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The New Silk Road

Chinarsquos Energy Strategyin the Greater Middle East

Christina Lin

Policy Focus 109 | April 2011





The New Silk RoadChinarsquos Energy Strategy

in the Greater Middle East

Christina Lin




All rights reserved Printed in the United States of America No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted inany form or by any means electronic or mechanical including photocopy recording or any information storage and retrievalsystem without permission in writing from the publisher

copy 2011 by the Washington Institute for Near East PolicyPublished in 2011 in the United States of America by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy1828 L Street NW Suite 1050 Washington DC 20036

Design by Daniel Kohan Sensical Design and Communication

Front cover Chinarsquos Great Armada oil Zhang HongNian Te Ming Dynastyrsquos Admiral Zheng He and his giant nine-mastedtreasure ships made seven voyages around the Indian Ocean the Persian Gulf and Africa trading and collecting tribute forthe Dragon Trone Te Chinese navy would not sail again to the Middle East for another 600 years until April 2010

CREDIS Jean-Paul Rodrigue Claude Comtois and Brian Slack Te Geography of ransport Systems (New York Routledge 2009)

Juli MacDonald Amy Donahue and Bethany Danyluk Energy Futures in Asia (Booz Allen Hamilton report sponsored by

the Oce of Net Assessment November 2004)ldquoSyria-Iraq Plan Gas Pipeline Constructionrdquo Business Monitor International January 2009ldquoEU-urkey Agree on Arab Gas Pipeline Cooperationrdquo MEMRI Economic Blog May 6 2008Stuart Burns ldquoDonrsquot Shed a ear for Chinarsquos Steel Pipe Producersrdquo AGMetalMinercom March 23 2010Ariel Cohen Lisa Curtis and Owen Graham ldquoTe Proposed Iran-Pakistan-India Gas Pipeline An Unacceptable Risk to

Regional Securityrdquo Backgrounder no 2139 (Heritage Foundation May 30 2008)CIA World FactbookUS Energy Information Administration



Contents

About the Author v

Acknowledgments vii

Executive Summary ix

Introduction xv

1 | Chinarsquos Strategic Shi 3

2 | An Increasing Footprint 7

3 | Te Four Seas Strategy 13

4 | Policy Recommendations 19

Notes 21

Illustrations

Fig 1 | Chinarsquos Silk Road Strategy and String of Pearls (map) 2

Fig 2 | Chinarsquos Energy Mix 3

Fig 3 | rans-Asian Railway (map) 16

Tables

able 1 | Chinese National Energy Commission Members January 2010 5









The Washington Institute for Near East Policy vii

Acknowledgments

T H E A U T H O R W O U L D L I K E T O T H A N K the leadership and sta at Te Washington Institute for helping

to make this publication possible Special thanks go to Simon Henderson and Patrick Clawson who served as themain and secondary readers and particularly to George Lopez the manuscriptrsquos editor Finally I would like tothank Lt Gen John Allen at US Central Command whose strategic vision encouragement and inspiration overthe years helped bring this idea to fruition Semper Fidelis





The Washington Institute for Near East Policy ix

Executive Summary

build the IP portion of the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI)

pipeline with the view of bringing either New Delhior Beijing into the project Elsewhere in the regionChina has entered the Iraqi energy scene and is nowthat countryrsquos top oil and gas investor

Trough the lens of these and other energy devel-opments this report examines how Beijingrsquos increasing footprint in the Greater Middle East impacts US andallied interests It also provides recommendations onhow Washington can counterbalance troubling trendsresulting from Chinarsquos activities

Strategic ShiftSince China became an energy importer in 1993 it hasadopted a ldquogo outrdquo strategy to procure energy assetsabroad turning historical routes into a modern gridof pipelines roads and railways for its energy supplieshis approach stems in part from Beijingrsquos fears of aUS blockade on maritime supplies in the event of hos-tilities over aiwan It also reects the reality of rapidlygrowing Chinese energy demand

An August 2010 report showed that China hadbecome the worldrsquos number-one energy consumer

surpassing the United States In addition the coun-try has enjoyed double-digit annual growth for mostof the past decade fueled not by consumer demandbut by energy-intensive heavy industry and infra-structure construction as well as growing demandin the transportation sector Although coal remainsChinarsquos top resource the governmentrsquos desire todiversify and increase its energy supplies via naturalgas and other options has led it to greater engage-ment with countries rich in such resources both tofeed Chinese economic development and preserve

the regimersquos legitimacyOver the years various journalists policymakers

and scholars began to refer to this approach as the SilkRoad strategy Chinese ocials have in turn co-optedthis narrative in order to evoke common historical tiesalong the Silk Road as they pursue expanded relations with countries in Central Asia the Caucasus and the

T H E R E C E N T T R A J E C T O R Y of Chinarsquos political

relationships economic initiatives and military pos-ture make clear that the Middle Kingdom has arrivedin the Greater Middle East and appears determined tostay awhile For several years now Beijing has deemedenergy security too important to be left to marketforces alone and has prioritized the issue as a matter of national security From new pipeline and infrastruc-ture projects to increased naval port calls China isestablishing footholds in Central Asia the Four Seasregion and the Middle East It is also stepping up itsmilitary ties to protect those interests Moreover both

the path of this expansion and its underlying rationaleshare much in common with the ancient Silk Roadand the Arab sea routes that rst brought China to the West (see g 1)

Much of this activity has been rooted in Chinarsquostendency to view energy security in geopolitical andstrategic terms rather than purely economic terms In particular Beijing has been concerned about counter-ing Western energy initiatives in the region In 2009for example the state-owned China National Petro-leum Company completed a natural gas pipeline across

Central Asia to urkmenistan on the eastern shore of the Caspian Sea even as an EU-backed consortium was working on the Nabucco pipeline to reach urkmeniangas reserves from the west In June 2010 urkmenian president Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov announced a$2 billion project to connect the eastern pipeline withChina to urkmenistanrsquos western resources jeopardiz-ing Nabuccorsquos viability

Energy plans in NAOrsquos adjacent Afghanistan the-ater have faced competition from China as well UScompanies and the Asian Development Bank have long

advocated a gas pipeline from urkmenistan throughAfghanistan to consumers in Pakistan and India cul-minating in the proposed urkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (API) project Yet the project willhave to contend with a rival proposal for Pakistan andIndia to obtain gas through pipelines from Iran InMarch 2009 ehran and Islamabad closed a deal to



Christina Lin The New Silk Road

x Policy Focus 109

ldquostrategic partnershipsrdquo that Beijing has formed withkey states

Iran Between 2005 and 2010 Chinese rms signed

an estimated $120 billion worth of contracts with theIranian hydrocarbon sector Iran is of particular signi-cance to China because it borders both the Caspian Seaand the Persian Gulf In the Gulf Beijing views Iran as ameans of counterbalancing US-supported Arab statesbelieving that the US Navy is incapable of completelyclosing the Gulf so long as Chinese-allied Iran controlsthe eastern ank ehran is also a key node in Chinarsquosoverland and maritime ldquoSilk Roadrdquo with Beijing look-ing to increase railway links and perhaps even establish anaval base on one of Iranrsquos islands Tese and other geo-

political concerns tend to outweigh the oen-opaqueenergy relations between the two countries

Saudi Arabia oday more than half of Saudi oilows to Asia compared with 14 percent to the UnitedStates Saudi Aramco owns a renery in Chinarsquos Qing-dao province and has another in Fujian while Chineserms have begun to invest in Saudi infrastructure andindustry Meanwhile the kingdom remains Chinarsquoslargest trading partner in the Middle East

On the military front China supplied the Saudis

with nuclear-capable CSS-2 missiles during the 1980sand Washington is now concerned that Riyadh mayseek to create a deterrent against Iran by acquiring moreChinese-designed missiles as well as dual-key nuclear warheads from Pakistan Although the United Statesremains Saudi Arabiarsquos key security guarantor the king-dom is also hedging its bets in the face of a potentialnuclear Iran by engaging ehranrsquos main ally Beijing

Iraq Beijing has already stepped up its investment portfolio in Iraq and is now the countryrsquos top oil and

gas investor signing long-term development and service contracts for the al-Ahdab Rumaila Halfaya andMaysan oil elds either directly or through recently purchased foreign rms Given Iraqrsquos still-limited oiloutput security problems and lack of a hydrocarbonlaw however China will continue to rely heavily on itscurrent top suppliers Saudi Arabia Angola and Iran

Middle East Moreover in January 2010 Chinarsquos StateCouncil announced the establishment of a NationalEnergy Commission under Prime Minister Wen Jia-baorsquos leadership with members from the Ministry of

Foreign Aairs Ministry of State Security PLA Gen-eral Staff Department and other agencies Beijingrsquosinclusion of the foreign aairs security and militaryintelligence apparatus reects the regimersquos deep con-cerns about energy security

o address these concerns Beijing has turned to theShanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Estab-lished in 2001 the SCO consists of China Russia andthe four Central Asian republics of Kazakhstan Kyr-gyzstan ajikistan and Uzbekistan along with fourobserver states (Iran Pakistan India and Mongolia)

China has used the organization to achieve gradualeconomic integration with the Central AsianCaspianregion and meet three main goals (1) pacifying therestive Xinjiang province home to significant Mus-lim-Uyghur separatist forces (2) diversifying energysources from the Persian Gulf and hedging against anymaritime embargoes and (3) projecting Chinese hege-mony across Eurasia Tis strategy has largely centeredon using nancial means to create dependency among regional governments building on increased politicalmilitary and hydrocarbon cooperation

Indeed just as the state-controlled Russian energyfirm Gazprom weaponizes energy by cutting off gassupplies to target countries when it disapproves of theirforeign policy Beijing perceives energy as a weapon tobe used for coercive purposes Tis view goes hand inhand with Chinarsquos unwillingness to rely on unfetteredinternational markets for its energy suppliesmdashas muchas possible the regime seeks to control the routes by which energy reaches China

Increasing FootprintChinarsquos widespread energy investments have extendedto most every corner of the Greater Middle East par-ticularly the Caspian Basin and key nodes such asIran urkey and Greece In many cases this grow-ing economic foothold has translated into a militaryfoothold as well given the large-scale participation of Chinese army personnel in energy projects and the



The Washington Institute for Near East Policy xi

Executive Summary Christina Lin

n oil-drilling platforms and ocean survey ships in theSouth China Sea

n the Kra Canal in southern Tailand

n intelligence-gathering facilities on Great CocoIsland near the Strait of Malacca

n a deepwater port under construction in Sittwe Burma

n a container shipping facility in Chittagong Bangladesh

n the proposed Irrawaddy transportation corridor which would link Chinarsquos Yunnan province to theBay of Bengal through Burma

n Hambantota port in Sri Lanka

n a potential extension of the IPI pipeline through Islam-abad and over the Karakoram Highway to Kashgar

n a naval base under construction in Gwadar Pakistan

n upgraded facilities in Port Sudan

China has also added the Greek port of Piraeus as anew pearl in the Mediterranean Chinese naval vessels visited Piraeus in August 2010 while Greek air forcechief of sta Vasileios Klokozas and Chinese defenseminister Liang Guanglie met in Beijing that same

month to discuss increased military cooperation Else- where Beijing hopes to establish a permanent navalbase in the Gulf of AdenArabian Sea Te most likelyoption is the Yemeni port of Aden since the otheralternativesmdashOman and Djiboutimdashhave strong ties with NAO and Washington

China is also increasing its military footprint over-land by deploying military and police personnel tooversee foreign construction projects For example ithas reportedly deployed several thousand soldiers toKashmir raising Indian concerns about Chinese eortsto connect road and railway projects in the KarakoramMountains with Pakistanrsquos Gwadar port

The Four Seas StrategyAs Beijing embarks on its ldquolook westrdquo Silk Road devel-opment strategy Syriarsquos ldquolook eastrdquo policy aims to meetChina at the Caspian Sea Since 2009 Bashar al-Asad

Turkey In addition to bordering both the Black Seaand the Mediterranean urkey is a longtime NAOmember enjoys a customs union with the EU andserves as a major transit corridor for twelve multi-

national pipeline projects Te countryrsquos geostrate-gic location is also ideal for rail networks connecting Europe with the Middle East and Asia AccordinglyChina upgraded its bilateral ties with urkey to ldquostra-tegic cooperationrdquo when Prime Minister Wen visitedAnkara in October 2010

Wenrsquos trip came on the heels of the Anatolian Eagle joint air-combat exercises (conducted by Chinese andurkish forces) and the SCOrsquos Peace Mission 2010 (amilitary counterterrorism drill held in Kazakhstan)Anatolian Eagle had traditionally been a NAO

exercise between urkey the United States otherNAO members and Israel but Ankara seems to havereplaced Israel with China

Greece In June 2010 Chinese state-owned shipping giant COSCO took over management and fulloperational control of a major pier in Greecersquos largest port Piraeus in a pound28 billion thirty-ve-year dealthat includes planned expansion Given that Greececontrols one-h of the worldrsquos merchant eet and isthe largest client for Chinese shipbuilding yards this

eort aims to boost Chinese trade with emerging mar-kets around the Black Sea rim and the MediterraneanChina also plans to purchase a stake in the debt-riddenrailway network OSE build an airport on Crete andbuild a logistics center north of Athens

Military DimensionsBeijingrsquos current strategy centers on establishing Chi-nese footholds with military or geopolitical inuencealong the Indian Ocean littoral and into the PersianGulf and Mediterraneanmdasha ldquostring of pearlsrdquo As

shown by the map the pearls that Beijing has estab-lished in recent years fall along the sea routes used cen-turies ago to connect China and the MediterraneanBasin Specic pearls include the following

n upgraded military facilities on Hainan Island

n an upgraded airstrip on Woody Island east of Vietnam




xii Policy Focus 109

other than warrdquo Te military is also reportedly participating in the design and planning of domestic high-speed rail lines with military requirements becoming part of the development process

Policy RecommendationsIn response to Chinarsquos activities throughout theGreater Middle East the United States and its alliesshould take several steps to secure their energy inter-ests in the region and their broader security interests

Establish a common European energy security pol-

icy under NATOrsquos banner

NAO has prudently incorporated Eurasian energyissues into its new strategic doctrine Yet the China-ledShanghai Cooperation Organization is poised to forma Central Asian energy coalition that would in turncreate a self-sucient energy system eectively reduc-ing each individual EU countryrsquos bargaining positionon energy issues in the region As such the EU should work to establish common energy security policyunder NAOrsquos banner since many EU countries arealso NAO members Any such eort will require USstrategic leadership Specifically the EU and NAOshould cooperate on

1 Helping Israel and Greece build an underseapipeline to eed into the EUrsquos Southern Corridor

particularly in light o Israelrsquos recent oshore

natural gas discoveries Tis step is all the moreimportant because Iraqi gas exports do not seem viable before 2020 and Azeri gas exports are being broken up into smaller bundles and streamed in various directions making them insucient to meetEU demand

2 Formulating a NATO Eurasia policy toward

China NAO already has a mechanism in placeto engage Moscowmdashthe NAO Russia Councilmdashbut there is no equivalent mechanism for BeijingYet China has now entered the EUNAO energysecurity map and is competing for resources thereso the alliance must engage it as well Chinese andEuropean interest in the marketability of Israeli natu-ral gas provides additional room for cooperation

has promoted his Four Seas strategy to transform hiscountry into a trade hub in the Black Sea Mediterra-nean Sea Persian GulfArabian Sea and the Caspianaligning with urkey Iran and Azerbaijan in the pro-

cess With urkey emerging as Syriarsquos most signicantinvestor and trade partner and Iran remaining the guar-antor of Syriarsquos security the Ankara-Damascus-ehrantripartite has become the nucleus of an approach thataims to include Iraq and the Caucasus in a geographi-cal continuum linking the Four Seas

While the West views Syria Iran and similar coun-tries as strategic liabilities and pariah states China views them as strategic assets Since the US-led inva-sion of Iraq in 2003 Beijing has feared that Washing-tonrsquos Greater Middle East strategy entails encircling

China and creating a norm of toppling undemocraticregimes In response Beijing has increased economicand diplomatic ties with countries in the region thathave problematic relations with the United States andthe West

One major component of the Four Seas strategy isa focus on energy infrastructure and rail developmentOn the energy front Asad is taking steps to expand theArab Gas Pipeline in order to move gas from Egypt andIraq via Syria while simultaneously working with Azer-baijan and Russia on proposals to connect to Nabucco

pipelines reaching into urkey and Europe Moreoverby connecting with Iran the Arab Gas Pipeline couldeventually link with the urkmenistan-China pipelineand future Kazakhstan-China oil pipelines

Meanwhile Syriarsquos plans to build railways from itsMediterranean ports to southern Iraq mesh well withChinarsquos interests in building a railway network con-necting Central Asia the Middle East and EuropeBeijing is particularly interested in expanding high-speed rail negotiating with seventeen countries onsuch lines in addition to its own rapid domestic expan-sion Railways play a key military transport and logis-tics role in Chinarsquos efforts to project power acrossEurasia Te military has already reportedly used theShanghai-Nanjing express railway to transport troopsat speeds up to 350 kilometers per hour within China proper touting the practice as an ideal way to project personnel and light equipment in ldquomilitary operations

4







The Washington Institute for Near East Policy xv

Introduction

Plans for energy development in NAOrsquos adja-

cent Afghanistan theater have faced competitionfrom China as well US companies and the AsianDevelopment Bank (ADB) have long advocated a gas pipeline from urkmenistan through Afghanistan toconsumers in Pakistan and India culminating in the proposed urkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India(API) project API is ostensibly about the transportation of Caspian energy reserves to world mar-ket but it is also about the stabilization of Afghani-stan On December 11 2010 an intergovernmentalagreement was signed in Ashgabat to begin ADB-

funded pipeline construction in 2012 with the goalof becoming operational in 2014 Yet the project will have to contend with a rival proposal for Paki-stan and India to obtain gas through pipelines fromIran In March 2009 ehran and Islamabad closeda deal to build the IP portion of the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline with the view of bringing eitherNew Delhi or Beijing into the project

Elsewhere in the region China has entered the Iraqienergy scene and is now that countryrsquos top oil and gasinvestor Indeed Iraq is viewed as a key new option

for the Chinese oil industry diversifying the importsChina already receives from Iran and Saudi Arabia

Trough the lens of these and other energy devel-opments in the Greater Middle East this PolicyFocus examines how Chinarsquos increasing footprint inthe region impacts US and allied interests Te rstchapter covers Beijingrsquos energy diplomacy toward theregion alongside its Silk Road strategy of westwarddevelopment toward Europe via the Shanghai Cooper-ation Organization (SCO) Chapter 2 provides a snap-shot of Chinarsquos footprint in the region and the expand-

ing military dimensions of its energy strategy Chapter3 describes how China and the SCO are linking withthe nascent urkey-Syria-Iran nexus and how this shiaffects NAOrsquos posture Viewed through the lens of Syriarsquos Four Seas strategymdashwhich calls for integrationof areas surrounding the Caspian Sea Persian GulfArabian Sea Black Sea and Mediterranean Seamdashthis

O V E R T H E P A S T D E C A D E China has increased its

energy foothold in the Greater Middle East encompassing the mainly Islamic countries of Central Asiathe Caucasus Southwest Asia and parts of the Bal-kans and North Africa Much of this activity has beenrooted in Chinarsquos tendency to view energy security ingeopolitical and strategic terms rather than purely eco-nomic terms In particular Beijing has been concernedabout countering Western energy initiatives in theregion As one Chinese scholar argued projects such asthe Baku-bilisi-Ceyhan (BC) oil pipelinemdashthe rstregional pipeline directly supported and controlled by

Western countriesmdashimply American motives of con-taining Russia and China Various energy experts haveexpressed similar views regarding the BC as a strug-gle over control of the Caucasus and Central Asia andas a US attempt to weaken Russian and Iranian con-trol over Caspian energy resources Another Chineseanalyst described the situation aptly ldquoIn a sense tocontrol oil and gas pipelines is more important than to possess oil and gas resourcesrdquo

In 2002 motivated by these and other consider-ations Chinarsquos leaders decided that energy security was

ldquotoo important to be le to market forces alonerdquo andBeijing has prioritized the issue as a matter of nationalsecurity ever since At the same time as energy proj-ects bring China closer to the European Unionrsquos neigh-borhood NAO allies have found themselves having to factor Chinese eorts into more and more aspectsof their Eurasia policy

In 2009 for example the state-owned ChinaNational Petroleum Company completed a naturalgas pipeline across Central Asia to urkmenistanon the eastern shore of the Caspian Sea even as an

EU-backed consortium was working on the Nabucco pipeline to reach urkmenian gas reserves from the west In June 2010 urkmenian president Gur-banguly Berdimuhamedov announced a $2 billion project to connect the eastern pipeline with Chinato urkmenistanrsquos western resources jeopardizing Nabuccorsquos viability7




xvi Policy Focus 109

the United States and its allies can work with variouscountries in the region to counterbalance troubling trends resulting from Chinarsquos activities

linkage is forming the foundation of an emerging energy-based regional security architecture Te con-cluding chapter provides recommendations on how







I N D I A N O C E A N

Bay of Bengal Arabian

Sea

Black S e a

C a s p

i a n

S e a

S t r a

i t o f M

a l a c c a

Baku

Kabul

Sana

Cairo

Riyadh

Tehran

Astana

Moscow

Ankara

Bishkek

Baghdad

Tashkent

Dushanbe

Ashgabat

Tbilisi

Islamabad

New Delhi

Mogadishu

Istanbul

Kyzllorda

Urumqi

C

La

Bandar Abbas

Ceyhan

Aqaba

Erzurum

al-Arish

Homs

Asaluyeh

Karachi

Herat

Kashgar

Atryau

100degE90degE80degE70degE60degE50degE

Irrawaddy transportatiocorridor

Potential IPI extension to Kashgar

Hambantota port facility

Potential Adennaval base

Port Sudanfacility

Kra Canal

Intelligence-gathering facility

Gwadar Naval Base and surveillancefacilities

Piraeus port facility

Sittwedeep-water port facility

Chittagong port facility

0

0

500 mi

500 km

copy2011 Washington Institute for Near East Policy

Sources See copyright page

Ch

Ancient Silk Road andArab sea routes

Karakoram Highway

Oil or gas pipeline

Plannedproposed gas pipeline

Chinese strategic ldquopearlrdquo

Fig 1 Chinarsquos Silk Road Strategy and String of Pearls



The Washington Institute for Near East Policy 3

1 | Chinarsquos Strategic Shift

and infrastructure construction particularly the steelcement and aluminum industries Growing demand inthe transportation sector has increased energy usage inthe steel and aluminum industries as well along withother manufacturing sectors

In May 2009 the US Energy Information Admin-istration released its annual report International Energy Outlook 2009 with Projections to 2030 Onesection compared Chinarsquos projected net increase inindustrial use through 2030 with a group of countriesfrom the Organisation for Economic Co-operationand Development (OECD) China led all nations with an estimated increase nearly nine times that of theOECD as a whole

The lsquoGo Outrsquo Strategy and TaiwanIn 1993 China became a net oil-importing countryand the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) regimebegan looking to Africa and the Middle East for potential supplies oday the countryrsquos top oil suppli-ers are Angola Saudi Arabia and Iran As for naturalgas the resource has traditionally played a minimalrole in China (at only 3 percent of the countryrsquos energy

S I N C E C H I N A B E C A M E an energy importer in

1993 it has adopted a ldquogo outrdquo strategy to procureenergy assets abroad Enabled by the Shanghai Coop-eration Organization (SCO) Beijing is reviving thestrong economic connection between China and theMiddle East for centuries the trade carried along theSilk Road was important to the economies of bothareas Along much the same route as the Silk Roadand along the sea trade routes between China and theMiddle East Beijing is building a modern grid of pipe-lines roads and railways for its enegy supplies in addi-tion to addressing maritime concerns

Snapshot of CurrentEnergy ConsumptionIn August 2010 a report from the Paris-based Interna-tional Energy Agency stated that China had becomethe worldrsquos number-one energy consumer surpassing the United States Specically China consumed 2252billion tons of oil equivalent in 2009mdashabout 4 per-cent more than the United States which consumed210 billion tons of oil equivalent (Te oil equivalentmetric represents all forms of energy consumed crude

oil nuclear power coal natural gas renewable sourcesetc) Chinarsquos energy consumption mix is dierent fromAmericarsquos howevermdashdomestic-supplied coal remainsthe countryrsquos dominant source of energy at nearly two-thirds of its total mix (see g 2) Tis situation is likelyto persist given that China holds the worldrsquos third-larg-est coal reserves (estimated at 1145 billion short tonsof recoverable coal) placing aer the United States andRussia Nevertheless Beijing is taking steps to reduceits level of greenhouse gas emissions and expand itsshare of clean energy with the goal of increasing natu-

ral gas to 10 percent of its overall energy mix by 2020Tese eorts include investments in wind solar hydro-electric and nuclear power

China has enjoyed double-digit annual growthfor the past decade (with the exception of the 2009global recession) his has been fueled not by con-sumer demand but by energy-intensive heavy industry

Coal71

Oil19

Hydroelectric6

Natural Gas3

Nuclear1

Other

Renewables02

Total Energy Consumption in China by Type (2008)

Fig 2 Chinarsquos Energy Mix (source US Energy Information

Administration ldquoEIA Country Analysis Brief Chinardquo November 2010)




4 Policy Focus 109

and roads to carry energy supplies from the MiddleEast Over the years various journalists policymakersand scholars began to refer to this ldquogo outrdquo approachas the Silk Road Strategy Chinese officials have in

turn co-opted this narrative in order to evoke com-mon historical ties along the Silk Road as they pursueexpanded relations with countries in Central Asiathe Caucasus and the Middle East Although the SilkRoad terminology has not become an ocial part of the CCPrsquos declaratory policy7 Chinarsquos recent overlandand maritime endeavors follow much the same routesas the ancient Silk Road and the sea routes which were in premodern times less used than overlandroutes (see g 1)

Role of the ShanghaiCooperation OrganizationIn 2002 when Hu Jintao took over the Chinese presi-dency he and Premier Wen Jiabao decided that thesecurity of petroleum and other scarce resources wascrucial not only to sustained economic developmentbut also to Chinarsquos national security In 2003 Wencommissioned seven small research groups to preparean unprecedented long-term national energy securitystrategy And in 2005 the State Council establisheda National Leading Energy Group headed by Wen

At the same time the three major state-owned energycorporationsmdashthe China National Petroleum Com- pany Sinopec and the China National Oshore OilCorporation (CNOOC)mdashbegan to step up domesticexploration activities build strategic reserves and takea ldquoneo-mercantilist approach to acquiring direct con-trol of overseas energy production and suppliesrdquo On January 2 2010 the State Council reorganized theLeading Energy Group and announced the establish-ment of a National Energy Commission (NEC) under Wenrsquos leadership with twenty-three members from the

Ministry of Foreign Affairs Ministry of State Secu-rity and PLA General Staff Department headed byGen Zhang Qinsheng former chief of military intel-ligence (see table 1) Beijingrsquos inclusion of the foreignaffairs security and military intelligence apparatusin the NEC reects the regimersquos deep concerns aboutenergy security

mix) and has been domestically supplied from regionssuch as Sichuan province Shaanganing province Xin- jiang Uyghur Autonomous Region Qinghai provinceand some oshore elds in the South China Sea For-

eign imports began to trickle into the country in Sep-tember 2006 however when the Guangdong Dapeng liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal went opera-tional And given the governmentrsquos plan to increase itsnatural gas mix and reduce greenhouse emissions suchimports will continue to increase namely via CentralAsianCaspian Basin pipelines and LNG shipmentsfrom Australia Indonesia Malaysia and Qatar

In short the westward direction of Chinarsquos energy policy has been driven in part by economic ratio-nalemdashheightened demand for energy imports since

1993 as well as organic economic growth and integra-tion with neighboring states in Central Asia BecauseChina became increasingly dependent on externalenergy supplies to feed its economic development andthereby preserve the CCP regimersquos legitimacy Beijing formulated the top-down ldquogo outrdquo ( zouchuqu zhanlue)energy-based foreign policy in 1999 aimed at procur-ing energy equity abroad

Yet the regime was hesitant to rely on maritimeenergy routes given the bumpy nature of Sino-USrelations and the large-scale presence of US naval

patrols along these routes In particular Beijing fearedthat a potential military clash in the aiwan Straitcould result in a naval embargo on energy suppliesChina also faces a ldquoMalacca Dilemmardquomdashcurrently80 percent of its oil imports pass through the Straitof Malacca a chokepoint that is vulnerable to both piracy and any US blockade efforts in the event of conict o aiwan In response to these risks Beijing has been increasingly militarizing its energy security policy and building up naval capabilities to protectits global interests In line with President Hu Jintaorsquos

New Historic Missions strategy which underscores thePeoplersquos Liberation Army (PLA) role in safeguarding national interests overseas ( Xin shiji xin jieduan wojunlishi shiming ) China is expanding its naval presencethroughout the Gulf of Aden and Southeast Asia

At the same time the regime has hedged againstmaritime risks by building overland pipelines railways




Chinarsquos Strategic Shift Christina Lin

Table 1 Chinese National Energy Commission Members January 2010

NAME AGESTATE ENERGYCOMMISSION

17TH CENTRALCOMMITTEE GOVERNMENT

Wen Jiabao 68 Chairman Politburo Standing

Committee member

Premier

Li Keqiang 55 Vice chairman Politburo Standing Committee member

Vice Premier

You Quan 56 Member Alternate Deputy Secretary-General StateCouncil

Zhu Zhixin 61 Member Full member Director of Central FinanceGeneral Oce

Yang Jiechi 60 Member Full member Minister of Foreign Aairs

Zhang Ping 64 Member Director of General Oce

Full member Chairman National Developmentand Reform Commission

Wan Gang 58 Member Nonmember Minister of Science and

echnologyLi Yizhong 65 Member Full member Minister of Industry and

Information

Geng Huichang 59 Member Full member Minister of State Security

Xie Xuren 63 Member Full member Minister of Finance

Xu Shaoshi 59 Member Full member Minister of Land and Resources

Zhou Shengxian 61 Member Full member Minister of EnvironmentalProtection

Li Shenglin 64 Member Full member Minister of Communication andransport

Chen Lei 56 Member Full member Minister of Water Resources

Chen Deming 61 Member Alternate Minister of Commerce

Zhou Xiaochuan 62 Member Full member Governor Peoplersquos Bank of China

Li Rongrong 66 Member Full member Chairman State-Owned AssetsSupervision and AdministrationCommission

Xiao Jie 53 Member Full member Chief of State Administration of axation

Luo Lin 55 Member Alternate State Administration of WorkSafety

Liu Mingkang 64 Member Full member Chairman China Banking Regulatory Commission

Wang Xudong 64 Member Full member Chairman National ElectricityRegulatory Commission

Zhang Qinsheng 62 Member Full member Deputy chief General Sta Department

Zhang Guobao 66 Member DeputyDirector of theGeneral Oce

Nonmember Vice Chairman NationalDevelopment and ReformCommission Director StateEnergy Administration




6 Policy Focus 109

In particular Chinarsquos strategy toward Central Asia hascentered on using nancial means to create dependencybuilding on increased oilgas and politico-militarycooperation Beijing has already signed several military

agreements with Central Asian states and in doing somoved into Russiarsquos sphere of influence According toTrassy Marketos an ocial with the Greek Ministryof Foreign Affairs Moscow has neither the resourcesnor the will to meet Chinarsquos challenge in that region7He also argued that Chinarsquos next goal would be to seeUS troops move out of the region creating a favorable vacuum for China to ll without signicant challengesfrom Russia Similarly Robert Manning director of long-range energy and regionalglobal aairs at the USNational Intelligence Council predicted that Central

Asia would become Chinarsquos space by 2030 rather thanremaining a post-Soviet space

In light of its ongoing strategic shift China willlikely leverage its increasing political commercialand military inuence more proactively to protect itsenergy interests Just as the state-controlled Russianenergy firm Gazprom weaponizes energy by cutting o gas supplies to target countries when it disapprovesof their foreign policy Beijing also perceives energy asa weapon to be used for coercive purposes Tis viewgoes hand in hand with Chinarsquos unwillingness to rely

on unfettered international markets for its energy suppliesmdashas much as possible the regime seeks to controlthe routes by which energy reaches China

o address these concerns Beijing has turned tothe Shanghai Cooperation Organization as a meansof transforming the traditional portion of the SilkRoad across the Greater Middle East into an ldquoenergy

roadrdquo Established in 2001 the SCO consists of China Russia and the four Central Asian republicsof Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan ajikistan and Uzbeki-stan along with four observer states (Iran PakistanIndia and Mongolia) Over the years China hasused the SCO to achieve economic integration withthe Central AsiaCaspian region In doing so it hassought to meet three main goals (1) pacifying therestive Xinjiang province home to signicant Mus-lim-Uyghur separatist forces (who call the area ldquoEasturkestanrdquo) (2) diversifying energy sources from

the Persian Gulf and hedging a gainst any maritimeenergy embargoes and (3) projecting Chinese hege-mony across Eurasia Chinese scholar Guo Xuetang echoed this view arguing that the SCO must be fur-ther strengthened in order to promote economic inte-gration cooperation on energy military and secu-rity matters as well as stability against extremismterrorism and separatism (the latter three elementsreferring primarily to the Muslim-Uyghur issue in Xinjiang) oward these ends Guo suggested work-ing with Russia to bring Afghanistan and urkmeni-

stan into the organization and using SCO coordina-tion to build an oil pipeline from Kazakhstan to Iran via urkmenistan




2 | An Increasing Footprint

counterbalancing US-supported Arab states such as

Saudi Arabia and neighboring kingdoms More spe-cically it believes that the US Navy is incapable of completely closing the Gulf so long as Chinese-alliedIran controls the eastern flank ehran is also a keynode in Chinarsquos overland and maritime Silk RoadAccordingly Beijing is looking to connect railways with Iran urkey and Europe and perhaps establish anaval base on one of Iranrsquos islands

On some levels the uncertain nature of energyrelations between China and Iran seems to belie thestrategic importance of their broader relationship

he bulk of Chinarsquos Gulf energy relations are withIran Saudi Arabia and Iraq Yet according to ana-lyst Erica Downs while Beijing sees the Saudis as areliable partner and Iraq as a land of opportunity forthe China National Petroleum Company (CNPC) it views Iran as a tough place to do business Despitethe publicity attending recent multibillion-dollarSino-Iranian deals in actuality Chinese investmentis less than meets the eye According to Downs Ira-nian media tend to inate gures in order to empha-size that Iran is not isolated whereas the Chinese

media downplay them for stealthrsquos sake For examplesome investments are ldquocommittedrdquo in memoranda of understanding between ehran and Beijing but notnecessarily finalized And the details of any givenldquoagreementrdquo are oen opaque whether the reportedtransaction is a letter of interest buy-back agreementor memorandum of understanding Moreover Chi-nese oil companies ldquohave a history of signing agree-ments for projects in which they have no intention of making substantial investments until aer sanctionsare lied and geopolitical risks reduced CNPC for

instance signed a contract with Saddam Husseinrsquosgovernment for al-Ahdab oil eld in 199 held o oninvesting due to UN sanctions and then inked a newagreement with the postwar Iraqi regime in 2008rdquoAs analyst Afshin Molavi put it energy-wise and eco-nomically Iran needs China as a partner more thanChina needs Iran7

C H I N A rsquo S W I D E S P R E A D E N E R G Y investments

have extended to most every corner of the GreaterMiddle East particularly the Caspian Basin and keynodes such as Iran urkey and Greece In many casesthis growing economic foothold has translated intoa military foothold as well given the large-scale par-ticipation of Chinese army personnel in energy proj-ects and the ldquostrategic partnershipsrdquo that Beijing hasformed with key states

Caspian SeaIn the Caspian Sea Basin China has invested most

heavily in Kazakhstan urkmenistan and Iran inaddition to increasing its ties with Azerbaijan Itsmain energy infrastructure projects in the region arethe Kazakhstan-China oil pipeline (completed in July2009 with maximum discharge of 20 million tonnes per year) and the urkmenistan-China gas pipeline(completed in December 2009 with maximum dis-charge of 40 billion cubic meters per year also knownas the Central AsiandashChina pipeline) (see g 1) Bei- jing has invested in Iranrsquos North Azadegan oil eld andSouth Pars gas eld as well between 2005 and 2010

Chinese rms signed an estimated $120 billion worthof contracts with the Iranian hydrocarbon sector Inaddition Beijing is considering infrastructure projectsthat would eventually link China and Iran via pipe-lines railways and roads allowing the Peoplersquos Repub-lic to import Iranian energy sources overland in casecurrent maritime routes in the unstable Persian Gulf region are threatened And as described previouslyurkmenian president Berdimuhamedov announceda $2 billion project in June 2010 to connect the east-ern pipeline with China to urkmenistanrsquos western

resources which had been earmarked for the EU-backed Nabucco pipeline

A Key Node in the Persian GulfIran is of particular significance to China becauseit borders both the Caspian Sea and the PersianGulf In the Gulf Beijing views Iran as a means of




8 Policy Focus 109

hedging its bets in the face of a potential nuclear IranAccording to one analyst Riyadh believes that ldquoengag-ing its regional rivalrsquos main ally in Beijing will helpensure that its interests are taken into account with

respect to Iranrdquo7At the same time Iraq is emerging as a potential

wild card among Chinarsquos energy and strategic interestsRecently the Organization of the Petroleum Export-ing Countries (OPEC) readjusted Iraqi oil reserve esti-mates to 1431 billion barrelsmdash25 percent larger than previous estimates and ranking above Iranrsquos 13 billionbarrels China has already stepped up its investment portfolio in Iraq and is now the countryrsquos top oil andgas investor In November 2008 for example CNPCand China North Industries Corporation set up a joint

venture and signed a twenty-year development con-tract for al-Ahdab oil eld In June 2009 CNPC andBP won a bid for a twenty-year technical service con-tract for Rumaila oil eld a ldquosuper giantrdquo with 1 bil-lion barrels of proven reserves wo months later Sino- pec expanded into the country by purchasing Swedishoil firm Addax which has operations in Iraq In late2009 CNPC set up a consortium with the Frenchrm otal and the Malaysian rm Petronas to developHalfaya oil field And in 2010 the China NationalOffshore Oil Corporation partnered with the state-

run urkish Petroleum Corporation in a twenty-yearcontract to develop the lucrative Maysan oil field insouthern Iraq

Iraq currently produces about 25 million barrels of oil per day (bpd) with the goal of reaching 4 millionby 2015 Yet the International Energy Agency recentlyannounced that Chinarsquos oil needs will increase to 113million bpd by 2015 meaning that it will still rely heav-ily on its current top suppliers Saudi Arabia Angolaand Iran

Moreover security continues to be a problem in

Iraq For example on September 2 2010 China raninto problems when local authorities raided CNPCrsquosal-Ahdab facilities demanding to see the companyrsquoscontract with the Iraqi government and alleging mis-management In general the Chinese have neitherintegrated with the local community nor createdlocal jobs instead importing most of their oil workers

Geopolitically however Iran remains a strategic partner for China in the Shanghai Cooperation Orga-nization (SCO) And Beijing views Gulf allies as moreimportant than Mediterranean allies because they are

close to the Arabian Sea the Gulf of Aden the RedSea East Africa the Indian Ocean and the Pakistani port of Gwadar where China has established a foot-hold and hopes to eventually build a naval base

Beijing is also attempting to balance its Iran inter-ests in its relationship with Saudi Arabia Since 2005 when King Abdullah ascended to the throne Riyadhhas adopted a ldquolook eastrdquo policy and views China asa steady demand market for oil exports More thanhalf of Saudi oil now flows to Asia compared withthe 14 percent that ows to the United States Saudi

Aramco owns a renery in Chinarsquos Qingdao provinceand has another in Fujian while Chinese firms havebegun to invest in Saudi infrastructure and industryincluding the recently completed light railway to transport Hajj pilgrims to Mecca Meanwhile bilateraltrade reached $40 billion in 2010 with the kingdomremaining Chinarsquos largest trading partner in the Mid-dle East Yet Sino-Saudi cooperation extends beyondoil and trade interests During the 1980s China supplied the Saudis with nuclear-capable CSS-2 missilesand Washington is now concerned that Riyadh may

seek to create a deterrent against Iran by acquiring more Chinese-designed missiles as well as dual-keynuclear warheads from Pakistan

Both countries are also stepping up their militarycooperation especially on the naval front On Novem-ber 2 2010 a Chinese naval escort otilla arrived atthe port of Jeddah the rst-ever call to Saudi Arabiaby Chinese naval vessels Rear Admiral Abdullah al-Sultan commander of the Saudi navyrsquos Western Fleetreceived the otilla and expressed hope that the visit would enhance bilateral military cooperation he

Jeddah stop came on the heels of PLA naval port callsearlier in 2010 to the United Arab Emirates EgyptGreece and Italy with China steadily stepping upits naval presence in the Gulf of Aden and Mediter-ranean Although the United States remains SaudiArabiarsquos key security guarantor (with a recent $60 bil-lion arms package for example) the kingdom is also




An Increasing Footprint Christina Lin

it already has an agreement to connect its power grids with those of Egypt Iraq Lebanon Jordan Libya andSyria According to analyst Selcuk Colakoglu Bei- jing ldquowants to use urkey in logistical terms to reach

Europe and build the contemporary Silk RoadrdquoIndeed China recently upgraded its bilateral ties

with urkey to ldquostrategic cooperationrdquo when Premier Wen Jiabao visited Ankara in October 2010 Histrip came on the heels of the Anatolian Eagle jointair combat exercises conducted by the Peoplersquos Lib-eration Army Air Force (PLAAF) and the urkish airforce from September 20 to October 4 Tose exer-cises also overlapped the SCOrsquos Peace Mission 2010a military counterterrorism drill held in KazakhstanSeptember 9ndash25 Anatolian Eag le has traditionally

been a NAO exercise between urkey the UnitedStates other NAO members and Israel (a memberof NAOrsquos Mediterranean Dialogue) Yet Ankaraseems to have replaced Israel with China During Wenrsquos trip to Ankaramdashthe first visit by a Chinese premier in eight yearsmdashhe signed strategic coopera-tion agreements regarding trade railway construc-tion infrastructure communications and culturalexchanges hese agreements also called on bothcountries to conduct bilateral trade in their own cur-rencies excluding the US dollar

As Washington and Israel grow increasingly con-cerned about Beijingrsquos expanding military ties withurkey and Iran legitimate security issues have beenraised regarding possible divulgence of technologi-cal operational and other military secrets from theUnited States and NAO to China As a former USMarine Corps ghter pilot and Pentagon technologysecurity ocial put it allowing PLAAF personnel tosee NAO combat tactics up close could inadvertentlyimprove Chinarsquos war-ghting capabilities MoreoverAnkara and Beijing have expressed interest in holding

future joint military exercises According to one ur-key specialist the Anatolian exercises should be seenas a ldquodebutrdquo and the two militaries will likely continuesuch cooperation ldquowhenever applicablerdquo Similarly aChinese source expressed hope ldquothat the Chinese AirForce regularly trains in urkey and the two countriessuccessfully develop other areas of cooperationrdquo

he September raid underscored the importance of engagement with the local population and the con-tinued challenge of Baghdadrsquos legitimacy among pro- vincial authorities Te continued lack of a national

hydrocarbon law in Iraq is another problem one thathas prompted foreign oil companies from China andelsewhere to sign with the Kurdistan Regional Govern-ment to develop energy-rich regions in northern Iraq

In strategic terms Iraqrsquos fragile state represents assure of sorts in the emerging Chinese-Russian coali-tion stretching from Iran in the East to urkey in the West Te trajectory that Iraq takes as it continues torebuildmdashwhether toward the Sino-Russian or US Western axismdashwill play a key role in the regionrsquos secu-rity architecture

As for Saudi Arabia it will likely remain Chinarsquosreliable energy supplier for the foreseeable future givenits current production level of 109 million bpd morethan double that of OPECrsquos second-largest producer(Iran at 4 million bpd) Te kingdom has barred for-eign ownership of upstream activities however soChina has diversified to other suppliers (Iraq IranAngola Central Asia) and resources (natural gas along with solar wind nuclear and hydropower)

The Black Sea and the Mediterranean

urkey is another key node in Chinarsquos Silk Road strat-egy In addition to bordering both the Black Sea andthe Mediterranean it is a longtime NAO memberenjoys a customs union with the EU (and prospects of eventual accession) and serves as a key energy transitcorridor for twelve multinational pipeline projectsEight of these are existing networks the Blue Streamgas pipeline the Baku-bilisi-Ceyhan (BC) oil pipeline the Russia-urkey gas pipeline ( urusgas)the Kirkuk-Iskenderun oil pipeline the Baku-bilisi-Ezurum gas pipeline the Iran-urkey gas pipeline the

Arab Gas Pipeline and the Interconnector urkey-Greece-Italy gas network Te other four projects arein the proposal or planning stages the Nabucco gas pipeline the rans-Caspian gas pipeline the Samsun-Ceyhan oil pipeline and the Iraq-urkey gas pipelineurkeyrsquos geostrategic location is ideal for rail networksconnecting Europe with the Middle East and Asia and




10 Policy Focus 109

OSE build an airport on Crete and build a logisticscenter north of Athens

In this manner China envisions creating a networkof ports logistics centers and railways to distribute its

products to and across Europemdasha sort of modern-daySilk Road And as China increases its economic pres-ence its military planners are watching with increas-ing aspirations In addition to investments in overland pipelines roads and railways through the Caspianregion Chinese economic assistance to Burma Ban-gladesh Sri Lanka Pakistan and Greece form part of the militaryrsquos String of Pearls strategy aimed at ensur-ing the free ow of energy and trade in the event of aaiwan conict and resultant US naval blockade

Military DimensionsString o Pearls strategy Tis approach centers onestablishing Chinese footholds with military or geopo-litical inuence along the Indian Ocean littoral and intothe Persian Gulf and Mediterranean (see g 1) Severalelements are needed to carry out such a strategy

n Obtaining access to airfelds and ports Tis canbe accomplished by building new facilities or estab-lishing cordial relations with nations that already possess key facilitites In some cases securing such

access involves heavily subsidizing constructionof new facilities in other countries with the under-standing that they will be made available as needed

n Increasing diplomatic relations Tis is to ensurethat airspace and shipping lanes remain clear and isoen accompanied by mutually benecial trade andexport agreements Since securing a string of pearlsrelies on linking a series of disparate locations it isimportant to ensure that each pearl is safe from any potential threats by neighboring states

n Modernizing military orces A modern militarycan move eectively to hold individual pearls whennecessary It will also be prepared for related actionsand exercises

As shown by the map the pearls that Beijing has

Indeed Beijing seems intent on maintaining a mili-tary presence on NAOrsquos southern ank in urkey Itis also hoping to enter urkeyrsquos domestic defense mar-ket in part by bidding to supply the countryrsquos national

missile defense system with the HQ-9 missile basedon Russiarsquos S-3007 In addition both Ankara andBeijing are interested in stabilizing Afghanistan aerUS and NAO troops withdraw It was thereforetelling when PLAAF SU-2s en route to urkeychose to refuel at the Gayem al-Muhammad air basenear the town of Birjand Iran situated opposite thelarge American base near the Afghan-Iranian bordertown of Herat

Te Anatolian drill also underlined Chinarsquos searchfor potential strategic partners as it grows in stature

and seeks to become a rule-maker in global politicsnot just a rule-follower Meanwhile urkey has dem-onstrated an ability to bring dierent perspectives tothe table on persistent regional issues involving IranIraq and the Palestinians reflecting Ankararsquos inde- pendent foreign policy thinking since the Justice andDevelopment Party came to power in 2002 As Chinarsquosambitions for geopolitical and geo-economic inuencein Central Asia the Balkans and the Middle East havegrown Beijing has come to see urkey as a potentialgateway to those regions

China is also conducting dollar diplomacy inurkeyrsquos neighborhood In June 2010 Chinesestate-owned shipping giant COSCO took overmanagement and full operational control of a major pier in Greecersquos largest port Piraeus in a pound28 bil-lion deal to lease the pier and manage two containerterminals for the next thirty-five years COSCO isalso building a new pier to handle larger ships andtriple the volume of cargo the port can handleGiven that Greece controls one-fifth of the worldrsquosmerchant fleet and is the largest client for Chi-

nese shipbuilding yards this effort aims to boostChinese trade with emerging markets around theBlack Sea rim and the Mediterranean Other dealsinclude the exchange of know-how between ChinarsquosHuawei echnologies and the Greek telecommu-nications firm OE as well as plans for China to purchase a stake in the debt-ridden railway network





As discussed in the previous section China has alsoadded the Greek port of Piraeus as a new pearl in theMediterranean and it is considering similar steps inYemen a potential pearl in the Gulf of Aden7 On

August 9 2010 the Chinese destroyer Guangzhou andfrigate Chaohu stopped in Piraeus following escortmissions in the Gulf of Aden Tis was followed by anAugust 24 meeting in Beijing between Greek air forcechief of sta Vasileios Klokozas and Chinese defenseminister Liang Guanglie intended to boost militaryexchange and cooperation Previously in Decem-ber 2009 Rear Admiral Yin Zhou expressed Beijingrsquosintentions to establish a permanent naval base in theGulf of AdenArabian Sea where China is currentlyengaged in antipiracy eorts to safeguard its oil ship-

ments from Africa Chinese warships have beenusing ports in Oman Yemen and Djibouti for resup- ply but Djibouti is mainly a NAO stronghold andOman is considered a US protectorate AccordinglyChina is eyeing Yemenrsquos Aden port for a base7 Tese port calls and Chinarsquos overall string-of-pearls approachhave prompted many analysts to draw parallels witheenth-century Admiral Zheng Hersquos reasure Fleet voyages to the Arabian Peninsula heralding the rise of Chinarsquos international inuence once again7

Overland inrastructure strategy As China increasesits naval presence along the Indian Ocean littoralit is also increasing its military footprint overland bydeploying PLA troops and Peoplersquos Armed PoliceForce (PAPF) personnel to oversee energy and infra-structure projects Te PAPF is a component of Chi-narsquos armed forces under the dual leadership of the StateCouncil and the Central Military Commission7 Boththe PLA and PAPF actively participate in construction projects in the energy (including hydropower) transportation and communications sectors7 building

schools hospitals airports power stations highways water conservancy facilities and television transmis-sion facilities In Africa for example China has usedsuch projects as a platform to establish cooperationin other sectors including enhanced military tiesthroughout the continent7 As described in chap-ter 1 this approachmdasha continuation of President Hu

established in recent years fall along the sea routes usedcenturies ago to connect China and the MediterraneanBasin particularly those extending from the coast of mainland China through the South China Sea the

Strait of Malacca across the Indian Ocean and intothe Arabian Sea and Persian Gulf Te regime is build-ing relationships and developing a naval forward pres-ence along the sea lanes of communication that con-nect China to the Middle East Specic pearls include


n an upgraded airstrip on Woody Island located inthe Paracel archipelago about 300 nautical miles eastof Vietnam


n the Kra Canal in southern Tailand which links theSouth China Sea to the Indian Ocean


n a deep-water port under construction in Sittwe Burma




n a potential extension of the IPI pipeline throughIslamabad and over the Karakoram Highway to

Kashgar in Xinjiang province intended to transportfuel into China


n upgraded facilities in Port Sudan which provide vitalaccess to the Suez Canal and the Horn of Africa




12 Policy Focus 109

Motorized Infantry Division reportedly either atUrumqi or in the Karakoram Mountains Home tothe Lop Nor nuclear test base and the Second ArtilleryCorps strategic forces Xinjiang also includes detection

and tracking radars covering Central Asia and Chinarsquosnorthern border two regiments of H-6 long-rangenuclear-capable bombers with stand-o missile launch-ers a ground-based antisatellite laser system and DF-15D guided tactical ballistic missiles he buildup isindicative of increased Chinese intentions and capacityfor undertaking a proactive and potentially interven-tionist role in Central Asia allowing Beijing to proj-ect military power into the region to safeguard criticalenergy supplies Indeed troops from Xinjiang formedthe ground elements of the PLA contingent that took

part in the Shanghai Cooperation OrganizationrsquosPeace Mission 200 joint military exercise

As mentioned previously Chinarsquos strategy of rerout-ing energy supplies overland in order to sidestep mari-time risk hinges on its investment in ports such asGwadar in Pakistan along with rapid highway railand pipeline construction projects Tese include theKarakoram Highway and t welve other major roadsto connect Xinjiang with neighboring countries suchas Russia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan and Pakistan as well as ongoing high-speed rail negotiations with

seventeen countries Beijing also hopes to establish a pipeline (as indicated above perhaps an extension of the IPI project) to carry Iranian gas to Chinarsquos west-ern provinces aken together these projects wouldreduce a 16500-kilometer journey to just 2500 kilo-meters And when high-speed rail links are completedChina will be able to transport cargo from its eastern provinces to Gwadar at the mouth of the Persian Gulf within forty-eight hours

Jintaorsquos 2004 New Historic Missions strategymdashis alsobeing replicated in Central Eurasia and the MiddleEast7 In Afghanistan and Iraq for example Chinahas deployed troops to help guard its energy and infra-

structure projects7 Moreover the PLA and PAPF aretraining Afghan and Iraqi soldiers on PLA bases inNanjing capital of Chinarsquos Jiangsu province77

Beijing has also reportedly deployed several thou-sand soldiers to Kashmir where India has long wor-ried that the PLA is working on roads and railway projects in the Karakoram Mountains to connect with Pakistanrsquos Gwadar port7 According to Westernand regional intelligence sources these personnel areunder the command of Chinarsquos Xinjiang military dis-trict a Muslim-Uyghur-dominated region that borders

Central Asia7 On December 2 2010 representativesfrom Chinarsquos Ministry of Commerce Ministry of For-eign Affairs Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Regionand Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps(PCC) attended the fourteenth session of the China-Pakistan Joint Committee in Economy rade Scienceand echnology in Islamabad where they discussedlarge projects such as the Karakoram Highway Gwa-dar port and Duddar lead-zinc mining constructionhe PCC is a paramilitary organization under jointgovernment Communist Party and military control

tasked with land reclamation agricultural productionand economic development particularly with regardto large transportation projects (highways airfieldsrailroads) water infrastructure projects and oil andnatural gas infrastructure

Xinjiang district itself has seen a steady militarybuildup over the years It is unusual among Chinesemilitary districts in that it contains a signicant num-ber of combat troops along with the 11th Highland




3 | The Four Seas Strategy

Asadrsquos vision appears to be based on the EUrsquos idea of

enlargement throughout the Tree Seas region (ie theCaspian Black and Mediterranean Seas) Initiallythe union formulated a wider Black Sea region conceptto designate the strategic space encompassing Roma-nia Bulgaria urkey Armenia Azerbaijan GeorgiaRussia Ukraine and Moldova but Azerbaijani offi-cials called for a broader concept that encompassedthe three seas In addition the European Commis-sion currently supports the EU 4 Seas project fundedby the EUrsquos Seventh Framework Programme Slatedfor 2009ndash2011 the project involves four EU countries

(Estonia France Italy Spain) and four non-EU coun-tries (Azerbaijan Iceland urkey Ukraine) studying ldquosubregional multilateralismrdquo in the area surrounding the Baltic Black Caspian and Mediterranean Seas with a view toward EU enlargement7 Yet given delaysin urkeyrsquos EU accession and Syriarsquos Association Agree-ment with the union Ankara and Damascus appear tohave turned eastward and replaced the BalticNorth-ern Europe focus with a shi toward the Persian GulfArabian Sea including Iran

In looking at these various rings of regionalism and

their impact on enlargement and eventual globaliza-tion analysts Lembke and Voinescu described theEU as a Russian matryoshkamdasha set of nesting dollsof decreasing sizes placed one inside another akin to viewing the EU macro-region as ldquoa sum of differentsmaller regionsrdquo urkey and Syria thus appear to becreating their own matryoshka doll outside the EU with the eventual goal of broader trade integration westward toward the EU and eastward toward Asia

Damascus as Chinarsquos lsquoNing Jiu Lirsquo While the West views Syria Iran and similar countriesas strategic liabilities and pariah states China viewsthem as strategic assets Since the US-led invasionof Iraq in 2003 Beijing has feared that WashingtonrsquosGreater Middle East strategy entails encircling Chinaand creating a norm of toppling undemocratic regimes which implicitly challenges the Chinese Communist

A S B E I J I N G E M B A R K S on its ldquolook westrdquo Silk

Road development strategy Syriarsquos ldquolook eastrdquo policyaims to meet China at the Caspian Sea Since 2009Syrian president Bashar al-Asad has promoted hisFour Seas strategy to transform his country into atrade hub in the regions bordering the Black SeaMediterranean Sea Persian GulfArabian Sea andthe Caspian7 Damascus has therefore been aligning with key countries that lie on these shores namelyurkey Iran and Azerbaijan According to one ana-lyst Syriarsquos economic relationship with Ankara lies atthe center of this strategy particularly the two coun-

triesrsquo eorts to connect their oil and gas infrastructure with the regionrsquos expanding pipeline networks Withurkey emerging as Syriarsquos most significant investorand trade partner and Iran remaining the guarantor of Syriarsquos security the Ankara-Damascus-ehran trianglehas become the nucleus of an approach that aims toinclude Iraq and the Caucasus in a geographical con-tinuum linking the Four Seas

A Matryoshka of RegionsAsad peddled the Four Seas idea during a May 2009

conference with urkish president Abdullah Gul stat-ing ldquoOnce the economic space between Syria urkeyIraq and Iran [becomes] integrated we would link theMediterranean Caspian Black Sea and the [Persian]Gulfhellip We arenrsquot just important in the Middle EasthellipOnce we link these four seas we become the compul-sory intersection of the whole world in investmenttransport and morerdquo And during a December 2009speech before the Syrian parliament Foreign Minister Walid Mouallem stated ldquoTese strategic ties [betweenSyria and urkey] are to be a nucleus that will soon be

augmented by Lebanon Jordan and Iraqrdquo In that sce-nario Syria could act as an access point for EU coun-tries seeking to enter markets in the Arab world and Western Asia Asad discussed this vision with Rus-sian president Dmitry Medvedev in May 2010 and inAugust 2009 he received Iranian Supreme Leader AliKhameneirsquos blessing for the strategy




14 Policy Focus 109

country as a springboard to the region via China Cityan area in the Adra Free Zone industrial park northeastof Damascus Located on the Damascus-Baghdad highway China City was ldquoestablished by entrepreneurs from

the wealthy Chinese coastal province of Zhejiang to sellChinese goods and as a major trans-shipment hub ontoIraq Lebanon and the wider regionrdquo7 It is especially popular among visiting ocials from Iraq

hird Syria is a key node in Chinarsquos ldquoIron SilkRoadrdquo discussed below

Pipeline Linkso implement his Four Seas strategy Asad is also taking steps to expand the Arab Gas Pipeline (AGP) in order tomove gas from Egypt and Iraq via Syria connecting with

Nabucco pipelines reaching into urkey and Europe(see g 1) Te AGP currently links Egypt with JordanSyria and Lebanon and a new sixty-two-kilometer linkbetween Syria and urkey was agreed to in 2009 and isscheduled for completion in 2011 Tis would providenorthern Syria with much-demanded gas supplies Andas gas becomes available from other sources (primar-ily Iraq) the new lines will ultimately serve as a supplyroute to urkey and the EU

Syriarsquos long-term aim is to become a transit statefor Egypt Iraq Iran and Azerbaijan In 2009 Asad

visited Azerbaijanmdashthe rst Syrian president to do sosince the Azeris gained independence in 1991mdashandsigned nineteen cooperation agreements and memo-randa of understanding on economic political andcommercial matters Tis included a deal for Azerbai- jan to begin exporting 15 billion cubic meters of gasannually to Syria via urkey in mid-2011 Damascusis also eyeing a role in the Nabucco gas pipeline project while Russian rm Gazprom considers joining eortsto connect the AGP with Nabucco Moreover byconnecting with Iranmdashan observer in the Shanghai

Cooperation Organization (SCO)mdashthe AGP can alsolink with the urkmenistan-China pipeline and futureKazakhstan-China oil pipelines

An Iron Silk RoadSyria also wants to build railways from its Mediter-ranean port city of artous to Umm Qasr port in

Partyrsquos legitimacy at home In response Beijing hasincreased economic and diplomatic ties with countriesin the region that have problematic relations with theUnited States and the Westmdashsuch as Syria urkey

and Iranmdashin addition to expanding its overall footprint in the region

his approach is also rooted in broader historicaland conceptual factors Damascus was a traditional western terminus of the ancient Silk Road and todaythe Chinese call Syria ldquoning jiu lirdquo (cohesive force)Indeed Damascus is playing a cohesive role as ChinarsquosSilk Road strategy converges with Syriarsquos ldquolook eastrdquoapproach Damascus is part and parcel of Beijingrsquosbroader Middle East strategy which one Chineseanalyst argued is going through a new activism that

signals the end of ldquothe age of Chinese passivity in theMiddle Eastrdquo Stated in other terms Chinese foreign policy has been transforming from ldquoresponsive diplo-macyrdquo ( fanying shi waijiao) to ldquoproactive diplomacyrdquo( zhudong shi waijiao)

Beijingrsquos interest in Damascus stems from more prac-tical factors as well First Syria can serve as Chinarsquos gateway to European markets in the face of increasing pro-tectionist pressures from larger countries such as FranceGermany and Britain As such China has launched astrategy of investing in small countries and territories in

the area including Balkan states poised to join the EUand certain Levant states Tese countries are part of theMediterranean Union which was initiated by the 1995Barcelona Process to create a free trade zone betweenthe EU North Africa and the Middle East along theMediterranean coast hus investing in Syria wouldeventually provide China with a beachhead into the EUmarket via the Mediterranean Union

Second Syriarsquos proximity to a large trading blocencompassing both the EU and some of the fastest-growing economies in the world (in Africa the Middle

East and Asia) could enhance its role as a trading hubdue to the ldquoneighborhood eectrdquo whereby factories are placed in locations closer to both suppliers and consum-ers of products hus the ancient Syrian node on theSilk Road can be reborn as a regional outsourcing distri-bution center poised to take advantage of this neighbor-hood eect Accordingly Beijing is already using the




The Four Seas Strategy Christina Lin

strategic railway cooperation with China stating ldquoItis high time to turn the Silk Road into [a] Silk Rail- wayrdquo And on September 12 2010 Iran and Chinasigned a $2 billion deal to build a rail line from ehran

to Khosravi on the border with Iraq eventually link-ing with Syria and Lebanon as part of a Middle Easterncorridor Tis line will help Central Asian states accessthe Iranian port of Chahbahar and give China a vitaloverland route for transporting goods to Europe

Previously in 2008 urkey laid giant tubes of steelin the waters o Istanbul as part of the ambitious Mar-maray Project to link the European side of the city with the Asian side via an Iron Silk Road ldquoYou willbe able to go from Europe to Asia without getting o the trainrdquo stated Serap imur spokesman for urkeyrsquos

General Directorate of Railways Harbors and Air- ports Construction which runs the project urkeyaims to build a two-way rail under the Sea of Marmaraat the mouth of the Bosporus one of the worldrsquos busiest waterways Tis route will oer a faster alternative toferry boats and the two road bridges that already crossthe strait cutting travel time from three hours to onehour and forty-ve minutes Te rail ldquowill be able tocarry 5000 passengers an hour between Europe andAsia when the link reaches its full capacity in 2015rdquoIn addition urkey is working on a rail link with

Georgia and Azerbaijan that ldquowill provide an uninter-rupted train connection from China to urkeyrdquo oncecompleted ldquoTis project will go through Kazakhstanto China and through Marmaray to Londonrdquo Abdul-lah Gul urkeyrsquos president said at the groundbreaking ceremony in the Georgian capital of bilisi in Novem-ber 200 He added that the project would ldquochangehistoryrdquo and revive ldquothe historic Silk Roadrdquo Andindeed the project would provide a commerciallyimportant land connection between China and theMiddle East as did the ancient Silk Road

Military dimension o rail development Rail- ways play a key military transport and logistics rolein Chinarsquos eorts to project power across EurasiaAlong those lines one Kazakh scholar pointed outthe hidden dangers that could result from a short-sighted approach to relations with China warning

southern Iraq which could allow it to establish traderoutes between Iraq and Europe Similarly therehave been ldquodiscussions about building a natural gas pipeline from Iraqrsquos Western Akkas fields to Syria

which could be an attractive transit point for gas-starved Arab and European marketsrdquo his bodes well for Chinarsquos energy holdings in Iraq where Beijing is establishing a large presence

More broadly China is interested in building aEurasian railway network connecting Central Asiathrough the Middle East and onto Europe Under theauspices of the Shanghai Cooperation OrganizationBeijing is already negotiating to change KyrgyzstanrsquosSoviet 1520-millimeter tracks to the internationalstandard of 1435 millimeters in order to connect

with urkish and Iranian rail systems (see fig 3)According to Wang Mengshu a senior consultant onthe Chinese governmentrsquos domestic high-speed rail project the network would eventually carry passen-gers from London to Beijing and then to SingaporeIndia or Pakistan Specifically there will be threemain routes one connecting to Southeast Asia as farsouth as Singapore a second from Urumqi in Xinjiang province through Central Asia and onto Germany anda third from Heilongjiang province in northern Chinato Eastern and Southeastern Europe via Russia As

mentioned in the previous chapter China is alreadynegotiating with seventeen countries over these linesIt is also in the middle of a domestic expansion projectto build nearly 19000 miles of new railways over thenext ve years aimed at connecting major cities withhigh-speed lines7

Meanwhile in December 2009 Damascus hosteddiscussions regarding rail cooperation with ItalianState Railway (Italferr) toward the goal of upgrading the Damascus-Aleppo line as part of a network con-necting urkey with Europe and Jordan with Saudi

Arabia and the Persian Gulf In addition urkey andIran are linking their railways to China via the UN-sponsored rans-Asian Railway initiated in the 1960sto provide 850 miles (14000 kilometers) of rail linksbetween Singapore and Istanbul with possible con-nections to Europe and Africa In July 2010 urkishminister of transportation Binali Yildirim proposed



Fig 3 Trans-Asian Railway





proliferation and rapid PLA deployment to protectChinarsquos growing interests

In short the ldquolook westrdquo Silk Road developmentstrategy that China is pursuing via the SCO is poised

to meet the Levantrsquos ldquolook eastrdquo policy on a numberof levels Concurrently a new energy-based Eurasiansecurity architecture appears to be emerging with ur-key Syria and Iran employing a Four Seas strategy toconnect with the SCO in the Caspian region

China Enters lsquoNATOrsquos LakersquoTe previous sections outlined the numerous avenuesby which Chinarsquos energy diplomacy has brought theMiddle Kingdom to the Greater Middle East energysecurity map Tese eorts have been coupled with mil-

itarization of Beijingrsquos energy security policy via navalbuildup and deployment of troops to protect and carryout energy and infrastructure projects across the regionFrom a military perspective adding a new ldquopearlrdquo in theMediterranean in the form of Greecersquos Piraeus seaportenables China to control sea access to Istanbul and theBlack Sea ports of Bulgaria Romania Ukraine south-ern Russia and Georgia Beijing is already investing in various infrastructure deals in Balkan seaports airports railways and highways as part of its strategy tocontrol or influence strategic maritime chokepoints

whether via defense cooperation ldquoarms for oilrdquo agree-ments or no-strings aid packages and so loans It isalso building a blue-water navy complete with aircracarriers to support its string-of-pearls approach Inother words as China makes inroads into the Caspianregion the Persian Gulf and elsewhere its enabling vehiclemdashthe SCOmdashis meeting NAO at the BlackSea the traditional Cold War demarcation between thealliance and the Warsaw Pact

Te Black Sea is a strategic entry point to the EUthe Balkans the Caucasus Central Asia and the Mid-

dle East After Bulgaria and Romania joined NAOand the EU the region became a Euro-Atlantic con-cern Given the Western military buildup in the area(via NAO missile defense efforts in Romania Bul-garia and possibly urkey) the increasing Russiannaval presence (via the new Black Sea Defense Pact with urkey and Ukraine)7 and Chinarsquos increasing

that Beijing was facilitating the rapid developmentof transport corridors in Central Asia and could potentially use those routes to deploy its troops in theregion in the event of a serious conict that threat-

ened Chinese security or strategic interests Oth-ers have expressed similar concerns regarding Chinarsquosinfrastructure projects with urkey Syria Iran andIraq (which tend to be underreported by the majormedia) especially in light of increased Sino-urkishmilitary cooperation For example on November15 2010 Iranian foreign minister Manoucher Motakiannounced that ehran Afghanistan and ajikistanhad agreed to cooperate with China on building a railfrom Xinjiang province through ajikistan Kyrgyz-stan Afghanistan and Iran with eventual plans to

continue westward into Iraq Syria and urkey Within China proper the PLA has already report-

edly used the Shanghai-Nanjing express railway totransport troops at speeds up to 350 kilometers perhour touting the practice as an ideal way to project personnel and light equipment in ldquomilitary opera-tions other than warrdquo7 Another report indicatedthat the military is actively participating in the designand planning of Chinarsquos high-speed railway withmilitary requirements becoming part of the develop-ment process Indeed the ransport Department

of the PLArsquos General Logistics Department whichoversees rail issues is looking to implement rapidmobilization and deployment of troops via high-speed rails once they are completed across EurasiaOn August 3 2010 PLA Daily reported that a trainloaded with PLAAF combat-readiness materiel hadused the Qinghai-ibet Railway for the rst timeHeavy weapons systems such as tanks and infantryghting vehicles were carried by standard rail whilelightly armored troops deployed to Jinan MilitaryCommand were able to use China Railway high-

speed trains Tese deployments were conducted in part to test the PLArsquos long-distance mobility Mean- while the ongoing program of building 13000 kilo-meters of high-speed rail is scheduled for completionby 2012

he implications of such growth encompass notonly trans-Asian trade integration but also illicit arms




18 Policy Focus 109

with China Although the alliance has the NAO-Russia Council as a mechanism to engage Moscowno such equivalent exists for Beijing Te concluding chapter offers recommendations for addressing this

and other potentially troublesome gaps as the Westseeks the best means of responding to Chinarsquos ramped-up regional eorts

military presence (via infrastructure projects andstring-of-pearls tactics) the Black Sea region is becom-ing the main demarcation line between NAO and theemerging Sino-Russian-led SCO

Indeed the 2010 Anatolian Eagle military exercisediscussed in chapter 2 prompted NAO secretary-gen-eral Anders Fogh Rasmussen to call for engagement




4 | Policy Recommendations

challenging With Washingtonrsquos leadership under the

NAO banner however EU countries may have moreincentive to adopt a common energy strategy

oward that end the EU and NAO should coop-erate on

1 Helping Israel and Greece build an undersea

pipeline to eed into the EUrsquos southern corridor

Energy diversication is in the EUrsquos strategic inter-est and according to US Geological Survey andindustry reports Israelrsquos most recent oshore natu-ral gas discoveries show good prospects of achiev-

ing near-term production that could feed Greekand ultimately European energy needs Israeli andCypriot eorts to agree on a ldquomedian linerdquo betweentheir overlapping exclusive economic zones haveestablished the marketability of Israeli gas to EuropeTis step is all the more important because Iraqi gasexports do not seem viable before 2020 and Azerigas exports are being broken up into smaller bundlesand streamed in various directionsmdashRussia theMiddle East the Balkans and possibly Chinamdashmak-ing them insucient to meet EU demand


China NAO already has a mechanism in place toengage Moscowmdashthe NAO Russia Councilmdashbutthere is no equivalent mechanism for Beijing Chinahas now entered the EUNAO energy securitymap however and is competing for resources in Iraqthe Caspian (eg against the EU-backed Nabucco pipeline) and increasingly the Black Sea (via astrategic partnership with NAO member urkey)Terefore the alliance must look beyond Russia andengage China as well especially since both countries

are leading partners in the SCOChina has also expressed interest in buying gas

from an Israeli consortium drilling in the amar areao the coast of Haifa and Chinese ocials recently participated in a three-day renewable energy confer-ence at Hebrew University of Jerusalem BecauseBeijing and the EU are both interested in the

C L E A R L Y C H I N A H A S G R O W I N G interests in

the Greater Middle East and is stepping up its militaryties to protect those interests Besides ying warplanesover urkish Iranian and Pakistani airspace during theAnatolian Eagle exercise it also deployed special oper-ations ground forces to urkey on November 8 2010for a week-long joint military exercise Chinese navaldestroyers and frigates will no doubt make future vis-its to ports in the Mediterranean and Black Seas giventhe August 2010 naval visit to Piraeus Greece not tomention Beijingrsquos investment in Bulgariarsquos Black Sea ports Such increased military cooperation withurkey Iran and Russia may even deter US and Israelimilitary options regarding Iranrsquos nuclear sites In shortthe Middle Kingdom has arrived in the Middle Eastand appears determined to stay awhile

Accordingly the United States and its allies shouldtake several steps to secure their energy interests in theregion as well as their broader security interests



Since the emerging Eurasian energy security architec-

ture appears to contradict NAO interests and com- pete with EUUS-backed pipelines the alliance has prudently incorporated the issue into its new strate-gic doctrine to reect changing geopolitical realitiesIn August 2010 NAO created the Emerging Secu-rity Challenges Division to focus on energy security weapons of mass destruction proliferation terrorismand cyber defense During its 2009 Business Coun-cil Roundtable in Moscow however the China-ledShanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) discussed plans to form an SCO Energy Club that would in

turn create a self-sucient energy system eectivelyreducing each individual EU countryrsquos bargaining posi-tion on energy issues As such the EU should workto establish common energy security policy underNAOrsquos banner since many EU countries are alsoNAO members Without US strategic leadership past efforts to formulate such a policy have proven

4




20 Policy Focus 109

to be known as the ldquoGarden of Central Asiardquo export-ing high-end crops such as raisins pomegranates pis-tachios and almonds oday agriculture supports85 percent of the population and the country remains

a potential geostrategic trading hub connecting theIndian subcontinent with Central Asia the MiddleEast and Chinamdashhome to some of the fastest-grow-ing economies in the world As such it is a ldquonaturallocus for an emerging regional network of trade routesand pipelinesrdquo

Of course Beijing fundamentally distrusts NAO viewing it as a hegemonic tool for the United States tointervene in other countriesrsquo domestic aairs Tis atti-tude could extend to API if engagement is handledimproperly China is unlikely to cooperate directly

with the US military and the International SecurityAssistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan if the projectis presented under the NAO banner Yet Beijing maybecome more receptive if the United States changes thenarrative from a NAO-led model to a more multilat-eral framework bringing in other actors such as the EUand India Such eorts could be based on the SharedAwareness and Deconfliction (SHADE) approachcurrently being employed in the Gulf of Aden whereChina initially refused to cooperate with the US-ledCombined Maritime Forces on antipiracy eorts Bei-

jing became more willing to participate once the issue was addressed within the multilateral SHADE forum which brought in the EU India Russia Interpol and various oil companies alongside the United States andNAO By changing the API narrative in a similarmanner Washington can exert strategic leadership anddissuade China from supporting Iran or any proposedIPC pipeline

As described throughout this study Chinarsquos leadershave increasingly prioritized energy development inthe Greater Middle East as a matter of national secu-

rity altering the countryrsquos political relationships eco-nomic initiatives and military posture accordinglyBy implementing the measures recommended above Washington and its allies can show Beijing that theyare equally serious about securing their own interestsin the region

marketability of Israeli natural gas there is additionalroom for cooperation between NAO the UnitedStates and China in discussions regarding energysecurity issues

Encourage Beijing to pressure Iran and push or-

ward on the TAPI pipeline

Te United States and the EU should continue to usethe P5+1 forum (ie the ve permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany) to enlist Chi-nese help in curbing Iranrsquos nuclear program Yet Beijing is interested in replacing India in the proposed Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipelinemdasha development that would bolster Iranrsquos energy sector and neutralize UNsanctions against its nuclear program Accordingly the

United States should nd ways to dissuade China fromturning the IPI proposal into an IPC project convinc-ing it to support the urkmenistan-Afghanistan-Paki-stan-India (API) pipeline instead Te API projecthas a good chance of succeeding if the West can secureChinese cooperation within a multilateral forum andbring in industry representatives

Washington Beijing and other actors already share amutual interest in stabilizing Afghanistan On the secu-rity front China supports the US goal of eliminating a safe haven for the aliban and al-Qaeda who train

Muslim Uyghurs to attack Chinese targets in XinjiangBeijing has therefore expressed willingness to invest inAfghan infrastructure According to one Indian dip-lomat the goal of API is not just to bring Caspianenergy reserves to the world market but also to stabilizeAfghanistanmdashand by extension maintain US politi-cal military and economic influence in the strategichigh plateau that overlooks Russia Iran and ChinaMoreover India and its growing energy demand wouldlikely provide a willing steady market for urkmenianand Afghan energy sources particularly if New Delhi

hopes to avoid relinquishing its supply route to China via the competing IPI (more likely IPC) pipelineOn the economic front all of the main playersmdash

including the Afghans themselvesmdashhave vested inter-ests in stabilizing the country and helping it return toits status as a Eurasian trading hub Afghanistan used

4




Notes

1 Zha Daojiung Chinarsquos Oil Security International Political and Economic Analysis (Beijing Contemporary World Press 2005) p 104

2 See for example Guo Xuetang ldquoTe Energ y Security in Central Eurasia Te Geopolitical Implications to Chinarsquos Energy StrategyrdquoChina and Eurasia Forum Quarterly 4 no 4 (2006) p 12 M K Bhadrakumar ldquoCatalysts of Conict in Central Asiardquo Asia Times June 2 2005 httpwwwatimescomatimesCentral_AsiaGF02Ag01html

3 Ni Jianmin ed Guojia Nengyuan Anquan Baogao [National energy security report] (Beijing Renmin Chubanshe [Peoplersquos Publishing House] 2005) p 115

4 Heinrich Kre ldquoChinarsquos uest for Energyrdquo Policy Review (OctoberndashNovember 2006) p 62 httpwwwhooverorgpublications policy-reviewarticle941

5 Suisheng Zhao ldquoChinarsquos Global Search for Energy Security Cooperation and Competition in Asia Pacicrdquo Journal of ContemporaryChina 1 no 55 (2008) p 208 httpwwwinformaworldcomsmppcontent~db=all~content=a91903335

6 Alexandros Petersen ldquoEnergy Geopolitics Deserves Center Stagerdquo Washington Times February 23 2010 httpwwwwashingtontimescomnews2010feb23energy-geopolitics-deserves-center-stage

Alexandros Petersen ldquoDid China Just Win the Caspian Gas Warrdquo Foreign Policy July 2010 httpwwwforeignpolicycomarticles201000did_china_just_win_the_caspian_gas_war

8 Petersen ldquoEnergy Geopolitics Deserves Center Stagerdquo9 M K Bhadrakumar ldquoPipeline Project a New Silk Roadrdquo Asia Times December 16 2010 httpwwwatimescomatimesSouth_Asia

LL16Df01html10 Bruce Pannier ldquoAPI Pipeline Signed SealedmdashNot Yet Deliveredrdquo Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty December 15 2010 http

wwwrferlorgcontentfeature2248838html 11 Zachary Fillingham ldquoIndia China amp the IPI Pipelinerdquo Geopolitical Monitor November 5 2009 httpwwwgeopoliticalmonitorcomindia-china-the-ipi-pipeline-294 Stephen Blank ldquoChina Hangs Fire on Iran-Pakistan Pipelinerdquo Asia imes March 9 2010 http

wwwatimescomatimesChina_BusinessLC09Cb01html Zeeshan Haider ldquoPakistan Iran Sign Deal on Natural Gas PipelinerdquoReuters March 1 2010 Syed Fazl-e-Haider ldquoPakistan Iran Sign Gas Pipeline Dealrdquo Asia Times May 2 2009 httpwwwreuterscomarticle2010031us-pakistan-iran-idUSRE62G12C2010031 ldquoChina May Replace India in IPI Gas Pipeline Reportrdquo DNA

India February 2010 httpwwwdeccanheraldcomcontent51384china-may-replace-india-proposedhtml Of course the seri-ous challenge posed by security problems in Afghanistan could prove to be more of a concern for API than rival Chinese projectsAlthough the Afghan government says it will bury API lines up to two meters underground to ensure security the proposed routeruns through the aliban heartland in southern Helmand and Kandahar provinces See Bhadrakumar ldquoPipeline Project a New SilkRoadrdquo Sayed Salahuddin ldquoAfghan Insurgent Faction Says Backs Gas Pipelinerdquo Reuters December 29 2010 httpwwwreuterscomarticle20101219us-afghanistan-gas-idUSRE6BI0RW20101219

12 Stanley Reed and Dexter Roberts ldquoRed Star over Iraqrdquo Bloomberg Businessweek January 21 2010 httpwwwbusinessweekcommaga-zinecontent10_05b416504438665htm Spencer Swartz and Benoit Faucon ldquoIraq Replaces Iran as Middle Eastrsquos Second-BiggestOil Producerrdquo Asian Energy June 26 2010 ldquoChina Now Largest Oil and Gas Investor in Iraqrdquo AMEinfo March 2 2010 httpwwwameinfocom226964html

13 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010 June 2010 httpwwwbpcomproductlandingdocategoryId=6929ampconten

tId=04462214 Te full text of the report is available at httpwwweiadoegovoiafieoendusehtml15 Christina Lin ldquoMilitarisation of Chinarsquos Energy Security Policyrdquo Denkwurdigkeiten Journal der Politisch-Militarischen Gesellscha no

45 (July 2008)16 Russell Hsiao ldquoChina Expands Naval Presence through Jeddah Port Callrdquo China Brief 10 no 25 (December 1 2010) ldquoChinarsquos

Sixth Russell Hsiao ldquoChina Expands Naval Presence through Jeddah Port Callrdquo China Brief 10 no 25 (December 1 2010) http wwwjamestownorgprogramschinabriefsingletx_ttnews5Btt_news5D=3292amptx_ttnews5BbackPid5D=25ampcHash=0a403bdf6 ldquoChinarsquos Sixth Naval Escort Flotilla Arrived in Jeddardquo Xinhua November 29 2010 httpengmodgovcnDefense-News2010-1129content_4210854htm ldquoHu Jintao Urges Army to Perform lsquoHistorical Missionrsquordquo Peoplersquos Daily March 14 2005ldquoPerform Vital Mission Hu ells Militar yrdquo China Daily March 14 2005 httpwwwchinadailycomcnenglishdoc2005-0314content_424515htm Jerey Engstrom ldquoPLArsquos Growing Force Projection Capabilitiesrdquo China Brief 10 no 25 (December 1 2010)httpwwwjamestownorgprogramschinabriefsingletx_ttnews5Btt_news5D=3295amptx_ttnews5BbackPid5D=25ampcHash=23a98efe4e

1 Fadil Aliriza ldquoChina Puts Mark on Eurasia Energy Picturerdquo Hurriyet Daily News and Economic Review September 6 2010 httpwwwhurriyetdailynewscomnphpn=china-puts-its-mark-on-eurasia-energy-picture-2010-09-06

18 Willy Lam ldquoBeijing rsquos Energ y Obsessionrdquo Dow Jones April 2 200419 Suisheng Zhao ldquoChinarsquos Global Searchrdquo

20 Beijing established a Ministry of Energy in 1988 and reorganized it into the three giant state-owned oil and gas corporations two yearslater CNPC holds two-thirds of the countryrsquos crude production capacity and is responsible for northern and western China SINO-PEC which is responsible for southern China controls more than half of the countryrsquos rening capacity and is the primary importing company for crude oil CNOOC focuses solely on oshore exploration See Suisheng Zhao ldquoChinarsquos Global Searchrdquo p 209

21 Keith Bradsher ldquoSecurit y ops the Environment in Chinarsquos Energ y Planrdquo New York Times June 1 2010 httpwwwnytimescom20100618businessglobal18yuanhtml Bo Zhiyue ldquoChinarsquos New National Energy Commission Policy Implicationsrdquo EIABackground Brief no 504 (February 5 2010) httpwwweainusedusgBB504pdf Peter Yuan Cai ldquoChinarsquos New National EnergyCommissionrdquo East Asia Forum March 12 2010 httpwwweastasiaforumorg20100312chinas-new-national-energy-commission

22 John Kafer Douglas et al ldquoFueling the Dragonrsquos Flame How Chinarsquos Energy Demand Aects Its Relationship in the Middle Eastrdquo US-China Economic and Security Review Commission September 14 2006 p 12 httpwwwusccgovresearchpapers2006China_ME_FINALpdf




22 Policy Focus 109

23 ldquoOrigin of the lsquoEast urkistanrsquo Issuerdquo Global Times July 14 2009 httpwwwglobaltimescnwwwenglishtruexinjiangurumqi-riotanti-terror2009-044542html ldquoChinastan A Crackdown in Chinarsquos Wild West Its Muslim-Majority Chunk of CentralAsiardquo Economist September 4 2008 httpwwweconomistcomnode12060405 ldquoFeature Te errorist Nature of lsquoEast urkes-tanrsquo Separatistsrdquo press release Chinese embassy in Syria August 26 2009 httpwwwglobaltimescnwwwenglishchinachi-nanews2009-0450525html

24 Christina Lin ldquoTe Caspian Sea Chinarsquos Silk Road Strateg y Converges with Damascusrdquo China Brief 10 no 1 (August 19 2010) http

wwwjamestownorgprogramschinabriefsingletx_ttnews5Btt_news5D=361amptx_ttnews5BbackPid5D=414ampno_cache=1 ldquoChina Puts Mark on Eurasia Energy Picturerdquo Hurriyet Daily News September 8 2010 httpwwwhurriyetdailynewscomn phpn=china-puts-its-mark-on-eurasia-energy-picture-2010-09-06 Guo Xuetang ldquoTe Energy Security in Central Eurasiardquo pp 129Trassy N Marketos Chinarsquos Energy Geopolitics e Shanghai Cooperation Organization and Central Asia (London Routledge 2009)

p 1125 Guo Xuetang ldquoTe Energy Security in Central Eurasiardquo pp 13526 Niklas Swanstrom ldquoChina and Central Asia A New Great Game or raditional Vassal Relationsrdquo Journal of Contemporary China 14

no 45 (November 2005) p 582 httpwwwinformaworldcomsmppcontent~db=all~content=a2323504 2 Marketos Chinarsquos Energ y Geopolitics p 528 Author conversation with Dr Manning Washington DC August 20 201029 Hong u ldquoChinarsquos New National Energy Commission How the Wen Jiabao-led NEC Will Shape Chinarsquos Energ y Policyrdquo Burson-

Marseteller (Beijing) March 2010 httpwwwamchamchinaorgarticle56330 Christina Lin ldquoTe Prince of Rosh Russian Energy Imperialism and the Emerging Eurasian Military Alliance of the Shanghai Coopera-

tion Organisationrdquo Denkwurdigkeiten Journal der Politisch-Militarischen Gesellscha no 51 (February 2009) httpwwwvoltairenetorgIMGpdfRussian_Energy_Imperialismpdf Zeyno Baran ldquoSecurity Aspects of the South Stream Projectrdquo Occasional Paper (Hud-son Institute October 2008) httpwwwhudsonorgindexcfmfuseaction=publication_detailsampid=5835amppubype=hi_reports Robert L Larsson ldquoSecurity Implications of the Nord Stream Projectrdquo FOI Memo 2336 (FOI Swedish Defence Research Agency Feb-

ruary 12 2008) httpwwwfoiseuploadnyheter2008security_implications_of_nord_stream_robert_larssonpdf 31 Ariel Farrar-Wellman and Robert Frasco ldquoChina-Iran Foreign Relationsrdquo AEI Iran racker July 13 2010 httpwwwirantrackerorgforeign-relationschina-iran-foreign-relations

32 Petersen ldquoDid China Just Win the Caspian Gas Warrdquo33 Christina Lin ldquoChinarsquos Persian Gulf Strategy Israel and a Nuclearizing Iran 2009rdquoChina Brief 9 no 21 (October 22 2009) httpwww

jamestownorgprogramschinabriefsingletx_ttnews5Btt_news5D=35633amptx_ttnews5BbackPid5D=459ampno_cache=134 See her remarks during the ldquoChina and the Persian Gulf rdquo forum Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Washington

DC July 12 201035 Ibid36 Erica Downs ldquoBeij ingrsquos ehran emptationrdquo Foreign Policy July 30 2009 httpwwwforeignpolicycomarticles2009030

chinas_tehran_temptation 3 Chris Stanton ldquoIranrsquos op Oil Customer Buys Less rdquo The National July 28 2010 httpwwwthenationalaebusinessenergy

irans-top-oil-customer-buys-less38 Wu Bingbing remarks during the ldquoChina and the Persian Gulf rdquo forum Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Washing -

ton DC July 12 201039 ldquoLooking East Te Saudis Are Hedging Teir Betsrdquo e Economist December 9 2010 httpwwweconomistcomnode168066840 Ibid

41 Ibid See also ldquoChina-Built Light Rail Whisks 1 Million Hajj Pilgrims to Mecca in Saudi Arabiardquo China Daily November 20 2010httpwwwchinadailycomcnxinhua2010-11-20content_124393html ldquoChina Railway Construction Plunges Most in wo Yearson Mecca-Project Lossrdquo Bloomberg News October 26 2010 httpwwwbloombergcomnews2010-10-26china-railway-construc-tion-tumbles-aer-forecasting-loss-on-mecca-projecthtmlGeorey Kemp e East Moes West (Washington DC Brookings Institu-tion 2010) pp 162 httpwwwbrookingsedupressBooks2010theeastmoveswestaspx

42 Chris Zambelis ldquoShiing Sands in the Gulf Te Iran Calculus in China-Saudi Arabia Relationsrdquo China Brief 10 no 10 (May 14 2010)httpwwwjamestownorgsingleno_cache=1amptx_ttnews5Btt_news5D=3631amptx_ttnews5BbackPid5D=ampcHash=305f 844510

43 Simon Henderson ldquoChina-Saudi Cooperation Oil but Also Missilesrdquo PolicyWatch no 1095 (Washington Institute for Near East Pol-icy April 21 2006) httpwwwwashingtoninstituteorgtemplateC05phpCID=2460

44 Hsiao ldquoChina Expands Naval Presencerdquo45 Ibid46 Ryan Carter ldquoUAE and China Forge Links to Be reasuredrdquo e National May 31 2010 ldquoPLA Naval Warships on Maiden Visit to

Dubairdquo China Daily March 25 2010 ldquoChinese Navy Ships Complete Visit to UAErdquo March 29 2010 ocial Chinese government website httpwwwgovcnenglish2010-0329content_156229htm

4 Zambell is ldquoShiing Sands in the Gulfrdquo48 Chen Zhu ldquoCNOOC Seals Deal on Iraq Oil Fieldrdquo Caixin Online May 18 2010 httpenglishcaingcom2010-05-18100144922

html Ikuko Kurahone ldquoChina Overtakes US as Biggest Energy Consumer IEArdquo Reuters October 12 2010 httpwwwreuterscomarticle20101012us-china-iea-idUSRE69B1D12010101249 Pepe Escobar ldquoBetting and Blung in the New Great Gamerdquo Asia Times October 14 2010 httpwwwatimescomatimesCentral_

AsiaLJ14Ag01html50 ldquoRaid by Local Iraqi Authorities on CNPCrsquos al-Ahdab Oileld Challenges Governmentrdquo IHS Global Insight September 30 2010

httpwwwihscomproductsglobal-insightindustry-economic-reportaspxID=10659368amppu=1amprd=globalinsight_com According to Ahmed Abdul Ridha chief engineer at al-Ahdab the Iraqis at the eld allowed the Wasit local ocials and police to enterdue to fears of armed conict between the Chinese guards and the Iraqis ldquoWhen we saw the situation was about to explode and thatarmed clashes may occur to maintain the lives of the Chinese we allowed them to enter with their armsrdquo

51 See Yasar Yakis (former urkish minister of foreign affa irs) ldquourkeyrsquos Geopol itical Position and Its Role as an Energy Corridorrdquo




Notes Christina Lin

unpublished manuscript presented at the ldquoNew International Role of urkeyrdquo seminar German Marshall Fund of the United StatesParis September 2 2010 pp 14ndash18

52 Ibid p 2053 ldquourkey China lsquourn a New Pagersquo in ies through lsquoStrategic Partnershiprsquordquo Todayrsquos Zaman October 9 2010 httpwwwtodayszaman

comnews-223908-102-turkey-china-turn-a-new-page-in-ties-through-strategic-partnershiphtml54 Guo Qiang ldquoChina urkey Pen 8 Pacts to Develop iesrdquo Global Times October 22 2010 Joe Parkinson ldquourkey and China to Shun

the Dollarrdquo Wall Street Journal October 9 2010 httponlinewsjcomarticleSB100014240524804653045553959203694542html David Schenker and Christina Lin ldquoChinarsquos Rise in the Middle Eastrdquo Los Angeles Times November 16 2010 httparticleslatimescom2010nov16opinionla-oe-schenker-china-mideast-20101116

55 Bill Gertz ldquoInside the Ring urkish-Chinese War Games Washington Times October 6 2010 ldquourkeyrsquos Unprecedented Air Exer-cise with China Shocks NAO Alliesrdquo Before Itrsquos News October 12 2010 httpbeforeitsnewscomstory21243urkeys_unprec-edented_air_exercise_with_China_shocks_NAO_allieshtml ldquoAnatolian Eagle Becomes Closer to Chinardquo Sri Lanka GuardianOctober 2010 httpwwwsrilankaguardianorg201010anatolian-eagle-becomes-closer-to-chinahtml

56 Burak Ege Bekdil and Umit Enginsoy ldquourkey China in Exercises NAO Blanches as Ankara Looks Eastrdquo Defense News October 12010 httpwwwdefensenewscomstoryphpi=4921329

5 Ibid58 ldquoChinese Warplanes Make Mid East Debut in urkey and Iranrdquo Pakistan Defence October 12 2010 httpwwwdefencepkforums

china-defence6292-chinese-warplanes-make-mid-east-debut-turkey-iranhtml59 Mehmet Ozkan ldquourkey-China Military Drill Reveals Deepening ies Widening Reachrdquo World Politics Review October 22 2010

httpwwwworldpoliticsreviewcomarticles6800turkey-china-military-drill-reveals-deepening-ties-widening-reach60 David Snowdon ldquoChinarsquos Economy Its Greatest Weapon or Weak Pointrdquo NATO Review edition (ldquoTe Coming Role of Asiardquo)

(2009) httpwwwnatointdocureview2009Asiarise_china_geopoliticalENindexhtm61 Harriet Alexander ldquoChinarsquos New Silk Road into Europerdquo Daily Telegraph July 4 2010 httpwwwtelegraphcouknewsworld-

newseuropegreece869999Chinas-new-Silk-Road-into-Europehtml ldquoChina-Greece Port Deal Signedrdquo Straits Times Novem-ber 25 2008 Stuart Burns ldquoChina Buys into Greece as Gateway to Europerdquo Agmetalminer July 8 2010 httpagmetalminercom2010008china-buys-into-greece-as-gateway-to-europe Eric Ellis ldquo Pearls for the Orientrdquo Business Day July 9 2010 http

wwwbusinessdaycomaubusinesspearls-for-the-orient-2010008-1028rhtml Pat Booth ldquoWill China lsquoRule the Worldrsquordquo Auckland Stu July 28 2010 httpwwwstuconzaucklandopinion3961524Will-China-rule-the-world Kerin Hope ldquoChina to BuildContainer erminal in Greek Port to Expand rade iesrdquo Gulf News December 1 2008 httpgulfnewscombusinessshippingchina-to-build-container-terminal-in-greek-port-in-greek-port-to-expand-trade-ties-114219

62 ldquoChina Signs Greek Port Deal Vows More Investmentrdquo Dalje November 25 2008 httpdaljecomen-worldchina-signs-greek-port-deal-vows-more-investment20611 ldquoChinarsquos COSCO akes Over Container Business at Greek Portrdquo China Daily October 1 2009httpwwwchinadailycomcnbusiness2009-1001content_86011htm

63 Helena Smith ldquoDebt-Ridden Greece Gets Vote of Condence from Chinardquo Guardian June 15 2010 httpwwwguardiancoukbusiness2010jun15greece-china-contracts-signed

64 Snowdon ldquoChinarsquos Economyrdquo Christina Lin ldquoChina Iran and North Korea A riangular Strategic Alliancerdquo Middle East Review of International Aairs 14 no 1 (March 2010) pp 52 httpwwwgloria-centerorgmeria201003linhtml Lin ldquoMilitarisation of Chinarsquos Energy Security Policyrdquo

65 Christopher J Pehrson String of Pearls Meeting the Challenge of Chinarsquos Rising Power Across the Asian Littoral (Carlisle PA StrategicStudies Institute US Army War College July 2006) Lin ldquoMilitarisation of Chinarsquos Energy Security Policyrdquo

66 ldquoUS Is Treatened by lsquoAggressive Chinese Sea Powerrsquordquo Aljazeera September 14 2005 Pehrson String of Pearls p 3 Jennifer ChouldquoChinarsquos lsquoStri ng of Pearlsrsquordquo Weekly Standard November 5 200 httpwwwweeklystandardcomweblogsWSFP20011chi-nas_string_of_pearlsasp Yukteshwar Kumar ldquoHu Pakistan and the lsquoString of Pearlsrsquordquo Redicom November 28 2006 httpwwwredicomnews2006nov28guesthtm Brahara Chellaney ldquoChina Covets a Pearl Necklace Dragonrsquos Foothold in Gwadarrdquo Asian

Age April 200 httpchellaneynet2000406china-covets-a-pearl-necklace Sudha Ramachandran ldquoChinarsquos Pearl in Pakistanrsquos Waterrdquo Asia Times March 1 2005 httpwwwatimescomatimesSouth_AsiaGC04Df06html ldquoPakrsquos New Port Has StrategicImplications for India Navy Chiefrdquo Times of India January 22 2008 Yitzhak Shichor ldquoSudan Chinarsquos Outpost in Africardquo China Brief 5 no 21 (October 13 2005) httpwwwjamestownorgsingleno_cache=1amptx_ttnews5Btt_news5D=3898 Daniel SayanildquoRed China Increases Investments and Inuence in Sudanrdquo New American January 31 2011 httpwwwthenewamericancomindex

phpworld-mainmenu-26africa-mainmenu-26119-red-china-increases-infrastructure-and-investments-in-sudan ldquoSino-SudanesePartnership Attains Many Gains in Red Sea Staterdquo Forum on China-Africa Cooperation January 28 2011 httpwwwfocacorgengzfgxt91165htm

6 ldquoChinese Naval Warships Visit Gre ecerdquo Xinhua August 9 2010 httpenglishsinacomchinap20100809332909html ldquoPearlsfor the Orientrdquo Sydney Morning Herald July 9 2010 Daniel Kostecka ldquo he Chinese Navyrsquos Emerging Support Network in theIndian Oceanrdquo China Brief 10 no 15 (July 22 2010) httpwwwjamestownorgprogramschinabriefsingletx_ttnews5Btt_news5D=36659amptx_ttnews5BbackPid5D=25ampcHash=010590e601 Syed Akbar Ali ldquoChina Encircles the Globerdquo Colombo Her-

ald October 18 2010 httpcolomboheraldcomwordpress201010china-encircles-the-globe

68 Anny zotzadini ldquoVasileios Klokozas Met with the Chinese Defense Ministerrdquo Greek Reporter August 24 2010 httpworldgreekre- portercom20100824vasileios-klokozas-met-with-the-chinese-defense-minister ldquoChinese Defense Minister Meets Greek Air ForceChiefrdquo Xinhua August 24 2010 httpnewsxinhuanetcomenglish2010china2010-0824c_13459980htm

69 Malcolm Moore ldquoChina May Build Middle East Naval Baserdquo Telegraph December 30 2009 httpwwwtelegraphcouknewsworld-newsasiachina6911198China-may-build-Middle-East-naval-basehtml ldquoChinarsquos Navy Mulls Push into Arabian Sea rdquo United PressInternational December 30 2009 httpwwwupicomScience_NewsResource-Wars20091230Chinas-navy-mulls-push-into-Arabian-SeaUPI-2431262213319 Kaveh Afrasiabi ldquoA China Base in Iranrdquo Asia Times Online January 29 2008 httpwwwatimescomatimesMiddle_EastJA29Ak03html ldquoChinese Soldiers Headed to Middle Eastrdquo World Net Daily January 12 2010 http

wwwwndcompageId=121360 Chris Zambelis ldquoBurgeoning China-Yemen ies Showcase Beijingrsquos Middle East Strategyrdquo China Brief 6 no 11 (May 24 2006) http




24 Policy Focus 109

wwwjamestownorgsingleno_cache=1amptx_ttnews5Btt_news5D=3952 Kostecka ldquo Te Chinese Navyrsquos Emerging Support Net- workrdquo M K Bhadrakumar ldquoObamarsquos Yemeni Odyssey argets Chinardquo Asia Times January 9 2010 httpwwwatimescomatimesMiddle_EastLA09Ak02html Ken Boyte ldquoChinese Big Oil Bring US Military to Yemen Nigeriardquo All Voices January 3 2010 http

wwwallvoicescomcontributed-news4929062-african-oil-strategic-objective-of-us-military-actions-in-yemen-nigeria1 Carter ldquoUAE and China Forgerdquo Ben Simpfendorfer ldquoChinarsquos Historic Return to the Gulfrdquo Foreign Policy April 2 2010 httpmid-

eastforeignpolicycomposts20100402china_s_historic_return_to_the_gulf ldquoInvestment the Missing Tread on lsquoSilk Roadrsquordquo

Peoplersquos Daily March 26 2010 httpenglishpeopledailycomcn9000190890858908636999html2 Information Oce of the State Council of the Peoplersquos Republic of China Chinarsquos National Defense White Paper 2008 (January 2009) p 44 httpwwwfasorgprogramssspnukes2008DefenseWhitePaper_Jan2009pdf

3 Ibid p 584 Susan Puska ldquoResources Security and Inuence Te Role of the Military in Chinarsquos Africa Strategyrdquo China Brief no 11 (May 30 200)

httpwwwjamestownorgprogramschinabriefsingletx_ttnews5Btt_news5D=4195amptx_ttnews5BbackPid5D=19ampno_cache=1 Susan Puska ldquoMilitary Backs Chinarsquos Africa Adventurerdquo Asia Times June 8 200 httpwwwatimescomatimesChinaIF08Ad02html ldquoWhat Are Chinese roops Doing on Zimbabwersquos Streetsrdquo Zimbabwe Today April 1 2008 httpwwwzimbabwe-todaycouk200804are-chinese-trohtml

5 ldquoPerform Vital Mission Hu ells Militaryrdquo China Daily March 14 2005 ldquoHu Jintao Urges Army to Perform lsquoHistorical Missionrsquordquo Peoplersquos Daily March 14 2005 Hu Jintao ldquoRenqing xinshiji xinjieduan wojun lishi shimingrdquo [See clearly our armed forcesrsquo historic mis-sions in the new period of the new century] December 24 2004 National Defense Education website of Jingxi province Sun KejiaLiu Feng Liu Yang and Lin Peixiong eds Zhongshi luxing xinshiji xinjieduan wojun lishi shiming [Faithfully carry out our militaryrsquoshistoric missions in the new period of the new century] (Beijing Haichao Publishing 2006) p 61 James Mulvenon ldquoChairman Huand the PLArsquos lsquoNew Historic Missionsrsquordquo China Leadership Monitor no 2 (Hoover Institution Winter 2009) httpwwwhooverorg

publicationschina-leadership-monitorarticle5544 Daniel M Hartnett ldquoTe PLArsquos Domestic and Foreign Activities and Orienta-tionrdquo testimony before the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission US Senate March 4 2009 httpwwwusccgov

hearings2009hearingswritten_testimonies09_03_04_wrts09_03_04_hartnett_statementpdf 6 Peter Mackenzie ldquoA Closer Look at China-Iran RelationsmdashRoundtable Reportrdquo Center for Naval Analyses China Studies September2010 pp 9 httpwwwcnaorgresearch2010closer-look-china-iran-relations Reed and Roberts ldquoRed Star over Iraqrdquo

Peng Kuang and Zhang Haizhou ldquoClearing the Way for Peacerdquo China Daily November 10 2010 httpwwwchinadailycomcnchina2009-1110content_893309htm

8 In addition to provoking New Delhirsquos ire with this act China has also denied visas to Indian Kashmiris and to an Indian generalresponsible for Kashmirmdashrdquoa hint that it might not respect Indian control of the territoryrdquo See ldquoPushing Backrdquo Economist Decem-ber 16 2010 Information on deployment obtained from author conversation with US CENCOM official October 4 2010Randeep Ramesh ldquoWhat Are Chinese roops Doing in Kashmirrdquo Guardian September 4 2010 httpwwwguardiancoukcommentisfree2010sep04troops-kashmir-alarm-india-pakistan Selig Harrison ldquoChinarsquos Discreet Hold on Pakistanrsquos Northern Bor-derlandsrdquo New York Times August 26 2010 httpwwwnytimescom2010082opinion2iht-edharrisonhtml ldquoChinese roopsin PoK India Conveys Concern to Chinardquo Times of India September 3 2010 httparticlestimesondiaindiatimescom2010-09-03india28220420_1_gilgit-baltistan-chinese-troops-chinese-presence

9 Chidanand Rajghatta ldquoUS Scholar Says Pak Ceded Control of Gilgit in PoK to Chinardquo Times of India September 9 2010 httparticlestimesondiaindiatimescom2010-09-09us28251198_1_gilgit-baltistan-road-and-rail-access-new-chinese-built ldquolsquoPak CededControl of Gilg it to Chinarsquo Scholarrdquo Pakistan Conict Monitor September 9 2010 httpconictmonitorsorgcountriespakistandaily-briengarchivesbrieng-detailskpakistan-conict-monitor20100909pak-ceded-control-of-gilgit-to-china-scholar Selig

Harrison ldquoChinarsquos Presence in Pakistanrdquo New York Times September 8 2010 httpwwwnytimescom20100909opinion09iht-edlettershtml Ramesh ldquo What Are Chinese roops Doingrdquo80 Chinese Ministr y of Commerce ldquo14th Session of China-Pakistan Joint Committee in Economy rade Science and echnolog y Held in

Islamabadrdquo press release December 3 2010 httpxxhs2mofcomgovcnaarticleworkaair201012201012028410html 81 ldquoXinjiang Production and Construction Corps Set Up Militia Emergency Battalionsrdquo PLA Daily November 15 2010 ldquoXinjiang Mili-

tary Regionrdquo Sino Defence December 1 2010 httpwwwsinodefencecomorganisationground-forcesxinjiang-military-regionasp Chinese State Council Information Oce ldquoEstablishment Development and Role of the Xinjiang Production and ConstructionCorpsrdquo China White Paper (May 26 2003) httpwwwchinaorgcne-white200305269htm

82 Chinese State Council Information Oce ldquoHistory and Development of Xinjiangrdquo China White Paper (May 26 2003) httpwwwchinaorgcne-white20030526indexhtm Sohum Desai ldquoA Study of Infrastructure in Xinjiangrdquo Security Research Review 12 (Octo-ber 22 2008) httpwwwbharat-rakshakcomSRRVolume12desaihtml

83 James Bosbotinis ldquoSustaining the Dragon Dodging the Eagle and Barring the Bear Assessing the Role and Importance of Central Asiain Chinese National Strategyrdquo China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly 8 no 1 (2010) pp 4 httpwwwchinaeurasiaorgimagessto-riesisdp-cefqCEFQ201004cefq81jb65-81pdf Dennis Blasko ldquoPLA Ground Forcerdquo in James C Mulvenon and Andrew N D Yangeds e Peoplersquos Liberation Army as Organization RAND Conference Proceedings CF 182 2000

84 ldquoXinjiang Military Regionrdquo Sino Defence December 1 2010 Nikita Petrov ldquoPeace Mission 200 to ackle error Treatsrdquo RIA Noosti July 24 200 httpenrianruanalysis20002469580465html Marcel de Haas ldquoTe lsquoPeace Mission 200rsquo Exercises Te Shang-

hai Cooperation Organisation Advancesrdquo Advanced Research and Assessment Group Central Asian Series 28 Defence Academy of the United Kingdom (July 200) httpwwwclingendaelnlpublications2002000900_cscp_paper_haaspdf 85 Malcolm Moore ldquoKingrsquos Cross to Beijing in wo Days on New High-Spee d Rail Networkrdquo Telegraph March 8 2010 httpwww

telegraphcouknewsworldnewsasiachina39846Kings-Cross-to-Beijing-in-two-days-on-new-high-speed-rail-networkhtml Kang Juan ldquoChinarsquos High-Speed Rail May Link 1 Nationsrdquo Peoplersquos Daily March 12 2010 httpenglishpeopledailycomcn90001906908826916612html David Bartlett and Alan Greenhalgh ldquoEurasia in the Global Economyrdquo Silk Road Intelligencer

July 14 2010 httpsilkroadintelligencercom2010014comment-eurasia-in-the-global-economy86 ldquoBeijing Gets De Facto Control over Gilgitrdquo Economic Times of India August 29 2010 httparticleseconomictimesindiatimes

com2010-08-29news2630033_1_road-and-rail-access-gilgit-baltistan-region-pasni-and-ormara Ajai Shukla ldquohe Shadow of Xinjiangrdquo Business Standard September 2010 httpwwwbusiness-standardcomindianewsajai-shuklashadowxinjiang40161



Notes Christina Lin


Harrison ldquoChinarsquos Discreet Holdrdquo Maj Gen G D Bakshi (Ret) ldquoBreathing Down Our Neckrdquo Hindustan Times September 16 2010httpwwwhindustantimescomBreathing-down-our-neckArticle1-601011aspx

8 ony Badran ldquoA Syria in Minor Keyrdquo Foundation for Defense of Democracies June 29 2010 httpwwwdefenddemocracyorgindex phpoption=com_contentamptask=viewampid=11905ampItemid=0 Yoav Stern ldquoSyriarsquos Four Seas Strategyrdquo Syria Comment October22 2009 httpwwwjoshualandiscomblogp=4252 ldquoSyria Aims to Become an Economic Hub among Four Seasrdquo Weekly Middle

East Reporter August 1 2009 httpwwwthefreelibrarycomSyria+aims+to+become+an+economic+hub+among+four+seas-

a02046440 ldquoAl-Moallem Syria and urkey Complete Each Otherrdquo Syrian Arab News Agency October 13 2009 httpwwwsanasyeng212009101324949htm author conversation with Andrew abler (Next Generation fellow Washington Institute for NearEast Policy) August 2010 Lin ldquoTe Caspian Seardquo author email correspondence with Yasar Yakis (chairman EU Committee urkish

parliament former foreign minister of urkey) August 23 201088 ldquoSyria Aims to Become an Economic Hub among Four Seasrdquo Weekly Middle East Reporter August 1 200989 Webster Brooks ldquoSyriarsquos Four Seas Policy and the New Middle East uartetrdquo Foreign Policy Review October 12 2010 httpbrooksre-

viewwordpresscom20101012syrias-four-seas-policy-and-the-new-middle-east-quartet See also Stern ldquoSyriarsquos Four Seas Strategyrdquo90 N Mozes ldquoSyria Regains Pivotal Regional International RolemdashTe riumph of the lsquoCourse of Resistancersquordquo MEMRI Report no 583

(January 29 2010) p 591 Badran ldquoA Syria in Minor Keyrdquo92 Mozes ldquoSyria Regainsrdquo p 6 Mouallemrsquos remarks were also reported by the Syrian Arab News Agency on December 29 200993 Sarah Birke ldquoIraq Election Syria Positions Itself as rade Gateway to Europe for New Governmentrdquo Christian Science Monitor March

26 2010 httpwwwcsmonitorcomWorldMiddle-East20100326Iraq-election-Syria-positions-itself-as-trade-gateway-to-Europe-for-new-government ldquoSyria Aims to Become an Economic Hub among Four Seasrdquo Weekly Middle East Reporter August 1 2009

94 Mozes ldquoSyria Regainsrdquo Khameneirsquos approval was also reported by the Islamic Republic News Agenc y on August 19 200995 Johan Lembke and Sever Voinescu ldquoTe Black Sea Reg ion in the wenty-First Century Energ y Security and the Euro-Atlantic Com-

munityrdquo Occasional Paper Network of European Union Centers of Excellence exas AampM University October 2006 httpeucenter

tamuedusitesdefaultlesOccasionalPapersTe_Black_Sea_Region_nal-9-19-06pdf 96 Ronald D Asmus and Bruce Jackson ldquoTe Black Sea and the Frontiers of Freedomrdquo in Ronald D Asmus et al eds A New Euro-Atlan-tic Strategy for the Black Sea Region (Washington DC German Marshall Fund of the United States 2004)

9 See ldquohe 4 Seasrdquo page on the EU 4 Seas website httpeu4seaseu See also reports from the international seminar on ldquoEnergyand ransport Co-operation in Europersquos Four Sea Basinsrdquo January 21ndash22 2010 Ankara urkey httpwwweu4seaseuindex

phpoption=com_contentamptask=viewampid=93ampItemid=2098 Lembke and Voinescu ldquoTe Black Sea Regionrdquo p 299 Dan Blumenthal ldquoProviding Arms China and the Middle Eastrdquo Middle East Quarterly (Spring 2005) pp 11ndash19 httpwwwmeforum

org695providing-arms100 Schenker and Lin ldquoChinarsquos Rise in the Middle Eastrdquo101 Ben Simpfendorfer ldquoChina and Syria Restart an Old Relationshiprdquo Syria Report May 11 2009 Simpfendorfer e New Silk Road

How a Rising Arab World Is Turning Away om the West and Rediscoering China (New York Palgrave Macmillan 2009) ChristinaLin ldquoSyria in Chinarsquos New Silk Road Strategyrdquo China Brief 10 no 8 (April 16 2010) httpwwwjamestownorgprogramschinabriefsingletx_ttnews5Btt_news5D=36264amptx_ttnews5BbackPid5D=25ampcHash=25395219

102 Chris Zambelis ldquoChina ests Its Mettle in Syriardquo Asia Times November 6 2008 httpwwwatimescomatimesChinaJK06Ad02html Ben Simpfendorfer ldquoSyria and the lsquoChina Growth Modelrsquordquo Forbes May 21 2009 httpwwwforbescomfdcwelcome_mjxshtml Juan Jarrah ldquoRebirth of the Silk Road and Un-attening of the Worldrdquo Forward Magazine January 26 2009 Shahid ureshi

ldquoSyria and lsquoChinese Silkrsquo Roadrdquo London Post October 29 2009 httpwwwthelondonpostnettm02dec09html Phil Sands ldquoChinarsquosInuence in Syria Goes Beyond rade Boomrdquo e National August 26 2008 httpwwwthenationalaenewsworldwideasia-pacicchinas-inuence-in-syria-goes-beyond-trade-boom

103 Jin Liangxiang ldquoEnergy First China and the Middle Eastrdquo Middle East Quarterly 12 no 2 (Spring 2005) pp 3ndash10 httpwwwmefo-rumorg694energy-rst

104 Ibid105 Juan Jarrah ldquoRebirth of the Silk Roadrdquo Simpfendorfer ldquoChina and Syria Restartrdquo106 Simpfendorfer ldquoSyria and the lsquoChina Growth Modelrsquordquo10 Ibid108 Stuart Reigeluth ldquoTe Arab Gas Pipelinerdquo Forward Magazine February 2010109 ldquoSyria Energy Prole o Double Natural Gas Production in 2010rdquo Eurasia Review June 29 2010 httpwwwzimbiocomSyria

articlesN4IpzFvi41-Syria+Energy+Prole+Double+Natural+Gas+Production 110 ldquoAzerbaijan to Sell Gas to Syria through urkeyrdquo World Bulletin July 2 2010 httpwwwworldbulletinnetindexphpaype=haber

ampArticleID=55131 ldquoSyria Intends to Buy Azerbaijani Gas in Mid-2011rdquo Turkish Weekly June 29 2010 httpwwwturkishweeklynetnews103803syria-intends-to-buy-azerbaijani-gas-in-mid-2011html

111 ldquoGazprom May Join Arab Gas Pipelinerdquo Pipelines International May 12 2010112 Julien Barnes-Dacey ldquoSyria Looks to Iraq for an Economic Boostrdquo Wall Street Journal June 1 2009 httponlinewsjcomarticle

SB1243813335445054html 113 Ibid114 Paul Goble ldquoChina Pursuing a lsquoSilk Road Strategyrsquo f rom the Eastrdquo Georgian Daily January 2 2010 httpgeorgiandailycomindex

phpoption=com_contentamptask=viewampid=16683ampItemid=2115 Moore ldquoKing rsquos Cross to Beijingrdquo116 Peter Simpson and David Wilkes ldquoOrient Super Express From London to Beijing by rainin Just wo Daysrdquo Daily Mail March 9

2010 httpwwwdailymailcouknewsworldnewsarticle-1256536200mph-train-link-London-Beijing-just-dayshtml 11 Moore ldquoKing rsquos Cross to Beijingrdquo118 Syrian Enterprise and Business Center ldquoSyria Increases Its Rail-Way Prospectsrdquo press release December 6 2009 h ttpwwwsebcsyria

orgweb2008artphpart_id=151




26 Policy Focus 109

119 ldquourkey Calls on China for Strategic Railway Cooperationrdquo World Bulletin July 2010 httpwwwworldbulletinnetindexphpaype=haberampArticleID=61009 ldquourkey China Mull Railway Cooperationrdquo New Europe July 18 2010 httpwwwneuropeeuarticles102051php

120 ldquoChina Iran Ink Major Railroad Dealrdquo al-Bawaba September 13 2010 httpwww1albawabacomtransportchina-iran-ink-major-railroad-deal

121 homas Seibert ldquourkey Lays rack on lsquoIron Silk Roadrsquordquo The National June 9 2008 httpgeorgiandailycomindex

phpoption=com_contentamptask=viewampid=296ampItemid=4 122 Ibid See also Ray LaHood ldquoWorldrsquos ransportation Planners Marvel as urkeyrsquos Marmaray unnel Nears Completionrdquo ocial blog of the US secretary of transportation July 6 2010 httpfastlanedotgov20100worlds-transportation-planners-marvel-as-turkeys-marmaray-tunnel-nears-completionhtml ldquoUS Secretary of ransportation Praises Istanbulrsquos Marmaray Projectrdquo Hurriyet Daily News

June 30 2010 httpwwwhurriyetdailynewscomnphpn=us-secretary-of-transportation-eulogizes-marmaray-project-2010-06-30ldquoMarmaray Railway Engineering Project Istanbul urkeyrdquo Railway-echnologycom httpwwwrailway-technologycomprojectsmarmaray

123 Seibert ldquourkey Lays rackrdquo124 Farkhad Sharip ldquoChinarsquos Expansionist Policy toward Kazakhstan akes a New urnrdquo Eurasia Daily Monitor no 209 (November 1

2010) httpwwwjamestownorgsingleno_cache=1amptx_ttnews5Btt_news5D=3181amptx_ttnews5BbackPid5D=13ampcHash=60c18d8b32

125 Mark Ellis ldquoRising Chinese Inuence in Middle Eastrdquo Cypress Times November 19 2010 httpwwwthecypresstimescomarticleChristian_NewsChristian_News_InternationalRISING_CHINESE_INFLUENCE_IN_MIDDLE_EAS_A_FOREASE_OF_PROPHEIC_FULFILLMEN36460

126 ldquoChina Railway Will Be through the Persian Gulfrdquo Global Military November 20 2010 httpwwwglobal-militarycomchina-railway-will-be-through-the-persian-gulfhtml ldquoA New lsquoOrient Expressrsquo between Istanbul and Beijingrdquo Asia News October 28 2010httpwwwasianewsitnews-enA-new-lsquoOrient-Expressrsquo-between-Istanbul-and-Beijing-19844html

12 ldquoPLA Uses Shanghai-Nanjing Express Railway to ransport roops for First imerdquo China Army November 19 2010 httpengmodgovcnDefenseNews2010-1119content_4209055htm128 ldquoChina High Speed Rail to Meet Military Requirementsrdquo Xinhua December 2010 httpwwwzimbiocomXi+Jinpingarticles

hM30UV5P3wBChina+Update+December+9+2010 129 ldquoChina Military Railway ransportrdquo Pakistan Defence June 22 2010 httpwwwdefencepkforumschina-defence62935-china-s-

military-railway-transporthtml130 Jiang Jiuhong and Luo Cheng ldquoPLA Air Force Important Combat Readiness Materials ransported to ibet by Railwayrdquo PLA Daily

August 3 2010 httpwwwdefencepkforumschina-defence68104-pla-air-force-important-combat-readiness-materials-trans- ported-tibet-railwayhtml

131 ldquoPLA Kicks O Largest actical Military Exerciserdquo Xinhua August 11 2010 httpwwwdefencepkforumschina-defence31481- pla-kicks-o-largest-tactical-military-exercise-50-000-troopshtml

132 Moore ldquoKingrsquos Cross to Beijingrdquo133 Lin ldquoTe Caspian Seardquo See also ldquoSyria in Chinarsquos New Silk Road Strategyrdquo China Brief 10 no 8 (April 16 2010) httpwwwjames-

townorgprogramschinabriefsingletx_ttnews5Btt_news5D=36264amptx_ttnews5BbackPid5D=25ampcHash=25395219 134 William Hamilton ldquoHamilton Between Red China and the Deep Black Seardquo Skyhi Daily News June 22 2010 httpwwwskyhidai-

lynewscomarticle20100622COLUMNISS10062996135 Lin ldquoMilitarisation of Chinarsquos Energy Security Policyrdquo

136 Hamilton ldquoBetween Red Chinardquo ldquoChina Building Aircra Carrier Maorsquos Grandsonrdquo Economic Times September 14 2010 httparticleseconomictimesindiatimescom2010-09-14news260591_1_aircra-carrier-china-global-times Stephanie Ho ldquoChina Working to Counter US Naval Power in the Pacicrdquo Voice of America September 21 2010 httpwwwvoanewscomenglishnewsVOA-China-Working-to-Counter-US-Naval-Power-in-the-Pacic-103422994html

13 ldquoRussia Ukraine urkey to Establish Black Sea Defense Alliancerdquo RIA Noosti June 18 2010 httpenrianru papers2010062815960548html ldquourkey Ukraine and Russia Building Military Alliancerdquo Vestinik Kavkaza June 29 2010 http vestnikkavkazanetnewspolitics2994html Corneliu Pivariu ldquoA New Military Alliance at the Black Seardquo World Security Network July 2010 httpwwwworldsecuritynetworkcomshowArticle3cfmarticle_id=18345amptopicID=53

138 Bao Daozu ldquoNAO Alliance Seeks to Engage Chinardquo China Daily October 15 2010 httpwwwchinadailycomcnchina2010-1015content_11413319htm

139 Choi Chi-yuk and Greg orode ldquoChina and urkey in Joint Drill PLA roops Sent to NAO Country for the First imerdquo SouthChina Morning Post November 9 2010 ldquoChina urkey Kicks O Week-Long Military rainingrsquordquo Xinhua November 9 2010 httpenglishpeopledailycomcn9000190690883192914html ldquoChina urkey Conduct Second Major Exerciserdquo World TribuneNovember 12 2010 httpwwwworldtribunecomworldtribuneWARC2010me_turkey1121_11_12asp

140 ldquoBulgaria Invites Chinese Companies to Invest in Black Sea Portsrdquo Standart News October 28 2010 httppaperstandartnewscomenarticlephpd=2010-10-28amparticle=34552

141 Maxim Krans ldquoSCO Energy Club What It Will Be Likerdquo InfoSCO October 28 2009 httpinfoshosruenidn=5040

142 Vladimir Socor ldquoUS-Azerbaijan Relations State of the lsquoStrategic Partnershiprsquordquo presentation at the Jamestown Foundation and Cen-tral AsiandashCaucasus Institute conference Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Washington DC November 9 2010143 ldquoIsrael China Discuss Cooperation in Search for Renewable Energyrdquo Peoplersquos Daily December 1 2010 httpenglishpeopledaily

comcn900019069088323343html ldquoChina Israel Discuss Cooperation on Energyrdquo CCV December 22 2010 httpenglishcntvcnprogramasiatoday20101222103688shtml ldquoChina Eyes Gas Deal with Israel Consortium Reportrdquo Reuters January2 2010 httpwwwreuterscomarticle2010012israel-natgas-china-idUSLDE60Q0DU2010012

144 M K Bhadrakumar ldquoPipeline Project a New Silk Roadrdquo Bhadrakumar ldquoNAO Weaves South Asian Webrdquo Asia Times December 232010 httpwwwatimescomatimesSouth_AsiaLL23Df05html

145 M Ashraf Haidari ldquoTe Silk Road to Opportunitiesrdquo Diplomatic Trac January 28 2008 httpwwwdiplomatictraccomopin-ions_archivesaspID=156

146 Ibid





Board of Directors President Martin J Gross

ChairmanHoward P Berkowitz

Chairman EmeritiFred S LaferMichael Stein

Founding President and Chairman Emerita

Barbi Weinberg Senior Vice PresidentsBernard LeventhalPeter Lowy James Schreiber

Vice PresidentsCharles AdlerBenjamin Breslauer Walter P Stern

Secretary

Richard S AbramsonTreasurer Dimitri Sogolo

Board MembersAnthony BeyerRichard BorowRobert FromerMichael GelmanRoger Hertog emeritusShelly Kassen

Michael KestonDaniel MintzZachary SchreiberFred SchwartzMerryl ischGary Wexler

Next Generation Leadership Council Jill AbramsonAnthony BeyerDavid Eigen chair Daniel Eisenstadt Jonathan S GilbertBenjamin GordonAdam Herz James KestonZachary Schreiber Whitney Skibell

Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors

Lawrence S EagleburgerMax M KampelmanHenry A KissingerSamuel W LewisEdward LuttwakMichael MandelbaumRobert C McFarlaneMartin PeretzRichard Perle James G RocheGeorge P ShultzR James WoolseyMortimer Zuckerman

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy











Christina Lin














Contents

About the Author v

Acknowledgments vii


Introduction xv





Notes 21

Illustrations




Tables











Acknowledgments








Executive Summary



















x Policy Focus 109

































































4








Introduction





























Sea

Black S e a

C a s p

i a n

S e a

S t r a

i t o f M

a l a c c a

Baku

Kabul

Sana

Cairo

Riyadh

Tehran

Astana

Moscow

Ankara

Bishkek

Baghdad

Tashkent

Dushanbe

Ashgabat

Tbilisi

Islamabad

New Delhi

Mogadishu

Istanbul

Kyzllorda

Urumqi

C

La

Bandar Abbas

Ceyhan

Aqaba

Erzurum

al-Arish

Homs

Asaluyeh

Karachi

Herat

Kashgar

Atryau






Port Sudanfacility

Kra Canal






0

0

500 mi

500 km



Ch


Karakoram Highway

Oil or gas pipeline

















Coal71

Oil19

Hydroelectric6

Natural Gas3

Nuclear1

Other

Renewables02







4 Policy Focus 109






















Committee member

Premier


Vice Premier








Information




















6 Policy Focus 109






























8 Policy Focus 109




































10 Policy Focus 109











































12 Policy Focus 109































14 Policy Focus 109




























































18 Policy Focus 109




























4




20 Policy Focus 109

















4




Notes


























22 Policy Focus 109




























Notes Christina Lin




























24 Policy Focus 109

























Notes Christina Lin































26 Policy Focus 109




























146 Ibid











Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors











Christina Lin














Contents

About the Author v

Acknowledgments vii


Introduction xv





Notes 21

Illustrations




Tables











Acknowledgments








Executive Summary



















x Policy Focus 109

































































4








Introduction





























Sea

Black S e a

C a s p

i a n

S e a

S t r a

i t o f M

a l a c c a

Baku

Kabul

Sana

Cairo

Riyadh

Tehran

Astana

Moscow

Ankara

Bishkek

Baghdad

Tashkent

Dushanbe

Ashgabat

Tbilisi

Islamabad

New Delhi

Mogadishu

Istanbul

Kyzllorda

Urumqi

C

La

Bandar Abbas

Ceyhan

Aqaba

Erzurum

al-Arish

Homs

Asaluyeh

Karachi

Herat

Kashgar

Atryau






Port Sudanfacility

Kra Canal






0

0

500 mi

500 km



Ch


Karakoram Highway

Oil or gas pipeline

















Coal71

Oil19

Hydroelectric6

Natural Gas3

Nuclear1

Other

Renewables02







4 Policy Focus 109






















Committee member

Premier


Vice Premier








Information




















6 Policy Focus 109






























8 Policy Focus 109




































10 Policy Focus 109











































12 Policy Focus 109































14 Policy Focus 109




























































18 Policy Focus 109




























4




20 Policy Focus 109

















4




Notes


























22 Policy Focus 109




























Notes Christina Lin




























24 Policy Focus 109

























Notes Christina Lin































26 Policy Focus 109




























146 Ibid











Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors



















Contents

About the Author v

Acknowledgments vii


Introduction xv





Notes 21

Illustrations




Tables











Acknowledgments








Executive Summary



















x Policy Focus 109

































































4








Introduction





























Sea

Black S e a

C a s p

i a n

S e a

S t r a

i t o f M

a l a c c a

Baku

Kabul

Sana

Cairo

Riyadh

Tehran

Astana

Moscow

Ankara

Bishkek

Baghdad

Tashkent

Dushanbe

Ashgabat

Tbilisi

Islamabad

New Delhi

Mogadishu

Istanbul

Kyzllorda

Urumqi

C

La

Bandar Abbas

Ceyhan

Aqaba

Erzurum

al-Arish

Homs

Asaluyeh

Karachi

Herat

Kashgar

Atryau






Port Sudanfacility

Kra Canal






0

0

500 mi

500 km



Ch


Karakoram Highway

Oil or gas pipeline

















Coal71

Oil19

Hydroelectric6

Natural Gas3

Nuclear1

Other

Renewables02







4 Policy Focus 109






















Committee member

Premier


Vice Premier








Information




















6 Policy Focus 109






























8 Policy Focus 109




































10 Policy Focus 109











































12 Policy Focus 109































14 Policy Focus 109




























































18 Policy Focus 109




























4




20 Policy Focus 109

















4




Notes


























22 Policy Focus 109




























Notes Christina Lin




























24 Policy Focus 109

























Notes Christina Lin































26 Policy Focus 109




























146 Ibid











Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors









Contents

About the Author v

Acknowledgments vii


Introduction xv





Notes 21

Illustrations




Tables











Acknowledgments








Executive Summary



















x Policy Focus 109

































































4








Introduction





























Sea

Black S e a

C a s p

i a n

S e a

S t r a

i t o f M

a l a c c a

Baku

Kabul

Sana

Cairo

Riyadh

Tehran

Astana

Moscow

Ankara

Bishkek

Baghdad

Tashkent

Dushanbe

Ashgabat

Tbilisi

Islamabad

New Delhi

Mogadishu

Istanbul

Kyzllorda

Urumqi

C

La

Bandar Abbas

Ceyhan

Aqaba

Erzurum

al-Arish

Homs

Asaluyeh

Karachi

Herat

Kashgar

Atryau






Port Sudanfacility

Kra Canal






0

0

500 mi

500 km



Ch


Karakoram Highway

Oil or gas pipeline

















Coal71

Oil19

Hydroelectric6

Natural Gas3

Nuclear1

Other

Renewables02







4 Policy Focus 109






















Committee member

Premier


Vice Premier








Information




















6 Policy Focus 109






























8 Policy Focus 109




































10 Policy Focus 109











































12 Policy Focus 109































14 Policy Focus 109




























































18 Policy Focus 109




























4




20 Policy Focus 109

















4




Notes


























22 Policy Focus 109




























Notes Christina Lin




























24 Policy Focus 109

























Notes Christina Lin































26 Policy Focus 109




























146 Ibid











Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors
















Acknowledgments








Executive Summary



















x Policy Focus 109

































































4








Introduction





























Sea

Black S e a

C a s p

i a n

S e a

S t r a

i t o f M

a l a c c a

Baku

Kabul

Sana

Cairo

Riyadh

Tehran

Astana

Moscow

Ankara

Bishkek

Baghdad

Tashkent

Dushanbe

Ashgabat

Tbilisi

Islamabad

New Delhi

Mogadishu

Istanbul

Kyzllorda

Urumqi

C

La

Bandar Abbas

Ceyhan

Aqaba

Erzurum

al-Arish

Homs

Asaluyeh

Karachi

Herat

Kashgar

Atryau






Port Sudanfacility

Kra Canal






0

0

500 mi

500 km



Ch


Karakoram Highway

Oil or gas pipeline

















Coal71

Oil19

Hydroelectric6

Natural Gas3

Nuclear1

Other

Renewables02







4 Policy Focus 109






















Committee member

Premier


Vice Premier








Information




















6 Policy Focus 109






























8 Policy Focus 109




































10 Policy Focus 109











































12 Policy Focus 109































14 Policy Focus 109




























































18 Policy Focus 109




























4




20 Policy Focus 109

















4




Notes


























22 Policy Focus 109




























Notes Christina Lin




























24 Policy Focus 109

























Notes Christina Lin































26 Policy Focus 109




























146 Ibid











Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors














Acknowledgments








Executive Summary



















x Policy Focus 109

































































4








Introduction





























Sea

Black S e a

C a s p

i a n

S e a

S t r a

i t o f M

a l a c c a

Baku

Kabul

Sana

Cairo

Riyadh

Tehran

Astana

Moscow

Ankara

Bishkek

Baghdad

Tashkent

Dushanbe

Ashgabat

Tbilisi

Islamabad

New Delhi

Mogadishu

Istanbul

Kyzllorda

Urumqi

C

La

Bandar Abbas

Ceyhan

Aqaba

Erzurum

al-Arish

Homs

Asaluyeh

Karachi

Herat

Kashgar

Atryau






Port Sudanfacility

Kra Canal






0

0

500 mi

500 km



Ch


Karakoram Highway

Oil or gas pipeline

















Coal71

Oil19

Hydroelectric6

Natural Gas3

Nuclear1

Other

Renewables02







4 Policy Focus 109






















Committee member

Premier


Vice Premier








Information




















6 Policy Focus 109






























8 Policy Focus 109




































10 Policy Focus 109











































12 Policy Focus 109































14 Policy Focus 109




























































18 Policy Focus 109




























4




20 Policy Focus 109

















4




Notes


























22 Policy Focus 109




























Notes Christina Lin




























24 Policy Focus 109

























Notes Christina Lin































26 Policy Focus 109




























146 Ibid











Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors












Acknowledgments








Executive Summary



















x Policy Focus 109

































































4








Introduction





























Sea

Black S e a

C a s p

i a n

S e a

S t r a

i t o f M

a l a c c a

Baku

Kabul

Sana

Cairo

Riyadh

Tehran

Astana

Moscow

Ankara

Bishkek

Baghdad

Tashkent

Dushanbe

Ashgabat

Tbilisi

Islamabad

New Delhi

Mogadishu

Istanbul

Kyzllorda

Urumqi

C

La

Bandar Abbas

Ceyhan

Aqaba

Erzurum

al-Arish

Homs

Asaluyeh

Karachi

Herat

Kashgar

Atryau






Port Sudanfacility

Kra Canal






0

0

500 mi

500 km



Ch


Karakoram Highway

Oil or gas pipeline

















Coal71

Oil19

Hydroelectric6

Natural Gas3

Nuclear1

Other

Renewables02







4 Policy Focus 109






















Committee member

Premier


Vice Premier








Information




















6 Policy Focus 109






























8 Policy Focus 109




































10 Policy Focus 109











































12 Policy Focus 109































14 Policy Focus 109




























































18 Policy Focus 109




























4




20 Policy Focus 109

















4




Notes


























22 Policy Focus 109




























Notes Christina Lin




























24 Policy Focus 109

























Notes Christina Lin































26 Policy Focus 109




























146 Ibid











Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors










Acknowledgments








Executive Summary



















x Policy Focus 109

































































4








Introduction





























Sea

Black S e a

C a s p

i a n

S e a

S t r a

i t o f M

a l a c c a

Baku

Kabul

Sana

Cairo

Riyadh

Tehran

Astana

Moscow

Ankara

Bishkek

Baghdad

Tashkent

Dushanbe

Ashgabat

Tbilisi

Islamabad

New Delhi

Mogadishu

Istanbul

Kyzllorda

Urumqi

C

La

Bandar Abbas

Ceyhan

Aqaba

Erzurum

al-Arish

Homs

Asaluyeh

Karachi

Herat

Kashgar

Atryau






Port Sudanfacility

Kra Canal






0

0

500 mi

500 km



Ch


Karakoram Highway

Oil or gas pipeline

















Coal71

Oil19

Hydroelectric6

Natural Gas3

Nuclear1

Other

Renewables02







4 Policy Focus 109






















Committee member

Premier


Vice Premier








Information




















6 Policy Focus 109






























8 Policy Focus 109




































10 Policy Focus 109











































12 Policy Focus 109































14 Policy Focus 109




























































18 Policy Focus 109




























4




20 Policy Focus 109

















4




Notes


























22 Policy Focus 109




























Notes Christina Lin




























24 Policy Focus 109

























Notes Christina Lin































26 Policy Focus 109




























146 Ibid











Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors












Executive Summary



















x Policy Focus 109

































































4








Introduction





























Sea

Black S e a

C a s p

i a n

S e a

S t r a

i t o f M

a l a c c a

Baku

Kabul

Sana

Cairo

Riyadh

Tehran

Astana

Moscow

Ankara

Bishkek

Baghdad

Tashkent

Dushanbe

Ashgabat

Tbilisi

Islamabad

New Delhi

Mogadishu

Istanbul

Kyzllorda

Urumqi

C

La

Bandar Abbas

Ceyhan

Aqaba

Erzurum

al-Arish

Homs

Asaluyeh

Karachi

Herat

Kashgar

Atryau






Port Sudanfacility

Kra Canal






0

0

500 mi

500 km



Ch


Karakoram Highway

Oil or gas pipeline

















Coal71

Oil19

Hydroelectric6

Natural Gas3

Nuclear1

Other

Renewables02







4 Policy Focus 109






















Committee member

Premier


Vice Premier








Information




















6 Policy Focus 109






























8 Policy Focus 109




































10 Policy Focus 109











































12 Policy Focus 109































14 Policy Focus 109




























































18 Policy Focus 109




























4




20 Policy Focus 109

















4




Notes


























22 Policy Focus 109




























Notes Christina Lin




























24 Policy Focus 109

























Notes Christina Lin































26 Policy Focus 109




























146 Ibid











Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors










Executive Summary



















x Policy Focus 109

































































4








Introduction





























Sea

Black S e a

C a s p

i a n

S e a

S t r a

i t o f M

a l a c c a

Baku

Kabul

Sana

Cairo

Riyadh

Tehran

Astana

Moscow

Ankara

Bishkek

Baghdad

Tashkent

Dushanbe

Ashgabat

Tbilisi

Islamabad

New Delhi

Mogadishu

Istanbul

Kyzllorda

Urumqi

C

La

Bandar Abbas

Ceyhan

Aqaba

Erzurum

al-Arish

Homs

Asaluyeh

Karachi

Herat

Kashgar

Atryau






Port Sudanfacility

Kra Canal






0

0

500 mi

500 km



Ch


Karakoram Highway

Oil or gas pipeline

















Coal71

Oil19

Hydroelectric6

Natural Gas3

Nuclear1

Other

Renewables02







4 Policy Focus 109






















Committee member

Premier


Vice Premier








Information




















6 Policy Focus 109






























8 Policy Focus 109




































10 Policy Focus 109











































12 Policy Focus 109































14 Policy Focus 109




























































18 Policy Focus 109




























4




20 Policy Focus 109

















4




Notes


























22 Policy Focus 109




























Notes Christina Lin




























24 Policy Focus 109

























Notes Christina Lin































26 Policy Focus 109




























146 Ibid











Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors










x Policy Focus 109

































































4








Introduction





























Sea

Black S e a

C a s p

i a n

S e a

S t r a

i t o f M

a l a c c a

Baku

Kabul

Sana

Cairo

Riyadh

Tehran

Astana

Moscow

Ankara

Bishkek

Baghdad

Tashkent

Dushanbe

Ashgabat

Tbilisi

Islamabad

New Delhi

Mogadishu

Istanbul

Kyzllorda

Urumqi

C

La

Bandar Abbas

Ceyhan

Aqaba

Erzurum

al-Arish

Homs

Asaluyeh

Karachi

Herat

Kashgar

Atryau






Port Sudanfacility

Kra Canal






0

0

500 mi

500 km



Ch


Karakoram Highway

Oil or gas pipeline

















Coal71

Oil19

Hydroelectric6

Natural Gas3

Nuclear1

Other

Renewables02







4 Policy Focus 109






















Committee member

Premier


Vice Premier








Information




















6 Policy Focus 109






























8 Policy Focus 109




































10 Policy Focus 109











































12 Policy Focus 109































14 Policy Focus 109




























































18 Policy Focus 109




























4




20 Policy Focus 109

















4




Notes


























22 Policy Focus 109




























Notes Christina Lin




























24 Policy Focus 109

























Notes Christina Lin































26 Policy Focus 109




























146 Ibid











Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors
























































4








Introduction





























Sea

Black S e a

C a s p

i a n

S e a

S t r a

i t o f M

a l a c c a

Baku

Kabul

Sana

Cairo

Riyadh

Tehran

Astana

Moscow

Ankara

Bishkek

Baghdad

Tashkent

Dushanbe

Ashgabat

Tbilisi

Islamabad

New Delhi

Mogadishu

Istanbul

Kyzllorda

Urumqi

C

La

Bandar Abbas

Ceyhan

Aqaba

Erzurum

al-Arish

Homs

Asaluyeh

Karachi

Herat

Kashgar

Atryau






Port Sudanfacility

Kra Canal






0

0

500 mi

500 km



Ch


Karakoram Highway

Oil or gas pipeline

















Coal71

Oil19

Hydroelectric6

Natural Gas3

Nuclear1

Other

Renewables02







4 Policy Focus 109






















Committee member

Premier


Vice Premier








Information




















6 Policy Focus 109






























8 Policy Focus 109




































10 Policy Focus 109











































12 Policy Focus 109































14 Policy Focus 109




























































18 Policy Focus 109




























4




20 Policy Focus 109

















4




Notes


























22 Policy Focus 109




























Notes Christina Lin




























24 Policy Focus 109

























Notes Christina Lin































26 Policy Focus 109




























146 Ibid











Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors




























4








Introduction





























Sea

Black S e a

C a s p

i a n

S e a

S t r a

i t o f M

a l a c c a

Baku

Kabul

Sana

Cairo

Riyadh

Tehran

Astana

Moscow

Ankara

Bishkek

Baghdad

Tashkent

Dushanbe

Ashgabat

Tbilisi

Islamabad

New Delhi

Mogadishu

Istanbul

Kyzllorda

Urumqi

C

La

Bandar Abbas

Ceyhan

Aqaba

Erzurum

al-Arish

Homs

Asaluyeh

Karachi

Herat

Kashgar

Atryau






Port Sudanfacility

Kra Canal






0

0

500 mi

500 km



Ch


Karakoram Highway

Oil or gas pipeline

















Coal71

Oil19

Hydroelectric6

Natural Gas3

Nuclear1

Other

Renewables02







4 Policy Focus 109






















Committee member

Premier


Vice Premier








Information




















6 Policy Focus 109






























8 Policy Focus 109




































10 Policy Focus 109











































12 Policy Focus 109































14 Policy Focus 109




























































18 Policy Focus 109




























4




20 Policy Focus 109

















4




Notes


























22 Policy Focus 109




























Notes Christina Lin




























24 Policy Focus 109

























Notes Christina Lin































26 Policy Focus 109




























146 Ibid











Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors














Introduction





























Sea

Black S e a

C a s p

i a n

S e a

S t r a

i t o f M

a l a c c a

Baku

Kabul

Sana

Cairo

Riyadh

Tehran

Astana

Moscow

Ankara

Bishkek

Baghdad

Tashkent

Dushanbe

Ashgabat

Tbilisi

Islamabad

New Delhi

Mogadishu

Istanbul

Kyzllorda

Urumqi

C

La

Bandar Abbas

Ceyhan

Aqaba

Erzurum

al-Arish

Homs

Asaluyeh

Karachi

Herat

Kashgar

Atryau






Port Sudanfacility

Kra Canal






0

0

500 mi

500 km



Ch


Karakoram Highway

Oil or gas pipeline

















Coal71

Oil19

Hydroelectric6

Natural Gas3

Nuclear1

Other

Renewables02







4 Policy Focus 109






















Committee member

Premier


Vice Premier








Information




















6 Policy Focus 109






























8 Policy Focus 109




































10 Policy Focus 109











































12 Policy Focus 109































14 Policy Focus 109




























































18 Policy Focus 109




























4




20 Policy Focus 109

















4




Notes


























22 Policy Focus 109




























Notes Christina Lin




























24 Policy Focus 109

























Notes Christina Lin































26 Policy Focus 109




























146 Ibid











Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors












Introduction





























Sea

Black S e a

C a s p

i a n

S e a

S t r a

i t o f M

a l a c c a

Baku

Kabul

Sana

Cairo

Riyadh

Tehran

Astana

Moscow

Ankara

Bishkek

Baghdad

Tashkent

Dushanbe

Ashgabat

Tbilisi

Islamabad

New Delhi

Mogadishu

Istanbul

Kyzllorda

Urumqi

C

La

Bandar Abbas

Ceyhan

Aqaba

Erzurum

al-Arish

Homs

Asaluyeh

Karachi

Herat

Kashgar

Atryau






Port Sudanfacility

Kra Canal






0

0

500 mi

500 km



Ch


Karakoram Highway

Oil or gas pipeline

















Coal71

Oil19

Hydroelectric6

Natural Gas3

Nuclear1

Other

Renewables02







4 Policy Focus 109






















Committee member

Premier


Vice Premier








Information




















6 Policy Focus 109






























8 Policy Focus 109




































10 Policy Focus 109











































12 Policy Focus 109































14 Policy Focus 109




























































18 Policy Focus 109




























4




20 Policy Focus 109

















4




Notes


























22 Policy Focus 109




























Notes Christina Lin




























24 Policy Focus 109

























Notes Christina Lin































26 Policy Focus 109




























146 Ibid











Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors










Introduction





























Sea

Black S e a

C a s p

i a n

S e a

S t r a

i t o f M

a l a c c a

Baku

Kabul

Sana

Cairo

Riyadh

Tehran

Astana

Moscow

Ankara

Bishkek

Baghdad

Tashkent

Dushanbe

Ashgabat

Tbilisi

Islamabad

New Delhi

Mogadishu

Istanbul

Kyzllorda

Urumqi

C

La

Bandar Abbas

Ceyhan

Aqaba

Erzurum

al-Arish

Homs

Asaluyeh

Karachi

Herat

Kashgar

Atryau






Port Sudanfacility

Kra Canal






0

0

500 mi

500 km



Ch


Karakoram Highway

Oil or gas pipeline

















Coal71

Oil19

Hydroelectric6

Natural Gas3

Nuclear1

Other

Renewables02







4 Policy Focus 109






















Committee member

Premier


Vice Premier








Information




















6 Policy Focus 109






























8 Policy Focus 109




































10 Policy Focus 109











































12 Policy Focus 109































14 Policy Focus 109




























































18 Policy Focus 109




























4




20 Policy Focus 109

















4




Notes


























22 Policy Focus 109




























Notes Christina Lin




























24 Policy Focus 109

























Notes Christina Lin































26 Policy Focus 109




























146 Ibid











Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors





















Sea

Black S e a

C a s p

i a n

S e a

S t r a

i t o f M

a l a c c a

Baku

Kabul

Sana

Cairo

Riyadh

Tehran

Astana

Moscow

Ankara

Bishkek

Baghdad

Tashkent

Dushanbe

Ashgabat

Tbilisi

Islamabad

New Delhi

Mogadishu

Istanbul

Kyzllorda

Urumqi

C

La

Bandar Abbas

Ceyhan

Aqaba

Erzurum

al-Arish

Homs

Asaluyeh

Karachi

Herat

Kashgar

Atryau






Port Sudanfacility

Kra Canal






0

0

500 mi

500 km



Ch


Karakoram Highway

Oil or gas pipeline

















Coal71

Oil19

Hydroelectric6

Natural Gas3

Nuclear1

Other

Renewables02







4 Policy Focus 109






















Committee member

Premier


Vice Premier








Information




















6 Policy Focus 109






























8 Policy Focus 109




































10 Policy Focus 109











































12 Policy Focus 109































14 Policy Focus 109




























































18 Policy Focus 109




























4




20 Policy Focus 109

















4




Notes


























22 Policy Focus 109




























Notes Christina Lin




























24 Policy Focus 109

























Notes Christina Lin































26 Policy Focus 109




























146 Ibid











Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors















Sea

Black S e a

C a s p

i a n

S e a

S t r a

i t o f M

a l a c c a

Baku

Kabul

Sana

Cairo

Riyadh

Tehran

Astana

Moscow

Ankara

Bishkek

Baghdad

Tashkent

Dushanbe

Ashgabat

Tbilisi

Islamabad

New Delhi

Mogadishu

Istanbul

Kyzllorda

Urumqi

C

La

Bandar Abbas

Ceyhan

Aqaba

Erzurum

al-Arish

Homs

Asaluyeh

Karachi

Herat

Kashgar

Atryau






Port Sudanfacility

Kra Canal






0

0

500 mi

500 km



Ch


Karakoram Highway

Oil or gas pipeline

















Coal71

Oil19

Hydroelectric6

Natural Gas3

Nuclear1

Other

Renewables02







4 Policy Focus 109






















Committee member

Premier


Vice Premier








Information




















6 Policy Focus 109






























8 Policy Focus 109




































10 Policy Focus 109











































12 Policy Focus 109































14 Policy Focus 109




























































18 Policy Focus 109




























4




20 Policy Focus 109

















4




Notes


























22 Policy Focus 109




























Notes Christina Lin




























24 Policy Focus 109

























Notes Christina Lin































26 Policy Focus 109




























146 Ibid











Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors











Sea

Black S e a

C a s p

i a n

S e a

S t r a

i t o f M

a l a c c a

Baku

Kabul

Sana

Cairo

Riyadh

Tehran

Astana

Moscow

Ankara

Bishkek

Baghdad

Tashkent

Dushanbe

Ashgabat

Tbilisi

Islamabad

New Delhi

Mogadishu

Istanbul

Kyzllorda

Urumqi

C

La

Bandar Abbas

Ceyhan

Aqaba

Erzurum

al-Arish

Homs

Asaluyeh

Karachi

Herat

Kashgar

Atryau






Port Sudanfacility

Kra Canal






0

0

500 mi

500 km



Ch


Karakoram Highway

Oil or gas pipeline

















Coal71

Oil19

Hydroelectric6

Natural Gas3

Nuclear1

Other

Renewables02







4 Policy Focus 109






















Committee member

Premier


Vice Premier








Information




















6 Policy Focus 109






























8 Policy Focus 109




































10 Policy Focus 109











































12 Policy Focus 109































14 Policy Focus 109




























































18 Policy Focus 109




























4




20 Policy Focus 109

















4




Notes


























22 Policy Focus 109




























Notes Christina Lin




























24 Policy Focus 109

























Notes Christina Lin































26 Policy Focus 109




























146 Ibid











Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors




















Coal71

Oil19

Hydroelectric6

Natural Gas3

Nuclear1

Other

Renewables02







4 Policy Focus 109






















Committee member

Premier


Vice Premier








Information




















6 Policy Focus 109






























8 Policy Focus 109




































10 Policy Focus 109











































12 Policy Focus 109































14 Policy Focus 109




























































18 Policy Focus 109




























4




20 Policy Focus 109

















4




Notes


























22 Policy Focus 109




























Notes Christina Lin




























24 Policy Focus 109

























Notes Christina Lin































26 Policy Focus 109




























146 Ibid











Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors










4 Policy Focus 109






















Committee member

Premier


Vice Premier








Information




















6 Policy Focus 109






























8 Policy Focus 109




































10 Policy Focus 109











































12 Policy Focus 109































14 Policy Focus 109




























































18 Policy Focus 109




























4




20 Policy Focus 109

















4




Notes


























22 Policy Focus 109




























Notes Christina Lin




























24 Policy Focus 109

























Notes Christina Lin































26 Policy Focus 109




























146 Ibid











Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors















Committee member

Premier


Vice Premier








Information




















6 Policy Focus 109






























8 Policy Focus 109




































10 Policy Focus 109











































12 Policy Focus 109































14 Policy Focus 109




























































18 Policy Focus 109




























4




20 Policy Focus 109

















4




Notes


























22 Policy Focus 109




























Notes Christina Lin




























24 Policy Focus 109

























Notes Christina Lin































26 Policy Focus 109




























146 Ibid











Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors










6 Policy Focus 109






























8 Policy Focus 109




































10 Policy Focus 109











































12 Policy Focus 109































14 Policy Focus 109




























































18 Policy Focus 109




























4




20 Policy Focus 109

















4




Notes


























22 Policy Focus 109




























Notes Christina Lin




























24 Policy Focus 109

























Notes Christina Lin































26 Policy Focus 109




























146 Ibid











Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors



























8 Policy Focus 109




































10 Policy Focus 109











































12 Policy Focus 109































14 Policy Focus 109




























































18 Policy Focus 109




























4




20 Policy Focus 109

















4




Notes


























22 Policy Focus 109




























Notes Christina Lin




























24 Policy Focus 109

























Notes Christina Lin































26 Policy Focus 109




























146 Ibid











Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors










8 Policy Focus 109




































10 Policy Focus 109











































12 Policy Focus 109































14 Policy Focus 109




























































18 Policy Focus 109




























4




20 Policy Focus 109

















4




Notes


























22 Policy Focus 109




























Notes Christina Lin




























24 Policy Focus 109

























Notes Christina Lin































26 Policy Focus 109




























146 Ibid











Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors



























10 Policy Focus 109











































12 Policy Focus 109































14 Policy Focus 109




























































18 Policy Focus 109




























4




20 Policy Focus 109

















4




Notes


























22 Policy Focus 109




























Notes Christina Lin




























24 Policy Focus 109

























Notes Christina Lin































26 Policy Focus 109




























146 Ibid











Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors










10 Policy Focus 109











































12 Policy Focus 109































14 Policy Focus 109




























































18 Policy Focus 109




























4




20 Policy Focus 109

















4




Notes


























22 Policy Focus 109




























Notes Christina Lin




























24 Policy Focus 109

























Notes Christina Lin































26 Policy Focus 109




























146 Ibid











Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors


































12 Policy Focus 109































14 Policy Focus 109




























































18 Policy Focus 109




























4




20 Policy Focus 109

















4




Notes


























22 Policy Focus 109




























Notes Christina Lin




























24 Policy Focus 109

























Notes Christina Lin































26 Policy Focus 109




























146 Ibid











Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors










12 Policy Focus 109































14 Policy Focus 109




























































18 Policy Focus 109




























4




20 Policy Focus 109

















4




Notes


























22 Policy Focus 109




























Notes Christina Lin




























24 Policy Focus 109

























Notes Christina Lin































26 Policy Focus 109




























146 Ibid











Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors


























14 Policy Focus 109




























































18 Policy Focus 109




























4




20 Policy Focus 109

















4




Notes


























22 Policy Focus 109




























Notes Christina Lin




























24 Policy Focus 109

























Notes Christina Lin































26 Policy Focus 109




























146 Ibid











Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors










14 Policy Focus 109




























































18 Policy Focus 109




























4




20 Policy Focus 109

















4




Notes


























22 Policy Focus 109




























Notes Christina Lin




























24 Policy Focus 109

























Notes Christina Lin































26 Policy Focus 109




























146 Ibid











Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors

















































18 Policy Focus 109




























4




20 Policy Focus 109

















4




Notes


























22 Policy Focus 109




























Notes Christina Lin




























24 Policy Focus 109

























Notes Christina Lin































26 Policy Focus 109




























146 Ibid











Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors
































18 Policy Focus 109




























4




20 Policy Focus 109

















4




Notes


























22 Policy Focus 109




























Notes Christina Lin




























24 Policy Focus 109

























Notes Christina Lin































26 Policy Focus 109




























146 Ibid











Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors





























18 Policy Focus 109




























4




20 Policy Focus 109

















4




Notes


























22 Policy Focus 109




























Notes Christina Lin




























24 Policy Focus 109

























Notes Christina Lin































26 Policy Focus 109




























146 Ibid











Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors










18 Policy Focus 109




























4




20 Policy Focus 109

















4




Notes


























22 Policy Focus 109




























Notes Christina Lin




























24 Policy Focus 109

























Notes Christina Lin































26 Policy Focus 109




























146 Ibid











Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors






























4




20 Policy Focus 109

















4




Notes


























22 Policy Focus 109




























Notes Christina Lin




























24 Policy Focus 109

























Notes Christina Lin































26 Policy Focus 109




























146 Ibid











Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors










20 Policy Focus 109

















4




Notes


























22 Policy Focus 109




























Notes Christina Lin




























24 Policy Focus 109

























Notes Christina Lin































26 Policy Focus 109




























146 Ibid











Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors










Notes


























22 Policy Focus 109




























Notes Christina Lin




























24 Policy Focus 109

























Notes Christina Lin































26 Policy Focus 109




























146 Ibid











Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors










22 Policy Focus 109




























Notes Christina Lin




























24 Policy Focus 109

























Notes Christina Lin































26 Policy Focus 109




























146 Ibid











Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors










Notes Christina Lin




























24 Policy Focus 109

























Notes Christina Lin































26 Policy Focus 109




























146 Ibid











Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors










24 Policy Focus 109

























Notes Christina Lin































26 Policy Focus 109




























146 Ibid











Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors









Notes Christina Lin































26 Policy Focus 109




























146 Ibid











Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors










26 Policy Focus 109




























146 Ibid











Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors

















Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors















Secretary





Jonathan orop

Board of Advisors













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