Nordic Symposium in Tourism and Hospitality Research, 3rd October 2003, Stavanger

Climate change and tourism Norwegian vulnerability and the case of winter tourism in Voss Guro Aandahl 12th Nordic Symposium in Tourism and Hospitality

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Page 1: Climate change and tourism Norwegian vulnerability and the case of winter tourism in Voss Guro Aandahl 12th Nordic Symposium in Tourism and Hospitality

Climate change and tourism

Norwegian vulnerability and the case of winter tourism in Voss

Guro Aandahl

12th Nordic Symposium in Tourism and Hospitality Research, 3rd October 2003,

Stavanger

Page 2: Climate change and tourism Norwegian vulnerability and the case of winter tourism in Voss Guro Aandahl 12th Nordic Symposium in Tourism and Hospitality

Global average temperature since 1850

• Source: Climatic Research Unit og UK Met Office/Hadley Centrewww.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/warming/

Page 3: Climate change and tourism Norwegian vulnerability and the case of winter tourism in Voss Guro Aandahl 12th Nordic Symposium in Tourism and Hospitality
Page 4: Climate change and tourism Norwegian vulnerability and the case of winter tourism in Voss Guro Aandahl 12th Nordic Symposium in Tourism and Hospitality
Page 5: Climate change and tourism Norwegian vulnerability and the case of winter tourism in Voss Guro Aandahl 12th Nordic Symposium in Tourism and Hospitality

Map of Europe in a global climate model

Page 6: Climate change and tourism Norwegian vulnerability and the case of winter tourism in Voss Guro Aandahl 12th Nordic Symposium in Tourism and Hospitality

Datapoints in a downscaled model and Norwegian municipalitites

Page 7: Climate change and tourism Norwegian vulnerability and the case of winter tourism in Voss Guro Aandahl 12th Nordic Symposium in Tourism and Hospitality

What can we expect (RegClim)

• The larger picture is more robust than local climatic variations

• Different models give very different results for the patterns of atmospheric circulation, which is important for local patterns of wind and precipitation

• The models give quite similar results for decadal temperature increase in Scandinavia

• Most robust scenario: Increased precipitation in late autumn and winter, and increased tempteratures in winter

source: Hanssen-Bauer, RegClim

Page 8: Climate change and tourism Norwegian vulnerability and the case of winter tourism in Voss Guro Aandahl 12th Nordic Symposium in Tourism and Hospitality

CICERO’s vulnerability mapping

• To develop indicators of vulnerability in Norwegian municipalitites and map these using a GIS

• Sectors: Agriculture, winter tourism and forestry

• Discussed the maps and indicators with focus groups in selected municipalities

Page 9: Climate change and tourism Norwegian vulnerability and the case of winter tourism in Voss Guro Aandahl 12th Nordic Symposium in Tourism and Hospitality

Voss

• 13700 inhabitants

• Tourism employs ca 7 % directly (in hotels and restaurants)

• Varied local climate, from coastal to inland

• Topographic variation, from 50 m.a.s to ca 1000 m.a.s

Page 10: Climate change and tourism Norwegian vulnerability and the case of winter tourism in Voss Guro Aandahl 12th Nordic Symposium in Tourism and Hospitality

Relevant climate parametres for winter toursim

• Duration of winter season

• Snow depth, absolute change

• Snow depth, relative change

Page 11: Climate change and tourism Norwegian vulnerability and the case of winter tourism in Voss Guro Aandahl 12th Nordic Symposium in Tourism and Hospitality

RegClim’s downscaled climate scenario for Norway

• A regionally downscaled climate model

• We compare mean values for the years 1980-2000 to mean values for the years 2030-2050

Page 12: Climate change and tourism Norwegian vulnerability and the case of winter tourism in Voss Guro Aandahl 12th Nordic Symposium in Tourism and Hospitality

Change in duration of winter (days/year <0˚C)

Page 13: Climate change and tourism Norwegian vulnerability and the case of winter tourism in Voss Guro Aandahl 12th Nordic Symposium in Tourism and Hospitality

Snow depth change (average Jan, Feb and March, in cm and %)

Page 14: Climate change and tourism Norwegian vulnerability and the case of winter tourism in Voss Guro Aandahl 12th Nordic Symposium in Tourism and Hospitality

Combined index of exposure to climate change

Page 15: Climate change and tourism Norwegian vulnerability and the case of winter tourism in Voss Guro Aandahl 12th Nordic Symposium in Tourism and Hospitality

Voss vs competing destinations

Page 16: Climate change and tourism Norwegian vulnerability and the case of winter tourism in Voss Guro Aandahl 12th Nordic Symposium in Tourism and Hospitality
Page 17: Climate change and tourism Norwegian vulnerability and the case of winter tourism in Voss Guro Aandahl 12th Nordic Symposium in Tourism and Hospitality

Climate change in VossNB. Results from one model. Not a weather forecast!

• Duration of winter: - 19 days

• Snow depth, absolute change: - 85 cm

• Snow depth, relative change: - 49 %

Page 18: Climate change and tourism Norwegian vulnerability and the case of winter tourism in Voss Guro Aandahl 12th Nordic Symposium in Tourism and Hospitality

Changes in precipitation, Voss (RegClim)

Page 19: Climate change and tourism Norwegian vulnerability and the case of winter tourism in Voss Guro Aandahl 12th Nordic Symposium in Tourism and Hospitality

Changes in wind force, Voss (RegClim)

Page 20: Climate change and tourism Norwegian vulnerability and the case of winter tourism in Voss Guro Aandahl 12th Nordic Symposium in Tourism and Hospitality

Adaptation

”Det finnes ikke dårlig vær, bare dårlige klær.”

Page 21: Climate change and tourism Norwegian vulnerability and the case of winter tourism in Voss Guro Aandahl 12th Nordic Symposium in Tourism and Hospitality

Adaptive capacity and vulnerability

• Vulnerability = the risk of being exposed to a stress and lack of ability to cope with such a stress without suffering damaging loss

Page 22: Climate change and tourism Norwegian vulnerability and the case of winter tourism in Voss Guro Aandahl 12th Nordic Symposium in Tourism and Hospitality

Indicators of adaptive capacity in Norwegian municipalities

• Sensitivity– Employment in hotels and restaurants

• Demographic factors– Age composition of working population (55-66 yrs as % of 20-66)– Migration (trend the last 10 yrs)– Dependency rate (children/teenagers and elderly as % of population)

• Economic factors– Tax income per capita– Government transfers per capita– Employment prognosis

Page 23: Climate change and tourism Norwegian vulnerability and the case of winter tourism in Voss Guro Aandahl 12th Nordic Symposium in Tourism and Hospitality

Climate sensitivity:Employment in Hotels and restaurants

Page 24: Climate change and tourism Norwegian vulnerability and the case of winter tourism in Voss Guro Aandahl 12th Nordic Symposium in Tourism and Hospitality

Demographic and economic factors

Page 25: Climate change and tourism Norwegian vulnerability and the case of winter tourism in Voss Guro Aandahl 12th Nordic Symposium in Tourism and Hospitality

Adaptive capacity winter tourism – composite index

Page 26: Climate change and tourism Norwegian vulnerability and the case of winter tourism in Voss Guro Aandahl 12th Nordic Symposium in Tourism and Hospitality

Exposure and adaptive capacity – a comparison

Page 27: Climate change and tourism Norwegian vulnerability and the case of winter tourism in Voss Guro Aandahl 12th Nordic Symposium in Tourism and Hospitality

Input and conclusions from focus group interview

• 1970s: Voss biggest winter sports destination in Norway

• 1988: the winter disappeared

End of 1990s: steady decline

• 1999/2000: Investment in Snow machines, 17-18 mill NOK (Govt contribution 7,5)

Page 28: Climate change and tourism Norwegian vulnerability and the case of winter tourism in Voss Guro Aandahl 12th Nordic Symposium in Tourism and Hospitality

Input and conclusions from focus group interview

• Climate in competing destinations

• Climate in main markets (Bergen etc)

• Winter vs summer– Tour operators want both seasons

Page 29: Climate change and tourism Norwegian vulnerability and the case of winter tourism in Voss Guro Aandahl 12th Nordic Symposium in Tourism and Hospitality

Climate and place identity

From www.visitvoss.no