1. Technology and business opportunities in Green IT
Bill St. Arnaud
Bill.st.arnaud@gmail.com
Unless otherwise noted all material in this slide deck may be reproduced, modified or distributed without prior permission of the author

2. Global Average Temperature
3. 2009 second warmest year ever
4. Jan, Feb Mar 2010 warmest ever
This is despite a solar sun spot minimum
5. Climate Forecasts

MIT report predicts median temperature forecast of 5.2C

6. 11C increase in Northern Canada & Europe 7. http://globalchange.mit.edu/pubs/abstract.php?publication_id=990 8. Last Ice age average global temperature was 5-6C cooler than today 9. Most of Canada & Europe was under 2-3 km ice 10. With BAU we are talking about 5-6C change in temperature in the opposite direction in less than 80 YearsMIT
11. Climate Change is not reversible
Climate Change is not like acid rain, water management or ozone destruction where environment will quickly return to normal once source of pollution is removed
GHG emissions will stay in the atmosphere for thousands of years and continue to accumulate
Planet will continue to warm up even if we drastically reduce emissions
Weaver et al., GRL (2007)
All we hope to achieve is to slow down the rapid rate of climate change
12. Climate tipping points
USGS report finds that future climate shifts have been underestimated and warns of debilitatingabrupt shift in climate that would be devastating.
Tipping elements in the Earth's climate- National Academies of Science
Society may be lulled into a false sense of security by smooth projections of global change. Our synthesis of present knowledge suggests that a variety of tipping elements could reach their critical point within this century under anthropogenic climate change.
13. The Global ICT Carbon Footprint isRoughly the Same as the Aviation Industry Today
But ICT Emissions are Growing at 6% Annually!
www.smart2020.org
ICT represent8% of global electricity consumption
Projected to grow to as much as 20% of all electrical consumption in the US(http://uclue.com/index.php?xq=724)
Future Broadband- Internet alone is expected to consume 5% of all electricity http://www.ee.unimelb.edu.au/people/rst/talks/files/Tucker_Green_Plenary.pdf
14. The Global ICT Carbon Footprint by Subsector
The Number of PCs (Desktops and Laptops) Globally is Expected to Increase from 592 Million in 2002 to More Than Four Billion in 2020
www.smart2020.org
Data Centers& Clouds Are Low Hanging Fruit
PCs Are Biggest Problem
Telecom & Internet fastest growing
15. IT biggest power draw
Energy Consumption World Wide
Transportation
25%
Energy Consumption Typical Building
Buildings
50%
Lighting
11%
Manufacturing
25%
IT Equipment
30-40%
Heating,
Cooling
and
Ventilation
40-50%
Other
6%
Sources: BOMA 2006, EIA 2006, AIA 2006
16. Digital vs Traditional appliances
17. Growth Projections Data Centers
Half of ICT consumption is data centers
In ten years50% of todays Data Centers and major science facilities in the US will have insufficient power and cooling;*
By 2012, half of all Data Centers will have to relocate or outsource applications to another facility.*
CO2 emissions from US datacenters greater than all CO2 emissions from Netherlands or Argentina http://bit.ly/cW6jEY
Coal fuels much of Internet 'cloud,' Greenpeace says http://bit.ly/bkeSec
Data centers will consume 12% of electricity in the US by 2020 (TV Telecom)
Source:Gartner; Meeting the DC power and cooling challenge
18. Green IT Enabling Effect is Significant
Can deliver carbon emission reductions five times size of sectors own footprint by 2020
7.8 Giga-tons carbon dioxide equivalent
Greater than US or Chinas current annual emissions
Key sectors include Transportation, Buildings, Industrial Processes,and Power
No other sector can achieve this enabler effect !!
Source:SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon economy in the information age, 2008
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19. The Falsehood of Energy Efficiency
Most current approaches to reduce carbon footprint are focused on increased energy efficiency of equipment and processes
Also greater efficiency can paradoxically increase energy consumption by reducing overall cost service and therefore stimulates demand
Khazzoom-Brookes postulate (aka Jevons paradox - not to be confused with rebound effect)
In last Energy crisis in 1973 Congress passed first energy efficiency laws (CAF) which mandate minimum mileage for cars, home insulation and appliances
Net effect was to reduce cost of driving car, heating or cooling home, and electricity required for appliances
Consumer response was to drive further, buy bigger homes and appliances
The issue is not the amount of energy that we use, but the type of energy
20. More on Energy Efficiency
If we add all of the potential savings from energy efficiency, they only abate about25%of GHG emissions.
To make matters worse, the low hanging fruit will grow smaller over time, decreasing returns to our efforts.
To reduce our GHG emissions by 85 percent by 2050, we need radical innovation to provide clean energy alternatives, rather than just using carbon-based fuels a bit more efficiently.
ITIF Institute - Debunking the Myths of Global Climate Change
Offsetting efficiency savings will be more people in the US in the next decase(391 million vs. 305 million), more households (147 million vs. 113 million), more vehicles (297 million vs. 231 million) and a bigger economy (almost double in size).Obama's Energy Pipe Dreams http://www.newsweek.com/2010/06/21/obama-s-energy-pipe-dreams.html
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21. Zero Carbon strategy essential
Zero carbon strategy using renewable energy critically important if governments mandate carbon neutrality, or if there is a climate catastrophe
With a zero carbon strategy growth in demand for services will not effectGHG emissions
Anything times zero is always zero
Wind and solar power are most likely candidates because of opportunity cost/benefit analysis especially time to deploy
Nuclear has high opportunity cost becauseof time to deploy
http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/14/stanford-study-part-1-wind-solar-baseload-easily-beat-nuclear-and-they-all-best-clean-coal/
But renewable energy sites are usually located far from cities and electrical distribution systems are not designed to carry load
http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2008/12/pdf/renewable_transmission.pdf
Local wind/solar will be an important component
22. Grand Challenge Building solutions using renewable energy only
Most government GHG plans plan to 30-40% of electrical power will come from renewable sources
How do you provide mission critical services when energy source is unreliable?
Ebbing wind or setting sun
Back up diesel and batteries are not an option because they are not zero carbon and power outages can last for days or weeks
Need new energy delivery architectures and business models to ensure reliable service delivery
R&E networks and clouds can play a critical role
Not so much in energy efficiency, but building smart solutions that adapt to availability of renewable power
23. MIT to build zero carbon data center in Holyoke MA
The data center will be managed and funded by the four main partners in the facility: the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cisco Systems, the University of Massachusetts and EMC.
It will be a high-performance computing environment that will help expand the research and development capabilities of the companies and schools in Holyoke
http://www.greenercomputing.com/news/2009/06/11/cisco-emc-team-mit-launch-100m-green-data-center
24. Evolving Internet & Impact on GHG
Van Jacobson predicted several years ago evolution away from end-to-end Internet to information Internet
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-6972678839686672840#
Current Internet is based on old telco architecture of connecting users
New Internet is based on connecting users to information
Arbor study has vindicated Van Jacobson prediction
C. Labovitz, et al "ATLAS Internet Observatory 2009 Annual Report" http://www.nanog.org/meetings/nanog47/presentations/Monday/Labovitz_ObserveReport_N47_Mon.pdf
Over 50% of Internet traffic is from handful of information suppliers such as Google, Akamai, Content Distribution networks etc
Will have major impact on wireless networks as we move from end to end cell phone network to cell phone Internet
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25. Traditional Internet
Small Content
Provider
Users Computer
Backbone
ISP1
Fiber
Networks
Regional
ISP
Last mile
ISP
Backbone ISP 2
IX
Thousands of miles
IX
Last mile
ISP
Backbone
ISP 3
Large Content
Provider with multiple servers
Users Computer
26. Information Internet zero carbon
Small Content
Provider
Users Computer
Backbone
ISP1
Regional
ISP
Last mile
ISP
Backbone ISP 2
IX
IX
Backbone
ISP 3
Last mile
ISP
Nearby
Cloud
CDN
Large Content
Provider
Users Computer
Content
hosted in ACI
27. New Internet
Increasingly most connections will be local to nearest IX where user will connect to cloud, CDN or social network
Connections to another user or computer at the edge of the cloud will be less common
Network topologies and architectures will be driven by application and content rather than connecting users end-to-end
Cyber-infrastructure and UCLP were forerunners of these development
Future wireless networks are likely to also evolve in this manner
Dont need an end to end network for accessing applications and content
User white space and wifi to provide data to cell phones
Next network neutrality battleground will be last inch open devices and last tower -
Much easier to deploy zero carbon Internet
CDN, clouds and social network infrastructure can be built along GSN model
Users will increasingly use solar powered iPhone, iPad to access information and applications
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28. Grand Challenge Building robust ICT services using renewable energy only
30% of electrical power will come from renewable sources
How do you provide mission critical ICT services when energy source is unreliable?
Ebbing wind or setting sun
Back up diesel and batteries are not an option because they are not zero carbon and power outages can last for days or weeks
Need new network architectures and business models to ensure reliable service delivery by quickly moving compute jobs and data sets around the world to sites that have available power
Will require high bandwidth networks and routing architectures to quickly move jobs and data sets from site to site
29. GENI Topology optimized by source destination
Sensor Network
Thin Client
Edge Site
Mobile Wireless Network
Wind Power
Substrate
Router
Solar Power
Wireless
Base Station
Source:Peter Freeman NSF
30. Mobile Wireless Network
GENI with router nodes at renewable energy sites
Sensor Network
Wind Power
Substrate
Router
Solar Power
Wireless
Base Station
Thin Client
Edge Site
Topology optimized by availability of energy
Source:Peter Freeman NSF
31. GreenStar Clouds and Virtualization
http://www.greenstarnetwork.com/

Sandbox for developing green communications enabled applications, such as clouds, Web services, virtualization, dematerialization, sensors, etc.

32. Share infrastructure & maximize lower cost power by following wind & sun networks. 33. Develop benchmarking tools to earn CO2 offset dollars for university and ICT department