Chem 4 -APIC 2014_Nexant Acrylic Acid_Final

  • View
    221

  • Download
    1

Embed Size (px)

Text of Chem 4 -APIC 2014_Nexant Acrylic Acid_Final

  • 8/11/2019 Chem 4 -APIC 2014_Nexant Acrylic Acid_Final

    1/27

    NexantThinking

    May 2014

    Dynamics of Global Acrylic Acid:

    Challenges and Opportunities

    APIC ANNUAL MEETING, Thailand

    Prepared for:

    Tiankanok Sirichayaporn

    Senior Consultant, Nexant Asia Limitedtiankanoks@nexant.com

    mailto:tiankanoks@nexant.commailto:tiankanoks@nexant.com
  • 8/11/2019 Chem 4 -APIC 2014_Nexant Acrylic Acid_Final

    2/27

    1

    Nexant business model is geared to end to end service of the complete energyvalue chain

    May 2014

    Electric Power

    Grid Management

    Distribution

    Software

    Energy Efficiency

    Demand Side

    Management

    Gas Market Analysis

    and Forecasts

    Gas Monetization

    Gas Regulation

    LNG & Gas Pipeline

    Projects

    Petroleum Refining

    Product Market

    Forecasts

    Coal to Liquids

    Gas to Liquids

    C1 Chemicals &

    Fertilizers

    Olefins

    Aromatics

    Polymers

    Inorganics

    Speciality Chemicals

    Advanced Materials

    POWER

    GAS

    CHEMICALSDOWNSTREAM OIL GREEN CHEMICALS

    RENEWABLE ENERGY

    Energy Chemicals and Clean-tech

    In-depth knowledge from Nexant

    Syngas

    Biopolymers

    Olefins

    Alcohols

    Aromatics

    Sourced from

    Biomass, Algae,

    Wastes, and

    Agricultural Sources

    Biomass

    Gasification

    Solar (Thermal & PV)

    Wind Power

    Clean Coal

    CO2Capture and

    Sequestration

    Fuel Cells &

    Hydrogen

    Geothermal

  • 8/11/2019 Chem 4 -APIC 2014_Nexant Acrylic Acid_Final

    3/27

    2

    NexantThinkingTMsuite of multiclient products offers comprehensive analytics,forecasts and insights for the energy and chemical industries

    May 2014

    www.nexantthinking.com

  • 8/11/2019 Chem 4 -APIC 2014_Nexant Acrylic Acid_Final

    4/27

    3

    Agenda

    May 2014

    Fundamental drivers in acrylic acid value chain

    Supply dynamics and the challenges in the coming years

    Emerging petroleum-based and bio-based production technologies

    and their impact on the future market

    Conclusion

  • 8/11/2019 Chem 4 -APIC 2014_Nexant Acrylic Acid_Final

    5/27

    Fundamental drivers in acrylic acid value chain

    4May 2014

  • 8/11/2019 Chem 4 -APIC 2014_Nexant Acrylic Acid_Final

    6/27

    5

    Acrylic Acid Value Chain

    May 2014

    Applications / End UsesFeedstocks

    Propylene

    Derivatives

    Crude

    Acrylic Acid

    Glacial Acrylic Acid

    Commodity

    Acrylates

    Methyl Acrylate

    Ethyl Acrylate

    Butyl Acrylate

    Polyacrylic

    Acid

    Diapers, sanitary products,

    agriculture, insulation (cable & battery)

    Detergents, pulp and paper, textiles,

    surface coatings and water treatment

    Construction ;Paints & Coatings,

    Resins, DispersionsOthers include inks, adhesives,

    sealants, pressure sensitive tapes

    Polymer modifiers, inks, adhesives,

    coatings and sealants, enamels,

    varnishes and polishes, water

    treatment and paper processing.

    SAP

    Other

    Specialty Acrylates

    Acrylic Fibre Textiles, clothing

    Alkyl acrylates

    Dialkylaminoethyl acrylates

    Hydroxyalkyl acrylates

    2-EH Acrylate

  • 8/11/2019 Chem 4 -APIC 2014_Nexant Acrylic Acid_Final

    7/27

    6

    Global acrylic acid consumption

    May 2014

    SAP is the fastest-growing derivative of acrylic acid. The sector is forecast to grow from around 30% to

    40% of global acrylic acid consumption over 2000-2030

    Acrylate ester sector has historically benefited from the move towards water-based paint and coatings,

    and strong construction and automotive sectors in developing regions

    ACRYLIC ACID DEMAND GROWTH BY APPLICATION

    (Million tons)

    Source: Nexant Source: Nexant

    Acrylates50%

    SAPs33%

    Others17%

    0 2 4

    Acrylates

    SAPs

    Others

    2000 2013 2020

    ACRYLIC ACID DEMAND BY APPLICATION (2013)

    Total Demand = 5 Million tons

  • 8/11/2019 Chem 4 -APIC 2014_Nexant Acrylic Acid_Final

    8/27

    7

    Global commodity acrylate consumption will be mainly driven by construction,automotive and packaging sectors

    May 2014

    The majority of surface coating sector is for paint & coating in construction and automotive industries.

    Adhesive sector is largely driven by pressure sensitive adhesives (PSA) for packaging sector, and too a

    lesser extent construction adhesives

    ACRYLATES DEMAND GROWTH BY APPLICATION

    (Million tons)

    Source: Nexant Source: Nexant

    Surfacecoating

    35%

    Adhesives28%

    Resin

    modifiers14%

    Others23%

    0 1 2 3

    Surfacecoating

    Adhesives

    Resinmodifiers

    Others

    2000 2013 2020

    ACRYLATES DEMAND BY APPLICATION (2013)

    Total Demand = 4 Million tons

  • 8/11/2019 Chem 4 -APIC 2014_Nexant Acrylic Acid_Final

    9/27

    8

    Global SAPs consumption

    May 2014

    Disposable baby diaper is the largest sector of SAP. Nevertheless, the demand growth is limited to

    developing countries, while the more developed regions have reached maturity

    SAP DEMAND GROWTH BY APPLICATION

    (Million tons)

    Source: Nexant Source: Nexant

    Babydiaper70%

    Adultincontinen

    ce

    13%

    Femininehygiene

    10%

    Others7%

    0 1 2 3

    Baby diaper

    Adult

    incontinence

    Femininehygiene

    Others

    2000 2013 2020

    SAP DEMAND BY APPLICATION (2013)

    Total Demand = 2 Million tons

  • 8/11/2019 Chem 4 -APIC 2014_Nexant Acrylic Acid_Final

    10/27

    9

    Adult diaper sector is the main driver in developed countries, such as theUnited States, Western Europe and Japan

    May 2014

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    North America South America Western

    Europe

    Japan Rest of Asia World

    2000 2012 2035

    Source: UN Census

    PROPORTION OF POPULATION AT AGE OVER 65 YEARS OLD

  • 8/11/2019 Chem 4 -APIC 2014_Nexant Acrylic Acid_Final

    11/27

    10

    Developing countries will be a key driver for future SAP demandthe sector isprimarily being driven by the baby diaper sector.

    May 2014

    SELECTIVE REGIONAL SAP CONSUMPTION

    0%

    5%

    10%

    0 0.5 1 1.5 2

    MarketGrowth-

    %C

    AGR2013-

    2020

    Consumption per Capita (2013), Kg/Capita

    North America

    South America

    Western

    Europe

    Asia Pacific

    Source: Nexant

  • 8/11/2019 Chem 4 -APIC 2014_Nexant Acrylic Acid_Final

    12/27

  • 8/11/2019 Chem 4 -APIC 2014_Nexant Acrylic Acid_Final

    13/27

    Supply dynamics and the challenges in the coming

    years

    12May 2014

  • 8/11/2019 Chem 4 -APIC 2014_Nexant Acrylic Acid_Final

    14/27

    13

    Supply Position of Acrylic Acid Value Chain

    May 2014

    Secondary DerivativesRaw Materials Primary Derivatives

    Propylene

    Crude

    Acrylic

    Acid Acrylic

    Esters

    Glacial

    Acrylic

    Acid

    Acrylate

    PolymersCompany

    Polyacrylic

    Acid/SAPs

    DOW

    BASF

    Arkema

    Nippon Shokubai

    Jiangsu Jurong

    LG Chem

    Fomosa

    Source: Nexant

    All leading producers are forward integrated into acrylate esters and many into SAP. Monomer shipping

    costs are relatively high and this has promoted high levels of consumption at or near to the AA unit

  • 8/11/2019 Chem 4 -APIC 2014_Nexant Acrylic Acid_Final

    15/27

    14

    More players have participated into acrylic acid market

    May 2014

    There were 25 today

    The position of Asian players has grown strongly over the past decade

    Source: Nexant Source: Nexant

    Atochem23%

    BASF21%

    Celanese17%

    Rohm &

    Haas17%

    Huels8%

    UnionCarbide

    7%

    ACRYLIC ACID PRODUCER (1990)

    Total Capacity = 1 Million tons

    Dow18%

    BASF17%

    Arkema11%Jiangsu

    Jurong8%

    NipponShokubai

    6%

    LG Chem6%

    ACRYLIC ACID PRODUCER (2013)

    Total Capacity = 6 Million tons

    Others7% Others

    34%

  • 8/11/2019 Chem 4 -APIC 2014_Nexant Acrylic Acid_Final

    16/27

    15

    Current investment wave will result in lower operating rates in the short-termbefore recovering gradually

    May 2014

    ACRYLIC ACID CAPACITY ADDITIONS ACRYLIC ACID SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE

    Source: NexantSource: Nexant

    Majority of new projects are being developed in China. Resulting in a capacity spike in 2014-2015

    Outside of Asia single investment projects are underway in South America and the Middle East

    0

    1

    2

    2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    Milliontons

    Americas EMEA Asia

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    100%

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

    Averagedoperatingrate

    Milliontons

    Consumption Capacity Operating rates

  • 8/11/2019 Chem 4 -APIC 2014_Nexant Acrylic Acid_Final

    17/27

    16

    Acrylic acids long-distance trade is minimal, unlike its derivatives acrylatesand SAPs

    May 2014

    -50

    50

    -50

    50

    -50

    50Americas EMEA Asia

    2013 2015 2020

    Source: Nexant

  • 8/11/2019 Chem 4 -APIC 2014_Nexant Acrylic Acid_Final

    18/27

    Emerging petroleum-based and bio-basedproduction technologies and their impact on