Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Climate Change and Impact on Corn and Grain Quality. Eugene S. Takle Professor of Agricultural Meteorology, Department of Agronomy Professor of Atmospheric Science, Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Director, Climate Science Initiative Iowa State University - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
Climate Change and Impact on Corn and Grain Quality
Eugene S. TakleProfessor of Agricultural Meteorology, Department of Agronomy
Professor of Atmospheric Science, Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences
Director, Climate Science InitiativeIowa State [email protected]
49th Annual Corn Dry Milling Conference, 29-30 May 2008, Peoria, IL
Outline
• Comparison of natural variability of climate and human induced climate change
• Projections of future climate change
• Impact of climate change on “regions suitable for rain-fed agriculture”, including the US Midwest
• What does this mean for agriculture and corn production in the US Midwest?
CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843.
CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843.
Natural cycles
Pattern repeats about every 100,000 years
IPCC Third Assessment Report
2008
384 ppm
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
2050
550 ppm
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
“Business as Usual”
950 ppm
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
?
“Business as Usual”
950 ppm
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2007/ann/global-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif
Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2007/ann/glob-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif
Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.
Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.
Natural cycles
Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.
Not Natural
Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
Reduced ConsumptionEnergy intensive
Energy conserving
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions
Energy intensive
Energy conservingReduced Consumption
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
Reduced ConsumptionEnergy intensive
Energy conserving
AdaptationNecessary
MitigationPossible
Suitability Index for Rainfed Agriculture
IPCC 2007
Suitability Index for Rainfed Agriculture
IPCC 2007
Projected changes in precipitation between 1980-1999 and 2080-2099 for an energy-conserving scenario of greenhouse gas emissions
IPCC 2007
Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest
Temperature
*Estimated from IPCC reports
Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest
Precipitation
*Estimated from IPCC reports
Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest
Other
*Estimated from IPCC and CCSP reports
Gu, et al, 2008: The 2007 eastern US spring freeze: Increased cold damage in a warming world? Bioscience 58 (3), 261-270.
2007 April Freeze Event
Gu, et al, 2008: The 2007 eastern US spring freeze: Increased cold damage in a warming world? Bioscience 58 (3), 261-270.
2007 April Freeze Event
Gu, et al, 2008: The 2007 eastern US spring freeze: Increased cold damage in a warming world? Bioscience 58 (3), 261-270.
2007 April Freeze Event
Gu, et al, 2008: The 2007 eastern US spring freeze: Increased cold damage in a warming world? Bioscience 58 (3), 261-270.
2007 April Freeze Event
Gu, et al, 2008: The 2007 eastern US spring freeze: Increased cold damage in a warming world? Bioscience 58 (3), 261-270.
2007 April Freeze Event
Summary• Climate change since the 1970s cannot be explained on the
basis of natural variation alone (consensus)
• Greenhouse gases emitted from burning fossil fuels account for more than half of the current warming (consensus)
• The warming already introduced will persist for more than a century (consensus)
• Corn production will encounter some benefits and numerous challenges (my assessment based on consensus)
• The US Midwest likely will suffer less adverse effects of climate change than many other major rain-fed agricultural areas (my assessment based on consensus)
