56
Childhood Leukaemia Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester, UK ([email protected] ) Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

  • Upload
    ngotu

  • View
    217

  • Download
    1

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Childhood Leukaemia Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiationand Ionising Radiation

Richard WakefordRichard WakefordVisiting Professor in Epidemiology,

Dalton Nuclear Institute,The University of Manchester, UK

([email protected])

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

Page 2: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

ERR and EAR

• Cancer risk models may be expressed as either the Excess Relative Risk (ERR) or the Excess Absolute Risk (EAR).

• The ERR is the proportional increase in

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

• The ERR is the proportional increase in risk over the background absolute risk (in the absence of exposure).

• The EAR is the additional risk above the background absolute risk.

Page 3: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Measures of Risk

• ERR = (0.00045 –0.00015) / 0.00015

= 2

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

= 2

• EAR = 0.00045 –0.00015

= 0.0003

Page 4: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Leukaemia among Radiologists

• In 1944, persuasive evidence was published for a raised risk of leukaemia among US radiologists.

March HC. Leukemia in radiologists. Radiology 1944; 43: 275-278

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

March HC. Leukemia in radiologists. Radiology 1944; 43: 275-278

• An indication of a raised risk of myeloid leukaemia in French radiologists had been published in 1931.

Aubertin C. Leukaemia in radiologists. Gaz méd de France 1931 pp. 333-335

Page 5: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Hiroshima and Nagasaki• The studies of the Japanese survivors of

the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945 represent the epidemiological “Gold Standard” for

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

radiation risk estimates.• It is upon the experience of these

Japanese survivors that the risk estimates underlying radiological protection are primarily (but not solely) based.

Page 6: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Leukaemia among Survivors

• In 1948, alert clinicians noted an increase of leukaemia among the A-bomb survivors.

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

• This observation contributed to the establishment in October 1950 of the Life Span Study (LSS) cohort of Japanese atomic bomb survivors.

Page 7: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Life Span Study (LSS)

• Follow-up of ~86 500 survivors, ~49 000 of whom were non-trivially exposed (>5 mSv).

• Started in October 1950 and is still underway.• General population of “healthy” individuals of

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

• General population of “healthy” individuals of both sexes and all ages.

• Mortality and cancer incidence investigated. • Wide range of doses received with detailed

organ dose estimates.

Page 8: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Leukaemia in LSS

• Clear and pronounced excess risk of leukaemia in the atomic bomb survivors.

• Excess Relative Risk (ERR) at 1 Sv of

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

• Excess Relative Risk (ERR) at 1 Sv of leukaemia mortality in both sexes and all ages during 1950-2000

4.02 (90% CI: 3.02, 5.26)

Page 9: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Leukaemia Mortality, 1950-2000(Preston et al., Radiat Res 2004; 162: 377-89)

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

Page 10: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Leukaemia Mortality, 1950-2000(Preston et al., Radiat Res 2004; 162: 377-89)

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

Page 11: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Leukaemia Mortality, 1950-2000(Richardson et al., Radiat Res 2009; 172: 368-82)

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

Page 12: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Leukaemia Risk• Dose-response is sub-linear (the slope

increases as the dose increases) at moderate-to-high doses.

• Excess Relative Risk is greater at a younger age-at-exposure.

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

age-at-exposure.• Excess Relative Risk falls away with time-

since-exposure.• About ½ of ~200 leukaemia deaths among

the exposed bomb survivors are due to irradiation during the atomic bombings.

Page 13: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Childhood Leukaemia

• After October 1950, 10 cases of leukaemia occurred among Japanese survivors under the age of 15 years.

• This compares with less than one case

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

• This compares with less than one case expected among these children.

• A clear excess risk of childhood leukaemia exists as a result of radiation exposure from the bombings.

Page 14: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Childhood Leukaemia

• ERR coefficient for childhood leukaemia using incidence data from the LSS

34.4 (95% CI: 7.1, 414) Sv-1

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

34.4 (95% CI: 7.1, 414) Sv

• It is known that cases of leukaemia occurred before October 1950, but these cases are not included among those used to derive this ERR estimate.

Page 15: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Life Span Study (LSS)

• Acute, high dose-rate exposure.• Malnourished Japanese population; low

proportion of men of military age.• Some (retrospective) dose estimates

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

• Some (retrospective) dose estimates uncertain; predominantly external γ doses.

• “Healthy survivor effect”.• About half of the survivors still alive.• Data prior to October 1950 missing.

Page 16: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Medical Irradiation• The high relative risk of childhood

leukaemia following irradiation of infants or young children during the atomic bombings is confirmed by most (but not all) studies of those exposed

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

all) studies of those exposed therapeutically to treat a variety of malignant and benign medical conditions.

• Groups therapeutically exposed include: enlarged thymus gland, ringworm of the scalp, and skin haemangioma.

Page 17: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Medical Irradiation

• Although medically exposed groups offer a valuable complement to evidence derived from the Japanese atomic bomb survivors care in interpretation is required:

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

– Exposure occurs because of known or suspected disease and this may affect the subsequent risk

– Radiotherapy involves high and localised doses– Accurate dose estimates are often lacking

Page 18: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Oxford Survey of Childhood Cancers(OSCC)

• In the early-1950s a nationwide case-control study of mortality from leukaemia and other cancers among children in Great Britain was initiated by Dr Alice Stewart and her

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

initiated by Dr Alice Stewart and her colleagues. This became the Oxford Survey of Childhood Cancers (OSCC).

• First results reported in The Lancet in 1956 showed a statistical association between childhood cancer and antenatal radiography.

Page 19: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Childhood Leukaemia

• The most recent result from the OSCC for childhood leukaemia as a separate category was reported by Bithell and Stewart (1975):

Relative Risk (RR) = 1.49 (95% CI: 1.33, 1.67)

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

Relative Risk (RR) = 1.49 (95% CI: 1.33, 1.67)

• Results have now been reported from many independent case-control studies from around the world:

Page 20: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Case-control Study Study Details Cases (Exposed/Total) Information RR (un adjusted) 95% CI

Bithell and Stewart (1975) GB (OSCC); deaths, 1953-67 569/4052 297 1.49 (1.33, 1.67)

Monson and MacMahon (1984) NE USA; deaths, 1947-60 94/704 76 1.48 (1.18, 1.85)

Robinette and Jablon (1976) USA military hospitals; deaths, 1960-69 64/429 44 1.08 (0.80, 1.46)

Naumburg et al. (2001) Sweden; incident cases, 1973-89 68/624 29 1.13 (0.78, 1.63)

Roman et al. (2005) England & Wales (UKCCS); incident cases, 1992-96 37/1196 28 1.05 (0.73, 1.52)

Shu et al. (2002) North America (CCG); ALL incident cases, 1989-93 55/1809 26 1.16 (0.79, 1.71)

Polhemus and Koch (1959) Los Angeles; incident cases, 1950-57 66/251 23 1.23 (0.82, 1.85)

Infante-Rivard (2003) Quebec; ALL incident cases, 1980-98 42/701 21 0.85 (0.56, 1.30)

Hopton et al. (1985) N England; leukaemia and lymphoma incident cases, 1980-83 37/245 19 1.35 (0.86, 2.11)

Kaplan (1958) California; acute leukaemia deaths, 1955-56 40/150 17 1.60 (1.00, 2.57)

Graham et al. (1966) USA “tri-state”; incident cases, 1959-62 27/313 17 1.40 (0.87, 2.27)

van Steensel-Moll et al. (1985) Netherlands; ALL incident cases, 1973-79 41/517 12 2.22 (1.27, 3.88)

Ford et al. (1959) Louisiana; deaths, 1951-55 21/78 11 1.71 (0.96, 3.06)

Stewart (1973); Mole (1974) GB (OSCC) twins ; deaths, 1953-64 51/70 11 2.17 (1.19, 3.95)

Salonen (1976) Finland; incident cases, 1959-68 15/300 10 1.01 (0.54, 1.90)

Ager et al. (1965) Minnesota; deaths, 1953-57 20/107 10 1.27 (0.68, 2.37)

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

Roman et al. (1997) S England; incident cases, 1962-92 16/143 10 0.72 (0.39, 1.34)

Golding et al. (1992) SW England; incident cases, 1971-91 14/63 9 2.03 (1.06, 3.88)

Fajardo-Gutierréz et al. (1993) Mexico City; incident cases 16/80 7 1.89 (0.91, 3.95)

Magnani et al. (1990) N Italy; AL incident cases, 1981-84 10/164 6 1.09 (0.49, 2.44)

Rodvall et al. (1990) Swedish twins ; incident cases, 1952-83 10/27 5 1.83 (0.77, 4.31)

Gunz and Atkinson (1964) New Zealand; incident cases, 1958-61 14/102 5 1.11 (0.47, 2.61)

Shu et al. (1988) Shanghai; incident cases, 1974-86 8/309 4 1.86 (0.71, 4.87)

Roman et al. (1993) S England; leukaemia plus NHL incident cases, 1972-89 5/37 4 1.12 (0.40, 3.15)

Shu et al. (1994) North America (CCG); infant AL incident cases, 1983-88 7/291 4 1.10 (0.43, 2.83)

Harvey et al. (1985) Connecticut twins ; incident cases, 1935-81 5/13 3 1.81 (0.55, 5.99)

Wells and Steer (1961) New York; incident cases 4/77 3 0.72 (0.22, 2.34)

Kjeldsberg (1957) Norway; incident cases, 1946-56 5/55 3 0.59 (0.18, 1.93)

McKinney et al. (1999) Scotland (UKCCS), incident cases, 1991-94 6/144 3 2.31 (0.69, 7.70)

van Duijn et al. (1994) Netherlands; ANLL incident cases, 1973-79 6/80 3 2.35 (0.78, 6.99)

Murray et al. (1959) New York; deaths, 1940-57 3/65 2 0.92 (0.25, 3.36)

Gardner et al. (1990) NW England; incident cases, 1950-85 3/20 2 1.19 (0.31, 4.55)

Meinert et al. (1999) Germany; incident cases, 1980-94 3/1184 2 0.93 (0.24, 3.60)

Shu et al. (1994) Shanghai; AL incident cases, 1986-91 7/166 2 2.39 (0.61, 9.41)

Page 21: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Childhood Leukaemia OSCC vs. The Rest

(Wakeford, Radiat Prot Dosim 2008; 132:166-174)

Case-control Study

Cases (Exposed/Total)

Statistical Information

Relative Risk

95% Confidence

Interval

OSCCOSCC

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

OSCCOSCC(singleton plus

twin births)620/4122 308 1.51 (1.35, 1.69)

All Except All Except OSCCOSCC

(singleton plus twin births)

769/10444 420 1.28 (1.16, 1.40)

Page 22: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Risk Coefficients from OSCC• Using an Excess Relative Risk (ERR)

model obtained from the OSCC data, an ERR for a birth in 1959 may be obtained.

• Use the Adrian Committee average fetal dose estimate for 1958 of 6.1 mGy.

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

dose estimate for 1958 of 6.1 mGy.• Derive an ERR coefficient of

51 (95% CI: 28, 76) Gy-1

for all childhood cancers, which is taken to apply to childhood leukaemia.

R. Wakeford and M. P. Little, Int J Radiat Biol 2003; 79: 293-309

Page 23: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Bomb Survivors Irradiated In Utero• 807 Japanese A-bomb survivors were

irradiated in utero and received doses of at least 10 mGy (average dose 0.28 Gy).

• 2 incident cases of childhood (<15 years of

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

age) cancer were observed among these survivors (1 liver tumour and 1 kidney tumour) against, at most, 0.48 case expected from contemporaneous Japanese rates.

R. Wakeford and M. P. Little, Int J Radiat Biol 2003; 79: 293-309

Page 24: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Bomb Survivors Irradiated In Utero• 0 case of childhood leukaemia observed,

but only 0.2 expected– O/E has an upper 95% CL of 15.

• 2 cases of childhood solid tumours observed, against 0.28 expected

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

observed, against 0.28 expected – O/E = 7.14 (95% CI: 1.20, 23.60).

• Possibility that some cases of childhood cancer (particularly childhood leukaemia) occurring among the survivors before October 1950 went undetected.

Page 25: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Childhood LeukaemiaOSCC vs. Bomb Survivors

• The level of risk of childhood leukaemia associated with antenatal diagnostic radiography is compatible with that found among Japanese atomic bomb survivors

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

among Japanese atomic bomb survivors irradiated postnatally.

• The absence of childhood leukaemia among A-bomb survivors irradiated in utero may be due to small numbers, missing cases or some other factor (e.g. cell killing).

Page 26: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Chromosome Translocation Frequencies in Atomic Bomb Survivors Exposed in utero(●), and in some of

their Mothers (□). (Ohtaki et al. Radiat Res 2004; 161: 373-9)

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

Page 27: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Paediatric CT Scans

• Childhood leukaemia risk estimates suggest that the effect of doses ~10 mGy received during paediatric CT scans should be detectable in large case-control studies.be detectable in large case-control studies.

• Population prevalence rate of 5-10% is required for reasonable statistical power.

• Sufficiently high prevalence rates probably exist in the USA and Japan at the moment.

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

Page 28: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Natural Background Radiation(Wakeford et al., Leukemia 2009; 23: 770-6Little et al. J Radiol Prot 2009; 29: 467-82)

• Recent risk models for radiation-induced leukaemia suggest that ~15% of cases of childhood (<15 years of age) leukaemia in Great Britain may be caused by natural background radiation.

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

background radiation.– red bone marrow dose ~1.3 mSv per annum

• Epidemiological studies have been unable to reliably demonstrate this source of risk– probably have insufficient statistical power

Page 29: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Natural Background Radiation(Little et al. Radiat Res 2010; 174: 387-402)

• Power calculations show that large studies are required to detect the predicted excess risk– to achieve 80% power, >8000 cases are needed

in a case-control or geographical correlation study

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

in a case-control or geographical correlation study

• Greatest effect is from γ-rays, not radon.• First results from a nationwide record-based

case-control study of childhood cancer in Great Britain will be published soon.

Page 30: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Radon and Childhood Leukaemia• Several studies have examined the

potential link between exposure to radon and childhood leukaemia.

• The most persuasive of these studies is the nationwide Danish case-control study

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

the nationwide Danish case-control study of Raaschou-Nielsen et al. (Epidemiology2008; 19: 536-543).

• This study used model-predicted radon concentrations, which avoids participation bias but introduces exposure uncertainty.

Page 31: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Danish Radon Study(Raaschou-Nielsen et al., Epidemiology 2008; 19: 536-543)

• Found a statistically significant association between radon and childhood ALL, and concluded that 9% of cases in Denmark were attributable to radon.

• However, power is quite low, and the

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

• However, power is quite low, and the lower 95% CL for the attributable proportion is 1%, which is compatible with conventional risk models.

• Accuracy of model-predictions of radon concentrations needs further investigation.

Page 32: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Doses from Radon

• Harley and Robbins (Health Phys 2009; 97: 343-347) have suggested that doses from radon to circulating lymphocytes in the bronchial epithelium could be high.

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

• However, lymphocytes remain for only a short time in the bronchial epithelium and the dose from radon to circulating lymphocytes needs further examination.

Page 33: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Childhood Leukaemia and Nuclear Installations

• Since the mid-1980s, attention (sometimes substantial) has been paid to reports of excess levels of childhood leukaemia in the vicinity of nuclear installations.the vicinity of nuclear installations.

• Led to suggestions that radiation exposure as a consequence of operations at the installations was the cause.

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

Page 34: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Sellafield, Cumbria, UK

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

Page 35: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

At the End of the 1980s

• Evidence of excesses of childhood leukaemia near certain nuclear sites (Sellafield and Dounreay).

• No evidence that radiological assessments • No evidence that radiological assessments were seriously in error.

J W Stather et al., The Risk of Childhood Leukaemia Near Nuclear Establishments. Report NRPB-R215. National Radiological Protection Board, Chilton, 1988.

T E Wheldon, The assessment of risk of radiation-induced childhood leukaemia in the vicinity of nuclear installations. J R Statist Soc A 1989; 152: 327-39.

• Alternative explanations sought.

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

Page 36: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Paternal Preconceptional Irradiation (PPI)

(Gardner et al., BMJ 1990; 300: 423-9)

Leukaemia in West Cumbria, 1950-1985

Cumulative Preconceptional

Dose (mSv)

Leukaemia

Cases ‡

Controls *

Relative

Risk

95%

Confidence Interval

0

38

236

1.0

Reference

1-49

3

26

0.77

(0.20, 3.00)

50-99

1

11

0.78

(0.08. 7.73)

100+

4

3

8.38

(1.35, 51.99)

‡ diagnosed while under 25 years of age * “local” controls

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

Page 37: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

Page 38: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

Page 39: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Studies of PPI and Childhood Leukaemia/NHL(Wakeford, J Radiol Prot 2002; 22: 191-194)

Study Group Dose-responseModel

Relative Risk(100 mSv vs.

0 mSv)

95% ConfidenceInterval

Sellafield Inside Seascale Outside Seascale

Exponential Exponential Exponential

1.6 2.0 1.5

(1.0, 2.2) (1.0, 3.1) (0.7, 2.3)

Other British workers Exponential* 0.96 (0.31, 2.93)Other British workers Exponential* 0.96 (0.31, 2.93)Ontario workers ‡ Exponential

Linear0.750.63

(0.07, 3.31)(<0.27, 3.40)

US workers Linear 0.75 (<0.75, 3.5)Danish Thorotrastpatients

Exponential Linear

<0.11<0.97

(<0.11, 1.11)(<0.97, 1.56)

Japanese atomicbomb survivors ‡, †

Exponential Linear

0.76<0.98

(<0.31, 1.03)(<0.98, 1.10)

* Adjusted for radiation worker status ‡ Leukaemia only † Paternal dose only

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

Page 40: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

COMARE Seventh Report

“We find no convincing evidence to suggest that ionising radiation alone at the doses to which male radiation the doses to which male radiation workers have been exposed results in an increased incidence of childhood cancer.”

Committee on Medical Aspects of Radiation in the Environment, 2002

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

Page 41: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

KiKK Study in Germany(Spix et al., Eur J Cancer 2008; 44: 275-84

Kaatsch et al., Int J Cancer 2008; 1220: 721-6)

• KiKK Study was a population-based case-control study of cancer in young children (<5 years of age) living near 16 nuclear power stations in Germany.power stations in Germany.

• Suggested that cases of leukaemia resident within 5 km of a station tended to live closer to the station than unaffected matched control children.

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

Page 42: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

KiKK Study in Germany(COMARE Fourteenth Report, 2011)

• The interpretation of the KiKK Study results is not straightforward– significant association driven by data from 1980-

90, when data least reliable– significant association not confirmed by

comparable geographical study

• German SSK concludes that radiation doses from station emissions are too small by >1000 to explain the KiKK Study findings.

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

Page 43: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Leukaemia and Nuclear Sites(Laurier et al., Radiat Prot Dosim 2008; 132: 182-90)

• Clear evidence of excesses of childhood leukaemia incidence near Sellafield, Dounreay and Krümmel.

• Perhaps the risk of childhood leukaemia • Perhaps the risk of childhood leukaemia from the intake of radioactive materials has been grossly underestimated?

• Suggestion not confirmed by the UK Committee Examining Radiation Risks of Internal Emitters (CERRIE).

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

Page 44: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Cs-137 and Pu in Fallout(Warneke et al., Earth Planet Sci Lett 2002; 203: 1047-57)

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

Page 45: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Weapons Testing Fallout

40

50

60

Ave

rage

Indi

vidu

al E

ffect

ive

Dos

e, µ

Sv

Average Annual Effective Doses in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres from Ingestion and Inhalation of Radionuclides Produced in Atmospheric Nuclear Weapons Testing (UNSCEAR 2000)

Northern Hemisphere - Ingestion

Northern Hemisphere - Inhalation

Southern Hemisphere - Ingestion

Southern Hemisphere - Inhalation

0

10

20

30

1945 1948 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999

Ave

rage

Indi

vidu

al E

ffect

ive

Dos

e,

Calendar Year

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

Page 46: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Childhood Leukaemia Trends(Doll, J R Statist Soc A 1989; 152: 341-351)

Rates of Leukaemia Mortality and Registered Inciden ce among Children 0-14 Years of Age in England and Wales during the Twentiet h Century

25

30

35

40

Rat

e pe

r m

illio

n pe

rson

-yea

rsMortality (1911-85)Incidence (1961-84)

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

0

5

10

15

20

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990

Calendar Year

Rat

e pe

r m

illio

n pe

rson

-yea

rs

Page 47: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Childhood Leukaemia Incidence(Wakeford et al., Radiat Environ Biophys 2010; 49: 213-27)

Incidence Rate of All Leukaemias (Except Where Indi cated Otherwise) among Children Aged 0-14 Years, 1950-1990. Incidence Data from Eleven Cancer Regist ries.

Error Bars Show 95% Confidence Intervals for Rates.

60

70

80

90

100R

egis

tart

ion

Rat

e of

Leu

kaem

ia in

the

0-14

Yea

r A

ge G

roup

, ca

ses

per

mill

ion

pers

on-y

ears

Connecticut, 1950-1989 Saskatchewan, 1952-1986New Zealand, 1953-1990 Great Britain, 1962-1990Denmark, 1950-1984 Sweden, 1961-1987Norway, 1958-1987 Finland, 1958-1987

Hawaii, 1960-1984 Baltimore (AL), 1960-1974Western Australia (ALL), 1960-1990

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

0

10

20

30

40

50

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990

Calendar Year of Diagnosis

Reg

ista

rtio

n R

ate

of L

euka

emia

in th

e 0-

14 Y

ear

Age

Gro

up,

case

s pe

r m

illio

n pe

rson

-yea

rs

Page 48: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Childhood Leukaemia Incidence(Wakeford et al., Radiat Environ Biophys 2010; 49: 213-27)

Incidence Rate of All Leukaemias (Except Where Indi cated Otherwise) among Young Children Aged 0-4 Years, 1950-1990. Incidence Data from Ten Cancer Re gistries.

Error Bars Show 95% Confidence Intervals for Rates.

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200R

egis

tratio

n R

ate

of L

euka

emia

in th

e 0-

4 Y

ear A

ge G

roup

, ca

ses

per m

illio

n pe

rson

-yea

rs

Connecticut, 1950-1989 Saskatchewan, 1952-1986New Zealand, 1953-1990 Great Britain, 1953-1990Denmark, 1950-1984 Sweden, 1961-1987

Norway, 1958-1987 Finland, 1958-1987Baltimore (AL), 1960-1974 Western Australia (ALL), 1960-1990

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990

Calendar Year of Diagnosis

Reg

istra

tion

Rat

e of

Leu

kaem

ia in

the

0-4

Yea

r Age

Gro

up,

case

s pe

r mill

ion

pers

on-y

ears

Page 49: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

H-3 and C-14

• Suggestions have been made that the KiKK Study findings might be explained in terms of tritium and carbon-14 releases from nuclear reactors.from nuclear reactors.

• Again, this is inconsistent with the absence of a large impact of fallout upon childhood leukaemia incidence.

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

Page 50: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Tritium from FalloutWorldwide Average Annual Individual Effective Dose from the Ingestion of Tritium Produced in

Atmospheric Nuclear Weapons Testing, 1950-1990 (UNS CEAR, 2000)

8

10

Ave

rage

Indi

vidu

al E

ffect

ive

Dos

e, µ

Sv

0

2

4

6

1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990

Calendar Year

Ave

rage

Indi

vidu

al E

ffect

ive

Dos

e

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

Page 51: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Carbon-14 from Fallout

Worldwide Average Annual Individual Effective Dose from the Ingestion of Carbon-14 Produced in Atmospheric Nuclear Weapons Testing, 19 50-1990 (UNSCEAR, 2000)

10

12

14

Ave

rage

Indi

vidu

al E

ffect

ive

Dos

e, µ

Sv

Fallout Carbon-14

Natural Background Carbon-14

0

2

4

6

8

1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990

Calendar Year

Ave

rage

Indi

vidu

al E

ffect

ive

Dos

e

Natural Background Carbon-14

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

Page 52: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Pieces of the Jigsaw?

• Perhaps the excesses of childhood leukaemia reported near nuclear sites are just a few pieces of the jigsaw describing its geographical distribution?its geographical distribution?

• COMARE Eleventh Report finds a significantly non-uniform geographical distribution of childhood leukaemia throughout Great Britain.

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

Page 53: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Infection• Compelling epidemiological evidence

now exists for an infectious basis for most cases of childhood leukaemia.

• Raised levels of childhood leukaemia have been found following a wide have been found following a wide variety of population mixing conditions.

• It would be remarkable if relevant areas around nuclear facilities were not similarly affected in this way.

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

Page 54: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Conclusions• There is a broad consistency of results from

the epidemiological study of childhood leukaemia and exposure to ionising radiation.

• Low dose/dose-rate risks appear to be compatible with the predictions of leukaemia risk models based upon the experience of the

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

risk models based upon the experience of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors.

• Potentially important additional evidence (e.g. from studies of CT scans and natural background radiation) could be available soon.

Page 55: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

Conclusions

• Studies of childhood leukaemia near nuclear installations can only be properly understood in the context of the major causes of childhood leukaemia.causes of childhood leukaemia.

• Studies should be directed towards these major causes, and the role of infections is of primary importance in these investigations.

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011

Page 56: Childhood Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Leukaemia and Ionising Radiation Richard Wakeford Visiting Professor in Epidemiology, Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester,

FinFin

Third MELODI Workshop, Rome, 2 November 2011