Choices and regrets in children’s counterfactual thinking

Sarah BeckUniversity of Birmingham

Patrick Burns, Kevin Riggs, Daniel Weisberg

Counterfactual thinking

• ‘If only I had left the house earlier, I would have caught the train...’

• ‘I should have set an alarm’• ‘I almost made it’

• Experience of regret

Why look at development?

• What are children’s capacities?• Understanding the process of counterfactual

thinking can be easier in earlier stages of a developing system

• Include more ‘indirect’ measures to tap children’s abilities (difficulties with formal language might be avoided in behavioural tasks?)

Children’s counterfactual thinking and emotions

Development of counterfactual thinking

• 3-4 shift (Harris et al, 1996; Riggs et al, 1998)

• Later developments:– Complex conditionals:

Rafetseder, Cristi-Vargas, Perner, 2010

– ‘What else could have happened?’ Beck et al, 2006

– Almosts (Harris, 1997, Beck & Guthrie, in press)

Development of counterfactual emotions

• 7 yr olds understand regret, Guttentag & Ferrell, 2004

• experience regret,– Amsel & Smalley, 2000– 5-6 yrs Weisberg & Beck,

2010– 6-7 yrs O’Connor et al, under

sub– 10-11yrs Rafetseder &

Perner, under sub

Why look at counterfactual emotions?

• Cognition and emotion• Function of counterfactual thinking (e.g.

Roese, 1997)• Why is there a developmental lag (if there is

one)?– Spontaneity?– Domain general constraints (EF)?– Are we really measuring regret?

Experiencing Counterfactual Emotions

• Simplified CFE game

1. Choose between 2 boxes2. See contents of chosen box3. Rate happiness on scale4. See unchosen contents5. Re-rate happiness with your box

• Regret and Relief trials• 11 5-6, 10 6-7, 10 7-8, 12 adults Chosen:

2 stickersUnchosen:

8 stickers (regret)OR empty (relief)

Weisberg & Beck, 2010, JECP

Experiencing Counterfactual Emotions

• Difference score (first – second rating)

• -ve = regret, +ve = relief• All groups showed regret,

and no differences between groups

• Only 7-8 year olds and adults experienced relief

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

5-6 years

6-7 years

7-8 years adult

regretrelief

Weisberg & Beck, 2010, JECP

Methodological problems

• The scale– Difficult to show relief if you are happy winning

first sticker– Sensitivity?

• Is this a result of double questioning?– Rafetseder & Perner (under submission).

Improvements to method:New rating scale

• Children chose between two cards: win/lose tokens– Regret-Win trials (Win 2/3, could have won 8)

Regret-Lose trials (Lost 2/3, could have won 3)

– Relief-Win trials (Win 2/3, could have lost 3)Relief-Lose trials (Lost 2/3, could have lost 8)

Results

Regret-Win trials (Win 2/3, could have won 8) – Experienced at 5, p = .001Regret-Lose trials (Lost 2/3, could have won 3) – Experienced at 5, p < .001

Relief-Win trials (Win 2/3, could have lost 3) – Experienced at 5, p < .001Relief-Lose trials (Lost 2/3, could have lost 8) – Experienced at 7, p = .010

Age 4-5, n = 55, m = 5;1, r = 4;8 – 5;7, 29 malesAge 5-6, n = 52, m = 6;2, r = 5;8 – 6;7, 27 malesAge 6-7, n = 55, m = 7;3, r = 6;8 – 7;8, 31 males

Weisberg & Beck, under submission

Are these really counterfactual emotions?

• Do children need to do cf thinking to ‘pass’ our boxes task?

1. Choose between 2 boxes2. See contents of chosen box3. Rate happiness on scale4. See unchosen contents5. Re-rate happiness with your box

“I should have picked the other

box”Counterfactual

“I don’t have those 8 stickers”

Frustration

Weisberg & Beck, in prep.

Are these really counterfactual emotions?

• “I should have picked the other box” (counterfactual)

• OR “I don’t have those 8 stickers” (frustration)• Adult literature suggests that feeling of

responsibility increases likelihood of regret (Byrne, 2002; Roese & Olson, 1995; Zeelenberg et al, 1998)

• Correlation between life regrets and responsibility (Zeelenberg et al, 1998)

Adults making ‘choices’

• Is there really a ‘choice’ in the boxes game?• Illusion of control (Langer 1975....)• People who chose a lottery ticket (based on a

picture ) compared to those allocated ticket:– Less likely to resell– Value their ticket more

• Even though the decision is arbitrary their judgments are influenced by the apparent ‘choice’

Choice, Chance and regret

• Children played the boxes game in one of three conditions:– Choose which box you win– Experimenter rolls die to determine which box– Child rolls die to determine which box

• If children are simply frustrated, this manipulation shouldn’t affect them

• If they are thinking counterfactually, more ‘regret’ in choice condition.

Weisberg & Beck, under sub.

Choice/Chance experiment

• 5-6yrs N = 101• 6-7yrs N = 94• 7-8yrs N = 102

Age (years) and condition Regret initial-win Regret initial-lose Relief initial-win Relief initial-lose % p p p p n

Age 5 to 6 Choice 37 65 16 19 <.001** 76 13 11 <.001** 0 13 87 <.001** 14 54 32 .548 No Choice - Child 32 44 50 6 .135 25 59 16 .222 0 47 53 .015* 6 69 25 .222 No Choice - Experimenter 31 23 55 22 .148 26 64 10 .259 3 61 36 .450 19 58 23 .148

Age 6 to 7

Choice 33 88 12 0 <.001** 82 6 12 <.001** 3 12 85 <.001** 6 60 33 .549 No Choice - Child 27 56 33 11 .013* 30 63 7 .443 0 41 59 .005* 7 71 22 .162 No Choice - Experimenter 32 31 62 7 .500 16 84 0 .024† 3 81 16 .024† 12 66 22 .123

Age 7 to 8

Choice 37 92 5 3 <.001** 97 3 0 <.001** 0 5 95 <.001** 2 30 68 <.001** No Choice – Child 33 55 39 6 .009* 64 36 0 <.001** 3 45 52 .021* 3 55 42 .167 No Choice – Experimenter 32 22 78 0 .123 22 75 3 .123 0 72 28 .352 3 63 34 .500

Choice, chance and regret• All three conditions differ from each other on both CFE• Regret/relief only differ in the choice condition• Children’s ratings at all ages are influenced by choice

manipulation• Evidence for counterfactual emotions (in choice)

Weisberg & Beck, in prep.

The child throws condition

• Don’t realise it’s chance – illusion of control– if IoC might predict a difference between relief

and regret trials.• Do realise it’s chance but still some

opportunity for counterfactual emotions?• Adults show counterfactual emotions under

some chance events (e.g. Imagine being allocated lottery ticket 245 when 246 wins?)

Choice and Chance in regret

• Choice experiment finds evidence for change in emotion in 5-7 year olds when they make a choice about the outcome (to some extent when involved)

• But not when outcome is determined by chance• Double-questioning can’t be the only problem• Indirect measures of counterfactual thought• Counterfactual emotions develop in middle

childhood – involve something more than being able to answer simple conditional questions.