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Climate Change and Hydropower in Africa Impacts , Mitigation and Adaptation Yohannes Gebretsadik WIDER Development Conference Helsinki, 15 September 2018 1

Climate Change and Hydropower in Africa - UNU-WIDER...WIDER Development Conference Helsinki, 15 September 2018 1. ... •Hydropower :A renewable energy source •Climate adaptation

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Climate Change and Hydropower in AfricaImpacts , Mitigation and Adaptation

Yohannes Gebretsadik

WIDER Development Conference

Helsinki, 15 September 2018

1

Hydropower resource in Africa

2Source: International Hydropower Association | Hydropower Status Report 2018

Operating 35,000 MW

Under construction 17,000 MW

Planned 77,375 MW

Technical Potential 1,800 TWh/year

20000

22000

24000

26000

28000

30000

32000

34000

36000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Inst

alle

d c

apac

ity

(MW

)

Total Hydropower Capacity Growth

Hydropower and Climate Change

• Impacts on precipitation & temperature -> Change in hydrology

-> Change in Hydropower Generation

• Expected to play an increasing role in climate change adaptation• Hydropower :A renewable energy source

• Climate adaptation services: Offer flood management and drought protection

• Clean Battery: Energy storage and dynamic capacity to balance grids

3

Impact assessment

Water Models

• Hydrologic model

• Crop Model

• Water resources systems model

Hybrid Frequency distribution (HFDs) (Schlosser et al. 2011)

• Two emission scenarios • Unconstrained emission (UCE)

• Level 1 Stabilization (L1S)

4

Climate Change impacts on Hydropower : Zambezi

5

Botswana Malawi Namibia Mozambique Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe

Climate Change impacts on Hydropower : Zambezi

6

Comparison of Energy generation average for the period of 2045-2050s

-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 200

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

% Change of Hydropower Genration from the Base case

HFD (UCE)

Natural Variability

Hybrid (UCE)

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 150

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

% Change of Hydropower Genration from the Base-case

HFD(L1s)

Natural Variability

Hybrid (L1s)

Unconstrained Emission scenariosno policy action is taken to limit greenhouse

Level 1 Stabilization scenario Concentration at 560 ppm CO2

Climate Change impacts on Hydropower : Nile

7

Major

existing HP

Capacity

(MW)

Aswan Dam 2100

Merowe 1250

Roseires 280

Tana Beles 460

Tekeze 300

Bujagali 250

Nalubaale 380

Under

Construction

GERD 6000

Change in Runoff across Climate scenarios for main Nile flow at Aswan

Burundi Egypt Eritrea Ethiopia Kenya Rwanda Tanzania Sudan Uganda

Climate Change impacts on Hydropower : Nile

8

Percent change of Hydropower generation from reference case average over the years 2045-2050

for unconstrained emission (UC) and level 1 stabilization (L1S) climate change scenarios.

Climate Change impacts on Hydropower : Congo

9

Hydropower Name Capacity

Grand Inga 40,000 MW

Inga 3 4800 MW

Inga 2 1424 MW

Inga 1 351 MW

Climate Change impacts on Hydropower : Congo

10

Comparison of energy generation average for the period of 2045-2050s

Unconstrained Emission scenariosno policy action is taken to limit greenhouse

Level 1 Stabilization scenario Concentration at 560 ppm CO2

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 60

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

% Change in HP generation from base-Case

Hybrid L1s

HFD L1s

Natural Variability

-10 -5 0 5 100

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

% Change in HP generation from base-Case

Hybrid UCE

HFD UCE

Natural Variability

Remarks

Climate Change impact on hydropower generation vary by location … Change in Energy generation

… More risk in extreme values

Adaption

… to mitigate energy shortage

… to utilize opportunities

11

South Africa – Zambezi: More clean energy hydro-wind integration

12

• High Temporal and Spatial variation of Wind and solar resources • Inherently intermittent• Non-dispatchable source of Energy

• Regional Hydropower and Storage facility -> battery • Wind Generating Capacity 23,000 MW• HP Capacity 9,600 MW

Firm Generation of Combined Power

0 20 40 60 80 1000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Percentile

Po

wer

(MW

)

Wind power availability - Raw Green scenario

Regulated Generation under Wind-Hydro Operation

P90

Power duration Curve for wind-hydro Operation

13

00:00 Jan 01, 10 08:19 Jan 07, 10 16:38 Jan 13, 10 00:58 Jan 20, 10 08:17 Jan 26, 10 16:36 Feb 01, 100

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2x 10

4

Genera

tion(M

W)

Wind power Generation potential

Hydro-Wind Generation

Higher Reliability of meeting Power Target

➢ South Africa

➢ HP facilities in Zambezi

The Case for Regional Power Pools

Regional power interconnection

adaption to climate change?

14

East Africa Power Pool

Central Africa Power Pool

South Africa Power Pool

Conclusion

▪ No Single direction of impacts for the continent Africa , varies by location

▪ Climate Changes combined with variability, and change in variability

▪ Consider adaptations in the context of risk

▪ Flexible design of infrastructures

▪ Synergy of renewable resources for adaption

▪ Regional interconnection for better resilience

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