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Balochistan Partnerships for Sustainable Development Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan- Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE

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Page 1: Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan ... · Balochistan Partnerships for Sustainable Development Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan- Situation Analysis,

Balochistan Partnerships for Sustainable Development

Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan- Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations

INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE

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The designation of geographical entities in this report, and the presentation of the material, do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of IUCN concerning the legal status of any country, territory, or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect those of IUCN Published by: IUCN Pakistan, Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands and Government of Balochistan Copyrights: © 2012 IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources. “Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan- Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations” was prepared by IUCN Pakistan. This study was supported by the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands and Government of Balochistan. Citation is encouraged. Reproduction and/or translation of this publication for educational or other non-commercial purposes is authorised without prior written permission from IUCN Pakistan, provided the source is appropriately acknowledged. Reproduction of this publication for resale or other commercial purposes is prohibited without prior written permission from IUCN Pakistan. The opinions expressed in this document do not constitute and endorsement by the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands. Citation: IUCN Pakistan (2012). Balochistan Partnerships for Sustainable Development: “Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan- Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations” IUCN Pakistan, Quetta. Author: Saadullah Ayaz Technical editors: Miriam Kugele Editor: Scheik Zeevar Resource Persons: Zabardast Khan Bangash, Asghar Shah, Nadeem Mirbahar Design: Azhar Saeed, IUCN Pakistan Cover and back cover photo credits: Makran coast & Astola Island, Gwadar. Inamullah Khan and Saadullah Ayaz (IUCN, 2012) Available from: IUCN Pakistan, Balochistan Programme Office Marker Cottage, Zarghoon Road Quetta, Pakistan Tel +92 (81) 2840450-2 Fax +92 (81) 2820706 [email protected] www.iucn.org/pakistan

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Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan – Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations i

CONTENTS ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ........................................................................................................................... III

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................................................................................. V

1. BACKGROUND AND INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................. 2

1. 1. CLIMATE CHANGE AND PAKISTAN ....................................................................................................................... 2

I. CLIMATE CHANGE FACTS FOR PAKISTAN ........................................................................................................ 3

II. VULNERABILITIES AND IMPACTS ON PAKISTAN ................................................................................................. 3

1. 2. SITUATION IN BALOCHISTAN PROVINCE ............................................................................................................... 5

1.3. COASTAL DISTRICTS OF BALOCHISTAN PROVINCE ................................................................................................. 6

I. DISTRICT GWADAR ........................................................................................................................................ 7

II. DISTRICT LASBELA ...................................................................................................................................... 10

1. 4. CLIMATE CHANGE AND COASTAL DISTRICTS ON BALOCHISTAN ............................................................................ 12

I. RECORDED CHANGES IN CLIMATE OF BALOCHISTAN’S COASTAL DISTRICTS ........................................................ 12

1. 5. BALOCHISTAN PARTNERSHIPS FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT (BPSD), IUCN ................................................. 13

1. 6. RATIONALE, SCOPE AND OBJECTIVES OF THIS STUDY ......................................................................................... 13

2 STUDY METHODOLOGY ..................................................................................................................................... 16

2.1. PLANNING PHASE ........................................................................................................................................... 16

I. CONSTITUTION OF STUDY TEAM ..................................................................................................................... 16

II. WORK PLANNING ......................................................................................................................................... 17

III. IDENTIFICATION OF RELEVANT STAKEHOLDERS ............................................................................................. 17

2.2. STAKEHOLDER INTERACTION AND INFORMATION COLLECTION PHASE ................................................................... 17

I. MEETINGS WITH KEY STAKEHOLDERS .............................................................................................................. 17

II. COLLECTION OF MATERIAL (INFORMATION AND DATA) ...................................................................................... 18

III. CONDUCT OF FIELD VISITS .......................................................................................................................... 18

2.3. ANALYSIS PHASE ............................................................................................................................................ 18

2.4. PREPARATION OF FINAL REPORT ...................................................................................................................... 18

3 SECTOR WISE SITUATION ANALYSIS .............................................................................................................. 20

3.1. SECTORS CONTRIBUTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE ................................................................................................. 20

3.2. WATER SECTOR: CURRENT STATUS ................................................................................................................. 24

I. IMPACT OF USAGE ON GROUND WATER RESOURCES ....................................................................................... 24

II. ISSUES RELATED TO WATER SECTOR .......................................................................................................... 25

3.3. AGRICULTURE SECTOR: CURRENT STATUS ....................................................................................................... 26

I. AGRICULTURAL LAND-USE ............................................................................................................................. 26

II. AGRONOMIC PRACTICES ............................................................................................................................... 27

III. IRRIGATION PRACTICES AND RAIN-FED AGRICULTURE ................................................................................... 27

IV. RELATED ISSUES TO AGRICULTURE SECTOR ................................................................................................ 28

3.4. HORTICULTURE SECTOR: CURRENT STATUS...................................................................................................... 29

I. MAJOR HORTICULTURE PRODUCE .................................................................................................................. 29

II. ISSUES RELATED TO THE HORTICULTURE SECTOR ........................................................................................ 30

3.5. FORESTRY SECTOR: CURRENT STATUS ............................................................................................................ 31

I. FOREST VEGETATION OF COASTAL DISTRICTS .................................................................................................. 31

II. FOREST RELATED ISSUES ........................................................................................................................... 32

3.6. RANGELANDS AND LIVESTOCK SECTOR: CURRENT STATUS ................................................................................. 32

I. RANGELAND AND LIVESTOCK FACTS ............................................................................................................... 33

II. ISSUES IN THE RANGELAND/LIVESTOCK SECTOR ........................................................................................... 34

3.7. FISHERIES AND MARINE BIOLOGICAL RESOURCES .............................................................................................. 34

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ii Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan – Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations

I. CHANGES OBSERVED TO MARINE AND COASTAL RESOURCES ........................................................................... 35

3.8. DISASTERS AND EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS ................................................................................................... 40

3.9. SOCIAL SECTOR ............................................................................................................................................. 44

I. CHANGING LIVELIHOODS AND SOCIAL INSTABILITY .......................................................................................... 45

II. EQUITY AND INEQUALITY............................................................................................................................. 46

III. GENDER ISSUES ........................................................................................................................................ 46

4 POTENTIAL FUTURE IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE FOR COASTAL DISTRICTS OF BALOCHISTAN ..... 48

4.1. POTENTIAL FUTURE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE SECTORS CONTRIBUTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE ................................... 48

4.2. POTENTIAL FUTURE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE WATER SECTOR .............................................................................. 49

4.3. POTENTIAL FUTURE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR ..................................................................... 50

4.4. POTENTIAL FUTURE IMPLICATIONS FOR HORTICULTURE SECTOR ......................................................................... 50

4.5. POTENTIAL FUTURE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FORESTRY SECTOR .......................................................................... 51

4.6. POTENTIAL FUTURE IMPLICATIONS FOR RANGELANDS AND THE LIVESTOCK SECTOR .............................................. 52

4.7. POTENTIAL FUTURE IMPLICATIONS FOR FISHERIES AND MARINE BIOLOGICAL RESOURCES ..................................... 52

4.8. POTENTIAL FUTURE IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE INDUCED EXTREME EVENTS AND RELATED DISASTERS ...... 53

4.9. POTENTIAL FUTURE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE SOCIAL SECTOR .............................................................................. 53

5. CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................................................................................... 56

6. RECOMMENDATIONS ......................................................................................................................................... 60

6.1. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR SECTORS CONTRIBUTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE ............................................................ 60

I. SHORT AND MEDIUM-TERM MEASURES ........................................................................................................... 60

II. LONG-TERM MEASURES .............................................................................................................................. 60

6.2. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE WATER SECTOR .................................................................................................. 61

I. SHORT AND MEDIUM-TERM MEASURES ........................................................................................................... 61

II. LONG-TERM MEASURES .............................................................................................................................. 62

6.3. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR ........................................................................................ 63

I. SHORT AND MEDIUM-TERM MEASURES ........................................................................................................... 63

II. LONG-TERM MEASURES .............................................................................................................................. 63

6.4. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE HORTICULTURE SECTOR....................................................................................... 64

I. SHORT AND MEDIUM-TERM MEASURES .......................................................................................................... 64

II. LONG-TERM MEASURES .............................................................................................................................. 64

6.5. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FORESTRY SECTOR .................................................................................................... 65

I. SHORT AND MEDIUM-TERM MEASURES .......................................................................................................... 65

II. LONG-TERM MEASURES .............................................................................................................................. 66

6.6. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR RANGELANDS AND THE LIVESTOCK SECTOR .................................................................. 67

I. SHORT AND MEDIUM-TERM MEASURES .......................................................................................................... 67

II. LONG-TERM MEASURES .............................................................................................................................. 67

6.7. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FISHERIES AND MARINE BIOLOGICAL RESOURCES ......................................................... 68

I. SHORT AND MEDIUM-TERM MEASURES .......................................................................................................... 68

II. LONG-TERM MEASURES .............................................................................................................................. 68

6.8. RECOMMENDATIONS TO ADDRESS CLIMATE CHANGE INDUCED DISASTERS AND EXTREME EVENTS ......................... 69

I. SHORT AND MEDIUM-TERM MEASURES .......................................................................................................... 69

6.9. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE SOCIAL SECTOR .................................................................................................. 71

I. SHORT AND MEDIUM-TERM MEASURES .......................................................................................................... 71

II. LONG-TERM MEASURES .............................................................................................................................. 71

REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................................................. 73

ANNEXURE I ............................................................................................................................................................... 78 

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Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan – Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations iii

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

AF Acre feet

AZRI Arid Zone Research Institute, Quetta

BEEJ Balochistan Education and Environment Journey

BPSD Balochistan Partnerships for Sustainable Development

CNG Compressed Natural Gas

oC Temperature in degree Celsius

CRU Climate Research Unit, UK

DCR District Census Report

FAO Food and Agriculture Authority of the United Nations

GCISC Global Change Impacts Studies Centre, Ministry of Environment

GCMs Global Circulation Models

GDP Gross Domestic Product

ha Area in Hectares

GHGs Greenhouse Gases

GoP Government of Pakistan

HDI Human Development Index

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

IUCN International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources

IUCN-P International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources, Pakistan

LIEDA Lasbela Industrial Estate Development Authority

m meter

m3 cubic meter

m3/y meter cube per year

mcm million cubic meter

mm millimeter(s)

MODIS Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer

NO2 Nitrogen-di-oxide

O3 Ozone

Pak-EPA Pakistan Environmental Protection Agency, Government of Pakistan

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iv Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan – Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations

PM Particulate Matter

RAHA Refugee Affected and Hosting Area Project, Quetta (UNDP)

REDD Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation

SMEDA Small and Medium Enterprise Development Authority

SO2 Sulphur-di-oxide

SPM Suspended Particulate Matter

UNDP United Nations Development Programme

UNHCR United Nations High Commission for Refugees

USAID United States Aid for International Development

US$ United States Dollars

WHO World Health Organization

WWF World Wide Fund for Nature

μg/m3 Micro grams per cubic meter

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Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan – Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations v

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Anthropogenic climate change is recognized as one of the greatest challenges facing the world in the 21st century; however, its implications and impacts are not evenly distributed. Pakistan with its largely arid geographical placement and resource scarcity is particularly vulnerable. Climate change related phenomena such as high glacial melt, prolonged droughts, flash floods, cyclones and changes in weather patterns are affecting Pakistan’s water resources and therefore many other sectors of the economy. Impacts are already visible on the country’s natural resources, social systems and economy. Balochistan’s coastal districts are expected to be even more vulnerable than other areas of Pakistan, as they are located in the interface between the arid land and the ocean, and as most people depend on marine resources. As a result, IUCN Pakistan’s Balochistan Partnerships for Sustainable Development (BPSD) Programme decided to investigate the existing and future impacts of climate change in the two coastal districts of Balochistan in order to assist the Government of Balochistan in planning and incorporating adaptation strategies for climate change. The sectors specifically studied include water, agriculture and horticulture, livestock and rangelands, forestry, fisheries and the social sector. This study uses primary and secondary data to assess the observed current and likely future impacts of climate change. Most data is qualitative, based on extensive consultations with stakeholders on their perceptions on climate change issues and indigenous knowledge for coping. These views and experiences were contextualized within the prioritized sectors, analyzed and presented. The conclusion is that vulnerability of both ecosystems and socio-economic activities towards changes are already very high, and thus all these sectors are likely to be adversely affected by increasing temperatures, changes in precipitations and also climate change induced extreme events, as the main relevant parameters of climate change. Climate change poses multi-dimensional impacts and risks to various sectors in Gwadar and Lasbela, including of the finding that those most at risk are water, agriculture, horticulture, forestry, rangelands and livestock, marine fisheries and associated biological resources. First, the study briefly considers the sectors and activities in the coastal districts of Balochistan that contribute to emissions and thereby climate change. These include the industries along the coastal belt in Lasbela, the energy intensive ship-wreck industry in Gadani, the port operations related to Gwadar port and finally deforestation. With the unregulated nature of these activities, emissions are likely to continue to rise. The foremost climatic change already experienced is on precipitation patterns and volume. Water availability for domestic, agricultural, livestock and industrial uses will be significantly reduced. Yet, as most underground and above-ground storages are already depleted, this scarcity directly affects livelihoods and the productivity of ecosystems that support them. As agriculture is directly dependent on the availability of water the study finds that the sector will be one of the first to suffer from climate change. It is predicted that any further decline in water availability would prove catastrophic for local people’s food security and incomes. Local agricultural practices provide little scope for adaptation. The horticulture sector would similarly continue to face challenges that would be hard to manage. The area under cultivation and the amount produced are likely to decline, and the type of fruits planted likely need to change. Farmers consistently reported the high sensitivities and impacts already experienced. The local rangelands currently present the typical landscape behind the coast, yet vegetation types and their distribution are likely to be altered and large swathes degraded where desertification takes over. The resulting scarcity of fodder is a huge challenge for livestock herders. Many poor people find themselves without alternative livelihoods.

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vi Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan – Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations

The scarce forests in Gwadar and Lasbela and the mangrove forests provide a variety of ecosystem goods and services. These forests will continue to experience huge pressures, including demand for fuel-wood, and degradation unless immediate measures for their resilience are taken. It should also be noted that forests play a large role in sequestering carbon, therefore mitigating climate change. The rich marine ecosystem of the coasts provides for the majority of livelihoods in the two districts. The changes as witnessed by the commercial and small-scale fisheries are changed species composition, migration and also extinction of species. It is further projected that the majority of fishermen communities will face high risks for their livelihoods and its contribution to the economy. Climate change induced disasters are the most visible and often damaging types of climate change impacts on all the considered sectors. Gwadar and Lasbela are particularly exposed to such disaster impacts due to influences from both land and sea. These districts have already witnessed many such events in the recent past, the frequency and intensity of which are projected to increase. Adaptation to climate change is therefore of foremost importance to these areas and the communities. With impacts on multiple sectors in multi-dimensional and interactive ways, climate change has huge social implications for the coastal districts of Balochistan. Besides the disruption of livelihoods, the changes will likely have secondary effects, posing a severe development hazard if unmanaged. Finally, based on the complex findings and projections, the study provides a range of recommendations to address climate change issues and to manage the related impacts in the coastal districts of Balochistan Province.

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Climate Change and Coastal districts of Balochistan – Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations 1

The majority of people in coastal districts of Balochistan mainly depend on marine resources for their livelihoods. These ecosystems are directly affected by

abrupt and un-expected changes in the climate system

Photo: Kund Malir, Hingol, district Lasbela Saadullah Ayaz. (IUCN, 2011)

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2 Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan – Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations

1. BACKGROUND AND INTRODUCTION

The energy intensive development trajectories of human societies and changes in land use over the last centuries have emitted increasing amounts of greenhouse gases (GHGs). These gases trap heat radiation in the atmosphere. With the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-4AR, 2007) there is agreement that climate change has anthropogenic causes. The analysis suggests that a global temperature rise of 2-4.5 0C (degrees Celsius) by the end of this century is almost inevitable . Climate change directly affects precipitation and temperature regimes and, amongst others, has serious consequences for water resources, agricultural production, biodiversity/ecosystems, health and sea level rise. The IPCC-4AR as well as Human Development Report (UNDP, 2010) also elaborate that ensuing changes will particularly adversely affect poorer countries. Changes in the global and local weather patterns coupled with extremes climatic events suggest that climate change is already affecting long-term patterns and already has far reaching and often adverse impacts on economies, societies and ecosystems. The report also shows that climate change impacts are a main threat to maintaining progress in human development. The multi-dimensional issue of climate change has drawn the attention of scientist and politicians across the world. Sir Nicholas Stern (2006) was the first to analyze the economics of climate change. The report considers that the Gross domestic Product (GDP) loss due to climate change would be between 23-41 % (average of global GDP). The costs of stabilizing the climate by managing climate forcers (i.e. mitigation) are significant but manageable; delay would however pose much higher costs and risks. Other analyses have considered the cost of adjustments to reduce vulnerabilities and to alleviate adverse impacts of climate change (adaptation), though these show a wide range, also depending on the location, sector and action undertaken (cf. climatefundsupdate). This Chapter introduces the study and provides the background, explains the scope of work and its rationale and defines the objectives of this study.

1. 1. Climate Change and Pakistan Pakistan, stretching between 24o to 37o North latitudes and 61o to 75o East longitudes, has a unique geographical placement. The geographic north-south orientation and undulation topography attribute significant diversity to its local climates. The northern areas feature some of the highest mountain peaks of the world and are largely snow-covered in the winter months when temperatures fall below freezing point, yet have mild and pleasant summer season in the valleys. In southern parts of Pakistan, the climate is characterized by long, hot summers, with a mild but short-lived winter season. The Indus valley has an extreme climate with hot and dry summers and a pleasant winter season, although average temperatures vary considerably between the northern and southern regions of the plains. This geographical placement also shows a high variation in precipitation patters, where the average annual rainfall in the south is about 100 millimeters (mm), which gradually increases with altitude up to more than 1,500 mm in the northern hills. About 60 per cent of the land area receives less than 250 mm of rainfall per year, while 24 per cent of the area receives rainfall between 250-500 mm, (Pakistan Meterological Department, 2002) thereby constituting a relatively arid environment.

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Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan – Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations 3

This climatic variation supports a large variety of ecosystems, many of which are unique to the country. This ecological diversity includes snow covered peaks of Himalayas, Karakoram and Hindukush in north, with alpine tundra, temperate forests, sub-tropical vegetation, sub-mountainous plateau, vast alluvial irrigated plains, deserts and coastal mangrove ecosystems stretching towards the coast. All of these are characterized by their own floral and faunal uniqueness, that include many endangered species and others of high ecological, scientific, medicinal, spiritual and commercial value. Pakistan’s Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC, 2009) has attempted to model the past trends in change of temperature over Pakistan by making use of data from Climate Research Unit, UK (CRU). The obtained results clearly indicate that an increase of 0.6 °C over the past century (1901-2000) has occurred in Pakistan. The results also project a further rise in average temperate between 1.1 to 6.4 °C by the end of the current century (i.e. year 2100). The rise in temperature over Pakistan corroborates with the global rise in temperature over the previous century. The results of the GCISC study also revealed that the average precipitation increased by 25% during the previous century. This result indicates that the overall precipitation might have increased but the distribution patterns have significantly changed both spatially across the country and temporally (Sheikh., M. M., and Khan, A. M. 2009).

i. Climate Change Facts for Pakistan GCISC conducted a number of studies based on the ensemble outputs of several Global Circulation Models (GCMs). These results project that the average temperature over Pakistan will increase in the range 1.3 to 1.5 °C by 2020s, 2.5 to 2.8 °C by 2050s, and 3.9 to 4.4 °C by 2080s, with average winter temperatures rising slightly more than average summer temperatures (GCISC, 2009). The same study presents an analysis of precipitation changes by 2080 in Pakistan for the A2 scenario, estimating that precipitation will decrease by 3.48% (± 5.78). Likewise, for summers the change could be as much as 12.16% (± 8.91) increase, and for winters the decrease could be as much as 5.12% (± 4.78). These results indicate that the precipitation is projected to increase slightly in summers and decrease in winters, with no significant change in total annual precipitation, but indicating that the temporal precipitation distribution patterns will change. Furthermore, it is projected that climate change will increase the variability of monsoon rains and enhance the frequency of heavy precipitation, which would lead extreme events such as floods and droughts.

ii. Vulnerabilities and Impacts on Pakistan Climate Change is a posing increased environmental and developmental challenges, most of which have multiple dimensions in cause and effect. Pakistan has been rated as ‘at extreme risk’ by a Climate Change Vulnerability Index, published by Maplecroft in 2010. The index has placed Pakistan as number 16 in the ranking of most vulnerable countries of the world over the time horizon of the next 30 years. This index classifies the majority of the land area of Pakistan to be at extreme to high risk and other areas mostly in the medium risk category. Besides, Pakistan already experiences phenomenon such as high glacial melt, prolonged droughts, flash floods, cyclones and changes in weather patterns. These in turn are affecting Pakistan’s water resources and agricultural productivity, which is the backbone of its economy. The country’s vulnerability to such impacts and changes is likely to increase considerably in the coming decades.

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4 Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan – Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations

Pakistan is particularly vulnerable to any further changes in temperature of its atmosphere because it generally has a warm climate. Also, it lies in a world region where the temperature increases are expected to be higher than the global averages (Khan, A. M. 2009). The precipitation is also scarce with an un-even distribution so that the land area is mostly classified as ‘arid’ and ‘semi-arid’. The rivers are predominantly fed by the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayan glaciers, which are reported to be receding rapidly due to warming. The report of the Planning Commission’s Task Force on Climate Change (TFCC, 2010) has identified the following most important climate change threats to Pakistan: a. Increased variability of monsoon; b. Rapid recession of Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalayan (HKH) glaciers, threatening

water inflow into the Indus River System (IRS); reduction in capacity of natural reservoirs due to glacier melt and rise in snow line;

c. Increased risks of floods and droughts; d. Increased siltation of major dams resulting in greater loss of reservoir capacity; e. Severe water-stress and heat-stress in arid and semi-arid regions, leading to

reduced agriculture productivity and power generation; f. Increased upstream intrusion of saline water in the Indus delta, adversely affecting

coastal agriculture, mangroves and breeding grounds of fish; and g. Threat to coastal areas including the city of Karachi due to sea level rise and

increased cyclonic activity due to higher sea surface temperatures. The above threats lead to major concerns for Pakistan in terms of its water security, food security and energy security. Some other climate change related concerns of Pakistan include: further deforestation; loss of biodiversity; increased health risks and risks to other vulnerable ecosystems e.g. rangelands, degraded lands, mountainous areas etc. (TFCC, 2010).

Climate change has also influenced a number of un-expected and extreme climatic events including drought (1999-2000 prolonged up to 2002), cyclones (Bhola in 1970,

Map showing Pakistan’s Risk to Climate Change Source: Maplecroft, 2010

Extreme Risk

High Risk

Medium Risk

Low Risk

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Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan – Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations 5

Yemyin in 2007, Phet, 2010) and floods (1973, 1976, 1992, 2005 and 2010). Scientific inquiries have attributed these events to climate change. The catastrophic and devastating flooding in 2010, which has been assessed to be the worst since 1929, is evaluated to be caused by exceptional heavy monsoon rains in the Upper Indus Basin, which was further intensified by accelerated melting of glaciers that feed into the Kabul, Swat, and Indus rivers - both of these factors can be attributed to climate change. These heavy floods in Pakistan affected more than 20 million people (over 10% of the total population) and killed more than 2,000 people, furthermore causing economic damage of about US$ 43 billion (Jakarta Globe, 2010).

1. 2. Situation in Balochistan Province Balochistan is geographically Pakistan’s largest province that covers an area of 347,190 square kilometers, which constitutes 43.6 per cent of the total area of the country. The Province neighbors Iran to the west; Afghanistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province to the north; Punjab and Sindh Provinces to the east and the Arabian Sea to south. Balochistan has a strategic geo-political significance for the Central-South Asian region. The province has a unique physiography, the majority of which features rough terrain with a combination of mountainous tracts and plains that are often divided into basins of varying heights. Due to these features, the ecology of the province has distinct - and several unique - ecosystems including mountain ranges, deserts and dry-lands, inland water bodies, forests, woodlands, grasslands and savannas, and the shoreline with associated ecosystems Balochistan has the lowest Human Development Index (HDI) of all the provinces of Pakistan at 0.556 on a scale between 0 (low) and 1 (high HDI) (SPDC, 2009). It has also suffered due to very low public and private investments over the years. This situation has compromised the sustainable use of resources in Balochistan. Poor natural resource management over the last few decades coupled with high population growth and fuelled by the massive influx of Afghan refugees has resulted in huge decline in quality and quantity of natural resources.

Image showing 2010 flooding in Indus River System (IRS) in Pakistan Left Side: before and Right Side: After flooding

Source: American Enterprise Institute, 2010

IRS pre- 2010 monsoon

IRS post- 2010 monsoon

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6 Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan – Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations

The province of Balochistan has a very fragile economic base and social structure, which to a large extent is dependent on natural resources. Various changes have resulted in tremendous decline of ecosystem productivity. This discussion shows that the province is experiencing many changes, including socio-economic, ecosystem and climate changes, the effects of which may even amplify each other and create significant risks to development prospects.

1.3. Coastal districts of Balochistan Province

Balochistan province has a vast coastline stretching over 800 km from near Karachi to the

Gwadar Bay on the Pakistan-Iran border (Rasool et al. 2002). The whole area has a rich marine

life and has long beaches on the shore of the Arabian Sea. The coastal areas of Balochistan

encompass a very unique and complex array of geographical settings. The natural features

include a very large area of mangrove forest and vast shores that host a diversity of marine life.

Administratively, the coastal areas of Balochistan province fall in southern district of ‘Lasbela’ and

southwestern district of ‘Gwadar’. Both of these districts have large similarities in geography,

ecology, livelihoods and socio-cultural values.

The coastal ecosystems in Balochistan are highly productive ecosystems that provide a range of

goods and services. They support a variety of habitats, including salt marshes, sea-grasses, and

mangroves, thereby providing essential habitat for many fish and shellfish species. With a human

population of more than a million and abundant natural resources, the coastal districts of

Balochistan significantly contribute to overall economic activities and development in the Province. Map Showing Coastal districts of Balochistan Province

Source: BPSD, 2011

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Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan – Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations 7

i. District Gwadar Gwadar is one of the two coastal districts of Balochistan province lying on the south-western Arabian Sea. The word ‘Gwadar’ is derived from two Balochi words ‘guad’ meaning ‘wind’, and ‘dar’, meaning ‘gate’, and literally means ‘Gateway of Winds’. Previously, the area was under the control of Sultan of Oman, but was purchased by the Government of Pakistan in September 1958. It was declared as a district in 1977 as the three Districts of ‘Kech’, ‘Panjgur’ and ‘Gwadar’ were separated. Gwadar is bordered on the north by Districts ‘Kech’ and ‘Awaran’, on the east, by ‘Lasbela’, on the south by the Arabian Sea and on the west by Iran. Gwadar district is subdivided into tehsils (or sub-districts) of ‘Gwadar’, ‘Jiwani’, ‘Ormara’, ‘Pasni’ and ‘Suntsar’. Gwadar city is the district headquarters of Gwadar district, which is strategically located at the mouth of the Persian Gulf. Gwadar city is famous for the Gwadar Port, a newly-built strategic, warm-water, deep-sea port. The city is situated on a natural hammerhead-shaped peninsula formed by two almost perfect, naturally curved semi-circle bays on either side, namely the Gwadar West Bay and Gwadar East Bay. Gwadar is largely flat barren land with two hills, the ‘Koh-e-Batil’ or ‘Alambateer’ or ‘Hammer head’ (height 449 ft.) as well as ‘Koh-e-Mehdi’ (height 1,112 ft.) to the east of the city.

a. Geography and Topography Gwadar District has a total area of 15,216 square kilometers. The district's coastline stretches for 600 kilometers, comprising 78 percent of the Provincial coastline and 55 percent of the entire coastline of Pakistan. The coastline is intercepted with bays, creeks and lagoons as well as beaches with clear sand. Several shallow water lagoons host the predominant coverage of mangrove forests in places away from human and livestock disturbance.

Base Map of Gwadar District

Source: BPSD, 2011

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8

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Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan – Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations 9

streams that result in this coastal zone being one of the most productive in the world. The effects of extreme events at the coast, including sea level rise, cyclones and storm surge are generally high. Low lying areas such as Gwadar as well as lagoons and wetlands are expected to be the first affected (Government of Balochistan and IUCN Pakistan 2000). There is a continual process of erosion and deposition along the coast. Erosion is already a major problem in Gwadar and Pasni (Government of Balochistan and IUCN Pakistan 2000). Other environment related problems include degradation of coastal and marine ecosystems, over-exploitation of marine resources due to unrestricted use of purse seine nets or ‘gujja’, wire nets and bottom trawling. The coast is located on one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world where approximately 11,000 ships of around 12,000 million tones deadweight and 2,500 tankers carrying 33 million tonnes of oil pass annually (Government of Balochistan and IUCN Pakistan, 2000). All these factors are endangering marine species. The winds expose the district coast to the threat of oil pollution that is already of some concern along the Gwadar and Pasni coastline. Sources of oil pollution include fishing boats, merchant vessels and oil tankers as they pass through. c. Demography, Economy and Development According to District Census Report (DCR) of 1998, Gwadar District had a population of 185,498. With an average annual growth rate of 2.99 percent it is projected to have reached 227,984 in 2005. The density of population in 1998 was about 12 people per square kilometer, which is very sparse. The sex ratio is 1.15 (115 males per 100 females), indicating a larger number of men than women, due to development prospects in Gwadar attracting large numbers of labourers to settle in the area. This is likely going to lead to a substantial increase in the district's population in the near future. Gwadar is the second most urbanized district of Balochistan after Quetta, with 54 percent of the district population living in four urban localities. Urbanization along the coast has increased. The scoping of economic activities in 1998 indicates that the largest proportion of the workforce is employed in fishing, followed by government service, construction, trade and transportation. Since 2003, a perceptible change in the economic activities of the district has taken place. Construction has emerged as the second largest economic activity after fishing. The population of Gwadar is increasing rapidly with migration from other areas to cater to emerging employment opportunities in the construction sector. Agriculture and livestock are the dominant economic activities in rural areas (DCR, 1998). The government's decision to construct a deep sea port and offer incentives for investment has led to rapid growth in the district. Gwadar has witnessed major changes in recent years on account of a large influx of people that has increased demand for all civic

Gwadar Port (Phase-I) is a major development project in the district

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10 Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan – Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations

necessities and services. The most significant development is a boom in the real estate business accompanied by an escalation of prices in this sector. ii. District Lasbela Lasbela lies on the southern coast of the Arabian Sea in Balochistan Province. The name is derived from the words ‘las’ which signifies a plain and ‘bela’ which means ‘jungle’. It became a separate district in 1954. Lasbela in bordered to the north by the District ‘Khuzdar’, on the east by the Province of Sindh, on the south by the Arabian Sea, to the west by the District ‘Gwadar’ and towards the north-west by the District ‘Awaran’. Lasbela is administratively subdivided into four tehsils, which are Bela, Dureji, Hub and Uthal and further into 21 Union Councils. Uthal is the District’s headquarter, where all the major government offices are located.

The landscape of the district is predominantly a vast sandy plain regularly interrupted by hilly areas. The coastal belt is characterized by many bays and creeks with shallow water. Many small towns and hamlets (mostly fishermen settlement) are the main features of the district.

Base Map of Lasbela District Source: BPSD, 2011

Vast dry plains and shallow water bays are a typical representation of the landscape of District Lasbela

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Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan – Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations 11

a. Geography and Topography District Lasbela has a total area of 12,574 square kilometers. The coastline stretches about 200 kilometers in length, comprising about 22 percent of the coastline of the Province. The coastal area has characteristic deep bays, creaks with frequently occurring sandy and rocky beaches along slopes of coarse limestone. The coast experiences high siltation mostly in areas along the Hangol river delta. Such locations show good growth of patchy mangrove forest and its associated ecosystem. b. Climate, Environment and Natural Resources District Lasbela has a typical tropical dry and hot climate. Due to its coastal placement, the winters are mild and last not more than three months (December to February). Summers are hot and dry with continuous winds, which keep the temperatures moderate and pleasant. Accurate data for temperature and precipitation is not available, however, are likely to closely tally to data recorded for Gwadar district. Lasbela also faces a range of environmental problems due to pollution. Two major sources of pollution of water bodies that is Gadani ship-wreck industry and Gadani Industrial Estate. Gadani is the world's third largest ship breaking yard, consisting of 132 ship-breaking plots located across a 10 km long beachfront at Gadani. The Industrial Estate located at Hub is the largest industrial establishment in the Balochistan province that comprises roughly 185 small, medium and large industrial units. The gaseous emission and effluents form both these large industrial establishments have badly affected the local environment and have caused considerably pollution of water bodies and also the sea, thus causing damage to fisheries.

Ship breaking industry in Gadani is a major source of pollution of the coastal areas in Lasbela. Many toxins are freely dumped on the coast

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12 Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan – Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations

c. Demography, Economy and Development The population of Lasbela was estimated to be over 700,000 in the year 2005, with an average growth rate of 3.03 %. The population density is estimated to be 29.02 persons per sq km, which is quite low as compared to other areas of Pakistan. The population sex ratio at birth is 1.15 (115 males per 100 females), which indicates that males outnumber females born (DCS, 1998) A large numbers of locals are engaged in economic activities at the coastal areas, which include fisheries and other associated industry like boat making, netting etc. Changes including coastal erosion and deposition of sediments in bays pose a direct challenge to the fishermen community, who directly depend on these areas for their livelihoods. Also a large number of people are associated with the industrial estate located at Hub that employs a huge work force both at technical and non-technical cadres. A sizeable population is also engaged with agriculture practices, which include growing wheat, cotton, castor oil, banana etc. Livestock rearing is also practiced by large majority of people (DCS, 1998). The agriculture and horticulture sectors have been impacted by a reduction in available water and in some areas, including ‘Damb’ in tehsil Sunmiani and ‘Kund Malir’ in tehsil Hingol, and erosion has taken away a large portion of the coast.

1. 4. Climate Change and Coastal Districts on Balochistan Precipitation patterns and freshwater runoff, sea surface temperatures and ocean currents, wind, insolation, tides, sea-level changes, and numerous additional forcing factors all influence and shape the geophysical and biological nature of coastal landforms, habitats and ecosystems in Balochistan (National Coastal Assessment Group, 2000). The geographical setting within the coastal areas of Balochistan leaves the area especially vulnerable to profound physical, ecological, and associated societal disturbance from global climate change. The major climate change related impacts on the coastal districts are expected to be from sea level rise, sea intrusion and erosion, cyclones, and droughts. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) reports that the temperature of the world’s oceans has increased, on average, by 0.3 °C during the past century and is likely to continue to increase throughout the next century. The changes in ocean temperature have multi-dimensional impacts both in the sea and also on the adjoining land/coastal areas.

i. Recorded Changes in Climate of Balochistan’s Coastal districts Various scientific studies have been conducted by Global Change Impact studies Centre (GCISC) to model climate profile and past climatic changes in coastal areas of Pakistan. Sheikh et al (2009) observed the following climatic changes in the climate of the specific coastal areas: a. Mean temperature trend over Zone VI. The study analyzed trends in mean temperature over the coastal areas taking an average for the years 1951 to 2000. As per obtained results, the mean annual temperature has not changed at all since 1951. However, significant changes have been observed in seasonal mean temperatures. The mean temperature for monsoon season (July to September) in these districts has dropped by 0.18 0C. Yet, the mean annual temperature for winters

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Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan – Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations 13

(December to March) has increased by 0.05 0C and for April to May and October to November increased by 0.03 0C and 0.30 0C respectively. The results indicate an uneven change of mean temperature in different seasons for coastal areas.

b. Mean Annual Maximum and Minimum temperature trend The mean maximum annual temperature is observed to have decrease changed by 0.08 0C since year 1951, while again showing a slight decrease in maximum temperatures from June to May but a slight increase from October to November. The mean minimum temperature over the coastal belt is observed to have changed by an average of 0.13 0C, with similar seasonal changes c. Annual Precipitation changes in coastal areas The study found that the mean annual precipitation has decreased by 0.82 percent between 1951 and 2000. The study has observed no change for average precipitation for the months between December to March and a decline of 1.34 percent for the monsoon period (June to September).

1. 5. Balochistan Partnerships for Sustainable Development (BPSD), IUCN

IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources, Pakistan is implementing ‘Balochistan Partnerships for Sustainable Development (BPSD) Programme’ in the Province of Balochistan though support of Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, Government of Balochistan and other stakeholders including academia, non-governmental organizations and other relevant partners. The objective of BPSD is ‘promoting sound environmental governance at the district level through visioning, planning and implementation of relevant priority interventions in the province’. This six year programme (2007-2013) covers six districts of Balochistan province, that are ‘Quetta’, ‘Pishin’, ‘Mastung’, ‘Lasbela’, ‘Gwadar’ and ‘Qila Saifullah’. The areas of intervention under BPSD include environmental governance, water resource management, watersheds and rangelands improvement, and coastal ecosystem improvement and rehabilitation. Additionally, climate change and desertification are cross-cutting foci while addressing these sectors. Also, vertical as well as horizontal linkages and alliances between government, civil society, private sector and natural resource are being enhanced. Beside field initiatives, BPSD also focuses on building partnerships and alliances, and capacity enhancement for institutions and professionals.

1. 6. Rationale, Scope and Objectives of this Study As part of its overall objective to promote sound environmental governance through visioning, planning and implementation and taking climate change as a cross-cutting theme, IUCN Pakistan’s Balochistan Partnerships for Sustainable Development (BPSD) Programme has decided to investigate the impacts of climate change on coastal districts of the province, in order to better assist the Government of Balochistan in its planning and adapting to the challenges of climate change.

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14 Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan – Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations

The geographical scope of the study is the two coastal districts of Balochistan province i.e. Gwadar and Lasbela. The study uses primary and secondary data available at different levels including scientific, demographic and natural resource data, as well as indigenous knowledge and perceptions of the local population about climate change issues. The study also relies on expert judgment and consultation. The overall aim of the study is to assess the potential impacts of climate change on coastal districts of the province and help to enable the Government of Balochistan in better planning to cope with this tremendous challenge. The objectives of the study are as follows: i. Establish an overview of coastal districts of Balochistan including Gwadar and Lasbela’s

current baseline position with regard to climate change in terms of available scientific information;

ii. Establish a baseline of factors that underlie the high vulnerability of Baluchistan’s coastal

districts to climate change, taking an account of ecological, geographical, socio-economic and socio-political aspects;

iii. Project the likely impacts of climate change within the selected districts with respect to

current and future impacts on ecosystems, livelihoods and development and identify sectors and areas highly prone to expected impacts;

iv. Identify the available expertise and capacities of relevant stakeholders and identify key

issues in assessing the impacts and;

v. Recommend ways to respond to and minimize the impacts of climate change with respect to appropriate mitigation measures and urgent adaptation needs.

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16 Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan – Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations

2 STUDY METHODOLOGY

This study on ‘Climate Change and Coastal districts of Balochistan- Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations’ presents an analysis of the prevailing situation of the coastal districts of the Balochistan province in respect to climate change. This study report is product of a series of investigations undertaken to assess the current situation of the coastal areas of Balochistan with regards to climate change, current impacts and future implications for these areas. The analysis presented in this report is primarily qualitative, which has been obtained from consultation with stakeholders. This Chapter contains information on the adopted study and research methodology, including data collection, analysis and justifications for devising the recommendations. 2.1. Planning Phase

i. Constitution of Study Team In order to carry out this study, an in-house team of experts was constituted by IUCN with relevant technical background and know-how of the different aspects related to climate change, including policy, mitigation, adaptation, natural resource management and urban issues. A representative from IUCN Balochistan Programme as well as the district coordinators were included in the study team to establish and maintain linkages with partners at provincial level. The study team comprised of the following professionals: a. Saadullah Ayaz. Coordinator Climate Change/ Country Network Coordinator

(Clean Air Initiative), IUCN Pakistan As key author of the report and with overall responsibility for the timely delivery and quality of the output, he conducted the complete analysis of information/data, interactions with with local stakeholders, partner institutions and regional colleagues, as well as coordination of the team, data collection, analysis and writing.

b. Asghar Shah. District Coordinator, Gwadar, BPSD, IUCN Pakistan He was responsible for local coordination of the study in district Gwadar, including

setting up meetings with stakeholders, planning and organizing field visits and making logistical arrangements. Mr. Shah also gathered and provided relevant technical information on climate change and marine ecosystems from partners, including relevant reports and data.

c. Nadeem Mirbahar. District Coordinator, Lasbela, BPSD, IUCN Pakistan

He had the responsibility of local coordination of the study in district Lasbella, including setting up meetings with stakeholders, planning and organization of field visits and making logistical arrangements. Nadeem also gathered and provided relevant technical information on climate change from partners, including relevant reports and data. He was also responsible for providing technical guidance on issues and recommendations related to coastal ecosystems.

d. Mehboob Ali. Environmental Governance Officer, BPSD, IUCN Balochistan He was responsible for the local coordination with partners and stakeholders at provincial level (in Quetta) and maintaining linkages with the provincial Government.

The study was conducted under the overall guidance of Zabardast Khan Bangash, Manager, Balochistan Partnerships for Sustainable Development, IUCN Pakistan. Continuous guidance was sought from other colleagues and experts at IUCN Pakistan as well as . IUCN’s regional experts.

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ii. Work Planning A detailed review of available literature was carried out regarding various aspects of the proposed topic. A Concept Note was drafted to highlight the background, proposed methodology and objectives and outline of the study. Various climate change related issues were discussed, which provided reasons for conduction of study The draft concept note was shared in-house with relevant experts to obtain feedback and ensure that all aspects are adequately studied. Detailed Terms of Reference (ToRs) were prepared to specify roles and responsibilities of each member of the study team. These were finalized after detailed and in-depth discussions with professional staff at IUCN Pakistan. A work plan was developed to steam-line the study and ensure timely deliverables. BPSD team was actively engaged for guidance during the work planning. Gender Considerations Women make up a large proportion of the poor in communities in the coastal districts of Balochistan and are highly dependent on local natural resources for their livelihood. Women’s limited access to resources and decision-making processes increases their vulnerability to climate change. Treating this as a special case, gender considerations have been integrated throughout this study from planning up to the production of final study report. All possible effort was made to adequately cover gender aspects, wherever socially acceptable. However, photographic evidence has not been adequately covered and also interview with women were extremely limited. iii. Identification of Relevant Stakeholders A preliminary exercise was conducted to identify stakeholders relevant to the subject of climate change at national and provincial level and also at district level in both the targeted districts of Gwadar and Lasbela. This involved strong guidance from the BPSD team, which is actively engaged with almost all relevant stakeholders from district government to academia and grass-root organizations.

2.2. Stakeholder Interaction and Information Collection Phase

i. Meetings with key stakeholders During this phase, one-on-one meetings were conducted with key stakeholders. First they were briefed on the objectives of the study, the proposed methodology and scope of work. Their guidance was sought on the study and in particular their views were obtained on the trends in climate change and impacts on various socio-economic, socio-political and ecological aspects of the study area. The meetings were held with a broad range of stakeholders from senior government officials, researchers, faculty members from academia, civil society organizations and grass-root organizations. List of all people met is attached as Annex-I.

Meeting of study team with Asfand Yar Khan. Deputy Commissioner, Lasbela

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18 Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan – Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations

ii. Collection of Material (Information and data) All material relevant to the subject was collected from all available sources, particularly that relevant to the coastal districts of Gwadar and Lasbela. Relevant papers were gathered on similar studies by making use of libraries, online resources and by contacting researchers within Pakistan. Relevant information included scientific data, publications, research work and grey literature.

iii. Conduct of Field Visits In order to investigate the impacts of climate change on various, environmental and socio-economic sectors in the coastal districts of Balochistan, a number of detailed field visits were made to different sites in Gwadar and Lasbela Also the coping strategies being adopted by locals were observed. Interaction with communities was entertained to seek their indigenous knowledge and perception on climate change and the traditional practices adopted to adapt to arising adverse situations.

2.3. Analysis Phase The relevant literature of all the sectors was reviewed thoroughly to contextualize the impacts of climate change that are currently being witnessed in the study area. This activity involved’ reviewing key published papers, books and data to identify prominent issues, which are or will be affecting the environment, society and economy of the target districts of Gwadar and Lasbela. A thorough review was done of the all the collected information and literature on climate change. The scientific information of different variables was analyzed to be presented in graphical form. Graphs and charts were generated on the basis of available data from different sources to present a better understanding of the past trends of various meteorological parameters wherever possible. 2.4. Preparation of Final Report The final study report was prepared with title ‘Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan- Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations’. This report presents the mainly qualitative information and contains graphical representation of obtained data wherever possible. The field investigations have been adequately supported by pictures taken during the study.

Meeting of study team with fishermen at Damb, Sunmiani, district Lasbela

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Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan – Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations 19

Ship wreck industry in Lasbela District is a highly energy intensive operation. This expansive use of fuel is a major contributor to the country’s

emissions. Further, the hazardous waste generated from this industry causes severe damage to the local environment

Photos: Gadani, District Lasbela

Saadullah Ayaz. (IUCN, 2011)

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20 Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan – Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations

3 SECTOR WISE SITUATION ANALYSIS

This section presents an analysis of the prevailing situation in coastal districts of Balochistan. The following sectors and aspects were identified by the interviewed stakeholders along Balochistan’s coast as those most relevant to current changes and future climate change: a. Sectors contributing to Climate Change b. Water c. Agriculture d. Horticulture e. Rangelands and Livestock f. Forestry g. Marine biology/ Fisheries h. Climate Change Induced Disasters and Extreme Events i. Social sector

Extreme events are not a sector, however this aspect has been included as one section to discuss firstly the potential impacts across all other sectors and secondly since extreme events are likely to become stronger and more frequent with climate change. The following analysis presents the current situation and significance of these sectors in turn and also investigates interactions between them.

3.1. Sectors Contributing to Climate Change The coastal districts of Balochistan present a typical example of natural resource based economies, where the majority of people are dependent on marine fisheries. Besides those engaged in farming and livestock rearing practices, the area has a reasonable number of small to medium sized industrial units. These produce a significant amount of gaseous emissions as well as other waste and pollution. Also, significant carbon emissions arise from port operations and the fishing industry, where all of the fishing vessels run on diesel fuel. The third and also significant source of carbon emission is the ship-wreck industry, clustering in and around tehsil Gadani in Lasbela district. The fourth major source of carbon emission is deforestation, as fuel-wood is the only source of domestic fuel. Though exact inventories of greenhouse gas emissions from these sources are not available, it can be inferred that these emissions are not large on the global scale yet a significant contribution to Pakistan’s total emissions.

i. Industrial sector Total number of registered industrial units in district Lasbela is over 300, comprising mostly of small to medium sized entrepreneurs (SMEDA, 2008). These include cotton/polyester yarn and spinning, textile weaving, printing and dying, automobile engineering and assembly, steel and precision casting, steel re-rolling, light engineering, melamine powder and activated carbon manufacturing, block and pavement masonry, marble cutting and processing. Many consumer product industrial units process food and confectionery, pharmaceutical, beverages, salt refining, ceramic, toiletries and soap making, glass-ware, packaging and printing and electrical equipment manufacturing industry. All these industrial units are under the administrative control of Lasbela Industrial Estates Development Authority (LIEDA).

A brief account of industrial estates under LIEDA is presented below:

(i). Hub Industrial and Trading Estate (HITE) is located 18 kilometers west of Karachi and 11 kilometers from the Northern By-Pass Road at tehsil Hub and spreads over an area of 1189 acres. HITE was established in 1979. (ii). Marble City Gadani (MCG) is located at a distance of 25 kilometers from Karachi, 18 kilometers from the Northern By-pass Road on the main highway in tehsil Gaddani, District Lasbela. MCG covers a total area of 600 acres.

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(iii). Winder Industrial & Trading Estate (WITE)) is located at a distance of 80 kilometers from Karachi, 53 kilometers from the northern By-pass Road in Winder in tehsil Sonmiani, District Lasbela, with a total area of 230 acres. (iv). Special Industrial Zone (SIZ) is located 80 kilometers from Karachi S.I.TE and 53 kilometers from the northern By-pass Road and at winder in tehsil Sonmiani, District Lasbela, and has an area of 166 acres. (v). Uthal Industrial Estate (UIE) is located 133 Kilometers from Karachi and 107 Kilometers from the Northern By-pass Road at Uthal, which is the headquarter of District Lasbela. UIE has an area spreading over 2182 acres.

Local impacts of industrial emissions on health and ecology/environment No inventory of emission (both greenhouse gases, oxides of nitrogen and sulphur and particulate matters) from these industrial units has been undertaken. However, it is clear that the large number of industrial unit emit huge quantities of emissions, besides other type of solid and liquid toxic matter. These emissions not only have toxic effects on human and livestock health but considerable impacts on other ecosystems including agricultural crops, forest and rangeland species and wild animals.

The city of Lasbela is particularly facing problems of deteriorating air quality due to emissions from local industries, which arise from adjoining industrial units Uthal, Winder and Sonmiani. Likewise, Gadani experiences very high emissions mostly arising from the shipwreck industry, where huge quantities of acetylene gas (oxy-acetylene flame) is used for cutting of metal. Exposure of locals to increased emission, particularly carbon dioxide and particulate matter, cause acute health effects such as irritation of the eyes and respiratory tract, nausea, headaches and other symptoms (Canadian Centre for Occupational Health & Safety, 2011). These also cause general loss of quality of life and reduced visibility, dust or unpleasant smells. Residential exposure to industrial pollution forms only a small proportion of total exposure and is therefore difficult to quantify. Such intensive local impacts on health and ecology may impede the overall development process of the area. Besides, local air pollution has pronounced impacts on local climate patterns as it may cause reduction of total precipitation at a localized level. The increase in ‘acid rain’ and the potential reduction in overall rainfall are two important aspects of air pollution impacts. Both these effects can further enhance the lifetime of aerosols because increases in low-level inversion can increase the persistence of aerosol layers, and reduction in rainfall can decrease the washout of aerosols (Ramathan.,V et al., 2005). Such, phenomenon have not been studied for the coastal districts.

ii. Port Operations and Fishing Industry The coastal districts of Balochistan Province have a very intense ship and fishing boat traffic. The newly constructed Gwadar port receives cargo ships from far across the world. With further expansion of this port in the future the number of vessels is expected to increase accordingly. Also a number of ships are brought to Gadani port for wreckage.

Ocean-going vessels generally burn heavy bunker fuel oil. In addition to their propulsion engines, most of these vessels have auxiliary diesel engines which are used to produce electrical power for the ship. Auxiliary engines are generally run during the entire time that a ship remains at the dock.

Besides ships, tow boats, tugboats, and ferry boats are also sources of diesel particulate matter and gaseous emissions in the harbour vicinity. These vessels also use diesel engines both for propulsion and for auxiliary power. Port facilities use a variety of diesel equipment to unload dry cargo ships. The equipment used to load and unload containers is also diesel-powered.

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These marine vessels and associated port operations emit huge amounts of gases and particulate matter comprising of fine particles with diameter less than 2.5 mm (PM2.5) (Corbett et al. 2007). These emissions are therefore significant source of air pollution, including carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulphur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide (CO), (Corbett, J. J. and P. Fischbeck, 1997). In the coastal areas, large numbers of fishing boats congregate in a small area to go out to sea. Almost all of the fishing boats use diesel as primary fuel source. These days, most of the diesel fuel being used by the fishing industry is smuggled from Iran and is considered to be of very poor quality with higher sulphur content, which results in higher emissions of SO2 and CO. The fishermen are directly exposed to these emissions. The initial symptoms of CO poisoning may include headache, dizziness, drowsiness, or nausea. Symptoms may advance to vomiting, loss of consciousness, and collapse if prolonged or high exposures are encountered. Besides, the fishing boats use un-standardized engines for which no particular repair or maintenance schedule is followed. As a result, significant amount of oil leaks directly into water bodies, causing damage to aquatic life including marine fisheries.

iii. Ship-wreck industry, Gadani Gadani ship-wreck industry is the world's third largest of its kind in the World. The yard consists of 132 ship-breaking plots in tehsil Gadani, District Lasbela. The process of ship-breaking involves beaching the vessel at the yard, removing bunkers (fuel, diesel and lubricant), transferring lubricant and oil to a tanker for onward shipment, removing stored and loose items, removing wooden parts and finally dismantling the actual ship. This final stage includes the dismantling of machinery from the deck and engine room, and the cutting of the hull with gas torches. During the dismantling process, various gases are given off, while a significant amount of liquid and solid waste is also generated. The process of extracting parts of the wrecks releases wastes to the environment due to insufficiencies in the preparatory processes prior to the dismantling as well as the inadequacies of the open space. There is also an inability to collect, remove and secure hazardous substances on board or on the compound as such due to a lack of equipment, training and procedures. The dismantling takes part directly on the bare sand, where workers, wind and waves take toxins into the surrounding environment. Acetylene blowtorches are extensively used for cutting of metal, but no attention is paid to the large amount of fumes, smoke and particulates (including manganese, nickel, chromium, iron and lead) being generated. This creates large quantities of visible emissions, metal fumes and debris. The acetylene gas used for cutting metal in ship-wreck industry is itself very toxic. Sudden or slow leakages cause exposure of workers to increased concentration of acetylene. Short-term inhalation of acetylene causes dizziness, headache, weakness, nausea and vomiting. Exposure to high concentrations can lead to loss of consciousness and ultimately to death, though none such incident has ever been reported so far in Gadani. Emissions from the metal cutting process are also likely to contain air pollutants that may have toxic effects on workers. Fires and accidents are common, while the air is polluted, often causing breathing problems for the exposed labourers. This pollution has direct and immediate impacts on local environment and is contributing at an increasing rate to poor air quality. This air pollution harms human health, ecosystems, wildlife habitats and the quality of life of poor communities, and also has long-term impacts on global climate change.

Acetylene blow torches are extensively used for cutting ships, which releases very high emissions.

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iv. Deforestation Forests play a major role in the earth’s carbon cycle. Trees convert atmospheric carbon from CO2 into organic woody biomass as part of their respiratory process called photosynthesis. Trees then store the carbon. An increase in carbon storage is called sequestration. When forests are cut, not only does photosynthesis cease, but also the carbon is released into the atmosphere as CO2 as the wood is burned (fast release of carbon) or decays (slow release). Deforestation is an important factor in global climate change, contributing around 18% of all CO2 emissions, gloablly. Furthermore it is a root cause of loss of biodiversity, and of diminished water quality and quantity. The total forest area in District Gwadar is reported to be 16,220 ha for the years 2004-2005 out of which 8000 ha is in Gwadar, 4220 ha in tehsil Pasni and 4000 ha is in Pishukan. The forest cover in District Lasbela was 156,275 ha in 2004-2005 (SMEDA, Balochistan). This forest comprises both tropical thorn and mangrove forest area. Due to increasing population and poverty, massive forest cutting is on the rise. Local communities are highly depended on forest resources both for providing fodder for livestock and also to meet their energy demands. Massive amounts of firewood are also collected by local communities that are primarily used for construction of houses, huts and shelter for livestock. Though the exact estimates of annual deforestation are unknown, based on the observations, it is assumed that the annual rate of deforestation may be as high as 2 percent per annum. The mangrove forest are cut to provide fodder for livestock and to be used as fuel.

A natural mangrove forest in Dam Bandar, Lasbela. Scanty patches of heavily grazed mangrove trees can be seen.

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3.2. Water Sector: Current Status Water can be described as the most important natural commodity, particularly for the economies that totally rely of natural resources. Balochistan province is extremely poor in water resources, with further stress caused by an exponential increase in its demand. Studies suggest that the overall water demands in Balochistan province, both for domestic and agricultural use, have increased from 25 million cubic meters (mcm) in 1950 to about 525 million cubic meter in the year 2010 (Kahlown.,M.A and Abdullah.,M (2004).This demand for water supplies is much higher than its availability at present. As for the province, the coastal districts are also extremely short of fresh water resources. Water is received in form of precipitation, which in the area classified as ‘arid’ to ‘sub arid’ falls as low as zero over several months. The only source for surface water is direct rainfall, which in many places is collected in small ponds and artificially created lakes. A few dams have also been constructed to collect this precipitation water for domestic, agricultural as well as use for livestock. Some amount of water is also received in-directly as run-off through small streamlets (mostly perennial) from adjoining districts within small river basins. Therefore, ground water is the best available source of water supply in both Gwadar and Lasbela Districts. The coastal district of Balochistan province comprising three main river basins i.e. ‘Gwadar-Ormara’ basin (comprises of major part of Gwadar District), ‘Porlai river’ basin (comprises of major part of Lasbela District) and ‘Hub river’ basin that comprises of part of Lasbela District. Estimates of ground water available in these basins show that about 14.9 million cubic meter (mcm) of water is available in the Porlai River basin, out of which 74.6 mcm has been used leaving the budget only to 74.5 mcm. Similarly the available ground water in Hub River basin is 119.4 mcm, out of which about 59.6 mcm has been used, leaving the budget equivalent to 58.8 mcm. Also in the Hingol River basin the total available ground water is 259 mcm. In this basin, after using 132.7 mcm, the left-over water is equivalent to 132.3 mcm (Shahid.,B.A. and Ahmed.,S, 2008).

i. Impact of usage on Ground Water Resources The remaining available ground is extracted through installation of tube-wells and dug-wells, which is then stored in tanks for domestic use or directly to meet demands for extensive agricultural use. Due to the ever increasing demand for all type of water uses, the indiscriminate and un-planned use of groundwater resources with tube-wells has resulted in overexploitation in several valleys, leading to a steady fall in below-ground aquifers thus causing degradation of sub-surface water storage. No exact scientific estimates are available for actual reduction of ground water table in these two districts. However, as per field information collected during the survey, the fall in water table is estimated to have decreased by as much as 30-80 feet since the year 2000.

Mohammad Qayyum, a farmer in Mouza Qambar, tehsil Lakhra, District Lasbela reported a fall of 80 feet in the water table since the year 2000

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ii. Issues related to Water Sector a. The Government of Balochistan has given a subsidy on the installation of tube-wells for

agricultural use. Famers are permitted to install tube-wells wherever required. The electricity charges have been subsidized at Rs. 6000 per month (recently increased from Rs. 4000). A senior agriculture officer in Lasbela indicated that in his observations the water table has dropped from being at about 80 feet depth in the year 2000 to about 300 feet depth in most of the areas of the district in the year 2010. This practice has also given rise to issues related to water access for domestic, agricultural and livestock use. The more influential and financially stronger people tend to pump out larger amounts of water. This removes access of the weaker segment of farmers and other local tribes from accessing the underground water, who solely depend on the traditional Karez system and dug-wells, which have both almost completely dried up. In such a levoid situation, the locals who cannot afford electric tube-wells face acute water shortages; many of them have to travel miles to fetch water from dug wells. The women often spend much time daily to meet their bare minimum needs. This labor and time hinders rural women in Gwadar and Lasbela from taking care of their families and kids and gives rise to a range of gender related issues.

b. The Karez system of irrigation has been used over thousands of years to meet the demands for agriculture, which was a very effective indigenous technology to tap ground water. A typical Karez comprises of a series of vertically dug holes connected by a long underground tunnel. This collects ground water and delivers it to a down-slope end called a ‘day-light point”. This system proved to be very effective to meet water demands of people for agricultural use for centuries, as only the natural flow of water was tapped. Therefore, a Karez relies on a sufficient ground water for discharge and has thus also fallen victim of ground water depletion. During filed visits for almost all Karezes people reported a significant decline in the amount of water being discharged. Many others have completely dried up, posing great difficulties to local farmers.

c. The fast and progressively depleting ground water resources the coastal district of

Balochistan province are posing very serious socio-economic impacts on local communities. In many areas, it was observed that local rural residents have migrated to surrounding semi-urban areas, where water availability is comparatively good due to the service delivery by municipal authorities. Such migration poses additional burden to the local economy of these societies and may give rise to social issues. No survey has been conducted to estimate any statistical figures, but it is estimated that the number of such migrants would be in the thousands for the study districts.

Despite an effort to rehabilitate this Karez in village Kunar, teshil Bela of Lasbela District, its wells (box) have almost completely dried out

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d. The coastal districts of Balochistan face another quite daunting challenge of degrading water quality by increased salinization of under-ground water due to intrusion of sea water into aquifers. This results in the degradation of under-ground water quality making in quite unsuited for domestic consumption, use as portable water or for agriculture. This intrusion of sea water is attributed more to over consumption and pumping of underground water which has developed a negative gradient in the aquifers. As a result, the sea water has gradually intruded land inward. In opinion of scientists in research organizations (including the National Institute of Oceanography and Lasbela University and Karachi University) this intrusion is more attributed to the lower water gradient and less because of sea level rise, the latter not considered to be significant.

3.3. Agriculture Sector: Current Status The coastal districts of Balochistan province represent typical arid zones where rainfall is scarce and un-evenly distributed over the year. The availability of water for agricultural use is also scarce, thus agriculture is not a major source of livelihoods and does not significantly contribute to the local economy. The farming practices in these areas have evolved over centuries as a set of techniques and management practices for making best use of available moisture for crops. This is solely dependent of the amount of rainfall being received in the cropping season. Though not prevalent in the landscape, agriculture still provides subsistence to the majority of the population that depends on the locally available grain to cater for their nutritional needs. The current agricultural methods and techniques altogether depend on accurate (local) knowledge of the annual rainfall patterns over the area. As observed, in the overall scenario where water is scarce and where rainfall patterns are changing, the local agriculture of both the Gwadar and Lasbela districts has directly suffered as a consequence of these changes.

i. Agricultural Land-use According to figures used by Agriculture Statistics Balochistan, the total area under cultivation in 2009-2010 for all crops in district Gwadar was 2850 ha for both Rabbi and Karif crops. This figure includes only the irrigated agriculture, whereas the area under rain-fed agriculture in not assessed. The major crops are wheat, barley, mustard, cumin, gram, muttar pulse, masoor pulse, vegetable and fodder crops, though exact area under cultivation for each is not reported. The total annual production of crops was estimated to be 18,776 tones (for both Rabbi and Karif crops).

The Agriculture Statistics Balochistan 2009-2010 also reports that the total area under agriculture crops in district Lasbela was 32,567 ha under irrigated agriculture and only 846 ha under non-irrigated agriculture, making the total area in agricultural use 33,413 ha. The production on the irrigated area is estimated to be 225,434 tones, while that from non-irrigated land is only 528 tones. This total production of 225,962 tones comprises crops like wheat, barley, mustard, cumin, gram, muttar pulse, masoor pulse, vegetable and fodder crops, sunflower and safflower.

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ii. Agronomic practices The agronomic practices in the coastal district of Balochistan are characterized by a diversity of ways that have been developed and nurtured through many generations. These dry farming practices are particularly important because the available arid land used is extremely sensitive to the land management measures applied by farmers. Due to the lack of scientific methods for soil preparation and lack of access to climatic information, these practices cannot cope with relatively rapid changes in the natural environment. When agriculture continues to be practiced on such marginal lands, it can lead to degradation of soils and quality of the land. Erosion and degradation processes are more rapid when inappropriate dry farming agricultural practices are applied, thereby enhancing or speeding up desertification processes. The reasons leading to inappropriate practices are closely related to social and economic changes in the rural areas. Dry land farming practices have the objective of preparing the soil for the rainfall e.g. through tilling, so that it can store as much water as possible. During droughts, such prepared soil is left vulnerable to erosion by wind and storms, and also fires. The loss of the thin layer of fertile soil due to storms speeds up degradation processes.

iii. Irrigation Practices and Rain-fed Agriculture The irrigated agriculture in districts of Gwadar and Lasbela depends on underground water resources and direct rainfall, both of which have become scarce, as elaborated above. In most of the agricultural areas in both Gwadar and Lasbela districts, particularly those near to urban areas, tube wells are the sole source for irrigation water. In areas where electricity is not available the farmers use their tractors to pump water from tube wells. This extraction of ground water is not sustainable in the long run.

The traditional karez system of irrigation has been the sole traditional source of water for agricultural use that has been developed and managed by communities. However, the traditional system has fallen victim and a majority of the karezes have dried up altogether. This has severally impacted the traditional agriculture and in absence of any alternate source of water, many people, especially the poor and those without political influence on water management, see themselves forced to leave the land and to flee. Torrent-spate irrigation is a type of water management, which is unique to semi-arid environments and also practiced in vast areas of Balochistan where river systems exist. Thereby water from mountain catchments is diverted from river beds and spread over large areas. The structures developed for spate irrigation are sometimes quite large, including earthen bunds spanning the width of a river, or extensive spurs made of brushwood and stones. Spate systems are made in such a way that the largest floods are ideally kept away from the target area as they would create considerable damage. They would destroy flood diversion

This agricultural land in tehsil Lakhra has been prepared to make maximum use of rain water, leaving it highly exposed to wind erosion

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channels and cause rivers to shift. This is where the ingenuity of many of the traditional systems shows as the main diversion structures in the river break when floods are too big. Breaking of diversion structures also serves to maintain the flood water entitlements of downstream land owners. Spate systems in district Lasbela are worth mentioning, as there are several river systems in the district. Overall, these systems are very risk-prone due to the unpredictable nature of the floods and the frequent changes to the river beds from which the water is diverted. It is often the poorest segments of the rural population whose livelihood and food security depends on the spate flows. Substantial local wisdom has developed in organizing spate systems and in managing both the flood water and the heavy sediment loads that come with it.

iv. Related Issues to Agriculture Sector

a. The coastal districts of Balochistan are poor in resources on the land. The level of education is low. This is coupled with weak institutional services for framers to adopt scientific and mechanized practices. These labor intensive methods are not able to help the agriculture sector in producing enough to meet every increasing demands of food and other agricultural produce.

b. The famers make use of centuries-old methods of farming, relying on traditional knowledge. The famers complain that their traditional knowledge about weather systems, particularly rains, has become totally uncertain as the weather and climate patterns appear to have changed. The farmers are not in a position to predict the abrupt changes in climate, thus putting their crops at stake and to mercy of rains.

c. Due to un-sustainable exploitation in many areas, particularly in district Lasbela, has resulted in drying-up or significant decline of traditional karez system on irrigation.

d. As reported by local farmers, there used to be a rainy season that started in November

and lasted till March. This was called ‘Hangaam’ in the local language. Farmers used to sow wheat and other winter crops during this season. This season has gradually changed in past about 30 years to altogether not being the rainy season it was. As a consequence, the rain-fed agriculture has been abandoned in most of the parts of Gwadar.

e. The low prices of dry farming products and competition from other parts of the country

make it increasingly difficult for farmers to maintain adequate incomes. Farmers in district Lasbela tend to adopt cultivation of more profitable crops, even though the soil conditions are not suitable or and water availability is not adequate.

The torrent-spate irrigation structure on Washat Dhora stream in Mouza Por Bhambore, tehsil Lakhra in District Lasbela has been developed by locals on self help basis. This structure is made from locally available materials and totally depends on uncertain rainfall

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f. The above is an example of irrational (i.e. unplanned), autonomous (i.e. unguided) coping trials by farmers in the agricultural sector along Balochistan’s coasts. However, this example give rise to issues related to further degradation of water resources as the crops often have even higher demands for water, or in other cases may not be well suited to dry spells, etc.

3.4. Horticulture Sector: Current Status The dry climate of Balochistan’s coastal districts does not lend itself well for prime fruit production areas. Horticultural production is a valuable part of the rural economy in both the coastal districts of Balochistan. A significant proportion of horticultural holdings, both large and small scale, traditional and organic, are dependent on irrigation to provide a continuous supplies of high quality produce. Extreme weather events can be highly destructive for horticulture industry. Hailstorms can cause extensive damage to plants, especially when they fall on soft, young, summer growth. Storm force winds can also cause extensive damage. Not only these impacts have been experienced in the sector, but also a change in crop pests.

i. Major Horticulture Produce Gwadar district has very low fruit production. As per data provided by Agriculture Statistics of Balochistan (2009-10), he total area under fruit cultivation in Gwadar is 2782 ha, which, however, comprises both currently productive and non-productive area (dates 1870 ha, mangoes 538 ha and citrus about 123 ha). The total production of fruits is equivalent to 17997

Such autonomous trail of planting sugarcane by a local farmer in tehsil Lakhra in district Lasbela poses new challenges to the agriculture sector. This highly water intensive crop will have severe consequences for the already scarce irrigation water.

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tones (dates 10846 tones, Mangoes 4881 tones and citrus 838 tones). Other less significant fruits are banana, coconut, chikoo, papaya, guava and loquat.

Lasbela district has comparatively more access to irrigation water, which makes it a better area for fruit production. The total area under fruit cultivation in this district is 3409 ha, again of productive and non-productive area (coconut 1038 ha, papaya 817 ha, chikoo 508 ha, banana 331 ha, mangoes 207 ha and citrus 141 ha). The fruit production is estimated to be for coconut 9576 tones, banana 6959 tones, papaya 5134 tones, mangoes 1824 tones and citrus 8858 tones (Agriculture statistics of Balochistan 2009-10).

ii. Issues related to the Horticulture Sector a. Sensitive to changing weather patterns, the horticulture sector is already severely

impacted by the experienced changes. The prevailing water scarcity coupled with abrupt swings in temperature has altered the physiology and thereby productivity of fruit trees.

b. The poor choice of horticultural crops by farmers greatly contributes to the experienced vulnerability. The choice of planting banana is one such example, which yields good produce per area. This has greatly encouraged farmers to grow banana on vast areas. The banana crop requires water intensive irrigation practices like ‘flooding type irrigation’. As a result, huge amounts of water are wasted, which could otherwise be used for production of alternate crops which are most conducive to the area and also deliver market value.

c. The relevant government functionaries have conducted trials to test and introduce the fruit species best ecologically suited to the areas and producing best results for the area. However, much less focus has been given to selected trial crops and sites for conducting these trials. As a result, almost all the demo farms that were visited resulted in failure to deliver results. This has greatly discouraged farmers to adopt scientifically selected fruit crops and left them sticking to their traditional and/or maladapted, water intensive fruit farming practices.

This banana farm in tehsil Lakhra in Lasbela in being flooded by water obtained from tube-wells. Such practice deprives other poorer locals from their basic ability to access water.

Trial with coconuts conducted by the Agriculture Extension Department, Lasbela has resulted in total failure, discouraging farmers to adopt scientifically selected fruit crops.

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3.5. Forestry Sector: Current Status The dry and extreme climate of both of Balochistan’s coastal districts is a limiting factor for growth of thick forest. The vegetation is rather suitable for sparse desert vegetation and rangelands. The vegetation in both the Gwadar and Lasbela districts is very scarce and consists of individual shrubs. The woody, thorny, under-growth shrubs are usually not above thirty centimeters in height and have few leaves with stiff and prickly branches. Solitary patches of shrubs and trees are found in areas where sufficient water is available, either in form of irrigation water or in riparian zones.

i. Forest Vegetation of coastal districts The districts of Gwadar and Lasbela are not predominantly forested areas. An unpublished report by the United Nations reports an area of 159,120 hectares under forest cover in Lasbela District, which is 13 percent of its total geographical area. Forest cover in Gwadar is not reported anywhere. The forest vegetation in both coastal districts is dominated by Prosopis juliflora and P. cineraria, which grows where adequate water and soil are available. Scattered trees of Acacia modesta are seen more commonly. Solitary tress of A. modesta are found particularly around water bodies and agricultural areas, where sufficient moisture is retained. Furthermore, Salvadora olieidies is found in solitary patches in the area. Phoenix dactlyifera (date palm) is also common. Other forest vegetation includes Fraxinus xanthoxyloides (Ash) and Morus Alba (Mulbery). Olea ferruginea (Olive) is rarely found on least disturbed areas that are protected from grazing by livestock. Salix tetrasperma (Willow) was found around water bodies. Tamarix gallica is scattered all over the district even on disturbed and grazed area. Some solitary bushy-trees of Capparis aphylla can also be seen. Forests in these areas are an integral part of the ecology and economy. They play a very vital role in the livelihood of the people by providing timber, fuel-wood and fodder for sustenance of lives and livestock. These resources are degrading due to over-exploitation and unsustainable practices. Towards southern parts of both the districts typical coastal forest types are commonly found in the areas of Sonmiani, Kalmat and Gawatar Bay in Balochistan. The total are under mangrove cover is about 406086 ha, that includes Miani Hor 3431.86 ha, Kalmat Hor 196 ha, and Jiwani 433 ha (Qureshi., M.T, 2005). In Lasbela, a large chunk of mangrove forest is found in Miani Hoor, in tehsil Sonmiani in the eastern-most part the district. It is the only place along the coast of Pakistan where three species of mangroves Avicennia marina, Ceriops tagal and Rhizophora mucronata exist naturally (Amjad., A.S and Jusoff.,K, 2007) Beside their ecological importance the mangrove forests play a very significant role in the lives of coastal dwellers. People who live along the coast utilize this resource for fuel, construction of houses and fodder. Mangrove forest has a great economic and ecological significance. It is the habitat of a diverse community of organisms ranging from bacteria and fungi to fish, shrimps, birds, reptiles and mammals (WWF, 2005), whereby again providing very important products and services for the adjacent communities’ livelihoods.

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Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan – Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations 33

The districts of Gwadar and Lasbela have been classified as part of ‘southern rangelands’ in Balochistan, along with districts of Khuzdar, Chagai, Khanar, Panjgur and Turbat. These rangelands cover 62% of the areas of Balochistan province and yet include only 23.5% of the livestock population. The rangelands have poor range conditions, with fodder production capacity of 30-50 kg/ha. (FAO, 1983). The valleys of Kulanch and Dasht are the major, despite small, ruminant raising areas in Gwadar District (SMEDA). Rangeland and livestock production both contributes to and is affected by climate change. In addition to the physiological effects of higher temperatures on individual animals and range plant species, the consequences of climate change are likely to include increased risk that rare breeds will be more affected by disturbances. Indirect effects may be felt via ecosystem changes that alter the distribution of animal diseases or affect the supply of feed (Hoffmann., I 2010). Climate change may also increase the risk of diseases including vector borne diseases. Heat stress is known to alter the physiology of livestock, reduce male and female reproduction and production, and increase mortality. Livestock water requirements increase with temperature. Heat stress suppresses appetite and feed intake, thereby hampering growth. On the other hand ruminants, especially cattle, produce large amounts of methane through their digestion. Methane is a highly potent climate forcer, thereby contributing to cause climate change.

i. Rangeland and Livestock Facts Limited information is available on rangeland and livestock resources of the coastal districts. The range vegetation is almost similar in both the districts that predominantly comprises of the following grasses Chrysopogon aucheri, C. fallax, C. latifolius, Cymbopogon jwarancusa, Pennisetum orientale and Saccharum griffithii. Other herb and shrub species include

Rangeland Condition Map of Balochistan Source: Ahmad. S and Islam M. 2008

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34 Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan – Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations

Caragana ambigua, Stocksia brahvica, Berberis balochistanica, Prunus eburnean, Atriplex sp. Haloxylon grifithii, Haloxylon salicornicum, Astragalus trichocarpus, Calligonum polygonoides and Serriphedium quettensi.

The majority of households in the hinterland keep goats, being easily manageable as they forage for rearing. The livestock data in the coastal districts of Balochistan is not reliable as different sources report varying statistics. Livestock population of the district as reported in the Balochistan Agriculture Census 2000 comprise of a total of 71,591 animal heads that include 2,029 cattle, 66,201 small ruminants and 3,352 pack animals. In any case, the number of livestock can be considered to be far greater than what could be sustained by 15,545 hectares of reported rangeland (IUCN, 2005 unpublished).

ii. Issues in the Rangeland/Livestock Sector a. Rangeland and livestock related problems in Gwadar and Lasbela are diverse and

complex. The sparse rangelands are open and no one feels responsible for their management. Rangeland ownership is not clear or very poorly defined. There are four major land ownership systems i.e., individual ownership, tribal claims, community ownership and state ownership. Though no exact estimates are available, it is believed that less than 2% of range areas are under administrative control of the Forest Department and that the rest belongs to different groups of the Provincial state. As a result, the grazers compete for land and fertile pastures in an unregulated manner, which results in overuse and degradation of rangeland areas.

b. Local breeds of cattle and small ruminants that are kept and bred in these districts perform well scavenging on poor quality roughages and moving on rugged terrain. These highly resistant and well adapted breeds are suitable for further use in adaption to climate change. However, these livestock breeds have lower productivity and cannot sufficiently cater for the needs of all local people.

c. The rangelands in the coastal districts of Balochistan are facing extreme aridity due to

change in rain-fall patterns and water regimes in the area. This aridity coupled with over-grazing exerts extreme pressure on the land, vegetation and its inhabitants, such as wild life, farmed livestock and pastoral communities. As a result, more palatable grasses, legumes, herbs, shrubs, and trees that once covered the rangelands have been destroyed, or thinned out. Therefore, each year during the dry period inadequate forage combined with other drought stresses causes heavy losses of livestock. The degradation of rangelands includes changes in composition of desirable plant species, a decrease in rangeland diversity and productivity, reduction of perennial plant cover, and soil erosion. Perennial grasses like Chrysopogon aucheri and Cymbopogon jwarancusa can now only found in few protected range areas. Similarly, many desirable shrub species such as Caragana ambigua, Stocksia brahvica, Berberis balochistanica, Prunus eburnea have been replaced by Haloxylon grifithii and other un-palatable species.

3.7. Fisheries and Marine Biological Resources The vast coastal belt of Gwadar and Lasbela is rich in both living and non-living resources. The physiography is also very diverse, ranging from desert sand dunes, agricultural areas and rocky shores, to deep estuaries, lagoons and deltas. These coastal areas are highly productive ecosystems

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that also play important roles in the productivity of these near-shore environments. A multitude of stakeholders depend on these ecosystems by relying on fisheries and the associated industries. Recently coral reefs have been discovered on the Daraan and Gunz coasts of Balochistan, which added to the ecological importance of the coastal areas of province. To date, no quantification has been done to analyzes the economic and developmental significance of the coastal areas of Balochistan. Asani (2003) reported that the coastal areas of Balochistan province employed 37,000 fishermen on 5,672 fishing boats. The total fish catch was estimate to be 112,642 tonnes in different sites in the districts Gwadar and Lasbela in the whole year 2005 (USAID, 2005), details of which are presented in Table # below.

Fish catch per landing site in district Gwadar

Area Volume (Tones) % decline

Year-2004 Year-2005

Gwadar 33,707 29,252 -13

Pasni 27,692 24,775 -11

Ormara 15,876 14,813 -7

Jiwani 12,714 12,192 -4

Samb 12,128 11,177 -8

Surbandar 8,219 7,533 -7

Pishukan 8,103 7,272 -8

Gadani 5,315 5,318 -16

Total 124,755 112,642 -10

Source: USAID, Ministry of Finance, Government of Pakistan, 2005

Coastal areas are an interface between the terrestrial and marine environment where multiple dynamic interactions among atmospheric, terrestrial and aquatic systems take place. This exposes them to a wide variety of human and natural stresses and they are affected by climate through a number of direct and indirect pathways. The coastal areas of Balochistan abode one of the most unique features, which are coral reefs. These not only support enormous biodiversity, but are also of immense commercial value. Coral reefs are harvest sites as well as nurseries for commercial species harvested elsewhere around these. These reef ecosystems also play a significant role in helping maintain the resilience, stability, and protection of the coast line from natural and anthropogenic disturbances. As coastal areas form the face of interaction with surrounding environments, they are exposed to a wide range of potential environmental influences, such as temperature changes around estuaries, impacts of sea-level rise, availability of water from precipitation and runoff, and wind patterns. Special threats to these ecosystems are often in form of physical destruction and pollution of habitats from land-based and marine sources as a consequence of economic development.

i. Changes observed to Marine and Coastal Resources a. During interviews with the fishermen communities all along the coastal belt of

Balochistan, it has been reported that many of this fish species have disappeared. Some of them were of very large commercial importance because of their high demand. One of such was reported to be the ‘Palla’ fish (Tenualosa ilisha). Palla fish has a migratory behavior, which is triggered by the flow of fresh water from the inland rivers. With an

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36 Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan – Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations

increase in drought and associated decline in fresh water flow to the sea, the habitat for Pall has been significantly altered, resulting in fast decline of this species in coastal waters before Balochistan. Other such reporting is of ‘Sua’ fish (Protonibea diachanthus), which was once a major catch and most significant commercial commodity during the summer monsoon months. Fishermen reported that the Sua catch has declined to less than a half of what it was 10 years ago. The Sua fish migrates in-shore to spawn. These water bodies are severely altered by drought and pollutants. The large-scale destruction of mangroves is also believed to be one of the reasons for the decline in catch. Mangroves are the nursery grounds, where the larval growth and development of Sua takes place. Based on a survey conducted by experts from WWF in the Kalamat Khor area, West of Omara, USAID in 2005 reported a huge decline in the number of fish species, while some are reported to have disappeared from the area altogether. The indicative figures are as follow in Table.

Numer of fish species observed in 1996 and 2005 in Kalamt Khor, Ormara, district Gwadar

Local Name of Fish No. of Species observed

1995 2005

Paplet 200 10

Mushka 300-400 40-50

Chota Mangra 200 20-30

Ghalo 200 Extinct

Kunn 500 100

Sonab 40-50 10

Kaka Torr 100-200 Extinct

Khir Soota 10-15 Extinct

Patin 200 50

Pagaas 6-7 Extinct

Gerk 20-30 Extinct

Source: USAID, Ministry of Finance, Government of Pakistan, 2005

Such reports correlate with reporting for this study and with studies from other parts of the world. Scientific research explains that as temperature changes can alter the geographical distribution of species (including commercial fish), creating new combinations of species that will interact in unpredictable ways. Species that are unable to migrate or compete for resources with other species may face local extinction (Kennedy.,V.S et al 2002).

b. The coral reef recently discovered off the coast of Gwadar district is considered to have significant ecological value. This unique feature is also a habitat to many commercially important species including fish, prawns and crabs. These reefs, their value and stresses experienced have not studied at all. The surveys conducted by Pakistan Wetlands Programme in 2010 have reported an increase in deep sea coral species including Leptastrea pruinosa (spotted coral), Favites flexuosa (stony coral) and Hydnophora microconos. The expert opinion sought attributes this un-usual behavior to the slight increase in warm water currents, which bring more

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nutrition and offer optimum growth conditions. However any further increase would likely be fatal for the coral population along the Balochistan coast.

d. In the recent past, several incidents of algal bloom were observed along coastal areas of Balochistan. Once such of algae Prorocentrum minimum was reported for Gwadar Bay. Other events of bloom of dinoflagellates such as the potentially toxic Noctiluca Scintillans (green sea sparkle) have also been reported. Many of the seaweed species including Sargassum sp. and Spatoglossum asperum have also been reported along Balochistan coast. Harmful algal bloom has been observed to cause adverse effects to varying species of marine mammals and sea turtles and causes considerable aesthetic pollution as well. In the last few years, several incidences of mass-mortality of fishes have been recorded in the marine coastal environment of Balochistan, potentially because of toxic algal blooms (Rabbani.,et.al 1990). The bloom of species like Sargassum sp. and Spatoglossum sp. exert stress on mangrove seedlings. These algal blooms grow profusely and cover the seedlings stopping their growth partially or completely and causing mortality on large scale, thereby also degrading habitat of marine fauna including commercial fish (IUCN, 2005).

ii. Issues related to Marine Ecology a. Due to increases in competition for scarce marine resources including commercial

catch, the fishermen in coastal areas of Balochistan have adopted a number of un-sustainable and destructive fishing techniques. Near-shore fishing grounds are the most heavily exploited. The competition for fish catch continues to increase and intensify, resulting in the rapid depletion of the resources, in the destruction of ecosystems and fish habitats and in diminishing economic returns.

The main causes of this over-exploitation, beside natural disasters, are poverty and the pressures of economic development at local to global scales. Economic gains, many of which bring only short-term benefits, are being made at the expense of the integrity of ecosystems and the vulnerable communities that they support. The overexploitation of offshore fisheries impacts on the food security of coastal populations.

b. The fish resources are open, unrestricted and in most cases, unregulated. The local

fisheries’ administrations lack the capability and capacity to manage fisheries on a sustainable basis. Monitoring, control and surveillance are virtually non-existent or extremely ineffective. Poor administrative control over marine fisheries in Balochistan has given rise to a series of problems of profound and disastrous consequences. The illegal fishing

Sea weed bloom in coastal areas pose physical threat to juvenile mangrove plantation

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38 Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan – Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations

practices include highly destructive fishing gears, methods and techniques by small-scale fishers. Such examples include the use of ‘Gujja’ and ‘Wire net’, which have a very small mesh size. The use of these illegal nets is disastrous for juvenile and immature fish. Shrimp constitute the bulk of the catch and cause depletion of fish population and decline in number of other marine species.

c. Green turtle (Chelonia mydas) is one of the commercially significant marine species found along Balochistan’s coast. The turtle breeds along sandy shores in areas easily accessible to the turtle and protected from human disturbances. Like all other animal species, the turtle population has shown marked disturbance due to alterations to its habitat. Observations have shown that a turtle nest on dynamic, erosion-prone beaches is a threat to clutch survival. In some cases a total loss of the clutch has been observed, where none of the eggs were able to hatch. Local interpretations attribute such a loss primarily to alterations in temperatures.

Use of illegal Gujja net is disastrous for juvenile fish. Fishermen (box) preparing Gujja in Dhamb, district Lasbela for catch

The eggs of Green Turtle have been wasted, with all hatchlings dead on Daran Beach in Gwadar. This has primarily been attributed to change in incubation temperature

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d. With increases in market demand for fish, a number of industrial fish vessels are

engaged in exploiting these resources. As the small-scale fisheries are highly dynamic and usually well integrated with local marketing arrangements, the commercial vessels are more mechanized and market driven.

There is ample local reporting of large-scale industrial fishing vessels operating illegally in fishing zones along coast of Balochistan. The industrial fishing vessels are often encroaching in small scale fishing grounds and they are known to use fishing nets whose mesh sizes are far smaller than the legislated mesh size. The commercial trolling method catches anything that comes their way, including immature fish. Thereby the fish are not able to reproduce even once in their lifetime, and this affects future stock.

These illegal fishing practices have a huge negative impact both on the resources and on the small-scale fishers who due to their lack of mechanization are the likely losers in any competition for the resources. Commercial fishing is of great social and economic significance in contrast to large industrial operators whose activities are purely and solely commercial.

e. There are several issues related to environmental degradation in the coastal districts

of Balochistan. These have direct, adverse impacts on the health of the ecosystems and hamper their productivity as well as degrade ecological values of these ecosystems. The growing trade through port of Gwadar poses severe threats to the coastal environment as detailed above. The port development activities, as well as industrial activities such as on and around Gadani, have also accelerated the degradation of coastal environmental qualities, the depletion of coastal resources, public health risks and the loss of bio-diversity.

Oil leakage from fish boats is a major source of marine pollution

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40 Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan – Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations

3.8. Disasters and Extreme Weather Events The effects of climate change on weather patterns can be related to the observed increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events and weather-related disasters. Human-induced climate change has the potential to alter the likelihood and severity of extremes events (US EPA). Extreme hydro-meteorological weather events can be directly attributed to changes in climate system. These could further amplify secondary effects or events like droughts and flooding (Thompkins., H, 2001). Natural disasters are an outcome of the combination of hydro-meteorological event and man-made effects and vulnerabilities (see also ISDR, 2009). Hydro-meteorological disasters include rapid onset types, such as floods, as much as slow-onset types, such as droughts and desertification. Many of these phenomena are closely interrelated, and in some cases they may be induced, triggered or amplified by human activities. Climate change may alter the hydro-meteorological patterns of an area, favoring the likelihood of such disaster incidents, which in turn may enhance each other in terms of domino effects (Andreadakis., Emm et.al 2008). On the other hand, human activities and structures influence the experienced vulnerabilities towards such disasters. Weather related events can be classified as extreme through various factors such as the level of economic impact from the event (insurance costs), of social impact (loss of life and livelihoods) and of environmental impacts (destruction of habitat). The damage resulting from extreme weather events already imposes a heavy toll on Pakistan’s society and economy (MunichRe, 2011).

i. Vulnerability of Balochistan’s Coastal districts to climate change induced disasters

Coastal districts of Balochistan are different from the rest of the country not only because of its unique geo-physical setting but also for different sociopolitical characteristics that often limit people’s access to endowed resources and perpetuate risk and vulnerabilities. These areas are considered at extreme risk from climate change induced hydro-meteorological disasters due to the intricate relationship between the social and the ecological fabric in the coastal areas. The frequent incidents of such events jeopardize the natural resource utilization and thus directly impact the social fabric of the people living in these areas. Both the coastal districts of Gwadar and Lasbela have witnessed a number of such extreme events in the recent past, an account of which is presented in the following section.

a. Cyclones The coastal districts of Balochistan province have witness a number of cyclonic incidents in the recent past. Cyclone Gonu (2007), Yemin (2007) and Phet (2010) are notable among these. The cyclone Gonu (also known as ‘Super Cyclonic Storm Gonu’) was the strongest tropical cyclone on record in the Arabian Sea. It struck parts of district Gwadar on June 04, 2007, causing strong gusty winds and heavy rains along the coastal areas of the district. At least three houses and one school were reportedly destroyed and 210 anchored fishing boats were badly damaged in the coastal town of Sur Bandar in Gwadar. Vast areas along the coast were eroded and swept away, thus altering the local physiography and ecology.

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Cyclonic Storm Yemyin (also referred to Tropical Cyclone 03B) made its second landfall on June 26, 2007 along the Makran coast, near Ormara and Pasni in district Gwadar. At least 380 people died in Balochistan. The subsequent flooding and rains made 250,000 people homeless and a further 300,000 displaced (International Federal of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, 2007). The cyclone Phet hit major parts of Gwadar districts (Jiwani and Pasni) in May and June, 2010. Under the influence of this low-pressure system, extremely heavy rainfall occurred over the coastal areas of Balochistan (Gwadar 370 mm, Jiwani 208 mm, Pasni 139 mm) accompanied with very strong wind gusting to 120 km/hour. The area experienced the highest recorded rainfall of 133 millimeters on June 4, 2010. The toll of people affected was reported to be 18,700 in Gwadar and 28,600 in Lasbela district. About 40 villages were flooded and the coastal highway at many points between Karachi and Gwadar was washed away (Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, 2010).

b. Droughts Drought is a period of abnormally dry weather sufficiently prolonged due to the lack of precipitation to cause a serious hydrological imbalance (IPCC, 2007) .The main characteristic of a drought is a decrease of water availability in a particular period and over a particular area. Because of its physiography, hydrological droughts are a continuous attribute of the Balochistan Province. A well marked drought condition prevailed in Balochistan for decades, with the most severe spell lasting from 1996 to 2004 in most parts of the province including the coastal districts, where it was regarded as the worst in the last 75 years. It was considered as a major factor behind slowing the economic growth rate down to 2.6 % during that period (Board of Revenue, Government of Balochistan). Based upon the ranking with the World Food Programme’s scoring key, the severity of droughts in Gwadar was rated to be very-low, while is Lasbela it was regarded as medium. Gwadar was rated to be seventh district most severely affected by drought in the province, while Lasbela was the fifth district most severely affected. Reduced crop, rangeland and forest productivity, dropped water levels, increased livestock and wildlife mortality rates are some examples of the directly affected aspects in this historical drought.

Prevailing drought conditions in Balochistan province also pose severe challenges to already stressed coastal ecosystems. Increase in drought intensity or frequency increases salinization in coastal areas due to reduced inflows of fresh water and intruding sea water. This results in the decline of valuable habitats on the coasts and in riparian areas, as well as their resource productivity.

Damage caused by Cyclone Phet-2010 to the newly raised mangrove plantation in Ankara creek in district Gwadar over an area of more than 10 acres

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42 Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan – Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations

c. Floods The coastal districts of Balochistan have always been prone to flash floods caused by torrential rains during monsoon (see also Mirza, 2011). Small dams and reservoirs usually over spill during this season, causing havoc to people, livelihoods and property located downstream. One such example is Shadikor dam near Pasni in district Gwadar. Its collapse led to flooding that left tens of thousands homeless, destroyed hundreds of acres of agricultural land, and caused massive damage to infrastructure. In 2007, heavy rains damaged more than 40% of health facilities in Lasbela district. Heavy rains in the past have washed away sections of the Makran Coastal Highway, a major transport link, as well as destroying numerous roads and bridges. Telephone and power networks have also been severely disrupted. Not only is critical infrastructure destroyed in such extreme downpour but it presents a missed opportunity to capture the much-needed water resource for productive use. d. Sea level rise Sea level rise is an unstoppable, cumulative effect of the climate change, due to a combination of thermal expansion and melting of the poles. The rate of sea level rise across the coasts of Pakistan is estimated to be 1.1 millimeter per year. With this rate the total rise on sea level along coast of Pakistan (Sindh and Balochistan) will be 50 cm in next fifty years (Khan.,T. M. A and Rabbani., M. M, 2002). With this rate, it is inferred that the direct impacts due to climate change induced sea level rise would be relatively significant even in the short run. Not only would vast low-lying land areas be taken in by the sea, thus causing direct damage to land and property and inundating coastal environments, but also the negative effects of storm surges and waves would have higher negative effects on the coasts, including higher erosion and causing coastal flooding.

e. Erosion of sea shore Rocky cliffs and headlands as prominent in Jiwani, Pisukan, Gawadar, Rasjaddi in Ormara are particularly susceptible to coastal erosion (SMEDA, 2008). Coastal erosion is the wearing down of the coastline by the forces of wind and water. It can happen gradually, due to the action of waves and currents over many years, or very rapidly, from hurricanes and other large storms.

Flooding in Gwadar in year-2007 an un-expected hail storm in the same year

Gradual rise in level of sea, which amplifies storm surge, claimed land and property at a vast area in Damb, Sonmiani, district Lasbela

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Coastal erosion poses a threat to man-made structures and can also cause serious destruction. Coastal erosion can lead to catastrophic slides in which whole engineered structures fall into the ocean. As a coastline is worn away, as a process that is often accelerated by deforestation, storm surges and tidal waves reach further and further inland, threatening structures and physiography. Such events as consequences of coastal erosion have been observed in Gwadar at Gurab and Peshkan, where large land areas have been washed away be action of sea. However, the risk involved requires better understanding and estimation. Ecologically, the biggest problem associated with coastal erosion is the increased turbidity of coastal water. Turbidity refers to the amount of sediment suspended in the water. Turbid waters are murky, and light cannot penetrate as far down. It therefore reduces photosynthesis in the water, which in turn leads to lower levels of dissolved oxygen, sometimes to the point of impacting fish and plant survival. Coastal erosion can deposit large amounts of soil into coastal waters. This soil may bring with it large quantities of man-made fertilizers and pesticides. These chemicals cause rapid, uncontrolled growth of algae. Algal blooms further increase turbidity, clouding the water so that sunlight does not penetrate far enough to sustain the normal coastal ecosystem (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, 2001). Such impacts are reported also for Balochistan, however the correlations there need scientific validation and scrutiny. f. Shifting sand dunes A recent phenomenon observed in the coastal areas of Balochistan is shifting sand dunes along the shore. These areas are characterized by low and sporadic rainfall, high temperature, low humidity, and a high evaporation rate in the hinterland. These geographic and climatic attributes, confounded by human activities that decrease the ground (vegetative) cover and increase land degradation, increase the possibility for wind to pick up, dislocate, transport and deposit loose sand particles for the process of shifting sand dunes. Various scientific studies relate the formation, dislocation and expansion of sand dunes along coastal areas to sea level rise and changes in wind circulation patterns. It is scientifically recognized that the formation of sand dunes is rapid when wind attains a velocity of 25-30 km/hr (Akram., M and Abdullah., M, 1989). The increase in wind speed to this level increases wind friction, frequency and direction to sand transport. The increase in wind power is negatively correlated with precipitation, and precipitation is negatively correlated with the difference between land and sea surface temperatures. Therefore, it is possible that climate change will alter the patterns of dune formation in the long term.

Sea has taken away approximately 20 feet of shore-line in Peshkhan. This change in physiography has also impacted livelihoods of the fishermen

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44

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Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan – Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations 45

(temperature, precipitation) and disasters, due to the location of residence and livelihoods, the timing of the event and similar functions. As third element of vulnerability, adaptive capacity includes, amongst others, people’s and communities social structures and strength of networks, support systems (traditional, but also e.g. insurance), savings, knowledge and anticipation of changes, early warning systems and government support services.

i. Changing Livelihoods and Social Instability Traditionally, the coastal communities in both Lasbela and Gwadar have been engaged in fishing since times un-known. From childhood, basic training of catch, fish processing and marketing is provided by the elders. Most people engaged in this complex fishing livelihood do so as a full-time job, without other alternatives. Very few are engaged in fishing on a seasonal basis, and an almost negligible number of locals practice it along with subsistence farming. Therefore, there is little diversification of livelihoods practiced to date. Fishing contributes to the livelihood of coastal communities in a range of ways: either directly as food, or as a source of income from wage-labour in the fisheries sector. Beyond the food, employment and financial benefits, there can be significant social and cultural outcomes attached to fishing, from which even the wider communities benefit. Fishing is rarely carried out alone and is often a very social activity, strengthening bonds between people and community cohesion. With significant reduction in the catch due to sea water (temperature) changes, habitat degradation as associated changes, the livelihoods of the coastal communities are strongly impacted. Realizing a decline in the available fish stocks, a large majority of the fishermen see themselves forced to change their professions. Such a mass-scale shift away from their traditional livelihoods, have implications not only for the fishing industry but also on the security situation as the social fabric is affected.

Further in-land areas, where the economy depends mainly on agriculture and livestock, face similar challenges. With a drastic decline in available water, many of the inhabitants are forced to move to other locations, where they expect more resources to be available. Some of these migrations are towards urban areas, which is posing additional burden to urban centers

Climate variability and change can also alter the demands that local institutions forming the basis of resource management, specifically property rights, have to deal with. At the local level, incidences have been reported where shifts in patterns of resource availability and displacements of fisheries stocks have spurred conflicts over property rights and resource access.

Half of the residents (number estimated to be 3000) of village Haji Abdullah in tehsil Lakhra, Lasbela have migrated due to drying out of Purlai river (as shown in the inserted box)

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46 Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan – Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations

ii. Equity and Inequality The changes in resource availability are increasing the issues related to equity and inequality, expressed in such aspects as access to resources, rights to resources, access to the benefits of the resources, etc.. Social structure and resource-use patterns form part of the differing vulnerabilities of individuals and groups towards the impacts of climate change. People who directly rely upon natural resources to meet their subsistence are the ones most directly affected. The poor people in Gwadar and Lasbela mostly rely on natural resources to meet their livelihoods demands either from marine fishing or land based resources that includes agriculture, forestry and associated rangelands. However, the sensitivities can be further differentiated along their roles and responsibilities in access to natural resources. The issues related to increased inequality and inequity in using natural resources and entitlements to their benefits in Gwadar and Lasbela already loom large, being further aggregated by the challenges posed by the climate. With increased scarcity of available resource, the access to basic, minimum needs for survival are also being challenged. A particular example is potable water, as the poor find it most challenging to access this basic requirement.

iii. Gender Issues The impacts of climate change are un-evenly distributed across the genders. This is primarily because of the enhanced vulnerability brought about through access to resources and goods, particularly those associated with natural resources. In rural societies like those in Gwadar and Lasbela, women are assigned with socially constructed roles that revolve around the homes. Women are engaged in resources use in number of ways from access to water for domestic use, care for children and preparation of food etc. Poor women are direct victims of the impacts being brought by climatic changes. Restrictions related to resource use and to participation in decision making renders women particularly vulnerable. Also, because of their limited movement and limited exposure to knowledge and news, women are disproportionately vulnerable to extremes posted by the changes in climate and also to associated disasters in weather extremes, resource availability, etc.

This family in tehsil Lakhra travels 24 kilometers a day along with their children to fetch drinking water from a dug well

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48 Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan – Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations

4 POTENTIAL FUTURE IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE FOR COASTAL DISTRICTS OF BALOCHISTAN

The sector-wise situational findings and analysis presented in the preceding chapter depicts a

grave picture of poverty, resource dependence and various vulnerabilities. The districts of Gwadar

and Lasbela, because of their geography, social structure and resource dependence, present a

challenging case. Climate change is very likely to add additional stresses and pose significant

threats to the coastal districts of Balochistan. This Chapter therefore presents an analysis of

possible future impacts and implications of climate change in the two districts, based on the study

findings and expert analysis.

4.1. Potential Future Implications for the Sectors contributing to Climate Change

The greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions from various sectors are likely to continue to rise as

development trajectories are pursued that depend on fossil fuels, growth and increased

production. Due to the time lag associated with GHGs in the atmosphere, these climate forcers

will continue to contribute to causing climate change in the long run.

i. Implications for Industrial Sector The Government of Balochistan is giving high importance to industrial development as

means to achieve developmental targets. The industrial units under LIEDA are

considered to hold huge future prospects because of their proximity to the Karachi city

and port, which is the hub of trade and production in southern Pakistan. In this regard, the

industries in Lasbela are considered ideal for attracting investment in near future.

With the expected boom of the industrial production, the greenhouse gas emissions, air

and water pollution, and growing volumes of waste and toxic chemicals will significantly

rise, as no regulation is enforced at the moment that would decouple industrial growth

from resource consumption on the one hand and from pollution and emissions on the

other hand.

Though no actual records are available, it is believed that almost all industrial units in

Lasbela district are energy-intensive. Most of the industries are using outdated equipment

and fuel, which would pose an additional burden for the local environment if not upgraded

or if discarded uncaringly.

In the current energy scenario, where oil and natural gas are in short supply, the

Government is limiting the supply to industrial units to manage the load for domestic

consumers. The situation is expected to aggravate in the future, as the past few years

have already shown a worsening situation. If alternative, especially renewable, sources of

energy are not supported and supplied, this will have adverse implications for the

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Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan – Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations 49

environment, as most of the industrial units will rely of other fuel options including furnace

oil or coal, which are more carbon intensive and release many other air pollutants as well.

ii. Implications for Port and Shipping The port and shipping industry, particularly in the district Gwadar is one of the main

development plans of the Government of Balochistan. Gwadar is undergoing massive

and rapid developmental changes due to these plans to develop Gwadar as a major

deep-sea port. The future prospects of trade, industrial development opportunities and

their economic benefits through Gwadar Port are expected to be manifold. Gwadar shall

not only play a pivotal role in Pakistan’s economy but further influence other neighboring

countries like China, Iran, and those of Central Asia.

The Gwadar development Master Plan aims to transform Gwadar city into an economic

focal point for Balochistan. The demography of Gwadar is likely to experience a massive

transformation, mainly due to the influx of population from all over the country.

By 2055, Gwadar is forecasted to capture about one third of the national port traffic,

translating into a volume of about 350 million tons. This forecast indicates approximately

4,800 ship calls by 2020 and approximately 24,000 by 2055 (Arthur D.Little, 2006)

With such massive development in Gwadar, the environment and ecology of coastal

areas would be subjected to extreme pressures and face various new challenges. The

massive trade development and several-fold increase in ship transport will be

accompanied by huge consumption of fuel, which would ultimately contribute to the

country’s emission score. Also the harbor expansion will necessitate land use changes

with significant impacts on surrounding ecosystems and their provision of natural

resources.

Unsustainable development that does not regard social and environmental considerations

and implications will became a huge challenge also for Gwadar District in the future and

can be expected to have tremendous implications for climate and livelihoods associated

with natural resources and fisheries.

4.2. Potential Future Implications for the Water Sector The prevailing hydrological stress in coastal district of Balochistan due to climatic changes is likely

to become more challenging in days to come. Past trends show a progressive decline in water

availability, while the demand both for agricultural and domestic needs is on a steep rise.

Any additional water scarcity would directly affect the livelihoods of poor farming communities.

This would give rise to social and security consequences. The expected higher temperature

regime would pose additional stress on land resources and accelerate the process of

desertification. As described earlier, the intrusion of sea water into aquifers along coastal areas

would increase with climate change lowering the ground water levels and enhancing

desertification.

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50 Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan – Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations

4.3. Potential Future Implications for the Agriculture Sector The agriculture sector in Gwadar and Lasbela entirely depends on sufficient quantities of water for

irrigation, both directly from precipitation or indirectly from stored surface or extracted ground

water. The declining trend in availability, in continued, would have strong adverse consequences

for the agriculture sector, and thereby negatively impact the socio-economic conditions of the

surrounding, dependent community.

With changing patterns of rainfall, the currently available farming techniques would prove to be

unsuitable to the water and soil conditions and the traditional farming knowledge to be

inapplicable to respond to or anticipate future conditions. For example spate irrigation systems

would be a worthless effort if precipitation becomes even scarcer. As farmers do not have access

to weather warnings, knowledge on more suitable crops, crop insurance and similar coping and

adaptation means, they will continue to rely on their traditional knowledge that is based on

weather patterns of the past.

Under the general prevailing drought conditions, it is expected that a further fall in the ground

water table will render futile most of the existing ground-water extraction methods including

pumping. Additionally, if the current trends prevail, the remaining active Karazes are expected to

dry-up in less than a decade’s time. This would be particularly catastrophic for traditional farmers

in Gwadar and Lasbela.

The present agricultural land-use is expected to change entirely with the further decline, to the

extent of absence, of water. First, efforts such as for the construction of spate irrigation systems

would be diverted towards other means to capture and extract water. Further, it is likely that the

majority of poor farmers, who don’t have other means to cater for crop water demands or who are

unable to switch to high-efficiency irrigation means, would have no other options but to quit

farming and seek other livelihood options. It is likely that such farmers would abandon their lands,

leaving them unmanaged and exposed to natural forces.

4.4. Potential Future Implications for Horticulture Sector Similar to the agriculture sector, the observations show that the sector is increasingly impacted by

stresses posed by the lack of ample water for irrigation. The present flood irrigation methods for

orchards (particularly banana) would be a rare luxury in the future. The drastic and continuous

drops in the ground water table and increasing electricity tariffs would dis-incentivize and likely

stop farmers to flood their orchards. As a result, this major produce in Lasbela would face a

reduction both in the area under cultivation and also the total production, thereby also in its

economic contribution.

Likewise, it is projected that the present practices of cultivating banana, mangoes, citrus, ckikoo,

papaya and guava would particularly fall victim to any further increase in drought conditions, since

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all of them are water demanding. These fruit varieties may not continue to be prime produce in

the future. However crops like dates and coconut, if promoted with proper site selection and well-

adapted methods could prove to be better alternatives. Agronomic practices themselves may also

change, for example, earlier planting and/or earlier harvesting. There may be more on-farm water

conservation to cope with changes in the reliability of water supplies. Growers are also likely to

increase irrigation efficiency to get “more crop per drop”.

Under the stress of water shortage and rise in temperature, the fruit crops will increasingly show

change in physiology, such as early and reduced florigen, longer growing periods and altered time

for fruit maturation, along with larger changes in soil water balances, cropping patterns and

methods used for irrigation. Such changes may reduce production of fruit crop, leaving the crop

more prone to physiological disorders and pest infestation.

A light in increase in atmospheric carbon-dioxide the growth of plants may in fact be accelerated.

Farmers may thus obtain some benefits. However, the aforementioned effects of climate change, such

as higher temperatures, lower soil moisture, increased occurrence of drought, and likely reductions in

annual rainfall are likely to outweigh the positive effects (Passey, 2003).

4.5. Potential Future Implications for the Forestry Sector The adaptability of fragile forest ecosystems is very slow as compared to the relatively fast rise in

temperature.

With the expected temperature extremes and drought conditions prevailing in Gwadar and

Lasbela Districts, forest trees will show reduced growth, as drought not only retards the growth of

a tree, but also becomes a retarding factor in germination and survival of seedlings. Hence, the

re-generation of existing, already scattered forests will be strongly hampered. The climactically

induced extreme events and disasters (e.g. floods, landslides from erosion, etc.), expected to

become more frequent, will also have considerable impacts on forest as winds and erosion cause

physical damage, including breakage and up-rooting

An alien tree species (Prosopis juliflora) has adapted to the harsh conditions, as it is more

resistant than local tree species. It is foreseen that in near future the extent of Prosopis will further

expand because of its ability to dominate in the vast dry-lands. Such a trend would adversely

impact local vegetation, reduce the biodiversity of the area and result in further consequences for

ecosystem resilience.

The degradation of rangeland would also continue to interact with local forests, as the latter

provide alternate fodder for livestock. Particularly, the palatable species would experience heavy

browsing by cattle. Such, degradation of forest would have consequences for watershed values

and leave to soils more prone to erosion by winds and floods. Overall, the demand for fuel wood

and other human exploitation of forest products can be expected to continue to rise steadily, if

people continue to live in the surrounding areas.

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52 Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan – Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations

Like the terrestrial forest, the mangrove forests will continue to experience a range of stresses

including meeting demands for fuel-wood and fodder, thereby likely resulting in their further

degradation. The scantly patches of mangroves are more prone to natural disasters, including

cyclones and tsunamis. Besides, the degradation of mangrove forests has various consequences

for the marine ecology including impacts on commercial fisheries as fish use the mangroves as

prime spawning grounds.

4.6. Potential Future Implications for Rangelands and the Livestock Sector

Being the principal livelihood option for the rural population of the coastal districts of Balochistan,

the impacts of a changing climate on the rangeland and livestock sector would be of particular

concern. The only source of water for vast rangeland areas is rainfall, since these are not irrigated

such as agricultural lands and orchards. More erratic and declining precipitation poses a direct

threat to sparse and already stressed range vegetation.

Due to their significance in providing basic but a wide range of rural produce for subsistence

(hide, meat, milk and fiber), the livestock sector is perceived to have large potential for growth.

However the scarce range vegetation will be the main limiting factor in the further development of

this sector. Most of the rangelands in Gwadar and Lasbela are already under tremendous

pressure exerted by overgrazing, where livestock compete for available foraging pastures.

The heat stress exerted by increased temperatures would continue to exert pressure on livestock

health, in form of more requirements for water, heat stress and increase of pathological diseases,

thereby also questioning the potential for growth in this sector.

4.7. Potential Future Implications for Fisheries and Marine Biological Resources

The marine resources provide the major livelihoods resources to the majority of the population

residing along the coastal belt in Gwadar and Lasbela. The interconnected nature of ecological

marine resources with their surrounding land areas and air above, make them extremely

vulnerable to the impacts of climate change including abrupt temperature fluctuations.

As described earlier, some of the commercial fish species have migratory behavior. The climate

change impacts on ocean temperature coupled with heat distribution (as effect of changing wind

patterns and currents) could alter the migration rate and routes of some of the species. The local

fisherfolk are concerned that those fish species which are more sensitive to warmth would tend to

move to deeper water, i.e. away from coastal areas, and therefore would be harder to catch.

Fish species like Sua, which move towards the coast to spawn, would possibly change their

breeding behavior as a consequence of temperature changes, extent of mangroves, pollution and

turbidity. The change in salinity of coastal waters, due to lesser fresh water inflow, would likely be

a huge contributing factor to decline of Sua fish along the estuaries.

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Corals and their related ecosystems have been shown to be extremely vulnerable to small

changes, particularly in temperature change as little as one degree more than long-term patterns,

which induces coral bleaching, a loss of symbiotic algae as stress reaction and therefore coral

death. Higher sea surface temperatures may result in the loss of entire reefs (Carpenter et al,

2008; Donner et al, 2005). The pollution from inland commercial and industrial activities along the

coast would further render these complex ecosystems vulnerable and sensitive.

Temperature changes directly and the depletion of coral reefs in Balochistan indirectly, may have

significant negative consequences for ecosystems and their species dynamics, population

abundances and distributions of organisms (Dow, 1975).

Adverse phenomena for marine life, such as algal bloom (both dinoflagellates and sea-weeds),

would tend to increase, as nitrogen fertilization (runoff from agriculture and pollution) and

increased temperatures provide favourable conditions. This would again add pressure to the fish

species and would prove disastrous to regeneration of mangrove species.

Some of the key marine species including green turtles would also face additional stresses

caused by degradation of their foraging and breeding habitats. The disturbances to coastal areas

due to human activates and also as a result of disasters like cyclones and of sea level rise are

expected to degrade beaches that are critical for turtle breeding and hatchling habitat. Such

incidence would pose severe threat to population of green turtles along coast of Gwadar. Global

studies also show that the increased temperature effects the incubations and cause variation in

sex ration of hatchlings (more males are produced at warmer temperature). Such alteration in

normal breeding has significant ecological consequences (Spanier., M. J, 2010).

4.8. Potential Future Implications of Climate Change Induced Extreme Events and related Disasters

Climate change is likely to increase the frequency and intensity of hydro-meteorological extreme weather events, which are likely to result in catastrophic outcomes for social systems that are sensitive to and lack the capacity to plan for and respond to these hazards. Such events may be immediate, and lead to widespread social disruption, including loss of life and property, injury and illness, damage to critical infrastructure, disrupted agricultural and hampered industrial production, and degradation of the livelihood resources. The resilience offered by the various ecosystems of Baluchistan’s coast is already significantly declined. Hard, i.e. engineered, protective infrastructure along the coasts, such as dykes and sea walls, is currently not available. Due to this, any such extreme event would have extreme, negative consequences for the fragile ecological, economic and social fabric of the coastal districts of Balochistan province.

4.9. Potential Future Implications for the Social Sector The vulnerability of the societies within the coastal districts of Balochistan is likely to further

increase in days to come and further hamper development efforts. The communities in Gwadar

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54 Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan – Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations

and Lasbela would face additional challenges in terms of their social fabric, their ability to provide

livelihoods for all and therefore likely to experiences increases in inequality.

As the majority of livelihoods are dependent on natural resources, there are fears that the

continued degradation of the latter may lead to mass-scale migrations, especially from rural to

urban areas, thereby posing additional challenges to nearby urban centers like Karachi, Quetta

and other parts of the country (cf. literature on climate change induced migration and conflict, e.g.

Collier, 2007; Reuveny, 2007; Barnett and Adger, 2007). On the one hand this would trigger un-

planned expansion of settlements and would increase competition for resources and jobs there.

On the other hand the rural areas would be largely deserted and left unmanaged.

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Display of vibrant colors, as the fishermen prepare every morning in the hope of a good catch. However, these colors may not be displayed forever, since many fisherfolk are switching profession,

believing that the sea would become barren in days to come.

Photo: Dam Bandar, tehsil Sunmiani, district Lasbela Asghar Shah (IUCN, 2011)

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56 Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan – Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations

5. CONCLUSIONS

This study on the climate change impacts and implications for coastal districts of Balochistan has

aimed to present an analysis of the current and likely future impacts of climate change that

various ecological, social and economic sectors are facing. The study concludes that climate

change poses multi-dimensional impacts and risks to various sectors in the two districts Gwadar

and Lasbela, including the finding that those most at risk are water, agriculture, horticulture,

forestry, rangelands/livestock, marine fisheries and associated biological resources as well as

considering climate change induced extreme events and disasters.

It is now commonly accepted and widely reported in available literature and scientific studies that

climate change is already occurring beyond the natural long-term cycles and also that these

changes pose direct threats. The districts of Gwadar and Lasbela in Balochistan are no exception

to this reality. The field investigations conducted for this study and the consultations with

stakeholders in the mentioned areas, particularly the rural people, provide insights into various

issues and corroborate that climate change has direct and very often catastrophic impacts for

coastal ecosystems and rural livelihoods.

Besides being affected by changing temperatures and associated phenomena, human activities in

the coastal districts of Balochistan also play a significant role in contributing to this global issue.

Various sources emit carbon into the global atmosphere and thereby contribute to causing

climate change, including the industries along the coastal belt, the majority of which are

concentrated in district Lasbela (Hub), the energy intensive ship-wreck industry in tehsil Gadani,

and the port operations and ship traffic related to Gwadar port. The unregulated fishing industry is

also a culprit contributing to emissions and various marine pollutants. Deforestation and forest

degradation are further local sources of carbon emission.

Changes in the climate system have been shown to have considerable influences on precipitation

patterns and for Balochistan have significantly reduced water availability for domestic, agricultural,

livestock and industrial uses. Most of the underground and above-ground storages of water have

significantly depleted. The scarcity of this precious resource is directly affecting the lives of

people, but also indirectly affecting the productivity of ecosystems that support the livelihoods of

the rural people in all other investigated sectors.

For the agriculture sector the study concludes that it is one of the main and direct victims of

changes being observed in the local climate and associated weather patterns. Being directly

dependent on the availability of water, the sector has tremendously suffered and will continue to

experience water shortages, both in rain-fed and irrigated plots. As this sector supports

livelihoods and provides for food security, it is predicted that any further decline in water

availability would prove to be catastrophic for local people. Local agricultural practices provide

little scope for adaptation due to, inter alia, lack of knowledge and financial resources. Large scale

changes are likely to jeopardize local food security and would be detrimental to the local

economy.

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Through the impacts posed by changes in temperature and water availability the horticulture

sector would similarly continue to face challenges that would be hard to manage. The horticultural

production is likely to face drastic declines both in the amount of produce and the area under

cultivation. Farmers consistently reported that the species currently under plantation highly

depend on ample quantities of water and are very sensitive to drought or any sudden temperature

changes and also to pest and pathogen infestations.

The analysis suggests that farmers in agriculture and horticulture may be likely to cope with

droughts as experienced throughout the past, yet suffer largely with long-term declines in

precipitation and water availability as expected with climate change.

The local rangelands, which present the typical landscape, provide critical resources for the

locals, both in Gwadar and Lasbela districts. The rangelands are already highly degraded from

overuse and have recently shown marked changes in vegetation types and their distribution. The

resulting scarcity of palatable species for fodder is becoming a huge challenge for the herders.

Many poor people find themselves without alternative livelihoods. It is projected that this sector

would face huge challenges in the days to come, resulting in altered livelihood patterns of the

area.

Forest ecosystems have a two-way interaction with the climate: deforestation and degradation is

a significant contributor to the climate change problem itself, whereas reforestation is amongst the

best means to sequester carbon and adapt the ecosystem to its effects. The forests in Gwadar

and Lasbela, though being scanty patches, provide a variety of ecological goods and services,

including those rendered in form of protection from disasters (mangroves against storm flooding

or inland forests against erosion) or as breeding ground for commercial species. The heavy

pressure on the forest for meeting ever increasing demands for fuel-wood and fodder is at present

the biggest factor causing the degradation of this resource. The forest in coastal districts of

Balochistan (including mangroves) will continue to be under huge pressures, unless immediate

measures for their resilience are taken.

Characterized by their coastal setting, the districts of Gwadar and Lasbela have a rich marine

ecosystem. This sustains the majority of livelihoods and is therefore the major contributor of the

local economy. Yet, the marine biological resources are considered to be highly affected by

climatic changes. Such changes for the commercial and small-scale fisheries are witnessed in

changed species composition, migration and also extinction of species. It is further projected that

the majority of fishermen communities will face high risks and - potentially abrupt - changes in

their livelihoods and the viability of the sector.

Climate change induced disasters such as cyclones, sea level rise, coastal erosion, floods and

droughts are the most visible and often damaging types of climate change impacts on all the

considered sectors. Due to their varying geography and interface between land and sea, Gwadar

and Lasbela are considered to be particularly vulnerable to such disaster impacts. These districts

have already witnessed many such events in the recent past, the frequency and intensity of which

are believed to be increasing. The study concludes that adaptation to climate change is therefore

of highest importance to these areas and for the concerned communities in order to minimize the

disastrous consequences of these events.

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58 Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan – Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations

With impacts on multiple sectors in multi-dimensional and interactive ways, climate change has huge

social implications for the coastal districts of Balochistan. Besides the disruption of livelihoods, the

changes will likely have secondary effects to increase social injustice, inequalities and to amplify

gender issues. Overall, in unabated, unplanned for and unmanaged, climate change may pose a

severe development hazard for the already poor coastal population and fragile ecological areas of

Balochistan.

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Nature provides enough for everybody's need, but not greed (Mahatma Gandhi).The sea promises plenty to those who respect its might and live in harmony with it.

Photo: View of fish harbor, district Gwadar

Asghar Shah (IUCN, 2011)

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60 Climate Change and Coastal Districts of Balochistan – Situation Analysis, Implications and Recommendations

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

Based on the preceding analysis, this section offers detailed, sector-wise recommendations for initiating actions that are aimed primarily at adapting to climate change and manage its impacts through best utilization of the available resources and expertise in the coastal districts of Balochistan Province.

6.1. Recommendations for Sectors Contributing to Climate Change

i. Short and Medium-term Measures a. In order to focus on those sectors and areas that are the main sources of pollution

and emissions, detailed inventories of carbon and other green house gas emissions from various sources and activities in Gwadar and Lasbela districts are needed, using international best practice and available standards. For the industrial units in district Lasbela, an inventory of the type of technology and fuels being used will greatly assist this process.

b. Actions must be taken to make the general public aware of emissions sources, their significance and related impacts on human health and ecosystems in general. This would help in people understanding and thus dis-incentivizing unnecessary and unabated pollution and emissions.

c. A ban on the use of those fuels, which have very high emissions and pollutants and

also high sulphur contents, should be imposed. Law enforcement measures are immediately required to control smuggling of such illegal fuels across the border. At domestic level, the provision of alternative, clean(er) fuels would help to reduce emissions and also provide con-benefits in form of improvements in health and conservation of forest resources.

d. Energy efficiency measures in industrial production must be encouraged, along with

exploring opportunities under carbon finance. Also, the understanding that efficiency lowers the cost to operate industrial units or fishing boats etc, thereby actually increasing profits per unit of production.

e. To reduce the pressure on remaining forests, on the one hand alternatives to fuel-

wood need to be sought and supported, whereas on the other hand better management of remaining stocks by the relevant government actors needs to be enabled.

ii. Long-term Measures a. Sound policy measures must be initiated to promote appropriate mitigation measures

both for the industrial and port operations, and for the associated shipping along the coastal areas. Measures that regulate the use of more efficient technology must be put in place. Green freight programmes should be designed and implemented to reduce emission from the port and the associated ground transportation sector.

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b. National Environment Quality Standards for industrial and transport sectors must be enforced as to minimize impacts from further development of these sectors.

c. With the planned, large-scale development of Gwadar city in view, a energy code

needs to be introduced to reduce energy utilization from buildings. d. As far as possible, the de-coupling of future developments from (extensive) resource

inputs and from high emissions outputs should be sought and planned for, as proposed under a green economy as an alternative mode to view development.

e. Alternate energy sources (particularly solar and wind) need to be considered and

introduced where feasible. It is considered that huge potential for solar and wind exists along coastal belt of Balochistan (Ahmed et al, 2006). On-grid solar and wind power plants can bring huge benefits not only for meeting national energy demand by clean energy but also offer opportunity to earn carbon credits as one means to finance such

development. Also off-grid options are available for domestic purposes or e.g. to function small pumps on wells.

6.2. Recommendations for the Water Sector

i. Short and Medium-term Measures a. Little specific scientific informing is currently available on the water resources of

Balochistan, and their quantity and quality as well as scenariois. Similarly there are huge gaps in data on water uses, i.e. demand. In-depth and locally applicable scientific research would help in strengthening the knowledge base as an input for decision-making and planning and would also be helpful in assessing the current and future threats to this resource. Academia and research institutions much be assisted to launch immediate research programme for the water sector.

b. Quick-win, field-based projects and programmes need to be implemented for

conserving available ground and surface water resources, including the rehabilitation of traditional kareze system and its management. .

c. Measures to protect and manage the ecology of these districts need to be initiated

the with aim to improve watershed values and build ecosystem resilience to climate change. Engineering measure also needs to be designed and constructed not only with the purpose to minimize impacts of disasters (cyclones flooding etc.) but also to improve underground and ground water resources.

Solar lighting in Gwadar and wind power in Jiwani by Pakistan Wetlands Programme are exemplary for provision of clean energy from alternative sources

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d. There is a need to remove subsidies for ground water extraction to limit further depletion of the resources left. Strict enforcement of laws to check the wasteful extraction of water are required. Sustainable of water use and reuse in all the sectors must be demonstrated and applied. This will be greatly facilitated through strengthening and sensitization of the relevant institutions (including local government).

e. Measures to reclaim water including water recycling, treatment and re-use are good

adaptation options when faced with water scarcity. Methods like bio-remediation can greatly help in this regard. Reclaimed water can support agricultural and industrial demands. Treatment of industrial effluent for re-use for agriculture of industries itself through scientific means should also be considered a priority. Necessary scientific and technological instruments need to be provided.

f. Lack of awareness among the

masses regarding the co-benefits of conserving water must be addressed. As an immediate measure, all the relevant public sector institutions and entities must be mobilized to design and coherently implement activities to raise awareness about water conservation and use-efficiency.

ii. Long-term Measures a. A policy and coordination platform should be instituted in order to address the multi-

dimensional issues related to water sector. Cross-sectoral knowledge and policy linkages of the water sector must be strengthened. All the relevant institutions at provincial level also need strengthening in terms of technological and human resources.

b. Being a multi-dimensional issue, various institutional mechanisms are required for development and conservation of water resources, its supply and taxation. Institutional reforms would help to address and streamline water resource related concerns, as to ensure their efficient utilization and allow financial flows for resource development. The effective implementation of development and conservation plans also needs to be supported and coordinated between Provincial and district levels.

c. An increase in reservoir capacity would help to store water in times of access and to

supply water for all uses thereafter. Reducing evaporation from these reservoirs is also critical.

Farm-level water conservation measures offer enough water for raising wheat near Sur Bandar, Gwadar

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6.3. Recommendations for the Agriculture Sector

i. Short and Medium-term Measures a. Being very significant for local livelihoods, the agriculture sector must be scientifically

studied in depth with respect to the multi-dimensional vulnerabilities and impacts of climatic changes. Scenarios and projections would help develop targeted coping and adaptation strategies. Traditional knowledge available with farmers must also be collected and collated for this purpose.

b. Due to increasing water scarcity, measures to promote equitable access to water for irrigation should be introduced as to support small farmers in particular. On-farm water management techniques need to be introduced and promoted.

c. The mechanization of agriculture methods including low or no tillage to reduce evaporation and carbon emissions, for improved sowing and for harvesting can greatly help in increasing yields Efficient and improved machinery can help in developing this sector.

d. Crop improvement programmes should be considered. Selected and engineered crop varieties can be more resistant to salt, drought and heat stress (particularly wheat and cotton). Practices of planting highly water demanding cops like sugar cane must be strictly monitored as they have long term impacts on water availability also in other areas.

e. Financial security of farmers can be assisted by introducing well-targeted programmes of ‘crop insurance’ particularly against disasters and problems of disease and pest. Agricultural loans can help poor famers in increasing the produce and help to curb poverty.

f. Improved extension programmes can help framers to switch to better agronomic practices, thus to support aforementioned crop improvement and mechanization methods.

ii. Long-term Measures a. Human resource and institutional development in the agriculture sector is required in

order to strengthen the scientific knowledge on climate and agriculture. Existing scientific institutions in Balochistan (e.g. Balochistan University, Lasbela University) must be supported both in terms of human and financial resources to introduce and implement long-term research programmes on agriculture and water. Necessary institutional linkages with national and regional institutions can greatly expedite this research.

b. Investments need to be increased in broad multi-sectoral programmes, that link livelihoods with environment. This would be essential to bring a general socio-economic uplift of the rural people. This would ultimately feed into sectoral development porgramme and increased effectiveness of intervention in agriculture sector.

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c. There is a need for rural people to diversify their income sources, and this process needs to be supported. Industrial, trade and economic development is a must to reduce reliance of local people on the natural resources, if thereby their vulnerability to fast declining resources and degrading ecosystems can be reduced and if the economic developments avoid causing negative environmental impacts. Such an approach in diversification may also help in the conservation of natural resources.

6.4. Recommendations for the Horticulture Sector

i. Short and Medium-term Measures a. In face of water shortages and temperature extremes the response of fruit crops calls

for in-depth research, specifically on phenology, agronomy and also water requirements. These should help to design coping strategies for this sector.

b. On farm water use efficiency must be addressed in a holistic fashion. This would help in reducing water losses in supply and consumption. Carefully designed irrigation systems (including bubblers, sprinklers) needs to be promoted for this sector.

c. Water-intensive irrigation methods including flood irrigation must be immediately

halted in order to strongly reduce high evaporation, high extraction rates from tube-wells and not last high operating costs.

d. Fruit crops that are less water intensive need to be promoted instead of crops like

banana that have high water demands. For example coconut (only in suitable areas along coast), date palm, olive and other such varieties should be tested in rigorous trials for suitability to the respective locations.

e. Increasing awareness raising among farmers on more suitable crops and on irrigation

efficiency is a must for the development and even the viability of the horticulture sector.\

f. Agroforestry should be considered where trees (including fruit trees) can use the soil

moisture next to agricultural areas. In fact agroforestry has been evaluated to be highly resilient to climatic changes due to the diversity of included species, if well managed.

ii. Long-term Measures a. Considering its economic significance, the horticulture sector needs to be developed

with an long-term approach. An integrated policy needs to be designed to further develop specific parts of the sector according to best available climate and market scenarios.

b. Capacity building for longer term adaptation and production improvements should entail a better understanding of interactions between species and growing conditions; increased productivity through orchard management; quality management and certification systems; as well as marketing and economics. This requires cooperation with and strengthening of vocational and university education, and research capacity.

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c. Addressing post harvest processing, storage, grading, polishing, packing and improvement of the cooling chain would help farmers in increasing value addition from horticultural produce.

d. The flow of formal credit to this sector, both on micro and larger scales, will assist

farmers to continue and expand the sector as well as produce trade. e. Production support services, including technical advice and inspection services of

qualified, accredited organisations for quality and food safety assurance systems, would assist in the further development of the horticulture sector.

f. Market information services are to be further developed to ensure better

understanding of trends in the end market. Maintaining close contacts with buyers important.

g. Institutional strengthening and improved coordination among various institutions is

required to develop the sector in a coordinated and well-targeted manner. h. Longer-term planning should investigate so-called ‘trade in virtual water’, which

involves an integrated production and marketing system where crops of high water demand are grown where it is available and dry-land crops in arid areas, whereas these are traded. Thereby the the comparative advantage of both locations are strengthened.

6.5. Recommendations for Forestry Sector

i. Short and Medium-term Measures a. Studies to determine the current changes in the existing forests, including

mangroves, and the future impacts of climatic changes would be highly beneficial to target forest sector programmes and improve management.

b. Over-exploitation as main driver of degradation of forest resources needs to be addressed on a priority basis. The main intervention will be to provide sufficient fuel alternates for meeting domestic demands, along with domestic fuel efficiency and enforcement of illegal and commercial exploitation of forest resources.

c. Integrated programmes to manage watersheds in proximity of coastal districts would

greatly help in betterment of ecosystems functions and services, based on transfer of global and regional experiences. Community participation can greatly help in achieving related objectives of resource conservation and habitat protection.

d. A process of stakeholder dialogue needs to be initiated to effectively address the

causes of biodiversity loss and provide an open forum for discussion of the roles, needs and constraints of the various stakeholders. Such dialogue would play a role both in information dissemination and consensus-building.

e. Co-benefits from forest resource conservation need to be promoted, including

knowledge on sustainably harvesting non-timber forest products. Not only would

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conservation be encouraged, but significant positive impacts on livelihoods and the local economy could be achieved.

f. There is a need to immediately allocate resources for institutional strengthening and

capacity building for the improved management of forest resources. Relevant institutions, particularly the Provincial Forest Department, must be capacitated to enhance measures e.g. on law enforcement and protection and management of forests in coastal districts of Balochistan.

g. Particularly for the mangrove

forests, measures to check and control marine pollution from industrial effluents, domestic sewage dumping into the sea and port traffic should be implemented as to reduce the burden from pollution from this sensitive ecosystem. Necessary law enforcement must be ensured.

ii. Long-term Measures a. The existing patches of natural vegetation need protection through designation of

protected areas along the coastal belt. Improved management of already declared Hingol National Park would certainly help in the conservation of forest resources there. Similarly, the declaration of marine protected areas would not only help in the conservation of mangrove areas but would also help ensuring sustainable harvesting of associated marine resources including fisheries, and would provide a legal framework for such activities.

b. In development planning, special concern should be given to the effects that generating, transmitting, and distributing different types of energy may have on forest ecosystems. This is e.g. in the context of Gwadar port as a trade port or also in terms of oil and gas pipelines in Balochistan.

c. On longer-term basis institutional reforms are needed to regulate and stop mass-

scale deforestation by the mafia. Local authorities must take the lead, yet involve and mobilize communities through improved linkages and coordination.

d. Forest ecosystems (esp. wilderness areas) that are important for ensuring

ecosystems’ resilience towards climatic and environmental changes can be conserved as natural and recreational parks. The tourism sector development along coastal areas can so contribute to financial aspects of adaptation.

e. The globally available mechanisms for generation of carbon credits under ‘Clean

Development Mechanism’ and ‘Reducing Emission from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD and REDD-plus)’ under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change must also be investigated for their feasibility in Balochistan. Such instruments can provide incentives not only for conservation but also initiation of new programmes in the forestry sector development.

Newly raised mangrove plantation in Pishukan, district Gwadar promises to improve forest resources in the area.

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6.6. Recommendations for Rangelands and the Livestock Sector

i. Short and Medium-term Measures a. Due to their tremendous sensitivity to chaining weather patterns, many of the species

in the rangelands are at brink of extinction. There is an urgent need to conduct scientific assessments of the palatable and other rangeland species on their response to the climatic and weather changes.

b. As an urgent matter, participatory range rehabilitation programmes must be implemented in all areas subject to overgrazing with improved management methods and participatory approaches.. Community based grazing system, building on traditional systems of access and rights, must be strengthened. Alternate forage must be made available to meet for the demands of grazing livestock.

c. Many of the areas in Lasbela and Gwadar could be successfully turned into

scientifically managed livestock farms, which would not only help in an increased production but would also help in reducing the burden on natural rangelands.

d. Watershed management can greatly help in the recovery of the range species and

increased production for rangelands areas. Measures to conserve water like small dams and other mechanized means can help in this range rehabilitation process. Engineering measures can also be tested and applied where suitable.

e. Cattle breed and health improvement programmes must be launched to help poor

farmers in improving livelihood opportunities. f. Market opportunities need to be strengthened with a purpose to improve the

marketing of livestock related products through developing competitive market chains. Such an intervention would greatly encourage farmers to increase production as well as value addition from this sector.

g. The traditional local governance needs to be strengthened, particularly related to

decision making and ownership of grazing lands. This would also strengthen the efforts related to management of the grazing lands.

ii. Long-term Measures a. A broad policy platform must be devised for ownership structures and management of

range and livestock resources in Balochistan province. The oversight and political responsibility for the rangeland sector must be clearly defined and allocated to the government functionaries that are best suited. Necessary capacity building and institutional strengthening needs to follow.

b. For improved production from the rangeland and livestock sectors, proper coordination mechanism must be put in place to ensure effective management and conservation practices by all relevant departments and agencies i.e. livestock, agriculture, revenue, and forest departments as well as local government.

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6.7. Recommendations for Fisheries and Marine Biological Resources

i. Short and Medium-term Measures a. Research needs to investigate the complex dynamics of the changes being brought

about the climate in species existence and distribution in relation with the surrounding ecosystems. Such scientific findings would greatly help in conservation and wise use of marine resources.

b. Over and un-regulated exploitation of marine resources as the prime reason of their fast degradation must be regulated. Strict law enforcement on illegal practices is critical. Commercial trolling must be limited to honor the rights of traditional, small fishermen. Restricted use of damaging ground needs is to be ensured for conservation and sustained reproduction of the fishing stocks.

c. Marine pollution from illegal dumping of domestic and industrial wastes and also from port operations and the fishing industry must be rapidly controlled to avoid any further degradation of the fish population. Enforcement of measures to implement the National Environment Quality Standards (NEQS) would help curbing pollution from the industrial sector. Also, the ship breaking industry in Gadani must be regulated, in particular regarding the type of chemical being used and often indiscriminately dumped.

d. The regulation of fishing grounds must be clearly defined, with identified roles of the concerned provincial Government departments and agencies. Extended capacity building and advocacy must include the conservation of marine fish resources.

e. Without further delay programmes for the protection and conservation of critical and ecologically important ecosystems (coral reefs and mangroves) must be implemented to safeguard these from adverse impacts of climate change and from over-exploitation. Breeding grounds of critically endangered fish species and marine turtles should also be protected in a very integrative and intensive manner. Marine protected areas would assist these goals.

f. The concerned Government departments and agencies specially the Marine Fisheries Department and Pakistan Coast Guards must be capacitated to monitor commercial fishing and to ensure law enforcement for curbing illegal practices and techniques. Reforms are required for the Marine Fisheries department and its role.

ii. Long-term Measures a. A comprehensive programme for research on the Balochistan coastal and marine

biological resources is needed to support design and adoption of policy approaches aimed at their conservation and management.

b. Inter-provincial dialogue needs to be conducted to devise institutional approaches that can be successfully applied across provinces to monitor and regulate fishing along the whole coast of Pakistan. Throughout, the rights of the local, subsistence fishermen should be safeguarded.

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c. Institutional strengthening to regulate fishing must be made an integral part of all the provincial development plans in Balochistan.

d. The development of ocean aquaculture (also called mariculture) should be

considered along the Balochistan coast, since there is a good (international) market for high quality and certified fish.

6.8. Recommendations to address Climate Change Induced Disasters and Extreme Events

i. Short and Medium-term Measures a. There is a need to strengthen the existing scientific system to collect, analyze,

present and disseminate meteorological information to help in predicting disasters and supporting preparedness. The network of hydro-meteorological, oceanographic and marine monitoring instruments should be expanded to assist this research.

b. Down-scaling (statistical or dynamic) of existing climate models to provincial level will support local authorities in preparing appropriate response strategies to expectable extreme events.

c. Most of the hydro-meteorological events are about ‘too much’ or ‘too little’ water. A paradigm shift is needed on the policy level to plan for measures to make use of water when it is abundant. Interventions aiming at storage of abundant water can help in meeting local demands for agricultural and domestic use. Therefore this involves an important paradigm shift from a reactive disaster reduction towards a proactive adaptation approach, as far as possible.

d. Scientific, social and institutional level disaster preparedness and response needs strengthening through rigorous capacity building and provisions of financial and technical resources.

e. Establishment of warning systems particularly against cyclones and associated floods

is absolutely critical. Important steps under this priority include developing and disseminating high quality information about climate hazards and their likely future changes; preparing briefings for policymakers and sector leaders; reviewing the effectiveness of early warning systems; implementing procedures to ensure warnings reach vulnerable groups; and undertaking public information programmes to help people understand the risks they face and how to respond to warnings.

f. The underlying risk factors need to be reduced and climate adaptation measures

implemented. This covers many environmental and societal factors that create or exacerbate the risks from natural hazards. Measures can include, but are by no means limited to incorporating climate risk considerations in development planning processes and macro-economic projections; requiring the use of climate risk-related information in city planning, land-use planning, water management, and environmental and natural resource management; strengthening and maintaining protective structures such as coastal wave barriers, river levees, flood ways and flood ponds; requiring routine assessment and reporting of climate risks in infrastructure projects, building designs, and other engineering practices; developing risk transfer

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mechanisms and social safety nets; and supporting programmes for diversification of livelihoods;.

g. There is a need to undertake large-scale campaigns to better prepare communities to calamities including floods, droughts and desertification. For abrupt events like cyclones drills must be designed and demonstrated to ensure better preparedness at community level and also for the disaster relief institutions including local government and non-governmental organizations. Supporting civil society can help the poor to voice their needs and demands to access social protection.

h. Measures to limit sea erosion and to protect coastal communities against calamities originating from oceans need to be given attention. Mangrove plantation and conservation of existing patches would be of great help in this regard, constituting so-called ecosystem-based adaptation, which can be part of a larger adaptation measure that also includes engineered structures.

i. Conservation of existing and

further improvments of ground vegetation especially forest cover would provide more protection against desertification.

ii. Long-term Measures a. Disaster Risk Reduction and preparedness must become an integral part of all

development plans at provincial level. Institutional capacity must be built to take full responsibility for DRR measures. The linkages with provincial, national and regional institutions must be enhanced.

b. It is important to link policy, planning and actions with wider poverty reduction frameworks and growth strategies in these districts.

c. Integrated coastal zone management should be made an integral part of the development planning process. Long-term consistency amongst various plans and their implementation mechanisms would support disaster preparedness and management.

d. Social protection interventions need to fully address issues of social vulnerability including marginalisation and exclusion. Support to local institutions involved at building community resilience to such disasters needs to be initiated as an overall development feature along the coastal areas.

e. Community infrastructure along coastal areas is considered highly vulnerable to the catastrophes brought by climate change. Any further infrastructural development

Protection wall constructed at Sur Bandar in district Gwadar and installation of early warning tower at Fish Harbor, Gwadar are good examples of disaster preparedness

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must be carefully designed as to build resilience towards cyclones and sea level rise.

f. Local coordination mechanisms should link disaster risk reduction with longer-term

adaptation. Possible measures include improving existing systems to include the changed hazard circumstances, developing coping strategies that do not enhance vulnerability in the long term but that build resilience, and using feedback and experience to design these in an appropriate manner.

6.9. Recommendations for the Social Sector

i. Short and Medium-term Measures a. There is a continuing need to conduct in-depth social research on the various

dimensions of the impacts of climate change on society, including equity and equality, social transformation and gender related aspects, as a basis for substantive vulnerability analyses. Such outputs would provide useful in-sights to this very complex issue and complex interactions, in order to better target any of the other interventions towards the most vulnerable and most at risk social as well as ecological systems.

b. Research studies should also investigate which groups of the population are particularly vulnerable to climate-change induced extreme events and associated changes, resulting in better targeting of early warning information, in improved implementation of coping and adaptation measures as well as in providing post-disaster relief assistance.

c. There is a need to build local awareness on the changes being brought by climate change, even at the grass-root level. A participatory decision making approach and other improvements in local governance would encourage using knowledge and tools for managing the social impacts of climate change, as well as other development requirements overall.

d. Awareness raising tools needs to be employed to promote the sustainable use of

resources and concerns of equity and equality related to resource conservation. This could also help in reducing discrimination towards women.

e. Increasing understanding of the different roles of fisheries in the livelihoods of the poor in

different contexts will strongly help to devise livelihood diversification options and holistic adaptation measures.

ii. Long-term Measures a. Investments for social development programmes on a long-term basis can develop

society and promote ethical values more generally, that would play a role in reducing vulnerabilities also towards climate change impacts.

b. Capacity building for sustainable development in coastal areas is not only a matter of providing opportunities for involvement in decision-making, it is also a matter of enabling local communities to take a degree of ‘ownership’ over local development

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trajectories. Such a measure should be targeted particularly to local institutions and allied community development initiatives.

c. The vulnerabilities and risks of poor people dependent on fisheries should be

specifically investigated and management of the fisheries arranged in such a manner to protect this traditional livelihood.

d. Gender considerations must be mainstreamed in all local and provincial initiatives to help reduce disparities and inequalities within society. Also since women play an important role in accessing and using natural resources, strengthening their knowledge and role can go a long way towards sustainable use.

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Annexure I

People met and interviewed (in alphabetical order)

A. Representatives from Public Sector and Civil Society Organizations

1. Mr. Ahmad Khan. Manager National Programmes, Pakistan Wetlands Programme, WWF Pakistan

2. Mr. Abdur Rahim. Site Manager, Mekran Wetlands Complex, Gwadar, Pakistan Wetlands Programme, WWF Pakistan

3. Mr. Abdullah Usman. District Coordinator, Disaster Risk Management, District Disaster Management Authority, District Government Gwadar/UNDP, Gwadar

4. Dr. Abdul Hameed Bajoi. Vice Chalcellor, Lasbela University for Agriculture, Water and Marine Sciences, Lasbela

5. Mr. Ahmed Nadeem. Deputy Director, Balochistan Coastal Development, Authority, Gwadar

6. Mr. Ali Mohammad. Professor Government Degree College, Bela, Lasbela 7. Mr. Amir Hamza. Skipper, Marine Fisheries Department, Damb Lasbela 8. Mr. Asfand Yar Khan. Deputy Commissioner, Lasbela 9. Mr. Azeem Roonah. District Coordinator, Lasbela Civil Society Network/ President,

Welfare Association for New generation, Lasbela 10. Dr. Azra Bano. Lecturer in Marine Biology Department, Lasbela University for Agriculture

Water and Marine Sciences, Lasbela 11. Mr. Dilawash. Site Supervisor, IUCN’s Phore Mangrove Plantation, Lasbela 12. Ms. Edna Azad. Lecturer in marine Biology, Lasbela University for Agriculture Water and

Marine Sciences, Lasbela 13. Mr. Ghulam Rasool. Project Coordinator, Coastal Association for Research and

Development, Damb Bandar, Tehsil Sunmiani, Lasbela 14. Dr. Habib ul Hassan. Dean Faculty of Marine Biology, Lasbela University for Agriculture

Water and Marine Sciences, Lasbela 15. Mr. Hakim Shah. Research Student, Marine Biology Department, Lasbela University for

Agriculture Water and Marine Sciences, Lasbela 16. Mr. Imam Baksh Umrani. Director/Executive District Officer, Agriculture Extension

Department, Lasbela 17. Dr. Javiad Mustaqeem. Professor of Marine Biology. Research Student, Marine Biology

Department, Lasbela University for Agriculture Water and Marine Sciences, Lasbela 18. Ms. Kekshan. Research Student, Marine Biology Department, Lasbela University for

Agriculture Water and Marine Sciences, Lasbela 19. Mr. Khair Mohammad. Teacher, Government Boys Middle School, Hub, Lasbela 20. Mr. Majid Aslam. Research Student, Marine Biology Department, Lasbela University for

Agriculture Water and Marine Sciences, Lasbela 21. Mr. Majid Mohsin Panhwar. Additional Deputy Commissioner (Revenue), Lasbela 22. Mr. Haji Mohammad. Social Mobilizer, Coastal Association for Research and

Development, Damb Bandar, Tehsil Sunmiani, Lasbela 23. Mr. Khalil Ahmad Roonjah. District Coordinator, Institute for Development Studies and

Practices, Hub Campus, Lasbela 24. Mr. Mohammad Asif Gondal. Assistant Professor of Marine Biology, Lasbela University

for Agriculture Water and Marine Sciences, Lasbela 25. Mr. Mohammad Aslam Baloch. Executive District Officer, Public Health Engineering

Department, Gwadar

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26. Mr. Naeem Javed. Divisional Forest Officer, Forest Department, Gwadar 27. Dr. Nuzhat. Lecturer in Marine Biology Department, Lasbela University for Agriculture

Water and Marine Sciences, Lasbela 28. Ms. Rubina Manzoor Baloch. Lecturer in marine Biology, Lasbela University for

Agriculture Water and Marine Sciences, Lasbela 29. Mr. Saghir Zaman. Research Student, Marine Biology Department, Lasbela University for

Agriculture Water and Marine Sciences, Lasbela 30. Ms. Sonia Tariq. Lecturer in Marine Biology, Lasbela University for Agriculture Water and

Marine Sciences, Lasbela 31. Mr. Saif Ghulam Rabbani. Assistant Professor of Marine Biology, Lasbela University for

Agriculture Water and Marine Sciences, Lasbela 32. Mr. Sher Ahmad. Registrar, Lasbela University for Agriculture Water and Marine

Sciences, Lasbela

B. Communities/local representatives

1. Mr. Adam. Boat making labor, Fish Harbour Road, Gawdar 2. Mr. Abdus Samad. Mango Farmer, Union Council Nailant, Gawdar 3. Mr. Abu Bakar. Farmer, village Palado, tehsil Pasni, Gawdar 4. Mr. Abdur Rehman Sethar. Farmer, Por Bhambore, tehsil Lakhra, Lasbela 5. Mr. Dad Mohammad. Community Representative, Dasht, district Gwadar 6. Mr. Faiz Mohammad. President, Wardo Boat Labor Society, Fish Harbour Road, Gawdar 7. Mr. Ghulam Mohammad Lasssi. Former Nazim, tehsil, Uthal, Lasbela. 8. Mr. Rahim Ullah Baloch. Fisherman, Sur Bandar, Gwadar 9. Mr. Fazal Mohammad Lassi. Daily Intekhab, Hub, Lasbela. 10. Mr. Fida Ahmad Hanif. Fisherman, Union Council Peshkhan, Gwadar 11. Ms. Lal Bibi Bibi Baloch. President, Sahil Welfare Society, Deran Khuda Baksh Abad,

tehsil Gadani, Lasbela 12. Mr. Hameed Ullah. Fisherman, Damb Bandar, Tehsil Sunmiani, Lasbela 13. Mr. Mohammad Ayub. Former Nazim, Union Council Peshkhan, Gwadar 14. Mr. Mohammad Hanif. Fisherman, Union Council Peshkhan, Gwadar 15. Mr. Mohammad Qayyum. Farmer, Mouza Qambar, tehsil Lakhra, Lasbela 16. Mr. Mohammad Karim. School Master, Mouza Qambar, tehsil Lakhra, Lasbela 17. Mr. Mohammad Yousaf Ronjha. Farmer, Por Bhambre, tehsil Lakhra, Lasbela 18. Mr. Naseem. Fisherman, Damb Bandar, Tehsil Sunmiani, Lasbela 19. Mr. Mohammad Usman. Fisherman, Damb Bandar, Tehsil Sunmiani, Lasbela 20. Mr. Mohamamd Ismail. Fisherman, Tehsil Jiwani, Gwadar 21. Mr. Khawar Ali. Fisherman, Gwadar fishing jetty, Gwadar 22. Mr. Kareem Farman. Fish broker, fish harbor, Gwadar

23. Mr. Zubair Lahsi. Livestock Herder, Jewani, Gwadar

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INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE

IUCN Pakistan Balochistan Programme Office

Marker Cottage, Zarghoon Road, Quetta Pakistan

Tel +92 (81) 2840450-2 Fax +92 (81) 2820706 [email protected]

www.iucn.org/pakistan